The Economist Magazine Investigates Preppers

“Some Americans find survivalists sinister. After Adam Lanza shot 26 people in a school in Newtown, Connecticut in 2012, the media made much of the fact that his mother was a gun-stockpiling prepper. Yet there is no evidence that preppers in general are more dangerous than their compatriots. On the contrary, when natural disasters strike, it is useful to have neighbours who know how to stormproof a house and have bandages to spare.”

-The Economist website, December 17, 2014

Late this morning, I stumbled on an article on The Economist website about preppers. I just finished reading “Preparing for the apocalypse: I will survive,” and thought I’d blog about it a little. The author (couldn’t find a name attached with the piece for some reason) did a pretty good job writing about preppers/survivalists, not falling victim to the usual stereotypes/generalizing echoed in a comment on the article. From “walrusandthecarpenter”:

Preppers are people who are unhappy with their life and can’t wait for the end of the world to come and the tables to turn. They are excited for it to happen.

Me? I like my smartphone. I have a first aid kit though.

“I like my smartphone.” What a goof.

Like I was saying, the author did a pretty good job (points deducted for trying to link those Westboro folks to preppers) with the material. I found what James Wesley, Rawles of SurvivalBlog.com-fame had to say particularly interesting. From the article:

So how might TEOTWAWKI come about? The biggest threat, says Mr Rawles, is a huge solar flare. The last big one, in 1859, known as the “Carrington Event”, disabled telegraph lines. A similar disaster today would “fry the circuitry” of electronic devices and take out the power grid “from end to end”. It would take years to reactivate. Perhaps 60% of the American population could die, predicts Mr Rawles…

I’ve seen some put that die-off figure at 90 percent.

There was also this about present-day preppers:

Survivalists vary politically—just as they are dispersed geographically—and their views colour their apocalyptic imaginings. Many are conservatives, worried about crime, terrorism and hyperinflation and sure that the state cannot be relied upon to protect ordinary citizens. But a fair number are environmentalists, convinced that the planet can only take so much abuse before it becomes uninhabitable. The movement is broad enough to encompass anyone who suspects that disaster is looming, for any reason. It used to be mostly “Bible-believing Christian conservatives”, says Mr Rawles, “But now we have a lot of alfalfa-munching Birkenstock-wearing leftists.” He adds: “The more the better.”

One more reason for me not to bash specific political ideologies/parties- except when they really ask for it, of course.

(Editor’s note: Any former readers of Boom2Bust.com out there remember when I used to savage “Dubya” and Hank Paulson? Thinking of that reminds me this giant economic mess belongs to both sides of the political aisle.)

Jason Charles, a New York firefighter of Doomsday Preppers-fame (blogged about here), is also featured in the piece.

You can read the well-written article in its entirety on The Economist website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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FEMA Fact Sheet: Extreme Space Weather Could Mean Blackouts For More Than 130 Million Americans

Ever since I first mentioned coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, while blogging about the Doomsday Preppers TV pilot back in August 2011, I’ve witnessed an ongoing debate over the impact of such severe space weather originating from the Sun. Now adding their two cents is the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

On the website abouthomelandsecurity.com, there’s a section entitled “Survive Space Weather.” On that web page is a fact sheet from FEMA for the document entitled Federal Interagency Response Plan- Space Weather 2012. According to the people behind that site, FEMA wouldn’t release the actual plan to them, but they were able to secure that fact sheet earlier this month via the Freedom of Information Act. And from that document:

NOAA in their 2010 Strategic Plan reference a study conducted by two well-known researchers in the field, John Kappenman and William Radasky, who conducted considerable research on the resiliency of the U.S. electric grid. The study cites in NOAA’s Strategic Plan was done under the auspices of the National Research Council and published in their report, “Severe Space Weather Events” 2008.

According to the Kappenman and Radasky studies, they find that a future extreme space weather event, similar to the great Magnetic Storm of May 1921, could result in large scale blackouts affecting more than 130 million in the U.S. An intense geomagnetic storm will place more than 300 large extra-high-voltage transformers at risk of failure or permanent damage, likely requiring a prolonged recovery period with long-term shortages of electric power to the affected areas.

The affected areas in Kappenman/Radasky studies include most of the states east of the Mississippi River as well as most of the states in the Pacific Northwest…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The fact sheet went on to note that others disagree with the conclusions of Kappenman and Radasky regarding the severity of the impact from an extreme space weather event. However, the FEMA Planning Division did state:

There does appear to be general agreement among the experts that extreme geomagnetic storms could have significantly damaging impacts on the U.S. electric grid.

An informative read from FEMA and brought to you by the folks over at abouthomelandsecurity.com here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Jim Rogers: Buy China, Japan, Russia, Agriculture

Last Thursday, I talked about a recent interview I listened to of well-known investor Jim Rogers. Robert Williams, the founder of the Baltimore, Maryland-based investment research/market commentary service Wall Street Daily, was asking the questions.

Apparently, I didn’t hear the entire exchange between the two. Williams got the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund to share with listeners what stocks he’s buying/intends to buy these days. From the Wall Street Daily website last Friday:

WILLIAMS: Do you have confidence in the U.S. stock market?
ROGERS: Well Bob, the U.S. stock market is making an all-time high. As you know, it’s up more highs this year than any year since 1929. That’s not a bottom. I’d rather buy – I’m buying shares in other markets around the world. I mentioned Russia… China, I bought more Chinese shares yesterday… Japan, I want to buy some more if I get time off the phone to buy more Japanese shares. You know the Chinese and Japanese markets are down 60% from their all-time highs. America’s making all-time highs as it did in 1929. I don’t know if these other markets are better, but I know buying low and selling high often turns out to be right.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

China, Japan, Russia. Check.

And agriculture.

On November 25, Jim Rogers appeared on the Bloomberg Television show Countdown. Host Mark Barton noted the chairman of Rogers Holdings is now an independent director of PhosAgro, Europe’s biggest phosphate fertilizer maker. Rogers shared with viewers:

So I started investing in Russia. I found this company. I’m bullish on agriculture. I’m bullish on these guys. They’re young, smart people. So here I am.

When asked what else he was bullish on in Russia, Rogers said:

I’ve been buying shares of the Moscow Stock Exchange… The easy way is the index, so I bought the ETF, as well. There are various ways to play Russia. Russia’s hated. In my view, wrongly so. And I hope, that all this is going to pass and I’ll make a lot of money.

On China, the Singapore-based investor noted:

I’m buying shares in China… Since the economic plenum of November of 2013- you know the Chinese said, “These are the areas of the economy we’re going to emphasize.” Mark, if the government is going to put a lot of money into those areas, I am too. They’ve got more money than I do. They’re smarter than I am. So I’m investing with them.

When pressed about other areas he was investing in, Rogers pointed out:

The markets that I have been investing in this year- new things- are Japan, Russia, China, agriculture. That’s where I’ve been putting my- those are all depressed markets. Why would you buy the U.S. at an all-time high, when you can buy Japan 60 percent below its all-time high, or China, 60 percent below its all-time high?

He added the following about Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe and “Abenomics”:

He’s going to ruin Japan. But in the next two or three years, I hope he’s going to make me a lot of money. And the investment community. He’s making stocks go up.


YouTube Video

You can listen/read (transcript provided) to the rest of that Rogers interview by Robert Williams on the Wall Street Daily website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Chicago, New York City Cops Talk ‘De-Policing,’ ‘Blue Flu’

“In Oklahoma City, after the terrible bombing, Americans were wearing a T-shirt- I’ve got a copy of it here that was given to me- and I’d never seen this before. But this T-shirt shows all the different things that federal law enforcement officials do and mentions all the different agencies and has the following quote on it:

A society that makes war against its police had better learn to make friends with criminals.

That’s a fact.”

-Former U.S. President Bill Clinton, in a July 20, 1995, meeting with federal law enforcement

I’ve been following the protests, riots, and other activity related to the deaths of Michael Brown and Eric Garner. And considering the anti-police sentiment that’s arisen and being stoked by certain politicians, the mainstream media, anarchists, and other agenda-driven parties, I was wondering how long it would take before someone in law enforcement uttered the following. From the popular Chicago police blog Second City Cop early Sunday morning:

We’re about to see a nationwide “de-policing” shortly.

De-policing. A situation where law enforcement activities are unofficially curtailed.

Comments on that Sunday post lent support to such action:

“De-Policing”, hey, I’m all for it! Give the people/folks what they want, maybe then they will be happy!

Essentially de-policing is the solution to all of this nonsense but it must be a concerted effort by all the police and not just one municipality. That will wake bitch slap the media and politicians into realizing what the consequences are of falsely accusing the police of these stupid excessive force accusations. NYPD did it right by telling the jack-off mayor he is persona non grata. For starters that should be done to mayor tiny dancer, libtard Dick Durbin, jack-off soon to be out of a job Holder and a host of others.

Why are we waiting for de-policing to happen? Start right now, answer all calls and do paper. No more rushing to a man with a gun, burglary in progress, person shot. Take your time and get there safely, take down all information. When the detectives get there they can suspend the case until the offender turns himself in and proceed with paper work. Not charged unless they confess, don’t bother calling the useless Felony Review or asa Office. Sorry, take it slowly, no more racing around for me on jobs. Gotta go, I feel the flu coming on. Take care of those that mean the most to you!

There was also talk of law enforcement officers coming down with the “blue flu” on that Second City Cop post. In New York City, the flu is also known as a “sick out”- which is what a number of cops out in the “Big Apple” are calling for as the anti-police protests carry on. From Thee RANT Forums (“New York City Cops speaking their minds”) website, under “Sick out New Years Eve”:

It’s been said many times now it has to be done! Bratton sold you all out and the Mayor hates your guts. How many Captains and above on the job 700? let them work the detail on New Years. If everyone goes sick this city will be at a fughing standstill! It needs to be done folks to give everyone a much needed reality check. I’m sure the job has a contingency plan in place where everyone who goes sick will have to report to the Police Academy. How many Surgeons do we have? What could they do? It needs to be done! It will cost 2 days pay perhaps but would be well worth it.

Again, commenters lent support to such activity:

The city and the public need a reality check. Can u imagine what would happen in Manhattan alone. A lot of robbed beat up white-boys.

“De-policing,” “Blue flu,” “Sick out.” Personally, I don’t see any of this happening on a large scale just yet. The present animosity being directed at the police isn’t coming from the majority of citizens (despite what the MSM would like you to think), and I believe most LEOs realize this.

However, as America’s finances continue to deteriorate going forward, I can see such work slowdowns and stoppages occurring with law enforcement. Disputes over wages, pensions, working conditions are likely flashpoints.

If the coming financial crash ever gets as ugly as what’s happened in the once-prospering South American country of Argentina, then perhaps we might see incidents like what took place there last year around this time. From the BBC website on December 10, 2013:

At least five people have been killed as looting spreads through Argentina.

Hundreds have been injured as people took advantage of a police strike to rob shops and homes.

Police have refused to go on patrol until their demands for a salary rise are met.

Their move follows a police walkout in Cordoba province last week which also led to lootings, and which was settled after the governor almost doubled officers’ pay…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Looting rife in Argentine city of Cordoba as police take strike action”
YouTube Video

On the third-ever day of this blog (November 24, 2010), I shared the following with readers (not sure I had any at that time though). I think it bears repeating here. I wrote:

This last thought about the individual being ultimately responsible for their own personal protection is hammered home by John S. Farnam, a long-time defensive firearms instructor and deputy sheriff (training officer) in the Park County, Colorado, Sheriff’s Office. In The Farnam Method of Defensive Shotgun and Rifle Shooting, the founder and president of Defense Training International wrote:

It is said by enlightened social scientists, “If it rained twenty-dollar bills every Monday morning, there would still be people begging for their dinner ever Monday evening!” The same is true with criminals. No matter how “civilized” or indulgent our society becomes, there will always be criminals. And, the more foolishly dependent we all become upon governmental institutions as the only means of preserving civil order, the more dubious our continued existence becomes, and the more quickly order will disintegrate when our societal underpinnings are crippled or even imperiled. When citizens become additively dependent on an eleemosynary and paternal government to do for them what they could be, and, of right, ought to be, doing for themselves, that civilization’s days are surely numbered. Never forget, regardless of how politically incorrect it may sound to the uninformed, your personal security is always your responsibility, and yours alone!

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

SCC. “NYPD Takes A Stand.” Second City Cop. 14 Dec. 2014. (http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/2014/12/nypd-takes-stand.html). 15 Dec. 2014.

“Deadly Argentina looting spreads as police go on strike.” BBC. 10 Dec. 2013. (http://survivalandprosperity.com/2010/11/24/putting-the-self-back-into-defense/). 16 Dec. 2014.

Farnam, John S. The Farnam Method of Defensive Shotgun and Rifle Shooting. Boulder: DTI Publications, 1997.

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Marc Faber: Young Americans Will Earn Less, Have Less Wealth Than Their Parents

I wrote on Survival And Prosperity a couple years ago:

Back in 2006 when I was working at a suburban fire department, a battalion chief came into my office, saw the local paper on my desk, and asked, “Did you read that piece about how kids these days might be the first generation who won’t be better off than their parents?” I replied, “Yeah, it was depressing.” The fire officer confided, “That stuff scares me. I’m worried they might be right about that.” I’d be concerned too, especially if I were the parent of a couple of young kids like this chief was.

Fast forward almost nine years after that discussion took place. Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was interviewed by Barron’s last week. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked with editor Jack Otter about a number of financial topics, including how younger people in Western societies will be less well-off than their parents. From their exchange:

OTTER: You always find new ways to depress me. And today you told me that for the first time in 200 years of history, we will bequeath to our children less wealth than their parents had.
FABER: Yes. I meant that with respect to Western societies and Japan, where essentially the younger people, today’s generation, will earn less than their parents. And they will have less wealth than their parents, inflation-adjusted, because we will have wealth taxes, we’ll have more estate taxes, and we have essentially declining real median incomes in the Western world and Japan. But the good news is that we have essentially have in the countries that opened up post-breakdown of the socialist, communist ideology- China, Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and so forth, and India, of course- we have entire generations that will earn much more and have a much better standard of living than their parents had.

On India, “Doctor Doom”- as the financial media likes to call him- thinks that India’s stock market could rise by 15 percent in 2015.


“Dr. Doom Offers 2 Stocks Picks, But Gloomy Outlook”
Barron’s Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Signs Of The Time, Part 77

Washington and the Fed are probably in a celebratory mood this weekend after hearing about the following. From Rodrigo Campos over at Reuters.com Friday:

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment for this month came in at 93.8, the highest reading since January 2007

The survey’s gauge of consumer expectations rose to 86.1 from 79.9, also the highest since January 2007, and beating the 80.5 forecast.

The survey’s barometer of current economic conditions rose to 105.7 from 102.7 and above the 101.4 forecast. It was the highest level since February 2007

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

January 2007. February 2007. We all know what happened a year later, right?

And last I checked, we’re getting kind of long in the tooth (historically) as it concerns the expansion phase of this particular economic cycle.

If the U.S. economy and larger financial system were really on solid footing, I’d be celebrating along with the politicians and bankers. But long-time readers know how I think all this is going to end…


“Pollyanna (1960) Original Ending”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Sunday, December 14th, 2014 Federal Reserve, Recovery, Signs Of The Time No Comments

REI Offering Wilderness Survival Winter Skills Class In Chicago’s South Suburbs On Dec. 28

REI is offering wilderness survival winter skills instruction in the Chicago area at the end of this month. From the REI website:

Wilderness Survival: Winter Skills

Date: 12/28/2014
Event Location: Palos Forest Preserve – Bull Frog Lake
Member: $65.00
Non Member: $85.00
Time: 9:00 AM – 2:00 PM CST
Leader: REI Outdoor School Instructor
Group Size: 10

Description: Join REI Outdoor School for a wilderness self-reliance class that could save your life. During this class you will learn practical tips and strategies that every outdoor traveler should know including winter emergency priorities, how to make an emergency shelter, and how to make your own emergency kit with all the essentials. You will also participate in interactive scenarios to practice and hone your skills. This class is designed for anyone who spends time outdoors during the winter.

Skills you’ll learn:

As a result of this class, participants will gain knowledge regarding

• Winter Emergency Kits/Essentials
• Winter Emergency Priorities
• Winter Emergency Shelters

Bull Frog Lake is part of the Palos Forest Preserve, Forest Preserve District of Cook County. Please note there are 8 spots left (of 10 allotted) as I type this, so if you’re interested in taking this wilderness survival winter skills course, head on over to the class web page on the REI website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Sunday, December 14th, 2014 Emergencies, Preparedness, Shelter, Training No Comments

Quote For The Week

“Let me say this to anyone who is listening at Citi: I agree with you. Dodd-Frank isn’t perfect. It should have broken you into pieces.”

-U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), in a speech on the Senate floor Friday on banks’ influence on the political process and concerning language in the spending bill (now before the Senate) she claims “would let derivatives traders on Wall Street gamble with taxpayer money and get bailed out by the government when their risky bets threaten to blow up our financial system.”

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Resource Of The Week: 196 Free Survival Downloads

Actually, the title of this post should be “Resources Of The Week.”

Late this afternoon I was looking for two particular survival-related texts which I knew were floating around the Internet free of charge, and which I’ve been meaning to download for some time now. Thankfully, I found them- on Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre’s blog, Surviving In Argentina, along with 194 other survival-related downloads.

I’ve obviously come across this list on FerFAL’s blog before- as there’s a comment from “SurvivalAndProsperity.com” on the post dated November 18, 2012. I’m sure I meant to share these resources with readers back then- but never did for some reason or another.

Better late than never, I guess. Check out the 196 free survival downloads on Fernando Aguirre’s blog here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Thursday, December 11th, 2014 Preparedness, Resource Of The Week No Comments

In Print: The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2015

Speaking of farmers today, I was going through my father’s desk in search of a pad of paper while I was at my parents’ place last weekend. Opening a drawer, I spotted a copy of The Old Farmer’s Almanac tucked away in there. I just blogged about the Almanac in August, writing:

Back when I still lived under my parents’ roof, I’d sometimes grab my dad’s latest copy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac to read. Don’t know about the Almanac? From their website:

Since 1792, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has spoken to all walks of life: tide tables for those who live near the ocean; sunrise and planting charts for those who live on the farm; recipes for those who live in the kitchen; and forecasts for those who don’t like the question of weather left up in the air…

Our operation is based in Dublin, New Hampshire. The words of the Almanac’s founder, Robert B. Thomas, guide us still: “Our main endeavour is to be useful, but with a pleasant degree of humor.”

I thought the annual publication looked pretty “useful,” and figured once I grew up I’d buy my own copies.

I’ve grown up. And I recently purchased the 2015 edition of The Old Farmer’s Almanac from Amazon.com.

(Editor’s note: The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac- in print since 1818- are not one and the same)

The latest Almanac reminds me of those copies I borrowed from my father three decades ago. With a smattering of ads throughout (a number of them are actually pretty interesting), the 304-page softcover book is divided up into the following sections:

• About This Almanac
• Amusement
• Anniversary
• Astrology
• Astronomy
• Calendar
• Food
• Gardening
• Home Remedies
• Husbandry
• Miscellany
• Outdoors
• Romance
• Special Report
• Weather

“Tabs” are provided for Calendar, Weather, and Reference information.

What compelled me to finally purchase a copy of The Old Farmer’s Almanac after all these years was last winter in the Chicago area. I wanted to find out if this next one was going to be as brutal. And since the Almanac claims around an 80 percent accuracy rate with its weather forecasts, I thought they might be able to provide some insight. From the “Weather” section, under “The General Weather Report and Forecast” area:

Winter is expected to be another cold one in the eastern half to two-thirds of the nation…

And from the “Region 6 Forecast (Lower Lakes)” area:

Winter will be colder than normal… Precipitation will be… near-normal in the west…

The Almanac goes on to predict when they think the coldest and snowiest periods will be for the area this winter, but I don’t want to steal their thunder here. That being said, I’m going to try and make the most out of this mild weather we’re having out here in the Chicagoland area, and finalize buttoning-up the house and prepping the property for when winter finally rears its ugly head again.

Besides the weather, the 2015 edition of the Almanac is chock-full of interesting, informative, and easy-to-read articles and other material (it would be even easier-to-read if they offered a large-print edition for people whose vision isn’t as great as it once was). I can see myself referring to the “Best Fishing Days and Times” (hopefully I’ll have the need to look this up!) and the “Reference Compendium” areas on a regular basis. And get a load of this piece in the “Amusement” section:

Solar Strokes

Yet another reason to worry.

In a review of more than 11,000 people who suffered a stroke between 1981 and 2004, researchers in New Zealand found that strokes are 19 percent more likely to occur on days with a geomagnetic storm… The storms had more effect on people under the age of 65…

E-I-E-I-Whoa! Good thing I “grew up” and got myself a copy of this resource.

All in all, The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2015 is a nice addition to the home library, and I plan on acquiring the latest editions as they’re released.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Thursday, December 11th, 2014 Agriculture, Food, Gardening, In Print, Preparedness, Weather No Comments

Jim Rogers On Best Ways To Invest In Agriculture

On Monday, I blogged about well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers and his steadfast belief that agriculture is where big money will be made in the future.

Late last night I was on the website of the Wall Street Daily website listening to an interview of Rogers that was conducted by Robert Williams, founder of the Baltimore, Maryland-based investment research/market commentary service. Considering what I just wrote, it was what the commodities “guru” had to say about the best ways to invest in agriculture that grabbed my attention. From their exchange:

WILLIAMS: Jim, what’s the most effective route into agriculture for our readers interested in playing this long-term bull market?

ROGERS: Well, there are many ways to do it. The best way is to buy a farm- become a farmer if you really want to get rich because I explained before, some of the serious, serious, key fundamental problems in agriculture. So if you like the outdoors, if you think you’d be good at it, you might consider becoming a farmer.

Now most of your readers are probably not going to become farmers, but that’s the way. Or buy a farm and lease it to a farmer- somebody who’s competent. You can buy stocks. Certainly you can buy stocks. If you buy the right stocks- seed companies, fertilizer companies, or whatever- you’ll make a lot of money.

You can buy countries. Some countries are more agriculturally-oriented than others. Pakistan is a country that lives and dies on cotton more than anything else. So it depends on the country.

If you’re going to buy a lake house, I would buy my lake house in Oklahoma, not in Massachusetts, because stocks are at all-time highs. And we just discussed what’s been happening in commodities. So lake houses in Oklahoma or Nebraska are probably a lot cheaper than in Massachusetts. You can get a Lamborghini dealership in Iowa, because the farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis, in my view, in the future.

Or you can buy- for most people, obviously the best way is to buy an index. Many studies have shown that index investing is far and away the best way to invest in anything- stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, anything else. And there are plenty of exchange-traded products where it makes it very easy these days to invest in commodities.

On buying a lake house in Oklahoma or Nebraska, the former investing partner of George Soros said something similar in an May 23, 2003, interview on the Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE TV program. Nailing the U.S. housing bubble a couple years before it burst, Rogers talked property (with an eye towards natural resources) with co-anchor Karen Gibbs. From the interview:

GIBBS: How about real estate?

ROGERS: Well, real estate, Karen, depends on where you are. There is a mania, a housing bubble going on. But if you’re going to buy a second home, buy a lake house in Iowa, because Iowa is a natural-resources-based state. I’m bullish on agriculture. I’m bullish on natural resources. So houses in Iowa will probably do well. Don’t buy it in Boston. Boston is a financial town. I’m not that optimistic on financial companies or financial areas. So buy in Oklahoma, buy in Colorado, buy in states where the economy is going to get better. Stay away from places like New York and Boston — where I live — because real estate there will probably not do well.

In a Barron’s interview that appeared on the publication’s website on October 12, 2013 (blogged about here), the Singapore-based investor who correctly-called the commodity bull market that began in 1999 expanded:

I could buy farmland and become a farmer—although I would be hopeless at it—or buy farmland and lease it out. Buy shares in farms, farm equipment, fertilizer and seed companies that trade on exchanges around the world. Stock markets in agriculture-producing countries should do better than those in agriculture-importing ones. Retailers, restaurants, banks in agricultural areas will do well. Buy a vacation home on a lake in Iowa, not Massachusetts.

Good stuff. You can listen to/read (transcript provided) that recent Wall Street Daily interview on their website here. And for a trip down memory lane, that Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE exchange here.

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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REI/WMI Offering Wilderness First Aid Class In Chicago’s Chinatown On Jan. 17-18

Any Chicagoland blog readers looking to learn about wilderness first aid in the new year? I came across the following on the REI website this morning:

Wilderness First Aid with WMI and REI

Begins: 1/17/2015 9:00 AM CST
Event Location: Ping Tom Memorial Park- Fieldhouse
Member: $225.00
Non Member: $255.00
Ends: 1/18/2015 6:00 PM CST
Instructor: REI Outdoor School Instructor
Group Size: 30

Description: Whether spending time in the backcountry is your passion or your profession, you should never have to ask, “What do I do now?” REI is partnering with the Wilderness Medicine Institute of NOLS to offer a comprehensive 16 hour, two day course that will teach you the wilderness medicine skills you need to recreate with confidence in the backcountry. In just two days, you will learn the knowledge, skills and ability to make sound decisions in emergency situations. From the Patient Assessment System through traumatic, medical, and environmental emergencies, you’ll experience a wide variety of topics designed to prepare you to act if an accident occurs. This course is ideal for trip leaders, camp staff, outdoor enthusiasts and individuals in remote locations. The course begins at 9am each day and runs through 6pm, with a 1-hour break midday. Minimum age is 16 years old. No prerequisites. Successful completion results in a Wilderness Medicine Institute of NOLS Wilderness First Aid certification. This course may be used to recertify Wilderness First Responder, Wilderness Advanced First Aid and Wilderness EMT (wilderness portion only) certifications if you hold a current or grace year WMI certification. Participants using the WFA to recertify their WFR need to pass both a written and a practical test.

Skills you’ll learn:

Learn how to administer first aid in a wilderness context. Topics include:

• the Patient Assessment System
• creating evacuation plans and wilderness emergency procedures
• spinal cord injuries
• shock
• head injuries
• wilderness wound management
• athletic injuries
• fracture management
• dislocations
• cold injuries
• heat injuries
• altitude sickness
• lightning
• the Medical Patient
• and anaphylaxis.

Ping Tom Memorial Park and their new fieldhouse are located at 1700 S. Wentworth Ave., Chicago (Chinatown- I love Chinatown!). Please note there are only 18 spots left (out of 30 allotted) as I type this, so if you’re interested in wilderness first aid training in the Chicago area and at a cool location, head on over to the class web page on the REI website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Thursday, December 11th, 2014 Emergencies, Health, Medicine, Preparedness, Training No Comments

JM Bullion Sale: 10 Oz A-Mark Silver Bars Only 85¢/Oz Over Spot Any Quantity

Anyone been watching the price of silver lately? The spot price is currently $16.99 an ounce as I type this. In case any Survival And Prosperity readers are looking to acquire more physical silver at the beaten-down prices these days, you may want to drop by the website of affiliate marketing partner JM Bullion (reviewed here) to check out their 10 Ounce A-Mark Silver Bar Sale going on. From the site’s “On Sale Now Page”:

10 oz A-Mark Silver Bar (New)

Available for Only 85¢/oz Over Spot Any Quantity!

Produced by A-Mark Precious Metals and are composed of 10 troy ounces of .999 pure silver.

Available While Supplies Last, Limited Time Only

All orders at JM Bullion are shipped completely free of charge and include full tracking and insurance.

The 10 Ounce A-Mark Silver Bar Sale has been going on for a couple of days already, so if you’re interested in the deal, stop on by the JM Bullion website as soon as possible.

Click on the banner ad below, where you’ll be taken to the JM Bullion site. Please note that by clicking on the ad and purchasing a product, I receive a commission from the sale.

JM Bullion

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Robert Shiller On Stocks: ‘I’ve Been Wondering If I Should Pull Out’

I haven’t mentioned Robert Shiller, the Yale professor credited with correctly-calling the “dot-com” and housing busts, on Survival And Prosperity since August. The “crash prophet” had just penned “The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations” on The New York Times website on August 16 and warned:

The United States stock market looks very expensive right now. The CAPE ratio, a stock-price measure I helped develop- is hovering at a worrisome level…

That being said, Dr. Shiller appeared on CNBC Tuesday morning and told viewers the following when asked what he’s doing with his own money:

I worry about valuation in the stock market. And I’ve been wondering if I should pull out. But I have not. And in fact I’m still thinking that even at the CAPE ratio of 27, the expected return is still higher than you expect to get on either housing, on real estate, or fixed income. So it still seems like- I feel a little trepidation because I know my own indicator is looking kind of scary. I wouldn’t over go into the market, but I wouldn’t be completely out either.


“Scary market indicator: Shiller”
CNBC Video

Shiller mentioned that the CAPE ratio is now 27. It should be noted that in that August 16 Times piece he added:

I wrote with some concern about the high ratio in this space a little over a year ago, when it stood at around 23, far above its 20th-century average of 15.21. (CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-earnings.) Now it is above 25, a level that has been surpassed since 1881 in only three previous periods: the years clustered around 1929, 1999 and 2007. Major market drops followed those peaks.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’d feel a little trepidation too knowing what’s happened to the stock market when that CAPE ratio surpassed 25.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

Shiller, Robert. “The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations.” The New York Times. 16 Aug. 2014. (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/17/upshot/the-mystery-of-lofty-elevations.html?_r=1&abt=0002&abg=0). 10 Dec. 2014.

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Wednesday, December 10th, 2014 Bonds, Crash Prophets, Housing, Investing, Stocks No Comments

Project Prepper, Part 30: Status

Last week in the “Project Prepper” series of posts I did a recap of what the series is all about for those who didn’t already know.

Today, I’m going to talk about where the project stands after a little over two years in the works.

To start, my girlfriend and I moved out of the city of Chicago last year to a house in the northwest suburbs- with an eye towards eventually settling down in Wisconsin.

I decided my preparedness education and activities will focus on a prioritized list of six “innate survival needs” (hat tip Jack Spirko @ The Survival Podcast). This includes:

1. Security
2. Water
3. Food
4. Shelter
5. Sanitation and Health
6. Energy

Concerning security, that’s something that’s been in the works for several years now. Like I wrote on this blog’s “About” page:

Survival And Prosperity is unlike other financial blogs in that SP focuses simultaneously on finance and personal safety, two areas Christopher Hill has spent a lot of time researching these past couple of years and which are intertwined in any serious discussion about surviving and prospering in tumultuous times. Case in point, an individual might pursue a strategy of wealth preservation and growth that would pay off handsomely in a financial crash. Yet, if personal safety was ignored in the process, that same individual might end up a victim of the social turmoil that is sure to accompany the economic collapse. So much for that new-found wealth, right?

(Editor’s note: Blog added for emphasis)

Decent strides have been made in the area of security, although plenty of work remains with all those “innate survival needs.” Physical security on the exterior/interior of the new house has been improved, particularly with landscaping, lighting, and locks. Personal safety gear, supplies, and tools have been acquired, with training having commenced a few years back.

New Tools: United Cutlery Honshu Tantos

New Tools: United Cutlery Honshu Tantos

Purchased @ BUDK.com For $36.99 (Stainless), $39.99 (Black)

Concerning water, the foundation for an emergency water supply is now in place. While utilizing some water storage containers I had prior to this project, I’ve acquired additional containers. To maintain the quality of the water for an extended period of time, I purchased aerobic stabilized oxygen. I’ve also kept a couple of cases of bottled drinking water on hand, along with an emergency water containment system that holds up to 100 gallons of fresh water in a bathtub standing by in the wings. At present, my girlfriend and I have close to a week-and-a-half supply of emergency water each (based on federal government guidelines of one gallon per person per day). Even though this is significantly more than Uncle Sam’s 72-hour recommendation, I’m not comfortable with this amount.

Concerning food, the foundation for an emergency food supply is also in place. Taking advantage of price drops and gift cards, my girlfriend and I scored a relatively-inexpensive 1-week supply of high-quality freeze-dried meals each. Like with the water though, I’d like to increase that amount commensurate with the potential emergencies I’ve identified.

Concerning shelter, purchasing that house last spring was a pretty big “prep.” And it was certainly an improvement over the multi-family housing arrangement where my girlfriend and I used to live. As much as I love the city of Chicago and would have liked to stay in our northwest side neighborhood, my girlfriend and I are much better off here in a close-by suburb, all things considered.

Concerning sanitation/health, not much work has been done in this area yet. As health is concerned, I’ve acquired a good deal of basic first aid supplies and instructional material in the last couple of years. But it’s been too long since I’ve had any training in this area. It’s one of my goals in 2015 to complete an American Red Cross First Aid/CPR/AED class and build a comprehensive first aid kit- as well as having the knowledge/skills to use it. In addition, while working around the house has been good for the body, I really need to improve my physical fitness. Not only will it help me cope with the difficult times I see coming down the pipeline, but hopefully it will keep me from having to rely on our floundering health care system as much as possible.

On sanitation, an unforeseen (and somewhat costly) improvement was carried out late last year on our sewer line going from the house. I’ll spare readers the details, but a new cleanout was added on the front of the home, and with it, a check valve. Should the city’s sewer system fail for any reason (extended power grid failure?), the valve should prevent sewage from backing up into our house and through the toilets. At least, that’s how I understand it should work. When it comes to people having to “go to the bathroom” in an extended grid-down scenario and dealing with the waste, I’m already researching a number of possible solutions.

Finally, as energy is concerned, for short-term blackouts I’ve been looking at portable generators to use at first until my girlfriend and I can afford a standby generator that can be hooked up to the natural gas line coming into the house. I’m also exploring if we can’t utilize renewable sources of energy somehow. I really hope so, because it’s probably what we’ll be forced to turn to in a long-term grid-down situation. That being said, we are limited by what we can use due to our location in a major metropolitan area.

So that’s where I stand with “Project Prepper” as 2014 draws to a close. Decent progress has been made in tackling those “innate survival needs,” but there’s still a lot more work that needs to be done. Hopefully, time and money will be on my side in the new year.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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