Commodities
Financial Sense Newshour’s Jim Puplava: When Gold Price Manipulation Occurs, Buy Gold
Today I’m going to discuss some material from the podcasts I listen to on a regular basis. The first of these is the Financial Sense Newshour. Back on April 27, host Jim Puplava, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis among other things, responded to a question about alleged gold price manipulation. Puplava told his listeners:
They can manipulate it in the short run. You need to do what investors are doing now. When they do this- take it down- do what many investors including myself have done. You just go and buy it. You’re getting it marked down and on sale. And the fundamentals are always going to play out in the long run. Same thing with silver…
When they do this- I don’t care if it’s stock or it’s the bullion itself- take advantage of the system. Which is what investors have done over the last two weeks worldwide…
So, take advantage of the opportunity when it presents itself. This isn’t the first time that we’ve had these little manipulations that have taken place in the market. When they occur, if you can, that’s when you buy.
So it seems Mr. Puplava is in the camp that believes the price of gold is being manipulated. He’d be joining Paul Craig Roberts and Ambrose Evans-Prtichard in this respect.
Speaking of respect, I’ve been listening to Puplava’s podcast for 8 years now, even going so far as selecting it as a “Resource Of The Week” back in February 2011.
So when Jim Puplava talks, I listen.
Now, if I could only wrangle up some cash…
You can listen to that entire Financial Sense Newshour segment here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Peter Schiff On Recovery Talk: ‘Would Have Thought People Might Have Learned Something By Now’
In his latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Peter Schiff really called out the economic Pollyannas for their talk of a real, sustainable recovery. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing crash and “Panic of ’08,” warned in yesterday’s posting:
Don’t confuse rising asset prices with a real recovery. Asset prices are rising because the Fed is artificially-stimulating the economy. And as long as the Fed is artificially-stimulating, we will never have a legitimate recovery. Stocks and real estate prices are rising for the wrong reason. They’re rising for the same reason as they were rising in 2004, 2005, 2006. And we all know how that movie ended. Well this movie is going to have an even worse ending. This is basically the same movie, only we’re making the same mistakes on a grander scale.
And it’s amazing for me to watch it, as all the people who were so clueless back in ’04, ’05, and ’06, who said that “no one could have seen this coming.” In the aftermath of the crisis in 2008 and 2009, these are the same guys that are oblivious today. And people like me who did see it coming, we’re the ones that are warning about the next crisis. And our warnings are being received with the same reaction as they were the last time around. You would have thought people might have learned something by now.
Despite all the evidence that the economic recovery is just a story- it’s wishful thinking at best, and maybe, more like propaganda- the market continues to march on.
The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital revealed that he’s been buying gold. Schiff explained:
The only reason we’re getting the rally in the stock and bond market, the only reason it’s not “the end of the world,” is because the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing precisely what I feared they would do, which is exactly why I’ve been buying gold. So the reasons to buy gold have never been greater. And I think this new-found pessimism is going to create the backdrop- the wall of worry- that can launch the market into new highs.
“Stocks rise as recovery fantasy fades, oil breaks out, potential bottom in gold & silver”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers On What’s Happening With Commodities, Gold
Investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers recently appeared on the Yahoo! Finance show The Daily Ticker. The former investing partner of George Soros was asked by host Lauren Lyster if the commodities supercycle was ending. Rogers, who correctly-called the commodity bull market that started in 1999, told viewers:
In all bull markets, there are big corrections. In the stock bull market between ’82 and 2000. In 1987, stocks went down 40 to 80 percent- and people said it’s finished. 1989, 1990, 1994- there were many times when stocks scared the socks off of people but it wasn’t the end of the bull market. Now, in my view, that’s what’s happening here with commodities…
I still don’t see massive new supply coming into the markets which can keep prices down.
The Singapore-based investor correctly-predicted some time ago that gold was due for a significant correction. He explained:
Gold was up 12 years in a row without a down year. That’s extremely unusual. The unusual thing about the gold market is how strong it had been and it hadn’t had a correction. Now it’s having a correction. It’s long overdue. I hope a proper correction. And if it goes down, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more.
Lyster prodded Rogers for a price level at which he might be tempted to acquire more of the precious metal. Rogers replied:
I don’t know. $1,300 I would probably buy some more. $1,200 I’d buy a little bit more still. $1,100- it just depends on what’s going on in the world and how it’s acting.
You can view Rogers’ exchange with Lyster about commodities here, and gold here, on the Yahoo! Finance website.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Former High-Ranking Treasury Official: Fed Ordered Attack On Gold
Speaking of manipulating the price of gold, there’s been a good deal of suspicion that the yellow metal has come under deliberate attack.
It doesn’t come as a surprise to me that some might think this, considering the following:
• A number of Federal Reserve officials keep blabbing on about how the central bank might dial back quantitative easing soon, helping to shore up the U.S. dollar when they do this while subsequently detracting from gold’s allure
• The seemingly-reformed financial news media (accused of being stock market cheerleaders in the 90s and early 2000s) has bared their true colors and have savaged gold with a barrage of negative press. Of course they fail to mention that “gold is still up by more than 400 percent from the lows in 1999, whereas the S&P is barely up 2 percent from their highs in 2000,” as Marc Faber reminded Yahoo! Finance viewers this morning.
• Then there’s that huge disconnect between the “paper” gold market- where traders are supposedly running for the hills- and the “physical” gold market, where buyers are paying significant premiums over spot to acquire tangible gold and dealers are describing current demand as being a buying frenzy, not seeing anything like this in years- even decades.
Enter Paul Craig Roberts, chairman of the Florida-based Institute for Political Economy. Roberts is a former associate editor and columnist for the Wall Street Journal who President Reagan appointed as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy.
Roberts thinks the Federal Reserve has been orchestrating an attack on gold.
He wrote on the Institute’s website this past Saturday:
On Friday, April 12, 2013, short sales of gold hit the New York market in an amount estimated to have been somewhere between 124 and 400 tons of gold. This enormous and unprecedented sale implies an illegal conspiracy of sellers intent on rigging the market or action by the Federal Reserve through its agents, the BTBF that are the bullion banks.
The enormous sales of naked shorts drove down the gold price, triggering stop-loss orders and margin calls. The attack continued on Monday, April 15, and has continued since.
Before going further, note that there are position limits imposed on the number of contracts that traders can sell at one time. The 124 tons figure would have required 14 traders with no open interest on the exchange to sell all together in the same few minutes 40,000 futures contracts. The likelihood of so many traders deciding to short at the same moment at the maximum permitted is not believable. This was an attack ordered by the Federal Reserve, which is why there is no investigation of the illegality.
Note also that no seller that wanted out of a position would give himself a low price by dumping an enormous amount all at once unless the goal was not profit but to smash the bullion price.
Since the April 12-15 attack on the gold price, subsequent attacks have occurred at 2pm Hong Kong time and 2 am New York time. At this time activity is light, waiting on London to begin operating. As William S.Kaye has observed, no entity concerned about profits would choose this time to sell 20,000 to 30,000 futures contracts, but this is what has been happening.
Who can be unconcerned with losing money in this way? Only a central bank that can print it.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Roberts isn’t the only one accusing the Fed of ordering an attack on gold. Back on April 29 I started off a post with the following April 17 statement from Ambrose Evans-Prtichard, international business editor over at The Telegraph (UK):
My view is that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan ‘caused’ the gold crash. The rest is noise…
The world is still in a contained depression. Sliding commodities tell us global money is if anything too tight. ‘There is a threat of deflation almost everywhere. A lot of central banks will have to follow the Bank of Japan, whatever they say now,’ said Lars Christensen form Danske Bank.
The era of money printing is young yet. Gold will have its day again.
You can read the entire Roberts’ piece on the Institute for Political Economy’s website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Marc Faber: U.S. Government Could Manipulate Gold Price Down, Make Illegal And Confiscate, Then Revalue At Much Higher Price
This morning, the Yahoo! Finance investing show Talking Numbers had Swiss-born investment adviser/fund manager Marc Faber on, and one of the topics discussed was gold. From the exchange between host Brian Sullivan and “Doctor Doom”:
SULLIVAN: Would you buy gold if it continues to fall? Are you buying gold right now?
FABER: Yes.
SULLIVAN: Yes to both?
FABER: I bought gold at $1,400. I buy every month some gold. And I have an order to buy more at $1,300 because I want to keep an allocation towards gold- physical gold- and not stored in the United States at all times.
SULLIVAN: Now you were emphasizing outside the U.S. We’re a pretty safe country Mark. Why do you have to keep the gold out of here?
FABER: Well, “safe country?” I’m not so sure about that under the present government.
Later on in the interview Dr. Faber, who became famous for advising clients to get out of the U.S. stock market one week before the October 1987 crash and for predicting the 2008 global financial crisis (among other calls), added the following:
What the government could do once again- and that is a possibility- they could artificially depress, manipulate the price down, and then say gold is illegal to be held. “We have to collect all the gold from the citizens.” Say, if they manipulated the price down to $1,000, they could collect it at $1,000. And then revalue to $10,000.
When asked if the above scenario was probable, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report indicated it was not.
“Dr. Doom: The Government Can Take Away Your Gold”
Yahoo! Finance Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Resource Of The Week: King World News- Broadcast
As I’ve mentioned before, I like to listen to a number of financial and personal safety podcasts on a regular basis. Recently, I’ve started listening to a new one.
A couple of years ago, I happened to catch Eric King on the Financial Sense Newshour. I was pretty impressed by what he had to say, and shared the same concern he had of a “strongman” along the lines of Hitler and Stalin coming to power after a U.S. financial crash. I knew King headed up King World News (KWN), and when I finally headed over to his website to listen to one his interviews with the sort of people who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and Great Recession, I kept coming on back for more.
Enter King World News- Broadcast.
From Wikipedia:
Eric King created King World News (KWN) in 2009 to fill a void he saw in mainstream journalism’s lack of coverage of essential information about financial markets. Each week, King conducts audio-only interviews with important people from business and finance.
In addition, King broadcasts something called the “KWN Weekly Metals Wrap” each Saturday. From the website:
We have added new segments to the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap covering gold, silver, trading and a plethora of other factors affecting the precious metals markets. I am giving King World News listeners globally access to what has long been my secret weapons in researching where gold and silver are headed directionally along with the COT Report. We Cover the Commitment of Traders Report in detail as well as a number of other factors which can influence the gold and silver market price action.
Looking back to the beginning of May, King has interviewed notable members of the financial/investing community like:
• Art Cashin (most recent)- Director of Floor Operations for UBS Financial Services & CNBC Market Commentator
• William Kaye- Founder, Vice Chairman and Senior Managing Director of the Pacific Alliance Group of Companies
• James Turk- Founder & Chairman of GoldMoney
• Andrew Maguire- Whistleblower & Independent London Metals Trader
• John Hathaway- Senior Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, Tocqueville Funds
• John Embry- Chief Investment Strategist for Sprott Gold & Precious Minerals Fund
• Dr. Paul Craig Roberts- Economist, Co-Founder of Reaganomics
• Jean-Marie Eveillard- Senior Adviser, Portfolio Management for First Eagle Funds
• Dr. Stephen Leeb- Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital
I, myself, have King’s interview with James Turk uploaded into my mp3 player and ready to be listened to when (if) I have the time this weekend.
Eric manages to extract very insightful material from such well-informed individuals. Perhaps you might find what they have to say valuable too?
The latest King World News- Broadcast can be accessed on the KWN website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: Link added to “Resources” page)
CNBC Tries Calling Out Peter Schiff Over Gold Price
Anyone remember those “Peter Schiff Was Right” YouTube.com videos that went viral right after the U.S. housing bubble popped and the global economic crisis really reared its ugly head in the fall of 2008?
Here’s probably the most popular one out there.
Well, I’m convinced a clip or more of Thursday’s installment of the CNBC show Futures Now, hosted by CNBC Reporter Jackie DeAngelis, will be included in a future “Peter Schiff Was Right About Gold” YouTube video. From an exchange between DeAngelis and the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital:
SCHIFF: You’re talking about investors’ demand for gold going down. I would disagree. Because I own a gold company too, Euro Pacific Precious Metals. And we’ve never had more demand from our clients in the history of my company than we have now. I would say speculators, speculative demand, is what went down. I think a lot of people who came late to the gold rally were speculating in gold. They were simply buying it because the price was rising. They wanted to hop on that train. They use ETFs. They use futures markets. So I think the speculators have been flushed from the market in this pullback. But the investors- they’re still there. Because all of the reasons they’ve been buying gold for the past 10 or 12 years- those reasons have never been stronger. And so investor demand continues. We’ve flushed away the speculative demand. But I think the speculators will come back in the next rally.
DEANGELIS: Alright. Well, Peter, let’s step back for a second because you kind of jumped in there on the conversation we were having and I definitely appreciate your opinion on that. But I want to talk about the gold price that we’re looking at right now. $1,383.60. That is the price that we’re looking at at this point. We’ve had you on the show multiple times before, you said that gold was going to skyrocket, you say it’s going to be a bumpy ride and you can’t tell us exactly how we’re going to get there. But tell me today, Peter, why have you gotten it wrong?
(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)
SCHIFF: I don’t think I have gotten it wrong. You just said I said it would be a bumpy ride. Look, it’s been bumpy, but I’ve been on this ride since gold was under $300 an ounce. It’s not like gold is down from that point. It’s off its highs. But I think what’s going on right now is you’ve got a false narrative out there that the U.S. economy is improving. It’s not. All the data points have been negative. A deluge of negative data came out today. The only evidence of a rebounding economy, is the stock market going up, or the real estate market going up. But that’s not because the economy is sound. That’s because of all the cheap money created by the Fed. That’s the same reason why stock and real estate prices were going up in 2006 or 2007. It is a bubble. The economy, meanwhile, is actually getting worse. And all this talk about the Fed getting ready to take away the punch bowl is all talk. They’re going to spike it even more. They’re going to up the size of QE. But people who are speculating of an early end are getting it wrong. Gold is going through a correction. All bull markets have a correction. It is a buying opportunity.
“Schiff: Gold a Generational Buy”
CNBC Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas Cut Gold Price Forecasts
Some major global financial institutions aren’t very bullish on gold these days. First, there’s the German banking and financial services company Deutsche Bank. According to a Reuters piece picked up on The Economic Times (India) website earlier today:
Deutsche Bank cut its forecast for gold prices in 2013, 2014 and 2015 on Friday, citing the sharp price correction in gold last month and upgrades to its US dollar outlook.
The bank lowered its 2013 gold outlook 6 percent to $1,533 from $1,637. It downgraded its 2014 gold outlook by 17 percent to $1,500 and its 2015 gold outlook by 25 percent to $1,450.
On November 14, 2012, I blogged:
Back in December of last year, Deutsche Bank predicted that gold prices would hit $2,000 an ounce in the second half of 2012.
The highest London P.M. gold spot price recorded last year turned out to be only $1,791.75.
The third largest bank in the world, BNP Paribas, isn’t too hot about precious metals’ prospects in the near-term either. Here’s what the Dow Jones Newswires had to say about the Paris-headquartered banking group and gold on the FOX Business website Thursday:
BNP Paribas Friday cut its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, but said it expects the metal to trade back above $1,600/oz in six months.
The bank now sees gold averaging $1,580 a troy ounce this year, down 5% on its previous forecast. In 2014, it expects gold to average $1,520/oz, also down 5% on its earlier outlook.
In my opinion, the fundamentals supporting higher gold prices appear intact.
Which they have for quite some time now.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sources:
“Deutsche Bank cuts 2013 outlook for gold prices.” Reuters. 10 May 2013. (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/deutsche-bank-cuts-2013-outlook-for-gold-prices/articleshow/19989072.cms). 10 May 2013.
“BNP Paribas Cuts Gold Outlook, But Sees $1,600/oz Retaken in 6 Months.” Dow Jones Newswires. 10 May 2013. (http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/05/10/bnp-paribas-cuts-gold-outlook-but-sees-1600oz-retaken-in-6-months/). 10 May 2013.
Jim Rogers Predicts Gold ‘Will Go Much, Much Higher’
I just got done reading an insightful article on the London branch website of U.S.-based investment research firm Morningstar. Legendary investor Jim Rogers was being interviewed by Morningstar’s Chris Menon concerning his thoughts about investing in gold. Here is an excerpt from their exchange:
MENON: Over what time horizon should investors expect to make money by investing now?
ROGERS: Certainly, over the course of ten years gold will go much, much higher because I don’t see any possibility that governments are going to stop printing money in the next decade. And as long as that’s going to happen then gold is certainly going to go higher and probably much higher.
The former investing partner of George Soros also shared his views on purported gold manipulation, whether or not gold’s recent plummet in price is a buying opportunity, and the various vehicles for investing in the precious metal.
As for Rogers himself? He tells Menon he likes coins (something I’ve blogged about before)
You can read the entire interview on the Morningstar (UK) site here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff On GDP Calculation ‘Makeover,’ Delaying Our ‘Day Of Reckoning,’ And Gold Speculators
Lots of catching up going on around here today. I just got finished watching Peter Schiff’s latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital zeroed-in on the “makeover” in calculating U.S. gross domestic product, delaying our “financial reckoning day,” and the situation small speculators may find themselves in after helping fuel gold’s price drop the other week. Regarding GDP, Schiff pointed out the following in yesterday’s video blog post:
When the government gets around to delivering the news for the second quarter, the U.S. economy is going to be quite a bit larger than it was during the fourth quarter. Now, it’s not going to be because we’re actually more productive, it’s because the government is going to launch a brand new methodology for computing the GDP. They’re going to change the way they’ve been doing it all these years. And they’re going to start to include a bunch of things that in the past, they never included. They’re going to include things that no other country includes when they calculate their GDP. And as a result of this makeover, these brand new additions, I think instantaneously the U.S. economy is going to be 3 percent larger. That’s a big number. It’s like 4 or 500 billion dollars of GDP is going to be conjured out of thin air just based on the change in the methodology for computating GDP.
You know, this is what the government does. They change the way they compute statistics. Unemployment’s too high? Okay, we’ll calculate it another way. Now it’s not as high. Inflation’s too high? Wait a minute, let’s find another way to calculate the inflation rate. Oh look, we’ve solved the inflation problem- there’s not that much inflation.
Now, the government wants the economy to appear bigger. Why? Well, because it makes the debt-to-GDP look smaller. A lot of people are talking about debt-to-GDP now. Well, if they can make the GDP larger by figuring out another way to calculate it, well now they can make that ratio appear better.
Also, people are talking about government spending as a share of GDP. Okay, let’s make the GDP larger, and that means that government spending has now come down as a share of this larger number.
Schiff, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust and “Panic of ’08,” had this to say about the coming U.S. financial crash:
The fact of the matter is, governments are borrowing too much, they’re printing too much, they’re spending too much, and it’s all in a vain attempt to try to artificially stimulate an economy that’s been overstimulated, and to delay the “day of reckoning.” And the problem is, the longer they delay it, the more we have to reckon with. And, ultimately, we’ve going to have to pay a huge price for the fact that we didn’t deal with these problems sooner, rather than later.
“Slow ‘growth’,GDP makeover, Keynesians demand more debt and inflation”
YouTube Video
Finally, Schiff, who’s also the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, talked about gold’s recent price drop, who he thought was behind it, and what may be in store for them. From the video post:
I think the major selling in the metals market has come from the small speculator that trades on the futures market, that trades on the ETF. That’s where all the selling has been. The small speculators. I don’t think the larger investors have cashed in. They’re probably holding on. And the real buyers, the buyers in the physical market- who are not just trying to jump on a moving train to try and catch a small move because they want to get in on something that’s going up- the physical demand has been ongoing and consistent for years. But you have had some of the “Johnny Come Lately” hot money among smaller speculators. They’ve jumped on, they’re the ones that have sold, they cashed out. In fact, I think you have a lot of small speculators that are now short gold, that sold into the lows, and that are holding onto these positions with losses. And we’ll see how long they can hold those losses as the price moves higher and we turn up the heat. I think a lot of those people that were quick to short the market are going to end up covering at much higher prices.
Good insights as usual from this “crash prophet.”
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
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