Investing

Jim Rogers: Gold May Drop To Around $1,000 Before Rebounding

According to a report out of Taiwan, well-known investor Jim Rogers suspects the price of gold ($1,199 an ounce as I type this) may be heading lower. The Singapore-based investor was giving a media interview in Beijing recently and shared his outlook- and investing strategy- for the precious metal. From the Want China Times website (English news site of Taiwan-based China Times News Group) yesterday:

Rogers predicted gold may drop to around US$1,000 per once and then rebound to up to US$1,500 per ounce. He will increase his gold assets when the price reaches US$1,000, he said.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Rogers, who predicted the commodities rally that began in 1999, often talks about gold. Back in November of last year, the chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests provided the following in an interview with Burbank, California-based Birch Gold Group (blogged about here):

Well, everybody should own some precious metals as an insurance policy. So if they don’t have any right now, I would urge them to go buy something, buy themselves a gold coin if nothing else, and see that it’s not going to hurt. It won’t hurt you to buy the first gold coin, the first silver coin, and from that you start accumulating as your own situation dictates.

First, do your homework, don’t buy gold because you heard me say it or even because you hear you say it. But if people don’t own they should start after they have done their homework. And then they will probably, if they do their homework, most people will then realize, “Oh my gosh, I better have insurance, and gold and silver may get me through serious problems ahead.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

“One reminbi to one US dollar in 25 years: Jim Rogers.” Want China Times. 25 Nov. 2014. (http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20141125000058&cid=1203). 26 Nov. 2014.

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Jim Rogers Details Russian Investments, Shares Outlook For Developed Economies

While searching for the latest activity from the “crash prophets” this morning I came across an insightful piece on well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers on FT Alphaville. Izabella Kaminska reported on the Financial Times (UK) daily news and commentary blog today:

Rogers’ Russian investments now include stakes in fertiliser maker Phosagro, airliner Aeroflot, a Russia ETF and the Russian stock exchange, but he said was looking to expand into different sectors as well…

Rogers’ bullish view on Russia contrasts significantly with his outlook for Europe, Japan and the United States. Regarding Japan, Rogers proposed that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was doing “terrible things” to Japan and advised young Japanese to leave the country as soon as they possibly could to avoid losses. However, in the short-term, he believed there were also opportunities in the stock market as a result of the extraordinary central bank action.

Regarding the Eurozone, Rogers said he didn’t own any euros, nor did he want to because he would rather buy Russia.

As ever, his outlook for developed economies remained bleak on the basis that central banks had debased the currency and that government statistics were lying about the true state of inflation in the land…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

It should come as no surprise to regular readers of Survival And Prosperity that the former investing partner of George Soros has been investing in Russia (blogged about in May here).

Rogers shared with the Financial Times his reasons for selecting the above Russian investments. Good stuff by Kaminska and FT Alphaville, which you can read in its entirety here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: Gold Will ‘Take A Rocket Ship Back Up’ And Eclipse $5,000

Kitco News anchor Daniela Cambone got the chance to speak to Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff on November 18. The “crash prophet” who correctly-predicted the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis was at the Grand Cayman Liberty Forum, and here’s what the long-time gold bull had to say about the precious metal. From their exchange:

CAMBONE: So let’s tie this back into gold now. What’s your outlook for the metal? I know you’ve been bullish on the metal. Do you continue to be?
SCHIFF: Yes. I’m bullish. You know, it’s hard to call the short term obviously and people now are trying to say, “Oh Peter, you know, you were saying gold was going to go to $5,000.” It’s going to go to $5,000. And in fact, I looked at some of my CNBC interviews and I was predicting $5,000 when gold was $500. So, it’s not like I just started doing it when it was at $900. Right? I’ve had that target on my mind for some time. And I think we’re going to eclipse it. And I think when this decline is over-and it’s been 2 or 3 years since gold hit its high around $1,900- I think it’s going to rise faster than before. Normally markets go down- they take the stairs up and the elevator down. Well I think that gold is going to take a rocket ship back up, because I think when all the people who have been shorting gold and selling gold realize that they’ve got it wrong, and they want to buy it back- it’s just not there. Because I think the real gold- all the gold that was dumped out of ETFs- I think it’s sitting in vaults in Russia and China, and it’s never going to see the light of day again. So when the buyers want it back, it’s not going to be there…

Schiff proclaimed later:

This is the best fundamental environment I’ve ever seen for gold. And also, I do believe that the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are numbered, and when the dollar is no longer accepted as the reserve currency, what’s going to take its place? It’s not going to be the euro. It’s not going to be the yen. I think it’s going to be gold. I think the world is going to go back to gold…


“Gold Will Take Rocket Ship Back Up – Peter Schiff | Kitco News”
Gold discussion starts at 3:44
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jeremy Grantham: Fed Will Engineer Another Stock Bubble, Crash

Today I spent my lunch reading the latest quarterly letter from British-born investment strategist Jeremy Grantham. Last time around, the founder and former chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO)- which oversees $120 billion in client assets as of September 30- was predicting a bubble in the U.S. stock market. From “Summer Essays”:

My recent forecast of a fully-fledged bubble, our definition of which requires at least 2250 on the S&P, remains in effect.

As the S&P 500 sits at 2,051 as I type this (199 points below that bubble benchmark), Grantham- whose individual clients have included current Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney- still thinks U.S. equities are headed for bubble territory- before crashing. From his aptly-named “Bubble Watch Update”:

I am still a believer that the Fed will engineer a fully-fledged bubble (S&P 500 over 2250) before a very serious decline…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

For those looking to put their money to work, Grantham lamented:

It is a particularly tough process today with nowhere to hide and no very good investments compared to, say, the time around the 2000 bubble when there were several…

Nevertheless, he offered:

An example of a portfolio that might be used in a world that excludes private equity and venture capital, and for a client who can do without a benchmark and can settle for owning a (hopefully) sensible long-term efficient portfolio. Efficient, that is, in terms of trying to minimize risk per unit of estimated returns…

This example portfolio was comprised of Equities (39%), Fixed Income (30%), Cash/Cash Plus (17%), and Alternative Strategies (14%).

Grantham concluded the essay with more talk about that U.S. stock bubble and crash. He penned:

My personal fond hope and expectation is still for a market that runs deep into bubble territory (which starts, as mentioned earlier, at 2250 on the S&P 500 on our data) before crashing as it always does. Hopefully by then, but depending on what the rest of the world’s equities do, our holdings of global equities will be down to 20% or less. Usually the bubble excitement – which seems inevitably to be led by U.S. markets – starts about now, entering the sweet spot of the Presidential Cycle’s year three, but occasionally, as you have probably discovered the hard way already, history can be a snare and not a help.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Jeremy Grantham’s made some great investment calls (hence Cheney and Kerry being clients), so his prediction about U.S. stocks having quite a bit more room to run shouldn’t be so easily dismissed.

You can read the entire quarterly letter (.pdf file) on the GMO website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff And Axel Merk Talk Gold

I’ve been so busy lately I didn’t realize Peter Schiff’s Euro Pacific Precious Metals had been rebranded as SchiffGold. And earlier today, I spotted a new Gold Videocast published on SchiffGold.com in which Axel Merk is interviewed. The topic? Gold. From the website:

In this SchiffGold exclusive video, Peter Schiff sits with Axel Merk at the recent New Orleans Investment Conference to discuss gold investing in the midst of the currency wars. Like Peter, Axel was one of the few analysts to warn of the 2008 financial crisis and he remains one of the few analysts independent from the mainstream “recovery” consensus. Their conversation covers the history of gold’s price performance, the upcoming Swiss Gold referendum, the role of physical bullion in a portfolio, and much more.

I found their discussion about gold’s victorious outcome in a currency war and ownership of physical gold particularly interesting. Especially when Peter noted:

It’s not that people want to do something illegal but people fear that the government may do something illegal in the future, may do something oppressive in the future. They might want to confiscate gold but they can’t confiscate it if they don’t know where you have it. If you have it in a brokerage account, they know where it is and they can take it. But if you have it buried somewhere or in a safe, they can’t get at it.

Good stuff, which you can read (full transcript provided) and watch in its entirety on the SchiffGold website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers: ‘World Is Starting To Realize It Must Move Away From The U.S. Dollar’

Well-known investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers appeared on global news network RT (Russia Today) yesterday where he spoke with anchor Kevin Owen about the state of the U.S. dollar. Rogers warned:

The dollar is a seriously-flawed currency. And people need something else to use. And whether it’s the ruble or the renminbi or what- I don’t know- I suspect it will be the renminbi, but the world is starting to realize it must move away from the U.S. dollar.

Owen asked the former investing partner of George Soros if we are any closer to a time when the dollar won’t be used as a reserve currency. To which Rogers replied:

Not this year. Not next year. But certainly by the end of this decade you’re going to see many people use other things. Kevin, people have already started. 15 years ago, the U.S. dollar was 70 percent of people’s reserve currencies. Now it’s down to 62 percent. People are already moving away. Slowly, but they are moving.

The Singapore-based investor who predicted the commodities boom that began in 1999 also confided with viewers:

I bought rubles on Friday.


“Jim Rogers: By the end of this decade US dollar will lose world dominance”
YouTube Video

Despite the above warning, Rogers shared with Reuters back on October 23 that he still owned the U.S. dollar. He explained:

I have no confidence in the long-term strength of the U.S. dollar. I only own it because I expect all this turmoil to happen. And in times of turmoil, people flee to the safe-haven of the U.S. dollar. It’s not a safe-haven, but they think it’s a safe-haven, so people will own it. That’s why I own it.

Now what I expect to happen is, the dollar will go up stronger and stronger over the next year or two, at which point- some point- I’ll have to sell it. I have no idea what I’ll do with my money then because the world has got this terrible, terrible unsound foundation in all assets.


“Why Jim Rogers owns dollars printed by ‘crazy’ Fed bankers”
Reuters Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Tuesday, November 11th, 2014 Asia, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Europe, Investing No Comments

Marc Faber Declares ‘I Want To Own Some Gold Because I Don’t Trust The Financial System Anymore’

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the Bloomberg Television show Street Smart last week. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked with host Trish Regan about a number of financial topics, including gold. From their exchange:

REGAN: I know you have been bullish on gold for pretty much forever, Marc. But now we’re in a situation where gold is at a 4-year low. Goldman now predicting $1,050 an ounce. SocGen saying 1,000 bucks. Where do you see gold finishing the year?
FABER: I would say Goldman Sachs is very good at predicting lower prices when they want to buy something. But that aside, I would say, yes- we are down from $1,900 to $1,160 or something like this, and it’s been a miserable performance since 2011. However, from the ’99 lows we’re still up more than four times. So, I just looked at performance tables over 10 years and 15 years- gold hasn’t done that badly. Has done actually better than stocks. Now I personally, I think that we may still go lower- it’s possible, I’m not a prophet. But I’m telling you- I want to own some gold because I don’t trust the financial system anymore. I think the whole thing is going to collapse one day. And then I’ll be happy to have some assets. But of course the custody is important. I wouldn’t hold my gold at the Federal Reserve because they will lend it out. I wouldn’t hold my gold in the U.S. at all.


“More Americans ‘Can’t Afford’ to Buy Homes, Faber Says”
(Gold discussion begins at 7:30)
Bloomberg Television Video

This isn’t the first time Dr. Faber has warned about storing gold in the United States. He told CNBC’s Amanda Drury on August 16, 2013:

I have a preference for physical gold held in a safe deposit box outside the United States and preferably in Asia, for a variety of reasons.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Warns Of Coming Recession, QE 4

It’s been pretty busy around here as I play catch-up on my different Internet projects. But I did get the chance last night to view the latest entry on “crash prophet” Peter Schiff’s The Schiff Report YouTube.com video blog. What is the CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital predicting these days? Another U.S. recession and QE 4. Schiff warned:

When this illusion collapses, this fantasy of a U.S. economic recovery- because everybody believes there’s no recession anywhere in sight, that we’re years away from a U.S. recession- when in fact, another recession is right around the corner. And in fact, it will be worse than the recession that we had in 2008, 2009, if the Fed does not come in with QE 4…

I expect Janet Yellen to react to this coming recession the way Ben Bernanke reacted to the last one. The way Alan Greenspan reacted to the last one. Because that’s the only playbook we’ve got. And remember, when this recession starts, they can’t start with rate cuts. Rates are at zero. You can’t cut from zero. All they can do is revamp QE. And believe me, it’s going to have to be a lot bigger than QE 3. QE 4 is going to have to be bigger than QE 3 for the same reason QE 3 had to be bigger than QE 2- the economy builds up a tolerance. The more addicted to QE, the more QE you need to get any kind of result. And this last result was minimal in the real economy. I mean, yes- the Fed was able to get the stock market to go up, but the real economy never experienced any real economic growth. The average American is worse off today than when QE began. By far. Incomes are down. Real employment is down. Net worth is down. Poverty is up. Government dependency is up. The cost of living is up. Nothing has improved, except maybe the level of optimism on Wall Street…

This crisis is not really going to be about a credit crisis. Not private credit. It’s going to be about debt. Sovereign credit. It’s going to be about the dollar. A currency crisis. A sovereign crisis. Which is going to be very different than the crisis we had in 2008. It’s a crisis of an excess of QE. Of an overdose of QE. That’s the one that’s coming. That’s the one that we have to prepare for. That’s the one that I have been warning about since the beginning…


“The Scary Truth Behind the Halloween Rally”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Marc Faber, Peter Schiff Issue Another Bubble Warning

“I think we are in a gigantic financial asset bubble.”

-Marc Faber on Bloomberg Television’s Street Smart, January 14, 2014

“We have an entire economy that is supported on a foundation of bubbles.”

-Peter Schiff in a MoneyShow Las Vegas presentation, May 12, 2014

These days, the U.S. economic landscape feels a lot like 2007- if you ask me. There’s a tremendous amount of bullish sentiment out there from rising asset prices. Likewise, a number of threats are simmering in the economy and larger financial system- as was the situation seven years ago.

And just like in 2007, “crash prophets” Marc Faber and Peter Schiff are again sounding the alarm on asset bubbles.

Remember- while most other financial types were predicting clear sailing ahead back then for the U.S. economy and housing market, Faber and Schiff correctly-forecast the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and the financial crisis that reared its ugly head by the autumn of 2008.

Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, wrote the following on his company’s website Wednesday:

The truth is the Fed knows the economy needs zero percent rates to stay afloat, which is why they have yet to pull the trigger. The last serious Fed campaign to raise interest rates led to the bursting of the housing bubble in 2006 and the financial crisis that followed in 2008. This occurred despite the slow and predictable manner in which the rates were raised, by 25 basis points every six weeks for two years (a kind of reverse tapering). At the time, Greenspan knew that the housing market and the economy had become dependent on low interest rates, and he did not want to deliver a shock to fragile markets with an abrupt normalization. But his measured and gradual approach only added more air to the real estate bubble, producing an even greater crisis than what might have occurred had he tightened more quickly.

The Fed is making an even graver mistake now if it thinks the economy can handle a measured reduction in QE. Similar to Greenspan, Bernanke understood that asset prices and the economy had become dependent on QE, and he hoped that by slowly tapering QE the economy and the markets could withstand the transition. But I believe these bets will lose just as big as Greenspan’s. The end of QE will prick the current bubbles in stocks, real estate, and bonds, just as higher rates pricked the housing bubble in 2006. And as was the case with the measured rate hikes, the tapering process will only add to the severity of the inevitable bust

According to “Doctor Doom” Marc Faber, the extent of the bubbles goes even further than what Schiff identified. Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box earlier today, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report warned viewers:

Today, the good news is we have a bubble in everything, everywhere- with very few exceptions. And, eventually, there will be a problem when these asset markets begin to perform poorly. The question is- what will be the catalyst? It could be a rise in interest rates not engineered by the Fed, because I think they’ll keep interests rates at zero on the Fed funds rate for a very long time… We could have essentially a break in bond markets at some point. We also could have a strong dollar. A strong dollar has already happened in the last two months signifies that international liquidity is tightening. And when that happens, usually it’s not very good for asset markets.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Schiff, Peter. “A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal.” Euro Pacific Capital. 17 Sep. 2014. (http://www.europac.net/commentaries/new_fed_playbook_new_normal). 19 Sep. 2014.

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Jim Rogers: North Korea Now Where China Was In 1980

While at my parents’ place last weekend, I happened to catch the FOX News show Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo. Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers was on, and what he said about a particular East Asia country was so much different than the picture that’s being painted of them in the mainstream media. From a transcript of the exchange between Bartiromo and Rogers:

BARTIROMO: Jim, you just returned from North Korea.
ROGERS: Yes.
BARTIROMO: And you say that North Korea is now where China was in 1980. Washington has yet another country completely wrong.
ROGERS: Absolutely. It’s where Myanmar was in 2010. Washington has this as wrong as they have the Middle East. Listen, North Korea is changing very, very dramatically. Very fast. And it’s very exciting…
(CROSSTALK)
BARTIROMO: What about Americans being held there hostage?
ROGERS: Yes, listen, if somebody comes into my country and tears up his visa and says, I want asylum, maybe he’s a little nuts. I don’t know the guy, I don’t know what he did. But I know what we read in the press — the Western press, it sounds very, very strange.
Many Americans — by the way, many Americans go there. Not all — I went there. I’m not in jail.
BARTIROMO: When you were there, was it completely dark?
ROGERS: What?
BARTIROMO: Were the lights on when you were in North Korea?
ROGERS: Yes, there were there lights on. People were in the markets buying and selling food. All this stuff about starving North Koreans, I didn’t see any of them. There were markets everywhere, all sorts of goods. I didn’t even understand what some of the goods were, they were so modern.
YORK: Was what you were allowed to see controlled by anyone?
ROGERS: No. I went into the market, the market with thousands of people, thousands of North Koreans buying and selling day in and day out.

The former investing partner of George Soros touched on other subjects as well, including the American response to the Islamic State and the 2016 U.S. presidential election, which you can read about in that transcript on the FOX News website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Bullish On Foreign Stocks, Gold, And Silver

Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff appeared on the FOX Business show Countdown to the Closing Bell last Wednesday. Host Liz Claman asked Schiff, who correctly-predicted the housing market crash and 2008 economic crisis, about where he was investing these days. He replied:

Well, my strategy has been the same for quite some time because I understand the problems that underlie the U.S. economy, how the Federal Reserve is exacerbating them in the name of trying to solve them, and so I want to invest abroad. We still favor equities, but I look at international equities. I look at value. I look at good dividends. And I want to own companies that are not dependent on the consumer…

A map was subsequently displayed that showed “Peter’s Global Area Picks”- Australia, Chile, China, Denmark, Hong Kong, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Singapore, and Sweden.

Claman also brought up precious metals in the discussion. Particularly, silver. From their exchange:

CLAMAN: Let’s put up the miners, because you feel that the miners now have an opportunity to really rise. Silver below $20 an ounce these days. That seems to me like a good buy because it’s so cheap.
SCHIFF: Well, it did get as high as $50 a couple of years ago. But it started the rally from below $4. So, we’re in a big bull market. We’ve been pausing for the last couple of years. But I think it’s the pause that’s going to refresh. I think what drove the metals market lower in 2013 was the false belief in a U.S. recovery, and the idea the Fed was through with QE, and that we were on the verge of a tightening cycle. None of that is true. We are slipping back into recession. Janet Yellen is going to launch an even bigger round of QE than what Bernanke launched. And this is going to be very bullish for gold and silver. But it’s not going to be bullish for the U.S. economy.


“Safeguarding Your Portfolio By Investing Abroad”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Marc Faber: ‘The Gold Market Has Bottomed-Out’

Well-known investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the FOX Business show Opening Bell last Wednesday. Speaking by phone, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report was asked by host Maria Bartiromo about the geopolitical instability going on and investing in such an environment. From their exchange:

BARTIROMO: Mark, what do you think? What would you be doing right now as an investor?
FABER: Well, basically, I always own some shares. Most of my shareholdings are in Asia… In Asia, the Indian market is up 22 percent year-to-date. The Thai market is up 20 percent in dollar terms. Jakarta is up 24 percent. Philippines up 18 percent. Karachi up 17. Ho Chi Min up 17.
BARTIROMO: So you want to continue to stay exposed to Asia then and not the U.S.?
FABER: Yes. Yes. I worry about the geopolitical tensions, and they have an impact on Vietnam. But I think all the Asian countries are so China-centric that there won’t be a military conflict. There’ll be rattling and disputes and so forth. But the U.S. doesn’t have the power to really wage a war in Asia. That we have to be very clear about.
BARTIROMO: Mark, very quickly, the bottom line on the U.S.- do you think we’re going to see a sell-off this year?
FABER: Yes.
BARTIROMO: How significant?
FABER: As I told you before, I would own some gold, because I think the gold market has bottomed-out. Year-to-date, the junior gold mining index is up 40 percent.


“How geopolitical issues could derail the markets”
FOX Business Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Robert Shiller: ‘The United States Stock Market Looks Very Expensive Right Now’

Back on July 18, I asked if Robert Shiller, the Yale professor credited with correctly-calling the “dot-com” and housing busts, saw froth in the U.S. stock market.

A month ago, I offered, “You make the call.”

Today, I think Dr. Shiller does see froth.

The “crash prophet” penned “The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations,” which appeared on The New York Times website yesterday. From the article:

The United States stock market looks very expensive right now. The CAPE ratio, a stock-price measure I helped develop — is hovering at a worrisome level.

I wrote with some concern about the high ratio in this space a little over a year ago, when it stood at around 23, far above its 20th-century average of 15.21. (CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-earnings.) Now it is above 25, a level that has been surpassed since 1881 in only three previous periods: the years clustered around 1929, 1999 and 2007. Major market drops followed those peaks.

The CAPE was never intended to indicate exactly when to buy and to sell. The market could remain at these valuations for years. But we should recognize that we are in an unusual period, and that it’s time to ask some serious questions about it…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

A somewhat alarming piece- considering Shiller’s history- which you can read in its entirety on the Times’ website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Sunday, August 17th, 2014 Crash Prophets, Investing, Stocks No Comments

Marc Faber On Stocks: ‘A Rebound Is Underway’

Swiss-born investment advisor and money manager Marc Faber is uncharacteristically bullish these days. “Doctor Doom” told CNBC Squawk Box viewers this morning:

Now, a rebound is underway, in my opinion. But, I doubt we’ll make new highs…

In general, I think we’ve moved into a very low growth environment. And given the inflated asset markets- real estate, equities, and bonds- I think the future returns will be very low.


“Perma-bear Marc Faber: We’re seeing a rebound”
CNBC Video

The other week, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report told a CNBC Halftime Report audience:

I rather think that we’ll make a peak sometime between the next 30 to 60 days and then go down meaningfully.

If Dr. Faber doubts new highs will be reached in this rebound, did the peak already come and go, somewhat earlier than originally expected?. It kinds of sounds that way.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Monday, August 11th, 2014 Bonds, Crash Prophets, Housing, Investing, Stocks No Comments

Peter Schiff On Direction Of Interest Rates, Housing, And Gold

Last Friday, “crash prophet” Peter Schiff added a new entry to his YouTube video blog- The Schiff Report. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital warned viewers that the Federal Reserve is bluffing about raising interest rates. Schiff- who correctly-called the bursting of the housing bubble in addition to the 2008 economic crisis- also touched on the direction of the residential real estate market and gold. On interest rates and housing, he pointed out:

The risk is that the Fed doesn’t tighten at all, which is exactly what’s going to happen, because they can’t tighten. If the Fed actually tightens, the recovery is over. The recovery that is supposedly giving them the confidence to raise rates- it can’t exist if they raise rates. In fact, if the Fed could raise rates, they would have already raised them. I mean, it’s been over five years. They’re still at zero. And they’re saying rate hikes are a year way maybe. Why? If the economy is recovering, why can’t the Fed raise rates? Because if the Fed raised rates, we’d be right back in recession. Because it’s a phony recovery. That’s what people have to understand. It’s not real. It’s only here as long as the Fed can artificially sustain it, which she might. The minute they raise interest rates, that party’s over. The stock market’s going down. The real estate market’s going down.

And by the way, we had a plethora of negative numbers all week for the housing market. You could put a fork in this phony housing recovery, because it’s done. The market is going down. Housing prices are heading back down. Housing activity is slowing. I think a lot of layoffs are coming in construction because this market’s grinding to a halt…

The Fed is bluffing. This is all bark and no bite. It is impossible for the Fed to raise interest rates. If they could do it, they would have already done it. If they raise interest rates now, they destroy the very recovery that the low interest rates created. The problem is, if it isn’t a real recovery, it’s phony. If it was real, it wouldn’t need the Fed to support it. The only reason it does need the Fed’s support is because it’s imaginary. It’s phony. Because the actual economy is getting worse.

What the Fed is doing to goose the stock market, and the real estate market, to create this phony wealth effect, is undermining legitimate wealth creation. All the money we’re borrowing to spend is interfering with legitimate, genuine economic growth. And we’re just digging ourselves into a bigger and bigger hole…

The problem is, we’re going to have the next recession, and the Fed’s still going to be at zero. They’re still going to have this bloated balance sheet. And again, it’s not that the Fed is never going to raise rates. They’re just not going to do it voluntarily. They’re not going to do it as a decision. They’re not going to do it until they have to. And it’s not going to be a strong economy that’s going to force them to raise rates. Because I don’t care how strong the economic data is- they ain’t going to raise rates. And it doesn’t matter how bad the inflation data is- they’re still not going to raise rates. They’re not going to raise rates until the dollar collapses. Until foreigners no longer want to hold the dollar, because they understand the predicament that the Fed is in. They understand that it is QE forever. That it is all just talk. There is no exit strategy. There never was. Because exit is too painful. This is the end game of QE. This is the all in. This is the overdose.

On gold, Schiff predicted:

Janet Yellen is not going to wage war against inflation. She has already surrendered to inflation. It’s just that a lot of people haven’t figured that out yet. So, because people think that Janet Yellen might raise interest rates sooner rather than later because of inflation, they sold gold. If they knew the truth, that Janet Yellen isn’t going to care about the inflation, that’s she’s just going to let it get worse because she is too afraid to challenge inflation for fear of what it will do to the economy, to the stock market, to the housing market, the job market. So she is going to allow inflation to not only continue, but accelerate. And that is what’s good for gold.


“Ending QE is Bad, Not Ending it is Worse”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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