Weather

Latest On Strong Geomagnetic Storm Possibly Hitting Earth

Last night I blogged about the Sun unleashing an X-class solar flare in the direction of our planet, and the potential for a strong geomagnetic storm due to a “likely” coronal mass ejection (CME) accompanying the flare.

Here’s the latest from the NOAA/NWS Space Weather Prediction Center about the likelihood of severe space weather in the coming days. From their website this morning:

2014-09-11 05:01 UTC A Pair of CMEs

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms remain in the forecast for September 12th as a result of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R1 (Minor) solar flare observed on the 9th. The latest WSA-Enlil model run has the CME associated with yesterday’s R3 (Strong) solar flare arriving mid to late day on that same day. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for September 13th due to the combined influence of these two events with G1 (Minor) storming anticipated to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption yesterday is expected to persist for the next few days. Keep in mind that the forecast periods listed are in Universal Time so aurora watchers in the northern U.S. should be looking for possible activity both Thursday and Friday nights. Stay tuned for updates…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Okay, so the SWPC is predicting “G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms” for Friday, September 12, and issuing a “G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch” for Saturday, September 13.

According to the “NOAA Space Weather Scales” web page under “NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms,” G2 (“Moderate”) storms are characterized by the following:

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)**.

As for G3 (“Strong”) geomagnetic storms:

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

The damage from a G2 or G3 geomagnetic storm doesn’t appear to be too significant. G4 (“Severe”) geomagnetic storm events look like the ones we should be worried about:

Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid…

The folks over at the Space Weather Prediction Center seem to think electrical grids aren’t in any real danger from this latest bout of severe space weather. Doyle Rice reported on the USA Today website this morning:

Major disruptions are not expected, even though the flare was classified as an “X-class” flare, which is at the high end of the solar flare scale. Wednesday’s flare followed a weaker flare late Monday.

“We expect geomagnetic storm levels in the G2 (moderate) and G3 (strong) range,” said NOAA space weather forecaster Bill Murtagh.

“G2-G3 geomagnetic storms can cause some problems for the (power) grid but are typically very manageable,” Murtagh said in an e-mail Thursday morning. “We may also see some anomalies with satellites so satellite operators around the world have been notified. And problems with the accuracy of GPS have been observed with this level of storming.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Rice added later:

The worst of the energetic particles streaming from the sun likely will miss Earth this time…

Did the Earth just “dodge a bullet” from the Sun? Guess we’ll know for sure after the weekend.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Rice, Doyle. “Solar storm heading for Earth.” USA Today. 11 Sep. 2014. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/09/10/solar-flare-space-weather/15415827/). 11 Sep. 2014.

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Strong Geomagnetic Storm To Hit Earth In Coming Days?

Survival And Prosperity readers across the world- Earth was in the crosshairs of a powerful X-class solar flare earlier today. USA Today’s Doyle Rice reported this evening:

A solar flare that launched off the sun Wednesday afternoon could wreak havoc with communications systems and power systems on the Earth, as well as with satellites in orbit, in coming days.

Forecasters with NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said the flare already “caused impacts to high-frequency radio communications on Earth today,” according to NOAA. “A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is likely, but further analysis is necessary to determine whether it will produce geomagnetic storming on Earth.”…

If a CME occurred, Earth’s magnetosphere will likely be disturbed and a geomagnetic storm could result in the next few days, NOAA reports…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Rice added:

Space weather forecaster Bill Murtagh said that scientists will know more about when and where the impacts will be when more data comes in later Wednesday and early Thursday…

I visited the Space Weather Prediction Center website, and here’s their latest on the event:

2014-09-10 23:18 UTC Recent R3 Solar Flare

Active Region 2158, now near center disk, produced a X1 (NOAA Scale R3 – Strong) solar flare today at 10/1745 UTC (Sep 10th at 01:45pm EDT). Impacts to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth lasted for a little more than an hour.

Initial information suggests that CME is likely associated with this event, however, further analysis is underway at this time…

Standby for more details.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Now, regular blog readers might remember the TESIS Geomagnetic Activity Forecast I named “Resource Of The Week” back on August 24, 2013. In their “3-day forecast of solar activity,” the Russians are predicting a 1 percent “probability of a strong magnetic storm” Thursday, a 20 percent probability of a strong magnetic storm Friday, and a 5 percent probability Saturday.

Time and time again I’ve blogged about the threat from severe space weather. This latest bout has the potential to be real bad according to what I’ve been reading.

I plan on checking back with the Space Weather Prediction Center (website) later tonight or tomorrow if necessary to find out the results of their “further analysis.”

I suggest you might want to do the same.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Rice, Doyle. “Solar Storm Heading for Earth.” WLTX19.com. 10 Sep. 2014. (http://www.wltx.com/story/tech/science/2014/09/10/solar-storm-heading-for-earth/15418653/). 10 Sep. 2014.

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2015 Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts ‘Super-Cold’ Winter For Eastern Two-Thirds Of U.S.

Back when I still lived under my parents’ roof, I’d sometimes grab my dad’s latest copy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac to read. Don’t know about the Almanac? From their website:

Since 1792, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has spoken to all walks of life: tide tables for those who live near the ocean; sunrise and planting charts for those who live on the farm; recipes for those who live in the kitchen; and forecasts for those who don’t like the question of weather left up in the air…

Our operation is based in Dublin, New Hampshire. The words of the Almanac’s founder, Robert B. Thomas, guide us still: “Our main endeavour is to be useful, but with a pleasant degree of humor.”

I thought the annual publication looked pretty “useful,” and figured once I grew up I’d buy my own copies.

A couple of decades later, I’m all ready to purchase the 2015 edition of the Almanac that’s set to be released in less than a week. Now, I’m not blogging about the Old Farmer’s Almanac because it’s going to be made available to the public earlier than its usual mid- September release date- which is sort of news. Rather, this post is about the publication’s long-term weather forecast for the country in the coming year. Specifically, winter. Rik Stevens on the Associated Press website earlier today:

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, the familiar, 223-year-old chronicler of climate, folksy advice and fun facts, is predicting a colder winter and warmer summer for much of the nation.

Published Wednesday, the New Hampshire-based almanac predicts a “super-cold” winter in the eastern two-thirds of the country. The west will remain a little bit warmer than normal.

“Colder is just almost too familiar a term,” Editor Janice Stillman said. “Think of it as a refriger-nation.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Refriger-nation”

I don’t like the sound of that. Stevens added later:

More bad news for those who can’t stand snow: Most of the Northeast is expected to get more snowfall than normal, though it will be below normal in New England…

Perhaps the rest of the country will get to see more like the following this winter…


“Reckless Tow Truck New York”
Warning: Language
YouTube Video

I like the fact that the Old Farmer’s Almanac has about an 80 percent success rate with its weather forecasts.

For more regional highlights and what could be in store for the U.S. after this coming winter, you can read the rest of that AP piece here.

No mention of winter for the Midwest though in that article. Guess I’ll find out what’s in store for us once I get my copy- and whether or not I should plan on shoveling/snowblowing every other/every third day like I did a lot last winter.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, August 20th, 2014 Preparedness, Weather No Comments

Downtown Chicago Could Receive Resilient Electric Grid

Some good news coming out of Chicago concerning the protection of its electric grid. From area electric utility ComEd yesterday:

ComEd to Partner with AMSC on Superconductor-based Resilient Electric Grid System
Homeland Security Project Seeks to Increase the Resiliency and Security of
Chicago’s Electric Grid

Devens, MA, and Chicago, IL – July 16, 2014 – AMSC (NASDAQ: AMSC), a global energy solutions provider serving wind and power grid industry leaders, today announced that ComEd, a unit of Chicago-based Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC) and one of the nation’s largest electric utilities, has agreed to develop a deployment plan for AMSC’s high temperature superconductor technology to build a superconducting cable system that will strengthen Chicago’s electric grid. The Resilient Electric Grid (REG) effort is part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate’s work to secure the nation’s electric power grids and improve resiliency against extreme weather, acts of terrorism, or other catastrophic events.

“Modernizing our region’s electric grid is part of ComEd’s vision to strengthen power reliability and to connect our customers and this region to the 21st century digital economy,” said Anne R. Pramaggiore, President and CEO, ComEd. “We view this project as a natural extension of the infrastructure improvements and technological upgrades that have been under way for the past two years as we develop and deploy the smart grid. Linking our critical urban infrastructure to this superconductor system would provide added reliability, resiliency and security to Chicago’s Central Business District, an essential economic engine for the state and region.”

The current design of the grid infrastructure in many U.S. cities makes restoration of power after a catastrophic event time-consuming, costly, and unpredictable. Led by the DHS Science and Technology Directorate, the Resilient Electric Grid is a self-healing solution that provides resiliency in the event that portions of the grid are lost for any reason. The ComEd installation would be the first commercial application of this advanced technology in the United States

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Nice to hear a project protecting downtown Chicago’s grid is in the works, although to be fair, only three miles of superconductor cable is supposed to be laid.

If you’re outside the “Loop” you’ll be lumped together with the rest of us mopes in the Chicago metropolitan area.

The lights are flickering. Gotta run.

You can read the entire press release (.pdf file) on the ComEd website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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2.9 Percent GDP Contraction Casts Doubt On Sustainability Of Economic ‘Recovery’

Remember that U.S. GDP “hiccup” from the first quarter?

It’s been revised. And let me just tell you, barf-o-rama baby. Barf-o-rama.

From a Reuters piece on the CNBC website earlier today:

The U.S. economy contracted at a much steeper pace than previously estimated in the first quarter, but there are indications that growth has since rebounded strongly.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy’s worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.

While the economy’s woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Wow, did I just read that last part right? Usually the MSM plays along with that oft-used weather excuse as bad government economic reports are concerned.

The general feeling I’m getting tonight from mainstream media outlets is one of “don’t worry, be happy.” Of course, damage control is in overdrive. Jeffry Bartash reported on the MarketWatch website:

The revised GDP report briefly stunned Wall Street and clearly unsettled the White House. President Obama’s chief economic adviser, Jason Furman, cast doubt on the report and argued the economy is much stronger than the first-quarter contraction implied.

Investors, for their part, shrugged off the backward-looking report. The economy appears to have rebounded in the second quarter and economists polled by MarketWatch predict growth will turn positive again, with a 3.8% increase…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

3.8 percent increase in GDP in the second quarter? After revisions? It will be interesting to see if they’re right.

Personally, I feel that abysmal first quarter GDP report is a worrisome sign the sustained economic “recovery” we keep being told about is getting long in the tooth.

“Taper” to go full reverse soon, like “crash prophet” Peter Schiff has been predicting?

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

“Bad to worse: US economy shrank more than expected in Q1.” Reuters. 25 June 2014. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101787838). 25 June 2014.

Bartash, Jeffry. “Economy’s stumble in first quarter historic.” MarketWatch. 25 June 2014. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-growth-contracted-29-in-first-quarter-2014-06-25). 25 June 2014.

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Project Prepper, Part 28: Buying My Parents Some Emergency Preps

A couple of years ago, my parents in the Chicago suburbs lost electricity for an extended period of time after severe weather pummeled the area. I heard from them the morning after the event, and they weren’t doing so well. Without power on an extremely hot and humid night, the two of them fumbled around in the dark and hardly got any sleep. My Mom informed me that it was especially brutal on my Dad, who is an octogenarian with all sorts of health issues- mobility being one of them. During that conversation, my mother told let me that I should be prepared to evacuate him if the electricity didn’t come back on that evening.

Evacuate meaning carrying him down from their fourth floor condo unit in a building without working elevators.

He’s kind of heavy (225 pounds), so I wasn’t really looking forward to this task. Thankfully, the electric company got the power restored to their building before I had to attempt this.

Shortly after this incident, I asked my parents if they wanted me to help them prepare for the next time this happened. Shockingly, they were actually receptive to this.

Alas, I wasn’t able to assist them right away. So the next time I brought the subject up, Mom and Dad weren’t interested.

I guess this is pretty common according to the emergency management pros. An emergency/disaster strikes, and those affected initially talk about being prepared for the next major crisis. But then they never follow through. And the next emergency/disaster happens.

Seeing that the Chicago area just wrapped up its winter of 2013-14 a couple of weeks ago (there was an unmelted snow pile still on the ground two suburbs over in early May!), and severe weather often rolls through during the transition from winter to summer, I recently purchased some basic emergency preparedness gear from Amazon.com for my parents anyway (I didn’t want them to go through another hellish night like the one they experienced a couple of years ago). This included:

Coleman Twin LED Lantern

This lantern would be their main source of emergency lighting in a blackout. From the Coleman website:

Light the night your way with the Coleman Twin LED Lantern. Extra-bright at up to 390 lumens, this lantern lets you see far and wide while four Cree LEDs, which never need to be replaced, provide effective, efficient, energy-saving light when you need it. The rotating dial offers customizable light settings from low to high. Long runtimes—299 hours on ultra-low and 85 hours on high—will have you back home before you need fresh batteries. Its weather-resistant construction delivers reliable output, even in wet and windy conditions, and its base unscrews for quick access to the battery chamber so you can change them virtually anywhere, anytime. Powered by 8 D-cell batteries, come out of the dark with the Coleman Twin LED Lantern.

The twin LED lantern costs $36.44 on Amazon.com as I type this.

Coleman 4D XPS Classic Personal Size LED Lantern

For when either of my parents go to a different room from where that twin LED lantern is situated. From Amazon.com:

The Coleman 4D XPS Classic Personal Size LED Lantern sheds 190 lumens of light, thanks to the super-bright Cree XLamp XR-E LED. The Lantern is Coleman XPS-compatible; it will run for up to 60 hours on High, 25 hours on Low, on 4 D-cell batteries — or use the optional 6V rechargeable battery pack (both sold separately). A diffuser tube provides a perfect beam pattern. The Lantern is weather-resistant to withstand the elements, so it’s great for camping and other outdoor use.

The personal LED lantern costs $19.98 on Amazon.com as I type this.

O2COOL NEW 10″ Battery Operated Fan with Adapter

I bought two of these (one for each parent). From the Chicago, Illinois-based O2COOL website:

Features Include:

• Dual Power sources: Plug-in with the AC adapter (included) or use 8 D-Cell batteries (not included).
• Powerful 2 speed 10-inch blade.
• Convenient built-in handle.
• Stable horseshoe base.
• Tilts for directional air flow.
• Compact folding design makes it great for travel; easy to carry and store.
• Perfect for camping and outdoor activities.
• Up to 40 hours of battery life.

Each portable dual power fan costs $26.85 on Amazon.com as I type this.

Yeah, I know these devices require a bunch of “D” batteries (which I already picked up and installed a couple of weeks ago). But my parents won’t use these lanterns or portable fans if they’re too “complicated” to power and operate.

I also picked up two 3.5-gallon WaterBrick water containers (discussed here) for my parents as well from a different vendor. I figured in addition to helping my parents cope with a blackout, I could help them deal with a boil-water advisory like the one that hit nearby Deerfield, Illinois, last summer.

A single WaterBrick costs $20.02 on Amazon.com as I type this.

Finally, my parents had some existing preps at their condo. Besides a variety of flashlights, I bought them a black Princeton Tec Fuel Headlamp similar to the one I own and use (discussed here, $19.38 on Amazon.com).

And while not an emergency radio, my Mom picked my Dad up a Sony ICF-S10MK2 Pocket AM/FM Radio. It’s handy and I can think of a ton of uses for it- besides getting information in an emergency. Plus, the price is definitely right ($12.97 on Amazon.com).


“Sony ICF-S10MK2 Pocket AM/FM Radio”
YouTube Video

I’ll still be sending them over a “real” emergency radio soon.

So a little bit of a detour in my “Project Prepper” series of posts. But definitely worthwhile.

Once I get back to my parents I’ll take some photos of these preps and share them with readers.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season began yesterday. And back on May 22, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration told us what we could expect for the next six months. From the NOAA website:

In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.

The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer. El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico…

While the forecast is rosy, I wouldn’t let my guard down.

Those living in potentially-affected areas should pay a visit to the National Hurricane Preparedness Week page on the National Hurricane Center website to help prepare against these severe weather events.

You can read that entire 2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on the NOAA website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Monday, June 2nd, 2014 Emergencies, Preparedness, Weather No Comments

Resource Of The Week: Twotsi.com Space Weather Warning Service

Last summer, while seeking some resource out there that tracks severe space weather and attempts to forecast the resulting geomagnetic storms affecting Earth, I came across the Russian-based TESIS Geomagnetic Activity Forecast (blogged about here).

Recently, I stumbled on a similar resource called the Twotsi.com Space Weather Warning Service. Billed as “Free Solar Flare and Magnetic Storm Warnings,” their website says:

This service is pretty reliable since it uses data from the US Government Noaa service forecast updated daily, and the report updated 3 hourly so its nearly real time. If they go down due to a solar flare its too late!

We here at Twotsi have got rather concerned with the statements that NASA made in June 2011 regarding their inability to predict major solar events, and their issuing of a video to their employees on preparing for an emergency. We looked to see if we could find a free Alert service that would give timely warnings of an event but could not do so, so we found where the info was online and came up with a way to produce a system backed by the might of NASA and Noaa. Here it is…

The free alert service utilizes e-mail, and each alert message:

Will have a full synopsis of what is currently occurring and what is expected to occur in the next 24 hours. This includes information on ongoing and predicted Geo Magnetic Storms, Solar Radiation Storms (can affect GPS), and Radio Blackout events. This will also be accompanied by the latest 3 day forecast…

According to the website, users can set the level of alert to start receiving messages from, and can unsubscribe from the service whenever they like. A minimum of one e-mail every thirty days is sent to users “to assure you that the service is still alive and kicking.

Interesting resource- which I might have to sign up for.

The Twotsi.com Space Weather Warning Service website can be found here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: Link added to “Resources” page)

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Dangerous Solar Storms Coming As Current Cycle Wanes?

“Though the sun is currently in the peak year of its 11-year solar weather cycle, our closest star has been rather quiet over all, scientists say.

This year’s solar maximum is shaping up to be the weakest in 100 years…”

-SPACE.com, July 12, 2013

“This is the height of the 11-year solar cycle, the so-called solar maximum. The face of the Sun should be pockmarked with sunspots, and cataclysmic explosions of X-rays and particles should be whizzing off every which way.

Instead, the Sun has been tranquil, almost spotless…”

-The New York Times website, September 23, 2013

I have this feeling that many of those concerned about a dangerous solar maximum (normal period of greatest solar activity in an 11-year “solar cycle” of the Sun) and Solar Cycle 24 are ready to call it a day.

I’m not sure we’re out of the woods quite yet though when it comes to threatening space weather.

From the website of Boulder, Colorado-based University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), a consortium of more than 100 member colleges and universities focused on research and training in the atmospheric and related Earth system sciences, earlier today:

ON THE WATCH FOR SOLAR SUPERSTORMS

As the current solar cycle winds down, the risk of big storms goes up

Don’t write off this solar cycle just yet. Even though the current peak in the 11-year cycle of sunspot activity is on the weak side, the Sun might still produce a major storm at any point, spewing plasma that could disrupt power grids and satellite communications. What’s more, the waning part of the solar cycle—which we’ll experience during the latter part of this decade— is actually when the most dangerous storms are most likely.

NCAR solar physicist Scott McIntosh is raising awareness. He gave a talk at the American Meteorological Society’s 2014 annual meeting on how and why solar storms tend to cluster on either side of the solar activity cycle, with the very biggest tending to occur as the cycle recedes

(Editor’s note: Bold in body text added for emphasis)

This is the first time I’ve heard of such an increased risk in dangerous space storms as a solar cycle wraps up. If I come across more material on this phenomenon, I’ll share it with readers.

In the meantime, you can read that entire piece on the UCAR website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Severe Weather, Tornadoes Predicted This Weekend

I’m rather concerned about severe weather- including tornadoes- a number of meteorologists have been warning about since yesterday. From the Weather Channel website tonight:

As is typical of spring, the threat of severe weather is ramping up from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and parts of the South through early next week.

This weekend, the next weather system will begin to kick into gear and spark multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes from Saturday through at least Tuesday. In fact, we could see an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes on multiple days…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

And then there’s this from Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist, on AccuWeather.com this evening:

A multiple-day outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, is set to begin this weekend. The outbreak is likely to be the worst of the season so far and may end up being one of the top severe weather events for the season

People will need to keep a close eye on the weather, watch for rapidly changing weather conditions and pay careful attention to severe weather and tornado warnings as they are issued.

Now is the time to review tornado safety measures with your family…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Not to be a worry-wart, but I think Sosnowski is on to something here. Please keep a close eye on the weather for the next couple of days. Get a weather radio (I bought a Midland WR-100 a couple of years back- and love it) if you don’t have one already.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: The Midland WR-100 is discontinued. The Midland WR-120B looks like its replacement- and a very good one according to Amazon.com reviews .)

Sources:

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Project Prepper, Part 27: Transferring Pre-Owned Gear, Supplies To The New Everyday Carry Bag

In my last “Project Prepper” post, I blogged about the Everyday Carry bag and putting one together for myself after two decades of carrying something along the lines of one.

Today, I’ll be talking more about transferring pre-owned gear and supplies to the new EDC bag.

Last Wednesday I wrote:

Tomorrow, I’m going to start transferring items from my old bag to the Patagonia Half Mass. In a future post I’ll blog about Everyday Carry items going into the bag.

Well, that transfer is done, and the canvas FOX Outdoor Courier bag has been retired from front-line service after a good six years or so for the Patagonia Half Mass that’s been designated to be my new EDC bag.

This morning, I busted out another old bag of mine which I purchased about a decade ago. The yellow Eddie Bauer gym bag- which is usually kept in my vehicle- contains not only items for a roadside emergency, but emergency preparedness gear and supplies which I started accumulating post-9/11. When added to the case of bottled water, old sleeping bag, and extra clothing/boots I would store in my car’s trunk (not at the moment however as I change things up for this series of posts), I’d have the tools, gear, and supplies to tackle a number of emergencies- possibly for a couple of days if required.

The last time I really went through the bag- adding items and replacing expired supplies- was back in 2010.

Until today- when I started pulling a 3-day supply of emergency food and a disposable rain poncho from it for the new EDC bag,

I also added items to the new bag which I’ve recently acquired and set aside until now, such as a foldable water-resistant baseball cap, portable unisex urinal bags, and a LifeStraw personal water filter.

Now, I still need to do some thorough research and put together a comprehensive list of Everyday Carry items I think should go into this bag. But based on what’s been transferred from these two older bags, I think I have a pretty good foundation on which to build on.

EDC Bag Tranfer

Note the Doomsday Preppers toilet paper on top of the old Eddie Bauer bag

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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IEMA: First-Ever America’s PrepareAthon! To Be Held On April 30

There’s no better time than right now to prepare for those nasty spring-early summer storms we get on a regular basis here in the Chicago area and elsewhere in the state, in addition to other severe weather events that might descend upon us in the coming twelve months. To help spur Illinoisans into action, the Illinois Emergency Management Agency issued a press release yesterday regarding a nationwide emergency preparedness event that’s scheduled to take place a week from today. From the release:

IEMA Encourages Participation in ‘America’s PrepareAthon!’ on April 30
First National Day of Action Expected to Draw Millions of Participants

SPRINGFIELD – On April 30, millions of people are expected to take part in the first-ever America’s PrepareAthon!, a national day for preparedness actions sponsored by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The Illinois Emergency Management Agency (IEMA) and local emergency management agencies throughout the state are encouraging individuals, families, businesses, schools, community organizations and others to be part of the event by participating in a preparedness activity related to tornadoes or floods.

For its part, IEMA will conduct a tornado drill for 120 employees in its largest workplace in Springfield. The five-story building houses more than half of the agency’s employees and was damaged when tornadoes struck Springfield on March 12, 2006. IEMA will conduct tornado drills at its other facilities at later dates to ensure employee preparedness.

“Tornadoes and floods are two hazards we know well in Illinois,” said IEMA Director Jonathon Monken. “But just recognizing these hazards isn’t enough. It’s even more important to take action to prepare for those hazards. The national day of action on April 30 provides an excellent opportunity for people, businesses, schools and others to practice their plans.”

America’s PrepareAthon! is a new nationwide, community-based campaign for action to increase emergency preparedness and resilience through hazard-specific drills, group discussions and exercises conducted twice a year. Nearly five million people already are registered to participate in the April 30 national day of action, which will focus on four specific hazards: floods, tornadoes, wildfires and hurricanes. Since wildfires and hurricanes aren’t major hazards in Illinois, state activities will focus on floods and tornadoes.

The fall PrepareAthon! national day of action is set for September 30 and will focus on earthquakes, hazardous materials, pandemic flu and severe winter weather.

Anyone interested in participating in America’s PrepareAthon! can register on FEMA’s website at www.fema.gov. The site includes informational resources to help plan and conduct events.

Chicago Storm

Storm rolling into my old Chicago NW side neighborhood

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Go-To Gear For When The Lights Go Out

Last Friday night, my girlfriend and I lost power at our place in the Chicago suburbs.

It’s not like there was a storm going on. Not even a breeze from what I could tell. The electricty just went sayonara without any warning.

Rather than freak out- this subdivision sure is dark without any lights (the same holds true even with light )- I did what I usually do when an event like this happens nowadays:

Bust out some emergency gear.

I recently realized that I’ve never really gone into detail about the items I use when the lights go out. So, I’ll talk about them this afternoon, assuming a scenario where I lose power at night.

The first item I grab in such a situation is my Princeton Tec Fuel Headlamp, Black, which I picked up from the local Cabelas a few years back. From the Princeton Tec website:

When applied well, technology should be simple. Such is the case with the innovative Fuel headlamp – designed to meet the widest range of applications while remaining small, lightweight and robust. With all of the touch points of the product being considered, the Fuel’s smart design fulfills technology’s promise of actually making our lives easier.

What could be better than a light that weighs only 78g with 70 lumens of brightness and 146 hours of burn time? A light that also has an asymmetrical single arm bracket that makes directing the light effortless and reliable; a large, easy to find push button switch and a virtually bulletproof, easy access battery door that protects the 3AAAs and its electronics. Yea.. that’s pretty much it.

Simple. Perfect. Fuel.

I never owned a headlamp until I learned how handy it was for Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre during the economic collapse in Argentina. I love it. I even bought one for my Dad and the “super” at my old apartment building before I moved ($20.16 @ Amazon.com as I type this).

As soon as I get my hands on the headlamp, I grab two more “essentials” right away- a battery-powered LED lantern and dual-power (AC/batteries) portable fan.

The Coleman Twin High Power LED Lantern was another Cabelas purchase from a couple of years ago. From the Coleman website:

Enjoy the outdoors in full, bright light with the Coleman® Twin High Performance LED Lantern. Ultra-bright at 580 lumens, this lantern lets you see far and wide while four Cree® LEDs, which never need to be replaced, provide effective, efficient, energy-saving light when you need it. With seven brightness settings that range from high to ultra-low, you’ll have just the right amount of light. A long runtime—100 hours on ultra-low and 10 hours on high—will have you back home before you need fresh batteries. Its water-resistant construction delivers reliable output, even in wet and windy conditions, and its base unscrews for quick access to the battery chamber so you can change them virtually anywhere, anytime. Powered by 8 D-cell batteries, come out of the dark with the Coleman® Twin High Performance LED Lantern.

-Eight brightness settings ranging from high to ultra-low
-580 incredibly bright lumens on high
-52-ft. (15.85 m) beam distance on high
-Up to 10 hours runtime on high setting
-Up to 100 hours runtime on low setting
-Powered by eight D-cell batteries (sold separately)
-Four lifetime Cree® LEDs never needs replacing
-Stays cool while running
-Water resistant against rain and splashing water
-5-year limited warranty

Boy is this thing bright- even on lower settings! I had it lit in the master bedroom Friday and anyone passing by might have easily thought we didn’t lose power. I’ve run this lantern several times since it was purchased for short durations, and the “D” batteries that I installed a couple of years ago are still going strong (had to check for battery leakage as soon as I typed that- I’m good). I like it so much I’m planning on buying one for my parents ($56.99 @ Amazon.com as I type this).

Blackout Gear

“Essential”:O2COOL Portable Fan and Coleman LED Lantern

The other “essential” I grab is a dual-power (AC/batteries) portable fan from Chicago-based O2COOL. The model I picked up from a local Kmart a couple of years ago (#1071) looks to be discontinued. However, its successor, O2COOL NEW 10″ Battery Operated Fan with Adapter (Model# FD10002A), certainly looks just as capable judging by Amazon.com reviews. From the O2COOL website:

Features Include:

Dual Power sources: Plug-in with the AC adapter (included) or use 6 D-Cell batteries (not included)
Powerful 2 speed 10-inch blade.
Convenient built-in handle.
Compact design makes it great for travel; easy to carry and store.
Perfect for office and home.
Up to 40 hours of battery life.

The portable fan does a great job of cooling off an individual and circulating air around a small room for its compact size. The O2COOL comes out every time the lantern does. And like the Coleman, I’ve used it several times for short durations since its purchase, with the original 4 “D” batteries I put in it still working strong. I plan on buying more O2COOL dual-power portable fans, as Chicago summers can be brutal ($20.99 @ Amazon.com as I type this).

I usually bust out other items, like an emergency weather radio or portable DVD player- but not before that other gear.

While my girlfriend and I have managed to get by with the above, I am looking at acquiring more items for when the lights go out, such as additional emergency lighting, an emergency weather radio with more capabilities, and another portable dual-power fan. More about that in a future “Project Prepper” post though.

In the meantime, readers- care to share the “essential” gear you like to use when the lights go out?

I, for one, would love to hear what your go-to items are.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Chicago-Area Lakes Hit By Bad Fish Kill

A number of Chicago-area preppers/survivalists might be planning to fish the local lakes to supplement their diet should TSHTF.

If that’s the case, be advised of the following, which I read in a weekly roundup section in my Sunday Chicago Tribune:

Fish kill worse than usual, expert says

Another legacy of the harsh winter: The fish kill in small lakes around the area was worse than what one state fisheries official said he’d seen in 34 years on the job.

Here’s hoping this won’t jeopardize my shot at landing a big pike or largemouth at my family’s place in southeastern Wisconsin this summer/fall…

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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USDA: Food Prices Expected To Rise 2.5 To 3.5 Percent In 2014

It’s not only prices at the pump that are going up these days where I live.

From what I’ve seen, food prices keep rising as well (while portions continue to shrink).

And it looks to continue that way in 2014. Ros Krasny reported on the Reuters website Tuesday:

U.S. food prices are expected to rise more rapidly this year after a very tame 2013, led by gains in beef, poultry and egg prices, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.

The food price inflation outlook assumes normal weather, the USDA said, adding that the California drought poses a risk of bigger increases in many food categories, and that high supermarket prices for beef are “here to stay.”

Various measures, including overall food, food-at-home and food-away-from-home prices, are expected to rise by 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2014. The consumer price index for all food prices rose by 1.4 percent in 2013…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Krasny added that according to the USDA, prices at the supermarket have risen by an average of 2.8 percent annually since 1990.

I blogged about potential avenues for saving in this area back on March 10, 2011, and March 23, 2013.

Seeing that a landscaper is scheduled to stop by tomorrow, now’s as good a time as any to formulate a plan for fighting higher food costs while moving towards food self-sufficiency here in the Chicago suburbs. I’ll fill you in on what I’ve come up with in a future “Project Prepper” post (starting up again next week).

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Krasny, Roz. “Pricier beef ‘here to stay’ as food costs seen higher: USDA.” Reuters.com. 25 Mar. 2014. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/25/us-usa-agriculture-inflation-idUSBREA2O13Q20140325). 27 Mar. 2014.

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Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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