Stimulus
Peter Schiff On Recovery Talk: ‘Would Have Thought People Might Have Learned Something By Now’
In his latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Peter Schiff really called out the economic Pollyannas for their talk of a real, sustainable recovery. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing crash and “Panic of ’08,” warned in yesterday’s posting:
Don’t confuse rising asset prices with a real recovery. Asset prices are rising because the Fed is artificially-stimulating the economy. And as long as the Fed is artificially-stimulating, we will never have a legitimate recovery. Stocks and real estate prices are rising for the wrong reason. They’re rising for the same reason as they were rising in 2004, 2005, 2006. And we all know how that movie ended. Well this movie is going to have an even worse ending. This is basically the same movie, only we’re making the same mistakes on a grander scale.
And it’s amazing for me to watch it, as all the people who were so clueless back in ’04, ’05, and ’06, who said that “no one could have seen this coming.” In the aftermath of the crisis in 2008 and 2009, these are the same guys that are oblivious today. And people like me who did see it coming, we’re the ones that are warning about the next crisis. And our warnings are being received with the same reaction as they were the last time around. You would have thought people might have learned something by now.
Despite all the evidence that the economic recovery is just a story- it’s wishful thinking at best, and maybe, more like propaganda- the market continues to march on.
The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital revealed that he’s been buying gold. Schiff explained:
The only reason we’re getting the rally in the stock and bond market, the only reason it’s not “the end of the world,” is because the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing precisely what I feared they would do, which is exactly why I’ve been buying gold. So the reasons to buy gold have never been greater. And I think this new-found pessimism is going to create the backdrop- the wall of worry- that can launch the market into new highs.
“Stocks rise as recovery fantasy fades, oil breaks out, potential bottom in gold & silver”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Former High-Ranking Treasury Official: Fed Ordered Attack On Gold
Speaking of manipulating the price of gold, there’s been a good deal of suspicion that the yellow metal has come under deliberate attack.
It doesn’t come as a surprise to me that some might think this, considering the following:
• A number of Federal Reserve officials keep blabbing on about how the central bank might dial back quantitative easing soon, helping to shore up the U.S. dollar when they do this while subsequently detracting from gold’s allure
• The seemingly-reformed financial news media (accused of being stock market cheerleaders in the 90s and early 2000s) has bared their true colors and have savaged gold with a barrage of negative press. Of course they fail to mention that “gold is still up by more than 400 percent from the lows in 1999, whereas the S&P is barely up 2 percent from their highs in 2000,” as Marc Faber reminded Yahoo! Finance viewers this morning.
• Then there’s that huge disconnect between the “paper” gold market- where traders are supposedly running for the hills- and the “physical” gold market, where buyers are paying significant premiums over spot to acquire tangible gold and dealers are describing current demand as being a buying frenzy, not seeing anything like this in years- even decades.
Enter Paul Craig Roberts, chairman of the Florida-based Institute for Political Economy. Roberts is a former associate editor and columnist for the Wall Street Journal who President Reagan appointed as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy.
Roberts thinks the Federal Reserve has been orchestrating an attack on gold.
He wrote on the Institute’s website this past Saturday:
On Friday, April 12, 2013, short sales of gold hit the New York market in an amount estimated to have been somewhere between 124 and 400 tons of gold. This enormous and unprecedented sale implies an illegal conspiracy of sellers intent on rigging the market or action by the Federal Reserve through its agents, the BTBF that are the bullion banks.
The enormous sales of naked shorts drove down the gold price, triggering stop-loss orders and margin calls. The attack continued on Monday, April 15, and has continued since.
Before going further, note that there are position limits imposed on the number of contracts that traders can sell at one time. The 124 tons figure would have required 14 traders with no open interest on the exchange to sell all together in the same few minutes 40,000 futures contracts. The likelihood of so many traders deciding to short at the same moment at the maximum permitted is not believable. This was an attack ordered by the Federal Reserve, which is why there is no investigation of the illegality.
Note also that no seller that wanted out of a position would give himself a low price by dumping an enormous amount all at once unless the goal was not profit but to smash the bullion price.
Since the April 12-15 attack on the gold price, subsequent attacks have occurred at 2pm Hong Kong time and 2 am New York time. At this time activity is light, waiting on London to begin operating. As William S.Kaye has observed, no entity concerned about profits would choose this time to sell 20,000 to 30,000 futures contracts, but this is what has been happening.
Who can be unconcerned with losing money in this way? Only a central bank that can print it.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Roberts isn’t the only one accusing the Fed of ordering an attack on gold. Back on April 29 I started off a post with the following April 17 statement from Ambrose Evans-Prtichard, international business editor over at The Telegraph (UK):
My view is that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan ‘caused’ the gold crash. The rest is noise…
The world is still in a contained depression. Sliding commodities tell us global money is if anything too tight. ‘There is a threat of deflation almost everywhere. A lot of central banks will have to follow the Bank of Japan, whatever they say now,’ said Lars Christensen form Danske Bank.
The era of money printing is young yet. Gold will have its day again.
You can read the entire Roberts’ piece on the Institute for Political Economy’s website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
CNBC Tries Calling Out Peter Schiff Over Gold Price
Anyone remember those “Peter Schiff Was Right” YouTube.com videos that went viral right after the U.S. housing bubble popped and the global economic crisis really reared its ugly head in the fall of 2008?
Here’s probably the most popular one out there.
Well, I’m convinced a clip or more of Thursday’s installment of the CNBC show Futures Now, hosted by CNBC Reporter Jackie DeAngelis, will be included in a future “Peter Schiff Was Right About Gold” YouTube video. From an exchange between DeAngelis and the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital:
SCHIFF: You’re talking about investors’ demand for gold going down. I would disagree. Because I own a gold company too, Euro Pacific Precious Metals. And we’ve never had more demand from our clients in the history of my company than we have now. I would say speculators, speculative demand, is what went down. I think a lot of people who came late to the gold rally were speculating in gold. They were simply buying it because the price was rising. They wanted to hop on that train. They use ETFs. They use futures markets. So I think the speculators have been flushed from the market in this pullback. But the investors- they’re still there. Because all of the reasons they’ve been buying gold for the past 10 or 12 years- those reasons have never been stronger. And so investor demand continues. We’ve flushed away the speculative demand. But I think the speculators will come back in the next rally.
DEANGELIS: Alright. Well, Peter, let’s step back for a second because you kind of jumped in there on the conversation we were having and I definitely appreciate your opinion on that. But I want to talk about the gold price that we’re looking at right now. $1,383.60. That is the price that we’re looking at at this point. We’ve had you on the show multiple times before, you said that gold was going to skyrocket, you say it’s going to be a bumpy ride and you can’t tell us exactly how we’re going to get there. But tell me today, Peter, why have you gotten it wrong?
(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)
SCHIFF: I don’t think I have gotten it wrong. You just said I said it would be a bumpy ride. Look, it’s been bumpy, but I’ve been on this ride since gold was under $300 an ounce. It’s not like gold is down from that point. It’s off its highs. But I think what’s going on right now is you’ve got a false narrative out there that the U.S. economy is improving. It’s not. All the data points have been negative. A deluge of negative data came out today. The only evidence of a rebounding economy, is the stock market going up, or the real estate market going up. But that’s not because the economy is sound. That’s because of all the cheap money created by the Fed. That’s the same reason why stock and real estate prices were going up in 2006 or 2007. It is a bubble. The economy, meanwhile, is actually getting worse. And all this talk about the Fed getting ready to take away the punch bowl is all talk. They’re going to spike it even more. They’re going to up the size of QE. But people who are speculating of an early end are getting it wrong. Gold is going through a correction. All bull markets have a correction. It is a buying opportunity.
“Schiff: Gold a Generational Buy”
CNBC Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff Warns Of ‘Phony Jobs In A Phony Economy’
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.”
-U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 3, 2013
Peter Schiff, the CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital who correctly called the U.S. housing bust and “Panic of ’08,” was critical of the latest U.S. jobs report in his latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. Schiff pointed out:
The fact of the matter is, all of the jobs that were created, the reason they were created was because of QE. QE is the only reason we’re creating these jobs. And if the Fed ever were to taper it back, the jobs would disappear. As a matter of fact, the Fed is going to have to up the size of the QE to sustain these jobs. Just like with any drug, you develop a tolerance. And so the more you use, the more you have to use. So we’re going to need ever-increasing doses of QE to maintain these phony jobs.
Meanwhile, the data itself, was not even good.
(Editor’s note: Schiff’s look of disgust after saying this= priceless)
I mean, sure, it beat expectations. Because the bar had been lowered so much. It only created 165,000 jobs. All of those jobs were in the service sector. We didn’t create one manufacturing job. Zero. So we’re not creating the jobs that make us richer. We’re creating the jobs that are actually going to drain our wealth because we’re borrowing money to create them…
The bottom line is the media is going to cover this- the unemployment rate has gone down to 7.5 percent. It’s like a four-year low. We’re creating jobs. They’re going to say that things are getting better. They’re not. They’re not getting better, they’re getting worse. Government statistics don’t tell the whole story. In many cases, they tell the wrong story. And eventually, of course, when the music does stop, these jobs are going to disappear. Along with the phony economic growth that went along with it. One way or another, it’s going to happen.
“Jobs And Stocks — Behind The Numbers Lurks A Bubble Disguised As A Recovery”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Peter Schiff On GDP Calculation ‘Makeover,’ Delaying Our ‘Day Of Reckoning,’ And Gold Speculators
Lots of catching up going on around here today. I just got finished watching Peter Schiff’s latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital zeroed-in on the “makeover” in calculating U.S. gross domestic product, delaying our “financial reckoning day,” and the situation small speculators may find themselves in after helping fuel gold’s price drop the other week. Regarding GDP, Schiff pointed out the following in yesterday’s video blog post:
When the government gets around to delivering the news for the second quarter, the U.S. economy is going to be quite a bit larger than it was during the fourth quarter. Now, it’s not going to be because we’re actually more productive, it’s because the government is going to launch a brand new methodology for computing the GDP. They’re going to change the way they’ve been doing it all these years. And they’re going to start to include a bunch of things that in the past, they never included. They’re going to include things that no other country includes when they calculate their GDP. And as a result of this makeover, these brand new additions, I think instantaneously the U.S. economy is going to be 3 percent larger. That’s a big number. It’s like 4 or 500 billion dollars of GDP is going to be conjured out of thin air just based on the change in the methodology for computating GDP.
You know, this is what the government does. They change the way they compute statistics. Unemployment’s too high? Okay, we’ll calculate it another way. Now it’s not as high. Inflation’s too high? Wait a minute, let’s find another way to calculate the inflation rate. Oh look, we’ve solved the inflation problem- there’s not that much inflation.
Now, the government wants the economy to appear bigger. Why? Well, because it makes the debt-to-GDP look smaller. A lot of people are talking about debt-to-GDP now. Well, if they can make the GDP larger by figuring out another way to calculate it, well now they can make that ratio appear better.
Also, people are talking about government spending as a share of GDP. Okay, let’s make the GDP larger, and that means that government spending has now come down as a share of this larger number.
Schiff, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust and “Panic of ’08,” had this to say about the coming U.S. financial crash:
The fact of the matter is, governments are borrowing too much, they’re printing too much, they’re spending too much, and it’s all in a vain attempt to try to artificially stimulate an economy that’s been overstimulated, and to delay the “day of reckoning.” And the problem is, the longer they delay it, the more we have to reckon with. And, ultimately, we’ve going to have to pay a huge price for the fact that we didn’t deal with these problems sooner, rather than later.
“Slow ‘growth’,GDP makeover, Keynesians demand more debt and inflation”
YouTube Video
Finally, Schiff, who’s also the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, talked about gold’s recent price drop, who he thought was behind it, and what may be in store for them. From the video post:
I think the major selling in the metals market has come from the small speculator that trades on the futures market, that trades on the ETF. That’s where all the selling has been. The small speculators. I don’t think the larger investors have cashed in. They’re probably holding on. And the real buyers, the buyers in the physical market- who are not just trying to jump on a moving train to try and catch a small move because they want to get in on something that’s going up- the physical demand has been ongoing and consistent for years. But you have had some of the “Johnny Come Lately” hot money among smaller speculators. They’ve jumped on, they’re the ones that have sold, they cashed out. In fact, I think you have a lot of small speculators that are now short gold, that sold into the lows, and that are holding onto these positions with losses. And we’ll see how long they can hold those losses as the price moves higher and we turn up the heat. I think a lot of those people that were quick to short the market are going to end up covering at much higher prices.
Good insights as usual from this “crash prophet.”
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Nouriel Roubini Warns Stocks Could Correct
Another “Dr. Doom” is talking of a stock market correction these days.
Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, spoke with CNBC Europe from Lake Como, Italy, last Friday. The former Treasury official in the Clinton administration, who correctly-called the 2008 global financial crisis, talked about the U.S. economy and larger financial system. “Dr. Doom” told viewers don’t expect quantitative easing to go away anytime soon:
Increasingly QE has less effects really on the economy. There is some credit creation right now. There is a positive and so on. But certainly it is becoming ineffective. The trouble is if you take away QE very fast you could have a significant back up in long rates, and that’s going to essentially kill the recovery in its tracks. Therefore, the Fed has no choice but maintaining QE3 for as far as I can see.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
In addition, the professor of economics at NYU warned of a possible correction in stocks later this year:
Down the stream, second half of the year, the U.S. stock market could correct somehow.
“Roubini Warns on US Economy”
YouTube Video
Definitely more subdued than the other “Doctor Dooms”- Marc Faber and Peter Schiff- on the near-term prospects for the U.S. economy and financial markets.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Wall Street Legend Stanley Druckenmiller Warns Stock Market Rally Coming To End, Financial Storm Coming
Well-known investor Stanley Druckenmiller is warning these days that not only is the stock market rally coming to an end, but that a financial crash is fast-approaching. For those of you not familiar with Druckenmiller, from the Forbes magazine website:
• Started Duquesne Capital Management in 1980 with $1 million. Closed down $12 billion hedge fund in 2010 “and returned investors’ money, citing frustration with his inability to deliver high returns.”
• Hired by legendary investor George Soros in 1988 and together the two reportedly made $1 billion in a day by shorting the British pound in 1992
• Went back to running Duquesne in 2000, which reportedly made money for its clients during the 2008 global economic crisis
• His estimated net worth in March 2013: $2.8 billon
Yesterday morning, Druckenmiller appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box. Discussing the recent performance of equities, he told viewers:
You’ve got a great supply-and-demand situation for stocks right now. But, I’d analogize it to the hamster on the wheel. It was easy to know when QE1 and QE2 were going to end. This thing will probably end, even though I think QE is going to go on forever just because all the lobster are about to get in the pot. And maybe we’re in the 7th or 8th inning. But, they’re going to get boiled at some point. But right now, supply-and-demand looks great.
“Druckenmiller: Don’t Know When, But It Will End”
CNBC Video
Last Friday, Druckenmiller sat down with Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television’s Market Makers. He warned viewers of an approaching financial “storm,” stating:
Currently, Stephanie, I see a storm coming. Maybe bigger than the storm we had in 2008 to 2010… The basic story is, the demographic bubble I was looking at way back in ‘94 that started in 2011. We are right at the first ramp-up of this thing…
Something remarkable has occurred since 1994 until now, which is entitlement spending. Or let me say transfer payments, to be a little more correct. Transfer payments which were 28 percent in ‘60. And were 50 percent when we were in the budget mess in ’94. Lo and behold, they’ve gone up to 67 percent of government outlays. But, they haven’t gone up because of demographics. They’ve gone up because the seniors have a very, very powerful lobby. They keep getting more and more transfer payments from the youth. But the demographic storm is just starting now…
So, what’s going to happen, we now have a working popular of- this is how entitlements work- where the current workforce is paying for the benefits of the seniors. Since 2000, we’ve have about 4.5 to 4.8 workers for every retiree. By 2050, that number will drop to 2.4 workers per retiree. Another catchy way of saying it is that by 2030, the average population of the United States is going to be older than the average Floridian right now.
Druckenmiller later said that he’s not out to bash senior citizens, but instead:
What I’m against is current seniors stealing from future seniors.
“Druckenmiller: I See Storm Coming, Bigger Than 2008”
Bloomberg TV Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Peter Schiff: ‘Gold Bears Are Making Much Ado About Nothing’
There’s been quite a bit of talk these past couple of years about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy due to an economic recovery finally arriving that I’m going to have to agree with “crash prophet” and Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on this.
The Fed is bluffing.
Unless Fed officials are now starting to worry that growing their balance sheet is not in their best interest anymore.
Schiff, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis, wrote in the March issue of his Gold Letter that was published Friday:
Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: “We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off.” What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed’s unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.
Growing rumors last month of a potential “tightening” of monetary policy – seemingly confirmed by the Fed minutes released on Feb. 20th – have spooked the precious metals markets, leading to a 5.8% correction in gold and 10.2% in silver.
However, these fears are preposterous on two counts…
You can read the entire article (“The Fed’s Tightening Pipe Dream”) on the Euro Pacific Precious Metals website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
U.S. Economy Grew Only 0.1 Percent Last Quarter
Since the following economic news wasn’t being talked about too much in the mainstream media Thursday, I thought I’d share it here. From the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis website:
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2012 (second estimate)Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP declined 0.1 percent. The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision from the advance to second estimate of 0.5 percentage point. While today’s release has revised the direction of change in real GDP, the general picture of the economy for the fourth quarter remains largely the same as what was presented last month (for more information, see “Revisions” on page 3).
All that government intervention, all that stimulus, all that new debt. To which I say:
“Keepin’ your head above water…”
You can read the entire news release on the BEA webpage here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Gold Price Forecasts Gone Schitzo
Seeing that gold prices are somewhat schizophrenic these days, I thought I’d surf the Internet to see what some of the “big” financial institutions are predicting concerning the direction the precious metal might take. I found there to be no shortage of gold price forecasts out there. From the MarketWatch blog The Tell on Tuesday:
Goldman slashed its three-month gold-price forecast to $1,615 an ounce from $1,825, its six-month forecast to $1,600 an ounce from $1,805 and its 12-month forecast to $1,550 an ounce from $1,800…
Also on Monday, a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report said the larger bull trend for gold remains intact. “From the perspective of contrarian opinion analysis, a bottom and bullish turn in gold is close at hand.”
And Morgan Stanley said gold prices are “nearing the bottom of their trading range of US$1,540/oz to US$1,800/oz.”
At UBS, analyst Julien Garren said a major gold rally is coming in the third quarter.
Last week, though, Citi was talking price hibernation for gold, as news that George Soros and another big hedge fund were backing off gold.
There’s also this from Bloomberg on the Taipei Times (Taiwan) website yesterday:
An inevitable unwinding of gold’s 12-year bull market has begun, Credit Suisse Group AG said on Thursday in a report.
Geez. Even these forecasts are all over the place.
As far as I can tell, the underlying fundamentals behind gold’s generally steady rise are still intact. The world’s central banks have the printing presses going at full speed in what some are calling a new global currency war. And just this Tuesday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reaffirmed his support for the central bank’s $85 billion bond-buying program, or what’s come to be known as QE4.
Yep, the yellow metal still has some glimmer left to it it seems
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sources:
“Gold forecast melee: Goldman joins in, slashes forecast to $1,550.” The Tell. 26 Feb. 2013. (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/26/gold-forecast-melee-goldman-joins-in-slashes-forecast-to-1550/). 27 Feb. 2013.
“Gold’s price cycle likely to have turned: analysts.” Bloomberg. 27 Feb. 2013. (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2013/02/27/2003555794). 27 Feb. 2013.
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