Government

IMF Issues Downward Revision To Global Growth Forecast

From the International Monetary Fund website Tuesday:

Global growth continues, but at a sluggish pace that leaves the world economy more exposed to risks, says the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The WEO forecasts global growth at 3.2 percent in 2016 and 3.5 percent in 2017, a downward revision of 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, compared with the January 2016 Update (see table).

In a recent speech, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned that the recovery remains too slow, too fragile, with the risk that persistent low growth can have damaging effects on the social and political fabric of many countries…

“The recovery remains too slow, too fragile”

Funny. That’s not what I’m hearing out of Washington and the mainstream media these days.

The IMF added:

In the United States, expected growth this year is flat at 2.4 percent, with a modest uptick in 2017. Domestic demand will be supported by improving government finances and a stronger housing market that help offset the drag on net exports coming from a strong dollar and weaker manufacturing…

You can read more about the IMF’s latest global growth forecast here on their website.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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DHS, FBI Launches Nationwide Program Warning Electric Companies About Cyber Attacks

While most of Main Street might not have a clue about the threat to the nation’s power grid from cyber attacks, it sounds like the Feds may be starting to take it seriously. Bill Gertz reported over on The Washington Free Beacon website last Friday:

Three months after a Department of Homeland Security intelligence report downplayed the threat of a cyber attack against the U.S. electrical grid, DHS and the FBI began a nationwide program warning of the dangers faced by U.S. utilities from damaging cyber attacks like the recent hacking against Ukraine’s power grid.

The nationwide campaign by DHS and the FBI began March 31 and includes 12 briefings and online webinars for electrical power infrastructure companies and others involved in security, with sessions in eight U.S. cities, including a session next week in Washington.

The unclassified briefings are titled “Ukraine Cyber Attack: Implications for U.S. Stakeholders,” and are based on work with the Ukrainian government in the aftermath of the Dec. 23 cyber attack against the Ukrainian power infrastructure…

The briefings will outline the details of the attacks, the techniques used by the hackers, and strategies to be used to limit risks and improve cyber security for grid organizations…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Those who have been sounding the alarm over the cyber attack threat for some time now have found a high-profile ally in American broadcast journalist Ted Koppel. Graham Vyse reported on the website of InsideSources, a non-partisan news organization, back on March 19:

On Monday, ABC News legend Ted Koppel sat down at a conference table at the National Press Foundation in Washington, accepted the mug of coffee he was offered and proceeded to describe a national security threat greater than 9/11.

The longtime “Nightline” anchor told reporters about the danger of a cyber attack on the United States power grid — an unprecedented event that could mean months of blackouts affecting tens of millions.

Koppel sees this scenario as a likelihood, not just a possibility, for which the country is woefully unprepared. He worries it would reduce America to a kind of Hobbesian state of nature, with conflicts over food, water and other dwindling necessities. It’s all the subject of his latest book, “Lights Out.”

“What happened on 9/11 is nothing compared to what a cyber attack on the power grid would do,” Koppel said…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Vyse added:

Koppel doesn’t think America can actually prevent a cyber attack, so he argues the focus should be on minimizing damage. The trouble is, he’s doubtful Congress would respond well to a request for $100 billion to buy enough freeze-dried meals to avoid food riots

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“The trouble is, he’s doubtful Congress would respond well to a request for $100 billion to buy enough freeze-dried meals to avoid food riots”

Yikes.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Gertz, Bill. “FBI Warns of Cyber Threat to Electric Grid.” The Washington Free Beacon. 8 Apr. 2016. (http://freebeacon.com/issues/fbi-warns-cyber-threat-electric-grid/). 12 Apr. 2016.

Vyse, Graham. “Ted Koppel: Homeland Security Chief ‘Ignorant’ on Threat to Grid.” InsideSources. 19 Mar. 2016. (http://www.insidesources.com/koppel-homeland/). 12 Apr. 2016.

Ted Koppel’s power grid cyber attack book…

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James Rickards: Gold Other Money That Renders Central Bank Power ‘Meaningless’

The “Quote For The Week” runner-up. From American investment banker, risk manager, attorney, and financial commentator James Rickards, in a recent interview with Schiff Gold’s Albert K. Lu:

I actually think of gold as money. Money is different from an investment or a commodity, so, is gold a commodity? Is it an investment? Is it money? Well, it depends a little bit. Like a chameleon, it changes color. I think of it as money. But I think that’s why there is such bitter opposition, and so many really canards and made-up stories, anti-gold. These come from the PhDs. Whoever controls money controls the world. You control wealth, you control politics; you control who wins and who loses. It’s a very powerful thing to control.

Who controls money today? The answer is the central banks, and those are all PhDs, they come from MIT, Harvard, Chicago, Stanford, just a really small number of universities. They all know each other. It’s a club. Well, if you were in this PhD club that controls the central banks, you wouldn’t want people to even think about gold. You wouldn’t want them to talk about gold, because gold is the competition. Gold is the other money that can render their power meaningless. And so they perpetuate these myths about gold. Unfortunately, a lot of students, a lot of journalists, a lot of everyday citizens follow the leader, follow these PhDs without ever examining the assumptions…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on information found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. Christopher E. Hill, the creator/Editor of this blog, is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented on the site.)

Rickard’s new book…

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Jim Rogers: ‘We’re Certainly Going To Have Worse Times Than We’ve Had In Our Lifetime’

Let’s talk finance and investing for the remainder of the day. Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers recently made an appearance on GoldSeek.com Radio, and in the April 1, 2016, broadcast, the former investing partner of George Soros talked about several topics including a coming U.S. financial crash, where he’s putting his money these days, and the prospect of another buying opportunity with gold. On a coming crash, from the exchange with host Chris Waltzek:

WALTZEK: You know you’ve mentioned that this could be the “last rally.” I put that in quotes and we’re seeing again signs of that. But these price-to-earnings ratios, the CAPE ratios, some of our individual stocks 300, 500-priced-to- earnings. I mean, they’re priced to perfection for eternity. Could this lead to maybe a 1929-style scenario, or are we in worse or more dangerous water?
ROGERS: Chris, we’re certainly going to have worse times than we’ve had in our lifetimes. How bad it is? I expect it to be, well to repeat, worse than anything we’ve had in our lifetime, because the debt is like nothing it’s ever been in recorded history. America is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Higher and higher. But so does everybody else’s debt. So the next time around- yes, it’s going to be very, very disastrous. The only hope Chris is that somehow the world survives the next time around. Well we won’t survive the one after that, I assure you, because the debt will be so much higher, money printing will be so much worse. We’re going to live in very interesting times, which as you know, a Chinese curse to live in interesting times.

Regarding where the Singapore-based investor is putting his money:

WALTZEK: So give us an idea then where those funds of yours are headed and where you feel safe right now.
ROGERS: I own a lot of U.S. dollars, not because it’s going to be a horrible currency in the end, but with the bad times coming many people will put their money in what they consider safe assets or safe havens, and many people think the U.S. dollar is a safe haven. Compared to the rest of the world- yeah, it is a safe haven compared to the yen or the euro or other currencies. So I own U.S. dollars. I own Chinese renminbi. I own Chinese shares. I’m short in the U.S. I’m long agriculture. I bought recently some Russian government short-term bonds in rubles. I own some gold and silver which I have for years- I haven’t bought any recently. Some stocks that I’ve owned for twenty or thirty years- I don’t see any reason to sell them since I bought them so long ago. That’s basically, off the top of my head, where my investments are.

On the prospect of another buying opportunity in gold, Rogers said:

I’m not rushing in to buy. I still expect a better opportunity to buy gold sometime in the next two or three years. If that happens, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more. If it doesn’t happen, I own some gold, so I’ll make money. But I’m still waiting for my… another opportunity.

The CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. shared with listeners:

There are other places I’m looking at but I’m really not very active at all. I’m mainly just watching the world unfold. Be knowledgeable, be worried, and be prepared.

“Be knowledgeable, be worried, and be prepared.” Wise words to digest.


“GSR interviews JIM ROGERS – March 31, 2016 Nugget”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Martin Armstrong Warns Illinois ‘Taxpayers Are Absolutely Screwed And This Is Not A Place You Want To Own Property’

Speaking of Martin Armstrong, I was reading the economist’s blog early Wednesday morning when I came across the following in his April 4 post entitled “Illinois on the Brink of Bankruptcy”:

The pension crisis is brewing and the one state that appears to be heading toward a complete bankruptcy is Illinois. Clients should not own ANY debt from Illinois, be it city, municipal, or state. Just get out before the curtain falls. The Illinois Constitution plainly states that pension benefits, once granted, “shall not be diminished or impaired.” Thus, taxpayers are absolutely screwed and this is not a place you want to own property

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Taxpayers are absolutely screwed and this is not a place you want to own property”

“Just get out before the curtain falls”

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know this has been a major concern of mine for a couple of years now. I blogged back on November 9, 2012:

Events that have unfolded at the local level on up for some time now have convinced me that my future lies outside of Chicago, Cook County, and Illinois. Which is a shame, because as I’ve mentioned before, my family has deep ties to the area. So much so a number of family members are familiar with the tale of one ancestor who fought courageously to save his tailor shop (at least the contents of it) from the approaching flames of the Great Chicago Fire back in 1871.

141 years later, another looming disaster looks to be in store for me and my loved ones if I don’t take action, and soon.

It’s bad enough Chicago, Cook County, and Illinois was already overrun by too many residents that live their lives in pursuit of the Ubi East Mea (“Where’s Mine?”) mentality and politicians who have been quick to pander to these individuals with “free” things in exchange for votes- long before last Tuesday’s election results revealed the rest of America is now marching down this same path.

But combine this with poor financial health, a bleak economic outlook, and growing attacks on the finances and freedoms of productive, law-abiding residents as politicians rob Peter to pay Paul in their attempt to remain in office- and you’ve got one hell of a mess coming to this area of the Midwest in the next few years.

Eventually, I predict the productive residents will split town (this happened before in Chicago in the late 60s-early 70s in some neighborhoods), there will be no more money for “freebies,” and the “Where’s Mine?” brigade will riot. Athens-style.

As I’ve been telling those close to me for some time now, “First you’ll see the strikes. Then the larger protests. Until finally, the riots.”

History shows you don’t want to be in the city when the riots break out.

And I don’t plan on being here in Chicago when the coming civil strife erupts either.

I split town several months after writing all that.

You can read Armstrong’s entire blog post on his company’s website here. Disturbing stuff for citizens of “Madiganistan.”

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Follow-Up: Martin Armstrong’s Quote For The Week

Before I really get going for the week on Survival And Prosperity, after I published the “Quote For The Week” Monday- the one from economist Martin Armstrong about a “lack of recent reports of UFO sightings or abduction” in this goofy election year- I couldn’t help but remember my 1992-93 winter break from college where I invited a bunch of buddies up to my family’s cabin in Wisconsin. As the host, I got to pick the VHS movies to watch, with one of them being the 1988 John Carpenter sci-fi film They Live starring the late “Rowdy” Roddy Piper of pro wrestling fame. From Melissa Portell on the IMDB website:

Nada, a down-on-his-luck construction worker, discovers a pair of special sunglasses. Wearing them, he is able to see the world as it really is: people being bombarded by media and government with messages like “Stay Asleep”, “No Imagination”, “Submit to Authority”. Even scarier is that he is able to see that some usually normal-looking people are in fact ugly aliens in charge of the massive campaign to keep humans subdued.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

My friends had never heard of the flick. But I had already seen it. And the one part of the movie that really stood out for me (and which I thought my buddies would appreciate) was the fight scene where Piper (Nada) tries to get actor Keith David to wear the “special” sunglasses:


“They Live (2/4) They Live Fight Scene – FULL (Explicit Language) (1988)”
YouTube Video

In my opinion, one of the best fight sequences ever to grace the “Silver Screen.” And my guests wholeheartedly agreed as well.

In 1992, the message that movie conveyed was somewhat lost on us meathead college boys (the beer certainly didn’t help either).

Some twenty-three years later, sans the alien bit, I can’t help but be a little creeped out by the resemblance between America of 2016 and Carpenter’s nightmarish setting:

The world as it really is: people being bombarded by media and government with messages like “Stay Asleep”, “No Imagination”, “Submit to Authority”…


“Newscasters Agree: A Christmas Present Or Two Or Ten Edition”
YouTube Video

Funny?

I don’t know about you, but that segment really started getting disturbing for me around the minute mark.

Live long and prosper… if you can.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Quote For The Week

“One sure sign that things are getting crazy as we approach 2017, the Year from Political Hell, is that there are no recent reports of UFO sightings or abductions. Either the aliens left and said, “You people are crazy!” or perhaps the aliens replaced our leaders with those intent on destroying the society that they grew in pods. Either way, the future is looking really just off the wall to the point that even the UFOs have left town (lol).”

-Martin Armstrong (economist at Armstrong Economics and subject of the 2014 documentary The Forecaster, in a March 30 blog post on his company’s website

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Rich Dad Author Robert Kiyosaki: 2016 Market Meltdown ‘Right On Schedule’

The last time I blogged about Robert Kiyosaki, the American entrepreneur, educator, investor, and author of The New York Times best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad talked about precious metals in a January 27, 2016, GoldSeek.com Radio interview. From his exchange with host Chris Waltzek:

WALTZEK: People taking a longer-term perspective, picking up some precious metals. You get that diversification. You can sleep a little more soundly at night. And you also know that you’re getting silver at 66 percent off, gold 40-45 percent off the highs. So where’s the risk there?
KIYOSAKI: The risk is not having it. And that’s why I’m laughing about Saturday Night Live and I can’t tell Fox from Saturday Night Live because those guys are a bunch of cartoons up there now. And those are the guys you’re going to count on for your economy? Give me a break. I mean, right now I trust in gold and I trust in silver. I don’t trust the stock market. I don’t trust the Fed. I don’t trust our leaders. I don’t trust the EU to not come apart. You have Puerto Rico in serious trouble. I mean how many other things have you got out there? And you look at the national debt- it’s now $20 trillion. If you want to believe Saturday Night Live characters then you just keep believing. But I’d rather have gold and silver.

The author of the recently-released Second Chance: for Your Money, Your Life and Our World also informed listeners he got out of stocks “fully” last March.

Last week, I spotted a piece about Kiyosaki on MarketWatch.com. Barbara Kollmeyer reported on March 23:

Fourteen years ago, the author of a series of popular personal-finance books predicted that 2016 would bring about the worst market crash in history, damaging the financial dreams of millions of baby boomers just as they started to depend on that money to fund retirement.

Broader U.S. stock markets are recovering from the worst 10-day start to a year on record. But Robert Kiyosaki- who made that 2016 forecast in the 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy” – says the meltdown is under way, and there’s little investors can do but buy gold or silver and hope the Federal Reserve slows the slide.

Kiyosaki is convinced: The pullback he predicted is happening.

“We’re right on schedule,” he said in a recent interview with MarketWatch…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Kollmeyer added later:

Kiyosaki told MarketWatch that the combination of demographics and global economic weakness makes the next crash inevitable — but the Fed could stave it off with another round of quantitative easing, which might stimulate the economy…

“The big question [whether] we do ‘QE4,’” said Kiyosaki. “If we do, the stock market will come roaring back, but it’s not rocket science. If we stop printing money, it crashes; if we print money, it goes up. But, eventually, it’s all going to come down.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

To combat the crash, Kiyoski still places his trust in gold and silver, among other things. From the piece:

He thinks investors should own some gold or silver, based on the view that central banks will just have to print money to get out of the next crisis and precious metals are often deployed as a perceived hedge against inflation. Some investors, meanwhile, might look for investments geared toward income, such as rent payments or dividends, rather than appreciation.

“If you know what you’re doing and are investing for cash flow, baby boomers — or any investors — may see some gains,” he said. “But for those whose wealth is tied up in the [equity] markets, it’s more like gambling than investing.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

An excellent interview of Kiyosaki by MarketWatch, which you can read in its entirety over on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Quote For The Week

“The *establishment* composed of journos, BS-Vending talking heads with well-formulated verbs, bureaucrato-cronies, lobbyists-in training, New Yorker-reading semi-intellectuals, image-conscious empty suits, Washington rent-seekers and other ‘well thinking’ members of the vocal elites are not getting the point about what is happening and the sterility of their arguments. People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally, to destroy the establishment.”

-March 7, 2016, Facebook post of Lebanese-American essayist, scholar, statistician, former trader, and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whose seminal work The Black Swan helped inspire me to start warning others circa Memorial Day Weekend 2007 about coming economic upheaval and eventually a U.S. financial crash

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Quote For The Week

“The question we now have to ask is if technologically it is possible to make an impenetrable device or system where the encryption is so strong that there is no key. There is no door at all. Then how do we apprehend the child pornographer? How do we solve or disrupt a terrorist plot? What mechanisms do we have available to even do simple things like tax enforcement? Because, if in fact you can’t crack that at all- government can’t get in- then everybody is walking around with a Swiss bank account in their pocket…”

-U.S. President Barack Obama, speaking at the South by Southwest (SXSW) festival on March 11, 2016

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Survival And Prosperity
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Christopher E. Hill, Editor

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