Europe
Pandemic Potential? H7N9 Bird Flu And Novel Coronavirus
Back on April 19, I asked if readers were paying attention to the spread of the H7N9 bird flu virus in China.
That followed a similar post from February 18 about the novel coronavirus (nCoV).
Here’s the latest regarding these deadly respiratory viruses. From the CBS News website Monday morning:
Two outbreaks of new, deadly respiratory infections in two different parts of the world have international health officials on edge, actively researching how to stay head of the new diseases.
In recent months, an outbreak of a new strain of bird flu called H7N9 has hit China while a new coronavirus that first appeared last year has been infecting an increasing number of people in the Middle East — and now Europe.
Last week, the coronavirus related to SARS spread to France, where one patient who probably caught the disease in Dubai infected his hospital roommate. Officials are now trying to track down everyone who went on a tour group holiday to Dubai with the first patient as well as all contacts of the second patient. Since it was first spotted last year, the new coronavirus has infected 34 people, killing 18 of them. Nearly all had some connection to the Middle East.
CBS ran a follow-up article about the novel coronavirus this afternoon. From that later piece:
Saudi Arabia has confirmed four new cases of a deadly new respiratory virus related to SARS that appears centered in the Arabian Peninsula but that has also been reported in Europe…
Other cases have appeared in France, Germany and Britain, possibly linked to travel in the Gulf region.
While the novel coronavirus has infected 34 and killed 18 since last September, the H7N9 bird flu strain in China has infected 131 and killed 32 since March.
So, do either of these viruses have pandemic potential? Possibly. Consider what the World Health Organization (WHO) said in Monday’s CBS piece:
WHO, which is closely monitoring the viruses, says both have the potential to cause a pandemic — a global epidemic — if they evolve into a form easily spread between people.
So far, that doesn’t seem to be the case. And luckily for us, there are no reports of anyone in United States getting infected and sick with either H7N9 or the novel coronavirus.
Just as well, as there are no specific treatments for illnesses caused by the novel coronavirus, according the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. However, the CDC does say this about treating illnesses caused by the H7N9 avian flu:
CDC received an H7N9 virus sample from China on April 11. Antiviral resistance testing on the first virus isolate at CDC has been completed and indicates that this virus would be sensitive (susceptible) to the two influenza antiviral drugs that are used to treat seasonal flu: the neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) and zanamivir (Relenza®)
For more information about these viruses, you can visit the CDC website here (novel coronavirus) and here (H7N9).
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
“Coronavirus and bird flu: Scientists tracking outbreaks of two new infections.” Associated Press. 13 May 2013. (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-204_162-57584184/coronavirus-and-bird-flu-scientists-tracking-outbreaks-of-two-new-infections/). 14 May 2013.
“New coronavirus infects four more in Saudi Arabia.” Associated Press. 14 May 2013. (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-204_162-57584412/new-coronavirus-infects-four-more-in-saudi-arabia/). 14 May 2013.
Pentagon: Iran Could Flight-Test ICBM Capable Of Striking U.S. By 2015
Here’s a bit of disturbing news concerning Iran’s advancing nuclear capability I caught yesterday from Defense Update, an online defense magazine published in Israel. From their website:
A new Pentagon assessment of Iran’s military power maintains that in two years time, Iran could flight-test an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the United States, given “sufficient foreign assistance”, is provided to Tehran. The new assessment reiterated a longstanding estimate of the U.S. intelligence community. Iran could test such a missile by 2015 with assistance from nations like North Korea, China or Russia.
Apparently, this comes from an unclassified portion of the Annual Report on Military Power of Iran, dated January 2013 and made available by the Pentagon on April 25, 2013.
You can read the rest of the article on the Defense Update site here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Signs Of The Time, Part 61
Late last night I took some “me” time to watch the remake of that 1984 cult classic Red Dawn. I blogged back on August 13, 2012:
“Cold Warriors” might remember the flick, which incidentally was the first film to be released with a PG-13 rating. From the IMDb website:
It is the dawn of World War III. In mid-western America, a group of teenagers bands together to defend their town, and their country, from invading Soviet forces.
I also added:
On November 21, 2012- the day before Thanksgiving- Red Dawn 2012 will be released in American movie theaters. According to the IMDb storyline:
A group of teenagers look to save their town from an invasion of North Korean soldiers.
North Korea?
Already, some are saying that the People’s Republic of China with its fast-growing military should have been cast as America’s fictitious adversary in the remake.
Or even the bad-a** Russians (Soviets) again.
But according to Wikipedia:
In June 2010, release of the film was delayed due to MGM’s financial difficulties. The delay came amid growing controversy in China after excerpts of the script were leaked on the website The Awl. The film drew sharp criticism from the Global Times, one of the leading Chinese state-run newspapers, with headlines such as “U.S. reshoots Cold War movie to demonize China” and “American movie plants hostile seeds against China.” One of the articles stated: “China can still feel U.S. distrust and fear, especially among its people. Americans’ suspicions about China are the best ground for the hawks to disseminate fear and doubt, which is the biggest concern with the movie, Red Dawn…
In March 2011, the Los Angeles Times reported that MGM is changing the villains in its Red Dawn remake from Chinese to North Korean in order to maintain access to China’s lucrative box office.
So, North Korea became the “new” bad guys.
But get a load what was printed up on the Netflix DVD sleeve label:
“When Chinese military forces invade…”
Too funny.
As for the 2013 remake- not bad. I was pleasantly surprised that the storyline wasn’t exactly the same as the original movie. However, the movie ended somewhat abruptly, I thought. Still, the film was better than I expected. I especially liked the North Korean invasion scene- my butt popped off the couch for that part. And Kalashnikov aficionados will be impressed by the prolific use of AK-variants in the movie.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Peter Schiff: U.S. Will Experience Cyprus ‘Bail-In’
Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist, talked about the proposed Cyprus “bail-in” despite Cyrpiot bank accounts having deposit insurance in his March 18 entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. Schiff, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis and U.S. housing bust, warned viewers:
You know, ultimately, the same thing is going to happen in the United States. We’ve got deposit insurance here in America. But eventually, we’re going to be faced with a similar problem. When interest rates rise, and big banks fail, the FDIC doesn’t have the money for a bailout. And, if the Fed is tightening, the Treasury doesn’t have the money to bail anybody out. So, we’re going to be in the same situation.
Schiff sees the Cyprus fiasco as being bullish for gold. He added yesterday:
I think, first of all, that this is a very positive development for gold. Now, the reason for that is that bank deposits are at risk. And if you think your money is at risk in a bank and you pull it out, what are you going to do with it? Well, putting it in gold is a great alternative. In fact, if you had euros deposited in a Cyprus bank, now you’ve lost about 10 percent, close to 10 percent of the value of those deposits, or 10 percent of your euros. But if you had gold in a safety deposit box in a Cyprus bank, you haven’t lost an ounce. So the people who have gold are whole, and those who have euros, or other currencies you had on deposit, but they’ve had a loss. So this highlights the safe haven aspect of gold.
“Insured Bank Deposits At Risk, America Burns While Obama Golfs”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers: ‘This Is Artificial Floating Of Assets And It’s Going To End Badly’
Lots of Americans these days probably think higher stock and home prices reflect the economic reality of the times.
A strong economic recovery in America?
Try fiat currency printing presses around the world working overtime.
The famous investor Jim Rogers sat down with CNN International’s Nina Dos Santos, host of World Business Today, last Friday. From their exchange:
ROGERS: It’s the first time in world history, recorded history, when all major central banks at the same time are printing a lot of money. The Japanese in December said “we will print unlimited amounts of money.” So the Americans said “we can do that!”
DOS SANTOS: You don’t agree with that strategy?
ROGERS: No, of course not. Debasing your currency sometimes works in the short-term. It has never worked in the long-term. And it doesn’t ever usually work in the medium-term. Debasing your currency- lots of politicians like to do it because it’s an easy way. But then the Americans said “we’ll print money.” And then the English said “well, we’ll print money.” And the Europeans of course. This is artificial floating of assets and it’s going to end badly.
“Rogers: Printing money is unsustainable”
CNN International Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Cyprus Bank Deposit Funds Seized For ‘Bail-In’
Something to think about before the financial crash comes to our shores. Peter Spiegel reported on the Financial Times (UK) website this morning:
International lenders agreed to a €10bn bailout of Cyprus early on Saturday morning after 10 hours of fraught negotiations, which included convincing Nicosia to seize €5.8bn from Cypriot bank deposits to help pay for the rescue, a first for any eurozone bailout.
The cash from Cypriot account holders will come in the form of a one-time 9.9 per cent levy on all deposits over €100,000 that will be slashed from their savings before banks reopen Tuesday, a day after a Cypriot holiday. An additional 6.75 per cent levy will be imposed on deposits below that level.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Notice it’s not just “the rich” who are getting hammered by this “bail-in.”
Rebecca Christie and Corina Ruhe added on the Bloomberg website today:
While the tax on deposits will hurt wealthy Russians with money in Cypriot banks, it will also sting ordinary citizens. Some ATMs in the country have run out of cash, Erotokritos Chlorakiotis, general manager of the Cooperative Central Bank, told state-run CYBC.
I can’t imagine a similar event taking place here going over too well on Main Street.
That’s not to say it can’t happen, though.
Exploring legal avenues for escaping a situation like Cypriot bank account holders now find themselves in might not be a bad idea. If not feasible, keeping one’s money out of the bank may be the smartest play in times of serious economic upheaval.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sources:
Spiegel, Peter. “Cypriot bank deposits tapped as part of €10bn eurozone bailout.” Financial Times. 16 Mar. 2013. (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33fb34b4-8df8-11e2-9d6b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2NiWqLmL5). 16 Mar. 2013.
Christie, Rebecca and Ruhe, Corina. “Cyprus Bank Deposits to Be Taxed in $13 Billion Bailout.” Bloomberg.com. 16 Mar. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-16/euro-area-takes-aim-at-depositors-in-cyprus-bailout.html). 16 Mar. 2013.
Jeremy Grantham: Thanks To Fed, ‘All Global Assets Are Once Again Becoming Overpriced’
It’s been quite some time since I blogged about Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO). I’ve noted before that the British investor has a special talent for correctly-calling the direction of the markets. For example:
• In 1982, said the U.S. stock market was ripe for a “major rally.” That year was the beginning of the longest bull run ever.
• In 1989, called the top of the Japanese bubble economy
• In 1991, predicted the resurgence of U.S. large cap stocks
• In 2000, correctly called the rallies in U.S. small cap and value stocks
• In January 2000, warned of an impending crash in technology stocks, which took place two months later
• Saw the 2008 global financial crisis coming. In April 2007, said we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.
Keep in mind that bit about “the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.”
Grantham pens a quarterly investment letter on the GMO website. And I recently read his latest installment (covering Q4 2012) which was released in February. Entitled “Investing in a Low-Growth World,” Grantham discussed what he called the Federal Reserve’s negative real rates regime, which is:
Designed to badger us into riskier investments in order to push up equity prices and grab a short-term wealth effect (that must be given back one day when least comfortable and least expected), has gone on for a long and, for me, boring time.
And the consequences? The investment manager whose individual clients have included Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney wrote later on in “Investment Implications:”
Courtesy of the above Fed policy, all global assets are once again becoming overpriced. This reminds me of the idea sometimes attributed to Einstein that a workable definition of madness is constantly repeating the same actions but expecting a different outcome! But, as always, asset prices are not uniformly overpriced: emerging markets and, we believe, Japan are only moderately overpriced. European stocks are also only a little expensive, but in today’s world are substantially more risky than normal. The great global franchise companies also seem only moderately overpriced. Forestry and farmland, which is not super-prime Midwestern, is also only moderately overpriced but comes with our nook and cranny sticker attached. But much of everything else is once again brutally overpriced. Notably, U.S. stocks (ex “quality”) now sell at a negative seven-year imputed return on our numbers and most global growth stocks are close to zero expected return. As for fixed income – fugetaboutit! Most of it has negative estimated returns on our data, and longer debt, as always, carries that risk that may be slight in any period, but is horrific if it occurs – accelerating inflation.
When one combines the apparent determination and influence of those who do the bullying with the career risk and short-termism of the bullied and the desire of the general public to believe unbelievable good news, these overpricings can go much further and the Fed can win another round or two. That’s the problem. A clue to timing would be when we begin to hear more passionate new era arguments: profit margins will always be higher; growth will snap back to 3% for the developed world; and new ones I can’t think of … maybe “when the discount rate is this low the Dow should sell at, perhaps, 36,000.” In the meantime, prudent managers should be increasingly careful. Same ole, same ole.
You can read the rest of Grantham’s 4Q 2012 letter on the GMO website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff: ‘Gold Bears Are Making Much Ado About Nothing’
There’s been quite a bit of talk these past couple of years about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy due to an economic recovery finally arriving that I’m going to have to agree with “crash prophet” and Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on this.
The Fed is bluffing.
Unless Fed officials are now starting to worry that growing their balance sheet is not in their best interest anymore.
Schiff, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis, wrote in the March issue of his Gold Letter that was published Friday:
Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: “We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off.” What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed’s unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.
Growing rumors last month of a potential “tightening” of monetary policy – seemingly confirmed by the Fed minutes released on Feb. 20th – have spooked the precious metals markets, leading to a 5.8% correction in gold and 10.2% in silver.
However, these fears are preposterous on two counts…
You can read the entire article (“The Fed’s Tightening Pipe Dream”) on the Euro Pacific Precious Metals website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Greece Suffers ‘Serious’ Medicine Shortage
If you require prescription drugs for day-to-day living, have you thought about what you’d do if they were in short supply or even no longer available?
I suggest you might want to start thinking about it, because the availability of medicine in a U.S. financial crash might mirror what’s going on in Greece these days.
Helena Smith and Elizabeth Sukkkar reported on The Guardian (UK) website Wednesday:
Greece is facing a serious shortage of medicines amid claims that pharmaceutical multinationals have halted shipments to the country because of the economic crisis and concerns that the drugs will be exported by middlemen because prices are higher in other European countries.
Hundreds of drugs are in short supply and the situation is getting worse, according to the Greek drug regulator. The government has drawn up a list of more than 50 pharmaceutical companies it accuses of halting or planning to halt supplies because of low prices in the country.
More than 200 medicinal products are affected, including treatments for arthritis, hepatitis C and hypertension, cholesterol-lowering agents, antipsychotics, antibiotics, anaesthetics and immunomodulators used to treat bowel disease.
Those poor Greeks. They may want to look into alternative medicine and picking up a copy of preppers Dr. Bones and Nurse Amy’s The Doom and Bloom Survival Medicine Handbook.
You can read the entire article on The Guardian website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
WHO: SARS-Like Novel Coronavirus ‘Offers Further Indications Of Person-To-Person Transmission’
“Health officials in the UK believe they have the strongest evidence yet that a new respiratory illness similar to the deadly Sars virus can spread from person to person.
Cases of the infection may come from contact with animals. However, if the virus can spread between people it poses a much more serious threat…”
-BBC News website, February 13, 2013
Novel coronavirus (NCoV). A SARS-like virus I’ve been hearing more of recently. And of particular concern to the World Health Organization (WHO). From a February 16 posting on the “Disease Outbreak News” section of their website:
The United Kingdom (UK) has informed WHO of another confirmed case of infection with the novel coronavirus (NCoV). This is the third case confirmed in the country this month and is in the same family cluster as the two recently confirmed cases.
The latest confirmed case does not have recent travel history outside the UK. The case is recovering from mild respiratory illness and is currently well.
The confirmation with NCoV in this case with no recent travel history indicates that infection was acquired in the UK. Although this new case offers further indications of person-to-person transmission, no sustained person-to-person transmission has been identified…
As of 16 February 2013, WHO has been informed of a total of 12 confirmed cases of human infection with NCoV, including five deaths…
WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event nor does it recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied.
WHO continues to closely monitor the situation.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
12 confirmed cases of this new coronavirus. 5 deaths.
The vibe I’m getting from public health circles is that human-to-human transmission of NCoV is pretty difficult, so there’s not much worry of a pandemic at this point in time.
Still, like the WHO suggested in their bulletin, it’s something worth keeping an eye on. People infected with the novel coronavirus have developed acute respiratory illness with symptoms of shortness of breath, cough, and pneumonia. There are no specific treatments for the illnesses caused by the virus.
You can learn more about the novel coronavirus at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website here. And you can read that entire WHO infection update on their site here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Gallagher, James. “Coronavirus: Signs the new Sars-like virus can spread between people.” BBC News. 13 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21442519). 18 Feb. 2013.
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