Survival And Prosperity

Peter Schiff On GDP Calculation ‘Makeover,’ Delaying Our ‘Day Of Reckoning,’ And Gold Speculators

Lots of catching up going on around here today. I just got finished watching Peter Schiff’s latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital zeroed-in on the “makeover” in calculating U.S. gross domestic product, delaying our “financial reckoning day,” and the situation small speculators may find themselves in after helping fuel gold’s price drop the other week. Regarding GDP, Schiff pointed out the following in yesterday’s video blog post:

When the government gets around to delivering the news for the second quarter, the U.S. economy is going to be quite a bit larger than it was during the fourth quarter. Now, it’s not going to be because we’re actually more productive, it’s because the government is going to launch a brand new methodology for computing the GDP. They’re going to change the way they’ve been doing it all these years. And they’re going to start to include a bunch of things that in the past, they never included. They’re going to include things that no other country includes when they calculate their GDP. And as a result of this makeover, these brand new additions, I think instantaneously the U.S. economy is going to be 3 percent larger. That’s a big number. It’s like 4 or 500 billion dollars of GDP is going to be conjured out of thin air just based on the change in the methodology for computating GDP.

You know, this is what the government does. They change the way they compute statistics. Unemployment’s too high? Okay, we’ll calculate it another way. Now it’s not as high. Inflation’s too high? Wait a minute, let’s find another way to calculate the inflation rate. Oh look, we’ve solved the inflation problem- there’s not that much inflation.

Now, the government wants the economy to appear bigger. Why? Well, because it makes the debt-to-GDP look smaller. A lot of people are talking about debt-to-GDP now. Well, if they can make the GDP larger by figuring out another way to calculate it, well now they can make that ratio appear better.

Also, people are talking about government spending as a share of GDP. Okay, let’s make the GDP larger, and that means that government spending has now come down as a share of this larger number.

Schiff, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust and “Panic of ’08,” had this to say about the coming U.S. financial crash:

The fact of the matter is, governments are borrowing too much, they’re printing too much, they’re spending too much, and it’s all in a vain attempt to try to artificially stimulate an economy that’s been overstimulated, and to delay the “day of reckoning.” And the problem is, the longer they delay it, the more we have to reckon with. And, ultimately, we’ve going to have to pay a huge price for the fact that we didn’t deal with these problems sooner, rather than later.

“Slow ‘growth’,GDP makeover, Keynesians demand more debt and inflation”
YouTube Video

Finally, Schiff, who’s also the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, talked about gold’s recent price drop, who he thought was behind it, and what may be in store for them. From the video post:

I think the major selling in the metals market has come from the small speculator that trades on the futures market, that trades on the ETF. That’s where all the selling has been. The small speculators. I don’t think the larger investors have cashed in. They’re probably holding on. And the real buyers, the buyers in the physical market- who are not just trying to jump on a moving train to try and catch a small move because they want to get in on something that’s going up- the physical demand has been ongoing and consistent for years. But you have had some of the “Johnny Come Lately” hot money among smaller speculators. They’ve jumped on, they’re the ones that have sold, they cashed out. In fact, I think you have a lot of small speculators that are now short gold, that sold into the lows, and that are holding onto these positions with losses. And we’ll see how long they can hold those losses as the price moves higher and we turn up the heat. I think a lot of those people that were quick to short the market are going to end up covering at much higher prices.

Good insights as usual from this “crash prophet.”

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Tags: debt-to-GDP, gold, gold prices, government spending, gross domestic product, money printing, Peter Schiff, physical gold, speculators, The Schiff Report

U.S. Economy Grew Only 0.1 Percent Last Quarter

Since the following economic news wasn’t being talked about too much in the mainstream media Thursday, I thought I’d share it here. From the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis website:

National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2012 (second estimate)

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP declined 0.1 percent. The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision from the advance to second estimate of 0.5 percentage point. While today’s release has revised the direction of change in real GDP, the general picture of the economy for the fourth quarter remains largely the same as what was presented last month (for more information, see “Revisions” on page 3).

All that government intervention, all that stimulus, all that new debt. To which I say:

“Keepin’ your head above water…”

You can read the entire news release on the BEA webpage here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Tags: BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product, real GDP, U.S. Department of Commerce

Eurozone Slipped Deeper Into Double-Dip Recession At End Of 2012

Bad news from across the pond. Europe is getting pummeled by a double-dip recession. Philip Blenkinsop and Annika Breidthardt reported on the Reuters website this afternoon:

The euro zone slipped deeper than expected into recession in the last three months of 2012 after its largest economies, Germany and France, shrank at the end of a wretched year for the region.

It marked the currency bloc’s first full year in which no quarter produced growth, extending back to 1995. For the year as a whole, gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5 percent.

Economic output in the 17-country region fell by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, EU statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday, following a 0.1 percent output drop in the third.

The quarter-on-quarter drop was the steepest since the first quarter of 2009…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

What is it we’ve witnessed in Europe on a consistent basis since the global economic crisis really roared its ugly in the fall of 2008? A sovereign debt crisis emerges in one Eurozone nation, the problem is literally papered over, and then another one flares up somewhere else in the region.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Brian Blackstone and Christopher Emsden wrote on the Wall Street Journal website tonight:

The 2.3% drop in euro-zone gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, at an annualized pace, suggests that Europe’s economic and financial crisis is far from over. The region’s deepening malaise challenges European authorities’ insistence that fiscal austerity will lead to growth by boosting business confidence, economists say.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Europe tries to tackle its debt problem by implementing austerity, and they get a double-dip recession.

America keeps borrowing, spending, and growing its debts, and we manage to keep our heads above water for the time being.

“Spending our way to prosperity.” That’s the course the powers-that-be have charted for us.

As if the rules of finance and economics don’t apply here.

I fear the coming lesson will be a painful one. History shows it usually is.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Blenkinsop, Philip and Breidthardt, Annika. “Euro zone economy falls deeper than expected into recession.” Reuters. 14 Feb. 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/14/us-europe-economy-idUSBRE91D0CX20130214). 14 Feb. 2013.

Blackstone, Brian and Emsden, Christopher. “Europe Woes Deepen as Economies Contract.” Wall Street Journal. 14 Feb. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324162304578303503840132168.html). 14 Feb. 2013.

Tags: austerity, double-dip recession, Eurozone, France, Germany, sovereign debt, sovereign debt crisis

Quote For The Week

Something like the Dow going to 14,000. I can contain my enthusiasm about that. It doesn’t mean very much…

I don’t think the economic signs are going to change very much. The path of our economy, which, I think, 2 percent real GDP growth in the year 2013 is not a bad target- maybe 2.5. That hasn’t changed whether the Dow is 14,000 or 12,000 or 16,000.

-John “Jack” Bogle, chairman and founder of mutual fund company The Vanguard Group, on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street Friday, February 1

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Tags: Dow Jones index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, John Bogle

Labor Minister: France ‘Is A Totally Bankrupt State’

Speaking of France, how is the Socialist-led European state faring these days?

Not so great, it seems.

In fact, a pretty reliable source claims they’re bankrupt.

Graham Ruddick reported on The Telegraph (UK) website Monday:

Michel Sapin made the gaffe in a radio interview, which left French President Francois Hollande battling to undo the potential reputational damage.

“There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,” Mr Sapin said. “That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective.”

The comments came as President Hollande attempts to improve the image of the French economy after pledging to reduce the country’s deficit by cutting spending by €60bn (£51.5bn) over the next five years and increasing taxes by €20bn.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

As I mentioned earlier tonight, some claim President Obama desires French-style Socialism for the United States.

If France’s economy truly is in shambles, and the U.S. President really wants to emulate them, well- here’s a glimpse of what Americans could expect. From an Investor’s Business Daily editorial yesterday:

Fresh after May 2012′s election, President Francois Hollande wasted no time raising government spending, hiking tax rates to 75% on those above $1.3 million in income, hiring 60,000 bureaucrats, cutting the retirement age for public pensions to 60 and undoing fiscal reforms by his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy. During his campaign, Hollande declared himself “the enemy of finance.” France today proves it…

Public debt has soared from 68% of GDP in 2008 to 90% in 2012, joblessness has hit 11%, and GDP growth of its $2.8 trillion economy is projected in 2013 at zero.

Tax hikes have driven the richest taxpayers from the country, making the $43 billion budget hole unlikely to be plugged by Hollande’s $26 billion tax hike. Meanwhile, a squeeze on business creates rising numbers of unemployed, who in turn demand state services.

Time will tell how this will all work out for the Socialists in France. But if history rhymes once again, keep in mind something former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said in a 1976 interview:

Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money. It’s quite a characteristic of them. They then start to nationalise everything, and people just do not like more and more nationalisation, and they’re now trying to control everything by other means. They’re progressively reducing the choice available to ordinary people.

Any of this sound familiar?

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Ruddick, Graham. “France ‘totally bankrupt’, says labour minister Michel Sapin.” The Telegraph. 28 Jan. 2013. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9832845/France-totally-bankrupt-says-labour-minister-Michel-Sapin.html). 30 Jan. 2013.

“Like The Bourbons, France’s Socialists Have Learned Nothing, Forgotten Nothing.” Investor’s Business Daily. 29 Jan. 2013. (http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/012913-642388-france-socialist-model-is-same-old-recipe-for-bankruptcy.htm). 30 Jan. 2013.

Tags: Barack Obama, Big Government, France, Francois Hollande, Margaret Thatcher, Michel Sapin, Nicolas Sarkozy, pensions, public pensions, Socialists, tax hikes, unemployment, United Kingdom

CNBC’s Rick Santelli After GDP Report: ‘We Are Now Europe’

Here’s something I keep hearing with more frequency these days:

Barack Obama is transforming America into Europe.

More specifically, the U.S. President is pushing us towards French-style Socialism.

Now, I’m not so sure about that. But CNBC’s Rick Santelli sure seems to think there’s some truth to it.

Get a load of the on-air editor down at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange this morning when the fourth quarter GDP was announced:

“Rick Santelli Responds to Negative GDP Report: ‘We Are Now Europe’”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Tags: Barack Obama, France, Rick Santelli

GDP Drop Blamed On Hurricane Sandy, Republicans

In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, some talking heads on the TV were saying how the U.S. economy would take a significant hit from all the destruction. I remember turning to my girlfriend and saying, “Well, there’s their out.” I went on to explain that if the economic numbers for the fourth quarter ended up being crummy, the White House would just go ahead and blame Sandy.

So while I was a little surprised to hear about the drop in GDP today (I thought enough “stimulus” was already coursing through the financial system), the same can’t be said about what the White House said this morning. Alan Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, wrote on The White House Blog today:

According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today, real GDP edged down 0.1 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2012, amid signs that Hurricane Sandy disrupted economic activity and Federal defense spending declined precipitously, likely due to uncertainty stemming from the sequester. This was the first quarterly drop in real GDP in three-and-a-half years (see first chart below). Over the last fourteen quarters, the economy has expanded by 7.5 percent overall, and the private components of GDP have grown by 10.9 percent. During the four quarters of 2012, real GDP grew by 1.5 percent, the third consecutive year of economic expansion.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Don’t get me started on that “economic expansion” bit, as it’s been oh-so-terrific for many Americans.

Hurricane Sandy’s economic impact and a decline in government spending last quarter is repeatedly mentioned in the blog post, leading some to believe that the Obama administration is blaming the economic contraction last quarter a good deal on that late October storm and the Republican Party. Reuters’ Mark Felsenthal wrote on Yahoo! News this afternoon:

The White House on Wednesday blamed the surprising contraction of the economy at the end of last year at least partly on Republican “political brinkmanship” for threatening to let defense cuts take effect.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said similar threats over a looming March 1 deadline when defense and other cuts take effect absent a broader budget deal could similarly hurt the U.S. economy and taxpayers.

“This is political brinkmanship with one primary victim, and that is American taxpayers and the American middle class,” Carney said at a briefing.

“Our economy is facing a major headwind … and that’s Republicans in Congress.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Since the campaign for the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, Barack Obama and the Democratic Party have consistently blamed George W. Bush and the Republican Party for the nation’s ongoing economic woes (I submit both major political parties are truly at fault and the damage began decades earlier). Believing that this strategy worked to retain the Oval Office in 2012, and based on Carney’s words today, be prepared to hear even more blamethrowing of this type going forward in President Obama’s second term.

In the meantime, the financial house of cards keeps growing more unstable with trillions of dollars of debt being continually heaped upon it.

Hurricane Sandy. The GOP. How about the “stimulus” being injected into the cancer (debt)-ridden patient is perhaps becoming less effective over time? Instead of a strong, sustainable economic recovery, we’re seeing a weak one that’s requiring constant assistance.

What QE are we on again?

Furthermore, Washington and the Fed are “running out of bullets.” It’s somewhat amazing they’ve managed to “kick the can down the road” this far.

Looking back on today’s GDP announcement and related events, it’s apparent the blamethrowers are alive and well in the nation’s capital.

And the proverbial brick wall- or our “financial reckoning day,” as some like to call it- keeps getting closer.

Be advised.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Krueger, Alan. “Advance Estimate of GDP for the Fourth Quarter of 2012.” The White House Blog. 30 Jan. 2013. (http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/01/30/advance-estimate-gdp-fourth-quarter-2012). 30 Jan. 2013.

Felsenthal, Mark. “White House blames Republican ‘brinkmanship’ for GDP contraction.” Reuters. 30 Jan. 2013. (http://news.yahoo.com/white-house-accuses-republicans-brinkmanship-spending-cuts-181022857–business.html). 30 Jan. 2013.

Tags: 2008 election, 2012 election, Alan Krueger, Barack Obama, Council of Economic Advisers, Democrats, George W. Bush, Hurricane Sandy, hurricanes, Jay Carney, Republicans, severe weather

S&P: U.S. Has 20 To 25 Percent Chance Of ‘Double-Dip’ Recession, Eurozone Enters New One

The economists over at well-known American financial services company Standard & Poor’s (S&P) are warning about a possible “double-dip” recession for the United States, and are saying the Eurozone has entered a new one. Agustino Fontevecchia wrote last Friday on the Forbes website:

There’s a 20% to 25% chance that the U.S. economy will suffer a double-dip recession, according to a report by Standard & Poor’s. The credit rating agency which downgraded the U.S.’ sovereign credit rating last year noted unemployment could peak above 9%, real GDP would contract 0.9%, and housing markets would once again collapse under their adverse scenario. The catalyst: Congress failing to reach an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff.

No matter what happens, a strong economic recovery is “a long ways away,” explained S&P’s deputy chief economist, Beth Ann Bovino. A poor labor market, with businesses adding a paltry 97,000 jobs per month over the last six months, has kept the economic recovery in “slow gear.” (During the winter, the economy added an average 240,000 jobs per month, she noted).

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

This warning of an economic slowdown echoes what S&P economists were saying a month prior. From the AFP website on August 21:

The odds the United States will slip back into recession next year have risen, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said, citing risks from the European debt crisis and budget tightening at year-end.

The US ratings firm raised the chance of the US falling into recession to 25 percent, up from a 20 percent chance estimated in February, as the world’s largest economy struggles to recover from a severe 2008-2009 slump.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Just this morning, S&P said the Eurozone was entering a new recession. Steve Gelsi wrote on the MarketWatch website:

“The data are confirming our view that the [Eurozone] region is entering a new period of recession, after three quarters of negative or flat growth since the final quarter of 2010,” according to Jean-Michel Six, the rating agency’s chief economist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Sources:

Fontevecchia, Agustino. “Double-Dip Recession 20% To 25% Likely If Fiscal Cliff Hits, S&P Warns.” Forbes. 21 Sep. 2012. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/09/21/double-dip-recession-20-to-25-likely-if-fiscal-cliff-hits-sp-warns/). 25 Sep. 2012.

“Risk of US double-dip recession rises: S&P.” Agence France-Presse. 21 Aug. 2012. (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hUW6S9xn4PTe3Oy6FaZ5SqADbALw?docId=CNG.9261c794f17a86efcc8
014d16fa164f9.121). 25 Sep. 2012.

Gelsi, Steve. “S&P says new recession hitting euro zone.” MarketWatch. 25 Sep. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-says-new-recession-hitting-euro-zone-2012-09-25?reflink=MW_news_stmp). 25 Sep. 2012.

Tags: Beth Ann Bovino, Congress, double-dip recession, European sovereign debt crisis, Eurozone, fiscal cliff, Jean-Michel Six, S&P, Standard & Poor's, unemployment

IMF’s Lagarde: U.S. Fiscal Cliff Is ‘Risk Number One’ To Global Economy

Washington policymakers have seen Europe’s ongoing sovereign debt crisis as a welcome distraction away from America’s financial woes. But Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, recently pointed out the danger our economic ills pose to the global economy. From MNI (a leading provider of global foreign exchange and fixed income markets news/intelligence) last Thursday:

The looming US fiscal cliff is the number one risk globally at present, followed by the Eurozone and then the threat of another oil price surge, IMF head Christine Lagarde says.

Lagarde, speaking at the Global Investment Conference here, said the Eurozone is clearly at the epicentre of the crisis right now but is far from the only risk at present.

“Risk number one … is clearly the fiscal cliff in the United States of America, where the deficit and debt to GDP ratios are actually worse than in the Eurozone,” she said.

Although the US does not face the Eurozone’s challenge of trying to secure accords with a host of states, its legislators are also struggling to take action.

“There is great uncertainty as to how Congress is going to actually deal with this fiscal cliff,” she said.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

According to Reuters on Sunday, Congress will try to work something out concerning this “fiscal cliff”- after the November elections. From their website on July 29:

The U.S. Congress is unlikely to resolve looming tax and spending issues before the Nov. 6 elections, a top Senate Democrat said on Sunday, but lawmakers are working on a proposal to tackle the issue after the elections.

Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, said a bipartisan group of eight lawmakers is in talks to develop a solution to the steep tax increases and spending cuts, known as a “fiscal cliff,” that take effect at the end of the year if no action is taken.

Stay tuned…

Sources:

“IMF Lagarde: US Fiscal Cliff Key Global Risk; Oil A Worry.” MNI. 26 July 2012. (https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/index.php/imf-lagarde-us-fiscal-cliff-key-global-risk-oil-worry?q=content/imf-lagarde-us-fiscal-cliff-key-global-risk-oil-worry). 1 Aug. 2012.

“Durbin: US ‘fiscal cliff’ solution unlikely before election.” Reuters. 29 July 2012. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/29/usa-congress-fiscalcliff-idUSL2E8IT1AZ20120729). 1 Aug. 2012.

Tags: 2012 election, budget deficits, Christine Lagarde, Congress, crude oil, debt-to-GDP, Dick Durbin, European sovereign debt crisis, IMF, International Monetary Fund, oil prices, sovereign debt crisis, U.S. fiscal cliff

Nouriel Roubini: The Pollyannas Are Wrong As Usual, The U.S. Economy Is Slowing

It’s been a few months since I last mentioned Dr. Nouriel Roubini, a former Treasury official in the Clinton administration who correctly-called the 2008 global financial crisis. But last Friday the professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics appeared on the Project Syndicate website to call out the economic Pollyannas and warn the U.S. economy is slowing. Roubini wrote:

While the risk of a disorderly crisis in the eurozone is well recognized, a more sanguine view of the United States has prevailed. For the last three years, the consensus has been that the US economy was on the verge of a robust and self-sustaining recovery that would restore above-potential growth. That turned out to be wrong, as a painful process of balance-sheet deleveraging – reflecting excessive private-sector debt, and then its carryover to the public sector – implies that the recovery will remain, at best, below-trend for many years to come.

Even this year, the consensus got it wrong, expecting a recovery to above-trend annual GDP growth – faster than 3%. But the first-half growth rate looks set to come in closer to 1.5% at best, even below 2011’s dismal 1.7%. And now, after getting the first half of 2012 wrong, many are repeating the fairy tale that a combination of lower oil prices, rising auto sales, recovering house prices, and a resurgence of US manufacturing will boost growth in the second half of the year and fuel above-potential growth by 2013.

The reality is the opposite: for several reasons, growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013 – close to stall speed.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

The “crash prophet” offers up some good arguments as to why the U.S. economy is slowing, not recovering. You can read the entire piece on the Project Syndicate website here.

Tags: auto sales, deleveraging, government debt, home prices, Nouriel Roubini, oil prices, private sector debt