Stimulus

Treasury Department Issues Reminder About Debt Limit Deal Expiration

“They are going to be in a crisis within weeks. The debt ceiling was suspended arbitrarily until March 15. When it comes back into effect there will be $20 trillion of debt. And before they can do anything on all of this stimulus they’re talking about they’re going to have to raise the debt ceiling and where are the votes going to come from? It’s going to make 2011, if you remember the debt ceiling crisis in 2011, look like a Sunday school picnic. We’re in bad shape.”

-David Stockman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan, speaking on the FOX Business Channel on January 25, 2017

Last Wednesday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued the following reminder about the March 15 expiration of the debt limit deal reached two years ago. From a press release on their website:

The debt limit places a limitation on the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and other payments. The debt limit does not authorize new spending commitments. It simply allows the government to finance existing legal obligations that Congresses and presidents of both parties have made in the past.

The Bipartisan Budget Act suspended the debt limit through March 15, 2017. If Congress fails to increase or further suspend the debt limit by March 15, Treasury can take certain extraordinary measures to continue to finance the government on a temporary basis.

Extraordinary measures will allow the government to continue to meet its obligations for a period of time after March 15. That said, it is impossible to provide a precise forecast as to how long the extraordinary measures will last. Treasury will provide greater clarity at a later date regarding how long extraordinary measures will allow Treasury to continue to borrow…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

So how is this setting up for the next couple of weeks?

According to MarketWatch’s Greg Robb on on February 1:

During the Obama administration, Republicans in Congress sought to use the debt limit vote to force spending cuts.

Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin said he would like to see Congress act to raise the debt limit “sooner rather than later.”

But Trump’s choice to head the Office of Management and Budget, Mick Mulvaney, was a leader of the House Republican effort to use the debt limit vote as a lever to reign in spending…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Stay tuned folks…

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Robb, Greg. “Raising the debt ceiling is now Trump’s problem. MarketWatch. 1 Feb. 2017. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/raising-the-debt-ceiling-is-now-trumps-problem-2017-02-01). 7 Feb. 2017.

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Tuesday, February 7th, 2017 Debt Crisis, Fiscal Policy, Government, Political Parties, Spending, Stimulus Comments Off on Treasury Department Issues Reminder About Debt Limit Deal Expiration

Reagan Budget Director David Stockman: ‘We Are Heading Into An Absolute Fiscal Bloodbath’

I’ m pretty sure I’ve never brought up David Stockman before on this blog, but what he’s warning about the nation’s finances is worth mentioning tonight. Stockman is a former two-term Congressman from Michigan, Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan, Wall Street veteran, and author. On Wednesday, he appeared on the FOX Business Channel show Mornings with Maria and talked about President Trump and the national debt. Stockman warned viewers:

We are heading into an absolute fiscal bloodbath. As the CBO put out yesterday, there’s $10 trillion of more debt built into the next decade, even before one dime of tax cuts from Trump or infrastructure spending or increasing defense like he wants to. And so what I suggest is that we have an even more absurd fiscal proposition from Donald Trump today than we did back in 1981 when we tried to cut taxes, increase defense substantially, and balance the budget. They are going to be in a crisis within weeks. The debt ceiling was suspended arbitrarily until March 15. When it comes back into effect there will be $20 trillion of debt. And before they can do anything on all of this stimulus they’re talking about they’re going to have to raise the debt ceiling and where are the votes going to come from? It’s going to make 2011, if you remember the debt ceiling crisis in 2011, look like a Sunday school picnic. We’re in bad shape.


“David Stockman: We are heading into an absolute fiscal bloodbath”
FOX Business Channel Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Friday, January 27th, 2017 Debt Crisis, Fiscal Policy, Infrastructure, Military, Political Parties, Spending, Stimulus, Taxes Comments Off on Reagan Budget Director David Stockman: ‘We Are Heading Into An Absolute Fiscal Bloodbath’

James Rickards: ‘Fed Will Have To Go Dovish’ And Bonds, Gold Will Rally

Back on December 27, James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one… I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

On January 12, James Rickards elaborated on this forecast on The Daily Reckoning website. He informed readers of “Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal”:

My short-term expectation is the Fed will raise rates in March. My intermediate-term expectation is that the market is going to be disappointed with the stimulus, the Fed tightening is going to be at the wrong time, the stock market’s going to “fall out of bed,” the economy’s going to slow down, and the Fed will have to go dovish.

At that point you’re going to see rallies in bonds, rallies in gold, and a decline in the stock market…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Rickards, James. “Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal.” The Daily Reckoning. 12 Jan. 2017. (https://dailyreckoning.com/be-prepared-violent-fed-reversal/). 23 Jan. 2017.

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Tuesday, January 24th, 2017 Bonds, Crash Prophets, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Precious Metals, Recession, Stimulus, Stocks Comments Off on James Rickards: ‘Fed Will Have To Go Dovish’ And Bonds, Gold Will Rally

Inflation Rises At Fastest Pace In 5 Years

It’s been some time since a Survival And Prosperity post focused on inflation.

I suspect I’ll be blogging about it more in the coming months.

Jeffry Bartash wrote on MarketWatch this morning:

Inflation rose in 2016 at the fastest pace in five years, as rising rents and medical care and higher gas prices put a squeeze on consumers.

The consumer price index jumped 0.3% in December, the government said Wednesday…

A string of sharp gains since late summer helped drive up inflation by 2.1% for the full year, marking the biggest increase since a 3% gain in 2011

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Bartash added:

For now it doesn’t look like inflation will wane soon. Gas prices rose again in January and many economists predict that aggressive stimulative measures by the new Trump administration could lead to even higher inflation

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Jeffrey Sparshott added over on The Wall Street Journal website late this afternoon:

The latest figures- driven in part by an uptick in energy prices- suggest a four-year stretch of historically low inflation could be ending

While details remain uncertain, the president-elect has pledge lower taxes and more infrastructure spending. That could lead to faster economic growth and accelerating inflation

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

As to what this might mean for interest rates, Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke to the Commonwealth Club of California this afternoon. Ann Saphir reported on the Retuers website:

With the U.S. economy close to full employment and inflation headed toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal, it “makes sense” for the U.S. central bank to gradually lift interest rates, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday…

The Fed chief said that she and other Fed policymakers expected the central bank to lift its key benchmark short-term rate “a few times a year” through 2019, putting it near the long-term sustainable rate of 3 percent

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Bartash, Jeffry. “Inflation climbs at fastest pace in 5 years, CPI shows.” MarketWatch. 18 Jan. 2017. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-climbs-in-2016-at-fastest-pace-in-5-years-cpi-shows-2017-01-18). 18 Jan. 2017.

Sparshott, Jeffrey. “U.S. Inflation Gauge Tops 2%, Supporting Fed’s Plan to Raise Rates.” The Wall Street Journal. 18 Jan. 2017. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-consumer-prices-up-2-1-in-december-from-year-earlier-1484746534). 18 Jan. 2017.

Saphir, Ann. “Fed’s Yellen says ‘make sense’ to gradually raise interest rates.” Reuters. 18 Jan. 2017. (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKBN1522VH). 18 Jan. 2017.

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Wednesday, January 18th, 2017 Commodities, Employment, Energy, Federal Reserve, Government, Health, Housing, Inflation, Infrastructure, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Stimulus, Taxes Comments Off on Inflation Rises At Fastest Pace In 5 Years

Jim Rickards: ‘We’re Going To Go Into A Recession Or The Stock Market Is Going To Have A Very Severe Correction’

Marc Faber isn’t the only “crash prophet” who realizes the financial environment U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could inherit is significantly different than what Ronald Reagan encountered in 1981. Back on December 5 I blogged about James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author, who was on RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) the prior week informing listeners of the following:

Less regulation, lower taxes, and a lot more infrastructure spending. This was Ronald Reagan’s playbook. This is what Ronald Reagan did in 1981 with a lot of success. But there are big differences, reasons to believe Trump will not be as successful. Namely because when Reagan came in, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio- the amount of debt relative to our economy- was 35 percent. Today it’s almost 105 percent. Reagan had inflation of 20 percent. Trump has it close to zero. In other words, Reagan had a lot of tailwinds– inflation had to come down, interest rates had to come down, he had fiscal space to run up the debt. Trump has headwinds

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last Tuesday, Rickards appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one Martin. I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

CNBC anchor Martin Soong asked his guest, “What is it going to take to cause these two outcomes- what’s the trigger going to be?” Rickards replied:

First of all, it’s already happening. There’s basically a head-long collision coming between perception and reality. So what’s the perception? The market’s rising on the Trump reflation trade. So, Trump wants to cut taxes. Steve Bannon’s talking to his advisors about a trillion dollars of infrastructure spending, cutting regulations. So all these things are viewed to be highly stimulative. So that’s why the market’s going up… But with the Fed, they’re thinking of two things. Number one, they believe in the Phillips Curve… With unemployment at 4.6 percent and that kind of stimulus coming, they know monetary policy acts with a lag- they want to get out ahead of inflation. So they’re on track to raise rates. By the way, they want to raise them anyway independent of this because they’ve got to raise them so they can cut them in the next recession. So the Fed’s on track to raise. The market expects stimulus. But here’s the point. The stimulus is not going to come. Congress has already said tax cuts have to be revenue neutral- that’s going to take away the stimulative effect. They’re going to balk at more spending. We have $20 trillion of debt. A 104 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. So we’re not going to get this trillion dollars of spending. And we’re in the eighth year of an expansion Martin. Keynesian stimulus- if it works at all, it works at the beginning of an expansion or in a recession. Not after 8 years. You don’t get much bang for the buck.


“Fed to reverse course by year-end: Expert”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, January 3rd, 2017 Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Government, Inflation, Infrastructure, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Recession, Spending, Stimulus, Stocks, Taxes Comments Off on Jim Rickards: ‘We’re Going To Go Into A Recession Or The Stock Market Is Going To Have A Very Severe Correction’

Peter Schiff Predicts Gold ‘Going A Lot Higher’ As Trump Fed Draws From ‘Well Of QE’

In a post yesterday about Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber, I noted that the the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report reportedly told atendees at a recent investment conference that the U.S. economy “is not doing well” and that he predicted U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will be a “Keynesian” and money printer. This reminded me of an appearance last week by fellow “crash prophet” Peter Schiff on the CNBC TV program Futures Now in which the economist, financial broker/dealer, and author talked about a Federal Reserve under a Trump administration. Schiff warned viewers:

I think they’re going to go back to the same monetary stimulus that failed and is the reason that Donald Trump was elected. A lot of people believe that simply electing Donald Trump solves all the economic problems that are the reason that he was elected. But the problems haven’t been solved and they can’t be solved unless we’re willing to bite the bullet and allow a painful economic restructuring that is going to be necessary to pave the way for real economic growth. But I still think we’re going to go back to the “well of QE.” And that we’re going to get more stimulus. We’re going to get another quantitative easing. And I still believe that the Fed might reverse course and start cutting rates again, even as inflation accelerates…


“Huge bond bear market just beginning”
CNBC Video

The CEO of Euro Pacific Capital mentioned earlier in the segment that “inflation is accelerating at a much faster pace than the Fed is nudging up interest rates.” Within such an environment, gold could shine. Schiff added:

Gold benefits from inflation. The only way that you might undermine gold with inflation is if you have a Paul Volcker-style reaction from the Fed where they agressively raise interest rates to try and restrain it. And that’s not even conceivable that we could do that due to the enormity of the debt that we have. So if people understand that yes, we’re going to get more inflation, but there’s nothing the Fed can do about it but make the problem worse, then people see that there’s a lot of reasons to be buying gold. And certainly 1,200 has acted as pretty solid support. So the fact that we pulled back from 1,320-1,330 on the eve of the Trump victory back down to this support I think provides a good buying opportunity for people to buy more gold. Because I do think it’s going a lot higher during the Trump presidency.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Thursday, December 1st, 2016 Commodities, Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Federal Reserve, Government, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Stimulus Comments Off on Peter Schiff Predicts Gold ‘Going A Lot Higher’ As Trump Fed Draws From ‘Well Of QE’

Peter Schiff Sees ‘Enormous Round Of Quantitative Easing’ Ahead For U.S.

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, just published a new entry to his Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast vlog on YouTube.com. Schiff talked about what’s behind the recent take-off in precious metal prices. From last Friday:

What’s really behind the metals rise is not what’s happening in Europe, but I believe what’s going to be happening here in the United States, because I believe the Federal Reserve is going to use the turmoil in the markets that followed that [“Brexit”] vote as the excuse that it’s been waiting for, not only not to raise rates, but to cut rates and to launch QE 4. In fact, that is the main reason, I believe, that the markets have recovered somewhat from their Brexit-related losses. Because if you look at the financial markets, they are now pricing in for the first time a higher probability that the next move by the Federal Reserve will be to cut rates, not to raise them. Now remember, I’ve been saying this the whole time. Ever since the Federal Reserve raised rates in December I was saying the likelihood was that the next move would be a cut and not another increase…

As we continue to get more weak economic data that continues to surprise all the bulls who are expecting strong data, it’s not going to be long before the talk of rate hikes is really replaced first by the talk of rate cuts, and then by actual cuts. And of course since there’s not a lot of room for the Fed to cut rates because it never really raised them, the real monetary stimulus is going to come from an enormous round of quantitative easing

The reason there was such a violent reaction in the financial markets to Brexit wasn’t because Brexit is so terrible, it just shows you how precarious the global financial system is. It’s all perched upon these props of cheap money and central banking. It’s all based on hype and hope and confidence. And when something shakes the confidence, you see the immediate result. The central bankers are going to do everything they can to keep this bubble from deflating. And that means more money printing not only here but around the world. And all the naysayers, all the guys that were saying “Oh, Peter Schiff was wrong,” “The Fed was right,” “Bernanke was right- he was the hero,” “Paul Krugman was right- there is no inflation.” All the people who had these premature victory laps are going to have a lot of egg on their face. But in the meantime, there isn’t a lot of time left for people to buy gold and silver while there are still people foolish enough to sell it

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Silver Confirms Gold’s Breakout”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, July 5th, 2016 Banking, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Stimulus Comments Off on Peter Schiff Sees ‘Enormous Round Of Quantitative Easing’ Ahead For U.S.

Marc Faber: ‘I Think Before The Year End We’ll Have Some Form Of QE 4 In The U.S.’

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the phone with the FOX Business Network this morning. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report discussed additional intervention by the world’s central banks in the wake of the “Brexit” vote and more quantitative easing in the United States. “Doctor Doom,” as the financial news media likes to call him, told viewers:

Regarding the confidence, I’m not so sure, because if you look at the performance of Treasury bonds, they would indicate that there is a sense that the economy’s weakening and that there are problems in the financial system. Also if you look at the performance of European bank stocks, they are horrible performers. So the confidence coming back- I’m not sure. But clearly Brexit means more money printing by central banks. They will continue to intervene. And I think before the year end we’ll have some form of QE4 in the U.S…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Marc Faber: Brexit means more money printing by central banks”
FOX Business Network Video

On the spectre of recession, Dr. Faber added:

I think the problem will be if there are no additional QEs around the world- not just in the U.S. but around the world- is that asset prices will no longer go up and we’ve seen this already in London properties, in New York properties- and this will have a negative impact on the economy. The recession in my view is not going to come from really the economy per se, but from asset price deflation

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, July 5th, 2016 Banking, Bonds, Crash Prophets, Deflation, Europe, Government, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Recession, Stimulus, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber: ‘I Think Before The Year End We’ll Have Some Form Of QE 4 In The U.S.’

Peter Schiff: Obama, Fed Presided Over Phony Recovery, Sees ‘Major, Major Currency Crisis’ Coming

This past weekend, Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, uploaded a new video to The Schiff Report on YouTube.com. Schiff, who correctly-called last decade’s housing crash and recent global economic crisis, noted that it had been a while since he released an entry to this vlog. As such, Schiff talked about a number of subjects. He advised viewers:

I think that we’re already in recession. It’s just that the Fed hasn’t acknowledged it yet. And one of the reasons that Janet Yellen is so reluctant to come clean and acknowledge how weak the economy is because number one, it undercuts President Obama, who’s going around the world claiming the United States has the strongest economy in the world when we’re, in fact, in recession. Even Europe is growing faster than the United States. Yet somehow President Obama wants to claim credit for saving the U.S. economy and producing all this non-existent growth. While the Federal Reserve doesn’t want to peddle fiction, in the words of President Obama. So it doesn’t want to basically undercut his message of an economic recovery by acknowledging that it’s over. And for the same reason the Fed doesn’t want to take the wind out of Hillary Clinton’s sails, because she wants to sail into the White House based on the prosperity that was supposedly created by President Obama. So Janet Yellen doesn’t want to undercut her message because she wants to run on four more years. And the Fed can’t admit that we’re back in recession. And also the Federal Reserve has already claimed credit for success. They want to pretend that their monetary policies created this real recovery. They don’t want to acknowledge it ended. So they have their own credibility on the line. They want to pretend that the economy is still recovering…

Meanwhile, I think it’s the United States that’s going to launch a whole new round of easing. I think they’re going to be lowering interest rates back to zero and launching QE 4. The only unknown is whether they’re going to do it before or after the election. And it depends on how quickly the economy or the markets unravel, because Yellen would rather have to come to the rescue of the economy before the election, because admitting that it needs rescuing is going to be a problem for Hillary Clinton and it’s going to help Donald Trump. And I know Janet Yellen does not want to see Donald Trump as the next President. So that is the fine line that she is trying to walk. Whether she admits the economy is weak enough and needs stimulus, or whether she puts the stimulus anyway because it’s so weak she’s worried about the economy being too deep in a recession when voters go to the polls. And in that case, the Federal Reserve simply has to come up with some kind of excuse to try and blame things on the global economy. But the problem is, the situation is already turning around in the global economy. The real problem in the global economy is the United States.

And if you look at the action in the markets, people are just starting to figure this out. But it’s still kind of like a deer in the headlight moment. I think a lot of traders, a lot of people who are managing money on Wall Street. They’ve been getting beaten up this year. A lot of the big players are losing a lot of money because they are positioned for the wrong outcome. Everybody has believed this narrative of a legitimate recovery, where the Federal Reserve will be normalizing interest rates. I’ve known all along that that was a farce. That the economy hadn’t recovered. That the Federal Reserve had in fact prevented a recovery. That the U.S. economy is actually in worse shape now than it was in 2008. So rather than a recovery, we actually got sicker. We just covered up some of the symptoms. But we have exacerbated all of the problems. And President Obama- he’s hasn’t presided over a recovery at all. He’s presided over a bigger bubble than his predecessor. And in fact, the economic disaster that awaits his successor, is going to be much bigger than the disaster he inherited from George Bush. And he spent the entire last eight years of his presidency blaming everything bad on Bush, and claiming that he got us out of that mess. Well, the reality is, he has gotten us into a much bigger mess. And whoever succeeds him is going to have to deal with it. It will be interesting though if its ends up being Hillary Clinton. Is she going to still blame the disaster on Bush, and just forget about the eight years of Obama, and try and blame the recession she is going to inherit as some kind of leftover, residual recession from the Bush years? As if President Obama had actually nothing to do with it, when his policies simply exacerbated all the problems. He just double-downed on the failed policies of Bush. But then he added a lot of other policies that were even worse. And that is why this so-called recovery has been the weakest recovery that we have ever had. And, in fact, if the truth were known. If the numbers weren’t cooked by artificially-low inflation rates, we would have a much weaker recovery or we’d have no recovery at all. But the people who are voting for Bernie Sanders or voting for Donald Trump- they are living in this recession. This phony recovery that President Obama and the Federal Reserve want to take credit for.

Schiff hasn’t deviated from his long-held belief of a coming dollar crisis. He warned viewers:

This is going to be a major, major currency crisis. And unfortunately, the currency crisis/economic crisis that’s coming- maybe it’ll start before Obama leaves office, just like the financial crisis blew up on the last year of the Bush administration. Or maybe it will be an inaugural present for Donald Trump or for Hillary Clinton. But this crisis that’s coming is going to be much worse, much worse, on an order of magnitude, kind of like a Richter scale-worse, than the financial crisis of 2008. Because the combination of bad fiscal policy and bad monetary policy, particularly monetary policy but also things like ObamaCare- all the things that the Federal Reserve and the federal government have done over the last seven or eight years have made the problem so much worse. Meanwhile, the debt has gotten so much bigger. The leverage has gotten so much bigger. The number of players, the financial markets, are so much more out-of-whack based on a false expectation of what is likely to happen. I mean, this is worse- these are bigger imbalances than we had leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Fewer people are prepared for what’s going to happen. And when it does, it’s going to be a major economic upheaval, much worse than what we had in ’08 from the perspective of the average American… When you have a currency crisis, when the dollar is collapsing, when the cost of living is going up, and then people start to lose these part-time jobs- you lose your job and the cost of living goes up. This is going to be much worse.


“Gold and Currency Markets Expose U.S. Recovery Myth”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, May 3rd, 2016 Bailouts, Bubbles, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Employment, Europe, Federal Reserve, Fiscal Policy, Government, Inflation, Interest Rates, Main Street, Monetary Policy, Political Parties, Recession, Recovery, Stimulus, Wall Street Comments Off on Peter Schiff: Obama, Fed Presided Over Phony Recovery, Sees ‘Major, Major Currency Crisis’ Coming

Project Prepper, Part 45: Top 3 Threat Priorities

“As a result of my research and this blog, I’m now aware of the myriad of man-made and naturally-occurring threats to my life and lifestyle (and those of my loved ones), and think it’s probably wise to acquaint myself more with ‘prepping’ via a sustained ‘hands-on’ program of learning and doing, which I’ll call ‘Project Prepper.’

Through a series of posts on this blog which I suspect should last for quite some time (years?), I’ll be able to share my preparedness experiences with you…”

Survival And Prosperity, “Project Prepper, Part 1: It Begins,” October 24, 2012

This week’s “Project Prepper” post is going to be a little different. While I’m currently working on a number of projects related to fulfilling seven “innate survival needs” (hat tip Jack Spirko @ The Survival Podcast):

1. Physical Security
2. Financial Security
3. Water
4. Food
5. Sanitation and Health
6. Energy
7. Shelter

Today I’m going to talk about threat priorities. As a forty-something homeowner residing with my girlfriend in the suburbs of Chicago, Illinois, in 2016, “I’m now aware of the myriad of man-made and naturally-occurring threats to my life and lifestyle (and those of my loved ones).” Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know I blog about them frequently. But from my vantage point, here are the “top 3” I’m mostly concerned about:

1. Severe Weather
2. Financial Crisis
3. Terrorism

Concerning severe weather, here in the Chicagoland area residents have to contend with spring and summer storms that can consist of high winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes. Winter can bring along with it ice storms (not too often), significant snowfall/blizzards, and brutally-cold temperatures. Consequently, structural damage, utility outages, hazardous travel conditions, and other threats to life and property accompany such events.

Case in point, prior to my girlfriend and I moving into our house in 2013, a large part of the Chicago metro area suffered significant damage from a “derecho” (widespread, long-lived wind storm) event that left many area homeowners without electricity for several days. A real nuisance for most of those affected, but potentially deadly to those with serious health issues- like my elderly father. And in case readers think I’m talking about those far-off “suburbs” of Chicago here (I remember one real estate agent referring to Rochelle- approximately 80 miles west of Chicago- as a “western suburb” during the housing boom last decade), these extended outages were taking place in near “North Shore” enclaves. I remember watching one furious Northbrook homeowner being interviewed on the local televised news, saying how he had been without power for a number of days and couldn’t understand why it hadn’t been restored yet considering the high taxes he paid to live in such a nice area. Anyway, severe weather tops the list for me. Not as “sexy”- as some would say- as preparing for the “Zombie apocalypse,” but oh well.

Financial crisis. Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity and its predecessor know I’ve been on the lookout for coming “tough times” for some years now. From this blog’s “About” page:

Back in 2004 when SP’s creator/editor Christopher Hill was surveying the economic and investment landscape in support of his own investing activities, he concluded from his own research that the United States was heading towards a financial crash. Deciding that this was something other Americans might want to know about, Mr. Hill launched the independent financial blog Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog on Wall Street,” on Memorial Day Weekend 2007 with the purpose of warning and educating others about the approaching U.S. economic crash. He has been credited with calling last decade’s housing bubble and subsequent bust, the 2008 global economic crisis, and the “Great Recession” as a result of his work on this project. Chris wrote over 1,500 posts on Boom2Bust.com during its nearly three-year run, with many of these picked up and republished on the web sites of The Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, Fox News, Reuters, USA Today, the Chicago Sun-Times group, the Austin-American Statesman, the Palm Beach Post, and the West Orlando News, among other media outlets. Chris was also interviewed for a May 2009 MSNBC.com article as a result of his work with the blog.

Since Memorial Day Weekend 2007, I’ve stood by and watched as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and subprime mortgage crisis was quickly followed by carnage on Wall Street in the autumn of 2008 and a “Great Recession.” I also observed how the Washington politicians and the Fed responded by “papering up” the mess with massive government and central bank intervention. But as everyone knows, you can only “kick the can down the road” so far. And my concern is that the road is rapidly coming to an end. Visit this blog often enough and you might get that sense as well.

Consequently, I’ve come to believe that the U.S. financial crash I still see headed our way won’t be like an airplane that suffers a sudden, catastrophic failure and plummets back to Earth like a rock. Rather, taking into account the abilities of the federal government and central bank to keep the aircraft aloft for quite some time, the crash may be more akin to a slow- yet-unavoidable descent into the ground. At which point, Americans might be left pondering what had happened to them, just like Argentines did after their economy crapped out in the early 2000s after prosperous times.

Making matters worse is the fact that I still reside in Cook County and Illinois, whose financial troubles are well-publicized. While I’ve left Chicago, I still haven’t made Wisconsin my permanent home address.

When the “balloon goes up” locally and nationally, I suspect everyday living is going to get particularly gritty around these parts.

As terrorism is concerned, post-9/11 I found myself working in the public safety field. As part of my duties at a local fire department, I catalogued potential terrorist targets in the area in the hunt for money to upgrade the agency’s response capabilities. It was my belief that the threat was real then, and it remains so today. Even more so in 2016, as U.S. border security is quite suspect at a time when those who would wish to harm the “homeland” continually make their operational capabilities and future desires for wreaking death and destruction known.


“Border Patrol Admits US Citizenship Doesn’t Matter”
YouTube Video

Like I’ve repeatedly said before on this blog, I believe it’s only a matter of time before the United States suffers terror attacks possibly resembling what occurred in Beslan (Russia) in 2004, Mumbai (India) in 2008, and more recently in Paris and Brussels. And a terrorist strike rivaling or even surpassing the carnage of September 11, 2011, is not out of the question as far as I’m concerned. New jihadists continue to replace their fallen predecessors in this “War on Terror,” and the religious duty of killing “infidels” remains the same. On May 6, 2011, I wrote:

In 2005, Dr. Paul L. Williams, a journalist and author, published the book The Al-Qaeda Connection, in which he discussed plans for a future nuclear terrorist strike, dubbed “American Hiroshima.” He wrote:

Bin Laden asserts that he must kill four million Americans- two million of whom must be children- in order to achieve parity for a litany of “wrongs” committed against the Muslim people by the United States of America. The “wrongs” include the establishment and occupation of military bases between the holy cities of Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia, the support of Israel and the suppression of the Palestinian people, the Persian Gulf War and the subsequent economic sanctions, and the invasions of Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

These days, the Islamic State has stolen the headlines from Al-Qaeda and other Muslim extremists. But such religious fanaticism as a whole remains a top concern for me.

Severe weather, financial crisis, and terrorism are natural and man-made threats that register the most on my radar. But this doesn’t mean I discount other potential dangers to life and property either (pandemic, severe space weather, and war would probably be the next three on the list). As such, an “all-hazards” approach is emphasized in my “Project Prepper” activities.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Survival And Prosperity
Est. 2010, Chicagoland, USA
Christopher E. Hill, Editor

Successor to Boom2Bust.com
"The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street"
(Memorial Day Weekend 2007-2010)

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RSS Chris Hill’s Other Blog: Offshore Safe Deposit Boxes

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