Jeremy Grantham: ‘U.S. Market Will Rally Once Again To Become A Fully-Fledged Bubble Before It Breaks’

Last week, I blogged about the latest quarterly investment letter from “crash prophet” Jeremy Grantham, the British-born investment strategist and founder/former chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (currently oversees $104 billion in client assets). While it was an interesting read, I noted that I was a little disappointed that Grantham, whose individual clients have included former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, didn’t talk about two themes he’d brought up in recent newsletters. I wrote:

Two things I’m dying to know from Mr. Grantham right now:

1. Does he still expect “the stock market to continue to march higher in the coming year, eventually sucking in retail investors and setting up a serious decline around the time of the US elections in late 2016”?

2. Does he/GMO “still believe that bubble territory for the S&P 500 is about 2250”? The S&P was really marching towards 2,250 for a while before the index went south.

Last night, I saw that Grantham penned a piece on the Barron’s website that answered those questions (for the most part). From the article:

Looking to 2016, we can agree that uncertainties are above average. But I think the global economy and the U.S. in particular will do better than the bears believe it will because they appear to underestimate the slow-burning but huge positive of much-reduced resource prices in the U.S. and the availability of capacity both in labor and machinery. So even though I believe our trend line growth capability is only 1.5%, our spare capacity and lower input prices make 2.5% quite attainable for this year. And growth at this level would make a major market break unlikely. As discussed elsewhere, this situation feels at worst like an ordinary bear market lasting a few months and not like a major collapse. That, I think, will come later after the final ingredients of a major bubble fall into place

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Concerning the U.S. stock market, Grantham wrote:

The U.S. equity market, although not in bubble territory, is very overpriced (+50% to 60%) and the outlook for fixed income is dismal… I still believe that, with the help of the Fed and its allies, the U.S. market will rally once again to become a fully-fledged bubble before it breaks. That is, after all, the logical outcome of a Fed policy that stimulates and overestimates some more until, finally, some strut in the complicated economic structure snaps. Good luck in 2016…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In the section entitled “U.S. equity bubble update,” he added:

On the evaluation front, the market is not quite expensive enough to deserve the bubble title. We at GMO have defined a bubble as a 2-standard-deviation event (2-sigma). We believe that all great investment bubbles reached that level and market events that fell short of 2-sigma did not feel like the real thing. (In our view, 2008 was preceded by an unprecedented U.S. housing bubble – a 3-sigma event.)

Today a 2-sigma U.S. equity market would be at or around 2300 on the S&P, requiring a rally of over 20%; even from the previous record daily high it would have required an 8% rally…

On the more touchy-feely level of psychological and technical measures, the U.S. market came closer to bubble status but, still, I think, no cigar

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

So to answer my two questions from last week:

1. Grantham believes U.S. stocks will rally once again to become a bubble (no mention of “a serious decline around the time of the US elections in late 2016” though).

2. He also believes bubble-territory for the S&P 500 is no longer 2,250, but a tad higher “at or around 2,300.”

As highlighted at the bottom of the “Crash Prophets” page, Jeremy Grantham has an impressive track record with his financial forecasts:

• In 1982, said the U.S. stock market was ripe for a “major rally.” That year was the beginning of the longest bull run ever.
• In 1989, called the top of the Japanese bubble economy
• In 1991, predicted the resurgence of U.S. large cap stocks
• In 2000, correctly called the rallies in U.S. small cap and value stocks
• In January 2000, warned of an impending crash in technology stocks, which took place two months later
• Saw the 2008 global financial crisis coming. In April 2007, said we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

As such, it’s difficult to dismiss this latest one.

Check out Grantham’s piece on Barron’s website here if you have time. I only scratched the surface, and it’s an insightful read.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Citi: ‘The World Appears To Be Trapped In A Circular Reference Death Spiral’

Citi (Citigroup Inc.), the New York City-based investment banking and financial services corporation, hasn’t exactly been a torchbearer of good economic news lately. Back on December 1, 2015, Citi strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook:

The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Citi’s 2016 recession probability call was the most bearish of several recent ones I pointed out last week:

• Janet Yellen- 10%
• Societe Generale- 10% and rising
• CNNMoney survey of economists- 18%
• Bloomberg survey economists- 19%
• Morgan Stanley- 20% in a worst-case scenario
• Bank of America/Merrill Lynch- 20%
• Citi- 65%

And Citi struck again today. Katy Barnato reported over on the CNBC website this morning:

The global economy seems trapped in a “death spiral” that could lead to further weakness in oil prices, recession and a serious equity bear market, Citi strategists have warned…

“The world appears to be trapped in a circular reference death spiral,” Citi strategists led by Jonathan Stubbs said in a report on Thursday.

“Stronger U.S. dollar, weaker oil/commodity prices, weaker world trade/petrodollar liquidity, weaker EM (and global growth)… and repeat. Ad infinitum, this would lead to Oilmageddon, a ‘significant and synchronized’ global recession and a proper modern-day equity bear market.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

All hope is not lost though, said Stubbs. Head on over to Barnato’s article here to read all about it.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

McGeever, Jamie. “CITI: There’s a 65% probability the US goes into recession next year.” Reuters. 2 Dec. 2015. (http://www.businessinsider.com/r-watch-for-us-recession-zero-interest-rates-in-china-next-year-citi-says-2015-12). 5 Feb. 2016.

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German Intelligence Chief: ‘Repeatedly Seen That Terrorists… Have Slipped In Camouflaged Or Disguised As Refugees’

Taking advantage of economic migrants flooding into Europe, more terrorists may be slipping (back) into Western Europe these days. Caroline Copley reported on the Reuters website earlier today:

Islamic State militants have slipped into Europe disguised as refugees, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) said on Friday, a day after security forces thwarted a potential IS attack in Berlin.

Hans-Georg Maassen said the terrorist attacks in Paris last November had shown that Islamic State was deliberately planting terrorists among the refugees flowing into Europe.

“Then we have repeatedly seen that terrorists … have slipped in camouflaged or disguised as refugees. This is a fact that the security agencies are facing,” Maassen told ZDF television.

“We are trying to recognize and identify whether there are still more IS fighters or terrorists from IS that have slipped in,” he added…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Good luck with that. Yesterday, Lori Hinnant wrote on the Associated Press website:

The Belgian who led the Nov. 13 attacks on Paris bragged that he slipped into France with a group of 90 extremists from Europe and the Middle East, according to testimony from the woman who tipped police to his location.

In an interview aired Thursday by RMC television and confirmed by her lawyer, the woman identified only as Sonia… was with [Abdelhamid] Abaaoud’s female cousin on Nov. 15 when the younger woman got a call from a Belgian number. It was Abaaoud, asking for a hideout.

The two women drove to a deserted industrial road outside Paris and Abaaoud came out of a bush. It was at that moment she realized who he was, according to her testimony. What followed is Abaaoud’s only known conversation about the attacks and their aftermath…

She asked him whether he had come in with Syrian refugees and he told her he came in a group without any documents. “There are Syrians, Iraqis, French, Germans, British. We came in a group of 90 and we’re a little bit everywhere around Paris.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“French, Germans, British”

Great. Welcome home, right?

Just last Friday, I blogged about new warnings from Europol and the Russian National Anti-Terrorist Committee concerning the Islamic State preparing new terrorist attacks in that region of the world.

As for the United States? All eyes are on Super Bowl 50. Geneva Sands reported on the ABC News website yesterday:

The FBI and DHS said they have no information to indicate a specific, credible threat to the game or its surrounding events, according to a Joint Special Event Threat Assessment.

However, authorities are concerned about terrorists’ interest in targeting crowded venues, as well as lone wolf attackers and homegrown extremists…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Here’s to an “uneventful” Super Bowl Sunday…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Copley, Caroline. “German spy agency says ISIS sending fighters disguised as refugees.” Reuters. 5 Feb. 2016. (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-security-idUSKCN0VE0XL). 5 Feb. 2016.

Hinnant, Lori. “Paris Attack Leader Said He Slipped In With 90 Extremists.” Associated Press. 4 Feb. 2016. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_PARIS_ATTACKS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-04-07-52-04). 5 Feb. 2016.

Sands, Geneva. “Law Enforcement On High Alert for Super Bowl 50.” ABC News. 4 Feb. 2016. (http://abcnews.go.com/US/law-enforcement-high-alert-super-bowl-50/story?id=36698694). 4 Feb. 2016.

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The Survival Podcast’s Jack Spirko: ‘2016 Is Going To Be A Year That We Officially Are In A Recession’

Plenty of recession talk going around these days.

I recently listened to an episode of The Survival Podcast (named a “Resource Of The Week” back in March 2011) that grabbed my attention. Modern survivalist and host Jack Spirko warned listeners in episode 1711 (January 18, 2016), “Listener Feedback- Political Speculation Edition”:

I think that all the things that we talk about every day are things that you really might need to start considering doing more of. Providing as much as you can of your own food to cut your costs. Because here’s what coming with all this. A recession. A recession. 2016 is going to be a year that we officially are in a recession. The global indicators are such that you can’t really believe it’s not going to happen.

Back in episode 1608 (July 21, 2015), Spirko also talked about a coming economic downturn and advised:

We need to, I think at this point, assess our preps for hard financial times, more than anything else right now. I’m not talking about economic collapse, I’m talking about economic struggle. Everybody’s waiting for economic collapse, no one understands we’re standing in the middle of it. We’re standing in the middle of it…

Buck up your preps guys. Get ready for tougher times ahead…

The United States economy does not have to collapse for your personal economy to collapse. Nine million people found that out the hard way last time. Be prepared this time. Be prepared. Prepare to feed yourself, clothe yourself, take care of yourself, provide for your own security. Start thinking about the efficiencies of your energy usage, and get very, very diverse with your skill set, your knowledge, your ability to earn income. That’s how you prepare for what’s coming.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Thursday, February 4th, 2016 Energy, Food, Income, Preparedness, Recession, Security No Comments

Peter Schiff: ‘Silver Might Even Be A Better Buy Than Gold’

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, just published a new entry to his Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast vlog on YouTube.com. From earlier today:

As long as we have the strength of the dollar, we can continue to borrow money to pay for imports. We can continue to go deeper and deeper into debt. But the minute the illusion runs crashing into reality, and people recognize the situation that we’re in. That we didn’t have a legitimate recovery. That we just had a bubble. And rather than higher interest rates and a real recovery, we’re back in recession. And the Fed is going to try its hardest to blow more air into this bubble. It is not going to work. And this collapse in the dollar today is just the beginning. The dollar has a long way to fall. Not only does it have to reverse all its ill-gotten gains, but it has a long way to go beyond that. Because the problems for the dollar, the fundamentals for the dollar, have gotten worse the entire time the dollar was rallying. And it’s this phony rally in the dollar, it’s this false belief in a higher dollar and higher interest rates, that have wreaked havoc with the emerging markets, with emerging market currencies, with commodities. And all of these markets are going to be able to breathe a huge sigh of relief as the Fed backs away from these rate hikes and the dollar begins to tank. But probably the biggest beneficiary of the Fed’s new easing, this new easing cycle that I think is about to begin, is going to be gold. Gold has fallen for the last few years based on this false belief that everything is great, and we’re going to have a return to normalcy, and the Fed is going to shrink its balance sheet. Nothing could be further from the truth. The balance sheet is about to blow up. We’re going to go up to $10 trillion. The national debt just surpassed $19 trillion officially. It’s going to be $20 trillion by the time Barack Obama leaves office- maybe more. He’s doubled the national debt. The next president will have to double it again in order to keep this house of cards from collapsing. I think it’s impossible to finance- that type of growth in debt. But that’s what this bubble economy needs. Because all of our GDP grows based on debt. It’s not real economic growth. It’s just consumption that’s borrowed. And you need to borrow more and more money to get less and less GDP growth. And we’ve run to the point where we can’t do it anymore. The world is not going to continue to give us a pass. And so gold prices, I think, are going to take off. I think the correction from this long-term bull market is over. And I think gold is going to make new highs. And of course if gold is going to make new highs, so is silver. And so silver might even be a better buy than gold because silver corrected a lot more during the correction. And so it has a lot more lost ground to make up for.


“Fed Blinks: Tightening Financial Conditions Will Derail Rate Hike Expectations”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Project Prepper, Part 40: 2016 Recap

Tonight I’m reintroducing the “Project Prepper” series of posts on Survival And Prosperity. And since it’s been some time since my last post, I’m going to do a recap this evening about what this series of posts is all about for those who don’t already know. On October 24, 2012, I wrote:

Back in early 2007, I decided to launch a blog that warned anyone who would listen of a coming U.S. financial crash.

By 2010, many Americans had tasted the type of carnage I predicted three years earlier. And it was at this time I decided to take my blogging in a new direction, from simply warning about the coming storm to providing information and possible solutions for coming out on the other side of the maelstrom in decent shape.

For almost two years on Survival And Prosperity, I’ve addressed that information component. As I see it, the writing is on the wall concerning where our economy and larger financial system is headed. As such, it’s time to really focus on potential solutions- those things that might help protect and grow self and wealth in these uncertain times and down the road.

Enter “Project Prepper.”

Once in a while I blog about preppers/survivalists, and as a result, I’m often mistaken for one. The truth is, I’m not a “modern survivalist.” I’m just an independent researcher and blogger currently focusing on economics, finance, investing, and personal safety.

That being said, as a result of my research and this blog, I’m now aware of the myriad of man-made and naturally-occurring threats to my life and lifestyle (and those of my loved ones), and think it’s probably wise to acquaint myself more with “prepping” via a sustained “hands-on” program of learning and doing, which I’ll call “Project Prepper.”

Through a series of posts on this blog which I suspect should last for quite some time (years?), I’ll be able to share my preparedness experiences with you.

By doing this, I’ll also be able to make more progress in providing readers of this blog those possible solutions I talked about earlier in the post.

Will I end up being a “prepper” at the end of it all? Who knows? If anything, I should be able to glean a good deal of useful knowledge from this venture.

Knowledge which I hope to share with you…

More next week as I talk about where “Project Prepper” currently stands after writing the above a little over three years ago.

2015 Test Vegetable Garden

2015 Test Vegetable Garden

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, February 3rd, 2016 Preparedness, Project Prepper No Comments

Signs Of The Time, Part 92

To reintroduce this special series of posts on Survival And Prosperity, I’ve got a two-fer for readers this week.

When I opened up my Internet service provider’s home page last Friday, one of the featured articles that day included a graphic of a man grasping his head in frustration with the following text below it:

“What to do if your 401(k) is tanking”

Something tells me this piece received a lot of views.

Earlier tonight I headed on over to MarketWatch.com where the main headline on their homepage screamed in big, bold letters:

“Recession risks warn of ‘severe’ drop in market”

Clicking on the link the article had this included with it:

“Most S&P 500 stocks could fall 50% or more if a ‘worst-case’ recession unfolds”

Definitely not the typical fare served up by MarketWatch, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

“Uncertain Times” indeed.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Peter Schiff Predicts ‘Negative Interest Rates Before The Election Because We’re Going To Be In A Serious Recession’

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, is sounding the alarm again these days. Big time. Business Insider’s Bob Bryan reported Friday:

The CEO and chief global strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, and noted perma-bear, said that serious economic destruction is just a few months away.

“I think the Fed is going to have negative interest rates before the election because we’re going to be in a serious recession,” Schiff told Business Insider on Friday.

In fact, Schiff said that we may already be in recession and this one is going to be a doozy.

“We’re in worse shape now than we were in 2007,” he said…

“We’re headed for a real economic collapse,” Schiff said, “the order of magnitude of which will be much greater than 2008’s crash.”

No way am I going to steal Bryan’s thunder on this. Head on over to the Business Insider website here for the full story.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, February 1st, 2016 Crash Prophets, Interest Rates, Recession No Comments

Jim Rogers Predicts Gold ‘Ending In A Bubble Maybe Three Or Four Years From Now’

I read an insightful article the other day about well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers on Agrimoney.com. In it, Mike Verdin shared what Rogers, the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund, thinks about certain investments opportunities. The Singapore-based investor is “pessimistic about stocks for the next couple of years,” and is still bullish on agriculture. But it’s what Rogers, who predicted the commodities rally that began in 1999, said about gold and crude oil that I found most interesting. From the January 28, 2016, piece:

He foresees a rally in gold “ending in a bubble maybe three or four years from now”.

And oil prices around $30 a barrel are unsustainable.

“People cannot explore, drill at $30 a barrel” and expect a satisfactory return on their investment.

And with old wells being pulled offline, “there is not going to be any oil” unless higher values make new sources viable.

He compares current weakness in commodity prices to that in shares during their late-20th century bull run.

“In the 1980s and 1990s, stocks went down 40-80%, and people said ‘that’s the end of that’.

“But it was not the end. We have seen before in other asset classes” the reversal in commodities he believes will prove short-term…

Good stuff, which you can read all about on Agrimoney.com here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Marc Faber: ‘The Reality Is That We’re Already Now Almost In A Recession’

The “crash prophets” are running at full-throttle these days. Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the CNBC TV show Fast Money last Monday, and in addition to predicting “volatility will stay very high” in the stock market, he warned viewers:

The U.S. market has been holding up much better than other markets and now it’s adjusting to reality, and the reality is that we’re already now almost in a recession. We’re in an industrial recession… But of course media people and financial people- they don’t feel the recession yet because they’re in the wonderful service economy that is booming. But ordinary people are not booming, that I assure you.


“The world according to Faber”
CNBC Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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