Currencies

Peter Schiff: Invest Overseas, Buy Commodities To Avoid Either U.S. Stock, Dollar Plummet

Turning to “crash prophet” Peter Schiff this afternoon, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital was recently interviewed by Scott Gamm of TheStreet. Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, echoed colleague Jim Rogers in warning about a future bear market in U.S. stocks. From the exchange:

THESTREET: Peter, it’s been an incredible record run here. And the levels we’re seeing now even with this slight pullback were record highs not too long ago. So, what do you say?
SCHIFF: Well, the bubble keeps getting bigger. Donald Trump called it himself as a candidate. He said it was a big, fat, ugly bubble. He was right then. He’s wrong now because now he denies it’s a bubble because he’s now the President and so it’s his bubble. And so he’d rather it be a bull market. But the valuations here really are extreme. The complacency is also extreme. I mean, investors are willing to pay very high prices and have very little worry (chuckle) that the stock market is going to go down. And people have very short memories. I’ve mean, we’ve had two major 50 percent declines in the stock market this century, since 2000. So we’ve had the market cut in half twice and it can easily happen again, yet nobody seems concerned. And I think one of the reasons is because the last two times the market went down the Fed was able to bail out investors to bet on one bubble by inflating a bigger one. So a lot of investors may have been conditioned to believe that even if the market implodes, if they hold on, they’ll get their money back. But the third time might not be the charm. It’s possible that the Fed can’t blow a bubble big enough to bail out investors this time…
THESTREET: So do you think that tide kind of turns in the next year?
SCHIFF: Hey, I don’t know. There’s no way to know. I mean, I think Donald Trump has nominated somebody who will try and do his best to keep the air in the bubble- cut rates, QE 4. But at some point, the market forces will overwhelm the Fed. The market will go down. And if it doesn’t go down the dollar will collapse instead. But either way, you’re going to see the real value of U.S. stocks come way down, whether it happens nominally or not. And I have a feeling that if the Fed prints enough money to prevent the market from going down dramatically, then the real losses will be even bigger because of the implosion of the U.S. dollar.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

When asked about advice for investors as to where to put their money right now if they’re worried about U.S. stocks, the author of The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy – How to Save Yourself and Your Country told viewers:

People who are in the U.S. market are overlooking much better returns from much better valuation levels that are happening overseas. So I think people should take advantage of the overpriced U.S. stock market, the overpriced U.S. dollar, and sell, and move money abroad. Get into the international markets- developed and emerging. Get into the commodities space. Look at oil hitting a new two-year high again today. This is going on in commodities across the board. We are coming off of major bear markets. We’re in the infancy of new bull markets. And I think the dollar is about to get killed. This is the first year in many years now that the dollar is down. But I think it’s the first of many. I think the dollar could fall for the next 5 to 10 years in a major, major bear market taking the dollar to all-time record lows. And this will enable enormous profits for people who are invested outside the U.S. in the right currencies, the right assets, the right companies. That’s what I think we’re doing with our clients at Euro Pacific Capital and that’s certainly what I’m doing with my own money.


“Peter Schiff Slams Bitcoin, Federal Reserve and Antitrust Regulators”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. Christopher E. Hill, the creator/Editor of this blog, is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented on the site.)

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Jim Rogers: ‘I Want To Own More Silver But I Want To Own It At A Lower Price Which I Expect’

Tonight I just got finished reading the transcript of a February 9, 2017, interview of well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers by Macro Voices’ Erik Townsend. As usual, the former investing partner of George Soros discussed a number of topics, including:

U.S. Stocks- “Happy days are here” if President Trump carries out those “wonderful things” he said he would (cut taxes, rebuild infrastructure, bring $3 trillion home which U.S. companies have overseas) and avoids trade wars

U.S. Dollar- Despite the correction, “it’s going to go too high, may turn into a bubble, at which point I hope I’m smart enough to sell it because at some point the market forces are going to cause the dollar to come back down because people are going to realize, oh my gosh, this is causing a lot of turmoil, economic problems in the world and it’s damaging the American economy.”

Junk Bonds- “I am shorting junk bonds still”

Precious Metals- “I’m still sitting and watching. I want to own more gold. I want to own more silver but I want to own it at a lower price which I expect.”

“War on Cash”- “Probably we are not going to have as many freedoms as we have now even though we are already losing our freedoms at a significant pace.”

The Singapore-based investor mentioned in a separate interview earlier this month regarding India’s demonetization efforts:

If governments do away with cash, it gives them more power and control.

Townsend’s interview was of Rogers was thorough and interesting, particularly that bit about silver. Head on over to the Macro Voices website here to listen to/read their exchange.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Wadhwa, Puneet. “Modi is doing everything he can to get votes: Jim Rogers.” Business Standard. 2 Feb. 2017. (http://www.business-standard.com/budget/article/modi-is-doing-everything-he-can-to-get-votes-jim-rogers-117020200389_1.html). 13 Feb. 2017.

Rogers’ latest book…

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IMF Chief: ‘Optimistic’ About U.S. Economy While Stronger Dollar, Higher Interest Rates ‘Worrying’

Yesterday I caught the following on the website of Agence France-Presse. AFP reported:

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde on Sunday voiced optimism for US economic growth under President Donald Trump but warned it could herald trouble for the rest of the world.

“From the little we know, and I will insist on the little we know, because this is really work in progress… but from the little we hear, we have reasons to be optimistic about economic growth in the United States,” Lagarde said at the annual World Government Summit in Dubai.

Lagarde predicted tax reform and more investment in infrastructure were both likely under Trump…

“Now that’s the good news,” said Lagarde. “The more worrying news, if you will, is that it will have consequences on the rest of the world, and we are seeing it.”

She highlighted the strength of the dollar against other currencies, predicting a hike in interest rates regulated by the Federal Reserve.

“That’s a tightening that will be difficult on the global economy and for which economies will have to prepare,” said Lagarde.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Hmm. Could the Federal Reserve use Lagarde’s concern regarding higher U.S. interest rates making things “difficult” for the global economy as one reason not to raise rates next month?

The other weekend, Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff claimed in his YouTube vlog:

The reason the Fed didn’t give a clue that it might be raising rates in March, is because it has no intention of doing so.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

“IMF’s Lagarde ‘optimistic’ about U.S. economy.” Agence France-Presse. 12 Feb. 2017. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/imfs-lagarde-optimistic-us-economy-104123263.html) 13 Feb. 2017.

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Peter Schiff Predicts Resumption Of Dollar Decline, Gold Rally This Week

It’s been a while, but Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff added a new entry to The Schiff Report YouTube vlog on Saturday. Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, talked about a number of subjects, including his belief that the Federal Reserve has no intention of raising rates in March, “a lot” of dollar selling is coming, and the gold rally will resume. From the video:

The reason the Fed didn’t give a clue that it might be raising rates in March, is because it has no intention of doing so…

I think the trade deficits are going up. I think the budget deficits are going up. Certainly to the extent that we get some tax cuts. We continue to get more government spending. If we get more government spending under Trump on the military, on the border, on infrastructure. Rising trade deficits. Rising budget deficits. Rising inflation. All of this is going to be a big negative for the dollar. And of course, everybody was so loaded up long the dollar, I think the people who own the dollar- there’s a lot of dollar selling that’s coming. And I think the dollar bulls are going to end up losing a lot of money…

Since the beginning of this year the Dow is barely up more than 1 percent. You can contrast that to the price of gold which is up 6 percent so far this year. Look at gold stocks. Gold stocks are up 17 percent as a group so far in 2017. 17 percent. Everybody’s talking about the Dow. No one’s talking about gold stocks. In fact, gold stocks were the number one performing sector last year, by far. Wasn’t even close. And they’re already by far the number one performing sector this year. But nobody really wants to talk about it…

I think we’re going to see a resumption of the dollar decline and gold rally next week…


“Rising Unemployment Is Just The Excuse The Fed’s Been Waiting For”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Schiff’s latest book…

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Jim Rogers: ‘Next Period Of Economic Turmoil Is Going To Be Worse Than What We’ve Seen In Our Lifetime’

A couple of days ago I came across an interview with well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers that was published on The Globe and Mail (Canada) website back on January 26. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund answered a number of questions, including one about expressing “some pessimism about the world, particularly the U.S.” Rogers pointed out:

Every four to seven years since the beginning of the Republic, we’ve had economic turmoil. It has now been eight years since we had our last problem. We’re overdue. Mr. Trump has sworn trade wars with Mexico, China and a few others. If that happens, it’s all over. Trade wars have always led to bankruptcies—and often have led to wars, as well…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Rogers added this warning later on in the exchange:

The next period of economic turmoil is going to be worse than what we’ve seen in our lifetime…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

When asked how he prepared financially for such upheaval, the Singapore-based investor replied:

I’m very long the U.S. dollar. It is not a safe haven- the U.S. is the biggest debtor nation in history- but people think it is, so there will be flight into it. It might even turn into a bubble, depending on how bad the turmoil is. Let’s hope I’m smart enough to sell. My plan then is to buy gold

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Greenback, then gold for Mr. Rogers.

Back on December 7, 2016, I blogged about a different interview in which this gameplan was mentioned.

On January 23, I brought up a MarketWatch article featuring Jim Rogers in which markets reporter Sue Chang wrote:

“This is a good time to add dollars,” said Rogers, who believes that the greenback will continue to rise through this year into 2018

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The Chairman of Rogers Holding also talked about where he sees the best investment opportunities now and other interesting subjects in the insightful Globe and Mail piece, which you can read on their website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Numismatic News: ‘Precious Metals, On Average, Have Outperformed U.S. Stocks Since The End Of 1999’

“Past performance is not indicative of future results.” That being said, I spotted the following over on the Numismatic News website tonight. Pat Heller reported Thursday:

While much attention is now focused on U.S. stock indices reaching record levels, only a handful of people are aware that precious metals, on average, have outperformed U.S. stocks since the end of 1999.

As measured in U.S. dollars, here are how various asset classes have performed from Dec. 31, 1999, to Dec. 30, 2016

Gold +299.0%
Silver +193.5%
Russell 2000 +168.9%
MS-63 $20 Saint-Gaudens +147.9%
MS-63 $20 Liberty +139.8%
Platinum +111.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average +71.9%
Switzerland Franc +56.4%
MS-65 Morgan dollar +54.4%
Palladium +54.1%
Standard & Poors 500 +52.4%
NASDAQ +32.3%
China yuan +19.2%
Australia dollar +9.8%
Canada dollar +8.2%
Euro +4.5%
Japan yen -12.7%
Great Britain pound -23.6%
Brazil real -44.3%
Mexico peso -54.3%
South Africa rand -55.0%…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Interesting. Note the performance of numismatic coins ($20 Saint-Gaudens, $20 Liberty, Morgan dollar) in that list.

The inclusion of “MS-65 $20 Saint-Gaudens”- popular with numismatic gold investors- in the analysis would have been neat to see.

I just blogged about a MarketWatch piece on rare coin investing this Tuesday, which pointed out:

Between 1979 and 2014, the most recent year for which data is available, coins with a minimum score of 65 posted an average annual return of 11.9%, according to a study by Penn State University. That’s near the average annual return of 13% posted by equities and more than twice the 5.5% average annual gain of gold bullion. Coins with a lower score, between 63 and 65, had an average annual return of 10.1%.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Getting back to that Numismatic News piece, Heller also discussed long-term performance of some major currencies against an ounce of gold and recent demand for precious metals. An informative article, which you can read in its entirety on the publication’s website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Bix Weir Predicts 2017 Derivatives Implosion, Trump To Crash System Then Rebuild

“Donald Trump’s prediction that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a ‘very massive recession’ hit a wall of skepticism on Sunday from economists who questioned the Republican presidential front-runner’s calculations…

‘I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble,’ he said.”

-Reuters.com, April 3, 2016

Precious metals and financial expert Bix Weir recently appeared on former network/investigative correspondent Greg Hunter’s latest project, Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (“Analyzing the News to Give You A Clear Picture of What’s Really Going On”). In an interview published Tuesday, Weir warned of a coming derivatives implosion and dropped a bombshell when he predicted U.S. President Donald Trump would crash the system, then rebuild. From the exchange between Hunter and Weir:

HUNTER: Isn’t this the year we get the derivatives implosion?
WEIR: Oh definitively. People keep saying, “Well, if Greece leaves the EU, it’s not going to affect the rest of Europe.” Yes it will. It will destroy all the debt based on Greek bonds. It will destroy all the banks- Deutsche Bank, great example. If Deutshce Bank goes, J.P. Morgan goes, Citbank goes, all the banks go. And then the derivative implosion happens. And that’s alway been kind of the home-built nuclear bomb in the financial system is the derivative market- the hundreds of trillions, quadrillions, in derivatives that are so dependent upon third-parties staying in business. Because they are the counter-party to Deutsche Bank, and Citibank, and J.P. Morgan. Once one large derivative holder goes, they all go. We almost saw it in 2008. I think we’re real close to it again. I think Trump is going to push that ticket…
HUNTER: Do you think that we’re close to this derivatives explosion, this implosion, right now? Do you think it’s this year?
WEIR: I do think it’s this year. I think it can happen at any moment. I think Trump has long said that we’re in some huge bubbles and they’ve got to pop. He doesn’t want them popping after he’s fixed half the things in America. So, I would assume he’s going to pop them very soon, in the first few months of his administration. And we’re into that now. There are certain people that I know he needs to get in place. Because the popping of this bubble- this is the big mother of all bubbles.
HUNTER: So he is rushing to get his people in place so he can execute his plan. You’re saying he has a grand plan. That things aren’t just going to happen willy-nilly. You’re saying he’s going to get his people in place and he’s going to force the collapse, the reorganization.
WEIR: Yes. But it’s not his grand plan. This is the plan of the “good guys” that I’ve been talking about…
HUNTER: So why do you think we’re close to an economic reset, an implosion, a derivatives problem, the whole system resetting, changing, whatever. Why do you think we are close?
WEIR: Well, I know that Donald Trump is in charge of the exchange stabilization fund. So it’s basically he has the keys to ending this market rigging game. And once you end the market rigging game, then you can’t support the stock market. And everything has to go to its true fair market value, with real trades, no more derivatives. So Trump can do it. The question is, “Does he want to?” And it’s not just Trump. It’s the people who are behind Trump. I call them the “good guys.”
HUNTER: The Pentagon.
WEIR: Well, there’s people at the Pentagon. Within the military. Patriots. Going back since the sixties a lot of these guys are looking for a little retribution on the “bad guys” taking out Kennedy. But all this goes back to- what does Trump want to do? Trump and his people. Do they want to fix things? Go down that road to starting to fix things with the bubbles still there, with the Fed still printing money. Or, does he really want to fix them. Which means you crash the system first, and then you rebuild. I think it’s the latter. I think he’s trying to get people in place, and then he will crash the system and rebuild.


“Bix Weir-Trump Will Crash System Then Rebuild”
YouTube Video

Weir, who has a presence on the Web at RoadtoRoota.com, recommends selling “anything that has a third-party between you and your hard asset” like stocks and bonds, and buying Bitcoin (“get it out of the system”), gold, and silver- particularly silver. He concluded:

If you’re looking to make money, silver and Bitcoin- you can’t go wrong.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’d heard of Bix Weir before, but never read/listened to anything by him before. Very interesting, to say the least.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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