Stocks

Warren Buffett: U.S. ‘Will Work Fine’ Under Trump, Stocks Headed ‘A Lot Higher’

Last Thursday, famed investor and Hillary Clinton backer Warren Buffett spoke to CNBC about his thoughts on the United States with Donald Trump at the helm. The third-richest man in the world told viewers:

Certainly he has the most important job in the world. But, America works. And I’ve said this before, it would work wonderfully under Hillary Clinton. I think it will work fine under Donald Trump. We’ve got the “secret sauce.” And it doesn’t work all the time perfectly. But you just look at where we go- milestone after milestone. And, never bet against America.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway also talked stocks. He predicted:

I have no idea what the stock market’s going to do in the next year. I do know it will be a lot higher 10 years from now and 20 years from now

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Warren Buffett says the US will do fine under Trump, because we’ve got the ‘secret sauce'”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Wednesday, January 25th, 2017 Government, Investing, Political Parties, Stocks No Comments

James Rickards: ‘Fed Will Have To Go Dovish’ And Bonds, Gold Will Rally

Back on December 27, James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one… I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

On January 12, James Rickards elaborated on this forecast on The Daily Reckoning website. He informed readers of “Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal”:

My short-term expectation is the Fed will raise rates in March. My intermediate-term expectation is that the market is going to be disappointed with the stimulus, the Fed tightening is going to be at the wrong time, the stock market’s going to “fall out of bed,” the economy’s going to slow down, and the Fed will have to go dovish.

At that point you’re going to see rallies in bonds, rallies in gold, and a decline in the stock market…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Rickards, James. “Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal.” The Daily Reckoning. 12 Jan. 2017. (https://dailyreckoning.com/be-prepared-violent-fed-reversal/). 23 Jan. 2017.

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Jim Rogers On U.S. Stocks, Dollar, Markets, And Economy Under Trump

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers speculated about the economy under President Trump in a MarketWatch piece published this afternoon. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about:

-U.S. stocks- “He very much wants a trade war. And if that happens, sell everything”

-U.S. dollar- “This is a good time to add dollars.” According to reporter Sue Chang, Rogers believes “the greenback will continue to rise through this year into 2018.”

-U.S. financial markets/economy- Chang added:

The one certainty that the markets can bet on, according to Rogers, will be more chaos under Trump, which may coincide with an economic turmoil on a global scale.

“We are overdue for a crisis,” he said, reiterating his steadfast view that debt levels across the world, including in the U.S. and China, continue to swell while interest rates are at historic lows…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that last summer Jim Rogers revealed he was basically short U.S. equities and long the dollar.

There was also this warning from the Singapore-based investor in May:

The world is facing some very complicated and difficult times. Once you become knowledgeable, you’re going to get very worried, which you should, and then you might get prepared, because not all of us are going to survive what’s coming in the next few years. I hope I survive, I hope everybody listening to this survives. But it’s going to be a very, very damaging and difficult time. So be worried. Be prepared

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Head on over to the MarketWatch site here to read the entire article.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Martin Armstrong Covered By Washington’s Blog

When I last blogged about economist Martin Armstrong, I discussed his November 24 post on the Armstrong Economics Blog in which he talked about the elimination of cash and his belief “the United States will most likely break apart by 2036.” Disturbing stuff.

Like I’ve said before- for me, the jury’s still out on Armstrong. However, Washington’s Blog, which bills itself as “Real-Time, Well-Researched and Actionable News on America and the World,” published an insightful piece on the man and his forecasts back on December 30. From that post:

Martin Armstrong is a controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events … more or less to the day.

Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best. Armstrong credits a computer program he created (which he calls “Socrates”) for the accuracy of his forecasting.

Armstrong’s background is even more dramatic because he was jailed for 11 years on trumped-up allegations of contempt, fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. Armstrong was ultimately released without any charges, and – as the documentary The Forecaster explains – the 11-year imprisonment was a way to try to pressure him to hand over his forecasting program.

Washington’s Blog sent a reporter to Armstrong’s annual conference in Orlando, Florida, to see what all the buzz is about …

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Washington” noted Armstrong’s take on:

-Capital flows (declining)
-Debt (private superior to government)
-Europe (more chaos dead-ahead)
-U.S. stocks (bubble coming, then bust)
-European Union (Britain will survive because of Brexit)
-Cash (being eliminated by goverments for taxation purposes, negative interest rates)
-Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, or FATCA (negative impact on global economy, yet positive for taxation)
-Politicians (self-interested, greedy bastards)

Read all about it on Washington’s Blog here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Jim Rickards: ‘We’re Going To Go Into A Recession Or The Stock Market Is Going To Have A Very Severe Correction’

Marc Faber isn’t the only “crash prophet” who realizes the financial environment U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could inherit is significantly different than what Ronald Reagan encountered in 1981. Back on December 5 I blogged about James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author, who was on RTÉ Radio 1 (Ireland) the prior week informing listeners of the following:

Less regulation, lower taxes, and a lot more infrastructure spending. This was Ronald Reagan’s playbook. This is what Ronald Reagan did in 1981 with a lot of success. But there are big differences, reasons to believe Trump will not be as successful. Namely because when Reagan came in, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio- the amount of debt relative to our economy- was 35 percent. Today it’s almost 105 percent. Reagan had inflation of 20 percent. Trump has it close to zero. In other words, Reagan had a lot of tailwinds– inflation had to come down, interest rates had to come down, he had fiscal space to run up the debt. Trump has headwinds

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last Tuesday, Rickards appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one Martin. I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

CNBC anchor Martin Soong asked his guest, “What is it going to take to cause these two outcomes- what’s the trigger going to be?” Rickards replied:

First of all, it’s already happening. There’s basically a head-long collision coming between perception and reality. So what’s the perception? The market’s rising on the Trump reflation trade. So, Trump wants to cut taxes. Steve Bannon’s talking to his advisors about a trillion dollars of infrastructure spending, cutting regulations. So all these things are viewed to be highly stimulative. So that’s why the market’s going up… But with the Fed, they’re thinking of two things. Number one, they believe in the Phillips Curve… With unemployment at 4.6 percent and that kind of stimulus coming, they know monetary policy acts with a lag- they want to get out ahead of inflation. So they’re on track to raise rates. By the way, they want to raise them anyway independent of this because they’ve got to raise them so they can cut them in the next recession. So the Fed’s on track to raise. The market expects stimulus. But here’s the point. The stimulus is not going to come. Congress has already said tax cuts have to be revenue neutral- that’s going to take away the stimulative effect. They’re going to balk at more spending. We have $20 trillion of debt. A 104 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. So we’re not going to get this trillion dollars of spending. And we’re in the eighth year of an expansion Martin. Keynesian stimulus- if it works at all, it works at the beginning of an expansion or in a recession. Not after 8 years. You don’t get much bang for the buck.


“Fed to reverse course by year-end: Expert”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Marc Faber Warns Of Trump Inheriting ‘Hugely Inflated Asset Markets’

In an interview with CNBC-TV18 (India) earlier today, Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber talked about a potential financial “poisoned chalice” U.S. President-elect Donald Trump might be inheriting. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report was asked about what he thought “the biggest risk for global markets in 2017” could be. “Doctor Doom,” as the financial press like to call him, responded with a trade war with China and the following:

When Mr Ronald Reagan became president in 1981, he was elected in November, 1980, asset markets were very depressed and interest rates at very elevated level. The treasury yields in America on the 20-year and 30-year bonds was over 15 percent. So, he inherited a huge tailwind of diminishing inflation, falling interest rates and depressed assets that had a huge upside potential in the 1980’s. Trump, he inherits, and that is the biggest risk, hugely inflated asset markets. The bond markets in the developed countries, as you know, have the lowest yield they ever had in the history of mankind. The bond yields will not go much lower. Now, can the 10-years yield that has gone from 1.3-1.4 percent to 2.5 percent, can it go back to 1.7 percent or 1.5 percent? Yes, possible, but it will not go much below 0 percent.

And number two, when you look at stock markets as a percent of the economy, the stock markets around the world as a percent of the economy are at a very high level, especially in the US. In other countries less so, but in the US they are. Furthermore, the US stock market has significantly, and I repeat, significantly outperformed other markets in the world since 2011 and it leaves it vulnerable to an adjustment. The adjustment may happen with the US not going up a lot. But other markets like India, emerging markets in general, Europe outperforming the US, or it could happen with everything coming down and then the US underperforming, going down more than other markets, which actually would be my view, what will happen. This is the risk…

(Editor’s notes: source CNBC-TV18 transcript and bold added for emphasis)

You can read the entire interview here on the CNBC-TV18 website.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Robert Shiller On Stocks: ‘I Can Imagine That It Might Go Up From Here, For A While, Even Though It’s At A High Level’

Yale University Economics Professor Robert Shiller was on CNBC this morning taking about the “Trump Rally” in stocks. The Nobel Prize winner, who correctly-called the dot-com and housing busts of the last decade, was asked if he thought U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is good for stocks. He replied:

Probably in the short run… I’m tempted to be optimistic, for the short run…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

On the possibility that equities might be at the end of a cycle, Dr. Shiller responded:

I’m certainly not saying we’re there now. In fact, it’s the other way around. I’m thinking, the market does look high. I think, maybe I wouldn’t go overall in a big way into the market. But going into under-priced, lower-priced sectors at this point- it still looks okay. It’s still going to give you a better return than investing in fixed incomes.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The “crash prophet” was also asked if he was at the point of raising a “red flag” on the stock market rally. Shiller told viewers:

I can imagine that it might go up from here, for a while, even though it’s at a high level.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Shiller: It’s not a good time, but I’m not saying panic”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Latest edition of the Dr. Shiller classic…

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Thursday, December 8th, 2016 Crash Prophets, Government, Investing, Stocks No Comments
Survival And Prosperity
Est. 2010, Chicagoland, USA
Christopher E. Hill, Editor

Successor to Boom2Bust.com
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