Borrowing
Peter Schiff On GDP Calculation ‘Makeover,’ Delaying Our ‘Day Of Reckoning,’ And Gold Speculators
Lots of catching up going on around here today. I just got finished watching Peter Schiff’s latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital zeroed-in on the “makeover” in calculating U.S. gross domestic product, delaying our “financial reckoning day,” and the situation small speculators may find themselves in after helping fuel gold’s price drop the other week. Regarding GDP, Schiff pointed out the following in yesterday’s video blog post:
When the government gets around to delivering the news for the second quarter, the U.S. economy is going to be quite a bit larger than it was during the fourth quarter. Now, it’s not going to be because we’re actually more productive, it’s because the government is going to launch a brand new methodology for computing the GDP. They’re going to change the way they’ve been doing it all these years. And they’re going to start to include a bunch of things that in the past, they never included. They’re going to include things that no other country includes when they calculate their GDP. And as a result of this makeover, these brand new additions, I think instantaneously the U.S. economy is going to be 3 percent larger. That’s a big number. It’s like 4 or 500 billion dollars of GDP is going to be conjured out of thin air just based on the change in the methodology for computating GDP.
You know, this is what the government does. They change the way they compute statistics. Unemployment’s too high? Okay, we’ll calculate it another way. Now it’s not as high. Inflation’s too high? Wait a minute, let’s find another way to calculate the inflation rate. Oh look, we’ve solved the inflation problem- there’s not that much inflation.
Now, the government wants the economy to appear bigger. Why? Well, because it makes the debt-to-GDP look smaller. A lot of people are talking about debt-to-GDP now. Well, if they can make the GDP larger by figuring out another way to calculate it, well now they can make that ratio appear better.
Also, people are talking about government spending as a share of GDP. Okay, let’s make the GDP larger, and that means that government spending has now come down as a share of this larger number.
Schiff, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust and “Panic of ’08,” had this to say about the coming U.S. financial crash:
The fact of the matter is, governments are borrowing too much, they’re printing too much, they’re spending too much, and it’s all in a vain attempt to try to artificially stimulate an economy that’s been overstimulated, and to delay the “day of reckoning.” And the problem is, the longer they delay it, the more we have to reckon with. And, ultimately, we’ve going to have to pay a huge price for the fact that we didn’t deal with these problems sooner, rather than later.
“Slow ‘growth’,GDP makeover, Keynesians demand more debt and inflation”
YouTube Video
Finally, Schiff, who’s also the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, talked about gold’s recent price drop, who he thought was behind it, and what may be in store for them. From the video post:
I think the major selling in the metals market has come from the small speculator that trades on the futures market, that trades on the ETF. That’s where all the selling has been. The small speculators. I don’t think the larger investors have cashed in. They’re probably holding on. And the real buyers, the buyers in the physical market- who are not just trying to jump on a moving train to try and catch a small move because they want to get in on something that’s going up- the physical demand has been ongoing and consistent for years. But you have had some of the “Johnny Come Lately” hot money among smaller speculators. They’ve jumped on, they’re the ones that have sold, they cashed out. In fact, I think you have a lot of small speculators that are now short gold, that sold into the lows, and that are holding onto these positions with losses. And we’ll see how long they can hold those losses as the price moves higher and we turn up the heat. I think a lot of those people that were quick to short the market are going to end up covering at much higher prices.
Good insights as usual from this “crash prophet.”
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
VP Biden Says Chicago-Area Democratic Primary Result Sends ‘Clear Unequivocal Signal’ To NRA And Politicians
Before I move away from the topic of firearms and gun rights, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden decided to weigh-in on the victory of pro-gun “control” candidate Robin Kelly in the U.S. Congressional 2nd District (Chicago south suburbs plus more) Democratic primary this past Tuesday. According to Reuters’ Roberta Rampton yesterday, Biden told a group of state attorney generals:
For the first time since Newtown, voters sent a clear unequivocal signal… The voters sent a message last night, not just to the NRA, but to the politicians all around the country. There will be a moral price as well as a political price to be paid for inaction.
I’m going to disagree with the VP here. I’d guess that many observers familiar with “The Chicago Way” interpreted the primary as once again demonstrating that race, gobs of money, and having the blessing of “The Machine” wins elections here in the Chicagoland area. And local politicians screaming about the need for more gun “control” is just one more attempt to distract the masses from the crappy economy and huge financial mess these guys have gotten us into ($9 billion in unpaid bills and a $96 billion pension funding gap in Illinois from what I read yesterday).
By the way, going back to that post I published last week about the Vice President answering gun “control” questions at a Parents magazine event and telling one Facebook user they didn’t need an AR-15 for self-defense, get a shotgun instead…
“Buy A Shotgun Joe Biden Lying AR-15”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Rampton, Roberta. “Biden says Chicago vote a sign that voters want action on guns.” Reuters. 27 Feb. 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/27/us-usa-guns-biden-idUSBRE91Q11N20130227). 27 Feb. 2013.
Eurozone Slipped Deeper Into Double-Dip Recession At End Of 2012
Bad news from across the pond. Europe is getting pummeled by a double-dip recession. Philip Blenkinsop and Annika Breidthardt reported on the Reuters website this afternoon:
The euro zone slipped deeper than expected into recession in the last three months of 2012 after its largest economies, Germany and France, shrank at the end of a wretched year for the region.
It marked the currency bloc’s first full year in which no quarter produced growth, extending back to 1995. For the year as a whole, gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5 percent.
Economic output in the 17-country region fell by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, EU statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday, following a 0.1 percent output drop in the third.
The quarter-on-quarter drop was the steepest since the first quarter of 2009…
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
What is it we’ve witnessed in Europe on a consistent basis since the global economic crisis really roared its ugly in the fall of 2008? A sovereign debt crisis emerges in one Eurozone nation, the problem is literally papered over, and then another one flares up somewhere else in the region.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Brian Blackstone and Christopher Emsden wrote on the Wall Street Journal website tonight:
The 2.3% drop in euro-zone gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, at an annualized pace, suggests that Europe’s economic and financial crisis is far from over. The region’s deepening malaise challenges European authorities’ insistence that fiscal austerity will lead to growth by boosting business confidence, economists say.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Europe tries to tackle its debt problem by implementing austerity, and they get a double-dip recession.
America keeps borrowing, spending, and growing its debts, and we manage to keep our heads above water for the time being.
“Spending our way to prosperity.” That’s the course the powers-that-be have charted for us.
As if the rules of finance and economics don’t apply here.
I fear the coming lesson will be a painful one. History shows it usually is.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Blenkinsop, Philip and Breidthardt, Annika. “Euro zone economy falls deeper than expected into recession.” Reuters. 14 Feb. 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/14/us-europe-economy-idUSBRE91D0CX20130214). 14 Feb. 2013.
Blackstone, Brian and Emsden, Christopher. “Europe Woes Deepen as Economies Contract.” Wall Street Journal. 14 Feb. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324162304578303503840132168.html). 14 Feb. 2013.
Illinois’ Total Unfunded Liabilities: $275 Billion
The following bit about Illinois’ total unfunded liabilities from a January 28 Investor’s Business Daily editorial was so depressing to read that I originally planned to blog about it much earlier this morning- but needed to step away. From the IBD website:
A recent release by the Illinois Policy Institute shows this [$96.8 billion unfunded debt to five state pension systems] is only the tip of the iceberg and when you add in other liabilities such as $54 billion in unfunded liabilities for retiree health insurance and $15 billion in pension bonds that Gov. Pat Quinn and his immediate predecessor, former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, issued to avoid pension reform, Illinois’ total unfunded liabilities amount to $275 billion, or $58,000 in debt for each and every household in the state.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
So what’s it going to be, Illinois? Since a booming economy seems unlikely to return anytime soon, will the Democrat-dominated Illinois General Assembly finally enact significant spending cuts? Raise fees and taxes through the roof? Throw public sector retirees “under the bus?”
They’re going to have to do something real quick.
Or watch the whole thing unravel.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
“Obama’s Illinois Downgrade Makes It America’s Greece.” Investor’s Business Daily. 28 Jan. 2013. (http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/012813-642237-credit-downgrade-illinois-standard-poors-worst.htm). 31 Jan. 2013.
Illinois Bond Issue Halted Due To Credit Concerns
Today, residents of the state of Illinois saw the repercussions of having $8 billion of unpaid bills, a $96.8 billion pension funding gap, and falling credit ratings. Karen Pierog reported on the Reuters website:
Illinois yanked a $500 million general obligation bond issue slated for Wednesday because of credit concerns that could boost its borrowing costs, in the latest financial blow to the state, which has failed to fix its bloated public pensions.
Investment banks that planned to bid on the debt indicated investors would demand higher yields on the 25-year bonds, said John Sinsheimer, Illinois’ capital markets director.
“We were getting indications of higher spreads than we were anticipating,” said Sinsheimer, who declined to discuss specific spread levels. “We felt it was prudent to pull the deal for the time being.”
(Editor’s notes: Italics added for emphasis)
Pierog pointed out:
Illinois is already faced with the highest spreads – 137 basis points in the latest week – over Municipal Market Data’s benchmark triple-A scale among states and cities tracked by MMD, a unit of Thomson Reuters.
Over the weekend, I noted Standard & Poor’s downgraded the State of Illinois on Friday to an “A-” rating with a negative outlook- last among all 50 states. I added that among other major credit rating agencies, Moody’s also ranks Illinois last of all the U.S. states and Fitch ranks it 49th but on watch for a possible downgrade.
As for Illinois taxpayers? They may have to pay tens of millions of dollars more in interest when the state looks to borrow more money- like what almost happened today.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Pierog, Karen. “UPDATE 2-Illinois pulls $500 mln bond sale amid credit concerns.” Reuters. 30 Jan 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/illinois-bonds-idUSL1N0AZ6TQ20130130). 30 Jan. 2013.
S&P Downgrades Illinois Credit Rating To Worst In Nation
When I heard a major credit rating agency had downgraded Illinois Friday, the term “death spiral state” quickly came to mind.
And then my thoughts turned to the tens of millions of dollars Illinois taxpayers might be on the hook for down the road.
Ray Long and Monique Garcia reported on the Chicago Tribune website Friday:
Illinois fell to the bottom of all 50 states in the rankings of a major credit ratings agency Friday following the failure of Gov. Pat Quinn and lawmakers to fix the state’s hemorrhaging pension system during this month’s lame-duck session.
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service downgraded Illinois in what is the latest fallout over the $96.8 billion debt to five state pension systems. The New York rating firm’s ranking signaled taxpayers may pay tens of millions of dollars more in interest when the state borrows money for roads and other projects.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Illinois now has an “A-” rating with a negative outlook from S&P. Among other major credit rating agencies, Moody’s ranks Illinois last among the 50 states and Fitch ranks it 49th but on watch for a possible downgrade.
Regarding the state’s huge pension funding gap, Mark Peters wrote on the Wall Street Journal website Friday:
S&P estimates the pension system in the coming year will see assets fall to 39% of future obligations.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Hardly any talk about the crisis in the local mainstream media outlets this weekend. Amazing. I can’t understand why more Illinois residents aren’t up in arms over this humongous financial mess the state is in.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Garcia, Monique and Long, Ray. “Illinois credit rating sinks to worst in nation.” Chicago Tribune. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-25/news/chi-illinois-credit-rating-sinks-to-worst-in-nation-20130125_1_action-on-pension-reform-robin-prunty-illinois-credit). 27 Jan. 2013.
Peters, Mark. “S&P Cuts Illinois Credit Rating.” Wall Street Journal. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324539304578264293106044944.html). 27 Jan. 2013.
John Rubino Warns The Big Collapse Is Still Ahead Of Us
There’s a lot of poseurs out there in the financial community these days who claim to have correctly-predicted the global economic crisis that really reared its ugly head by the autumn of 2008. Whatever. One of the authentic “crash prophets,” who I used to talk about from time to time in my old blog, is John Rubino. Shortly after its publication in 2004, I picked up a copy of Rubino’s The coming collapse of the dollar–and how to profit from it from my local library. The book, which was co-authored with James Turk of GoldMoney-fame, was truly an eye-opener for me. And I’ve been fortunate enough to come across a recent interview with Rubino on the Gold Silver Worlds website.
Like me, John Rubino thinks the real financial crash is still dead-ahead.
From the Gold Silver Worlds piece:
John Rubino published his book in 2004 together with James Turk from GoldMoney. The main theme of the book was that governments in the US lost control over their spending and borrowing, which would ultimately result in some sort of catastrophic crisis. Debt accumulation would continue until some kind of crisis, internally or globally, would force to stop this trend. Most of the predictions have come true, but John Rubino stresses that the 2008 crisis was not the final collapse. He is convinced that the big collapse is still ahead of us.
Rubino went on to talk about where we stand today, why the path to the final collapse has been slowed down, how the next collapse will play out, trends for 2013, and gold and silver for safely storing one’s wealth.
It’s a great read, and it’s nice to hear what John Rubino has to say after his initial warnings in 2004.
The entire article can be found on the Gold Silver Worlds website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
U.S. Reaches $16.4 Trillion Debt Limit
You may have been distracted by events related to New Year’s Day and negotiations over the “fiscal cliff” to notice that the United States reached its authorized debt ceiling of $16.394 trillion on New Year’s Eve. Rich Barbieri and Jeanne Sahadi reported on the CNN Money website Monday morning:
It’s official: U.S. debt reached its legal borrowing limit Monday, giving Congress about two months before it must raise the debt ceiling or risk causing the government to default on its bills and financial obligations.
“I can confirm we will reach the statutory debt limit today, Dec. 31,” a Treasury Department official said Monday.
As for increasing the nation’s debt ceiling yet again, U.S. President Barack Obama doesn’t want debate from Congress on the subject. From Reuters this morning:
President Barack Obama vowed on Tuesday to avoid a repeat of last year’s divisive fight with Congress over an extension of the nation’s borrowing authority.
“While I will negotiate over many things, I will not have another debate with this Congress about whether or not they should pay the bills they have already racked up,” Obama said in remarks in the White House.
“I will not have another debate.” Hmm. Back on December 5, Zachary Goldfarb wrote on the Post Politics blog on the Washington Post website:
As part of the fiscal cliff negotiations, Obama has proposed effectively ending the need for Congress to periodically raise the debt limit, which Republicans have rejected.
I wonder if this proposal won’t be pushed again in the near future?
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (http://www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Barbieri, Rich and Sahadi, Jeanne. “It’s official: U.S. hits debt ceiling.” CNN Money. 31 Dec. 2012. (http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/31/news/economy/debt-ceiling/) 2 Jan. 2013.
“Obama Debt Ceiling Statement: Limit Increase Not Up For Debate After Fiscal Cliff Showdown.” Reuters. 2 Jan. 2013. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/02/obama-debt-ceiling-fiscal-cliff_n_2394164.html). 2 Jan. 2013.
Goldfarb, Zachary A. “Obama on debt ceiling fight: ‘I will not play that game.’” Post Politics. 5 Dec. 2012. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2012/12/05/obama-on-debt-ceiling-i-will-not-play-that-game/). 2 Jan. 2013.
Peter Schiff: Avoiding ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Will ‘Destroy’ U.S. Dollar
Peter Schiff, President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, appeared on the FOX Business TV channel yesterday and talked about a growing crisis in the U.S. bond market and its impact on the U.S. dollar. Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, warned viewers:
If we avoid the “fiscal cliff,” we end up throwing the dollar over the currency cliff because we send the message to the world that America will never pay its bills. We’re just going to keep borrowing money until our creditors cut us off. And that’s when interest rates skyrocket. And the pressure is on the Fed- because if the Fed caves in to the political pressure to buy up all those bonds that nobody wants, then we destroy the dollar. And that’s an even bigger crisis than if we just let the bond market collapse and let it take the economy with it…
“Bond Market Leading to the ‘Real’ Fiscal Cliff?”
FOX Business Video
Peter Schiff Warns Obama Debt Limit Proposal Could Shock America’s Creditors ‘Into Reality’
“The U.S. runs out of federal borrowing authority around the end of the year, but the Obama administration can use special measures to extend borrowing through late February or early March. As part of the fiscal cliff negotiations, Obama has proposed effectively ending the need for Congress to periodically raise the debt limit.”
-Washington Post website, December 5, 2012
Peter Schiff, President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, talked about the looming U.S. “fiscal cliff” and a White House proposal to give the President the power to raise the nation’s debt “ceiling” as needed in his December 3 entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, zeroed in on the debt limit proposal:
This could be a moment where our creditors maybe get shocked into reality. To understand the situation that they are in, that we are in. That there is no limit. That we will borrow money until we can’t do it anymore. That we’re not going to do anything about this crisis. We’re not going to do anything to diffuse this ticking bomb. It’s simply going to go off. And I think our creditors are going to want to put as much distance as they can between themselves and the explosion. They’re going to want to sell dollars. They’re going to want to sell debt denominated in dollars. What is that going to mean? A weaker dollar and higher consumer prices for Americans. It ultimately means higher interest rates for Americans. It means the rug is going to be pulled out from the slowing economy. It means we’re going to go over the Mother of All Fiscal Cliffs, and one that is impossible to avoid.
So, my advice is don’t wait for that. Get out of your dollars. I’ve been saying this for a while, but I think the urgency, and the time with which to do it, is going to be running out. So you get out of your dollars. Get out of any debt denominated in any dollars. Because we’re not going to pay our bills, we’re going to inflate them away, which is the same thing as default. So you don’t want to ride out that inflation. You want to get out of U.S. currency. You want to look at foreign currencies where the governments are much less irresponsible. Look at real money. Look at gold and silver. Look at foreign stocks if they’re suitable that pay dividends. Do whatever you can to get out of Dodge, because just when the government assures you that there’s nothing to worry about, that’s the time where you need to worry the most.
“Debt Ceiling & the Fiscal Cliff”
YouTube Video
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
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