Should U.S. Be Worried About Terrorist Attacks By Libya?

With Operation Odyssey Dawn underway in Libya, should the United States be concerned about that North African state’s intelligence arm launching terrorist attacks against American interests abroad- or even against the U.S. itself? Libyan intelligence has been linked to a number of high-profile terrorist attacks in recent decades, including the April 5, 1986, bombing of a Berlin discotheque that killed and wounded a number of U.S. servicemen, and the infamous December 21, 1988, bombing that brought down Pan-Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing 190 Americans. According to a high-ranking U.S. counterterrorism official before Muammar Gaddafi’s regime was attacked, the threat of state-sponsored terrorism from Libya is real. The New York Times’ Eric Schmitt wrote on March 18:

The United States is bracing for possible Libyan-backed terrorist attacks, President Obama’s top counterterrorism official said on Friday.

The official, John O. Brennan, said that the military attacks on civilians ordered in recent days by Libya’s leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, coupled with his track record as a sponsor of terrorism, had heightened worries within the administration as an international coalition threatens military action against Libya.

Asked if American officials feared whether Colonel Qaddafi could open a new terrorism front, Mr. Brennan said: “Qaddafi has the penchant to do things of a very concerning nature. We have to anticipate and be prepared for things he might try to do to flout the will of the international community.”

Among the threats the United States is focusing on is Libya’s stockpile of deadly mustard gas, he said.

Since Operation Odyssey Dawn commenced last weekend, American intelligence is watching closely for potential terrorist activity coming from Libya. The Wall Street Journal’s Adam Entous wrote Monday:

U.S. intelligence agencies are watching for signs that a desperate Col. Moammar Gadhafi, under attack from a coalition air assault, could resort to acts of terrorism against Western targets.

Col. Gadhafi has extensive stockpiles of mustard gas and high explosives at his disposal that could be used in attacks against targets in Europe or against his own people. He also has a documented history of orchestrating strikes against civilians and other world leaders.

“U.S. officials are keeping an eye on that possibility,” one U.S. official said.

So far, counterterrorism officials in the U.S. and Europe believe there is a low probability of Col. Gadhafi returning to terrorism in the near term because he is focused for now on maintaining his hold on power during Western air strikes.

“We haven’t seen any intelligence yet” that he is actively reestablishing his terrorism ties or plotting attacks outside Libya, a senior U.S. counterterrorism official said. Another U.S. official called the likelihood “low,” but added: “That being said, a madman’s a madman.”

One more thing to consider is Libya’s sizeable oil wealth. While U.S. intelligence agencies may be focusing on their counterparts in the North African nation, it was suggested yesterday on FOX News’ Special Report that proceeds from Libyan oil sales could be funneled to other groups to initiate a terror campaign directed against U.S. interests.

Sources:

Schmitt, Eric. “American Official Warns That Qaddafi May Lash Out With New Terrorist Attacks.” New York Times. 18 Mar. 2011. (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/19/world/africa/19terror.htm). 23 Mar. 2011.

Entous, Adam. “U.S. Eyes Gadhafi Terror Response.” Wall Street Journal. 21 Mar. 2011. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703292304576212893002664106.html). 23 Mar. 2011.