Debt Crisis
World’s Largest Active Bond Manager Predicts More Than 60 Percent Chance Of Global Recession In Next 3 To 5 Years
There’s been plenty of talk the past two days in financial/investing circles about a forecast made by Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s largest active bond manager. In a report posted on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s website, PIMCO portfolio manager Saumil Parikh warned that investors should cut risk amid a more than 60 percent chance of a global recession in the next 3 to 5 years. From Parikh’s “A Secular View of Assets: Surfing the Wedge”:
For the secular period ahead, we expect a slowing rate of growth globally. This view encompasses a sustained deceleration in emerging market growth, continued stagnation in European growth and steady but slow U.S. growth. We also expect increasing competition for growth among the U.S., Europe, Japan and the newly developed Asian countries, introducing trade and currency frictions into the secular economic fundamentals mix.
We expect global inflation to remain well behaved for the next three to five years for two reasons. First, slower growth is likely to manifest through diminished aggregate demand growth relative to steady aggregate supply growth. And second, the global industrial commodity cycle is expected to turn from its investment phase to its production phase.
We expect global economic volatility to rise. Statistically speaking, the global economy experiences a recession every six years or so, and the frequency of global recessions tends to increase when global indebtedness is high and falling as opposed to when indebtedness is low and rising. Given that the last global recession was four years ago, and also given that the global economy is significantly more indebted today than it was four years ago, we believe there is now a greater than 60% probability that we will experience another global recession in the next three to five years.
Finally, we expect the distribution of global growth to shift somewhat over the secular horizon. Commodities are likely to garner a diminishing share of global growth as supply growth overcomes demand growth. Capital is expected to maintain its share of global growth as multi-factor productivity remains steady. And labor is expected to gain shares of global growth from this point forth as declining demographics begin to diminish the supply of productive labor relative to demand.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Interesting stuff. Just keep in mind that it comes from the world’s largest active bond manager.
Also, I question Parikh’s prediction that commodity supply growth will overcome demand growth. Like Jim Rogers used to keep asking- where’s all this new supply going to come from? I understand financing for a number of commodity exploration/recovery projects shriveled up and disappeared after the “Panic of ’08.”
You can read Parikh’s entire piece on the PIMCO website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Mayor Rahm Emanuel Won’t Say No To Property Tax Hike To Bailout Chicago Public Schools
One of the reasons my girlfriend and I decided to move out of the city of Chicago is because we knew it was only a matter of time before mounting financial woes would result in less government services (public safety was particularly on our minds), more fees, and higher taxes.
And speaking of higher taxes for Chicagoans, I spotted this on the Chicago Sun-Times website yesterday. Fran Spielman and Lauren Fitzpatrick wrote Tuesday:
Chicago homeowners and businesses have grown accustomed to up-to-the-limit school property tax increases, but they might be forced to endure even more pain to bail the Chicago Public Schools out of a $1 billion shortfall.
On Tuesday, Mayor Rahm Emanuel refused to rule out a worst-case scenario that his handpicked school team has already discussed with legislative leaders: asking the Illinois General Assembly to lift the property tax cap to pave the way for an even bigger increase than would otherwise be allowed.
Emanuel said he would turn first to yet another round of administrative cuts, now that the Legislature has adjourned without easing pension payments bearing down on CPS.
But, after that, he’s making no promises to steer clear of a property tax increase, which many view as the third-rail of politics.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
The $1 billion Chicago Public Schools budget shortfall is just one of a number of financial problems facing the “Windy City” which have been on my radar for quite some time now. I blogged back on September 13, 2012:
By now, many of you have probably heard about the teachers strike going on in Chicago. Day 4 and counting. While many Chicago public school teachers are probably worth every red cent of the $71,017 median salary they command- and more- when all things are considered, considering the precarious financial situation of the Chicago Public Schools, a larger crisis looks to be right around the corner. Rosalind Rossi wrote on the Chicago Sun-Times website yesterday:
As school and union leaders wrestled over a new teachers contract Tuesday, a huge, nagging question loomed in the background:
Once they finish, how will Chicago Public Schools pay for any new contract they forge?
There’s no easy give in the budget, because CPS already depleted its rainy day “reserve” fund to help plug a $665 million deficit this school year.
And if officials eke out enough cuts to pay for the cost of teacher raises this school year, a $1 billion deficit — and no “reserve” cushion — awaits them next school year, when a pension relief package expires.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Less government services, more fees, and much higher taxes- a scenario that’s begun to be played out in Chicago.
And look for it to pick up steam in the coming years.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Spielman, Fran and Fitzpatrick, Lauren. “Emanuel won’t rule out property tax hike to fill CPS budget hole.” Chicago Sun-Times. 11 June 2013. (http://www.suntimes.com/20679323-761/emanuel-wont-rule-out-property-tax-hike-to-fill-cps-budget-hole.html). 13 June 2012.
The Survival Podcast’s Jack Spirko Predicts U.S. Boom, Then Bust Probably ‘10 Years Into The Future Or More’
The other podcast material I said I was going to talk about today comes from The Survival Podcast, hosted by modern survivalist Jack Spirko. Also selected as a “Resource Of The Week,” I wrote back in March 2011 about TSP:
I can’t remember how I first heard about the podcast- but I’m glad I did. Spirko publishes new episodes several times a week. And they’re chock-full of useful information for the novice through expert homesteader/prepper/survivalist- or someone who just wants to be more self-sufficient in their daily living.
But TSP doesn’t focus solely on preparedness/survival topics. Spirko tosses economics and finance in there as well. And listening to him for a few years now- he undoubtedly gets it. Big picture included.
And here’s what the host of The Survival Podcast had to say about the “big picture” back on May 9 in episode 1127, “Risk Assessments and Readiness Audits”:
I do believe our biggest threat is economic. I believe that this country is in store for an economic boom. Yeah, I said boom. If you’ve not been listening to me, I think we’re about to have one of the best periods ever in the history of the country from an economic standpoint. Sadly, it will be driven by both fake and real factors. Fake economic factors, real energy factors. But that can only go on so long. And sooner or later we are going to get to a point where inflation, the devaluation of money, the ridiculous level of debt and the interest there on it, do their full-scale, whole cancer-style damage, eat the patient from the inside, and we wake up to terminal financial illness as a nation.
But that’s not happening tomorrow. That’s not happening next year. That’s not even happening in the next 5 years. There could be recessions and things in the middle. But that day is probably at this point 10 years into the future or more.
And I don’t claim to be Nostradamus. I don’t know the exact timeline. I can just do math and can say with mathematical certainty this system at some point must fail.
“10 years into the future or more”
I think I just heard a collective sigh of relief from many readers.
Not so fast.
Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that I’ve been warning about a coming U.S. financial crash for almost 6 years (2007-2010 Boom2Bust.com included). I’ve never thrown a “start” date out there because I’m well-aware the central bankers excel at “kicking the can down the road.” Look at the “Panic of 2008” and how that was “papered over”- for the time being. Spirko knows that our “financial reckoning day” can keep getting pushed back- a lot longer than many of his listeners might think is possible. And I think that was what he was trying to convey with that “10 years into the future or more” bit. I’m pretty sure he didn’t throw that out there to say “all’s well,” or that any new preparedness plan and program should incorporate a 10-year timeframe until the economy and larger financial system hits the proverbial brick wall.
Like I said before- Jack Spirko gets it. If he thinks the U.S. is heading for a boom, then a bust a decade or so out, then it’s a forecast worth considering.
In the meantime, he’d probably agree with me when I say it might be wise to take advantage of the “good times” to get squared-away for what’s in store for us down the road.
You can listen to the podcast of episode 1127 here via The Survival Podcast website.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
CBO: ObamaCare’s Gross Costs Over 10 Years May Be Nearly Twice White House’s Original Projections
Universal healthcare. A noble idea- if a nation can afford it.
As for “ObamaCare,” the more time that passes since the Affordable Care Act was enacted on March 23, 2010, the more expensive the projected numbers are getting.
Howard Sheppard reported on the website of Central Pennsylvania FOX affiliate WPMT FOX 43 yesterday:
The gross costs of the national healthcare law rammed through Congress by President Barack Obama will reach an estimated $1.76 trillion over 10 years – nearly twice the amount originally projected. The figure, which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revealed on Wednesday, is bound to cause embarrassment to the administration as it comes just as debate on “Obamacare” is starting to heat up again, two weeks before the Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on whether the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional…
Original White House estimates said the gross cost of the healthcare act would be $940 billion over a decade, but the CBO’s new figures raise that figure to a shade under $1.5 trillion. For the 10 years from 2013-2022 that increases even further to $1.76 trillion.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Back on March 1, I noted that according to a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report released February 26, ObamaCare will increase the long-term federal deficit by $6.2 trillion.
$6.2 trillion.
Considering the growing instability of the U.S. financial house of cards, one might wonder if the costs associated with universal health coverage won’t be the straw that eventually breaks the camel’s back.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Sheppard, Howard. “CBO: Obamacare estimated cost nearly double to $1.7 trillion.” FOX Central Pennsylvania. 16 May 2013. (http://fox43.com/2013/05/16/cbo-obamacare-estimated-cost-nearly-double-to-1-7-trillion/#axzz2TYdCQnzp). 16 May 2013.
CEO Survey: Illinois 3rd Worst State In Which To Do Business
Last week, Chief Executive magazine announced the results of its 9th annual survey regarding the best and worst states in which to do business. From their website:
In its ninth annual survey of CEO opinion about the best and worst states in which to do business, 736 CEOs—the highest response on record—rendered their verdict. Business leaders were asked to grade states with which they are familiar on a variety of competitive metrics that CEOs themselves regard as critical. These include: 1) taxation and regulation; 2) quality of workforce; and 3) living environment. The tax and regulatory grade includes a measure of how CEOs grade a state’s attitude toward business, a key indicator.
The best states in which to do business?
1. Texas (9 consecutive years now)
2. Florida
3. North Carolina
4. Tennessee
5. Indiana
Nice job Indiana!
The “Top 5” were unchanged from last year.
And the worst states in which to do business?
1. California
2. New York
3. Illinois
4. Massachusetts
5. New Jersey
Nice going Illinois. Second year in a row in that position.
The faster Illinois residents dump incompetent and ill-intentioned lawmakers, the sooner the state will be able to make headway on a number of real issues. Avoiding insolvency (somewhat of a stretch at this point) and job retention/attraction readily come to mind here.
By the way, our neighbors to the north- Wisconsin- climbed three spots in this latest survey to number 17. JP Donlon wrote on May 6:
More and more states are getting the pro-growth message. Wisconsin governor Scott Walker’s position is typical of this new thinking. “I’ve never seen a store get more customers by raising its prices, but I’ve seen customers knock down doors when they cut prices,” he says.
You can view the rankings of all 50 U.S. states on the Chief Executive website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Donlon, JP. “States More Aggressive in Competing With One Another.” Chief Executive. 6 May 2013. (http://chiefexecutive.net/states-more-aggressive-in-competing-with-one-another-2013). 13 May 2013.
Cook County Public Pension Crisis Worsens
Back on April 9, 2012, I blogged about the public pension crisis in Cook County, Illinois. From that post:
Chicago, Cook County, and Illinois- a trifecta of serious financial concerns.
Hal Dardick talked about all three entities and their growing pension problems early this morning on the Chicago Tribune website:
Cook County’s pension fund will go broke in 26 years without changes that could include an increase in employee contributions and later retirement ages, according to a new analysis.
The report, done under the direction of county Commissioner Bridget Gainer in her role as chairwoman of the board’s pension-oversight panel, shows that it’s not just state and city pension funds that have perilous futures.
Even if the county fund generally is in better shape, Gainer said, that doesn’t mean the county can continue to ignore a funding gap that had grown to $5.2 billion by the end of 2010. That’s seven times the size it was a decade earlier…
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
The public pension crisis in the country’s second most populous county has grown worse since I posted that, with the funding gap now having reached $6.79 billion. Paul Merrion revealed on the Crain’s Chicago Business website Wednesday:
Solvency of Cook County’s pension funds deteriorated in the last fiscal year, according to a new report, and county commissioners are pressing anew for reforms.
The county’s main Employees’ Annuity and Benefit Fund saw its pension debt grow to $6.79 billion, up $969.5 million last year and an increase of $1.6 billion in the gap between assets and liabilities since 2010. The plan is only 53.5 percent funded, down from 57.5 percent in fiscal 2011, and the fund is projected to be insolvent by 2034.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
I anticipate Cook County’s financial woes will make themselves known well before that 2034 date. County residents and businesses should plan accordingly.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Merrion, Paul. “Cook County pension woes worsen.” Crain’s Chicago Business. 8 May 2013. (http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130508/NEWS02/130509769/cook-county-pension-woes-worsenwww.sj-r.com). 10 May 2013.
Glenn Beck: ‘We Are The First Responders’
Glenn Beck, the conservative radio/television host, political commentator, and author, gave the keynote address at the National Rifle Association’s 2013 national convention that just wrapped up in Houston. Beck, who I actually met and spoke to briefly when I was in Dallas at the end of March for the FoodInsurance™ “Ready, Set, Prep” Summit, pointed out the following concerning the term “first responders” as he spoke about different firearms that “tell the story and teach the story of the 2nd Amendment.” From his speech:
9/11- Walter Reaver’s Revolver
September 11th, 2001. A moment in history that will define this generation. While victims were running away, men, were running into those buildings. Amazing men like young Walter Weaver, a member of the NYPD and an NRA life member. He was last seen in the World Trade Center trying to rescue people. He was in the lobby trying to free people trapped in an elevator. A servant fighting for the individual’s freedom until the very end.
After the towers fell and the nation mourned, we sifted through the rubble, this is all that was left as a reminder of Walter Weaver. A silent token of liberty.
Walter Weaver, I’m sure wouldn’t want to be called a hero.
He was simply an American.
He was an example of what we all should be—men, who just do the right thing when time calls our name.
When there is an emergency or trouble we are the ones that should run to help. We must be the action on the other end of the 911 call.
I don’t know, but I believe Walter Weaver would tell you that he wasn’t trained to be hero by the police academy.
But he was raised in a culture that taught him about self-sacrifice and to always do the right thing, even when no one else is watching. He had those things long before he wore a uniform.
How many of us can say that.
Good cops, bad cop, it doesn’t mean you take all the badges. It’s the people, not the badge.
As good as the policemen in our country are. When you are in trouble the average police response rate is 8 minutes; most crimes take less than one.
If a responsible citizen with a gun had been in that movie theater in Colorado, or if members in the audience in that theater were allowed to bring their gun into the theater and not leave them locked in their cars, how many lives would have been saved?
How many of the mourning, children would instead have been able to spend time over breakfast with their mom or dad this morning if someone good was allowed to have a gun?
While our politicians from the local to the federal level have spent us into oblivion, and our public services are being obliterated and our police force is being cut.
I will no longer accept the media falsehood nor reinforce it by calling our brave men and women in blue on our cities and streets first responders. It’s time for America to recognize WE are the first responders.
They are the 2nd responders, we are the first responders.
When there is trouble let us be the first on the scene to help.
Let us be the first responder when someone is sick or hungry or frightened.
Let us be the first to share our bread with the hungry; Let us be the first to open our hearts to the homeless poor; Let us be the first to remove the yoke of injustice.
I don’t know what America will choose. But for me and my family, I choose to stand with courage. I choose to stand with selflessness. I chose to stand with God with Malice toward none and charity to all.
That’s who we are.
Forget what the media says, I know that’s who we are.
You can read Glenn Beck’s entire speech here on GlennBeck.com.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
State Of Illinois Bankrupt By 2015?
While it’s “business as usual” for Illinois politicians, two influential groups grow increasingly-wary of the state’s financial situation. Paul Merrion reported on the Crain’s Chicago Business website back on April 22:
Most wealthy Chicago-area investors are optimistic about the global and national economic outlook, but many fear a downturn in the Illinois economy this year, a new survey finds.
The state’s financial well-being has 76 percent of local investors “very concerned,” while only 46 percent feel that way about the prospects for the U.S. economy, according to a survey by Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. A bit more than half (52 percent) said the state’s pension crisis was their top concern, and 58 percent foresee that the Illinois economy will get worse by year-end.
Speaking of the state’s public pension crisis, a pro-Illinois taxpayer group is warning it has the potential to bankrupt the State of Illinois. John Cody reported on the CBS Chicago website Tuesday:
A conservative watchdog group is warning of dark days ahead for the entire state unless Illinois mends it’s financial ways, and soon.
Taxpayers United President Jim Tobin, is essentially blaming Democrats with a two house super-majority for failing to act on pension reform reform.
“Illinois will be the first state to go bankrupt, unless pension reforms are implemented,” said Tobin.
And Tobin’s numbers suggest it’ll be sooner rather than later.
“Yeah, 2015 is about right,” said Tobin.
And yet, state lawmakers continue to fiddle (waste time on more trivial issues) while Illinois burns.
My prediction? Illinois residents should prepare themselves for a combination of more fees, taxes, and belt-tightening from and by the State. Most likely, sooner rather than later.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Merrion, Paul. “Rich Chicagoans fret about Illinois economy: survey.” Crain’s Chicago Business. 22 Apr. 2013. (http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130422/NEWS02/130419726/rich-chicagoans-fret-about-illinois-economy-survey). 3 May 2013.
Cody, John. “Conservative Watch Dog: Pensions Could Bankrupt Illinois By 2015.” CBS Chicago. 30 Apr. 2013. (http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/04/30/conservative-watch-dog-pensions-could-bankrupt-illinois-by-2015/). 3 May 2013.
Peter Schiff On GDP Calculation ‘Makeover,’ Delaying Our ‘Day Of Reckoning,’ And Gold Speculators
Lots of catching up going on around here today. I just got finished watching Peter Schiff’s latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital zeroed-in on the “makeover” in calculating U.S. gross domestic product, delaying our “financial reckoning day,” and the situation small speculators may find themselves in after helping fuel gold’s price drop the other week. Regarding GDP, Schiff pointed out the following in yesterday’s video blog post:
When the government gets around to delivering the news for the second quarter, the U.S. economy is going to be quite a bit larger than it was during the fourth quarter. Now, it’s not going to be because we’re actually more productive, it’s because the government is going to launch a brand new methodology for computing the GDP. They’re going to change the way they’ve been doing it all these years. And they’re going to start to include a bunch of things that in the past, they never included. They’re going to include things that no other country includes when they calculate their GDP. And as a result of this makeover, these brand new additions, I think instantaneously the U.S. economy is going to be 3 percent larger. That’s a big number. It’s like 4 or 500 billion dollars of GDP is going to be conjured out of thin air just based on the change in the methodology for computating GDP.
You know, this is what the government does. They change the way they compute statistics. Unemployment’s too high? Okay, we’ll calculate it another way. Now it’s not as high. Inflation’s too high? Wait a minute, let’s find another way to calculate the inflation rate. Oh look, we’ve solved the inflation problem- there’s not that much inflation.
Now, the government wants the economy to appear bigger. Why? Well, because it makes the debt-to-GDP look smaller. A lot of people are talking about debt-to-GDP now. Well, if they can make the GDP larger by figuring out another way to calculate it, well now they can make that ratio appear better.
Also, people are talking about government spending as a share of GDP. Okay, let’s make the GDP larger, and that means that government spending has now come down as a share of this larger number.
Schiff, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust and “Panic of ’08,” had this to say about the coming U.S. financial crash:
The fact of the matter is, governments are borrowing too much, they’re printing too much, they’re spending too much, and it’s all in a vain attempt to try to artificially stimulate an economy that’s been overstimulated, and to delay the “day of reckoning.” And the problem is, the longer they delay it, the more we have to reckon with. And, ultimately, we’ve going to have to pay a huge price for the fact that we didn’t deal with these problems sooner, rather than later.
“Slow ‘growth’,GDP makeover, Keynesians demand more debt and inflation”
YouTube Video
Finally, Schiff, who’s also the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, talked about gold’s recent price drop, who he thought was behind it, and what may be in store for them. From the video post:
I think the major selling in the metals market has come from the small speculator that trades on the futures market, that trades on the ETF. That’s where all the selling has been. The small speculators. I don’t think the larger investors have cashed in. They’re probably holding on. And the real buyers, the buyers in the physical market- who are not just trying to jump on a moving train to try and catch a small move because they want to get in on something that’s going up- the physical demand has been ongoing and consistent for years. But you have had some of the “Johnny Come Lately” hot money among smaller speculators. They’ve jumped on, they’re the ones that have sold, they cashed out. In fact, I think you have a lot of small speculators that are now short gold, that sold into the lows, and that are holding onto these positions with losses. And we’ll see how long they can hold those losses as the price moves higher and we turn up the heat. I think a lot of those people that were quick to short the market are going to end up covering at much higher prices.
Good insights as usual from this “crash prophet.”
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
City Of Chicago On Review For ‘Possible Downgrade’ By Moody’s
“We still have a very strong bond rating. Our fiscal position is getting better every year and we are aggressively managing our liabilities and obligations.”
-City of Chicago Comptroller Amer Ahmad, July 20, 2012, as noted in a July 22, 2012, Chicago Sun-Times article
I’ve been warning Survival And Prosperity readers for some time that the City of Chicago’s finances are not as peachy keen as City Hall would like outsiders to believe.
So much so, the City’s credit rating is on review for a possible downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. From the Moody’s website earlier today:
Moody’s has announced its final approach to the way it will analyze and adjust pension liabilities as part of its credit analysis of state and local governments. These changes reflect the rating agency’s view that pension obligations are a significant source of credit pressure for governments and warrant a more conservative view of the potential size of the obligations. As a result of this new approach, Moody’s has also placed the general obligation ratings of the cities of Chicago, Cincinnati, Minneapolis, and Portland, OR, and of 25 other US local governments and school districts on review for possible downgrade. The entities whose ratings have been placed on review have large adjusted net pension liabilities relative to their rating category…
Moody’s rates over 8,000 local governments in the United States. Less than 1% of those with general obligation or equivalent ratings have been placed under review because of the new pension adjustments.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Great. Chicago is in another “select group” it really doesn’t want to belong to these days.
You can read the entire announcement on the Moody’s website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
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