Investing

Martin Armstrong Covered By Washington’s Blog

When I last blogged about economist Martin Armstrong, I discussed his November 24 post on the Armstrong Economics Blog in which he talked about the elimination of cash and his belief “the United States will most likely break apart by 2036.” Disturbing stuff.

Like I’ve said before- for me, the jury’s still out on Armstrong. However, Washington’s Blog, which bills itself as “Real-Time, Well-Researched and Actionable News on America and the World,” published an insightful piece on the man and his forecasts back on December 30. From that post:

Martin Armstrong is a controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events … more or less to the day.

Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best. Armstrong credits a computer program he created (which he calls “Socrates”) for the accuracy of his forecasting.

Armstrong’s background is even more dramatic because he was jailed for 11 years on trumped-up allegations of contempt, fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. Armstrong was ultimately released without any charges, and – as the documentary The Forecaster explains – the 11-year imprisonment was a way to try to pressure him to hand over his forecasting program.

Washington’s Blog sent a reporter to Armstrong’s annual conference in Orlando, Florida, to see what all the buzz is about …

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Washington” noted Armstrong’s take on:

-Capital flows (declining)
-Debt (private superior to government)
-Europe (more chaos dead-ahead)
-U.S. stocks (bubble coming, then bust)
-European Union (Britain will survive because of Brexit)
-Cash (being eliminated by goverments for taxation purposes, negative interest rates)
-Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, or FATCA (negative impact on global economy, yet positive for taxation)
-Politicians (self-interested, greedy bastards)

Read all about it on Washington’s Blog here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Robert Shiller On Trump, Economy: ‘He Might Do Something Good’

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller was on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box yesterday talking about the state of the U.S. economy and the potential impact President-elect Donald Trump might have on it. The Yale University professor- who correctly called the dot-com and housing busts of the last decade- told viewers:

Well, the economy is looking strong. But at the expense of still near-zero interest rates. So it’s not normally healthy. And it relies on an institution, and Janet Yellen, that’s none too friendly with Donald Trump. So, I think it’s just a very uncertain time…

Regarding a “Trump Effect,” Dr. Shiller observed:

I think Trump is for many people an inspiration. He’s pro-business. Think big. Live large. That’s Trump. And to some extent that communicates to homebuyers as well as other investors… We’re in a revolutionary time. We don’t know what Trump is going to do. We know one thing- he’s got tremendous self confidence. And he doesn’t believe experts. Or he doesn’t just routinely believe them. So we’re going to see some big changes. It’s not just monetary- whether they raise interest rates another 50 basis points. It might be something more fundamental that comes up about how the Fed is even designed…


“Trump exciting ‘animal spirits’ in housing: Robert Shiller”
CNBC Video

Shiller also added this:

I didn’t vote for Trump. We’ve got him. Let’s hope for the best. He might do something good.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rickards: ‘We’re Going To Go Into A Recession Or The Stock Market Is Going To Have A Very Severe Correction’

Marc Faber isn’t the only “crash prophet” who realizes the financial environment U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could inherit is significantly different than what Ronald Reagan encountered in 1981. Back on December 5 I blogged about James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author, who was on RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) the prior week informing listeners of the following:

Less regulation, lower taxes, and a lot more infrastructure spending. This was Ronald Reagan’s playbook. This is what Ronald Reagan did in 1981 with a lot of success. But there are big differences, reasons to believe Trump will not be as successful. Namely because when Reagan came in, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio- the amount of debt relative to our economy- was 35 percent. Today it’s almost 105 percent. Reagan had inflation of 20 percent. Trump has it close to zero. In other words, Reagan had a lot of tailwinds– inflation had to come down, interest rates had to come down, he had fiscal space to run up the debt. Trump has headwinds

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last Tuesday, Rickards appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one Martin. I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

CNBC anchor Martin Soong asked his guest, “What is it going to take to cause these two outcomes- what’s the trigger going to be?” Rickards replied:

First of all, it’s already happening. There’s basically a head-long collision coming between perception and reality. So what’s the perception? The market’s rising on the Trump reflation trade. So, Trump wants to cut taxes. Steve Bannon’s talking to his advisors about a trillion dollars of infrastructure spending, cutting regulations. So all these things are viewed to be highly stimulative. So that’s why the market’s going up… But with the Fed, they’re thinking of two things. Number one, they believe in the Phillips Curve… With unemployment at 4.6 percent and that kind of stimulus coming, they know monetary policy acts with a lag- they want to get out ahead of inflation. So they’re on track to raise rates. By the way, they want to raise them anyway independent of this because they’ve got to raise them so they can cut them in the next recession. So the Fed’s on track to raise. The market expects stimulus. But here’s the point. The stimulus is not going to come. Congress has already said tax cuts have to be revenue neutral- that’s going to take away the stimulative effect. They’re going to balk at more spending. We have $20 trillion of debt. A 104 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. So we’re not going to get this trillion dollars of spending. And we’re in the eighth year of an expansion Martin. Keynesian stimulus- if it works at all, it works at the beginning of an expansion or in a recession. Not after 8 years. You don’t get much bang for the buck.


“Fed to reverse course by year-end: Expert”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Marc Faber Warns Of Trump Inheriting ‘Hugely Inflated Asset Markets’

In an interview with CNBC-TV18 (India) earlier today, Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber talked about a potential financial “poisoned chalice” U.S. President-elect Donald Trump might be inheriting. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report was asked about what he thought “the biggest risk for global markets in 2017” could be. “Doctor Doom,” as the financial press like to call him, responded with a trade war with China and the following:

When Mr Ronald Reagan became president in 1981, he was elected in November, 1980, asset markets were very depressed and interest rates at very elevated level. The treasury yields in America on the 20-year and 30-year bonds was over 15 percent. So, he inherited a huge tailwind of diminishing inflation, falling interest rates and depressed assets that had a huge upside potential in the 1980’s. Trump, he inherits, and that is the biggest risk, hugely inflated asset markets. The bond markets in the developed countries, as you know, have the lowest yield they ever had in the history of mankind. The bond yields will not go much lower. Now, can the 10-years yield that has gone from 1.3-1.4 percent to 2.5 percent, can it go back to 1.7 percent or 1.5 percent? Yes, possible, but it will not go much below 0 percent.

And number two, when you look at stock markets as a percent of the economy, the stock markets around the world as a percent of the economy are at a very high level, especially in the US. In other countries less so, but in the US they are. Furthermore, the US stock market has significantly, and I repeat, significantly outperformed other markets in the world since 2011 and it leaves it vulnerable to an adjustment. The adjustment may happen with the US not going up a lot. But other markets like India, emerging markets in general, Europe outperforming the US, or it could happen with everything coming down and then the US underperforming, going down more than other markets, which actually would be my view, what will happen. This is the risk…

(Editor’s notes: source CNBC-TV18 transcript and bold added for emphasis)

You can read the entire interview here on the CNBC-TV18 website.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Robert Shiller On Stocks: ‘I Can Imagine That It Might Go Up From Here, For A While, Even Though It’s At A High Level’

Yale University Economics Professor Robert Shiller was on CNBC this morning taking about the “Trump Rally” in stocks. The Nobel Prize winner, who correctly-called the dot-com and housing busts of the last decade, was asked if he thought U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is good for stocks. He replied:

Probably in the short run… I’m tempted to be optimistic, for the short run…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

On the possibility that equities might be at the end of a cycle, Dr. Shiller responded:

I’m certainly not saying we’re there now. In fact, it’s the other way around. I’m thinking, the market does look high. I think, maybe I wouldn’t go overall in a big way into the market. But going into under-priced, lower-priced sectors at this point- it still looks okay. It’s still going to give you a better return than investing in fixed incomes.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The “crash prophet” was also asked if he was at the point of raising a “red flag” on the stock market rally. Shiller told viewers:

I can imagine that it might go up from here, for a while, even though it’s at a high level.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Shiller: It’s not a good time, but I’m not saying panic”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Latest edition of the Dr. Shiller classic…

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Thursday, December 8th, 2016 Crash Prophets, Government, Investing, Stocks Comments Off on Robert Shiller On Stocks: ‘I Can Imagine That It Might Go Up From Here, For A While, Even Though It’s At A High Level’

Jim Rogers: ‘Gigantic, Gigantic Currency Turmoil’ Coming

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers recently spoke to Mike Manciel of the Rethinking the Dollar project, whose objective is “to promote the importance of alternative education in the realm of monetary literacy.” In the exchange posted on YouTube.com on November 26, the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about a number of financial topics, including currencies. Rogers told viewers:

In the next decade- if not much sooner- we’re going to have gigantic, gigantic currency turmoil. And that’s going to affect everything… The dollar is going to have a lot of problems. All currencies are going to have a lot of problems…

Addressing the U.S. dollar specifically, the Singapore-based investor said:

At the moment, I’m certainly watching currencies- especially the U.S. dollar. I own a lot of U.S. dollars for a variety of reasons…

People are worried about what’s happening in the world. And so a lot of money is coming into the U.S. to escape the turmoil they see elsewhere. Coming into the U.S. dollar. People think, Mike, around the world, think that the U.S. dollar is a safe haven. It’s not… But everybody thinks, they have the perception, that the U.S. dollar is a safe haven for historic reasons. So when they get scared they put their money into U.S. dollars. So the U.S. dollar is going higher and higher. I mean, that’s why I own a lot of U.S. dollars. Not because I think it’s a great place to be. Because I know the turmoil is coming. I know people will be scared. And the dollar will get overpriced. Might even turn into a bubble, Mike, before it’s over. But then, when everybody starts saying, “Wait a minute, this is crazy.” They start looking at the real fundamental situation of the U.S. dollar. Then they go and dump their U.S. dollars- I hope I get out first. And we’re going to have a gigantic, gigantic crisis. Be worried Mike, be worried…


“RTD Ep:50 “The Dollar Is Going To Have A Lot Of Problems” – Jim Rogers”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Rogers’ latest book…

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Wednesday, December 7th, 2016 Crash Prophets, Currencies, Investing Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘Gigantic, Gigantic Currency Turmoil’ Coming

Jim Rickards: Donald Trump Has Ronald Reagan’s Financial Playbook, But Faces ‘Headwinds’

Marc Faber. Peter Schiff. Now Jim Rickards. Three “crash prophets” who aren’t convinced U.S. President-elect Donald Trump can magically solve America’s economic ills. Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author, was on the RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) show Today with Sean O’Rourke last Wednesday talking about his new book when he informed listeners of the following:

Less regulation, lower taxes, and a lot more infrastructure spending. This was Ronald Reagan’s playbook. This is what Ronald Reagan did in 1981 with a lot of success. But there are big differences, reasons to believe Trump will not be as successful. Namely because when Reagan came in, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio- the amount of debt relative to our economy- was 35 percent. Today it’s almost 105 percent. Reagan had inflation of 20 percent. Trump has it close to zero. In other words, Reagan had a lot of tailwinds– inflation had to come down, interest rates had to come down, he had fiscal space to run up the debt. Trump has headwinds

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The editor of the financial newsletter Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence believes the next economic crisis (2018?) will be worse than the 2008 edition. When asked by O’Rourke what people with a “smaller or medium-size financial nest-egg” might do to prepare for it, Rickards advised:

For savers and investors at any level, modest or wealthier, put 10 percent of your investible assets in physical gold or silver. For smaller amounts, silver might do well…

He added some cash is good too.

You can listen to the entire interview (a little over 13 minutes) on the RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Rickards’ new book…

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Monday, December 5th, 2016 Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Fiscal Policy, GDP, Government, Inflation, Infrastructure, Interest Rates, Investing, Precious Metals, Spending, Taxes Comments Off on Jim Rickards: Donald Trump Has Ronald Reagan’s Financial Playbook, But Faces ‘Headwinds’

‘Europe Is Screwed’ Says Money Manager Portrayed In 2015 Film ‘The Big Short’

One film I haven’t gotten the chance to see yet is The Big Short. From the IMDb website for the 2015 movie:

Four denizens in the world of high-finance predict the credit and housing bubble collapse of the mid-2000s, and decide to take on the big banks for their greed and lack of foresight.

So imagine my interest when I came across an article a few days ago on The Guardian (UK) website entitled “The Big Short: Is the next financial crisis on the way?” Patrick Collinson wrote on November 19:

In the Oscar-winning The Big Short, Steve Carell plays the angry Wall Street outsider who predicts (and hugely profits from) the great financial crash of 2007-08. He sees sub-prime mortgages rated triple-A but which, in reality, are junk – and bets billions against the banks holding them. In real life he is Steve Eisman, he is still on Wall Street, and he is still shorting stocks he thinks are going to plummet. And while he’s tight-lipped about which ones (unless you have $1m to spare for him to manage) it is evident he has one major target in mind: continental Europe’s banks – and Italy’s are probably the worst

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

An insightful piece, in which Eisman also shares his views on U.S. banks these days. Head on over to The Guardian website here to read it in its entirety.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Friday, December 2nd, 2016 Banking, Europe, Investing, Stocks, Wall Street Comments Off on ‘Europe Is Screwed’ Says Money Manager Portrayed In 2015 Film ‘The Big Short’

Peter Schiff Predicts Gold ‘Going A Lot Higher’ As Trump Fed Draws From ‘Well Of QE’

In a post yesterday about Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber, I noted that the the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report reportedly told atendees at a recent investment conference that the U.S. economy “is not doing well” and that he predicted U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will be a “Keynesian” and money printer. This reminded me of an appearance last week by fellow “crash prophet” Peter Schiff on the CNBC TV program Futures Now in which the economist, financial broker/dealer, and author talked about a Federal Reserve under a Trump administration. Schiff warned viewers:

I think they’re going to go back to the same monetary stimulus that failed and is the reason that Donald Trump was elected. A lot of people believe that simply electing Donald Trump solves all the economic problems that are the reason that he was elected. But the problems haven’t been solved and they can’t be solved unless we’re willing to bite the bullet and allow a painful economic restructuring that is going to be necessary to pave the way for real economic growth. But I still think we’re going to go back to the “well of QE.” And that we’re going to get more stimulus. We’re going to get another quantitative easing. And I still believe that the Fed might reverse course and start cutting rates again, even as inflation accelerates…


“Huge bond bear market just beginning”
CNBC Video

The CEO of Euro Pacific Capital mentioned earlier in the segment that “inflation is accelerating at a much faster pace than the Fed is nudging up interest rates.” Within such an environment, gold could shine. Schiff added:

Gold benefits from inflation. The only way that you might undermine gold with inflation is if you have a Paul Volcker-style reaction from the Fed where they agressively raise interest rates to try and restrain it. And that’s not even conceivable that we could do that due to the enormity of the debt that we have. So if people understand that yes, we’re going to get more inflation, but there’s nothing the Fed can do about it but make the problem worse, then people see that there’s a lot of reasons to be buying gold. And certainly 1,200 has acted as pretty solid support. So the fact that we pulled back from 1,320-1,330 on the eve of the Trump victory back down to this support I think provides a good buying opportunity for people to buy more gold. Because I do think it’s going a lot higher during the Trump presidency.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Thursday, December 1st, 2016 Commodities, Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Federal Reserve, Government, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Stimulus Comments Off on Peter Schiff Predicts Gold ‘Going A Lot Higher’ As Trump Fed Draws From ‘Well Of QE’

Marc Faber Bullish On Gold, Gold Shares, Platinum

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the CNBC TV show Trading Nation yesterday. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked about potential investment opportunities, including precious metals. Dr. Faber told viewers:

As I said last year, precisely a year ago, when Barrick was around $6 and Newmont Mining around $17, I think that gold shares, after the recent correction, are still attractive. Don’t forget, gold has been talked down a lot recently, but the fact is when you say that gold is a currency, what has been the strongest currency on Earth this year? It’s up 11 percent in dollars, 32 percent in British pounds, and in Euros 14 percent. So I don’t think it’s been doing all that badly, even following the recent correction…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

After saying the U.S. economy “is not doing well” and predicting President-elect Trump will be a “Keynesian” and money printer, Faber added:

I would buy gold and platinum– they are depressed.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Marc Faber on stocks, bonds, gold and more”
CNBC Video

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that Marc Faber has been a long-time gold bull. Covering the V International Central and Eastern European Investment Conference in Warsaw, Poland, last Friday (where Faber was the keynote speaker), the Hungarian financial news website Portfolio reported:

Faber is optimistic for gold, arguing it should form a 20% component of a good investment portfolio. As a reserve, he prefers holding bullion to purchasing indirectly via ETFs, but maintains that exchange-traded gold funds are not a bad thing either…

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

“Marc Faber: Current era of negative rates ‘a historic first.'” Portfolio.hu. 25 Nov. 2016. (http://www.portfolio.hu/en/economy/marc_faber_current_era_of_negative_rates_a_historic
_first.32147.html). 30 Nov. 2016.

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Wednesday, November 30th, 2016 Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Exchange-Traded Funds, Government, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber Bullish On Gold, Gold Shares, Platinum
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