Stimulus

Project Prepper, Part 45: Top 3 Threat Priorities

“As a result of my research and this blog, I’m now aware of the myriad of man-made and naturally-occurring threats to my life and lifestyle (and those of my loved ones), and think it’s probably wise to acquaint myself more with ‘prepping’ via a sustained ‘hands-on’ program of learning and doing, which I’ll call ‘Project Prepper.’

Through a series of posts on this blog which I suspect should last for quite some time (years?), I’ll be able to share my preparedness experiences with you…”

Survival And Prosperity, “Project Prepper, Part 1: It Begins,” October 24, 2012

This week’s “Project Prepper” post is going to be a little different. While I’m currently working on a number of projects related to fulfilling seven “innate survival needs” (hat tip Jack Spirko @ The Survival Podcast):

1. Physical Security
2. Financial Security
3. Water
4. Food
5. Sanitation and Health
6. Energy
7. Shelter

Today I’m going to talk about threat priorities. As a forty-something homeowner residing with my girlfriend in the suburbs of Chicago, Illinois, in 2016, “I’m now aware of the myriad of man-made and naturally-occurring threats to my life and lifestyle (and those of my loved ones).” Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know I blog about them frequently. But from my vantage point, here are the “top 3” I’m mostly concerned about:

1. Severe Weather
2. Financial Crisis
3. Terrorism

Concerning severe weather, here in the Chicagoland area residents have to contend with spring and summer storms that can consist of high winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes. Winter can bring along with it ice storms (not too often), significant snowfall/blizzards, and brutally-cold temperatures. Consequently, structural damage, utility outages, hazardous travel conditions, and other threats to life and property accompany such events.

Case in point, prior to my girlfriend and I moving into our house in 2013, a large part of the Chicago metro area suffered significant damage from a “derecho” (widespread, long-lived wind storm) event that left many area homeowners without electricity for several days. A real nuisance for most of those affected, but potentially deadly to those with serious health issues- like my elderly father. And in case readers think I’m talking about those far-off “suburbs” of Chicago here (I remember one real estate agent referring to Rochelle- approximately 80 miles west of Chicago- as a “western suburb” during the housing boom last decade), these extended outages were taking place in near “North Shore” enclaves. I remember watching one furious Northbrook homeowner being interviewed on the local televised news, saying how he had been without power for a number of days and couldn’t understand why it hadn’t been restored yet considering the high taxes he paid to live in such a nice area. Anyway, severe weather tops the list for me. Not as “sexy”- as some would say- as preparing for the “Zombie apocalypse,” but oh well.

Financial crisis. Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity and its predecessor know I’ve been on the lookout for coming “tough times” for some years now. From this blog’s “About” page:

Back in 2004 when SP’s creator/editor Christopher Hill was surveying the economic and investment landscape in support of his own investing activities, he concluded from his own research that the United States was heading towards a financial crash. Deciding that this was something other Americans might want to know about, Mr. Hill launched the independent financial blog Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog on Wall Street,” on Memorial Day Weekend 2007 with the purpose of warning and educating others about the approaching U.S. economic crash. He has been credited with calling last decade’s housing bubble and subsequent bust, the 2008 global economic crisis, and the “Great Recession” as a result of his work on this project. Chris wrote over 1,500 posts on Boom2Bust.com during its nearly three-year run, with many of these picked up and republished on the web sites of The Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, Fox News, Reuters, USA Today, the Chicago Sun-Times group, the Austin-American Statesman, the Palm Beach Post, and the West Orlando News, among other media outlets. Chris was also interviewed for a May 2009 MSNBC.com article as a result of his work with the blog.

Since Memorial Day Weekend 2007, I’ve stood by and watched as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and subprime mortgage crisis was quickly followed by carnage on Wall Street in the autumn of 2008 and a “Great Recession.” I also observed how the Washington politicians and the Fed responded by “papering up” the mess with massive government and central bank intervention. But as everyone knows, you can only “kick the can down the road” so far. And my concern is that the road is rapidly coming to an end. Visit this blog often enough and you might get that sense as well.

Consequently, I’ve come to believe that the U.S. financial crash I still see headed our way won’t be like an airplane that suffers a sudden, catastrophic failure and plummets back to Earth like a rock. Rather, taking into account the abilities of the federal government and central bank to keep the aircraft aloft for quite some time, the crash may be more akin to a slow- yet-unavoidable descent into the ground. At which point, Americans might be left pondering what had happened to them, just like Argentines did after their economy crapped out in the early 2000s after prosperous times.

Making matters worse is the fact that I still reside in Cook County and Illinois, whose financial troubles are well-publicized. While I’ve left Chicago, I still haven’t made Wisconsin my permanent home address.

When the “balloon goes up” locally and nationally, I suspect everyday living is going to get particularly gritty around these parts.

As terrorism is concerned, post-9/11 I found myself working in the public safety field. As part of my duties at a local fire department, I catalogued potential terrorist targets in the area in the hunt for money to upgrade the agency’s response capabilities. It was my belief that the threat was real then, and it remains so today. Even more so in 2016, as U.S. border security is quite suspect at a time when those who would wish to harm the “homeland” continually make their operational capabilities and future desires for wreaking death and destruction known.


“Border Patrol Admits US Citizenship Doesn’t Matter”
YouTube Video

Like I’ve repeatedly said before on this blog, I believe it’s only a matter of time before the United States suffers terror attacks possibly resembling what occurred in Beslan (Russia) in 2004, Mumbai (India) in 2008, and more recently in Paris and Brussels. And a terrorist strike rivaling or even surpassing the carnage of September 11, 2011, is not out of the question as far as I’m concerned. New jihadists continue to replace their fallen predecessors in this “War on Terror,” and the religious duty of killing “infidels” remains the same. On May 6, 2011, I wrote:

In 2005, Dr. Paul L. Williams, a journalist and author, published the book The Al-Qaeda Connection, in which he discussed plans for a future nuclear terrorist strike, dubbed “American Hiroshima.” He wrote:

Bin Laden asserts that he must kill four million Americans- two million of whom must be children- in order to achieve parity for a litany of “wrongs” committed against the Muslim people by the United States of America. The “wrongs” include the establishment and occupation of military bases between the holy cities of Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia, the support of Israel and the suppression of the Palestinian people, the Persian Gulf War and the subsequent economic sanctions, and the invasions of Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

These days, the Islamic State has stolen the headlines from Al-Qaeda and other Muslim extremists. But such religious fanaticism as a whole remains a top concern for me.

Severe weather, financial crisis, and terrorism are natural and man-made threats that register the most on my radar. But this doesn’t mean I discount other potential dangers to life and property either (pandemic, severe space weather, and war would probably be the next three on the list). As such, an “all-hazards” approach is emphasized in my “Project Prepper” activities.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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GoldSilver.com’s Mike Maloney On Stocks: ‘This Is Probably Going To Be The Top Of The Market Just Before The Greatest Crash In History’

Speaking of stocks, one “crash prophet” who I haven’t checked in on for a while is Mike Maloney, a precious metals expert, advisor, and author who runs California-based GoldSilver.com (specializing in the instruction of precious metals investing and providing world-class gold/silver dealer services). Late Monday night I watched a video he published on March 29 about where he thought the U.S. stock market was at and where he predicted it was heading. Maloney told viewers:

I just wanted to ask the really big question- have the stock markets topped and has a crash already begun? And if it is a crash, how bad will it be? And here’s some of the evidence that I was looking at…


“Stock Market Crash: Is The Top In? Mike Maloney”
YouTube Video

Maloney eventually concluded:

We’ve created something called a classic dome top. And when you look back in history, this is probably going to be the top of the market just before the greatest crash in history. That’s where I believe that we are

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Not surprisingly, Maloney thinks precious metals will perform well in such a scenario.

Disturbing stuff. But Maloney (as usual) makes a strong case for his forecast.

However, I can’t help but wonder if QE 4 or its equivalent isn’t already warming up in the bullpen to keep asset prices aloft or even send them higher at least until the November election is done and another Democrat is in the White House.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on information found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. Christopher E. Hill, the creator/Editor of this blog, is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented on the site.)

Maloney’s revised (9/15) precious metals investing book…

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Peter Schiff: ‘Phony’ Recovery ‘Another Federal Reserve Bubble Just Like The One That Popped In 2008

The CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, appeared on CNBC TV earlier Wednesday. Schiff, who correctly-called last decade’s housing crash and recent global economic crisis, talked to Rick Santelli in Chicago about the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and the U.S. economy. From their exchange:

SANTELLI: On April 1, you wrote a letter- you normally write lots of pieces- called “April Fool’s In March.” And there was a quote in there I have to read and the best way to get into it is just to read it. “It may be impossible to underestimate the gullibility of professional Fed watchers.” Why did you write that? What does it mean?
SCHIFF: Well, because remember in March you had people talking about the possibility of April being a live meeting, and everybody talking about whether or not the Fed was going to raise rates. All this is part of their bluff. It’s a charade. They really can’t raise rates because they don’t want to put too many holes in this bubble. Because this recovery was never real. It’s phony. It’s another Federal Reserve bubble just like the one that popped in 2008. Only this one is even bigger. And I think what we really should be talking about is not when the Fed is going to hike rates, but when they’re going to admit the economy is much weaker than they’ve been pretending, when are they going to cut rates, and when are they going to launch QE 4.


“Santelli Exchange: Fed ‘stimulus trap’”
CNBC Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Rich Dad Author Robert Kiyosaki: 2016 Market Meltdown ‘Right On Schedule’

The last time I blogged about Robert Kiyosaki, the American entrepreneur, educator, investor, and author of The New York Times best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad talked about precious metals in a January 27, 2016, GoldSeek.com Radio interview. From his exchange with host Chris Waltzek:

WALTZEK: People taking a longer-term perspective, picking up some precious metals. You get that diversification. You can sleep a little more soundly at night. And you also know that you’re getting silver at 66 percent off, gold 40-45 percent off the highs. So where’s the risk there?
KIYOSAKI: The risk is not having it. And that’s why I’m laughing about Saturday Night Live and I can’t tell Fox from Saturday Night Live because those guys are a bunch of cartoons up there now. And those are the guys you’re going to count on for your economy? Give me a break. I mean, right now I trust in gold and I trust in silver. I don’t trust the stock market. I don’t trust the Fed. I don’t trust our leaders. I don’t trust the EU to not come apart. You have Puerto Rico in serious trouble. I mean how many other things have you got out there? And you look at the national debt- it’s now $20 trillion. If you want to believe Saturday Night Live characters then you just keep believing. But I’d rather have gold and silver.

The author of the recently-released Second Chance: for Your Money, Your Life and Our World also informed listeners he got out of stocks “fully” last March.

Last week, I spotted a piece about Kiyosaki on MarketWatch.com. Barbara Kollmeyer reported on March 23:

Fourteen years ago, the author of a series of popular personal-finance books predicted that 2016 would bring about the worst market crash in history, damaging the financial dreams of millions of baby boomers just as they started to depend on that money to fund retirement.

Broader U.S. stock markets are recovering from the worst 10-day start to a year on record. But Robert Kiyosaki- who made that 2016 forecast in the 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy” – says the meltdown is under way, and there’s little investors can do but buy gold or silver and hope the Federal Reserve slows the slide.

Kiyosaki is convinced: The pullback he predicted is happening.

“We’re right on schedule,” he said in a recent interview with MarketWatch…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Kollmeyer added later:

Kiyosaki told MarketWatch that the combination of demographics and global economic weakness makes the next crash inevitable — but the Fed could stave it off with another round of quantitative easing, which might stimulate the economy…

“The big question [whether] we do ‘QE4,’” said Kiyosaki. “If we do, the stock market will come roaring back, but it’s not rocket science. If we stop printing money, it crashes; if we print money, it goes up. But, eventually, it’s all going to come down.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

To combat the crash, Kiyoski still places his trust in gold and silver, among other things. From the piece:

He thinks investors should own some gold or silver, based on the view that central banks will just have to print money to get out of the next crisis and precious metals are often deployed as a perceived hedge against inflation. Some investors, meanwhile, might look for investments geared toward income, such as rent payments or dividends, rather than appreciation.

“If you know what you’re doing and are investing for cash flow, baby boomers — or any investors — may see some gains,” he said. “But for those whose wealth is tied up in the [equity] markets, it’s more like gambling than investing.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

An excellent interview of Kiyosaki by MarketWatch, which you can read in its entirety over on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘Economy May Be Entering A Period Of Stagflation’

“I think now you’re going to see big increases in consumer prices. Remember the stagflation of the 1970s. Except this is going to have a lot more stagnation and a lot more inflation. And unlike what Ronald Reagan did at the end of that decade to put out that fire, nothing like that is going to happen this time because we can’t do it. We don’t have the tools. We can’t raise interest rates to fight inflation no matter how high inflation rises because that’s how broke we are. The only things keeping our institutions afloat, including the federal government, is artificially-low interest rates. And the more debt we have, the more important those low interest rates are to maintain the illusion of solvency. So, inflation is going to keep on going up and that is going to cause a flight from the dollar…”

-Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, in a February 5, 2016, entry on The Schiff Report vlog on YouTube.com

“Stagflation.” The word sends a shiver down my spine. And while Peter Schiff’s mention of it earlier this month caught my attention, alarm bells were sounding when the “crash prophet” talked more about stagflation in his Euro Pacific Capital weekly commentary that was just released Monday. From that piece:

Many were largely caught off guard by the arrival last Friday (February 19th) of new inflation data from the Labor Department that showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) rose in January at a 2.2 % annualized rate, the highest in more than 4 years, well past the 2.0% benchmark that the Fed has supposedly been so desperately trying to reach. It was received as welcome news…

In the past I argued that even a tiny, symbolic, quarter point increase would be sufficient to prick the enormous bubble that eight years of stimulus had inflated. Early results show that I was likely right on that point. The truth is that the economy may be entering a period of “stagflation” in which very low (or even negative) growth is accompanied by rising prices. This creates terrible conditions for consumers whereby prices rise but incomes don’t. This leads to diminished living standards.

The recent uptick in inflation does not somehow invalidate all the other signs that have pointed to a rapidly decelerating economy. Just because inflation picks up does not mean that things are getting better. It actually means they are about to get a whole lot worse. Stagflation is in fact THE nightmare scenario for the Fed. If inflation catches fire now, the Fed will be completely incapable of controlling it. If a measly 25 basis point increase could inflict the kind of damage already experienced, imagine what would happen if the Fed made a real attempt to raise rates to get out in front of rising inflation? With growth already close to zero, a monetary shock of 1% or 2% rates could send us into a recession that could end up putting Donald Trump into the White House. The Fed would prefer that fantasy never become reality…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Schiff, who correctly-called last decade’s housing crash and recent global economic crisis, went on to predict a dollar collapse, accelerating consumer price increases, and the U.S. Treasury bubble bursting with this scenario. A grim outlook, which you can read in its entirety on the Euro Pacific Capital website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘I Think This Recession Is Going To Be A Greater Recession’

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, just uploaded a new entry to The Schiff Report vlog on YouTube. On February 5, Schiff told viewers:

I think the recession that we are already in- and yes, the government will eventually admit this after the fact, just like they did with the Great Recession- but I think this recession is going to be a Greater Recession. I think it’s going to be deeper and longer lasting than the last one. And I don’t think the government is going to be able to save us with a stimulus. And I think that ship has long sailed. I think when the dollar starts to tank, and when it does, I think consumer prices in the U.S. are going to go up a lot more next time than they did last time…

I think now you’re going to see big increases in consumer prices. Remember the stagflation of the 1970s. Except this is going to have a lot more stagnation and a lot more inflation. And unlike what Ronald Reagan did at the end of that decade to put out that fire, nothing like that is going to happen this time because we can’t do it. We don’t have the tools. We can’t raise interest rates to fight inflation no matter how high inflation rises because that’s how broke we are. The only things keeping our institutions afloat, including the federal government, is artificially-low interest rates. And the more debt we have, the more important those low interest rates are to maintain the illusion of solvency. So, inflation is going to keep on going up and that is going to cause a flight from the dollar…


“Weak Jobs Report Not Weak Enough For Stocks”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jeremy Grantham: ‘U.S. Market Will Rally Once Again To Become A Fully-Fledged Bubble Before It Breaks’

Last week, I blogged about the latest quarterly investment letter from “crash prophet” Jeremy Grantham, the British-born investment strategist and founder/former chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (currently oversees $104 billion in client assets). While it was an interesting read, I noted that I was a little disappointed that Grantham, whose individual clients have included former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, didn’t talk about two themes he’d brought up in recent newsletters. I wrote:

Two things I’m dying to know from Mr. Grantham right now:

1. Does he still expect “the stock market to continue to march higher in the coming year, eventually sucking in retail investors and setting up a serious decline around the time of the US elections in late 2016”?

2. Does he/GMO “still believe that bubble territory for the S&P 500 is about 2250”? The S&P was really marching towards 2,250 for a while before the index went south.

Last night, I saw that Grantham penned a piece on the Barron’s website that answered those questions (for the most part). From the article:

Looking to 2016, we can agree that uncertainties are above average. But I think the global economy and the U.S. in particular will do better than the bears believe it will because they appear to underestimate the slow-burning but huge positive of much-reduced resource prices in the U.S. and the availability of capacity both in labor and machinery. So even though I believe our trend line growth capability is only 1.5%, our spare capacity and lower input prices make 2.5% quite attainable for this year. And growth at this level would make a major market break unlikely. As discussed elsewhere, this situation feels at worst like an ordinary bear market lasting a few months and not like a major collapse. That, I think, will come later after the final ingredients of a major bubble fall into place

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Concerning the U.S. stock market, Grantham wrote:

The U.S. equity market, although not in bubble territory, is very overpriced (+50% to 60%) and the outlook for fixed income is dismal… I still believe that, with the help of the Fed and its allies, the U.S. market will rally once again to become a fully-fledged bubble before it breaks. That is, after all, the logical outcome of a Fed policy that stimulates and overestimates some more until, finally, some strut in the complicated economic structure snaps. Good luck in 2016…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In the section entitled “U.S. equity bubble update,” he added:

On the evaluation front, the market is not quite expensive enough to deserve the bubble title. We at GMO have defined a bubble as a 2-standard-deviation event (2-sigma). We believe that all great investment bubbles reached that level and market events that fell short of 2-sigma did not feel like the real thing. (In our view, 2008 was preceded by an unprecedented U.S. housing bubble – a 3-sigma event.)

Today a 2-sigma U.S. equity market would be at or around 2300 on the S&P, requiring a rally of over 20%; even from the previous record daily high it would have required an 8% rally…

On the more touchy-feely level of psychological and technical measures, the U.S. market came closer to bubble status but, still, I think, no cigar

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

So to answer my two questions from last week:

1. Grantham believes U.S. stocks will rally once again to become a bubble (no mention of “a serious decline around the time of the US elections in late 2016” though).

2. He also believes bubble-territory for the S&P 500 is no longer 2,250, but a tad higher “at or around 2,300.”

As highlighted at the bottom of the “Crash Prophets” page, Jeremy Grantham has an impressive track record with his financial forecasts:

• In 1982, said the U.S. stock market was ripe for a “major rally.” That year was the beginning of the longest bull run ever.
• In 1989, called the top of the Japanese bubble economy
• In 1991, predicted the resurgence of U.S. large cap stocks
• In 2000, correctly called the rallies in U.S. small cap and value stocks
• In January 2000, warned of an impending crash in technology stocks, which took place two months later
• Saw the 2008 global financial crisis coming. In April 2007, said we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

As such, it’s difficult to dismiss this latest one.

Check out Grantham’s piece on Barron’s website here if you have time. I only scratched the surface, and it’s an insightful read.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘Silver Might Even Be A Better Buy Than Gold’

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, just published a new entry to his Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast vlog on YouTube.com. From earlier today:

As long as we have the strength of the dollar, we can continue to borrow money to pay for imports. We can continue to go deeper and deeper into debt. But the minute the illusion runs crashing into reality, and people recognize the situation that we’re in. That we didn’t have a legitimate recovery. That we just had a bubble. And rather than higher interest rates and a real recovery, we’re back in recession. And the Fed is going to try its hardest to blow more air into this bubble. It is not going to work. And this collapse in the dollar today is just the beginning. The dollar has a long way to fall. Not only does it have to reverse all its ill-gotten gains, but it has a long way to go beyond that. Because the problems for the dollar, the fundamentals for the dollar, have gotten worse the entire time the dollar was rallying. And it’s this phony rally in the dollar, it’s this false belief in a higher dollar and higher interest rates, that have wreaked havoc with the emerging markets, with emerging market currencies, with commodities. And all of these markets are going to be able to breathe a huge sigh of relief as the Fed backs away from these rate hikes and the dollar begins to tank. But probably the biggest beneficiary of the Fed’s new easing, this new easing cycle that I think is about to begin, is going to be gold. Gold has fallen for the last few years based on this false belief that everything is great, and we’re going to have a return to normalcy, and the Fed is going to shrink its balance sheet. Nothing could be further from the truth. The balance sheet is about to blow up. We’re going to go up to $10 trillion. The national debt just surpassed $19 trillion officially. It’s going to be $20 trillion by the time Barack Obama leaves office- maybe more. He’s doubled the national debt. The next president will have to double it again in order to keep this house of cards from collapsing. I think it’s impossible to finance- that type of growth in debt. But that’s what this bubble economy needs. Because all of our GDP grows based on debt. It’s not real economic growth. It’s just consumption that’s borrowed. And you need to borrow more and more money to get less and less GDP growth. And we’ve run to the point where we can’t do it anymore. The world is not going to continue to give us a pass. And so gold prices, I think, are going to take off. I think the correction from this long-term bull market is over. And I think gold is going to make new highs. And of course if gold is going to make new highs, so is silver. And so silver might even be a better buy than gold because silver corrected a lot more during the correction. And so it has a lot more lost ground to make up for.


“Fed Blinks: Tightening Financial Conditions Will Derail Rate Hike Expectations”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Peter Schiff: U.S. Stocks In Bear Market, Economy In Recession, ‘Going To Be Longer And Deeper Than The Great Recession of 2008-2009’

The last “crash prophet” I’ll be talking about today is Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff. Earlier Monday I watched Graham Ledger interview Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, on the January 21 installment of The Daily Ledger show (One America News Network). From their exchange:

LEDGER: Do we have the indicators right now of a bear market?
SCHIFF: Well, sure, not only are we in a bear market in stocks. I think we’re in a recession, economically. When you played the clip from President Obama’s State of the Union- when he talked about people peddling fiction I thought he was talking about me. But I’m the one who’s selling reality. He’s peddling a bill of goods trying to pretend this recovery is real. But whatever it was- it’s over. And I think the recession that we’re in now is going to be longer and deeper than the Great Recession of 2008- 2009. And of course, all bear markets begin as corrections. But they don’t officially call it a bear market until it’s down 20 percent. The Russell 2000 is down 25 percent, the Dow Transports are down 30 percent, many individual sectors and stocks are down a lot more than 20 percent. And so it sure feels like a bear market even though officially Wall Street hasn’t declared it a bear market. But if the Fed doesn’t come up with a QE 4. Which I think it’s going to do. I think it’s a mistake. They shouldn’t do it. They shouldn’t have done 1, 2, and 3. But the only way to stop an official bear market will be for the Fed to reverse course, reduce rates, and launch another round of QE. That’s it.


“Market Tanking After Fed Pricked Their Own Bubble”
YouTube Video

Schiff went on to talk about how the U.S. auto “bubble” has burst, the U.S. housing market is also a “problem,” and that he predicts “a lot of people are going to lose their jobs in this recession.” Regarding the Federal Reserve and Janet Yellen? They’re going to try and keep this thing afloat until November. From the interview:

Obama’s whole claim to fame is that he inherited a disaster, and now everything is great. The truth is, he inherited a disaster, and now it’s a bigger disaster. But he doesn’t want the voters to know that in November. And I think Janet Yellen is a team player. I think she looks at herself as a member of the Obama administration. She is a very partisan, liberal Democrat. And she doesn’t want this thing to collapse until the election is over. Now, I don’t know if she’s going to succeed. I think she’s going to try though.

Like fellow “crash prophet” Jim Rogers, Schiff believes China is being used as a scapegoat for America’s latest financial woes.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Peter Schiff: Fed Will ‘Do More Damage To This Bubble Economy’ If They Raise Interest Rates In December

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today…”

-“Economic News Release,” November 6, 2015, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics website

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff savaged the incredibly-hyped October U.S. jobs report released last Friday in a new entry to The Schiff Report YouTube vlog that same day. Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, also responded to the popular belief that the Federal Reserve will be raising the federal funds rate next month. From the video:

Everybody now has jumped to the conclusion that a December rate hike is a lock. It is a sure thing, the Fed has no excuse, they’re going to move interest rates, lift-off at last in December. And as far as I’m concerned, there’s nothing in this job report that would say that. There’s nothing here that’s going to require the Fed to raise interest rates if they don’t want to.

Why does Schiff think this? He doesn’t believe it’s part of the U.S. central bank’s game plan. He added:

See, this is what scares the Fed. Let’s assume the Fed actually does raise rates. What do they do if that rate hike, even though it’s really small, what if it prompts a stock market decline? How do they stop it? Cut rates? They’d look like fools if they do that. I mean, if the Fed raises rates and the stock market goes down, people might start believing that there’s no Yellen put. That the put is expired. And that there’s no more safety net. I mean, that could be very scary if the stock traders don’t think they’ve got the Fed to protect them. Because how can Janet Yellen protect them if she’s raising rates? She can only protect them if she can cut rates. So it’s very risky for the Fed to upset the apple cart, right? There’s an expression- “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” And as far as the Fed is concerned, extend and pretend is working like a charm. Everybody believes the Fed’s about to raise rates, even though they don’t actually say they’re going to do it. So they never have to really do anything. If they get the benefit of a rate hike psychologically, they get to pretend we’ve got this great economy, but they don’t actually have to raise rates, and prove to everybody that we don’t have a great economy. So there’s a lot at stake here, and I think it’s a lot easier for the Fed to punt again, and to say, “Look, you know, it’s still possible that we’ll raise rates in March” or whenever they want to pretend.

And if Yellen and the Fed does raise rates in December? Schiff warned:

I think if the Federal Reserve actually raises rates, they’re simply accelerating the moment in time when they’ll have to cut them again. I think if the Fed raises rates, they’re going to do more damage to this bubble economy, which means they’re going to have to blow even more air to fill it back up. So if they do raise rates, that means the onset of QE 4 could happen even sooner than if they just continue to pretend to raise rates but not do it.


“Over-Hyped Oct. Jobs Report Does Not Assure Dec. Rate Hike.”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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