Federal Reserve

Peter Schiff Predicts Gold ‘Going A Lot Higher’ As Trump Fed Draws From ‘Well Of QE’

In a post yesterday about Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber, I noted that the the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report reportedly told atendees at a recent investment conference that the U.S. economy “is not doing well” and that he predicted U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will be a “Keynesian” and money printer. This reminded me of an appearance last week by fellow “crash prophet” Peter Schiff on the CNBC TV program Futures Now in which the economist, financial broker/dealer, and author talked about a Federal Reserve under a Trump administration. Schiff warned viewers:

I think they’re going to go back to the same monetary stimulus that failed and is the reason that Donald Trump was elected. A lot of people believe that simply electing Donald Trump solves all the economic problems that are the reason that he was elected. But the problems haven’t been solved and they can’t be solved unless we’re willing to bite the bullet and allow a painful economic restructuring that is going to be necessary to pave the way for real economic growth. But I still think we’re going to go back to the “well of QE.” And that we’re going to get more stimulus. We’re going to get another quantitative easing. And I still believe that the Fed might reverse course and start cutting rates again, even as inflation accelerates…


“Huge bond bear market just beginning”
CNBC Video

The CEO of Euro Pacific Capital mentioned earlier in the segment that “inflation is accelerating at a much faster pace than the Fed is nudging up interest rates.” Within such an environment, gold could shine. Schiff added:

Gold benefits from inflation. The only way that you might undermine gold with inflation is if you have a Paul Volcker-style reaction from the Fed where they agressively raise interest rates to try and restrain it. And that’s not even conceivable that we could do that due to the enormity of the debt that we have. So if people understand that yes, we’re going to get more inflation, but there’s nothing the Fed can do about it but make the problem worse, then people see that there’s a lot of reasons to be buying gold. And certainly 1,200 has acted as pretty solid support. So the fact that we pulled back from 1,320-1,330 on the eve of the Trump victory back down to this support I think provides a good buying opportunity for people to buy more gold. Because I do think it’s going a lot higher during the Trump presidency.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Donald Trump Inheriting A ‘Poisoned Chalice’?

I’ve had this suspicion for some time now that whoever won the 2016 U.S. presidential election is very likely inheriting a “poisoned chalice.”

When I launched Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street,” on Memorial Day weekend 2007, I started warning readers of a coming U.S. financial collapse.

After moving on to Survival And Prosperity in 2010, I came to believe the economy/larger financial system had already entered a long, drawn-out descent before the eventual crash.

That downward trajectory would be punctuated by crises like what reared its ugly head in the autumn of 2008.

Financial types were quick to label the recession at the end of last decade as the “Great Recession.”

This “nattering nabob of negativity” thinks it’s only a matter of time before a “Greater Recession” strikes, fueled by Washington and the Fed “kicking the can down the road” and having too few bullets left when that “road” inevitably runs out.

President-elect Trump is also aware of the possibility of such economic upheaval.

Bob Woodward and Robert Costa reported on The Washington Post website back on April 2, 2016:

Donald Trump said in an interview that economic conditions are so perilous that the country is headed for a “very massive recession” and that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in the stock market, embracing a distinctly gloomy view of the economy that counters mainstream economic forecasts…

Trump has for months contended that the U.S. economy is in trouble because of what he sees as an overvalued stock market, but his view has grown more pessimistic of late and he is now bearish on investing, to the point of warning Americans against doing so.

“I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble,” Trump said. He made clear that he was not specifying a sector of the economy but the economy at large and asserted that more bullish forecasts were based on skewed employment numbers and an inflated stock market.

“First of all, we’re not at 5 percent unemployment. We’re at a number that’s probably into the twenties if you look at the real number,” Trump said. “That was a number that was devised, statistically devised to make politicians- and, in particular, presidents — look good. And I wouldn’t be getting the kind of massive crowds that I’m getting if the number was a real number.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Yet Trump, as President-elect of the United States, chooses to accept the potential “poisoned chalice,” from which he might be forced to drink from during his tenure in the Oval Office as the current economic expansion grows long in the tooth.

Consider the following from Jeffrey Sparshott in The Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog this morning:

Donald Trump is poised to inherit one of the longest-lived economic expansions since the World War II era. Barring any sudden shock or sudden acceleration, the president-elect will also take office during the weakest

The economy has been growing for more than seven years, ranking the expansion the fourth-longest since 1949 (when quarterly data became available). If economic expansion continues through Mr. Trump’s first term, it will be the longest.

While gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic of output, is advancing, it’s been at the slowest rate on record for an expansion

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’d like to think Donald Trump and the Republicans could turn this ship around and avert economic disaster.

I, for one, would only be too happy to be proven wrong about my prediction of a “Greater Recession” and eventual collapse.

But I fear the damage may already be done.

So much so that the incoming White House might want to level with the American people about what might be in store for them from an economic standpoint.

Otherwise, the public will have less of a fighting chance of weathering the financial storm should it hit.

Not to mention opponents of a Trump administration will try hard to pin the blame on them for a painful event previous administrations played a big part in creating.

One need only look at Illinois where Republican Governor Bruce Rauner (only 22 months in office) is facing the same baseless charges for decades of mismanagement perpetrated by those across the political aisle.

President-elect Trump has his work cut out for him as the economy is concerned. The billionaire businessman seems to be up for the challenge, and America will know soon enough if he can pull off yet another amazing feat.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Costa, Robert and Woodward, Bob. “In a revealing interview, Trump predicts a ‘massive recession’ but intends to eliminate the national debt in 8 years.” The Washington Post. 2 Apr. 2016. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-turmoil-or-triumph-donald-trump-stands-alone/2016/04/02/8c0619b6-f8d6-11e5-a3ce-f06b5ba21f33_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumppresidency-7pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory). 11 Nov. 2016.

Sparshott, Jeffrey. “The U.S. Economy President Donald Trump Will Inherit, in 11 Charts.” Real Time Economics. 11 Nov. 2016. (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/11/11/the-u-s-economy-president-donald-trump-will-inherit-in-11-charts/). 11 Nov. 2016.

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Peter Schiff: ‘I Would Rather Go Into The Election Long Gold, Short The Dollar As My Main Trades’

Yesterday I spotted economist, financial broker/dealer, and author Peter Schiff on the RT America show Boom Bust. Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis in the last decade, talked about how the financial markets might react to either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning next week’s U.S. presidential election. He told viewers:

Well, I think the markets will react negatively to a Trump victory because there’s more uncertainty surrounding what a Trump presidency would look like. I mean, you say, “Well, with Clinton it’s the devil you know.” But I think in this case “the devil you know” is pretty bad. I’d rather take a shot at the one that we don’t. But I think the markets will be worried about what it might mean and I think the markets will sell off. I think gold will rally. I think the dollar will sell off. But longer term- and of course traders don’t think about the long term, they’re just trading for what’s happening right now- long term, I think a Clinton presidency is much worse for the U.S. economy and therefore ultimately much worse for the U.S. stock market. But in the short run, we have a bubble. And all people are concerned with now, at least traders, are what is going to happen to keep the air from coming out of that bubble. And nobody really wants to challenge the status quo. They want to continue this cozy relationship between the government, the Fed, and Wall Street. And Hillary Clinton means that they will continue it as long as they can. And a Trump presidency really throws a monkey wrench into that because nobody really knows what it means…

Answering a question about how investors should position themselves, Schiff said:

I would rather go into the election long gold, short the dollar as my main trades. And the stock market doesn’t seem as interesting a trade to me as currencies and metal.,,

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jeremy Grantham: ‘Still No Signs Of An Equity Bubble About To Break’

Right before the weekend, Jeremy Grantham, the British-born investment strategist and founder/former chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (currently overseeing $99 billion in client assets), penned an article on the Barron’s website entitled “Jeremy Grantham Warns on Immigration, Brexit.” As part of this piece Grantham, whose individual clients have included former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, talked about U.S. stock prices. He wrote:

Despite brutal and widespread asset overpricing, there are still no signs of an equity bubble about to break, indeed cash reserves and other signs of bearishness are weirdly high.

In my opinion, the economy still has some spare capacity to grow moderately for a while. All the great market declines of modern times- 1972, 2000, and 2007- that went down at least 50% were preceded by great optimism as well as high prices. We can have an ordinary bear market of 10% or 20% but a serious decline still seems unlikely in my opinion. Now if we could just have a breakout rally to over 2300 on the S&P 500 and a bit of towel throwing by the bears, things could change. (2300 is our statistical definition of a bubble threshold.) But for now I believe the best bet is still that the U.S. market will hang in or better, at least through the election

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“2300 is our statistical definition of a bubble threshold”

2,300 on the S&P 500 was the same bubble threshold Grantham indicated in his last quarterly investment newsletter contribution. He wrote in May:

2) that we are unlikely, given the beliefs and practices of the U.S. Fed, to end this cycle without a bubble in the U.S. equity market or, perish the thought, in a repeat of the U.S. housing bubble; 3) the threshold for a bubble level for the U.S. market is about 2300 on the S&P 500, about 10% above current levels, and would normally require a substantially more bullish tone on the part of both individual and institutional investors; 4) it continues to seem unlikely to me that this current equity cycle will top out before the election and perhaps it will last considerably longer…

As I type this Monday afternoon, the S&P 500 stands at 2,167.

An interesting article by Grantham, which you can read in its entirety here on the Barron’s website.

By the way, I noticed there’s a comment attached to that piece from “Christopher Hill.” That is not from me.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘This Is A New Leg Of The Gold Bull Market’

Economist, financial broker/dealer, and author Peter Schiff was interviewed by Kitco News Editor-In-Chief Daniela Cambone last Friday out at FreedomFest in Las Vegas. Schiff, who correctly-called last decade’s housing crash and the global economic crisis, believes gold is entering a new phase in a secular bull market that began back around the turn of the millennium. He told viewers:

I think gold is not only going to re-test the highs from 2011 when it was close to $1,900, but it’s going to surpass those highs and move into much higher territory

I think this is a new leg of the gold bull market. I mean gold’s been in a secular bull market since 2000, 1999-2000. We had a cyclical bear market that I believe ended with the Fed hiked rates in December. And now we have the new leg of the bull market, which I think potentially could be an even bigger leg than the first leg, which saw gold go from sub-$300 to close to $2,000. So if this leg is bigger than that, you can just imagine how high the price might go.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“We’ve Entered a New Leg of a Gold Bull Market”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Peter Schiff Sees ‘Enormous Round Of Quantitative Easing’ Ahead For U.S.

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, just published a new entry to his Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast vlog on YouTube.com. Schiff talked about what’s behind the recent take-off in precious metal prices. From last Friday:

What’s really behind the metals rise is not what’s happening in Europe, but I believe what’s going to be happening here in the United States, because I believe the Federal Reserve is going to use the turmoil in the markets that followed that [“Brexit”] vote as the excuse that it’s been waiting for, not only not to raise rates, but to cut rates and to launch QE 4. In fact, that is the main reason, I believe, that the markets have recovered somewhat from their Brexit-related losses. Because if you look at the financial markets, they are now pricing in for the first time a higher probability that the next move by the Federal Reserve will be to cut rates, not to raise them. Now remember, I’ve been saying this the whole time. Ever since the Federal Reserve raised rates in December I was saying the likelihood was that the next move would be a cut and not another increase…

As we continue to get more weak economic data that continues to surprise all the bulls who are expecting strong data, it’s not going to be long before the talk of rate hikes is really replaced first by the talk of rate cuts, and then by actual cuts. And of course since there’s not a lot of room for the Fed to cut rates because it never really raised them, the real monetary stimulus is going to come from an enormous round of quantitative easing

The reason there was such a violent reaction in the financial markets to Brexit wasn’t because Brexit is so terrible, it just shows you how precarious the global financial system is. It’s all perched upon these props of cheap money and central banking. It’s all based on hype and hope and confidence. And when something shakes the confidence, you see the immediate result. The central bankers are going to do everything they can to keep this bubble from deflating. And that means more money printing not only here but around the world. And all the naysayers, all the guys that were saying “Oh, Peter Schiff was wrong,” “The Fed was right,” “Bernanke was right- he was the hero,” “Paul Krugman was right- there is no inflation.” All the people who had these premature victory laps are going to have a lot of egg on their face. But in the meantime, there isn’t a lot of time left for people to buy gold and silver while there are still people foolish enough to sell it

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Silver Confirms Gold’s Breakout”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Signs Of The Time, Part 104

In the May 2016 issue of The Atlantic there’s an article entitled “The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans.” Neal Gabler writes:

Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted a survey to “monitor the financial and economic status of American consumers.” Most of the data in the latest survey, frankly, are less than earth-shattering: 49 percent of part-time workers would prefer to work more hours at their current wage; 29 percent of Americans expect to earn a higher income in the coming year; 43 percent of homeowners who have owned their home for at least a year believe its value has increased. But the answer to one question was astonishing. The Fed asked respondents how they would pay for a $400 emergency. The answer: 47 percent of respondents said that either they would cover the expense by borrowing or selling something, or they would not be able to come up with the $400 at all. Four hundred dollars! Who knew?

I didn’t know.

But I’m really not surprised to learn of it either.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Gabler, Neal. “The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans.” The Atlantic. May 2016. (http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/my-secret-shame/476415/). 24 May 2016.

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Peter Schiff: Obama, Federal Reserve, Government Have Failed As ‘This Economy Is A Disaster’

Economist, financial broker/dealer, and author Peter Schiff appeared on the Alex Jones Show last Friday. Schiff, who correctly-called last decade’s housing crash and recent global economic crisis, discussed a number of subjects with Jones, including Puerto’s Rico’s recent default/economic crisis and “modest” U.S. inflation numbers. The “crash prophet” said of the U.S. territory:

It’s never a problem until it is. So Puerto Rico is broke, but now it’s a problem because the creditors figured out that they’re broke. Well America is more broke than Puerto Rico. That’s a fact. It’s just that our creditors haven’t figured it out yet. But when they do, then Donald Trump is going to end up being right, because all we can do is default. And if we don’t default, if we print money- which now Trump is saying, “Oh, we don’t have to default because we can print.” Well printing is worse than default, because printing doesn’t just wipe out the bondholders, it wipes out anybody who hold U.S. dollars.

When asked by Alex Jones where all the inflation is being hidden, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital pointed out:

It’s actually hiding in plain sight because, because first of all, the inflation is all the money printing. That’s the definition. The consequence of inflation is that prices go up. But look, stock prices went way up. Real estate prices went back up. Rare art went back up. Collectible cars went back up. I mean, asset prices have gone up like crazy- that is inflation. And, of course, anybody who lives in America knows that the prices are going up. Look, rents are up about 8 percent year-over-year. Look how much health care costs have gone up. Utilities are going up. Look at the price of food. Have you bought a steak recently at a supermarket? Prices are going up. It’s just that the government is not doing an accurate job of reporting, and that is by design…. The standard of living is going down. Americans are working two or three jobs a piece. And they can barely make ends meet. You know, this economy is a disaster. And everyone wants to pretend that it’s great, because no one wants to admit that Obama is a complete failure, that the Federal Reserve was a complete failure, that everything that government has done has failed.


“Venezuela Is America’s Socialist Future”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Marc Faber: ‘Most Attractive Assets In My View Are Gold Shares And Oil And Gas Shares’

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the phone with the CNBC TV show Trading Nation last Wednesday. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked investment strategy, and shared the following with viewers:

My view is that in June, [the Federal Reserve] will not move, that they will not increase rates. And that the market will begin to perceive that the Fed wants to support asset markets, which they have stated on numerous occasions before. And that in that environment, gold, which from now on may correct maybe 5 percent or so, will start to move up again. I think an investor should understand, we don’t know how far central banks will move around the world. We need to be diversified. To own some real estate makes sense. To own some equities makes sense. To own some cash and bonds probably makes sense. And to own some precious metals makes sense. The most attractive assets in my view are gold shares and oil and gas shares. I think they still have significant upside potential this year.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Marc Faber on investment strategy”
CNBC Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jeremy Grantham: U.S. House Prices ‘Might Beat The U.S. Equity Market In The Race To Cause The Next Financial Crisis’

Last night I finally got the chance to read the latest quarterly investment letter from “crash prophet” Jeremy Grantham, the British-born investment strategist and founder/former chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (currently oversees $99 billion in client assets). Grantham divided up May’s installment (covering the first quarter of 2016) into two parts. Part I, “Always Cry Over Spilt Milk,” was a recap of a paper he wrote six months ago. Part II was entitled “Updates,” in which Grantham provided these investing nuggets:

The tone of the market commentators back in January, when I was writing my last quarterly letter, seemed much too pessimistic on global stock markets, particularly the U.S. market, and I said so.

This relative optimism was an unusual position for me and the snapback in these markets has validated, to a modest degree, my thinking at the time. I still believe the following: 1) that we did not then, and do not today, have the necessary conditions to say that today’s world has a bubble in any of the most important asset classes; 2) that we are unlikely, given the beliefs and practices of the U.S. Fed, to end this cycle without a bubble in the U.S. equity market or, perish the thought, in a repeat of the U.S. housing bubble; 3) the threshold for a bubble level for the U.S. market is about 2300 on the S&P 500, about 10% above current levels, and would normally require a substantially more bullish tone on the part of both individual and institutional investors; 4) it continues to seem unlikely to me that this current equity cycle will top out before the election and perhaps it will last considerably longer; and 5) the U.S. housing market, although well below 2006 highs, is nonetheless approaching a one and one-half-sigma level based on its previous history. Given the intensity of the pain we felt so recently, we might expect that such a bubble would be psychologically impossible, but the data in Exhibit 1 speaks for itself. This is a classic echo bubble – i.e., driven partly by the feeling that the substantially higher prices in 2006 (with its three-sigma bubble) somehow justify today’s merely one and one-half-sigma prices. Prices have been rising rapidly recently and at this rate will reach one and three-quarters-sigma this summer. Thus, unlikely as it may sound, in 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices – much more dangerous than inflated stock prices in my opinion – might beat the U.S. equity market in the race to cause the next financial crisis

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Note that bit about “the threshold for a bubble level for the U.S. market is about 2300 on the S&P 500.” 2,300 remains the same threshold from the last time I blogged about Jeremy Grantham on Survival And Prosperity (it had been 2,250 prior to this). As I type this, the S&P 500 is at 2,064.

In addition to U.S. stock and housing prices, Grantham talked about crude oil. From the newsletter:

My belief remains that a multi-year clearing price for oil would be the cost of finding a material amount of new oil. This appears to be about $65 a barrel today, and costs are drifting steadily higher as the cheapest old oil is pumped. My guess is that the price of oil will indeed be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Once again, another insightful installment from the British “crash prophet.”

You can read the entire piece on GMO’s website here (.pdf format)

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Survival And Prosperity
Est. 2010, Chicagoland, USA
Christopher E. Hill, Editor

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