Vanguard Founder John Bogle Predicts 4 Percent Average Annual Return For U.S. Stocks Over Next Decade

Back when I ran Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street,” I used to talk about John “Jack” Bogle, the founder of The Vanguard Group and President of Vanguard’s Bogle Financial Markets Research Center, every once in a while. The reason I blogged about Bogle was that he would warn about the global economic crisis that became full-blown by autumn of 2008 when the event didn’t even register on the radar of most other financial types.

Bogle is back in the news these days with a new forecast of how U.S. stocks will do over the next decade. John Coumarianos reported on the MarketWatch website last Thursday:

Bogle, the legendary founder of mutual-fund giant Vanguard Group, and a staunch defender of index funds, said in a recent interview with Morningstar’s personal finance editor Christine Benz that U.S. stocks over the next decade will return just 4% on average annually

This is a sharp departure from Bogle’s 7% annualized forecast two years ago in an interview with MarketWatch’s Chuck Jaffe . In the MarketWatch interview, Bogle didn’t forecast the market’s P/E multiple contracting, and that’s the difference between his 2013 view and this more recent view.

In this new forecast, Bogle joins the ranks of notable value investors and market observers Jeremy Grantham, Robert Arnott, and Robert Shiller, whose dim views of stock valuations and future returns are well-documented

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Coumarianos does a good job breaking down in detail how Bogle arrived at this new forecast for U.S. equities over the next 10 years, which you can read here on the MarketWatch website.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Tuesday, November 10th, 2015 Crash Prophets, Investing, Stocks

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Survival And Prosperity
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Christopher E. Hill, Editor

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