Crash Prophets

Jim Rogers On U.S. Stocks, Dollar, Markets, And Economy Under Trump

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers speculated about the economy under President Trump in a MarketWatch piece published this afternoon. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about:

-U.S. stocks- “He very much wants a trade war. And if that happens, sell everything”

-U.S. dollar- “This is a good time to add dollars.” According to reporter Sue Chang, Rogers believes “the greenback will continue to rise through this year into 2018.”

-U.S. financial markets/economy- Chang added:

The one certainty that the markets can bet on, according to Rogers, will be more chaos under Trump, which may coincide with an economic turmoil on a global scale.

“We are overdue for a crisis,” he said, reiterating his steadfast view that debt levels across the world, including in the U.S. and China, continue to swell while interest rates are at historic lows…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that last summer Jim Rogers revealed he was basically short U.S. equities and long the dollar.

There was also this warning from the Singapore-based investor in May:

The world is facing some very complicated and difficult times. Once you become knowledgeable, you’re going to get very worried, which you should, and then you might get prepared, because not all of us are going to survive what’s coming in the next few years. I hope I survive, I hope everybody listening to this survives. But it’s going to be a very, very damaging and difficult time. So be worried. Be prepared

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Head on over to the MarketWatch site here to read the entire article.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Ron Paul: ‘We’ll Have A Downturn And Then That Will Be A Real Challenge For The New Administration’

Former Texas congressman and two-time Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul was on the CNBC TV show Futures Now last week speculating about the economy under the new Trump administration. Here’s what Paul thought about President Trump’s plans for the beginning of his term:

Well, it’s hard to dissect as many people have discovered because some days I hear one message and other days I hear a different message. But what I think comes through generally speaking is that there’s going to be a lot more spending. It doesn’t sound like he’s bashful about spending. He doesn’t seem to be very concerned about the deficit. And with this massive increase in infrastructure as well as the military, I think there’s going to be a lot more spending. I think the debt is going to be much bigger. I think that it will put more pressure on the Fed. I think there will be more monetizing of debt. And everybody has to think about what generally comes about when the economy is manipulated by the Federal Reserve- you have good times, and then you have to have bad times to compensate for the artificially good time. So we’ll have a downturn and then that will be a real challenge for the new administration.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Ron Paul: A ‘downturn’ will happen under Trump”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Related Reading: Martin Armstrong Says Old Gold Coins Better Than Bullion Against Confiscation

This evening I published a post entitled “Martin Armstrong: Old Gold Coins Better Than Bullion Against Confiscation” over on my other blog, Offshore Safe Deposit Boxes.

Head on over to that site here if you’re interested in hearing what the economist has to say.

Christopher E. Hill
Editor

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Sustained Effort To ‘Talk Down’ The Dollar Begins?

Gold and silver prices are surging today, no doubt related to statements made by President-elect Donald Trump concerning the strong U.S. dollar. Mark DeCambre reported on MarketWatch this morning:

The buck stops with Donald J. Trump. The president-elect, who has developed an early knack for challenging U.S. corporations via Twitter, reserved his most biting comments for the U.S. dollar, which vaulted 4% higher at its peak in the wake of the real estate billionaire’s Nov. 8 election victory over Hillary Clinton.

In a Friday interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the U.S. currency, which touched a more-than 14-year high about two weeks ago, has gotten “too strong,” especially considering the China’s yuan is “dropping like a rock.” “Our companies can’t compete with them now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us,” he told WSJ…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Trump’s comments may just be the opening volley in a sustained effort to “talk down” the greenback. Roger Blitz pointed out over on the Financial Times (UK) website early this morning:

Economists and currency analysts have speculated about the risks a robust US currency, which is trading at a 14-year high against a basket of its peers, poses to the president-elect’s growth strategy, and predicted that the incoming administration in Washington would soon start talking down the dollar.

The first inklings of that tactic emerged in an interview Mr Trump gave to the Wall Street Journal…

That was echoed by Anthony Scaramucci, a senior member of Mr Trump’s economic advisory council, in remarks made on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos about the US Federal Reserve. “The Fed has to be independent and we have to be careful about the rising currency,” Mr Scaramucci said…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

So, “all systems go” with precious metals then?

Maybe not, as certain “crash prophets” like Jim Rogers and Martin Armstrong believe it’s possible the U.S. currency might get even stronger due to foreign money pouring into the country to escape turmoil elsewhere, creating headwinds for any gold and silver price “lift-off.”

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Sources:

DeCambre, Mark. “Trump sends shiver through stock market with shot across dollar’s bow.” MarketWatch. 17 Jan. 2017. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-comments-on-too-strong-dollar-send-shivers-through-stock-market-2017-01-17). 17 Jan. 2017.

Blitz, Roger. “Dollar retreats on Trump’s concern over currency’s strength.” Financial Times. 17 Jan. 2017. (https://www.ft.com/content/b921b994-dca3-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce). 17 Jan. 2017.

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Martin Armstrong Covered By Washington’s Blog

When I last blogged about economist Martin Armstrong, I discussed his November 24 post on the Armstrong Economics Blog in which he talked about the elimination of cash and his belief “the United States will most likely break apart by 2036.” Disturbing stuff.

Like I’ve said before- for me, the jury’s still out on Armstrong. However, Washington’s Blog, which bills itself as “Real-Time, Well-Researched and Actionable News on America and the World,” published an insightful piece on the man and his forecasts back on December 30. From that post:

Martin Armstrong is a controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events … more or less to the day.

Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best. Armstrong credits a computer program he created (which he calls “Socrates”) for the accuracy of his forecasting.

Armstrong’s background is even more dramatic because he was jailed for 11 years on trumped-up allegations of contempt, fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. Armstrong was ultimately released without any charges, and – as the documentary The Forecaster explains – the 11-year imprisonment was a way to try to pressure him to hand over his forecasting program.

Washington’s Blog sent a reporter to Armstrong’s annual conference in Orlando, Florida, to see what all the buzz is about …

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Washington” noted Armstrong’s take on:

-Capital flows (declining)
-Debt (private superior to government)
-Europe (more chaos dead-ahead)
-U.S. stocks (bubble coming, then bust)
-European Union (Britain will survive because of Brexit)
-Cash (being eliminated by goverments for taxation purposes, negative interest rates)
-Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, or FATCA (negative impact on global economy, yet positive for taxation)
-Politicians (self-interested, greedy bastards)

Read all about it on Washington’s Blog here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Robert Shiller On Trump, Economy: ‘He Might Do Something Good’

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller was on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box yesterday talking about the state of the U.S. economy and the potential impact President-elect Donald Trump might have on it. The Yale University professor- who correctly called the dot-com and housing busts of the last decade- told viewers:

Well, the economy is looking strong. But at the expense of still near-zero interest rates. So it’s not normally healthy. And it relies on an institution, and Janet Yellen, that’s none too friendly with Donald Trump. So, I think it’s just a very uncertain time…

Regarding a “Trump Effect,” Dr. Shiller observed:

I think Trump is for many people an inspiration. He’s pro-business. Think big. Live large. That’s Trump. And to some extent that communicates to homebuyers as well as other investors… We’re in a revolutionary time. We don’t know what Trump is going to do. We know one thing- he’s got tremendous self confidence. And he doesn’t believe experts. Or he doesn’t just routinely believe them. So we’re going to see some big changes. It’s not just monetary- whether they raise interest rates another 50 basis points. It might be something more fundamental that comes up about how the Fed is even designed…


“Trump exciting ‘animal spirits’ in housing: Robert Shiller”
CNBC Video

Shiller also added this:

I didn’t vote for Trump. We’ve got him. Let’s hope for the best. He might do something good.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rickards: ‘We’re Going To Go Into A Recession Or The Stock Market Is Going To Have A Very Severe Correction’

Marc Faber isn’t the only “crash prophet” who realizes the financial environment U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could inherit is significantly different than what Ronald Reagan encountered in 1981. Back on December 5 I blogged about James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author, who was on RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) the prior week informing listeners of the following:

Less regulation, lower taxes, and a lot more infrastructure spending. This was Ronald Reagan’s playbook. This is what Ronald Reagan did in 1981 with a lot of success. But there are big differences, reasons to believe Trump will not be as successful. Namely because when Reagan came in, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio- the amount of debt relative to our economy- was 35 percent. Today it’s almost 105 percent. Reagan had inflation of 20 percent. Trump has it close to zero. In other words, Reagan had a lot of tailwinds– inflation had to come down, interest rates had to come down, he had fiscal space to run up the debt. Trump has headwinds

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last Tuesday, Rickards appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one Martin. I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

CNBC anchor Martin Soong asked his guest, “What is it going to take to cause these two outcomes- what’s the trigger going to be?” Rickards replied:

First of all, it’s already happening. There’s basically a head-long collision coming between perception and reality. So what’s the perception? The market’s rising on the Trump reflation trade. So, Trump wants to cut taxes. Steve Bannon’s talking to his advisors about a trillion dollars of infrastructure spending, cutting regulations. So all these things are viewed to be highly stimulative. So that’s why the market’s going up… But with the Fed, they’re thinking of two things. Number one, they believe in the Phillips Curve… With unemployment at 4.6 percent and that kind of stimulus coming, they know monetary policy acts with a lag- they want to get out ahead of inflation. So they’re on track to raise rates. By the way, they want to raise them anyway independent of this because they’ve got to raise them so they can cut them in the next recession. So the Fed’s on track to raise. The market expects stimulus. But here’s the point. The stimulus is not going to come. Congress has already said tax cuts have to be revenue neutral- that’s going to take away the stimulative effect. They’re going to balk at more spending. We have $20 trillion of debt. A 104 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. So we’re not going to get this trillion dollars of spending. And we’re in the eighth year of an expansion Martin. Keynesian stimulus- if it works at all, it works at the beginning of an expansion or in a recession. Not after 8 years. You don’t get much bang for the buck.


“Fed to reverse course by year-end: Expert”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Survival And Prosperity
Est. 2010, Chicagoland, USA
Christopher E. Hill, Editor

Successor to Boom2Bust.com
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