It’s been a while since I’ve blogged about Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO). To be fair, the British-born investment advisor has been taking a break from his popular quarterly investment letter that’s published on the GMO website. For those of you who aren’t familiar with Mr. Grantham, he’s designated one of this blog’s “crash prophets” along with Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff due to his special talent for correctly-calling the direction of the financial markets. He so good that individual clients have included Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Grantham was the subject of a September 20 article in The Wall Street Journal in which Ian Salisbury asked him about investment-related topics, such as the depletion of natural resources on Earth. From the Q and A session:
Q: What are investors supposed to do?
A: The investment implications are, of course, own stock in the ground, own great resources, reserves of phosphorous, potash, oil, copper, tin, zinc—you name it. I’d be less enthusiastic about aluminum and iron ore just because there is so much. And I wouldn’t own coal, and I wouldn’t own tar sands. It’s hugely expensive to build coal utilities, and the plants they have to build for tar sands are massive, and before they get their money back I suspect that the price of solar and wind will have come down so much.
So I wouldn’t use that, but I think oil, the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own—and the most important of all is food. The pressures on food are worse than anything else, and therefore, what is the solution? Very good farming, which can be done. The emphasis from an investor’s point of view is on very good farmland. It’s had a big run. You can never afford to ignore price and value, but from time to time you can get good investments in farmland, and if you’re prepared to go abroad, you can do it today. I wouldn’t be too risky. I would stay with distinctly stable countries—Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, Brazil, Canada, of course, and the U.S. But I would look around, in what I call the nooks and crannies. And forestry is the same. Forestry is not a bad bargain, a little overpriced maybe, but it’s in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates that push people into investing. A wicked plot of the Federal Reserve.
Grantham also shared with Salisbury where he thought stocks were heading. Basically, not only does he think equities can go “a lot higher than this” with Fed backing, but they could even reach bubble territory.
It’s a really good, insightful interview, capped-off with a discussion about unbridled American optimism, which you can read in its entirety here on The Wall Street Journal website.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Salisbury, Ian. “Our Chat With Jeremy Grantham.” The Wall Street Journal. 20 Sep. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323665504579032934293143524.html). 24 Sep. 2013.
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Despite the price of gold getting pummeled recently, a number of the world’s central banks continue to acquire the precious metal. Sungwoo Park reported on the Bloomberg website yesterday:
The Bank of Korea added 20 metric tons in February, raising its gold reserves by 24 percent to 104.4 tons, it said in a statement today. Holdings rose about $1.03 billion by value to $4.79 billion at the end of last month, equivalent to 1.5 percent of total foreign exchange holdings, according to the statement. Prices advanced.
Russia and Kazakhstan expanded bullion reserves for a fourth straight month in January.
On February 11, I blogged that Russia is now the world’s biggest gold buyer, adding 570 metric tons of the precious metal to their holdings over the past decade.
Glenys Sim wrote on Bloomberg.com back on February 25:
Russian holdings climbed 12.2 metric tons to 970 tons last month after gaining 8.5 percent over 2012, according to International Monetary Fund data. Kazakhstan’s hoard grew 1.5 tons to 116.8 tons, following last year’s 41 percent expansion, data on the IMF website showed…
Central banks will again be strong buyers this year after they boosted purchases 17 percent to 534.6 tons last year, the most since 1964, according to the London-based World Gold Council.
The gold haters are out in full force these days. Yet, central banks keep stockpiling the yellow metal. Hmm.
Diversification? Or “something wicked this way comes?”
And there’s no shortage of stories in the American media of how poorly gold is doing. Even though it’s setting record highs in other countries. Brett Arends wrote on the MarketWatch website yesterday:
You won’t hear about it in the usual places. Everywhere you turn these days, all you hear is that gold is down, it’s finished, it’s heading for something called a “death cross,” which sounds terrifying. But away from the headlines, gold just rocketed to a new, all-time high.
In places like Argentina, Brazil, Iceland, India, and Japan.
Not bad for a “barbarous relic,” huh?
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Park, Sungwoo. “Korea Joins Russia, Kazakhstan in Boosting Gold Holdings.” Bloomberg. 6 Mar. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/bank-of-korea-boosts-gold-reserves-as-central-banks-buy.html). 6 Mar. 2013.
Sim, Glenys. “Russia, Kazakhstan Increase Bullion Reserves for Fourth Month.” Bloomberg. 25 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-25/russia-kazakhstan-expand-gold-reserves-for-fourth-month-1-.html). 6 Mar. 2013.
Arends, Brett. “The secret bull market in gold.” MarketWatch. 6 Mar. 2013. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-secret-bull-market-in-gold-2013-03-06). 6 Mar. 2013.
How many readers have heard this uttered during the latest push for more gun “control” in America?:
Americans don’t need “fast-firing” guns with “high-capacity” magazines to protect themselves. Stopping a bad guy doesn’t require all those bullets.
Such dribble often reveals two things:
1. The individual saying this watches way too much television and/or movies.
2. That person fails to comprehend that sometimes there’s more than one aggressor involved.
This last point has been made exceedingly-clear to me these past couple of years in my observations of crime “south of the border.”
Any readers remember my July 2011 post about a gang of criminals carrying out a violent home invasion against an American couple residing in Ixtapa, Mexico? Pretty graphic story, huh?
And then there’s Fernando Aguirre of Surviving In Argentina blog-fame, who has mentioned multiple incidents involving more than one aggressor in his home country of Argentina. One story in particular stands out in my mind. From his survival-themed book The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving The Economic Collapse:
I also remember a forensic doctor that used to live in my neighborhood, who got ambushed by five or six men when he exited a restaurant. They did kill him, but he managed to kill four of them and he severely wounded another.
This doctor used to practice with his Glock .40 S&W at my local shooting range. I don’t remember exactly how many rounds he fired during the attack, but I remember that it at least doubled the capacity of most revolvers.
“Home Invaders Shot in Self Defense”
(Security cameras catch armed Tucson resident thwarting home invasion)
Recently, two well-known firearm and personal defense experts- Massad Ayoob and Rob Pincus- have come out in support of semi-automatic military-pattern rifles and so-called “high-capacity” ammunition magazines. Here are some comments from them in their defense of the guns and magazines which others are so desperately trying to ban/take away:
I can certainly imagine scenarios where I would need to have a lot of rounds. I can certainly imagine scenarios where I would need to have the capability of controlling those rounds through a semi-automatic rifle where I can fire those rounds quickly and accurately. Multiple person home invasions would be an easy example that could obviously happen to any home in any part of the country.
-Rob Pincus of I.C.E. Training, in an interview published on the WND.com website on February 27, 2013
In a world where the Good People With Guns often have to deliver several hits to neutralize even one Bad Person With Deadly Weapons, and in which there is often more than one attacker, anyone applying logical thinking can only end up shouting one three-word mantra:
DO THE MATH!!
-Massad Ayoob of Massad Ayoob Group, in a January 31, 2013, post on the Massad Ayoob on Guns blog on the website of Backwoods Home magazine
The cops are the experts on the current criminal trends. If they have determined that a “high capacity” semiautomatic pistol and a .223 semiautomatic rifle with 30-round magazines are the best firearms for them to use to protect people like me and my family, they are obviously the best things for us to use to protect ourselves and our families.
-Massad Ayoob again, in a December 29, 2012, post on the Massad Ayoob on Guns blog
When it comes to firearms and self-defense, these guys know what they’re talking about.
More so than others who would have you “just fire the shotgun through the door” in an ill-advised attempt at protecting the home.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
There’s been a lot of talk recently about the dip in the gold price.
Yet, so little chatter about the world’s central banks adding to their gold reserves.
Glenys Sim reported on Bloomberg.com tonight:
Brazil boosted gold reserves for a third month in November to double the country’s holdings since August as central banks from Russia to Belarus and South Korea add the metal to diversify their assets.
Brazilian holdings expanded 14.7 metric tons in November to 67.2 tons, the most since November 2000, according to data on the International Monetary Fund’s website. The country bought 17.2 tons in October after adding 1.7 tons in September, the first increase since 2008. Russia’s holdings increased 2.9 tons last month and Belarus’s reserves expanded 1.4 tons, the data show…
In Asia, the Bank of Korea increased gold reserves 20 percent last month to diversify investments, boosting holdings for the fourth time since June 2011, according to a statement Dec. 5. Gold is a physical, safe asset, the Bank of Korea said.
According to ArabianMoney.net editor/publisher Peter Cooper on the ResourceInvestor.com news site back on December 6:
Gold buying by the global central banks will hit a new high this year of more than 500 tons up from 465 tons in 2011, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council.
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sim, Glenys. “Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves as Central Banks Buy Bullion.” Bloomberg. 20 Dec. 2012. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-21/brazil-doubles-gold-reserves-with-third-purchase-as-banks-buy.html). 20 Dec. 2012.
Coopers, Peter. “Central Bank Gold Purchases to Top 500 Tons This Year.” ResourceInvestor.com. 6 Dec. 2012. (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2012/12/06/central-bank-gold-purchases-to-top-500-tons-this-y?ref=hp). 20 Dec. 2012.
A two-fer for you this week.
1992 U.S. presidential candidate Ross Perot is back in the news. The billionaire is so concerned about the state of the nation’s finances, that according to Brendan James over at the Yahoo! News blog The Ticket this morning, Perot said in a recent USA TODAY interview:
If we are that weak, just think of who wants to come here first and take us over…
The last thing I ever want to see is our country taken over because we’re so financially weak, we can’t do anything.
Visions of Red Dawn are flooding through my mind right about now.
“Red Dawn Trailer (1984)”
And talk about an endorsement no American politician from either of the two big national parties would want to receive at this point in the election cycle. The Associated Press reported last night:
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has weighed in on the U.S. presidential race, saying he prefers President Barack Obama.
“If I were American, I’d vote for Obama,” Chavez said in a televised interview that aired Sunday.
The Venezuelan leader called Obama “a good guy” and said if the U.S. president were a Venezuelan, “I think… he’d vote for Chavez.”
I’m sure President Obama is grateful for such a glowing endorsement so close to the election.
If Hugo was really that big a fan of the U.S. president, he should have said Mitt Romney would get his vote.
James, Brendan. “America could be ‘taken over,’ warns Ross Perot.” The Ticket. 1 Oct. 2012. (http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/america-could-taken-over-warns-ross-perot-152428497.html). 1 Oct. 2012.
“Hugo Chavez says he’d vote for Obama.” Associated Press. 30 Sep. 2012. (http://news.yahoo.com/hugo-chavez-says-hed-vote-obama-172412142.html). 1 Oct. 2012.
President Barack Obama has declared the swine flu outbreak a national emergency, giving his health chief the power to let hospitals move emergency rooms offsite to speed treatment and protect noninfected patients.
The declaration, signed Friday night and announced Saturday, comes with the disease more prevalent than ever in the country…
-Associated Press, October 25, 2009
The global death toll from 2009’s H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic could be higher than initially reported. Simeon Bennett reported on the Bloomberg website yesterday:
The 2009 swine flu pandemic may have killed 15 times more people globally than reported at the time, according to the first study to estimate the death toll.
The H1N1 influenza virus probably killed about 284,500 people worldwide, compared with 18,500 deaths reported to the World Health Organization, researchers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention wrote in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases today. More than half the deaths may have been in southeast Asia and Africa, compared with 12 percent of officially reported fatalities, the authors wrote.
The H1N1 virus was reported in more than 214 countries through August 2010, when the WHO declared an end to the pandemic. It’s since become one of three seasonal flu strains circulating worldwide, causing infections mostly during the winter months.
This year, H1N1 cases have been reported in both hemispheres, and in winter and summer. Loshana K. Shagar and Embun Majid reported on the Jakarta Post (Indonesia) website on June 16:
The Influenza A(H1N1) outbreak at the National Service (NS) camp is under control, said Health Minister Liow Tiong Lai.
He said there have been no new cases since Thursday.
Ninety NS trainees at Dusun Minda National Service training camp in Kuala Nerang, Kedah, were quarantined two days ago after coming down with A(H1N1).
Sumitra Deb Roy wrote on the Times of India website earlier today:
MUMBAI: The civic authorities are insistent that H1N1 cases in the city are sporadic and nothing to worry about. But statistics suggest otherwise. While 46 positive cases of H1N1 have been reported between April and June so far, there were zero cases in Mumbai during the corresponding period last year.
Prasit Tangpraset wrote on the AsiaOne website, an online news portal belonging to Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Co., last Thursday:
Yesterday 41 persons were confirmed as infected with the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) at Nakhon Ratchasima Rajanagarindra Psychiatric Hospital in the Northeast…
Kamron Chaisiri, inspector-general of the Public Health Ministry, said the hospital found the first case on June 12 in the ward for alcoholics, who have weaker immune systems and are easily infected.
Six women and 35 men have been admitted, including six hospital staff. The patients are on the antiviral drug Tamiflu and none are severely ill.
And Latin American News Agency Prensa Latina published on its website last Friday:
The Bolivian Minister of Health and Sports, Juan Carlos Calvimontes, confirmed the record of 637 patients with influenza A (H1N1) and 2. 276 suspected cases.
According to Calvimontes epidemiological reports register five deaths, and he said that the department with more registered patients is La Paz, with more than 300 positive cases.
With all these reports coming in about H1N1 cases, here’s hoping this isn’t the beginning of another pandemic (or a “real” one, as some claim the 2009 event was a scam).
Stay healthy, my friends.
Bennett, Simeon. “Swine Flu Deaths May Have Been 15 Times Higher Than Reported.” Bloomberg. 25 June 2012. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-25/swine-flu-deaths-may-have-been-15-times-higher-than-reported.html). 26 June 2012.
Shagar, Loshana K. and Majid, Embun. “‘No new H1N1 cases’ reported at Malaysia’s Kedah NS camp.” Jakarta Post. 16 June 2012. (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/06/16/no-new-h1n1-cases-reported-malaysia-s-kedah-ns-camp.html). 26 June 2012.
Deb Roy, Sumitra. “46 H1N1 cases ‘not worrisome’: BMC.” Times of India. 26 June 2012. (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/46-H1N1-cases-not-worrisome-BMC/articleshow/14396348.cms). 26 June 2012.
Tangprasert, Prasit. “41 swine flu cases confirmed in Thailand.” AsiaOne. 21 June 2012. (http://news.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20120621-354262.html). 26 June 2012.
“Bolivia Reported 637 Confirmed Cases of Influenza A (H1N1).” Prensa Latina. 22 June 2012. (http://www.plenglish.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=519345&Itemid=1). 26 June 2012.
“Don’t cry for me Argentina.”
That song has stuck with me ever since I first heard it sung in TV commercials for the musical Evita back in the early 80s.
But these days, I can’t help but wonder if Argentinians aren’t crying for themselves.
Or if Americans will soon follow.
Those Argentines who successfully-weathered the economic collapse the South American country experienced at the end of the 90s had the following to look forward to as the next decade drew to a close. From the BBC News website on October 21, 2008:
Argentina’s President Cristina Fernandez has signed a bill that will nationalise the country’s 10 private pension funds.
The move will put the government in control of almost $30bn (£18bn) of investments and is aimed at protecting them from the global market turmoil.
Shares slumped amid fears of the move’s impact and critics accused the government of trying to grab the funds.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
History has shown that when a government assumes control of something for their citizens’ “protection,” it might be time to get concerned.
Recently, it’s been suggested those formerly-private pensions have become a giant piggy bank for the Argentine government. On April 25, 2012, the newspaper Los Andes (Argentina) reported that Argentina’s Treasury had borrowed $342 million from the state pensions agency, Anses- and issued a one-year bond in its place.
And just this afternoon, the Associated Press reported about a new “stimulus” program in Argentina that’s using these pension funds once again. From the piece:
Argentina is rolling out a major economic stimulus plan, using pension and treasury funds to provide nearly cost-free housing loans of up to $77,000 each to 400,000 people who have been closed out of private-sector borrowing.
Buenos Aires Gov. Daniel Scioli on Wednesday ordered all “non-productive” government-owned land to be made available to the program President Cristina Fernandez announced hours earlier. The vast Buenos Aires province surrounding Argentina’s capital is plagued with slums and has by far the nation’s largest population in need of housing…
Argentina’s Supreme Court also took action: Six justices signed a resolution giving the pension agency, ANSES, 30 days to explain in detail where it is spending the retirement funds. Thousands of Argentine retirees have won court rulings for unpaid pensions, but have yet to see their money.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
So as it stands right now, it sounds like Argentina’s government plans to take money from nationalized, formerly-private pensions to fund this new stimulus program- while promising to pay the borrowed money back.
Anyone think those retirees will ever get all their pesos back?
Or that a good majority of those housing loans will be repaid, for that matter?
Claims of this stimulus actually being a progressive redistribution of wealth (rich to poor) are almost certain to be made.
We’ll just have to wait and see how this all ends up.
And seriously scrutinize any suggestion to nationalize our private pensions, especially if it’s under the claim of “protection.”
“Argentina to take over pensions.” BBC News. 21 Oct. 2008. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7682877.stm). 13 June 2012.
“El Banco Nación prestará al Tesoro unos $ 12 mil millones.” Los Andes. 25 Apr. 2012. (http://www.losandes.com.ar/notas/2012/4/25/banco-nacion-prestara-tesoro-unos-millones-638373.asp). 13 June 2012.
Associated Press. “Argentina aims to ‘light fire’ to economy, using pension funds to provide generous home loans.” Washington Post. 13 June 2012. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/argentina-aims-to-light-fire-to-economy-using-pension-funds-to-provide-generous-home-loans/2012/06/13/gJQAxS4TaV_story.html). 13 June 2012.
Investment adviser and fund manager Dr. Marc Faber attended the CFA Institute’s Third Annual Middle East Investment Conference in Qatar these past two days. According to Ed Bace, the CFA’s head of education for the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) regions, “Doctor Doom” (labeled that by the press for his contrarian investment style that is often interpreted as being bearish) told conference attendees that continuing growth in Asia and South America will put further pressure on the world’s resources, thereby leading to increased geopolitical tension. As such, the Swiss-born Faber shared the following investment recommendations. Bace wrote on the conference website earlier today:
So how should investors play this situation? Faber states that diversification is key alongside low leverage. His recommendations are as follows: cash and bonds are not hugely attractive, given negative real interest rates, but equity-like corporate bonds could form 25% of a portfolio. Another 25% could be made up of stocks, especially in emerging markets, with a further 25% in precious metals (which tend to be severely underweighted in a typical pension fund). Real estate in certain areas (such as Asia) could make up the remainder. He added that US house prices are looking decidedly cheap.
Faber closed his speech by emphasizing that the crucial question over the next decade is not “where will my returns be highest?” but “where will I lose the least money?” In fact, he believes that losses of 50% should be considered as a relative success. He advised that an investment in remote farmland could pay off, as growing social tensions could make urban life intolerable. In his view the welfare state has evolved from the many helping the few to the few helping the many and that the inevitable crash, or “rebooting the computer,” will simply have to be endured. Whether this crisis occurs soon, as further credit expansion is voluntarily abandoned, or occurs later, as the currency system meets final and total catastrophe, Faber cannot predict.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
The investment in remote farmland that Dr. Faber talked about reminds me of a piece I read on The Times (UK) website back on February 22, 2010. Leo Lewis wrote in that article:
The world’s most powerful investors have been advised to buy farmland, stock up on gold and prepare for a “dirty war” by Marc Faber, the notoriously bearish market pundit, who predicted the 1987 stock market crash…
Speaking today, Dr Faber said that investors, who control billions of dollars of assets, should start considering the effects of more disruptive events than mere market volatility.
“The next war will be a dirty war,” he told fund managers: “What are you going to do when your mobile phone gets shut down or the internet stops working or the city water supplies get poisoned?”
His investment advice, which was the first keynote speech of CLSA’s annual investment forum in Tokyo, included a suggestion that fund managers buy houses in the countryside because it was more likely that violence, biological attack and other acts of a “dirty war” would happen in cities.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Sobering stuff. But I wouldn’t expect anything less from the publisher of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report.
(Editor’s notes: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein; info added to “Crash Prophets” page)
Bace, Ed. “Marc Faber: Continuing Financial Crisis Must Be Endured.” CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference. 26 Mar. 2012. (http://meic.cfainstitute.org/2012/03/26/marc-faber-continuing-financial-crisis-must-be-endured/#comment-19). 26 Mar. 2012.
Lewis, Leo. “‘Buy farmland and gold,’ advises Dr Doom.” The Times. 22 Feb. 2010. (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1191724). 26 Mar. 2012.
One last post about terrorism this week. Scott Stewart of the global intelligence company Strategic Forecasting, Inc., or STRATFOR, has authored a series of Security Weekly reports entitled “Fundamentals of Terrorism.” The first of these, “The Myth of the End of Terrorism,” was released on February 23. It’s a good, informative read, and serves as a reminder that just because major terror attacks directed against the United States and its interests haven’t been too successful lately, the threat hasn’t gone away. Reprinted with permission of STRATFOR:
The Myth of the End of Terrorism
By Scott Stewart
In this week’s Geopolitical Weekly, George Friedman discussed the geopolitical cycles that change with each generation. Frequently, especially in recent years, those geopolitical cycles have intersected with changes in the way the tactic of terrorism is employed and in the actors employing it.
The Arab terrorism that began in the 1960s resulted from the Cold War and the Soviet decision to fund, train and otherwise encourage groups in the Middle East. The Soviet Union and its Middle Eastern proxies also sponsored Marxist terrorist groups in Europe and Latin America. They even backed the Japanese Red Army terrorist group. Places like South Yemen and Libya became havens where Marxist militants of many different nationalities gathered to learn terrorist tradecraft, often instructed by personnel from the Soviet KGB or the East German Stasi and from other militants.
The Cold War also spawned al Qaeda and the broader global jihadist movement as militants flocking to fight the Soviet troops who had invaded Afghanistan were trained in camps in northern Pakistan by instructors from the CIA’s Office of Technical Services and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence directorate. Emboldened by the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, and claiming credit for the subsequent Soviet collapse, these militants decided to expand their efforts to other parts of the world.
The connection between state-sponsored terrorism and the Cold War ran so deep that when the Cold War ended with the Soviet Union’s collapse, many declared that terrorism had ended as well. I witnessed this phenomenon while serving in the counterterrorism Investigations Division of the Diplomatic Security Service (DSS) in the early 1990s. While I was in New York working as part of the interagency team investigating the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, a newly appointed assistant secretary of state abolished my office, declaring that the DSS did not need a Counterterrorism Investigations Division since terrorism was over.
Though terrorism obviously did not end when the Berlin Wall fell, the rosy sentiments to the contrary held by some at the State Department and elsewhere took away the impetus to mitigate the growing jihadist threat or to protect diplomatic facilities from it. The final report of the Crowe Commission, which was established to review the twin August 1998 bombing attacks against the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, explicitly noted this neglect of counterterrorism and security programs, as did the 9/11 Commission report.
The 9/11 terrorist attacks triggered a shift in international geopolitics by leading the United States to concentrate the full weight of its national resources on al Qaeda and its supporters. Ironically, by the time the U.S. government was able to shift its massive bureaucracy to meet the new challenge, creating huge new organizations like the Department of Homeland Security, the efforts of the existing U.S. counterterrorism apparatus had already badly crippled the core al Qaeda group. Though some of these new organizations played important roles in helping the United States cope with the fallout of its decision to invade Iraq after Afghanistan, Washington spent billions of dollars to create organizations and fund programs that in hindsight were arguably not really necessary because the threats they were designed to counter, such as al Qaeda’s nuclear briefcase bombs, did not actually exist. As George Friedman noted in the Geopolitical Weekly, the sole global superpower was badly off-balance, which caused an imbalance in the entire global system.
With the continued diminution of the jihadist threat, underscored by the May 2011 death of Osama bin Laden and the fall in Libya of the Gadhafi regime (which had long employed terrorism), once again we appear on the brink of a cyclical change in the terrorism paradigm. These events could again lead some to pronounce the death of terrorism.
Several developments last week served to demonstrate that while the perpetrators and tactics of terrorism (what Stratfor calls the “who” and the “how”) may change in response to larger geopolitical cycles, such shifts will not signal the end of terrorism itself.
The Nature of Terrorism
There are many conflicting definitions of terrorism, but for our purposes we will loosely define it as politically motivated violence against noncombatants. Many terrorist acts have a religious element to them, but that element is normally related to a larger, political goal: Both a militant anti-abortion activist seeking to end legalized abortion and a jihadist seeking to end the U.S. military presence in Iraq may act according to religious principles, but they ultimately are pursuing a political objective.
Terrorism is a tactic, one employed by a wide array of actors. There is no single creed, ethnicity, political persuasion or nationality with a monopoly on terrorism. Individuals and groups of individuals from almost every conceivable background — from late Victorian-era anarchists to Klansmen to North Korean intelligence officers — have conducted terrorist attacks. Because of the impreciseness of the term, Stratfor normally does not refer to individuals as terrorists. In addition to being a poor descriptor, “terrorist” tends to be a politically loaded term.
Traditionally, terrorism has been a tactic of the weak, i.e., those who lack the power to impose their political will through ordinary political or military means. As Carl von Clausewitz noted, war is the continuation of politics by other means; terrorism is a type of warfare, making it also politics by other means. Because it is a tactic used by the weak, terrorism generally focuses on soft, civilian targets rather than more difficult-to-attack military targets.
The type of weapon used does not define terrorism. For example, using a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device against an International Security Assistance Force firebase in Afghanistan would be considered an act of irregular warfare, but using it in an attack on a hotel in Kabul would be considered an act of terrorism. This means that militant actors can employ conventional warfare tactics, unconventional warfare tactics and terrorism during the same campaign depending on the situation.
Terrorist attacks are relatively easy to conduct if they are directed against soft targets and if the assailant is not concerned with escaping after the attack, as was the case in the Mumbai attacks in 2008. While authorities in many countries have been quite successful in foiling attacks over the past couple of years, governments simply do not have the resources to guard everything. When even police states cannot protect everything, some terrorist attacks invariably will succeed in the open societies of the West.
Terrorist attacks tend to be theatrical, exerting a strange hold over the human imagination. They often create a unique sense of terror dwarfing reactions to natural disasters many times greater in magnitude. For example, more than 227,000 people died in the 2004 Asian tsunami versus fewer than 3,000 on 9/11, yet the 9/11 attacks produced a worldwide sense of terror and a geopolitical reaction that has had a profound and unparalleled impact on world events over the past decade.
Cycles and Shifts
A number of events last week illustrate the changes happening in the terrorism realm and demonstrate that, while terrorism may change, it is not going to end.
On Feb. 17, the FBI arrested a Moroccan man near the U.S. Capitol in Washington who allegedly sought to conduct a suicide attack on the building. The suspect, Amine el Khalifi, is a clear example of the shift in the jihadist threat from one based on the al Qaeda core group to one primarily deriving from grassroots jihadists. As Stratfor has noted for several years, while these grassroots jihadists pose a more diffuse threat because they are harder for national intelligence and law enforcement agencies to focus on than hierarchical groups, the threat they pose is less severe because they generally lack the terrorist tradecraft required to conduct a large-scale attack. Because they lack such tradecraft, these grassroots militants tend to seek assistance to conduct their plots. This assistance usually involves acquiring explosives or firearms, as in the el Khalifi case, where an FBI informant posing as a jihadist leader provided the suspect with an inert suicide vest and a submachine gun prior to the suspect’s arrest.
While many in the media tend to ridicule individuals like el Khalifi as inept, it is important to remember that had he succeeded in finding a real jihadist facilitator rather than a federal informant, he could have killed many people in an attack. Richard Reid, who many people refer to as the “Kramer of al Qaeda” after the bumbling character from the television show Seinfeld, came very close to taking down a jumbo jet full of people over the Atlantic because he had been equipped and dispatched by others.
Still, the fact remains that the jihadist threat now predominantly stems from unequipped grassroots wannabes rather than teams of highly trained operatives sent to the United States from overseas, like the team that executed the 9/11 attacks. This demonstrates how the jihadist threat has diminished in recent years, a trend we expect to continue. This will allow Washington to increasingly focus attention on things other than jihadism, such as the fragmentation of Europe, the transformation of global economic production and Iran’s growing regional power. It will mark the beginning of a new geopolitical cycle.
Last week also brought us a series of events highlighting how terrorism may manifest itself in the new cycle. On Feb. 13, Israeli diplomatic vehicles in New Delhi, India, and Tbilisi, Georgia, were targeted with explosive devices. In Tbilisi, a grenade hidden under a diplomatic vehicle was discovered before it could detonate. In New Delhi, a sticky bomb placed on the back of a diplomatic vehicle wounded the wife of the Israeli defense attache as she headed to pick up her children from school.
On Feb. 14, an Iranian man was arrested after being wounded in an explosion at a rented house in Bangkok. The blast reportedly occurred as a group was preparing improvised explosive devices for use against Israeli targets in Bangkok. Two other Iranians were later arrested (one in Malaysia), and Thai authorities are seeking three more Iranian citizens, two of whom have reportedly returned to Iran, alleged to have assisted in the plot.
While these recent Iranian plots failed, they nonetheless highlight how the Iranians are using terrorism as a tactic in retaliation for attacks Israel and Israeli surrogates have conducted against individuals associated with Iran’s nuclear program.
It is also important to bear in mind as this new geopolitical cycle begins that terrorism does not just emanate from foreign governments, major subnational actors or even transnational radical ideologies like jihadism. As we saw in the July 2011 attacks in Norway conducted by Anders Breivik and in older cases involving suspects like Eric Rudolph, Timothy McVeigh and Theodore Kaczynski in the United States, native-born individuals who have a variety of grievances with the government or society can carry out terrorist attacks. Such grievances will certainly persist.
Geopolitical cycles will change, and these changes may cause a shift in who employs terrorism and how it is employed. But as a tactic, terrorism will continue no matter what the next geopolitical cycle brings.
The Myth of the End of Terrorism is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
(Editor’s note: Does not contain spoilers)
Recently, I had the opportunity to watch two movies that were about an influenza pandemic outbreak. The first one is 2011’s Contagion, starring Matt Damon, Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow (no, this isn’t The Talented Mr. Ripley), and other familiar faces including Laurence Fishburne, Elliott Gould, and Kate Winslet. From the IMDb website:
A thriller centered on the threat posed by a deadly disease and an international team of doctors contracted by the CDC to deal with the outbreak.
“Contagion (2011) Official Exclusive 1080p HD Trailer”
Now, rather than break down the movie and critique it like I would in an “On TV” series post, I won’t go spoiling it for those who haven’t seen Contagion yet. That goes for the second film as well.
My thoughts about Contagion:
Because the movie did center on an international team of doctors tackling a pandemic threat, it comes as no surprise that this was going to be a big budget production (estimated $60 million) shot all around the world (a good deal of it in the Chicagoland area) and having a sizable cast.
Speaking of the cast, the acting was good. Really good in a number of cases- but what would you expect with names like the ones above? Personally, I thought Kate Winslet was phenomenal in her role as a disease detective.
There are a number of sub-plots going on simultaneously involving the doctors, administrators, individuals, families, and so on. It’s not as confusing as it sounds, though. But with all the side stories going on and familiar Hollywood faces, Contagion started to remind me of 1970s disaster genre films like The Poseidon Adventure and The Towering Inferno.
Like the title suggest, Contagion depicts what the impact of a deadly influenza virus spreading around the world might look like in this day and age, especially in the United States. Dismal to be sure, and no one can be certain just how a modern-day killer pandemic would actually play out, but I just couldn’t shake the feeling while watching the film that what was being portrayed was sanitized. Sure, there’s plenty of illness, death, and heartbreak going on- as one would suspect. But several weeks into the outbreak utilities were still on, vehicles had fuel and were being driven, survivors looked well-fed, hygiene didn’t seem to be a problem, and society looked like it was more or less still functioning- save the large amounts of trash strewn about. The violence that one might think would erupt during such an event was hardly evident (save one scene). Even more so the preparations for protecting against such acts. Perhaps this was done intentionally to obtain the PG-13 rating the film was eventually assigned.
Overall, a good film with good acting. But I suspect that everyday life would be a whole lot grittier should a pandemic like the one portrayed in Contagion take place.
The next pandemic flick I watched was the 2010 Argentinian film Phase 7
, or Fase 7, starring Yayo Guridi, Daniel Hendler, Federico Luppi, and Jazmin Stuart (hat tip Surviving In Argentina blog). From the IMDb website:
Inside a quarantined apartment building a man must protect his pregnant wife from his new neighbors.
“Phase 7- Official US Trailer”
My thoughts about Phase 7:
Most of the film is in Spanish, so subtitles are used. As with Contagion, I watched the movie on a Netflix DVD, and the subtitles were big and clear, which worked out just fine.
Phase 7 cost 2.5 million Argentine pesos to make- or the equivalent of around $575,000 U.S. dollars. This can be attributed to the film being set mostly in a single apartment building as opposed to all over the world. Furthermore, internationally-acclaimed movie stars weren’t used, although the South American cast of Guridi, Hendler, Luppi, and Stuart proved to be just as talented and were real good in their roles.
The term “phase 7” is related to the World Health Organization’s six pandemic phases. From the WHO website:
Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
The meaning of “phase 7″ becomes more clear as the film progresses.
The movie focuses on a young Argentine couple, Coco and his pregnant wife Pipi, who live in an apartment building in Buenos Aires. An influenza pandemic strikes, and authorities quarantine everyone in the dwelling when one of the residents is suspected of having caught the virus. Isolated from the outside world, Coco, Pipi, their survivalist/conspiracy theorist neighbor Horacio, and other building residents must fend for themselves amidst internal/external threats.
Phase 7 was a real good movie. It painted a gritty picture of what bugging-in in an urban environment could look like should a killer pandemic strike- and then some. I would classify it as part-science fiction, part-horror, with a dash of humor thrown in, believe it or not. I really appreciated the John Carpenter-esque background music. There were plenty of obscenities tossed around, and seeing them spelled out in the subtitles was kind of funny. The film also got gory at times, but it wasn’t overwhelming. It ended up being given an R-rating.
Overall, I liked both Contagion and Phase 7. However, there’s no mistaking Contagion for anything other than a Hollywood production. So much so it seemed a little sanitized for what I would envision society looking like during a pandemic event of that magnitude. Phase 7 is more low-budget, but actually more believable in many ways, if that makes sense. I think Phase 7 would speak to preppers/survivalists more than Contagion.
While crude oil is hovering just above $89 as I write this, one prominent investment banking and securities firm predicts prices are headed higher over the next year. From Agence France-Presse earlier today:
Oil prices will likely rise to about $130 a barrel in the next 12 months as demand in emerging markets such as China and India make up for weak developed world growth, Goldman Sachs said Thursday…
Brent crude, which is traded in London, is expected to hit $130 a barrel in the next year, from current levels around $112, the bank said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude oil, traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, is forecast to reach $126.50 a barrel over the same period from current $88.
The AFP highlighted Goldman’s forecast for a significant disparity in growth among the developed and developing economies. From the article:
The large emerging economies of the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — are forecast to grow 7.7 percent this year and 7.9 percent in 2012.
By contrast, advanced economies are projected to expand only 1.7 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year, Goldman Sachs said.
At the end of last year, Goldman Sachs predicted the price of WTI light sweet crude oil would reach $100 by the middle of the year, and $105 by the end of 2011. WTI crude reached $101.95 by the second week of June before pulling back.
Will their end-of-the-year forecast also be realized? If so, what effect will energy prices at this level have on the stumbling U.S. recovery?
“Goldman Sachs tips oil to hit $130 in 12 months.” Agence France-Presse. 15 Sep. 2011. (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gQoL8dSpwvRmfU0tqNDVBx1tfQTA?
docId=CNG.845572e84348f2e5c01e7818573012ea.11). 15 Sep. 2011.
In college and graduate school, I was taught that the United States became an economic powerhouse in the 20th century due in part to its abandonment of isolationist tendencies for global ones. In the years following World War 2, observers credited American leadership in world affairs for the emergence of Pax Americana. However, against a backdrop of increasing economic turmoil since the beginning of the 21st century, it’s being suggested that Americans are becoming more inward-looking again, with domestic issues preoccupying their minds rather than foreign developments or threats. Focusing on recent findings of a TIME magazine/Aspen Institute poll which seem to confirm this shift in mindset, Howard LaFranchi wrote on The Christian Science Monitor website on July 3:
The poll – which finds that more than two-thirds of Americans consider the last 10 years to have been a decade of decline for America – is in sync with other surveys of American opinion in recent months. According to the poll, three-fourths of Americans say economic weakness poses a bigger danger to the US than do national security threats.
In May, a Pew Research Center poll found that majorities in every partisan group of the population – including, for the first time in the decade of 9/11, conservative Republicans – agreed with the statement that the US “should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home.”
Other recent Pew polls have found Americans’ “mind-our-own-business” thinking at its highest level since the end of the Cold War.
Significantly, one Pew poll recently found that not just average Americans, but “opinion makers” as well, increasingly favor a less assertive global role for the US – a finding that led Pew Research Center Director Andrew Kohut to dub the dawning era as one of significant transition from the nation’s post-9/11 mindset.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
LaFranchi added that policymakers in Washington D.C. are aware of this growing sentiment, and noted:
In some ways, Americans’ inward turn seems to reflect their leaders’ recent rhetoric. Last month President Obama declared, in announcing his plans for a troop drawdown in Afghanistan, “America, it is time to focus on national-building here at home.”
Also from the article:
Congress, in another isolationist turn, has started to take a knife to the next fiscal year’s proposed international affairs budget.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Obviously, those desiring that the United States continue to have a significant international presence are increasingly-concerned by such sentiment. I’m not so sure they should be. Despite isolationist yearnings, America has consistently-pursued its own interests on the world stage- often being forced to do so- since the formation of the republic. An early example of this is the confrontation with the Barbary pirates of North Africa at the beginning of the 19th century. Global involvement and intervention helped form the American superpower, and the United States will continue to play a significant role in international affairs in the coming years if only because of the scope of its influence in the post-World War 2 years. Case in point, even after the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia remained a major player on the world scene throughout the 1990s due in part to its massive military machine. Should the United States experience a breakdown on the scale of the Soviet example, the same situation might also be expected.
For the individual concerned with survival and prosperity, however, isolationism should not be a part of their vocabulary. History has shown that fortunes and lives have been made- and lost- depending on one’s opportunities overseas. I speculate in saying this lesson hasn’t been lost on the descendants of Germans of Jewish descent who survived The Holocaust. Or Argentinians who positioned some of their assets overseas before their economic crisis broke out a decade ago. Would anyone be so idiotic as to accuse these people as being “un-German” or “un-Argentinian” for their actions in light of what eventually happened? There’s always a few, I guess. My point is, in your efforts to secure survival and prosperity for yourself and loved ones, it’s probably not wise to rely solely on domestic arrangements to achieve this. Be sure to make the world your oyster, as the saying goes.
LaFranchi, Howard. “Independence Day blues? Americans sense a decline and look inward.” The Christian Science Monitor. 3 July 2011. (http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0703/Independence-Day-blues-Americans-sense-a-decline-and-look-inward). 5 July 2011.
The International Monetary Fund has told some of the world’s largest economies to implement deficit cutting plans or risk a repeat of the sovereign debt crisis that has engulfed Greece and Ireland.
The warning by the Washington-based body today came as ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut Japan’s long-term sovereign debt rating for the first time since 2002, saying Tokyo lacked a plan to deal with its debt.
The IMF said Japan, America, Brazil and many other indebted countries should agree targets for bringing borrowing under control. In an updated analysis on global debt and deficits, it said the pace of deficit reduction across the advanced economies was likely to slow this year, mainly because the US and Japan are preparing to increase their borrowing.
-The Guardian (UK), January 27
Despite all the efforts of governments and central banks around the world, the debt crisis is alive and well. As is the banking crisis. While going through my e-mails this morning I happened to come across the following from Martin Weiss, chairman of The Weiss Group (which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings) and author of The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide: Protect Your Savings, Boost Your Income, and Grow Wealthy Even in the Worst of Times. In yesterday’s issue of his Money and Markets letter Dr. Weiss wrote:
Indeed, just when Wall Street and Washington seemed to have most investors convinced that “the debt crisis is history,” a whole new series of shocks have rocked the world:
Egypt and Tunisia — supposedly models of economic stability and growth — are now prime candidates for financial defaults.
In response, Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P have hastily issued sovereign debt downgrades on both countries.
But no one — either in the U.S. or in the region — has a clue regarding the end game in the Arab world. Nearly all analysts have continually underestimated how far the upheaval can spread … how quickly governments can fall … how directly oil supplies can be crimped … and how broadly the crisis can impact the global economy.
Greece and Ireland — thought to be “saved” by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — are likely to ultimately default on their debts anyhow, according to a majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week. Meanwhile, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Italy, and other weak links in Europe are still reeling toward disasters of their own.
Several U.S. states are on the brink of financial ruin, facing $175 billion in deficits … $2.5 trillion in obligations to underfunded pension funds … and overall conditions so severe that Congress is quietly preparing new legislation to let them go bankrupt — possibly the only way out of their mess, according to the New York Times.
Hundreds of cities and towns are in worse shape, with one already- bankrupt city proposing that creditors get paid a meager five cents on the dollar.
And perhaps most ominous of all …
The IMF has just warned that the governments of the United States and Japan — the two single largest debtors on Earth — are risking a repeat of the sovereign debt crisis which engulfed Greece and Ireland.
Its reasoning: Despite endless budget debates, deficit commissions, and empty promises of “firm action,” neither country has lifted a finger to stop their debt explosions. This year …
• The U.S. is running its largest deficit of all time — nearly $1.5 trillion, according to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, while …
• Japan has let its government debt burden soar past 200 percent of GDP, permanently crippling its economy.
Clearly, the debt crisis is not over. And obviously, we are not facing just one or two isolated brushfires. There are simply too many explosions in too many different regions and sectors to ignore.
What About the Banking Crisis?
Banking troubles may not be the lead headlines right now, but that doesn’t mean U.S. banks are out of the woods.
Quite the contrary, Weiss Ratings bank analyst Gene Kirsch tells us that:
• A total of 2,667 U.S. banks and thrifts now merit a Weiss rating of D+ (weak) or lower. And according to an evaluation of our rating scale by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), any Weiss rating in that category implies the institutions could be “vulnerable” to future financial difficulties or failures — not the best place for your money, despite FDIC insurance.
• In contrast, only 899 banks and thrifts merit a Weiss rating of B+ or better, which we consider strong.
Worse, on a state-by-state basis, the vulnerabilities in the banking industry are even more apparent! Gene scrutinized the banking environment in each of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, and he found that:
1. Seven states are suffering a shockingly high rate of bank failures — 4 percent in California; 5 to 6 percent in Washington, Oregon, Georgia and Florida; over 8 percent in Arizona; and a whopping 11 percent in Nevada!
2. In 12 states, more than HALF of the banks domiciled there have a Weiss rating of D+ or lower, as follows:
3. As you can see in the table above, the banking environment in Florida and Arizona is the worst of all: If you walk into a bank or thrift domiciled in either state, the chances are better than 7 out of 10 that you’ll be dealing with an institution that’s vulnerable.
How do we know?
Our Weiss ratings are based on the data the banks themselves submit to the authorities every quarter. We weigh each bank’s capital, earnings, asset quality, and liquidity. We check their vulnerability to mortgage defaults, rising interest rates, and any major crisis we believe could impact your safety.
Since 1990, we have issued grades on a total of 1,533 banks that subsequently failed and …
• For 90 percent of those banks, we issued a clear warning to the public ONE FULL YEAR ahead of time (defined by the GAO in its study of our ratings as a Weiss rating of D+ or lower).
• On nearly all of the rest, we issued a warning or a caution flag at least a few months before the failure.
Now, in more recent times, the problems in the banking industry have gotten a lot worse. Not only have we seen more bank failures, but we also have had more BIG bank failures.
In fact, just in the last two years, 49 relatively big banks and thrifts (with $1 billion or more in assets) have failed — and Weiss Ratings has issued an advance warning on every single one.
So when we say that at least seven out of 10 banks domiciled in Florida and Arizona are vulnerable, we’re not exaggerating.
It doesn’t mean all of them will fail; many should be able to avoid failure. What it does mean is that nearly all of these banks are probably at risk.
You Ask: “If My Bank Fails, Won’t the FDIC Cover My Account up to $250,000?”
Yes. But never forget:
• The FDIC does not cover investments you may have in bank-holding companies — such as common or preferred shares, bonds, or debentures.
• The FDIC does not guarantee continuation of your interest rate, lines of credit, or other business you may have with your bank.
• And ultimately, given the state of the nation’s finances overall, don’t be surprised if future FDIC’s coverage of failed banks involves serious delays and inconveniences.
Most important, never forget that you DO have choices. As Gene points out, there ARE 899 U.S. banks and thrifts that are financially strong — with or without the FDIC.
Plus, there are also states in which vulnerable banks are rare and bank failures even rarer — such as Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, West Virginia, and even Texas…
Good luck and God bless!
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
Couldn’t have said it any better myself.
Weiss, Martin. “Shocking New Failures Possible in the U.S. and Overseas.” Money and Markets. 31 Jan. 2011. (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/shocking-new-failures-possible-in-the-u-s-and-overseas-2-42535). 1 Feb. 2011.
With energy costs up sharply, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in December, the largest increase since June 2009, the Labor Department reported Friday.
However, core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy cost inputs, rose a tame 0.1%. Core prices are considered a good indicator of underlying inflationary pressures.
-MarketWatch, January 14, 2010
Most Americans might breathe a sigh of relief when confronted with the above headline (not me- as I’ll explain later in the week), but the thought of higher inflation is starting to unsettle others around the world. From Brian Blackstone and Marcus Walker of the Wall Street Journal today:
Inflation fears—fueled by spiraling food, oil and raw material prices—are mounting around the globe, prompting the head of the European Central Bank to signal that it could raise interest rates in the future even though some countries have been weakened by the Continent’s debt crisis.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal ahead of this week’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Jean-Claude Trichet warned that inflation pressures in the euro zone must be watched closely, and urged central bankers everywhere to ensure that higher energy and food prices don’t gain a foothold in the global economy.
Mr. Trichet’s warning comes at a time when inflation concerns are mounting among investors around the world. Fast-growing emerging markets such as China and Brazil are seeing rising inflation at home, and their demand for globally traded commodities is pushing prices higher elsewhere.
While high unemployment and spare capacity are restraining underlying inflation pressures in the U.S. and elsewhere in the developed world, annual inflation in China is almost 5%—and a sizzling 9.8% economic growth rate in the fourth quarter triggered fears of more price pressures ahead. Inflation in Brazil is even higher.
With the global recovery still in its early stages, those moves could accelerate…
I have to wonder what would happen to the American “recovery” if the Fed decided to attack inflation at this point in the game. After all, “real” inflation appeared to be running north of 4% in the United States last month. But that’s something I’ll discuss later…
Blackstone, Brian and Walker, Marcus. “Global Price Fears Mount.” Wall Street Journal. 24 Jan. 2011. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703398504576099680269779402.html). 24 Jan. 2011.
Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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