Poverty

Chicago’s 2016 Violence, ‘Fetal’ Policing Suggests Residents Focus On Personal Safety

Last Thursday, I wrote the following concerning some Chicago Tribune reader correspondence entitled “Letter: I’m leaving Chicago and I’m never coming back”:

I remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for the “Windy City.” That being said, I do believe conditions in the city will erode before improving again. For those dead set on remaining in town, please do yourself a favor and take a good, hard look at your financial and personal safety capabilities for successfully navigating any “storm” that may lie ahead. For example, how do your finances look with the real prospect of future tax hits down the road?

More later…

Later is today- as least as that bit about “personal safety capabilities” is concerned.

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that the physical well-being of Chicagoans in the face of growing criminal threats has been a priority of this blog since its inception. A recent post on the popular Chicago police blog Second City Cop and a just-released report from the University of Chicago Crime Lab seem to justify such concern.

“SCC” posted the following on Second City Cop on December 29, which suggests the Chicago Police Department is becoming increasingly “fetal”:

[Chicago Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson] claims we’re “still policing” despite all evidence to the contrary:

-street stops down from 159,000 in 2015 to 21,000 in 2016
-property crime skyrocketing in formerly “quiet” areas
-arrest down tens of thousands
-a 20% homicide clearance rate

The list is near endless, and the price is paid in bodies…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Yesterday, the University of Chicago Crime Lab released a report entitled Gun Violence In Chicago, 2016, which utilized data obtained from the Chicago Police Department and other sources “to provide a more complete picture of the change in our city’s crime problem in 2016.”

The “change” was disturbing. From the report’s “Introduction”:

Between 2015 and 2016, Chicago experienced 58 percent more homicides and 43 percent more non-fatal shootings. Annual increases of this size are not unprecedented among American cities, particularly in recent years, but are rare for a city of Chicago’s size. One striking feature of Chicago’s increase in gun violence is how sudden it was: as of December 2015, there was no indication that gun violence was on the verge of rising sharply. But in January 2016, homicides and shootings surged relative to their 2015 levels and remained higher in almost every month that followed, threatening 20 years of progress on violent crime in Chicago…

What changed in Chicago was not so much the nature of our violence problem, but rather its prevalence. Most murders involved guns, occurred in public places, and stemmed from what police believe was some sort of altercation. This violence continues to be very regressive in its impact, disproportionately affecting the city’s most disadvantaged residents. Most gun violence victims and suspects were African American men, more often than not having had some prior encounter with the criminal justice system.

Compared to other cities, a larger share of homicide suspects in Chicago consists of adolescents, although the majority of all homicide suspects are in their 20s or older. The increase in gun violence occurred disproportionately in several disadvantaged neighborhoods on the city’s South and West sides, which now account for an even larger share of the city’s homicides. Another change is that from 2015 to 2016, the share of homicides that CPD believes stemmed from an altercation, as well as the share of homicide offenders who were recorded by CPD as having a gang affiliation, seemed to decline

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“The share of homicide offenders who were recorded by CPD as having a gang affiliation, seemed to decline”

And here I was parnanoid about the tens of thousands of gang bangers infesting the city.

Further suggesting Chicagoans’ really need to look after their personal safety were these nuggets found within the report:

-“In 2016, 77 percent of gun homicides and shootings took place on the street or in an alley, up from 75 percent in 2015…”

-“Around 64 percent of homicides in 2016 were described by CPD as stemming from an altercation, down from 74 percent in 2015. Unless there was a change in how CPD recorded the circumstances of homicides from 2015 to 2016, this suggests that homicides stemming from other motivations increased more rapidly (by 121 percent) than did homicides stemming from an altercation (by 35 percent)…”

-“Individuals arrested for a homicide or shooting in Chicago in 2016 and 2015 had similar prior criminal records: around 90 percent had at least one prior arrest, approximately 50 percent had a prior arrest for a violent crime specifically, and almost 40 percent had a prior gun arrest. The average person arrested for a homicide or shooting in both years had nearly 12 prior arrests, with almost 45 percent having had more than 10 prior arrests, and almost 20 percent having had more than 20 prior arrests…”

-“The share of offenders with a current or prior gang affiliation, as noted by CPD, declined from 73 percent in 2015 to 67 percent in 2016, suggesting that individuals not affiliated with gangs may have been overrepresented among those driving the increase in violence…”

-“In 2016, Chicago police made 24 percent fewer arrests than in 2015, accelerating the steady downward trend in arrests the city has seen in recent years…”

-“Chicago police recorded over 80 percent fewer stops in January 2016 than they had in November 2015. This drop, from an average of over 50,000 stops per month in 2015 (through November) to approximately 10,000 stops per month starting in early 2016, began a few months before rates of gun violence in Chicago began to increase. What caused the decline is itself unclear. Several frequently-mentioned candidate explanations—the release of video footage showing the shooting by a CPD officer of teenager Laquan McDonald, announcement of a U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation of CPD, implementation of an agreement between the City and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) concerning street stops, and a new state law regarding street stops—all happened essentially within a few weeks of each other in late 2015 and early 2016…”

More on Chicago and personal safety later. In the meantime, head on over to the University of Chicago Crime Lab website here to read their entire report (.pdf file). It’s enlightening, to say the least.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

SCC. “The War on Cops Continues.” Second City Cop. 29 Dec. 2016. (http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-war-on-cops-comtinues.html). 18 Jan. 2017.

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Wednesday, January 18th, 2017 Crime, Government, Poverty, Preparedness, Public Safety, Self-Defense Comments Off on Chicago’s 2016 Violence, ‘Fetal’ Policing Suggests Residents Focus On Personal Safety

Al-Qaeda Chief Calls On Young Muslim Men To Attack America, Allies

On Sunday, the Daily Mail (UK) website ran two terrorism-related pieces which might be of interest to Survival And Prosperity readers. Imogen Calderwood reported:

The leader of Al-Qaeda delivered a sinister message to young Muslim men in the United States and other Western countries, encouraging them to carry out attacks in their home countries.

Terror leader Ayman al-Zawahiri makes the call to arms in an audio recording that was posted online on Sunday…

‘I call on all Muslims who can harm the countries of the crusader coalition not to hesitate,’ he said in the recording, referring to the nations making up the Western-led coalition in Iraq and Syria.

‘We must now focus on moving the war to the heart of the homes and cities of the crusader West and specifically America.’

The leader suggests Muslim youths take their inspiration from Tsarnaev and the Kouachi brothers, who carried out the Boston marathon bombings and the Charlie Hebdo shootings in Paris respectively…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Future terror attacks in the mold of Boston and Paris concern one top spy who recently retired. Keiligh Baker reported later Sunday:

The former head of MI6 has warned that it is just a matter of time before terrorists hit the West and claimed Britain would no longer be able to safeguard another massive event like the Olympics.

Sir John Sawers stepped down last year after five years as chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, a post known as ‘C’ in the service…

Today, in an interview on CNN’s Global Public Square, he said the risk of a terrorist attack hitting the West has grown substantially since he stepped down from the role

Sir John said the way terrorists carry out their heinous attacks has changed drastically since the emergence of ISIS.

‘They’re not trying to fly airliners into buildings. They’re doing simpler things,’ he said.

He cited examples such as the massacre at French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January, which saw brothers Saïd and Chérif Kouachi force their way into the building and kill 11 employees and another man, a police officer, outside the building.

He said as an intelligence service these sort of attacks are a lot harder to prevent…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Sobering reading.

I’m still convinced a major terror attack by Muslim extremists on the U.S. homeland (more complex than what was perpetrated by the Tsarnaev and Kouachi brothers) is headed our way.

Growing hatred of the United States because of our continued presence in the Middle East, poverty, continued radicalization of the young and more “moderate” Muslims, porous borders, rampant political correctness, gun “control,” and limits to our nation’s counter-terrorism capabilities all come to mind when I contemplate such an incident.

But what can someone like you or me do in the face of such danger? Is there anything that can be done?

More on that next time…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Calderwood, Imogen. “Al Qaeda leader calls on young Muslim men in the US and the West to copy Boston Bombers and Charlie Hebdo killers with more homegrown attacks.” Daily Mail. 15 Sep. 2015. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3232767/Al-Qaeda-leader-calls-young-Muslim-men-West-copy-Boston-Bombers-Charlie-Hebdo-killers-homegrown-attacks.html). 13 Sep. 2015.

Baker, Keiligh. “Terrorists WILL hit the West and UK would not be able to safeguard another Olympics, warns former MI6 chief Sir John Sawers.” Daily Mail. 13 Sep. 2015. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3232834/UK-not-safeguard-Olympics-warns-former-MI6-chief.html). 15 Sep. 2015.

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Tuesday, September 15th, 2015 Europe, Government, Gun Rights, Middle East, Political Correctness, Poverty, Religion, Terrorism, War Comments Off on Al-Qaeda Chief Calls On Young Muslim Men To Attack America, Allies

Chicago Should Prepare For Baltimore-Style Civil Unrest

Have any readers been following what’s been going on in Baltimore as it concerns the protests and riots over the death of Freddie Gray?

Do Chicago-area readers think such civil strife could happen here someday?

It’s happened before. And considering the potential flash points that currently exist (ongoing racial tension, limited economic opportunities in lower class neighborhoods, growing divide between the economic/political elite and everyone else) which could be sparked by intense financial pain as the business cycle inevitably turns down and/or some crisis, I think it could definitely happen again. I’m not the only one. Early Tuesday I was watching the WGN morning news when Corey Brooks, Senior Pastor at New Beginnings Church of Chicago, came on. The South Side reverend advised:

I’m hoping and praying that it never happens in Chicago. But it would be best if we would prepare.

“But it would be best if we would prepare”

Amen to that.


“Chicago Pastor Corey Brooks headed to Baltimore to help stand against violence”
WGN News Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Thursday, April 30th, 2015 Civil Strife, Class Warfare, Employment, Poverty, Preparedness, Recession, Wealth Comments Off on Chicago Should Prepare For Baltimore-Style Civil Unrest

Afterthoughts: Chicago’s 2015 Mayoral Election

In case you hadn’t heard, Rahm Emanuel remains Mayor of Chicago after defeating Jesús “Chuy” García yesterday in a run-off election 55.7 percent to 44.3 percent with 98.7% of precincts reporting.

Here are some of my thoughts regarding the 2015 mayoral election in Chicago:

1. The fact that “Chuy,” a Cook County commissioner who was born in Durango, Mexico, forced Mayor Emanuel into a first-ever run-off election for the position signaled two things. One, a number of Chicago voters aren’t too happy with the way the “Rahmfather” is running the city. And two, Chicago’s Hispanics continue to flex their growing political muscle. Natasha Korecki reported on the Chicago Sun-Times website back on March 15:

According to census data from 2010, Hispanics make up just shy of 29 percent of the city’s population- but they account for only 13 to 15 percent of the electorate. (Garcia’s campaign says that number was at about 16 percent on Feb. 24.)

Should trends hold, I envision Latinos making significant gains with that percentage. Korecki added:

“The Hispanic population is the fastest-growing segment of the early-childhood population,” says Chicago City Clerk Susana Mendoza, an Emanuel supporter. “Latinos make up 47 percent of students in CPS,. It’s a very significant population…

Last December, the U.S. Census Bureau forecasted that Hispanics will comprise 25 percent of the U.S. population within the next 30 years- up from approximately 17 percent right now.

At risk of sounding like “Captain Obvious” here, I’m thinking Chicago’s future will be a much more Latino one. Particularly as city government is concerned.

(Editor’s note: Back in the fall of 1988 I told my high school Spanish teacher I wanted to learn the language because I thought it would “come in handy” someday. Has it ever.)

2. After being forced into a run-off, the Rahm camp realized he’s rubbed a number of Chicagoans the wrong way. Which led to commercials like this:


“New Rahm Emanuel Ad: ‘I Can Rub People The Wrong Way’”
YouTube Video

So now that he’s won the run-off, what’s Mayor Emanuel “tune” now? Rick Pearson and Bill Ruthhart reported on the Chicago Tribune website this morning:

After finishing a salad and bowl of matzo ball soup, Emanuel was asked what he learned from the runoff and whether he would, in fact, be a more inclusive mayor in his second term.

Emanuel responded by confidently saying the feedback he’d gotten from voters during the campaign would serve as his “North Star.” Asked by the Tribune if that meant he would take a different approach to running the city, Emanuel instead deflected the question by telling the reporter: “You’ll evaluate that, and my guess is you’ll tell me on a 24-hour basis.”

Pressed again on whether he had heard the voters and would change his often brusque style, Emanuel responded with just one word:

“Yeah.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Yeah. I don’t know about you, but the impression I get from that response is- something tells me old habits might be particularly hard to break with this one.

I can’t help but wonder if dead fish aren’t already on their way…

3. Chicago’s “financial reckoning day” is still fast approaching. And I don’t think it matters who’s in charge, as I believe we’re too far along in the deterioration and the required political will to do something about it just isn’t there. Still. I read a “funny” comment on the popular Chicago police blog Second City Cop earlier today. From a Tuesday night post:

Anonymous said…

Blah blah blah. The city will not go.bankrupt. We are third in the country for tourists, we have numerous international and national companies world headquarters plus we have a 100s of millions in tif funds. Commie chuy was a police hater that had no plan for this city. Rahm ain’t no picnic either but next to chuy he was a genius.

Now consider what the National Journal’s John B. Judis reported on March 30:

Chicago is facing a truly grave set of problems– problems that are essentially more extreme versions of the challenges confronting city governments across the country.

The quandaries begin with Chicago’s dramatic social divide. To an even greater extent than is the case in, say, New York or Philadelphia, Chicago has become two entirely separate cities. One is a bustling metropolis that includes the Loop, Michigan Avenue’s Magnificent Mile, and the Gold Coast, as well as the city’s well-to-do, working-class, and upwardly mobile immigrant neighborhoods. The other Chicago consists of impoverished neighborhoods on the far South and West Sides, primarily populated by African-Americans. These places have remained beyond the reach of the city’s recovery from the Great Recession.

Meanwhile, even as it grapples with this extreme gap, Chicago is suffering from a severe fiscal crisis. Like plenty of other municipalities, Chicago lacks the revenue to pay its bills, particularly its pension obligations to city workers. According to a 2013 Pew report, 61 other U.S. cities face similar difficulties, but Chicago’s situation is one of the worst. “Voters must realize we are facing the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression,” says Roosevelt University’s Paul Green, the doyen of Chicago political experts. “If something doesn’t happen, the city is beyond the abyss.”

Those problems aren’t really Emanuel’s fault, but his efforts to fix them over the past four years haven’t yielded especially good results. For his part, Garcia—who has been at the forefront of Latino politics in Chicago for four decades and who has a history of bucking Chicago’s political establishment—has run a campaign long on general populist criticism of the incumbent, but short on credible ideas about what he would do differently.

All of which means that this election won’t yield much of a mandate for dramatic solutions to Chicago’s twin crises

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Translated: Probably doesn’t matter who won the election, because Chicago looks to “lose” with either at the helm.

Once again, the economic situation appears too far gone at this point, and the political will to truly get the city’s finances back on track just isn’t there.

I hope Judis is wrong. And I hope I’m wrong here.

But the numbers are looking pretty atrocious right now.

As much as I’d like to side with “Anonymous,” as Rahm Emanuel enters his second term as Mayor of Chicago, I feel that proverbial brick wall is still fast-approaching.

Perhaps the best Chicagoans can hope for at this point is a controlled crash landing.

I know one thing. If I were still living in the city, I’d be preparing for the coming carnage.

More on that topic soon.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Korecki, Natasha. “Getting Hispanics to the polls in Chicago mayor’s race no slam dunk for Chuy.” Chicago Sun-Times. 15 Mar. 2015. (http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/438985/getting-hispanics-polls-chicago-mayors-race-slam-dunk-chuy). 8 Apr. 2015.

Pearson, Rick and Ruthhart, Bill. “’Second chance.’ Emanuel says he’s ‘humbled’ by victory.” Chicago Tribune. 8 Apr. 2015. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-chicago-mayoral-election-20150407-story.html#page=1). 8 Apr. 2015.

SCC. “Mixed Bag.” Second City Cop. 7 Apr. 2015. (http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/2015/04/mixed-bag.html). 8 Apr. 2015.

Judis, John B. “Broken city: Rahm Emanuel and the unraveling of Chicago.” National Journal. 30 Mar. 2015. (https://www.yahoo.com/politics/broken-city-rahm-emanuel-and-the-unraveling-of-115037357316.html). 8 Apr. 2015.

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Wednesday, April 8th, 2015 Bankruptcy, Debt Crisis, Demographics, Entitlements, Government, Immigration, Population, Poverty, Recession Comments Off on Afterthoughts: Chicago’s 2015 Mayoral Election

Marc Faber, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, And Peter Schiff All Sound The Alarm

I find it both funny and disturbing that the financial types who missed the U.S. housing bubble/bust and global economic crisis that was readily-visible by the second half of 2008 are now claiming the U.S. economic “recovery” is on solid footing and there are no asset bubbles in sight.

Meanwhile, the few individuals who correctly-predicted that carnage- including Marc Faber, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff- are sounding the alarm again.

Here’s what each of these “crash prophets” have been saying lately (the following statements have all been blogged about previously on Survival And Prosperity).

Swiss-born investor and money manager Marc Faber warned CNBC Squawk Box viewers on September 19, 2014:

Today, the good news is we have a bubble in everything, everywhere– with very few exceptions. And, eventually, there will be a problem when these asset markets begin to perform poorly. The question is- what will be the catalyst? It could be a rise in interest rates not engineered by the Fed, because I think they’ll keep interests rates at zero on the Fed funds rate for a very long time… We could have essentially a break in bond markets at some point. We also could have a strong dollar. A strong dollar has already happened in the last two months signifies that international liquidity is tightening. And when that happens, usually it’s not very good for asset markets.

“A bubble in everything, everywhere.” Reminds me of what British-born investment strategist Jeremy Grantham said right before the asset bubbles popped during the “Panic of ’08.” Speaking of Grantham, he penned in his November 2014 quarterly investment letter entitled “Bubble Watch Update”:

I am still a believer that the Fed will engineer a fully-fledged bubble (S&P 500 over 2250) before a very serious decline…

My personal fond hope and expectation is still for a market that runs deep into bubble territory (which starts, as mentioned earlier, at 2250 on the S&P 500 on our data) before crashing as it always does. Hopefully by then, but depending on what the rest of the world’s equities do, our holdings of global equities will be down to 20% or less. Usually the bubble excitement – which seems inevitably to be led by U.S. markets – starts about now, entering the sweet spot of the Presidential Cycle’s year three, but occasionally, as you have probably discovered the hard way already, history can be a snare and not a help.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Fully-fledged bubble (S&P 500 over 2250) before a very serious decline…”

The S&P 500 stands at 2,058 this Sunday- only 192 points away from Grantham’s bubble “target.”

There’s also investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers, who was talking U.S. equities on RT’s Boom Bust on December 26, 2014, when he remarked:

I know the bear market will come… The next bear market, Erin, is going to be much worse than the last one because the debt has gone through the roof. Debt worldwide, including the U.S., has skyrocketed, and we’re all going to have to pay a terrible price for all this money printing and all this debt.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Finally, there’s Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff, who argued on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog on Halloween 2014:

When this illusion collapses, this fantasy of a U.S. economic recovery- because everybody believes there’s no recession anywhere in sight, that we’re years away from a U.S. recession- when in fact, another recession is right around the corner. And in fact, it will be worse than the recession that we had in 2008, 2009, if the Fed does not come in with QE 4…

I expect Janet Yellen to react to this coming recession the way Ben Bernanke reacted to the last one. The way Alan Greenspan reacted to the last one. Because that’s the only playbook we’ve got. And remember, when this recession starts, they can’t start with rate cuts. Rates are at zero. You can’t cut from zero. All they can do is revamp QE. And believe me, it’s going to have to be a lot bigger than QE 3. QE 4 is going to have to be bigger than QE 3 for the same reason QE 3 had to be bigger than QE 2- the economy builds up a tolerance. The more addicted to QE, the more QE you need to get any kind of result. And this last result was minimal in the real economy. I mean, yes- the Fed was able to get the stock market to go up, but the real economy never experienced any real economic growth. The average American is worse off today than when QE began. By far. Incomes are down. Real employment is down. Net worth is down. Poverty is up. Government dependency is up. The cost of living is up. Nothing has improved, except maybe the level of optimism on Wall Street…

This crisis is not really going to be about a credit crisis. Not private credit. It’s going to be about debt. Sovereign credit. It’s going to be about the dollar. A currency crisis. A sovereign crisis. Which is going to be very different than the crisis we had in 2008. It’s a crisis of an excess of QE. Of an overdose of QE. That’s the one that’s coming. That’s the one that we have to prepare for. That’s the one that I have been warning about since the beginning…

Schiff, who’s also a financial commentator and author, has been the most vocal of the four in warning of economic pain dead-ahead of us.

Jim Rogers talking the day after Christmas about the coming bear market alerted me to the fact that all these “crash prophets” whom I regularly-follow on this blog are now sounding the alarm at the same time. To summarize their recent warnings:

Marc Faber- “A bubble in everything, everywhere.” Actually, I believe he still likes Asia and Asian emerging economies.
Jeremy Grantham- “I am still a believer that the Fed will engineer a fully-fledged bubble (S&P 500 over 2250) before a very serious decline.”
Jim Rogers- “The next bear market… is going to be much worse than the last one because the debt has gone through the roof.”
Peter Schiff- “An overdose of QE. That’s the one that’s coming. That’s the one that we have to prepare for. That’s the one that I have been warning about since the beginning.”

At the start of 2015, it will be interesting to see how the next couple of years play out, for I believe Americans will get the chance to experience quite a bit of the above in that time period- whether they want to or not.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Sunday, January 4th, 2015 Bonds, Bubbles, Crash Prophets, Credit, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Employment, Essential Reading, Federal Reserve, Fiscal Policy, Government, Income, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Net Worth, Poverty, Recession, Recovery, Stimulus, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, And Peter Schiff All Sound The Alarm

Peter Schiff Warns Of Coming Recession, QE 4

It’s been pretty busy around here as I play catch-up on my different Internet projects. But I did get the chance last night to view the latest entry on “crash prophet” Peter Schiff’s The Schiff Report YouTube.com video blog. What is the CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital predicting these days? Another U.S. recession and QE 4. Schiff warned:

When this illusion collapses, this fantasy of a U.S. economic recovery- because everybody believes there’s no recession anywhere in sight, that we’re years away from a U.S. recession- when in fact, another recession is right around the corner. And in fact, it will be worse than the recession that we had in 2008, 2009, if the Fed does not come in with QE 4…

I expect Janet Yellen to react to this coming recession the way Ben Bernanke reacted to the last one. The way Alan Greenspan reacted to the last one. Because that’s the only playbook we’ve got. And remember, when this recession starts, they can’t start with rate cuts. Rates are at zero. You can’t cut from zero. All they can do is revamp QE. And believe me, it’s going to have to be a lot bigger than QE 3. QE 4 is going to have to be bigger than QE 3 for the same reason QE 3 had to be bigger than QE 2- the economy builds up a tolerance. The more addicted to QE, the more QE you need to get any kind of result. And this last result was minimal in the real economy. I mean, yes- the Fed was able to get the stock market to go up, but the real economy never experienced any real economic growth. The average American is worse off today than when QE began. By far. Incomes are down. Real employment is down. Net worth is down. Poverty is up. Government dependency is up. The cost of living is up. Nothing has improved, except maybe the level of optimism on Wall Street…

This crisis is not really going to be about a credit crisis. Not private credit. It’s going to be about debt. Sovereign credit. It’s going to be about the dollar. A currency crisis. A sovereign crisis. Which is going to be very different than the crisis we had in 2008. It’s a crisis of an excess of QE. Of an overdose of QE. That’s the one that’s coming. That’s the one that we have to prepare for. That’s the one that I have been warning about since the beginning…


“The Scary Truth Behind the Halloween Rally”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Wednesday, November 5th, 2014 Crash Prophets, Credit, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Employment, Federal Reserve, Income, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Net Worth, Poverty, Recession, Recovery, Stimulus, Stocks, Wall Street Comments Off on Peter Schiff Warns Of Coming Recession, QE 4

Fernando ‘FerFAL’ Aguirre’s 2005 Essay: ‘Thoughts On Urban Survival’

I first brought up Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre on Survival And Prosperity within days of launching the blog. I wrote on December 1, 2010:

Last week I mentioned that I follow a couple of blogs on a regular basis. Surviving In Argentina is one of those and is authored by an Argentine named Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre who, like Orlov, has first-hand experience of what a financial collapse looks like. In his blog, Aguirre (who has lived in the U.S.) talks about how he and his young family survived the economic crisis in Argentina and how they’re coping now. It’s a rich source of information for surviving tough times, so much so FerFAL went ahead and wrote The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse in 2009.

I have a copy of The Modern Survival Manual. I’ve found it so relevant to my circumstances (living in Chicago and now its suburbs), I’ve referred back to it on a regular basis.

FerFAL has a new survival-themed book out. From an e-mail I received from him on June 29:

Hello Everyone!

My New Book, “Bugging Out and Relocating” is now available in Amazon!!

“Bugging Out & Relocating” is the “homework” I did for leaving Argentina. Unlike many prepper books floating around these days, this is about what I actually did, picking up a couple suitcases each, leaving everything behind and moving to a country I had never set foot on before. I basically did so by doing what I explain in this book…

Bugging Out and Relocating: When Staying Put is not an Option sounds real interesting. I can’t wait to read it.

Now, did any readers know that Fernando Aguirre also published a pretty lengthy essay on urban survival back in 2005? I discovered it while reading his blog. It’s long– divided into seven parts- and chock-full of information and lessons gleaned from actual experiences. Remember, Northern Ireland-based FerFAL lived through an economic collapse in modern times. Even though I read the essay some years back, there’s one part in Thoughts on Urban Survival that still blows my mind. Aguirre wrote:

It happened 4 years ago, almost a year after the December 2001 crisis. It was a social studies class and this teacher, don’t remember if it was a he or a she, was explaining the different kinds of social pyramids. God! Now I remember more! We even had a text book with those darn, cruel pyramids! The first pyramid explained the basic society. A pyramid with two horizontal lines, dividing those on top (high social class) those in the middle (middle class) and the bottom of the pyramid (the poor, proletarian). The teacher explained that the middle of the pyramid, the middle class, acted as a cushion between the rich and the poor, taking care of the social stress. The second pyramid had a big middle section, this was the pyramid that represents 1st world countries. I which the bottom is very thin and arrows show that there is a possibility to go from low to middle class, and from middle to the top of the social pyramid. Our teacher explained that this was the classic, democratic capitalist society, and that on countries such as Europeans one, socialists, the pyramid was very similar but a little more flat, meaning that here is a big middle section, middle class, and small high and low class. There is little difference between the three of them.

The third pyramid showed the communist society. Where arrows from the low and middle class tried to reach the top but they bounced off the line. A small high society and one big low society, cushioned by a minimal middle class section of pyramid. Then we turned the page and saw the darned fourth pyramid. This one had arrows from the middle class dropping to the low, poor class.

“What is this?” Some of us asked.

The teacher looked at us. “This is us”

“It’s the collapsed country, a country that turns into 3rd world country like in pyramid five where there is almost no middle class to speak, one huge low, poor class , and a very small, very rich, top class.”

“What are those arrows that go from the middle to the bottom of the pyramid?” Someone asked.

You could hear a pin drop. “That is middle class turning into poor”.

I won’t lie, no one cried, though people rubbed their faces, held their heads and their breath.

No one cried, but we all knew at that very moment that all we thought, all we took for granted, simply was not going to happen.

“You see, the income from the middle class is not enough to function as middle class any more. Some from the top class fall to middle class, but the vast majority of the middle class turns into poor” Said the teacher.

I don’t know how many people in that room suddenly understood that he/she was poor.

The teacher continued “You see, we have a middle class that suddenly turns to poor, creating a society of basically poor people, there is no more middle class to cushion tensions any more. Middle class suddenly discovers that they are overqualified for the jobs they can find and have to settle for anything they can obtain, there for unemployment sky rockets, too much to offer, too little demand. You see they prepare, study for a job they are not going to get. You kids, you are studying Architecture because you simply wish to do so. Only 3 or 4 percent of you will actually find a job related to architecture.”

We all sat there, letting it all sink in. After a few months, it all proved to be true. Even the amount of students that dropped out of college increased to at least 50%. They either so no point in studying something that would not make much of a difference in their future salaries, had no money to keep themselves in college, or simply had to drop college to work and support their families…

Any of this strike a chord with readers? I’m guessing it might.

Anyway, check out the rest of Fernando Aguirre’s Thoughts on Urban Survival on his Surviving In Argentina blog here.

Just be sure to set aside a large block of time- or several smaller ones- to read it and take it all in.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: Link added to “Resources” page)

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Wednesday, August 6th, 2014 Essential Reading, How To, Poverty, Preparedness, South America, SP Resources, TEOTWAWKI Comments Off on Fernando ‘FerFAL’ Aguirre’s 2005 Essay: ‘Thoughts On Urban Survival’

CNNMoney Poll: 63 Percent Of Americans Believe Most U.S. Children Won’t Be Better Off Than Their Parents

Long-time readers of Survival And Prosperity might remember this bit about American kids possibly not turning out to be “better off” than their parents. I blogged on September 21, 2011:

Back in 2006 when I was working at a suburban fire department, a battalion chief came into my office, saw the local paper on my desk, and asked, “Did you read that piece about how kids these days might be the first generation who won’t be better off than their parents?” I replied, “Yeah, it was depressing.” The fire officer confided, “That stuff scares me. I’m worried they might be right about that.” I’d be concerned too, especially if I were the parent of a couple of young kids like this chief was.

I was reminded of that exchange when I read the following from Tami Luhby on the CNNMoney website yesterday:

The American Dream is impossible to achieve in this country.

So say nearly 6 in 10 people who responded to CNNMoney’s American Dream Poll, conducted by ORC International. They feel the dream — however they define it — is out of reach.

Young adults, age 18 to 34, are most likely to feel the dream is unattainable, with 63% saying it’s impossible. This age group has suffered in the wake of the Great Recession, finding it hard to get good jobs.

Younger Americans are a cause of great concern. Many respondents said they are worried about the next
generation’s ability to prosper.

Some 63% of all Americans said most children in the U.S. won’t be better off than their parents. This dour view comes despite most respondents, 54%, feeling they are better off than their own parents…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

According to Luhby, the poll came from telephone interviews with 1,003 adult Americans from May 29 to June 1, 2014.

I’m really not surprised by the findings of this survey. Besides an ugly employment picture, middle-class incomes are stagnating and the cost of living is rising (despite what the government and its shills say).

Here’s something else I mentioned in that September 2011 post. It’s from Annalyn Censky- also on the CNNMoney website:

It’s official. The first decade of the 21st century will go down in the history books as a step back for the American middle class.

Last week, the government made gloomy headlines when it released the latest census report showing the poverty rate rose to a 17-year high…

But the data also gave the first glimpse of what happened to middle-class incomes in the first decade of the millennium. While the earnings of middle-income Americans have barely budged since the mid 1970s, the new data showed that from 2000 to 2010, they actually regressed.

For American households in the middle of the pay scale, income fell to $49,445 last year, when adjusted for inflation, a level not seen since 1996.

And over the 10-year period, their income is down 7%

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Are middle-class wages still stuck in reverse today? From a September 17, 2013, post on the Free exchange blog (The Economist website):

THE Census released new figures on income and poverty today… They’re both grim and unsurprising. In 2012 the real median household income in America was flat relative to 2011 and down considerably from the pre-recession level

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

So is the American Dream impossible to achieve anymore?

I don’t think so. But I predict many of the kids today and possibly future generations will find it significantly more difficult to realize the Dream due to the self-serving and ill-advised fiscal and monetary policies carried out by the adults of the last few decades to the present time.

By incurring trillions of dollars of debt during this time period, we’ve screwed a good number of our kids and future Americans.

Here’s hoping yours won’t be employed as a servant to the Chinese or whoever the next hegemon is in the coming years…


“Chinese Professor”
YouTube Video

Sources:

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Luhby, Tami. “The American Dream is out of reach.” CNNMoney. 4 Jun. 2014. (http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/04/news/economy/american-dream/index.html). 6 June 2014.

R.A. “Stagnation for everyone.” Free exchange. 17 Sep. 2013. (http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/incomes). 6 Jun. 2014.

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Thursday, June 5th, 2014 Asia, Debt Crisis, Employment, Fiscal Policy, Government, Hegemony, Income, Main Street, Monetary Policy, Poverty, Wages, Wealth Comments Off on CNNMoney Poll: 63 Percent Of Americans Believe Most U.S. Children Won’t Be Better Off Than Their Parents

Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy Keeps Pushing For More Gun ‘Control’ Laws

Chicago Police Department Superintendent Garry McCarthy is not letting recent gun “control” setbacks for the City of Chicago blunt his constant push for more laws laws restricting firearms. CNN’s Tricia Escobedo reported this morning:

McCarthy is using the unwanted attention around the bloody Easter weekend to push legislators to pass gun control laws that he says will help police turn things around in Chicago.

“It’s just insanity that there’s such a proliferation of firearms that they’re so easy to get your hands on,” McCarthy told WGN Radio on Monday. “The studies show when there’s more restrictive gun laws, there’s less gun violence. It’s not brain surgery, it’s really really simple.

“It’s going to take us a while to fix poverty and the break-up of the family units and education and jobs. But we can do something about gun laws today and we’re just not doing it.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“The studies show when there’s more restrictive gun laws, there’s less gun violence.”

Like in “Chiraq?” “Murder City?” “Beirut By The Lake?”

For years, Chicago, Cook County, Illinois, was considered “ground zero” for gun “control” in the nation.

And look what good all that gun “control” amounted to?

516 murders in Chicago in 2012 (source: Washington Post). 9 dead, 36 wounded in the “Windy City” last weekend. 4 killed, 36 shot the weekend before that. A veritable and regularly-occurring shooting gallery in certain parts of the city. Need I say more?

I will.

Again- “The studies show when there’s more restrictive gun laws, there’s less gun violence.”

Not any reputable studies that I know of.

As I’ve repeated many times on this blog through the years- criminals don’t follow the law- hence that “criminal” designation. The bad guys generally don’t acquire their firearms legally. Therefore, gun “control” laws don’t really have an effect on them. So what good does implementing more of these laws do besides penalize law-abiding citizens and gun owners?

Oh yeah- pushing more gun “control” makes it look like the politicians and their ilk are actually doing something to combat firearm-related violence (being mostly committed by “illegal” guns).

It’s my belief that Chicago, Cook County, and Illinois would be better off coming down hard- real hard– on the criminal element with “truth-in-sentencing” and other measures. On this point, I actually see eye-to-eye with Superintendent McCarthy. But many of the politicians don’t, their inaction based on fiscal, political, and/or racial justifications, as well as a belief held by many that “thugs just need a hug.”

Until they and their loved ones become the victims of a violent crime, right?

A number of former gun “control” advocates came to “see the light” in the wake of such events.

As for more restrictions being placed on firearms? Reality, like the example of Chicago- and not studies- keep demonstrating their ineffectiveness.

“It’s not brain surgery, it’s really really simple.”

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Escobedo, Tricia. “Chicago’s murder rate is down, chief says.” CNN. 24 Apr. 2014. (http://www.kspr.com/news/nationworld/Chicago-s-murder-rate-is-down-chief-says/21051646_25636714). 24 Apr. 2014.

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Thursday, April 24th, 2014 Crime, Education, Employment, Firearms, Government, Gun Rights, Legal, Poverty, Public Safety, Self-Defense Comments Off on Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy Keeps Pushing For More Gun ‘Control’ Laws

Welfare Recipient: ‘Can You Really Blame Us? I Mean, I Get To Sit Home, I Get To Go Visit My Friends All Day, I Even Get To Smoke Weed’

“The point is these programs are not typically hammocks for people to just lie back and relax. These programs are almost always temporary means for hardworking people to stay afloat while they try to find a new job or go into school to retrain themselves for the jobs that are out there, or sometimes just to cope with a bout of bad luck. Progressives should be open to reforms that actually strengthen these programs and make them more responsive to a 21st century economy.”

-U.S. President Barack Obama, remarking on economic mobility, December 4, 2013

And then there’s “Lucy,” calling in to KLBJ radio station in Austin, Texas, in October. This alleged welfare recipient told listeners:

I just wanted to say while workers out there- people like you that are preaching morality at people like me who are living on welfare- can you really blame us? I mean, I get to sit home, I get to go visit my friends all day, I even get to smoke weed. Me, and people that I know that are illegal immigrants that don’t contribute to society- we still gonna get paid. Our checks are going to come in the mail every month, and it’s going to be on time. And we get subsidized housing. We even get presents delivered to our kids for Christmas. Why should I work?

Personally, I think there may be a lot more “Lucy’s” out there than President Obama’s remarks would have you believe.


“Welfare Recipient: ‘I Get to Sit Home… I Get to Smoke Weed… We Still Gonna Get Paid'”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Friday, December 6th, 2013 Employment, Entitlements, Government, Political Parties, Poverty Comments Off on Welfare Recipient: ‘Can You Really Blame Us? I Mean, I Get To Sit Home, I Get To Go Visit My Friends All Day, I Even Get To Smoke Weed’
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RSS Chris Hill’s Other Blog: Offshore Safe Deposit Boxes

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