Europe

Robert Shiller: ‘I Think Now Could Be A Good Time To Invest In Oil’

Yale economics professor Robert Shiller spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier. And these days, the “crash prophet’s” observations have led him to think crude oil may be a good investment. According to an Agence France-Presse article from March 23:

Asked how he would invest his money, Shiller replied: “It’s difficult. But I think now could be a good time to invest in oil or in a rise in oil prices,” he said.

“Prices are very low and there are a lot of reasons to assume that they won’t stay low. That’s what I’ve bet on,” Shiller said…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Dr. Shiller repeated his belief that European stocks were more reasonably priced than U.S. equities. From the AFP piece:

Shiller said European stocks, including German stocks, were still a bargain, compared with US stocks.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I blogged back on February 19:

The Nobel Prize-winning economist was on CNBC’s Squawk Box TV show Wednesday and talked equities (among other things) with Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin, and Brian Sullivan. From their exchange:

SHILLER: The things that is really striking- and maybe not today- is the low-level, long-term interest rates. It is just stunning how low they have gotten. Recently, the 30-year TIPS real rate was at half-a-percent. That’s incredible for 30 years. And that is pushing the stock market up. But it’s not the kind of euphoria that we saw notably in 2000.
SORKIN: What percentage do you have in equities?
SHILLER: It’s about half.
SORKIN: Half?
SHILLER: Yeah.
SORKIN: Have you changed it recently? Will you change it?
SHILLER: Yeah. I’m thinking of getting out of the United States somewhat.
SORKIN: You are?
SHILLER: Yeah. I think Europe is so much cheaper.
SORKIN: And you’d buy big multinationals based in Europe? You’d buy smaller companies in Europe? What would you do?
SHILLER: Well, what I have done is I’ve invested in Italy indexes. Spain index.
SORKIN: Are you hedging currency?
SHILLER: No, I’m not.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

“ROBERT SHILLER: It’s not euphoria driving this stock market boom- it’s fear.” Agence France-Presse. 23 Mar. 2015. (http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-fear-behind-current-stock-market-highs-nobel-laureate-2015-3?utm_source=gatehouse&utm_medium=referral). 28 Mar. 2015.

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Lord Rothschild Warns ‘Geopolitical Situation Perhaps As Dangerous As Any We Have Faced Since World War II’

Jacob Rothschild, or 4th Baron Rothschild Bt, OM, GBE, FBA, as he’s known across “the pond,” has issued a warning to investors in RIT Capital Partners, an investment trust chaired by the 78-year-old banker. Lord Rothschild wrote in the £2.3 billion trust’s 2014 annual report (Report & Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2014) under “Chairman’s Statement”:

Our policy has been clearly expressed over the years. Simply put, it is to deliver long-term capital growth while preserving shareholders’ capital; the realization of this policy comes at a time of heightened risk, complexity and uncertainty. The economic and geopolitical environment therefore becomes increasingly difficult to predict.

The world economy grew at a disappointing and uneven rate in 2014 after six years of monetary stimulus and extraordinarily low interest rates. Stock market valuations however, are near an all-time high with equities benefiting from quantitative easing. Not surprisingly, the value of paper money has been debased as countries have sought to compete and generate growth by lowering the value of their currencies – the Euro and the Yen depreciated by over 12% against the US Dollar during the course of the year and Sterling by 5.9%. The unintended consequences of monetary experiments on such a scale are impossible to predict.

In addition to this difficult economic background, we are confronted by a geopolitical situation perhaps as dangerous as any we have faced since World War II: chaos and extremism in the Middle East, Russian aggression and expansion, and a weakened Europe threatened by horrendous unemployment, in no small measure caused by a failure to tackle structural reforms in many of the countries which form part of the European Union.

However, in a world of zero or even negative bond yields, equities may well remain the destination of choice for investors. Furthermore, the majority of companies are reporting profits exceeding forecasts together with steady earnings growth. In Europe, the combination of a more competitive Euro, an aggressive programme of quantitative easing and the yields available on equities, may well lead to even higher valuations…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In 2012, it was reported the elder member of the Rothschild banking family took a $200 million position against the euro.

You can read the entire report on RIT Capital Partners website here (.pdf format).

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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U.S. Troops Being Deployed To Ukraine By End Of Week

On Monday, a U.S. Army brigade commander confirmed in a think-tank discussion that American troops were being deployed to the Ukraine later this week. While attending a Center for Strategic & International Studies event in Washington, D.C., yesterday, Colonel Michael L. Foster, Commander of the 173rd Airborne Brigade, told attendees:

As we have worked in Operation Atlantic Resolve, the U.S. Army has brought regionally-aligned forces forward to Europe to participate in that and to take part in it. So initially, 1st Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division came over last fall. They relieved us and took up responsibility for Atlantic Resolve. They have since been replaced by the other brigade combat team that’s in Europe that has the mission right now. And now that we are in the month of March we are going to change the mission again. 1st Brigade of 3rd Infantry Division will be picking up some of the responsibility for Atlantic Resolve. We’ll be putting elements of the brigade back forward toward that mission. And then additionally as we continue to look forward, we- we meaning U.S. Army Europe and the European Command- we are expanding Operation Atlantic Resolve further to the south. And so Poland and the Baltic States- they’re what we’re now referring to as Operation Atlantic Resolve North. And here later this month we’ll be sending forces to Romania, Bulgaria, and what we’re going to be calling Operation Atlantic Resolve South. And that has the potential this summer to expand to include potentially Hungary, potentially Georgia, at some point in time the Czech Republic. And so by the end of the summer you could very well see an operation that stretches from the Baltics all the way down to the Black Sea. So geographically, you connect countries. You will see a line of deployed U.S. troops. And then very specifically for the brigade, here before this week is up, we will be deploying a battalion-minus from the brigade I’m a part of to the Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces for the fight that’s taking place in the eastern portion of their country. So, very unique- a separate event from Atlantic Resolve that kind of certainly tied into deterring Russian aggression.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Colonel Foster added later:

We are training national guard companies with our companies. So we have got them paired up. A U.S. company with a Ukrainian company is the primary avenue for conducting that training. Initially, the plan is to go for 6 months. So through the October timeframe. There have been discussions about how to expand both the duration of that event and the scope. You know, there are other things the U.S. can assist with from a military perspective… So right now what we have got laid out is 6 United States companies that will be training 6 Ukrainian companies throughout the summer, and we have got 3 battalion headquarters elements aligned with 3 Ukrainian battalion headquarters elements to work at that level. But really, nothing above battalion staff level at all.


“Relooking Europe: The Role of Land Forces”
(Eastern Europe/Ukraine deployment discussion really begins @ 13:27)
YouTube Video

Last week, Britain announced it was sending 75 military advisers to train Ukrainian army personnel.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Tuesday, March 3rd, 2015 Europe, Foreign Policy, Government, Military, War No Comments

Chicago-Area Shopping Malls Targeted By Terrorists?

Muslim extremists are calling for terror attacks directed against Western malls. From the website of Chicago CBS affiliate Channel 2 Saturday night:

A terror group with ties to al-Qaeda released an online video Saturday appearing to call for attacks on Western malls, including at least one U.S. shopping center.

There is no credible, serious threat to a location in the Chicago region, but CBS 2’s Chelsea Irving reports one area police agency is taking the message seriously.

In the 75-minute video released Saturday, Islamic extremist group al-Shabaab calls for lone followers to attack Western targets.

The speaker specifically mentions the Mall of America in Minnesota. In the last five minutes of the video, the logo of Westfield shopping centers appears. The addresses in the video are for Westfield malls in England, but the speaker calls for attacks on any Westfield mall.

In the U.S., Westfield has 38 malls in eight states. Three are in the Chicago region: in Aurora, Skokie and Vernon Hills…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Specifically, those Chicago-area shopping malls are Westfield Fox Valley (Aurora), Westfield Old Orchard (Skokie), and Westfield Hawthorn (Vernon Hills).

Keep in mind authorities say “there is no credible, serious threat to a location in the Chicago region.” Personally, I’d just as soon visit these three malls as any other these days, maintaining optimal situational awareness during those “shopping sprees.”

You can read the entire CBS 2 piece on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Robert Kiyosaki: 2002 Prediction Of Huge Stock Market Crash Next Year ‘Holding Course’

“‘Rich Dad’s Prophecy’- [Robert Kiyosaki’s] most recent book- predicts that the market will crash around 2016 when the oldest Baby Boomers start cashing out their 401(k) plans. Individuals whose savings are locked into 401(k) plans will suffer because these retirement plans, aren’t flexible and don’t do well in a bear market…”

-CNN.com, October 30, 2002

How many readers out there know who Robert Kiyosaki is? The American entrepreneur, educator, and investor was quite popular back in the early 2000s. I first encountered him while watching public television around that time, sharing financial and investment strategies taught to him by his rich “Dad” and found in his 2000 New York Times best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad. Kiyosaki went on to write a number of books, including Rich Dad’s Prophecy in 2002.

Last Tuesday, Robert Kiyosaki appeared on the Alex Jones Show. Kiyosaki talked about his new book, Second Chance, and other subjects, including a certain prediction made about the U.S. stock market next year. From their exchange:

JONES: The world is just crazy at this point. Give us your prognosis for the planet. There’s obviously opportunities for those of us that are studying it. I mean, I going to do better probably than ever as things get worse. But I’m not happy about that, because I know it’s hurting the average person.
KIYOSAKI: Amen. Alex, I would say exactly the same thing. It doesn’t make me happy that I’m getting richer and richer, and I see my friends getting poorer and poorer. I’m very concerned right now about my generation- the Baby Boom generation, the biggest generation in history. And they bought that program of put all your money in a 401(k) and invest for the long term. Now, I wrote a book called Rich Dad’s Prophecy back in 2002. That was 13 years ago. And I said the biggest stock market crash in the history of the world was coming in 2016. I was kind of guessing. But unfortunately, I didn’t write it to be right. I wrote it out of concern. If I’m correct that in 2002 what I said the biggest market crash was coming in 2016, that means millions and millions of Baby Boomers, their kids, their grandkids, will feel the effect of that when their retirement savings are wiped out. I hope I’m wrong. But so far, my numbers look accurate and it’s holding course right now. So I don’t write because I want to be rich or poke fun or want to be righteous. I am rather concerned about my fellow citizens.

“But so far, my numbers look accurate and it’s holding course right now.”

Disturbing. Kiyosaki added later on in the interview:

I’m just concerned about this possible- I hope it doesn’t happen- but if my “rich Dad” was correct, again, published in 2002 Rich Dad’s Prophecy predicted the biggest crash in the history of the world was coming in 2016. And that’s why I wrote Rich Dad Poor Dad, that’s why I speak, that’s why I write, that’s why I take on the media. But I’m very concerned for my [fellow] citizens. Look, Alex, what happens? Let’s say I’m right- hopefully I’m not. And millions of Baby Boomers lose their pensions, their homes, their jobs- they lose everything. What is the ripple effect throughout the world going to mean to that? We’ve never been here before. Never before has the U.S. dollar, one currency, been the reserve currency of the world- and we’re printing it. The Europeans are printing, Japanese are printing. And you’ve got to look at this and go, “This is not good.” So that’s my concern right now.


“Great Economic Collapse & Currency Meltdown Is Coming
Says Financier Robert Kiyosaki”
YouTube Video

So how is Robert Kiyosaki going to fend off the crisis he still sees coming? While taking phone calls from listeners, Kiyosaki revealed:

I like silver personally. I love gold. I have a lot of gold and silver.

Further insight was provided right before the holidays, when Eve Fisher of The Sydney Morning Herald reported:

“The world is in very serious trouble and the next 20 years will not be like the past two decades,” says Kiyosaki, who predicted the downfall of Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008 and the ensuing GFC.

“I foresee a global currency crash, like the one that ruined Germany in the 1920s, which will wipe out the poor and the middle class – as the rich get richer.

“People will see that money and shares are not real wealth, just paper, and the way to survive is by acquiring assets – like property, resources, gold and other precious metals.”

Farmers will benefit as land and food become highly valued commodities, he says…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

Fisher, Eve. “Robert Kiyosaki says to prepare for the worst.” The Sydney Morning Herald. 10 Nov. 2014. (http://www.smh.com.au/business/robert-kiyosaki-says-to-prepare-for-the-worst-20141111-11jyhr.html). 21 Feb. 2015.

Robert Kiyosaki’s latest book…

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Robert Shiller: ‘I’m Thinking Of Getting Out Of The United States Somewhat’

The second topic from earlier this week I’ll be revisiting tonight is Robert Shiller. The Nobel Prize-winning economist was on CNBC’s Squawk Box TV show Wednesday and talked equities (among other things) with Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin, and Brian Sullivan. From their exchange:

SHILLER: The things that is really striking- and maybe not today- is the low-level, long-term interest rates. It is just stunning how low they have gotten. Recently, the 30-year TIPS real rate was at half-a-percent. That’s incredible for 30 years. And that is pushing the stock market up. But it’s not the kind of euphoria that we saw notably in 2000.
SORKIN: What percentage do you have in equities?
SHILLER: It’s about half.
SORKIN: Half?
SHILLER: Yeah.
SORKIN: Have you changed it recently? Will you change it?
SHILLER: Yeah. I’m thinking of getting out of the United States somewhat.
SORKIN: You are?
SHILLER: Yeah. I think Europe is so much cheaper.
SORKIN: And you’d buy big multinationals based in Europe? You’d buy smaller companies in Europe? What would you do?
SHILLER: Well, what I have done is I’ve invested in Italy indexes. Spain index.
SORKIN: Are you hedging currency?
SHILLER: No, I’m not.


“Shiller: Europe so much cheaper than US”
CNBC Video

The Yale professor talked about exiting his U.S. stock positions not too long ago. I blogged on December 10, 2014:

Dr. Shiller appeared on CNBC Tuesday morning and told viewers the following when asked what he’s doing with his own money:

I worry about valuation in the stock market. And I’ve been wondering if I should pull out. But I have not. And in fact I’m still thinking that even at the CAPE ratio of 27, the expected return is still higher than you expect to get on either housing, on real estate, or fixed income. So it still seems like- I feel a little trepidation because I know my own indicator is looking kind of scary. I wouldn’t over go into the market, but I wouldn’t be completely out either.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Dr. Shiller’s latest book (revision, actually)…

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Robert Shiller: ‘Stocks In Europe Are MUCH Cheaper Than In The United States’

The last time I blogged about Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, he was saying that the bond market “doesn’t clearly fit my definition of a bubble.” Dr. Shiller knows a thing or two about bubbles, considering he spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier.

Last Thursday, Shiller was interviewed by Bertha Coombs on CNBC’s Futures Now TV show where he shared his thoughts about bonds again (“it’s definitely high”) and some advice for investors. From their exchange:

SHILLER: One of them is, don’t use your usual assumptions about returns going forward. So that means you might want to save more. A lot of people are not saving enough. And incidentally, people are living longer now and health care is improving- you might end up retired for 30 years. People are not really preparing for that. The other thing is, diversify. And that helps reduce risk. And you can diversify outside the United States. Stocks in Europe are much cheaper than in the United States. So some people never invest in Europe- I think that’s a mistake.
COOMBS: So you’d rather go to Europe rather than emerging markets…
SHILLER: Or emerging markets, yeah…


“Robert Shiller’s unconventional investment advice”
CNBC Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Peter Schiff Says Stock, Housing Markets Down If QE 4 Not Launched In 2015

“The U.S. economy entered 2015 on the most robust streak of consumer spending in years, yet when the first growth figures for 2014 came out Friday they underscored the lack of vigor in the current expansion.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the U.S., notched an annual growth rate of 2.4% for 2014, the government said Friday, just a touch better than the sluggish average of the nearly six-year-old recovery—and far from the 4% growth of the late 1990s. Fourth-quarter GDP was 2.6%, roughly half the summer’s blowout 5% pace, which was aided in part by a spree of military purchases that wasn’t repeated.

The report offered both hope and red flags for the world’s largest economy…”

-The Wall Street Journal website, January 30, 2015

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff discussed the latest U.S. GDP numbers in his January 30, 2015, entry on The Schiff Report vlog on YouTube.com. Schiff told viewers:

Ultimately, what I think has to happen- and it hasn’t happened yet- is that people are going to have to connect these dots, and get their arms around the fact that the U.S. economy is not nearly as prosperous. That this recovery is not legitimate, and that it cannot sustain itself. I mean, how can anybody believe- if you believed that the stimulus worked, if you believe that quantitative easing and zero-percent interest rates stimulated the economy, then how can you take away the stimulus and have the economy perform better without the stimulus than it did with the stimulus? You would have to acknowledge that if you took away the stimulus, you’re going to get less growth. And that’s what’s going to happen. Yet everybody expects more growth…

The only question in my mind is- how long is the Federal Reserve going to maintain the pretense of economic growth and pretend that it stands ready to raise interest rates at some point, when it really is planning on launching QE 4 that will be larger than what they’re doing in Europe. If they don’t launch QE 4 this year, I think the stock market will be down. And not only will the stock market be down, the real estate market will be down. And remember, both the stock market and the housing market are the twin pillars upon which this phony recovery was built. And for those people who think that we’re going to have more economic growth in 2015- 3 percent economic growth which I think is still the consensus in 2015- how is that going to happen? Without any quantitative easing. With rate hikes later in the year. With a falling stock market. With a falling real estate market. You’re going to have the wealth effect working in reverse. In fact, they announced today that the homeownership rate just hit a brand-new 20-year low. And the Fed hasn’t even started to raise rates yet. How is this phony bubble economy going to grow faster under those conditions, than it did last year under the ideal monetary conditions? It can’t. And that is the dichotomy, the inconsistency, that nobody seems to be able to grasp.


“GDP Growth Slows Sharply in 4th Quarter: 2015 to be Worse”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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GoldSilver.com’s Mike Maloney: Potential Fallout From Unpegging Swiss Franc From Euro

Regular Survival And Prosperity readers may recall that GoldSilver.com used to be an affiliate marketing partner of the blog. Great company (specializes in the instruction of precious metals investing and providing world-class gold and silver dealer services and products), but they pulled the plug on their affiliate marketing program not too long ago. Anyway, I still receive e-mails from the Santa Monica, California-based operation, and yesterday I watched a video by Mike Maloney, the precious metals expert, advisor, and author who heads up the firm. Maloney has been an advisor to Robert Kiyosaki of Rich Dad Poor Dad-fame, and even wrote a book about investing in gold and silver under the Rich Dad’s Advisors series.

Anyway, in that GoldSilver.com video Mike Maloney discussed the potential ramifications of the Swiss franc being unpegged from the euro last week- among other things. Maloney warned viewers:

Back when we were filming Hidden Secrets of Money, when we started filming it, we did the opening sequence. And in there I said, “We’re entering a period of financial crisis that is the greatest the world has ever seen.” And that is happening today. These shockwaves that could cause the Russian- this could cause another Russian Revolution to happen. We have no idea what’s going to happen. But the shockwave of all these things- the deflationary pressure, the Russian crisis that’s going on, commodities falling, and then the Swiss unpegging from the euro- all happening at once. And by the way, there’s bank runs happening right now in Greece, and four of the largest banks in Greece have asked for assistance from the European Central Bank. So, this is all happening at once. What I think is going to happen is this will smooth out for a short period of time, but then it’s going to get worse again. So these shockwaves, this all undermines the trust in central banks and the trust in fiat currencies…

The central banks are now backed into a corner, and everything that I’ve been predicting is starting to unfold here. It’s unfolding very slowly, and on a scale that’s huge. But it’s not going to be slow forever. There’s going to come a day when slow turns into very fast. And a lot of this stuff happens overnight. For instance, the currency unpeg. Nobody knew it was coming- it happened immediately. And so, these things always end up eventually being good for precious metals. I don’t look forward to the economic chaos that we’re about to go through. But, we’ll get through it, and it will be a different world when we come through the other end. Hopefully, what ends up happening, is free enterprise, free markets, capitalism, and sound money win. That would be the best outcome.


“Global Shockwaves To Come From Swiss Currency Bombshell – Mike Maloney.”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: China, Other U.S. Creditors Could Emulate Switzerland, Implode America When Fed Attempts QE4

“One of the world’s safest investments- the Swiss franc- has swung wildly this week after the central bank in Switzerland announced it would scrap its policy of limiting the rise of the currency.

It may seem like an arcane move, but it’s not. The Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision on Thursday caused the franc to surge against the euro and dollar, sending shockwaves through the global financial system.

Holders of Swiss francs profited handsomely, but many investors and brokerage firms, were pounded with losses…”

-Associated Press, January 16, 2015

Anyone been paying attention to what happened with the Swiss franc this past week? I have a feeling most American aren’t- which is a mistake, because the actions of the Swiss central bank may be repeated by China and other countries in the near future with respect to our country. Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff talked about the possible implications in his January 16, 2014, entry in The Schiff Report vlog on YouTube.com. Schiff warned viewers:

When the Fed comes up with QE4, China is going to be faced with a similar decision as Switzerland. Are they going to back up their trucks and load them up with dollars? Because if we do QE4, we’re going to expect the Chinese to bear the burden if they want to keep their currency from going up. And I think Switzerland is going to show them the way. They’ll see the light. This is not going to be detrimental to the Swiss economy. On the contrary, this is going to be a positive for Switzerland, and it could be a positive for China if they abandon their peg as well. But, that’s going to be even worse for America than what Switzerland did to Europe… for America, we’ve been relying on this Chinese crutch for so long, you take it away, and there’s a real implosion here. We’re going to suffer much more if the Chinese pull our plug. I mean, we’re really going to go down the drain. This might not necessarily be the nail in the coffin for the Europeans. ..

People should look at this lesson of Switzerland and heed these warnings. And don’t just look in the rearview mirror at what happened in Switzerland. But look forward, look through the windshield at what’s coming. Look at the relationship between the Swiss franc and the euro and what are the implications between the dollar and other pegged currencies like the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar. All of these relationships are eventually going to crack. All of the countries that are subsidizing the United States, that are absorbing our trade deficits, that are piling up our Treasuries- they’re all going to have the same problem that Switzerland had. They made a mistake and corrected it in three short years. These others countries have been making a bigger mistake for a longer period of time, but eventually, they are going to be forced to bit the bullet and cut and run. And I think it’s going to be the same decision that motivated the Swiss is going to be the prospect of QE4, because everybody is expecting a tighter Fed, everybody believes that we have a legitimate recovery, and nobody is expecting this recovery to implode, and the Fed to come back with QE4- but that is exactly what’s going to happen. Just the way they were caught by surprise by what happened with the Swiss franc, they’re going to be even more surprised by what’s going to happen with the U.S. economy, what’s going to happen with the dollar…

Don’t wait for that to happen. Don’t be surprised. Don’t be bankrupted like the forex traders, or the forex companies that were extending the credit to the leveraged speculators. Get your economic house in order. Understand that economic fundamentals always come through in the end. Sometimes it takes longer to happen, and sometimes people become emboldened, because if something hasn’t happened, they think it’s never going to happen. And exactly when you get complacent, when you think it’s always going to be that way- and believe me, the people that were levered up short the Swiss franc, in their wildest imaginations, they could not see this day coming. Even though it should have been obvious that this day would come. Nobody knows when. And that’s why I always tell my clients, we’ve got to be prepared in advance. It’s too late, if you’re a day late. You’ve got to be early. If you woke up yesterday morning, and you were short the Swiss franc, it was too late to cover. The market just gapped, it was a huge move, there was nothing you could do. You had to be prepared in advance. You couldn’t time it- there was no way to know exactly when it was going to happen- because nobody could figure that out. You have to be early. You can’t be late. And so when it comes to structuring your portfolio and preparing for a dollar crisis, you’re not going to see it coming. You’re not going to do it at the last minute. You’ve got to be prepared in advance. And, you know, there’s plenty of warning signs that that day of reckoning is coming.


“Will China Pull a ‘Switzerland’ on the U.S. Dollar?”
YouTube Video

Schiff, who also heads up SchiffGold, shared his view on how gold might perform in the coming year. He told viewers:

I think gold’s going to have a big first half- even bigger than the first half of 2014- but in the second half, that’s when it could really take off.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Marc Faber: ‘The President, For Whatever Reason, Might Not Finish His Term’

This year’s Barron’s Roundtable convened on January 12, 2015, at the Harvard Club of New York. And one member of the Roundtable, Swiss-born investment advisor and fund manager Marc Faber, brought up some interesting scenarios for the coming year. Dr. Faber told Roundtable participants:

Many surprises could occur in the next 12 months. The president, for whatever reason, might not finish his term. China’s president, Xi Jinping, doesn’t speak as much as Obama, but when he speaks, he makes sense. He is a powerful person. In the past 45 years, China has pursued a policy of nonintervention in other countries’ domestic affairs. But that might change because of its oil interests in the Sudan. China is the largest supplier of troops to the U.N. peacekeeping forces. Its troops are conveniently placed next to Sudan’s oil facilities. China also has a large interest in the Iraqi oilfields. If ISIS moves toward southern Iraq, which it currently can’t do, China will protect its interests. The Chinese are becoming more assertive in their geopolitical ambitions. They must ensure a supply of natural resources, such as oil, copper, and iron ore. In their view, the Americans have no interests in Southeast Asia and eventually will have to move out. It is unclear how this will be achieved, or when, but it probably won’t happen peacefully

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Thailand-based Faber, like fellow “crash prophets” Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff, recognizes that the West’s economic power is steadily being transferred to the East. He added in New York City:

Even if Asia doesn’t grow much this year, economic power is shifting to Asia. The Indian economy could grow by 5%-6% in 2015, although the Indians would say I am too pessimistic. Nonetheless, a 5% growth rate is enormous, compared to zero in Europe.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


Heineken Commercial “The Date” feat. Mohammed Rafi, Jaan Pehechaan Ho (1965)
YouTube Video

You can read the entire Roundtable discussion on the Barron’s website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Gabe Suarez Pens Follow-Up To ‘Today, Every Man Is A Counter Terrorist’

Last Friday, I blogged about a Facebook post by Gabe Suarez, head of The Suarez Group and a decorated veteran of Southern California law enforcement, in which he talked about the recent terrorist events in Paris, France. Suarez called upon readers to take up arms and become counter-terrorists. On January 12, a follow-up was published on The Suarez Group’s Facebook page. Suarez made some observations about terrorist events in the past year and wrote:

At every terror event, whether motivated by insane religions, or simply a lack of fastidious medication, there have been plenty of everyday “people”. And I suspect there have been a few there whose initial reaction was not to cower and to shrink from the face of evil. I suspect their initial reaction was anger. Yet unarmed by their observance of social norms, they were without the effective means to act on their natural fighter’s inclinations. And they were forced by decree, into victimhood.

But dangerous times (such as those we live in today, exemplified most recently by France), call for dangerous measures. Normally those measures should be taken by those who govern, but, well…let’s not waste our time with that dead end.

I call for every man and woman that has been outraged by the events at Charlie Hebdo in Paris to take steps to be their own rescuer…their own counter terrorist. The skill of these self-motivated killers is not as high as the uninformed commentators on CNN would have us think. Are they practiced? Certainly, but they are not invulnerable. Witness how many photographs have been taken, not only of the Paris Terrorists, but of all terrorists and active shooters. A photograph is the same as a bullet…and those shots would not have been difficult to make.

I call for every capable man and woman in the west to arm themselves and carry weapons with them every single place they go where a Lone Wolf-Home Grown – Islamic Terrorist may strike. If you simply cannot obtain a firearm…at least get a knife. Sure it may be against regulations, but do you think the dead in Paris might have traded getting into trouble over getting killed for drawing a cartoon?

I challenge every man and woman who rails at the thought of hiding under a desk while a mad man roams freely, killing with an already illegal rifle, to train themselves to a level of skill suitable for killing that terrorist…for killing him with a knife from behind, or for shooting him right in his open mouth as he spews his first announcement of who he is and why he is there.

I challenge every citizen of every western nation who said, “Enough!”, or “I Am Charly”, to get off the couch and train. To become physically fit in strength and agility. To develop marksmanship skills. To develop the will and the aggression necessary to affect change in the opening moments of a planned mass slaughter. To develop the mind set and attitude to kill the terrorist, unannounced, from behind, from the darkness, from the most unexpected sector, and thereby saving his intended victims.

Only when this becomes the norm, when images of a dead terrorist flash across Facebook and Twitter…with a tight group of pistol bullets in his face, fired by a common man or woman who decided to not die quietly that day – rather than a police officer executed on the sidewalk…will the tide begin to change.

Do not fear the terrorist…the terrorist must learn to fear you.

Rather than “I am Charly”, let the unifying cry be this –

TODAY – EVERY MAN IS A COUNTER TERRORIST

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

As the scourge of terrorism grows uglier in the coming years, Suarez’s call to arms will undoubtedly be echoed by others.

You can read the entire Facebook post on The Suarez Group’s page here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Former Astronauts Push Effort To Locate, Track Threatening Asteroids

Here’s another natural-disaster related post where I’m going to send you straight to the source. David Perlman, science editor for San Francisco Chronicle, wrote on SFGate.com Sunday:

A group of former astronauts in the Bay Area announced last month they had marshaled more than 100 astronomers and space enthusiasts around the world to call for a major increase in efforts to locate and track all asteroids that could pose a danger to Earth…

At a recent Senate hearing, James Green, director of NASA’s planetary science division, said there may be hundreds of thousands of orbiting asteroids the size of the one that blasted apart over Chelyabinsk. It was not detected in advance by any NEO telescope, he said.

“Right now the amount of warning time that we are likely to get from one of these asteroids is zero,” [former astronaut Edward] Lu told the senators…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


Chelyabinsk, Russia, Meteor Strike: “Looks like a movie. But it is not.”
YouTube Video

Back in the fall of 1992, me and a buddy were driving his ’65 Mustang convertible (top down) to my family’s old cabin in southeastern Wisconsin when a meteor lit up the night sky- making everything as bright as day- before shooting down the country road we were on. The event was instantaneous, but I remember to this day the contrail left behind from that fireball.

One of the wildest things I’ve ever seen.

By the late 1990s I learned more about the threat posed by asteroids and meteors when I took up astronomy as a hobby, so I’m very happy to hear of such an initiative.

You can read Perlman’s entire article on the SFGate website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Gabe Suarez: ‘Today, Every Man Is A Counter Terrorist’

Because I’m busy compiling new “Resources Of The Week” for 2015, there’s won’t be a post from that series tonight.

But I also wanted to share with Survival And Prosperity readers before the week was out something I read earlier this evening on the Facebook page of The Suarez Group (“a multi-national corporation involved the study and application of high end weapons, and leading edge tactics, for students of the art of personal combat”).

I first mentioned Gabe Suarez, head of The Suarez Group and a decorated veteran of Southern California law enforcement, on this blog back in my April 28, 2011, post entitled, “The Next Mumbai-Style Terrorist Attack.” I wrote back then:

If an American Mumbai occurs, I’m guessing it will go down in a high-profile, internationally-known city whose residents/workers are likely to be unarmed and incapable of defending themselves against rampaging terrorists with automatic weapons- like my hometown of Chicago.

Still, it doesn’t hurt for Americans outside of the “Windy City” to prepare for such an event. Consider what Gabe Suarez, a decorated veteran of Southern California law enforcement and president of the personal safety training outfit Suarez International, wrote in his blog Warrior Talk News on May 6, 2010:

Put yourself in the enemy’s shoes….err, sandals…..which option would YOU pick? Which offers the easiest implementation, least chance for detection, greatest chance for success – bombs or bullets?

The mass shooting and not the improvised and unsuccessful bomb is the “easy button”, and that fact cannot be ignored by us as it will not be overlooked by the enemy.

So what do we do?

1). We must identify who the enemy is. Please go back and peruse the list of events above, both failed and successful. What is the common thread connecting the attackers?

2). Carry your gun everywhere…..a REAL fighting gun….not some sissy “suitable for CCW” 5 shot “self defense gun”.
The times are not such that concern over a mugger is the issue anymore. Carry extra ammo with you. It is not difficult at all to carry a full sized pistol with a couple of extra magazines. I have done so since 1983.

These are not the times to be seeking political correctness over public safety. It is not the time to fear false labels created and assigned by the mass media. The Israelis learned that lesson long ago. After all is said and done, it is better to be a live “intolerant racist” (as the MSM would call us) than a dead “co-existing”, tolerant “paragon of political correctness”. I suspect that had Shahzad’s bomb been successful, lots of tolerant, “co-exist” types would have died right alongside us “intolerant racists”. The times call for careful profiling and suspicious curiosity as well as daily preparation.

Dress everyday as if you had a business meeting in Mumbai on 26 November 2008 with a bunch of Jews, Christians, and atheist Americans at a cafe right across the street from the Jihad School Of Terrorism.

Be ready or be a victim.

“Be ready or be a victim.” Great words to live by.

No holds barred, right? Anyway, Suarez wrote the following yesterday concerning tactical matters related to the terrorism in France:

Today,

EVERY MAN IS A COUNTER TERRORIST

So consider the following – if you can, be armed always. Yes…I know. But consider the implications. Of the ten dead civilians in France, how many would have willingly disobeyed unconscionable laws in order to stay alive? If it is difficult, learn to conceal the weapon better. At the very least have a knife with which to stab a terrorist to death.

And stabbing a man to death is an exercise in extreme violence. It is not some strip mall karate school exercise done with high school kids to get in shape. It is violent and sudden and what the body does in its final moments will shock you…maybe, if you haven’t gotten your mind right about such matters.

If you look like the King Of Comedy rather than the King Of the Cage, put down the f*cking remote and get your ass in fighting shape. The terrorist coming to kill you has taken his fitness seriously…do you think he is kidding?

If you are armed your life is easier. Resist the temptation to leave the real sized fighting gun at home and go forth with some “civilian friendly metro sexual” pistol. Anyone can carry a full sized fighting pistol with a little fore thought and care in dressing for the weapon.

Consider that a terrorist event like what we saw in France is not the same as a CCW self defense encounter with concerns over legality, disparity of force, or liability. The moment that it is a terrorist event, all other concerns are non-issues. And a man or men with masks and rifles classifies as that.

Learn to shoot accurately at distance. There were guys photographing and videotaping the assassination of the French police officer. A good practiced hand with a proper pistol might have killed one or both of those terrorists at the distance.

There will be no warnings, no posting and challenging, only recognition of threat and escalation of violence…or as I term it, “getting ahead” of the fight by shooting. Learn to shoot faces and necks at room distances. Yes, there is a chance you will be killed by the terrorist…but you will be killed anyway.

And how do you want to look for the Crime Scene photos?

Under a desk hiding with a terrified look on your face and a back full of 7.62×39 rounds, or a smiling corpse on a mountain of brass and dead terrorists? I pray if I am given that choice I will be the guy in the second image. But….but, you might not be either one. You might survive and win if you are decisive enough, accurate enough, and violent enough.

Let us all be those things.

“A smiling corpse on a mountain of brass and dead terrorists”

Classic Suarez. And several points I, for one, will be left thinking about this weekend.

You can read the entire Facebook post on The Suarez Group’s page here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Britain’s MI5 Chief, Former CIA Deputy Director Issue Terrorism Warnings

There’s no doubt in my mind that terrorism will soon be coming to our doorstep again.

Conducted both “lone wolf” style and via organizational activity.

And two high-profile members of the U.S. and U.K. intelligence communities are suggesting the same. From the Agence France-Presse (AFP) website yesterday:

The head of Britain’s domestic spy agency MI5 warned on Thursday that militant Islamists in Syria were planning “mass casualty attacks” in the West and that intelligence services may be powerless to stop them.

“We know… that a group of core al-Qaeda terrorists in Syria is planning mass casualty attacks against the West,” Andrew Parker told journalists in London a day after an Islamist attack in Paris claimed 12 lives.

“Although we and our partners try our utmost, we know that we cannot hope to stop everything,” he added…

“We still face more complex and ambitious plots that follow the now sadly well-established approach of al-Qaeda and its imitators — attempts to cause large-scale loss of life, often by attacking transport systems or iconic targets,” he said.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

There’s also this from former CIA Deputy Director and CBS News Senior Security Contributor Michael Morell back on December 15, 2014. From an exchange between CBS This Morning co-host Norah O’Donnell and Morell (speaking about the Australian lone-wolf terrorist event going on that day):

O’DONNELL: Michael, when other countries will look at this incident, perhaps as ISIS succeeding in some way in encouraging lone wolves to carry out these types of attacks. What concerns you the most?

MORELL: What concerns me the most is that we’re going to see this kind of terrorism around the world, and we are going to see it here, Norah. We are going to see this kind of attack here. And we need to be prepared for that. It shouldn’t surprise people when this happens here sometime over the next year or so- guaranteed.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“When this happens here sometime over the next year or so- guaranteed”

Yikes. That’s the first time I’ve ever heard a timeframe being attached to a threat like that.

And a guarantee to boot.

Does Morell know something you and I don’t?

Considering his background- probably.


CBS Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(UPDATE: The Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security issued a terrorism-related intelligence bulletin Friday to 18,000 U.S. law enforcement agencies in the wake of the Paris terrorist events. However, it did not specify any specific threat to the U.S. homeland connected to the incidents in France.)

Source:

“Militants planning mass casualty attacks against West.” Agence France-Presse. 8 Jan. 2015. (http://news.yahoo.com/militants-planning-mass-casualty-attacks-against-west-uk-005654650.html). 9 Jan. 2014.

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