Derivatives

Bix Weir Predicts 2017 Derivatives Implosion, Trump To Crash System Then Rebuild

“Donald Trump’s prediction that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a ‘very massive recession’ hit a wall of skepticism on Sunday from economists who questioned the Republican presidential front-runner’s calculations…

‘I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble,’ he said.”

-Reuters.com, April 3, 2016

Precious metals and financial expert Bix Weir recently appeared on former network/investigative correspondent Greg Hunter’s latest project, Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (“Analyzing the News to Give You A Clear Picture of What’s Really Going On”). In an interview published Tuesday, Weir warned of a coming derivatives implosion and dropped a bombshell when he predicted U.S. President Donald Trump would crash the system, then rebuild. From the exchange between Hunter and Weir:

HUNTER: Isn’t this the year we get the derivatives implosion?
WEIR: Oh definitively. People keep saying, “Well, if Greece leaves the EU, it’s not going to affect the rest of Europe.” Yes it will. It will destroy all the debt based on Greek bonds. It will destroy all the banks- Deutsche Bank, great example. If Deutshce Bank goes, J.P. Morgan goes, Citbank goes, all the banks go. And then the derivative implosion happens. And that’s alway been kind of the home-built nuclear bomb in the financial system is the derivative market- the hundreds of trillions, quadrillions, in derivatives that are so dependent upon third-parties staying in business. Because they are the counter-party to Deutsche Bank, and Citibank, and J.P. Morgan. Once one large derivative holder goes, they all go. We almost saw it in 2008. I think we’re real close to it again. I think Trump is going to push that ticket…
HUNTER: Do you think that we’re close to this derivatives explosion, this implosion, right now? Do you think it’s this year?
WEIR: I do think it’s this year. I think it can happen at any moment. I think Trump has long said that we’re in some huge bubbles and they’ve got to pop. He doesn’t want them popping after he’s fixed half the things in America. So, I would assume he’s going to pop them very soon, in the first few months of his administration. And we’re into that now. There are certain people that I know he needs to get in place. Because the popping of this bubble- this is the big mother of all bubbles.
HUNTER: So he is rushing to get his people in place so he can execute his plan. You’re saying he has a grand plan. That things aren’t just going to happen willy-nilly. You’re saying he’s going to get his people in place and he’s going to force the collapse, the reorganization.
WEIR: Yes. But it’s not his grand plan. This is the plan of the “good guys” that I’ve been talking about…
HUNTER: So why do you think we’re close to an economic reset, an implosion, a derivatives problem, the whole system resetting, changing, whatever. Why do you think we are close?
WEIR: Well, I know that Donald Trump is in charge of the exchange stabilization fund. So it’s basically he has the keys to ending this market rigging game. And once you end the market rigging game, then you can’t support the stock market. And everything has to go to its true fair market value, with real trades, no more derivatives. So Trump can do it. The question is, “Does he want to?” And it’s not just Trump. It’s the people who are behind Trump. I call them the “good guys.”
HUNTER: The Pentagon.
WEIR: Well, there’s people at the Pentagon. Within the military. Patriots. Going back since the sixties a lot of these guys are looking for a little retribution on the “bad guys” taking out Kennedy. But all this goes back to- what does Trump want to do? Trump and his people. Do they want to fix things? Go down that road to starting to fix things with the bubbles still there, with the Fed still printing money. Or, does he really want to fix them. Which means you crash the system first, and then you rebuild. I think it’s the latter. I think he’s trying to get people in place, and then he will crash the system and rebuild.


“Bix Weir-Trump Will Crash System Then Rebuild”
YouTube Video

Weir, who has a presence on the Web at RoadtoRoota.com, recommends selling “anything that has a third-party between you and your hard asset” like stocks and bonds, and buying Bitcoin (“get it out of the system”), gold, and silver- particularly silver. He concluded:

If you’re looking to make money, silver and Bitcoin- you can’t go wrong.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’d heard of Bix Weir before, but never read/listened to anything by him before. Very interesting, to say the least.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Thursday, February 2nd, 2017 Banking, Bonds, Business, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Derivatives, Europe, Federal Reserve, Government, Military, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Recession, Stocks, Wall Street Comments Off on Bix Weir Predicts 2017 Derivatives Implosion, Trump To Crash System Then Rebuild

Quote For The Week

“Let me say this to anyone who is listening at Citi: I agree with you. Dodd-Frank isn’t perfect. It should have broken you into pieces.”

-U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), in a speech on the Senate floor Friday on banks’ influence on the political process and concerning language in the spending bill (now before the Senate) she claims “would let derivatives traders on Wall Street gamble with taxpayer money and get bailed out by the government when their risky bets threaten to blow up our financial system.”

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Sunday, December 14th, 2014 Banking, Derivatives, Government, Quote For The Week, Wall Street Comments Off on Quote For The Week

Marc Faber: ‘One Day, This Financial Bubble Will Have To Adjust On The Downside’

I can’t believe it’s been almost an entire month since I last updated Survival And Prosperity’s “Crash Prophets” page.

Actually, I can, it’s been that hectic.

At least the blog’s off-and-running again.

Now, don’t expect too much from “crash prophet” Jeremy Grantham any time soon, as he’s off playing hooky from GMO’s Quarterly Letter, but there will be plenty on the latest investment activities and recommendations from Dr. Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff.

Speaking of “Doctor Doom,” as the financial media like to call him (along with Nouriel Roubini and Peter Schiff), Faber was recently interviewed by Hong Kong-based media, research, and consulting group The Prospect Group about the global economy (hat tip Trade The Newsroom website). Like myself, the Swiss-born investment advisor and fund manager has been consistent in his warnings of a coming financial crash. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report warned viewers:

In general, if you look at the world, say compared to the 1950s, 1960s, and even 70s, it’s very clear that financial markets- official and less official- have grown disproportionately compared to the real economy. In other words, you have, say, a global GDP of- I don’t know what it is- $60 trillion or whatever it is. And you have financial markets that turn $60 trillion around in a week or less.

And I believe that one day, this financial bubble will have to adjust on the downside. Either it will adjust on the downside because we have an inflationary burst, or we have a collapse of the system.

We don’t know exactly how the end game will be played.


“Marc Faber on shadow banking, market psychology, & the global impact of American monetary policy”
YouTube Video

“We don’t know exactly how the end game will be played.”

I know one thing for sure.

The unwinding will be real painful.

Especially for those who never saw it coming, or did see it but didn’t do anything to prepare.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Monday, July 29th, 2013 Bubbles, Crash Prophets, Derivatives, GDP, Inflation, Preparedness Comments Off on Marc Faber: ‘One Day, This Financial Bubble Will Have To Adjust On The Downside’

Vanguard Founder’s Advice For Weathering ‘The Worst Time For Investors That He Has Ever Seen’

I predicted last summer that this would be my 10th bear market. But this one is different. The others were more marketlike, reflecting problems in the market, not problems in the society and the economy as this one does. As a result, we’re in for a much more troublesome era than after the other big bear markets.

-The Vanguard Group’s John “Jack” Bogle, in a July 20, 2008, New York Times web article

Back when I ran Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street,” I used to talk about Jack Bogle, the founder of The Vanguard Group and President of Vanguard’s Bogle Financial Markets Research Center, every once in a while. In case you’re not familiar with Vanguard, it’s one of the two largest mutual fund organizations in the world.

The reason I blogged about Bogle was that he would warn about the global financial crisis that would be full-blown by autumn of 2008 when most other financial types weren’t.

And these days, Vanguard’s founder is sounding the alarm again.

Bogle, now 83, appeared on the New York Times website again this past weekend. Jeff Sommer wrote:

“It’s urgent that people wake up,” he says. Why? This is the worst time for investors that he has ever seen — and after more than 60 years in the business, that’s saying a lot.

Start with the economy, the ultimate source of long-term stock market returns. “The economy has clouds hovering over it,” Mr. Bogle says. “And the financial system has been damaged. The risk of a black-swan event — of something unlikely but apocalyptic — is small, but it’s real.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

I happen to agree with Mr. Bogle here- if only because many previously-classified “black swan events” have now been “outed” as real, potential threats (a derivatives crisis comes to mind here) to the U.S. economy and larger financial system.

And I believe one of these more visible threats is likely to torpedo the economy/financial system than a remaining black-swan event.

The inventor of the first index mutual fund- the Vanguard 500 Index Fund- recommended in the Times piece that long-term investors continue to hold stocks, predicting equities will likely produce better returns than other alternatives.

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

Sommer, Jeff. “A Mutual Fund Master, Too Worried to Rest.” New York Times. 11 Aug. 2012. (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/12/business/john-bogle-vanguards-founder-is-too-worried-to-rest.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all). 16 Aug. 2012.

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Thursday, August 16th, 2012 Crash Prophets, Derivatives, Investing, Mutual Funds, Stocks Comments Off on Vanguard Founder’s Advice For Weathering ‘The Worst Time For Investors That He Has Ever Seen’

U.S. Housing Prices To Fall Another 20 Percent?

The rate of new home construction in the United States exceeded analysts’ expectations and rose in June by 14.6 percent to an annualized rate of 629,000 units, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday…

The June rate was the highest monthly housing starts figure since January.

-FOX News website, July 19

Sales of previously owned homes fell in June, defying expectations for even a slight pickup after a lousy spring selling season.

The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 0.8 percent month over month to an annual rate of 4.77 million units, the lowest since November, as cancellations of pending contracts surged. May’s sales were unrevised at a 4.81 million-unit rate…

After six months, sales are on pace to finish behind last year’s 4.91 million homes sold — the weakest sales in 13 years. Sales have fallen in four of the past five years.

-MSNBC website, July 20

Now that the “flurry” of spring home sales has subsided (ha!), I’ve continued my hunt for a permanent residence in southeastern Wisconsin (I still intend to keep a residence in the Chicagoland area as well due to family obligations). A couple of days ago, I noticed some significant price reductions among a number of homes for sale in the town I’ve been frequenting since 1984 and would like to buy property in. Seeing that residential real estate is on my mind these days, I decided a post about the outlook for U.S. housing is called for.

Recently, I’ve noticed a couple of headlines in the financial media that mentioned “crash prophet” Gary Shilling and a recent housing call he made. Back on April 15, I talked about Shilling, who is the founder and president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc., an economic consulting company he founded back in 1978. The publisher of the monthly newsletter INSIGHT is known for making numerous correct market calls. In fact, Shilling not only successfully predicted the 2008 financial crisis- but he identified a primary catalyst for it as well. Back on June 14, 2007, I wrote in one of my old blogs:

And what will trigger the meltdown? According to Farrell, Shilling still sees the subprime debacle as the catalyst.

Shilling wrote in The Christian Science Monitor on April 5 that a further fall in housing prices could drag the United States back into recession. These days, he fears this scenario could be playing out right before our eyes. The author of the recently-released The Age of Deleveraging appeared on Yahoo! Finance’s The Daily Ticker show on July 13 and responded to statements he made in the July issue of his newsletter. From the Ticker’s Peter Gorenstein that day:

“Economic growth here and abroad is slipping, making a 2012 recession a distinct possibility,” he writes in his July newsletter. And, “when you have slow growth it doesn’t take much of a shock to throw you in negative territory.”

Shilling says the shock to trigger the next recession is “another big leg-down in housing.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Here’s what Shilling had to say about residential real estate:

It’s probably going to be another big leg down in housing. The problem that is there’s just too many excess inventories there. We estimate that there are two to two-and-a-half million excess housing unit inventories over and above the normal working levels. And that’s a lot. We normally build about a million-and-a-half houses a year. Getting rid of those excess inventories, if you look at what’s happening in terms of household formation and new housing being built, it’ll probably take four or five years, and that’s plenty of time for this excess inventory to depress prices. Excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices. We’re looking for another 20 percent decline in house prices

If we had the 20 percent decline- which would bring us back to the long-term trend, inflation-adjusted, on house prices- if we have that, and I think that’s likely, and markets often overshoot on the downside, by the way, so it may be a conservative estimate. But we have that the percentage of mortgages underwater, by our calculation, would jump from 23 percent now to 40 percent. And at that point, strategic defaulting- in other words, people walking away from houses even if they can afford them if they’re underwater- that would become a favorite cocktail party conversation. “Have you strategically-defaulted?” In other words, it’s a critical mass. I think it would be devastating to consumer spending. Home equity, of those with mortgages, now 19 percent would drop to 8 percent. It would be very difficult for anybody who’s in the mortgage business, the derivatives, the banks holding mortgages…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Shilling warned Ticker viewers:

This is something I think is going to unfold in the next couple of years. But at what point it would be a shock enough to, in effect, cause a negative economic growth pattern, which is pretty much what you’re talking about with a recession, I think, I think next year looks pretty critical in this whole situation

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

“20 percent decline in house prices.” “Mortgages underwater, by our calculation, would jump from 23 percent now to 40 percent.” Not good.

Earlier this month, CNN Money surveyed a number of economists concerning their outlook for U.S. housing prices. Their predictions weren’t too rosy either. From their website on July 7:

Housing prices are likely to keep falling the rest of this year, and probably won’t show much improvement next year either, according to a survey of economists.

A CNNMoney exclusive survey of 27 economists showed the battered housing market is facing myriad problems and won’t turn around anytime soon.

Of the 22 who had specific predictions for the closely watched Case-Shiller home price index, the median forecast was for a 3.9 percent decline in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, and a 2.9 percent drop in prices over the course of the full year.

Only three economists expect prices to rise this year.

The outlook for 2011 is only modestly better — a 2 percent increase in home values, with six of the economists forecasting another drop in prices next year.

[Editor’s notes: Italics added for emphasis. Also, I believe there was a typo in that final sentence. It seems to make more sense were it to read “The outlook for 2012…”]

Stay tuned…

Sources:

Shilling, A. Gary. “A fragile recovery – and five shocks that threaten it.” The Christian Science Monitor. 5 Apr. 2011. (http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/0405/A-fragile-recovery-and-five-shocks-that-threaten-it). 15 Apr. 2011.

Gorenstein, Peter. “20% Drop in Housing to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling.” Yahoo! Finance’s Daily Ticker. 13 July 2011. (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/20-drop-housing-cause-recession-2012-says-gary-161445494.html). 20 July 2011.

“Economists: No rebound this year in housing prices.” CNN Money. 7 July 2011. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-economists-no-rebound-this-year-in-housing-prices-20110707,0,5383577.story). 20 July 2011.

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Wednesday, July 20th, 2011 Banking, Crash Prophets, Derivatives, Housing, Recession Comments Off on U.S. Housing Prices To Fall Another 20 Percent?

Today’s Must Read: Brett Arends And Why Another Financial Crisis Is Coming Soon

Despite all the financial turmoil of the past few years, it’s still somewhat rare to encounter a piece like what MarketWatch senior columnist/Wall Street Journal personal finance columnist Brett Arends wrote this morning on the MarketWatch website. He believes- as do I- another financial crisis is right around the corner.
From his article:

The last financial crisis isn’t over, but we might as well start getting ready for the next one.

Sorry to be gloomy, but there it is.

Why? Here are 10 reasons.

Arends went on to knock out some pretty good arguments as to why another economic crisis is coming soon. Besides the obvious ones such as the incentives for risky behavior still remain and the lack of punishments, he identified more worrisome developments since 2008, such as a derivatives time bomb now valued at $248 trillion (as opposed to $183 trillion before the crisis) and a U.S. credit bubble where the debt of nonfinancial corporations, household debt, government debt, and financial sector debt now adds up to at least $50 trillion.

But back to the issue of rarity. Arends is employed by the American publishing and financial information firm Dow Jones & Company- which owns both MarketWatch.com and the Wall Street Journal. And it’s been my experience that these two financial news outlets have a vested interest in a healthy U.S. economy and equity market (which American company doesn’t, I suppose). I just hope Arends doesn’t end up being assigned to writing fluff pieces- as I suspect is what happened to a local real estate columnist whose material I used to look forward to reading on a weekly basis.

You can read Arends’ insightful piece on the MarketWatch site here.

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Wednesday, July 6th, 2011 Bubbles, Credit, Derivatives, Mainstream Media Comments Off on Today’s Must Read: Brett Arends And Why Another Financial Crisis Is Coming Soon

Legendary Investor Mark Mobius Sees ‘Another Financial Crisis Around The Corner’

Back when I was following the investment activity of legendary investors in my now-retired blog Investorazzi.com, I would talk about emerging markets veteran Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, on a regular basis. Below is his bio as I had it displayed on that blog:

• Known as the “Pied Piper of Emerging Markets” as he has spent more than 40 years working in emerging markets all over the world
• Joined Templeton in 1987 as president of the Templeton Emerging Markets Fund. Directs the Templeton Global Emerging Markets Equity Group and manages the emerging markets portfolios.
• The recipient of numerous awards, in 2006 Asiamoney magazine identified him as one of the “Top 100 Most Powerful and Influential People.” The publication said, “Boasts one of the highest profiles of any investor in the region and is regarded by many in the financial industry as one of the most successful emerging markets investors over the last 20 years.
• Author of Investment Adventures In Emerging Markets
blog on the Franklin Templeton Investments website

Mobius currently directs the Templeton research team based in 15 global emerging markets offices and manages emerging markets portfolios. And earlier this week, Mobius caused a stir with his comments about what he thinks is in store for the global financial system down the road. Bloomberg’s Kana Nishizawa wrote on May 30:

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets group, said another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved.

“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,” Mobius said at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo today in response to a question about price swings. “Are the derivatives regulated? No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes.”

The total value of derivatives in the world exceeds total global gross domestic product by a factor of 10, said Mobius, who oversees more than $50 billion. With that volume of bets in different directions, volatility and equity market crises will occur, he said.

The global financial crisis three years ago was caused in part by the proliferation of derivative products tied to U.S. home loans that ceased performing, triggering hundreds of billions of dollars in writedowns and leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Source:

Nishizawa, Kana. “Mobius Says Another Financial Crisis ‘Around The Corner’.” Bloomberg.com. 30 May 2011. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/mobius-says-fresh-financial-crisis-around-corner-amid-volatile-derivatives.html?source=patrick.net#related_categories_tags_top). 2 June 2011.

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Friday, June 3rd, 2011 Derivatives, Emerging Markets, Investing, Stocks Comments Off on Legendary Investor Mark Mobius Sees ‘Another Financial Crisis Around The Corner’
Survival And Prosperity
Est. 2010, Chicagoland, USA
Christopher E. Hill, Editor

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