Investing

Marc Faber Doubts Fed Rate Hike In 2015, Buys Crude Oil Stocks

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was recently interviewed by Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy at CNBC-TV18 (India). The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked about a number of financial/investing topics- including a potential rate hike soon by the Federal Reserve. From a transcript of the discussion published on the Moneycontrol.com website on April 13:

Sonia: So, you are not expecting a rate hike from the US Fed this year?

A: What I said is in my view the Fed will not increase rates this year unless there is really a very sharp pick up in the economy or there is a colossal pot-hole developing in stocks. But otherwise I doubt it because the dollar has been strong. Okay, it may weaken somewhat, but I do not think it will collapse against the euro and against the yen and the British pound and so forth. So, the dollar is relatively strong. The economy in the US, the latest say, ten indicators that came out were all on the weak side. And under these conditions I doubt the Fed will increase rates. But that is an academic debate. What is important is I think the Feds and other Western Central Bankers will keep interest rates at a very low level for a very long time and will try to keep interest rates in real terms negative. In other words below the rates of cost of living increases.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Dr. Faber shares the belief of fellow “crash prophet” Peter Schiff concerning an increase in the federal funds rate in the near future. However, Schiff has added that if the U.S. central bank does raise interest rates anytime soon, it will be miniscule.

Faber, who correctly forecast the rise of commodities, emerging markets, and China last decade, shares something else with a different “prophet.” From the transcript:

Latha: Yes, I note your exasperation. Therefore let me come to another asset class: commodities. Do you think they have bottomed or is it that there would be a long trough for this asset class?

A: We have to distinguish because the price of oil has very little to do with the price of orange juice or coffee. So each commodity has its own price dynamics driven by global production and global demand. Now industrial commodities have performed miserably along with emerging markets over the last couple of years because the demand was slowing down especially from China. So, you have prices of iron ore and steel and copper and oil that have collapsed. I happen to think that at this level a lot of commodities are reasonably priced, does not mean they will go up right away. But they come now into a buying rate and I have been buying some oil stocks recently.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last Sunday, I noted Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, who spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier, had purchased a crude oil ETF.

You can read the transcript of the entire exchange between Dr. Faber and CNBC-TV18 on Moneycontrol.com here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Advises Americans, Greeks: ‘Don’t Hold On To Dollars, Just Like You’re Not Going To Hold On To Drachma’

Tuesday, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, compared Greece’s financial situation with what’s going on in the United States. From his April 14 SchiffGold “Gold Videocast” entry on YouTube.com:

The only difference between Greece and the United States is the perception of our creditors. Because we are just as broke. We have borrowed more money than we can repay. Not only have we borrowed it like Greece, and we owe over $18 trillion when it comes to the national debt- the bonds that have been issued where we actually owe principal and interest payments. But just like Greece politicians, American politicians have made all sorts of promises to everybody to get votes. And there’s nothing that’s going to stop the U.S. government from repaying its commitments in worthless money. Just like there’s nothing that’s going to stop the Greeks once they get the Euro out of the way, and go back to the drachma…

And when the dollar collapses, and prices skyrocket, it’s not going to do any good if the government kept its promise in money that doesn’t buy anything. So I would give the same advice today to Americans as I would for Greeks:

Don’t hold on to dollars, just like you’re not going to hold on to drachma. Turn your dollars into something else, something of real, tangible value, that the government can’t create out of thin air. And I think the best choice would be gold. Gold or silver can retain their purchasing power in the face of government default through inflation.


“Greece and the Euro Breakup; Why the US Dollar Is Facing an Even Bigger Crisis”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Robert Shiller Buys Crude Oil ETF

It’s kind of quiet on the “crash prophet” front this weekend. That being said, back on March 29 I blogged about original “prophet” Robert Shiller being bullish on crude oil. I wrote:

Yale economics professor Robert Shiller spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier. And these days, the “crash prophet’s” observations have led him to think crude oil may be a good investment. According to an Agence France-Presse article from March 23:

Asked how he would invest his money, Shiller replied: “It’s difficult. But I think now could be a good time to invest in oil or in a rise in oil prices,” he said.

“Prices are very low and there are a lot of reasons to assume that they won’t stay low. That’s what I’ve bet on,” Shiller said…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

On April 2, MarketWatch’s Anora Mahmudova provided insight into what may have been Dr. Shiller’s “bet.” She reported:

As for his own investments, Shiller said he reduced his stock holdings in light of various indicators, but that does not mean he has abandoned equities.

But he is hedging his bets. He told MarketWatch that he’s purchased an oil ETF. Shiller said few understand the value of commodities like oil as an asset class. “It is uncorrelated to stocks, and prices are low. But if you look at oil-futures contracts, they indicate that prices will be higher,” the economist noted, referring to forward-month contracts…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Wonder what else, if anything, Shiller likes these days besides oil?

Stay tuned…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

Mahmudova, Anora. “Why Robert Shiller is calling this U.S. stock market ‘a great enigma.’ MarketWatch. 2 Apr. 2015. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-robert-shiller-is-calling-this-us-stock-market-a-great-enigma-2015-04-02). 12 Apr. 2015.

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Jim Rogers Still Bullish On Russian Stocks

Despite the near-constant stream of bad news coming from the mainstream financial media about Russia these days, well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers appears to still be bullish on Russian stocks. Yelena Orekhova and Olga Popova reported on the Reuters website Monday:

Now may be the time to invest in Russian shares because oil prices have hit bottom and the Russian stock market is rising, veteran U.S. financier Jim Rogers said on Monday.

“I’m very optimistic about the future of Russia,” he told a conference in Moscow arranged by investment firm BCS. “Certainly one of the most attractive stock markets in the world these days for me is Russia.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Orekhova and Popova added:

Russia could now be “the right place at the right time” for investors, he said. His own portfolio consists largely of Russian shares, he said, among them fertiliser company Phosagro , airline Aeroflot and the Moscow Exchange.

The country’s economic downturn may make it an unlikely investment prospect, he said, but he was optimistic the stock market was going to rise more

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity might recall the former investing partner of George Soros having been bullish on the aforementioned Russian equities for some time. I noted back on November 25, 2014:

Izabella Kaminska reported on the Financial Times (UK) daily news and commentary blog today:

Russian investments now include stakes in fertiliser maker Phosagro, airliner Aeroflot, a Russia ETF and the Russian stock exchange, but he said was looking to expand into different sectors as well…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

According to that Reuters piece:

He also recommended buying short-term Russian treasury bills for investors with a one-year horizon.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

Orekhova, Yelena and Popova, Olga. “US financier Rogers says now may be time to invest in Russia.” Reuters.com. 6 Apr. 2015. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/06/russia-crisis-stocks-idUSL6N0X311W20150406). 6 Apr. 2015.

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Peter Schiff: Coming QE 4 ‘The Lethal Round,’ ‘The Decline Of The Dollar Is Only Just Getting Started’

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 126,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today…”

-U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Economic News Release,” April 3, 2015

Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff is out with his latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. On April 3, Schiff savaged the latest U.S. jobs report and told viewers:

I think that this is not a one-off fluke, and that all of a sudden we’re going to have another strong jobs report for April and May, and that all the other bad economic data is going to magically improve with the improvement in the weather…

If you’re expecting a big rebound in the second and third quarter, it’s going to have to come from the consumer spending more money he doesn’t have. So I don’t see where all this fantasy is coming from other than just sheer wishful thinking. But the Fed is going to at some point have to acknowledge that the U.S. economy is not as strong as it thought. And I can already hear the calls and the justification for more stimulus, for QE 4, whether they call it that or not, because everybody is going to agree “The problem is, that we just didn’t do enough stimulus”…

We’re going to do another round, and this is going to be the lethal round. This is going to be the overdose on QE. Because the crisis that’s coming is going to be a dollar crisis…

The decline of the dollar is only just getting started. Whether it’s going to continue next week, or it’s going to have to wait a little longer for people to figure this out. But you have this huge speculative bid that’s been in the dollar for months based on this false notion of this legitimate U.S. recovery and a Fed that’s going to be raising interest rates. We have neither. We have an illegitimate recovery. We have a bubble masquerading as a recovery. The air is already seeping out. And the Fed hasn’t even pricked it by raising rates, which is why they don’t want to raise rates, because they don’t want to accelerate the process. In fact, they’re going to do whatever they can to delay it by blowing air back into the bubble with QE 4.


“Job Growth Fades as Excuses Wear Thin”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Goldman Sachs: About 20 Years’ Worth Of Known Mineable Gold Left

Leading global investment banking, securities, and investment management firm Goldman Sachs has put the spotlight back on gold and other prized commodities. Myra P. Saefong reported on the MarketWatch website this morning:

In another two decades, rare commodities may become seriously scarce.

According to Goldman Sachs, the world has about 20 years’ worth each of known minable reserves of gold, diamonds and zinc. Platinum, copper, nickel reserves only have about 40 years or less left.

“The combination of very low concentrations of metals in the Earth’s crust, and very few high-quality deposits, means some things are truly scarce,” Eugene King, European metals and mining analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a recent research note…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Could “peak gold” really have arrived? Regular observers of the precious metal shouldn’t be surprised to hear of its mention. Lawrence Williams reported on Mineweb.com (web-based international mining publication focusing on mining financial and corporate news and comment) back on March 25, 2013:

A new study from research and data provider IntierraRMG has pointed to a disturbing trend in terms of a decline in new global discoveries and in particular in gold grades. According to a study which covers announced gold deposit finds over the past 10 years, this decline has been accelerating over the past four years and if the trend continues, which seems likely as the easier-to-find deposits have perhaps mostly already been discovered, then the future of global mined gold supplies will gradually become affected. Indeed global production of mined gold has been plateauing and although running at or around its historic high levels, as the amount of new gold being found diminishes, then global production levels may not be sustainable beyond the next few years unless there is a dramatic turnaround in discoveries

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last fall, the chief executive of the world’s biggest gold miner (by market capitalization) was warning of “peak gold.” Alistair MacDonald reported on The Wall Street Journal website on September 8, 2014:

Miners have reached “peak gold,” in which production of the precious metal has hit its high as easy-to-mine gold deposits become harder to find, said Chuck Jeannes, chief executive of Goldcorp, the world’s largest gold miner by market capitalization.

Mr. Jeannes said in an interview that a falloff in supply will support the gold price, but make mining it even harder and lead to further consolidation in the industry…

“Whether it is this year or next year, I don’t think we will ever see the gold production reach these levels again,” he said. “There are just not that many new mines being found and developed.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

If “peak gold” is truly taking place here, there’s a good chance investors are going to pay more attention to the shiny yellow metal going forward.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Saefong, Myra P. “In 20 years, the world may run out of minable gold.” MarketWatch. 31 Mar. 2015. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-20-years-the-world-may-run-out-of-minable-gold-2015-03-30). 31 Mar. 2015.

Williams, Lawrence. “New gold discoveries declining at accelerating rate – IntierraRMG.” Mineweb. 25 Mar. 2013. (http://www.mineweb.com/archive/new-gold-discoveries-declining-at-accelerating-rate-intierrarmg/). 31 Mar. 2015.

MacDonald, Alistair. “Goldcorp CEO Jeannes Sees “Peak Gold” in Sector This Year or Next.” The Wall Street Journal. 8 Sep. 2014. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/goldcorp-ceo-jeannes-sees-peak-gold-in-sector-this-year-or-next-1410188689). 31 Mar. 2015.

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Robert Shiller: ‘I Think Now Could Be A Good Time To Invest In Oil’

Yale economics professor Robert Shiller spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier. And these days, the “crash prophet’s” observations have led him to think crude oil may be a good investment. According to an Agence France-Presse article from March 23:

Asked how he would invest his money, Shiller replied: “It’s difficult. But I think now could be a good time to invest in oil or in a rise in oil prices,” he said.

“Prices are very low and there are a lot of reasons to assume that they won’t stay low. That’s what I’ve bet on,” Shiller said…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Dr. Shiller repeated his belief that European stocks were more reasonably priced than U.S. equities. From the AFP piece:

Shiller said European stocks, including German stocks, were still a bargain, compared with US stocks.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I blogged back on February 19:

The Nobel Prize-winning economist was on CNBC’s Squawk Box TV show Wednesday and talked equities (among other things) with Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin, and Brian Sullivan. From their exchange:

SHILLER: The things that is really striking- and maybe not today- is the low-level, long-term interest rates. It is just stunning how low they have gotten. Recently, the 30-year TIPS real rate was at half-a-percent. That’s incredible for 30 years. And that is pushing the stock market up. But it’s not the kind of euphoria that we saw notably in 2000.
SORKIN: What percentage do you have in equities?
SHILLER: It’s about half.
SORKIN: Half?
SHILLER: Yeah.
SORKIN: Have you changed it recently? Will you change it?
SHILLER: Yeah. I’m thinking of getting out of the United States somewhat.
SORKIN: You are?
SHILLER: Yeah. I think Europe is so much cheaper.
SORKIN: And you’d buy big multinationals based in Europe? You’d buy smaller companies in Europe? What would you do?
SHILLER: Well, what I have done is I’ve invested in Italy indexes. Spain index.
SORKIN: Are you hedging currency?
SHILLER: No, I’m not.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

“ROBERT SHILLER: It’s not euphoria driving this stock market boom- it’s fear.” Agence France-Presse. 23 Mar. 2015. (http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-fear-behind-current-stock-market-highs-nobel-laureate-2015-3?utm_source=gatehouse&utm_medium=referral). 28 Mar. 2015.

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Jim Rogers: ‘When This Ends, It’s Going To Be Much Worse Than The Last Time We Had A Big Collapse In The Financial Markets’

Investor Jim Rogers appeared on Bloomberg TV India last Friday. Anupriya Nair asked the CEO of Rogers Holdings about a number of financial/investing topics, including his outlook for emerging markets. The co-founder of the legendary Quantum Fund issued the following warning to viewers. From their exchange:

NAIR: Jim, you’re an avid traveler as well. We here in the emerging markets are bystanders and watchers of what’s happening in the developing world. Should we be concerned though with the kind of movements we’re seeing in global currency and commodity markets. Is this the making of a perfect storm for emerging markets?
ROGERS: Oh yes. We’re going to have serious problems. America’s stock markets have been going up, almost straight up, for six years. That’s very unusual. At the same time, debt has been going higher and higher and higher all over the world, and central banks have been printing a lot of money. That is not normal. When this ends, it’s going to be much worse than the last time we had a big collapse in the financial markets. It’s going to be much, much worse. So yeah, we all should be concerned. We’re getting some signals now, in the emerging markets- markets which borrowed a lot of money. No, it’s going to be a mess the next time we have a financial crisis. And we will have financial crises- we’ve been having them since the beginning of time. If anybody tells you there’s no more financial crises, run the other way.

The entire interview can be viewed on the Bloomberg TV India website here. That bit about the next financial crisis starts at 5:21.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers Names ‘Top Three Best Currencies To Hold In Your Asset Portfolio’

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers was recently interviewed by Geoff Rutherford for Sprott Money News. Rogers talked about a number of financial/investment topics, including currencies. From their exchange recorded March 12, 2015:

RUTHERFORD: Right. Now kind of, I guess, tying in with this as well. The next question is, what are the top three best currencies to hold in your asset portfolio? And likewise, this must be from one of our Canadian listeners, where does Canada fit into the above question?
ROGERS: Well, I’ll tell you, my top three at the moment- my top three at the moment are the U.S. dollar, the Chinese renminbi, and the Hong Kong dollar. Those are the ones I own the most. Hong Kong dollar of course is tied to the U.S. dollar at the moment. The Canadian dollar- I own some Canadian dollars. Canada has been a sounder country than the U.S. for the past 30 years say. No, not 30 years, past 20 years that Canada’s been run more on a sounder basis than the U.S. So I still own some Canadian dollars. They’re certainly down in the last two or three years against the U.S. dollar for a variety of reasons, but I still own Canadian dollars.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Ask The Expert – Jim Rogers (March 2015) | Sprott Money News”
(Currency discussion starts @ 7:29)
YouTube Video

The last time I blogged about Rogers and currencies, I noted back on November 11, 2014, he had just bought Russian rubles.

The former investing partner of George Soros also talked about gold, the taxation of U.S. bullion coins, China, Russia, the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, the safest countries to keeps money and assets, and Canada in this installment of “Ask The Expert”.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘We Are Headed For A Huge Day Of Reckoning’

Disturbing words from Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff in his latest entry on the The Schiff Report video blog on YouTube.com. The man who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust and economic crisis at the end of the last decade warned March 18:

People think we have a legitimate recovery. We don’t. If we did, the Fed would have already raised interest rates years ago. In fact, Janet Yellen said, that even at this mythical point in the future when the Fed may in fact raise rates, she said that she’s still going to keep them a lot lower than they should be. Why? I mean, why do we have to keep interest rates artificially low? If the economy is really recovering, why does it still need to be stimulated? Six years into a recovery. Because it’s all artificial. You can’t take it away. There is now so much debt, we’re so much more levered up than we’ve ever been, that we need these drugs more than ever. And I think just diminishing the dose is going to bring us into recession. See, as weak as the economy is, we’re teetering on the brink of recession. If the Fed raised rates, they would push us over the edge. But I think just the mere absence of QE 3 is enough to bring us into recession because we need those drugs. And I think the air is already coming out of the bubble- that’s why it’s deflating. That’s why the U.S. economy is decelerating so rapidly. That’s why these numbers are coming out so bad. And it’s only a matter of time before the jobs numbers catch up with everything else…

We are headed for a huge day of reckoning. The fact that that day of reckoning has been delayed for so many years, because so many people still don’t understand the predicament that we’re in, because we’ve been able to borrow so much more money and spend it and speculate with it over these years- that hasn’t stopped it from coming. That just means that there’s that much more to reckon with. And I think it’s that much more important for people who understand this, who have been patiently waiting. While other people have been chasing bubbles and buying dollars, our strategy is to hold on to real assets to foreign assets, foreign stocks, precious metals. The fact that we’ve had to wait so many extra years for the payday, in my mind, it means that the payday is going to be that much bigger because we had to wait so much longer to receive it. Because all of the economic imbalances, all of the problems that caused me to adopt the investment strategy that I did, are now worse than ever. None of the problems have been solved by the Fed- they’ve been exacerbated. And they are going to blow up. There’s a limit to how long the Fed can restrain these market forces. They’re going to try. As long as they can. But you can’t fool all the people all the time.


“Losing ‘Patience’ Does not Mean the Fed has Lost Patience”
YouTube Video

“Teetering on the brink of recession.”

“Headed for a huge day of reckoning”

Remember, Schiff isn’t alone in his dour assessment of the U.S. economy and larger financial system. And unlike most of the “experts” you see in the mainstream media these days, he got those calls on the housing market and financial crisis correct while they didn’t even see it coming.

“It’s only a matter of time before the jobs numbers catch up with everything else”

As I’ve said before, it might be wise to take advantage of a labor market that’s not as lean as it was a few years ago to bolster one’s financial position.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers Says Commodities Bull Market Alive, Shares Top Picks

Tonight I was reading HardAssetsInvestor.com, the research-oriented web site “devoted to sharing ideas about hard assets investing,” when I came across an interview of well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers. The former investing partner of George Soros touched on a number of topics, but I was most interested in what he had to say about the state of commodities and potential money-making opportunities in that area. From the exchange with HAI Managing Editor Sumit Roy:

ROY: If you look at the broad commodity indices, they’ve fallen for four-straight years. A lot of analysts are out there right now talking about how, given this poor performance, commodities are in a bear market. Do you agree with that?

ROGERS: I would disagree that the fundamentals are like that. If you look back at the bull market in stocks between 1982 and 2000, there were plenty of periods when stocks went down a lot and stayed down a while. You may remember in 1987, stocks went down 40 to 80 percent around the world. Many people said the bull market was over. Likewise, they said the same thing in 1989, 1990, 1994. I could go on and on.

In my view, the permanent fundamentals are not bad enough yet that the bull market is over. I still own some commodities, especially agriculture. It’s not over till it’s over…

ROY: What are your top commodity picks for the next year or two?

ROGERS: Agriculture’s extremely depressed, so I would look there to find places to invest in. Believe it or not, something like sugar is down more than 75 percent from its all-time high, and that was 40 years ago. If you’re talking about a depressed market, sugar’s very depressed. I would get out the charts and see which other ones are also depressed and start doing my homework in those areas.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

It’s common knowledge that Jim Rogers predicted the start of the commodities bull market that began in 1999.

Back on December 11, 2014, I blogged about what Singapore-based Rogers said regarding the best ways to invest in agriculture.

You can read the rest of the insightful HAI interview on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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GoldSilver.com’s Mike Maloney Sees Stock Market Crash Coming In Near Future

Yesterday, I noted the bull market in U.S. stocks turned 6.

Subsequently, I’ve been dying to hear what certain individuals in the finance/investing world think where equities might be heading from here.

Enter Mike Maloney, who I blogged about back on January 21. I wrote at that time:

Regular Survival And Prosperity readers may recall that GoldSilver.com used to be an affiliate marketing partner of the blog. Great company (specializes in the instruction of precious metals investing and providing world-class gold and silver dealer services and products), but they pulled the plug on their affiliate marketing program not too long ago. Anyway, I still receive e-mails from the Santa Monica, California-based operation, and yesterday I watched a video by Mike Maloney, the precious metals expert, advisor, and author who heads up the firm. Maloney has been an advisor to Robert Kiyosaki of Rich Dad Poor Dad-fame, and even wrote a book about investing in gold and silver under the Rich Dad’s Advisors series.

Maloney discussed the potential ramifications of the Swiss franc being unpegged from the euro in that GoldSilver.com video. Seizing upon another current event (the booming stock market), he warned viewers in a different video today:

Is there a stock market crash coming in your near future?

And I believe that there is…

The current stock market bull market that we’ve seen since 2009 is just a cyclical bull within a secular bear. And that it’s probably peaking and it’s going to continue down.


“Stock Super Bubble Setting Up For Crash – Mike Maloney”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Tuesday, March 10th, 2015 Bubbles, Investing, Precious Metals, Stocks No Comments

Bull Market In Stocks Turns 6, Wall Street Sees At Least 7

The bull market in U.S. stocks turned 6-years-old today. On March 9, 2009:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 6,547.05, its lowest point since April 15, 1997
• The S&P 500 was at 676.53, its lowest point since September 12, 1996.
• The NASDAQ finished the day at 1,268.64, its lowest point since October 9, 2002

On March 9, 2015:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 17,995.72, a 174.87 percent increase
• The S&P 500 was at 2,079.43, a 207.37 percent gain
• The NASDAQ finished the day at 4,942, a 289.55 percent jump

When compared to other bull markets, the Associated Press noted:

There have been 12 bull markets since the end of World War II, with the average run lasting 58 months, according to S&P Capital IQ. At 72 months, the current streak is the fourth longest in that period. While this run could be described as middle-aged, it is still a few years short of the longest streak, which started in 1990 and stretched 113 months into 2000…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

So will it be a “lucky 7″ for this bull?

Kristen Scholer wrote over on the Moneybeat blog on The Wall Street Journal website this afternoon:

Wall Street is predicting the bull market can last at least another year. Strategists across the Street are calling for the S&P 500 to rise in the mid- to high-single digits in 2015 after three consecutive years of double-digit growth…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Time will tell if the strategists on the Street are correct…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

“The bull market at 6; charging hard or out of control?” Associated Press. 9 Mar. 2015. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102488585#.). 9 Mar. 2015.

Scholer, Kristen. “The Six-Year Bull Market in Five Charts.” Moneybeat. 9 Mar. 2015. (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/03/09/the-six-year-bull-market-in-five-charts/). 9. Mar. 2015.

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Monday, March 9th, 2015 Investing, Stocks, Wall Street No Comments

Lord Rothschild Warns ‘Geopolitical Situation Perhaps As Dangerous As Any We Have Faced Since World War II’

Jacob Rothschild, or 4th Baron Rothschild Bt, OM, GBE, FBA, as he’s known across “the pond,” has issued a warning to investors in RIT Capital Partners, an investment trust chaired by the 78-year-old banker. Lord Rothschild wrote in the £2.3 billion trust’s 2014 annual report (Report & Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2014) under “Chairman’s Statement”:

Our policy has been clearly expressed over the years. Simply put, it is to deliver long-term capital growth while preserving shareholders’ capital; the realization of this policy comes at a time of heightened risk, complexity and uncertainty. The economic and geopolitical environment therefore becomes increasingly difficult to predict.

The world economy grew at a disappointing and uneven rate in 2014 after six years of monetary stimulus and extraordinarily low interest rates. Stock market valuations however, are near an all-time high with equities benefiting from quantitative easing. Not surprisingly, the value of paper money has been debased as countries have sought to compete and generate growth by lowering the value of their currencies – the Euro and the Yen depreciated by over 12% against the US Dollar during the course of the year and Sterling by 5.9%. The unintended consequences of monetary experiments on such a scale are impossible to predict.

In addition to this difficult economic background, we are confronted by a geopolitical situation perhaps as dangerous as any we have faced since World War II: chaos and extremism in the Middle East, Russian aggression and expansion, and a weakened Europe threatened by horrendous unemployment, in no small measure caused by a failure to tackle structural reforms in many of the countries which form part of the European Union.

However, in a world of zero or even negative bond yields, equities may well remain the destination of choice for investors. Furthermore, the majority of companies are reporting profits exceeding forecasts together with steady earnings growth. In Europe, the combination of a more competitive Euro, an aggressive programme of quantitative easing and the yields available on equities, may well lead to even higher valuations…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In 2012, it was reported the elder member of the Rothschild banking family took a $200 million position against the euro.

You can read the entire report on RIT Capital Partners website here (.pdf format).

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Robert Kiyosaki: 2002 Prediction Of Huge Stock Market Crash Next Year ‘Holding Course’

“‘Rich Dad’s Prophecy’- [Robert Kiyosaki’s] most recent book- predicts that the market will crash around 2016 when the oldest Baby Boomers start cashing out their 401(k) plans. Individuals whose savings are locked into 401(k) plans will suffer because these retirement plans, aren’t flexible and don’t do well in a bear market…”

-CNN.com, October 30, 2002

How many readers out there know who Robert Kiyosaki is? The American entrepreneur, educator, and investor was quite popular back in the early 2000s. I first encountered him while watching public television around that time, sharing financial and investment strategies taught to him by his rich “Dad” and found in his 2000 New York Times best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad. Kiyosaki went on to write a number of books, including Rich Dad’s Prophecy in 2002.

Last Tuesday, Robert Kiyosaki appeared on the Alex Jones Show. Kiyosaki talked about his new book, Second Chance, and other subjects, including a certain prediction made about the U.S. stock market next year. From their exchange:

JONES: The world is just crazy at this point. Give us your prognosis for the planet. There’s obviously opportunities for those of us that are studying it. I mean, I going to do better probably than ever as things get worse. But I’m not happy about that, because I know it’s hurting the average person.
KIYOSAKI: Amen. Alex, I would say exactly the same thing. It doesn’t make me happy that I’m getting richer and richer, and I see my friends getting poorer and poorer. I’m very concerned right now about my generation- the Baby Boom generation, the biggest generation in history. And they bought that program of put all your money in a 401(k) and invest for the long term. Now, I wrote a book called Rich Dad’s Prophecy back in 2002. That was 13 years ago. And I said the biggest stock market crash in the history of the world was coming in 2016. I was kind of guessing. But unfortunately, I didn’t write it to be right. I wrote it out of concern. If I’m correct that in 2002 what I said the biggest market crash was coming in 2016, that means millions and millions of Baby Boomers, their kids, their grandkids, will feel the effect of that when their retirement savings are wiped out. I hope I’m wrong. But so far, my numbers look accurate and it’s holding course right now. So I don’t write because I want to be rich or poke fun or want to be righteous. I am rather concerned about my fellow citizens.

“But so far, my numbers look accurate and it’s holding course right now.”

Disturbing. Kiyosaki added later on in the interview:

I’m just concerned about this possible- I hope it doesn’t happen- but if my “rich Dad” was correct, again, published in 2002 Rich Dad’s Prophecy predicted the biggest crash in the history of the world was coming in 2016. And that’s why I wrote Rich Dad Poor Dad, that’s why I speak, that’s why I write, that’s why I take on the media. But I’m very concerned for my [fellow] citizens. Look, Alex, what happens? Let’s say I’m right- hopefully I’m not. And millions of Baby Boomers lose their pensions, their homes, their jobs- they lose everything. What is the ripple effect throughout the world going to mean to that? We’ve never been here before. Never before has the U.S. dollar, one currency, been the reserve currency of the world- and we’re printing it. The Europeans are printing, Japanese are printing. And you’ve got to look at this and go, “This is not good.” So that’s my concern right now.


“Great Economic Collapse & Currency Meltdown Is Coming
Says Financier Robert Kiyosaki”
YouTube Video

So how is Robert Kiyosaki going to fend off the crisis he still sees coming? While taking phone calls from listeners, Kiyosaki revealed:

I like silver personally. I love gold. I have a lot of gold and silver.

Further insight was provided right before the holidays, when Eve Fisher of The Sydney Morning Herald reported:

“The world is in very serious trouble and the next 20 years will not be like the past two decades,” says Kiyosaki, who predicted the downfall of Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008 and the ensuing GFC.

“I foresee a global currency crash, like the one that ruined Germany in the 1920s, which will wipe out the poor and the middle class – as the rich get richer.

“People will see that money and shares are not real wealth, just paper, and the way to survive is by acquiring assets – like property, resources, gold and other precious metals.”

Farmers will benefit as land and food become highly valued commodities, he says…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

Fisher, Eve. “Robert Kiyosaki says to prepare for the worst.” The Sydney Morning Herald. 10 Nov. 2014. (http://www.smh.com.au/business/robert-kiyosaki-says-to-prepare-for-the-worst-20141111-11jyhr.html). 21 Feb. 2015.

Robert Kiyosaki’s latest book…

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