Investing

Warren Buffett’s $12 Billion Stock Purchase Analyzed

Back on January 31, I blogged about famous stock investor Warren Buffett informing talk show host Charlie Rose he bought $12 billion (net) of common stocks since Election Day.

The third richest man in the world and his equity purchases were the focus of an article on the FOX Business Network website today. Matthew Frankel reported:

According to Berkshire Hathaway’s latest SEC filing, Warren Buffett and company had an active fourth quarter in 2016. After sitting on a company record $85 billion cash hoard at the end of the third quarter, and having said that Berkshire spent $12 billion on common stocks in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory, investors have been wondering what Berkshire has been up to. Here’s the answer.

While we don’t necessarily know the reasoning behind Berkshire’s latest investments, or whether they were initiated by Warren Buffett himself or one of his trusted stock pickers, we do know what changed in Berkshire’s portfolio during the fourth quarter. Here are the most notable buys

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’m not going to steal Frankel’s thunder here. Head on over to the FBN website here to read what the “Oracle of Omaha” has been acquiring.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Thursday, February 16th, 2017 Government, Investing, Stocks Comments Off on Warren Buffett’s $12 Billion Stock Purchase Analyzed

Jim Rogers: ‘I Want To Own More Silver But I Want To Own It At A Lower Price Which I Expect’

Tonight I just got finished reading the transcript of a February 9, 2017, interview of well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers by Macro Voices’ Erik Townsend. As usual, the former investing partner of George Soros discussed a number of topics, including:

U.S. Stocks- “Happy days are here” if President Trump carries out those “wonderful things” he said he would (cut taxes, rebuild infrastructure, bring $3 trillion home which U.S. companies have overseas) and avoids trade wars

U.S. Dollar- Despite the correction, “it’s going to go too high, may turn into a bubble, at which point I hope I’m smart enough to sell it because at some point the market forces are going to cause the dollar to come back down because people are going to realize, oh my gosh, this is causing a lot of turmoil, economic problems in the world and it’s damaging the American economy.”

Junk Bonds- “I am shorting junk bonds still”

Precious Metals- “I’m still sitting and watching. I want to own more gold. I want to own more silver but I want to own it at a lower price which I expect.”

“War on Cash”- “Probably we are not going to have as many freedoms as we have now even though we are already losing our freedoms at a significant pace.”

The Singapore-based investor mentioned in a separate interview earlier this month regarding India’s demonetization efforts:

If governments do away with cash, it gives them more power and control.

Townsend’s interview was of Rogers was thorough and interesting, particularly that bit about silver. Head on over to the Macro Voices website here to listen to/read their exchange.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Wadhwa, Puneet. “Modi is doing everything he can to get votes: Jim Rogers.” Business Standard. 2 Feb. 2017. (http://www.business-standard.com/budget/article/modi-is-doing-everything-he-can-to-get-votes-jim-rogers-117020200389_1.html). 13 Feb. 2017.

Rogers’ latest book…

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Monday, February 13th, 2017 Asia, Bonds, Bubbles, Business, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Fiscal Policy, Freedom, Government, Infrastructure, Investing, Precious Metals, Spending, Stocks, Trade, War Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘I Want To Own More Silver But I Want To Own It At A Lower Price Which I Expect’

Peter Schiff Predicts Resumption Of Dollar Decline, Gold Rally This Week

It’s been a while, but Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff added a new entry to The Schiff Report YouTube vlog on Saturday. Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, talked about a number of subjects, including his belief that the Federal Reserve has no intention of raising rates in March, “a lot” of dollar selling is coming, and the gold rally will resume. From the video:

The reason the Fed didn’t give a clue that it might be raising rates in March, is because it has no intention of doing so…

I think the trade deficits are going up. I think the budget deficits are going up. Certainly to the extent that we get some tax cuts. We continue to get more government spending. If we get more government spending under Trump on the military, on the border, on infrastructure. Rising trade deficits. Rising budget deficits. Rising inflation. All of this is going to be a big negative for the dollar. And of course, everybody was so loaded up long the dollar, I think the people who own the dollar- there’s a lot of dollar selling that’s coming. And I think the dollar bulls are going to end up losing a lot of money…

Since the beginning of this year the Dow is barely up more than 1 percent. You can contrast that to the price of gold which is up 6 percent so far this year. Look at gold stocks. Gold stocks are up 17 percent as a group so far in 2017. 17 percent. Everybody’s talking about the Dow. No one’s talking about gold stocks. In fact, gold stocks were the number one performing sector last year, by far. Wasn’t even close. And they’re already by far the number one performing sector this year. But nobody really wants to talk about it…

I think we’re going to see a resumption of the dollar decline and gold rally next week…


“Rising Unemployment Is Just The Excuse The Fed’s Been Waiting For”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Schiff’s latest book…

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Monday, February 6th, 2017 Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Federal Reserve, Fiscal Policy, Government, Inflation, Infrastructure, Investing, Military, Monetary Policy, Precious Metals, Spending, Stocks, Taxes, Trade Comments Off on Peter Schiff Predicts Resumption Of Dollar Decline, Gold Rally This Week

Jim Rogers: ‘Next Period Of Economic Turmoil Is Going To Be Worse Than What We’ve Seen In Our Lifetime’

A couple of days ago I came across an interview with well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers that was published on The Globe and Mail (Canada) website back on January 26. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund answered a number of questions, including one about expressing “some pessimism about the world, particularly the U.S.” Rogers pointed out:

Every four to seven years since the beginning of the Republic, we’ve had economic turmoil. It has now been eight years since we had our last problem. We’re overdue. Mr. Trump has sworn trade wars with Mexico, China and a few others. If that happens, it’s all over. Trade wars have always led to bankruptcies—and often have led to wars, as well…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Rogers added this warning later on in the exchange:

The next period of economic turmoil is going to be worse than what we’ve seen in our lifetime…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

When asked how he prepared financially for such upheaval, the Singapore-based investor replied:

I’m very long the U.S. dollar. It is not a safe haven- the U.S. is the biggest debtor nation in history- but people think it is, so there will be flight into it. It might even turn into a bubble, depending on how bad the turmoil is. Let’s hope I’m smart enough to sell. My plan then is to buy gold

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Greenback, then gold for Mr. Rogers.

Back on December 7, 2016, I blogged about a different interview in which this gameplan was mentioned.

On January 23, I brought up a MarketWatch article featuring Jim Rogers in which markets reporter Sue Chang wrote:

“This is a good time to add dollars,” said Rogers, who believes that the greenback will continue to rise through this year into 2018

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The Chairman of Rogers Holding also talked about where he sees the best investment opportunities now and other interesting subjects in the insightful Globe and Mail piece, which you can read on their website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, February 6th, 2017 Asia, Bankruptcy, Bubbles, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Government, Investing, North America, Precious Metals, Trade, War Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘Next Period Of Economic Turmoil Is Going To Be Worse Than What We’ve Seen In Our Lifetime’

Numismatic News: ‘Precious Metals, On Average, Have Outperformed U.S. Stocks Since The End Of 1999’

“Past performance is not indicative of future results.” That being said, I spotted the following over on the Numismatic News website tonight. Pat Heller reported Thursday:

While much attention is now focused on U.S. stock indices reaching record levels, only a handful of people are aware that precious metals, on average, have outperformed U.S. stocks since the end of 1999.

As measured in U.S. dollars, here are how various asset classes have performed from Dec. 31, 1999, to Dec. 30, 2016

Gold +299.0%
Silver +193.5%
Russell 2000 +168.9%
MS-63 $20 Saint-Gaudens +147.9%
MS-63 $20 Liberty +139.8%
Platinum +111.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average +71.9%
Switzerland Franc +56.4%
MS-65 Morgan dollar +54.4%
Palladium +54.1%
Standard & Poors 500 +52.4%
NASDAQ +32.3%
China yuan +19.2%
Australia dollar +9.8%
Canada dollar +8.2%
Euro +4.5%
Japan yen -12.7%
Great Britain pound -23.6%
Brazil real -44.3%
Mexico peso -54.3%
South Africa rand -55.0%…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Interesting. Note the performance of numismatic coins ($20 Saint-Gaudens, $20 Liberty, Morgan dollar) in that list.

The inclusion of “MS-65 $20 Saint-Gaudens”- popular with numismatic gold investors- in the analysis would have been neat to see.

I just blogged about a MarketWatch piece on rare coin investing this Tuesday, which pointed out:

Between 1979 and 2014, the most recent year for which data is available, coins with a minimum score of 65 posted an average annual return of 11.9%, according to a study by Penn State University. That’s near the average annual return of 13% posted by equities and more than twice the 5.5% average annual gain of gold bullion. Coins with a lower score, between 63 and 65, had an average annual return of 10.1%.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Getting back to that Numismatic News piece, Heller also discussed long-term performance of some major currencies against an ounce of gold and recent demand for precious metals. An informative article, which you can read in its entirety on the publication’s website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Friday, February 3rd, 2017 Commodities, Currencies, Investing, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on Numismatic News: ‘Precious Metals, On Average, Have Outperformed U.S. Stocks Since The End Of 1999’

MarketWatch: ‘Rare Coins Could Outperform As Investments This Year’

“Alternative” investments seem to be attracting more attention these days.

On January 19, I pointed out a recent Town & Country magazine article about jewelry investing.

This afternoon, the MarketWatch website (a subsidiary of Dow Jones & Company) published a piece about rare coin investing. Ryan Vlastelica reported:

With inflation expected to rise this year, and a concurrently strengthening U.S. dollar seen eating into any gains that might be made by pure gold, investors may want to consider a niche asset class as a protection against market turbulence: rare coins

Between 1979 and 2014, the most recent year for which data is available, coins with a minimum score of 65 posted an average annual return of 11.9%, according to a study by Penn State University. That’s near the average annual return of 13% posted by equities and more than twice the 5.5% average annual gain of gold bullion. Coins with a lower score, between 63 and 65, had an average annual return of 10.1%.

Coins posted a higher correlation with inflation than other asset classes, according to the study, with the relationship about twice as strong as for gold. The correlation between coins and inflation is 0.58 (perfect correlation would be 1.0). It’s 0.27 for gold bullion and 0.15 for stocks. The higher the correlation, the better it works as a hedge

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

When it comes to rare coins, prospective investors might want to heed an adage made popular by numismatic literature dealer Aaron Feldman in the last century:

“Buy the book before the coin.”

You can read the entire article on the MarketWatch website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, January 31st, 2017 Commodities, Currencies, Inflation, Investing, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on MarketWatch: ‘Rare Coins Could Outperform As Investments This Year’

Warren Buffett: ‘We’ve, Net, Bought $12 Billion Of Common Stocks Since The Election’

In an interview aired Friday, famous stock investor Warren Buffett told talk show host Charlie Rose that he’s bought billions of dollars worth of equities since Election Day. The “Oracle of Omaha” revealed to viewers:

We’ve, net, bought $12 billion of common stocks since the election…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Buffett Says He’s Bought $12B In Stock Since Election”
Bloomberg Video

I just blogged about Buffett last Wednesday concerning his belief the United States will be fine under a Trump administration and his long-term outlook for stock prices. From that January 25 post:

Last Thursday, famed investor and Hillary Clinton backer Warren Buffett spoke to CNBC about his thoughts on the United States with Donald Trump at the helm. The third-richest man in the world told viewers:

Certainly he has the most important job in the world. But, America works. And I’ve said this before, it would work wonderfully under Hillary Clinton. I think it will work fine under Donald Trump. We’ve got the “secret sauce.” And it doesn’t work all the time perfectly. But you just look at where we go- milestone after milestone. And, never bet against America.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway also talked stocks. He predicted:

I have no idea what the stock market’s going to do in the next year. I do know it will be a lot higher 10 years from now and 20 years from now

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, January 31st, 2017 Government, Investing, Stocks Comments Off on Warren Buffett: ‘We’ve, Net, Bought $12 Billion Of Common Stocks Since The Election’

Warren Buffett: U.S. ‘Will Work Fine’ Under Trump, Stocks Headed ‘A Lot Higher’

Last Thursday, famed investor and Hillary Clinton backer Warren Buffett spoke to CNBC about his thoughts on the United States with Donald Trump at the helm. The third-richest man in the world told viewers:

Certainly he has the most important job in the world. But, America works. And I’ve said this before, it would work wonderfully under Hillary Clinton. I think it will work fine under Donald Trump. We’ve got the “secret sauce.” And it doesn’t work all the time perfectly. But you just look at where we go- milestone after milestone. And, never bet against America.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway also talked stocks. He predicted:

I have no idea what the stock market’s going to do in the next year. I do know it will be a lot higher 10 years from now and 20 years from now

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Warren Buffett says the US will do fine under Trump, because we’ve got the ‘secret sauce'”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Wednesday, January 25th, 2017 Government, Investing, Political Parties, Stocks Comments Off on Warren Buffett: U.S. ‘Will Work Fine’ Under Trump, Stocks Headed ‘A Lot Higher’

James Rickards: ‘Fed Will Have To Go Dovish’ And Bonds, Gold Will Rally

Back on December 27, James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one… I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

On January 12, James Rickards elaborated on this forecast on The Daily Reckoning website. He informed readers of “Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal”:

My short-term expectation is the Fed will raise rates in March. My intermediate-term expectation is that the market is going to be disappointed with the stimulus, the Fed tightening is going to be at the wrong time, the stock market’s going to “fall out of bed,” the economy’s going to slow down, and the Fed will have to go dovish.

At that point you’re going to see rallies in bonds, rallies in gold, and a decline in the stock market…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Rickards, James. “Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal.” The Daily Reckoning. 12 Jan. 2017. (https://dailyreckoning.com/be-prepared-violent-fed-reversal/). 23 Jan. 2017.

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Tuesday, January 24th, 2017 Bonds, Crash Prophets, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Precious Metals, Recession, Stimulus, Stocks Comments Off on James Rickards: ‘Fed Will Have To Go Dovish’ And Bonds, Gold Will Rally

Jim Rogers On U.S. Stocks, Dollar, Markets, And Economy Under Trump

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers speculated about the economy under President Trump in a MarketWatch piece published this afternoon. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about:

-U.S. stocks- “He very much wants a trade war. And if that happens, sell everything”

-U.S. dollar- “This is a good time to add dollars.” According to reporter Sue Chang, Rogers believes “the greenback will continue to rise through this year into 2018.”

-U.S. financial markets/economy- Chang added:

The one certainty that the markets can bet on, according to Rogers, will be more chaos under Trump, which may coincide with an economic turmoil on a global scale.

“We are overdue for a crisis,” he said, reiterating his steadfast view that debt levels across the world, including in the U.S. and China, continue to swell while interest rates are at historic lows…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that last summer Jim Rogers revealed he was basically short U.S. equities and long the dollar.

There was also this warning from the Singapore-based investor in May:

The world is facing some very complicated and difficult times. Once you become knowledgeable, you’re going to get very worried, which you should, and then you might get prepared, because not all of us are going to survive what’s coming in the next few years. I hope I survive, I hope everybody listening to this survives. But it’s going to be a very, very damaging and difficult time. So be worried. Be prepared

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Head on over to the MarketWatch site here to read the entire article.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, January 23rd, 2017 Asia, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Interest Rates, Investing, Preparedness, Stocks, Trade, Wall Street, War Comments Off on Jim Rogers On U.S. Stocks, Dollar, Markets, And Economy Under Trump
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