GDP

Jim Rickards: ‘We’re Going To Go Into A Recession Or The Stock Market Is Going To Have A Very Severe Correction’

Marc Faber isn’t the only “crash prophet” who realizes the financial environment U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could inherit is significantly different than what Ronald Reagan encountered in 1981. Back on December 5 I blogged about James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author, who was on RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) the prior week informing listeners of the following:

Less regulation, lower taxes, and a lot more infrastructure spending. This was Ronald Reagan’s playbook. This is what Ronald Reagan did in 1981 with a lot of success. But there are big differences, reasons to believe Trump will not be as successful. Namely because when Reagan came in, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio- the amount of debt relative to our economy- was 35 percent. Today it’s almost 105 percent. Reagan had inflation of 20 percent. Trump has it close to zero. In other words, Reagan had a lot of tailwinds– inflation had to come down, interest rates had to come down, he had fiscal space to run up the debt. Trump has headwinds

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last Tuesday, Rickards appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one Martin. I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

CNBC anchor Martin Soong asked his guest, “What is it going to take to cause these two outcomes- what’s the trigger going to be?” Rickards replied:

First of all, it’s already happening. There’s basically a head-long collision coming between perception and reality. So what’s the perception? The market’s rising on the Trump reflation trade. So, Trump wants to cut taxes. Steve Bannon’s talking to his advisors about a trillion dollars of infrastructure spending, cutting regulations. So all these things are viewed to be highly stimulative. So that’s why the market’s going up… But with the Fed, they’re thinking of two things. Number one, they believe in the Phillips Curve… With unemployment at 4.6 percent and that kind of stimulus coming, they know monetary policy acts with a lag- they want to get out ahead of inflation. So they’re on track to raise rates. By the way, they want to raise them anyway independent of this because they’ve got to raise them so they can cut them in the next recession. So the Fed’s on track to raise. The market expects stimulus. But here’s the point. The stimulus is not going to come. Congress has already said tax cuts have to be revenue neutral- that’s going to take away the stimulative effect. They’re going to balk at more spending. We have $20 trillion of debt. A 104 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. So we’re not going to get this trillion dollars of spending. And we’re in the eighth year of an expansion Martin. Keynesian stimulus- if it works at all, it works at the beginning of an expansion or in a recession. Not after 8 years. You don’t get much bang for the buck.


“Fed to reverse course by year-end: Expert”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Jim Rickards: Donald Trump Has Ronald Reagan’s Financial Playbook, But Faces ‘Headwinds’

Marc Faber. Peter Schiff. Now Jim Rickards. Three “crash prophets” who aren’t convinced U.S. President-elect Donald Trump can magically solve America’s economic ills. Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author, was on the RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) show Today with Sean O’Rourke last Wednesday talking about his new book when he informed listeners of the following:

Less regulation, lower taxes, and a lot more infrastructure spending. This was Ronald Reagan’s playbook. This is what Ronald Reagan did in 1981 with a lot of success. But there are big differences, reasons to believe Trump will not be as successful. Namely because when Reagan came in, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio- the amount of debt relative to our economy- was 35 percent. Today it’s almost 105 percent. Reagan had inflation of 20 percent. Trump has it close to zero. In other words, Reagan had a lot of tailwinds– inflation had to come down, interest rates had to come down, he had fiscal space to run up the debt. Trump has headwinds

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The editor of the financial newsletter Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence believes the next economic crisis (2018?) will be worse than the 2008 edition. When asked by O’Rourke what people with a “smaller or medium-size financial nest-egg” might do to prepare for it, Rickards advised:

For savers and investors at any level, modest or wealthier, put 10 percent of your investible assets in physical gold or silver. For smaller amounts, silver might do well…

He added some cash is good too.

You can listen to the entire interview (a little over 13 minutes) on the RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Rickards’ new book…

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Donald Trump Inheriting A ‘Poisoned Chalice’?

I’ve had this suspicion for some time now that whoever won the 2016 U.S. presidential election is very likely inheriting a “poisoned chalice.”

When I launched Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street,” on Memorial Day weekend 2007, I started warning readers of a coming U.S. financial collapse.

After moving on to Survival And Prosperity in 2010, I came to believe the economy/larger financial system had already entered a long, drawn-out descent before the eventual crash.

That downward trajectory would be punctuated by crises like what reared its ugly head in the autumn of 2008.

Financial types were quick to label the recession at the end of last decade as the “Great Recession.”

This “nattering nabob of negativity” thinks it’s only a matter of time before a “Greater Recession” strikes, fueled by Washington and the Fed “kicking the can down the road” and having too few bullets left when that “road” inevitably runs out.

President-elect Trump is also aware of the possibility of such economic upheaval.

Bob Woodward and Robert Costa reported on The Washington Post website back on April 2, 2016:

Donald Trump said in an interview that economic conditions are so perilous that the country is headed for a “very massive recession” and that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in the stock market, embracing a distinctly gloomy view of the economy that counters mainstream economic forecasts…

Trump has for months contended that the U.S. economy is in trouble because of what he sees as an overvalued stock market, but his view has grown more pessimistic of late and he is now bearish on investing, to the point of warning Americans against doing so.

“I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble,” Trump said. He made clear that he was not specifying a sector of the economy but the economy at large and asserted that more bullish forecasts were based on skewed employment numbers and an inflated stock market.

“First of all, we’re not at 5 percent unemployment. We’re at a number that’s probably into the twenties if you look at the real number,” Trump said. “That was a number that was devised, statistically devised to make politicians- and, in particular, presidents — look good. And I wouldn’t be getting the kind of massive crowds that I’m getting if the number was a real number.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Yet Trump, as President-elect of the United States, chooses to accept the potential “poisoned chalice,” from which he might be forced to drink from during his tenure in the Oval Office as the current economic expansion grows long in the tooth.

Consider the following from Jeffrey Sparshott in The Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog this morning:

Donald Trump is poised to inherit one of the longest-lived economic expansions since the World War II era. Barring any sudden shock or sudden acceleration, the president-elect will also take office during the weakest

The economy has been growing for more than seven years, ranking the expansion the fourth-longest since 1949 (when quarterly data became available). If economic expansion continues through Mr. Trump’s first term, it will be the longest.

While gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic of output, is advancing, it’s been at the slowest rate on record for an expansion

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’d like to think Donald Trump and the Republicans could turn this ship around and avert economic disaster.

I, for one, would only be too happy to be proven wrong about my prediction of a “Greater Recession” and eventual collapse.

But I fear the damage may already be done.

So much so that the incoming White House might want to level with the American people about what might be in store for them from an economic standpoint.

Otherwise, the public will have less of a fighting chance of weathering the financial storm should it hit.

Not to mention opponents of a Trump administration will try hard to pin the blame on them for a painful event previous administrations played a big part in creating.

One need only look at Illinois where Republican Governor Bruce Rauner (only 22 months in office) is facing the same baseless charges for decades of mismanagement perpetrated by those across the political aisle.

President-elect Trump has his work cut out for him as the economy is concerned. The billionaire businessman seems to be up for the challenge, and America will know soon enough if he can pull off yet another amazing feat.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Costa, Robert and Woodward, Bob. “In a revealing interview, Trump predicts a ‘massive recession’ but intends to eliminate the national debt in 8 years.” The Washington Post. 2 Apr. 2016. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-turmoil-or-triumph-donald-trump-stands-alone/2016/04/02/8c0619b6-f8d6-11e5-a3ce-f06b5ba21f33_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumppresidency-7pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory). 11 Nov. 2016.

Sparshott, Jeffrey. “The U.S. Economy President Donald Trump Will Inherit, in 11 Charts.” Real Time Economics. 11 Nov. 2016. (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/11/11/the-u-s-economy-president-donald-trump-will-inherit-in-11-charts/). 11 Nov. 2016.

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Michael Pento: ‘U.S. Most Likely Entered Into A Recession At The End Of Last Quarter’

Late last night I read some interesting commentary on CNBC.com about the U.S. economy now possibly being in recession. The author of the piece was Michael Pento, who according to the CNBC “Profiles” web page is “the president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies. He also produces the weekly podcast ‘The Mid-week Reality Check’ and is author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse.” Pento wrote Tuesday morning:

While investors have been focused on the perennial failed hope for a second half economic recovery, they have been missing the most salient point: the U.S. most likely entered into a recession at the end of last quarter.

That’s right, when adjusting nominal GDP growth for core consumer price inflation for the average of the past two quarters, the recession is already here. But before we look deeper into this, let’s first look at the following five charts that illustrate the economy has been steadily deteriorating for the past few years and that the pace of decline has recently picked up steam…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

An interesting read and arguments, which you can view in its entirety here on the CNBC website.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Share

Tags: ,

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2016 GDP, Inflation, Recession, Recovery No Comments

Peter Schiff: ‘Silver Might Even Be A Better Buy Than Gold’

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, just published a new entry to his Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast vlog on YouTube.com. From earlier today:

As long as we have the strength of the dollar, we can continue to borrow money to pay for imports. We can continue to go deeper and deeper into debt. But the minute the illusion runs crashing into reality, and people recognize the situation that we’re in. That we didn’t have a legitimate recovery. That we just had a bubble. And rather than higher interest rates and a real recovery, we’re back in recession. And the Fed is going to try its hardest to blow more air into this bubble. It is not going to work. And this collapse in the dollar today is just the beginning. The dollar has a long way to fall. Not only does it have to reverse all its ill-gotten gains, but it has a long way to go beyond that. Because the problems for the dollar, the fundamentals for the dollar, have gotten worse the entire time the dollar was rallying. And it’s this phony rally in the dollar, it’s this false belief in a higher dollar and higher interest rates, that have wreaked havoc with the emerging markets, with emerging market currencies, with commodities. And all of these markets are going to be able to breathe a huge sigh of relief as the Fed backs away from these rate hikes and the dollar begins to tank. But probably the biggest beneficiary of the Fed’s new easing, this new easing cycle that I think is about to begin, is going to be gold. Gold has fallen for the last few years based on this false belief that everything is great, and we’re going to have a return to normalcy, and the Fed is going to shrink its balance sheet. Nothing could be further from the truth. The balance sheet is about to blow up. We’re going to go up to $10 trillion. The national debt just surpassed $19 trillion officially. It’s going to be $20 trillion by the time Barack Obama leaves office- maybe more. He’s doubled the national debt. The next president will have to double it again in order to keep this house of cards from collapsing. I think it’s impossible to finance- that type of growth in debt. But that’s what this bubble economy needs. Because all of our GDP grows based on debt. It’s not real economic growth. It’s just consumption that’s borrowed. And you need to borrow more and more money to get less and less GDP growth. And we’ve run to the point where we can’t do it anymore. The world is not going to continue to give us a pass. And so gold prices, I think, are going to take off. I think the correction from this long-term bull market is over. And I think gold is going to make new highs. And of course if gold is going to make new highs, so is silver. And so silver might even be a better buy than gold because silver corrected a lot more during the correction. And so it has a lot more lost ground to make up for.


“Fed Blinks: Tightening Financial Conditions Will Derail Rate Hike Expectations”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Peter Schiff Predicts ‘A Horrendous Christmas,’ ‘The Dow Is Going To Rally From Here,’ And ‘Gold Stocks Are Going To Take Off’

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff just added a new entry to The Schiff Report YouTube vlog Friday. Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, shared some forecasts with viewers. From the video:

I think that given the lousy jobs number that we just got, given the revision to the previous numbers making them worse, given now today’s factory orders and the economic data that we’re likely to get next week, I think before long- or it’s not going to be too long- before the Atlanta Fed GDP now reflects a negative print, a negative number, for third quarter GDP. Now, if we get a negative number for third quarter GDP, I bet we get another negative number that’s even bigger for the fourth quarter. Because if you look at the trend over the last six years or so, the fourth quarter is always weaker than the third. The third quarter is a stronger quarter. And if that quarter is weak, what does that tell you about the second quarter? It’s going to be even weaker. So if we get a negative third quarter, and then we get a negative fourth quarter, well, that’s a recession. Right? Technically that’s a recession. What the Fed going to do?

This is going to be a horrendous Christmas, that’s my forecast, as far as what the retailers are expecting and what they’re going to get. This is probably going to be the worst Christmas shopping season of the recovery. And I think next year a lot more layoffs are coming…

The Dow was down as much as 250 points or so early in the morning. But then the buyers came in because they realized, “Hey wait a minute! If the Fed isn’t going to raise rates, then this party can continue for a while longer.” And the Dow finished up 200 points. That’s a 450 point move. We were almost down at the Black Monday lows. I think this was a pretty significant reversal. My guess is that the Dow is going to rally from here. I don’t know if it’s going to rally to new highs- that would be a stretch. But I think right now, given the weakness of this report, I think that you can see some strength in the U.S. stock market…

This time, if the dollar rises based on an anticipation of rate hikes, and the hikes don’t even come, can you imagine how much selling there’s going to be on that fact, when you don’t even get the event that everybody’s been waiting for? That’s going to work in reverse for gold. People have been selling gold for the same reason. “Oh, the Fed’s going to raise rates- that’s going to be bad for gold.” You know, when the Fed raised rates last time, it was great for gold, because gold rose the whole time. But imagine how good it’s going to be for gold when everybody expects a rate hike, and instead we get QE 4. I think this is going to be the biggest up-leg of the gold bull market, which means the gold stocks are going to take off if I am right, because gold stocks today are cheaper than they were when the last bull market began when gold was under $300 an ounce. They’re cheaper now with gold at $1,130 than they were when gold was $270…


“Sept. Jobs Report Confirms Weakening Labor Market”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Canada Enters Recession

There had been talk about a Canadian recession for some time now, but now it’s “official.” Tamsin McMahon reported on The Globe and Mail (Canada) website Tuesday:

Canada’s economy shrank for a second straight quarter, the weakest six-month period since the Great Recession, sending the country into a technical recession even as strong growth in June suggests the pain may be short-lived.

Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that the country’s gross domestic product contracted by an annualized rate of 0.5 per cent between April and June, driven by a continuing slump in the oil and gas sector. That followed a 0.8-per-cent drop in the first three months of the year, which Statistics Canada revised downward from 0.6 per cent…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Canada is the United States’ largest trading partner, and it’s economy is closely linked to ours.

Hat tip to Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Emanuella Enenajor for correctly-calling this downturn. From a July 4, 2015, Bloomberg News piece:

Sapped by the oil slide, Canada’s economy appears headed toward recession, economists warn — and one says we’re already there.

Emanuella Enenajor of Bank of America Merrill Lynch says the Canadian economy appears to have shrunk by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter after a drop of the same amount in the first, “suggesting a recession.”

Enenajor also predicts the Canadian dollar will tumble to under 77 cents U.S. by the end of the year.

Other analysts are being more cautious…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The Globe and Mail reported the Canadian dollar ended Tuesday down 38 cents to 75.63 cents (U.S.).

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

McMahon, Tamsin. “Economy enters technical recession despite strong figures in June.” The Globe and Mail. 1 Sep. 2015. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/growth/canadas-economy-shrinks/article26172722/). 1 Sep. 2015.

“Canada in recession, heading to sub-77¢ dollar: analyst.” Bloomberg News. 4 July 2015. (http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/canada-in-recession-heading-to-70%C2%A2-dollar-analyst). 1 Sep. 2015.

Share

Tags: , ,

Tuesday, September 1st, 2015 Currencies, GDP, North America, Recession 2 Comments
Survival And Prosperity
Est. 2010, Chicagoland, USA
Christopher E. Hill, Editor

Successor to Boom2Bust.com
"The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street"
(Memorial Day Weekend 2007-2010)

PLEASE RATE this blog HERE,
and PLEASE VOTE for the blog below:



Thank you very, very much!
Advertising Disclosure here.
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Emergency Foods Local vendor (Forest Park, IL). Review coming soon.
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Legacy Food Storage Review coming soon
ANY CHARACTER HERE
MyPatriotSupply.com reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Buy Gold And Silver Coins BGASC reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
BulletSafe reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
BullionVault BullionVault.com reviewed HERE
This project dedicated to St. Jude
Patron Saint of Desperate Situations

Categories

 

Archives