Jim Rickards: ‘We’re Going To Go Into A Recession Or The Stock Market Is Going To Have A Very Severe Correction’

Marc Faber isn’t the only “crash prophet” who realizes the financial environment U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could inherit is significantly different than what Ronald Reagan encountered in 1981. Back on December 5 I blogged about James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author, who was on RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) the prior week informing listeners of the following:

Less regulation, lower taxes, and a lot more infrastructure spending. This was Ronald Reagan’s playbook. This is what Ronald Reagan did in 1981 with a lot of success. But there are big differences, reasons to believe Trump will not be as successful. Namely because when Reagan came in, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio- the amount of debt relative to our economy- was 35 percent. Today it’s almost 105 percent. Reagan had inflation of 20 percent. Trump has it close to zero. In other words, Reagan had a lot of tailwinds– inflation had to come down, interest rates had to come down, he had fiscal space to run up the debt. Trump has headwinds

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last Tuesday, Rickards appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one Martin. I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

CNBC anchor Martin Soong asked his guest, “What is it going to take to cause these two outcomes- what’s the trigger going to be?” Rickards replied:

First of all, it’s already happening. There’s basically a head-long collision coming between perception and reality. So what’s the perception? The market’s rising on the Trump reflation trade. So, Trump wants to cut taxes. Steve Bannon’s talking to his advisors about a trillion dollars of infrastructure spending, cutting regulations. So all these things are viewed to be highly stimulative. So that’s why the market’s going up… But with the Fed, they’re thinking of two things. Number one, they believe in the Phillips Curve… With unemployment at 4.6 percent and that kind of stimulus coming, they know monetary policy acts with a lag- they want to get out ahead of inflation. So they’re on track to raise rates. By the way, they want to raise them anyway independent of this because they’ve got to raise them so they can cut them in the next recession. So the Fed’s on track to raise. The market expects stimulus. But here’s the point. The stimulus is not going to come. Congress has already said tax cuts have to be revenue neutral- that’s going to take away the stimulative effect. They’re going to balk at more spending. We have $20 trillion of debt. A 104 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. So we’re not going to get this trillion dollars of spending. And we’re in the eighth year of an expansion Martin. Keynesian stimulus- if it works at all, it works at the beginning of an expansion or in a recession. Not after 8 years. You don’t get much bang for the buck.


“Fed to reverse course by year-end: Expert”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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