Jim Rogers On Gold: ‘I Expect The Correction To Continue’

Well-known investor Jim Rogers was recently interviewed for Palisade Capital’s Palisade Radio, “The fastest growing radio show in junior mining.” Collin Kettell, Partner and CEO at Palisade, spoke to the former investing partner of George Soros about a number of topics. Rogers said about gold:

KETTELL: Back in mid-2103 you were interviewed by Kitco News at Freedom Fest in Las Vegas where you called for a continued correction in the price of gold. And as a precious metals investor I remember hoping that your call would be dead wrong. But here we are nearly two years later- gold is just started to perk up. Any new thoughts on the price action of gold today?
ROGERS: I expect the correction to continue. I expect another opportunity to buy gold in the next year or two, and if so, I hope I’m smart enough to buy it. Now, if America goes to war with Iran or something, I’ll be begging to buy gold at $1,600. But I expect another opportunity to buy gold in a decline sometime in the next couple of years.

The Singapore-based investor also talked about gold stocks. From the exchange:

KETTELL: And do you share the same feeling for the gold stocks, many of which are off closer to 80 and 90 percent? Are you an investor in any of the mining companies right now?
ROGERS: Well, I actually bought a mining ETF recently- a gold mining ETF recently- just in case. And your point is very valid that gold stocks have gone down a whole lot more than gold has. And sometimes you can make money in those stocks, or you should be buying them anyway in situations like that, because they can go up even if gold goes sideways. The can go up even if gold goes down just because they got beaten up so much. But I am not a big buyer. I just put a small, small, small toe in the wash.


“Jim Rogers: Gold Correction to Continue Into 2015 – 02/08/15”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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NRA: BATFE To Ban Common AR-15 Ammo

It was only a matter of time. Several weeks into the new year, and the gun “control” crowd is off-and-running again. There’s been a number of developments lately, but here’s one that seems to be really worrying American gun owners- particularly those possessing the popular AR-15 rifle. From the website of the National Rifle Association’s Institute for Legislation Action (NRA-ILA) this past Friday:

In a move clearly intended by the Obama Administration to suppress the acquisition, ownership and use of AR-15s and other .223 caliber general purpose rifles, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives unexpectedly announced today that it intends to ban commonplace M855 ball ammunition as “armor piercing ammunition.” The decision continues Obama’s use of his executive authority to impose gun control restrictions and bypass Congress.

It isn’t even the third week of February, and the BATFE has already taken three major executive actions on gun control. First, it was a major change to what activities constitute regulated “manufacturing” of firearms. Next, BATFE reversed a less than year old position on firing a shouldered “pistol.” Now, BATFE has released a “Framework for Determining Whether Certain Projectiles are ‘Primarily Intended for Sporting Purposes’ Within the Meaning of 18 U.S.C. 921(a)(17)(c)”, which would eliminate M855’s exemption to the armor piercing ammunition prohibition and make future exemptions nearly impossible.

By way of background, federal law imposed in 1986 prohibits the manufacture, importation, and sale by licensed manufacturers or importers, but not possession, of “a projectile or projectile core which may be used in a handgun and which is constructed entirely . . . from one or a combination of tungsten alloys, steel, iron, brass, bronze, beryllium copper, or depleted uranium.” Because there are handguns capable of firing M855, it “may be used in a handgun.” It does not, however, have a core made of the metals listed in the law; rather, it has a traditional lead core with a steel tip, and therefore should never have been considered “armor piercing.” Nonetheless, BATFE previously declared M855 to be “armor piercing ammunition,” but granted it an exemption as a projectile “primarily intended to be used for sporting purposes.”

Now, however, BATFE says that it will henceforth grant the “sporting purposes” exception to only two categories of projectiles:

Category I: .22 Caliber Projectiles

A .22 caliber projectile that otherwise would be classified as armor piercing ammunition under 18 U.S.C. 921(a)(17)(B) will be considered to be “primarily intended to be used for sporting purposes” under section 921(a)(17)(C) if the projectile weighs 40 grains or less AND is loaded into a rimfire cartridge.

Category II: All Other Caliber Projectiles

Except as provided in Category I (.22 caliber rimfire), projectiles that otherwise would be classified as armor piercing ammunition will be presumed to be “primarily intended to be used for sporting purposes” under section 921(a)(17)(C) if the projectile is loaded into a cartridge for which the only handgun that is readily available in the ordinary channels of commercial trade is a single shot handgun. ATF nevertheless retains the discretion to deny any application for a “sporting purposes” exemption if substantial evidence exists that the ammunition is not primarily intended for such purposes.

BATFE is accepting comments until March 16, 2015 on this indefensible attempt to disrupt ammunition for the most popular rifle in America. Check back early next week for a more in-depth analysis of this “framework” and details on how you can submit comments.

How to comment – from the BATFE

ATF will carefully consider all comments, as appropriate, received on or before March 16, 2015, and will give comments received after that date the same consideration if it is practical to do so, but assurance of consideration cannot be given except as to comments received on or before March 16, 2015. ATF will not acknowledge receipt of comments. Submit comments in any of three ways (but do not submit the same comments multiple times or by more than one method):

ATF email: APAComments@atf.gov

Fax: (202) 648-9741.

Mail: Denise Brown, Mailstop 6N-602, Office of Regulatory Affairs, Enforcement Programs and Services, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives, 99 New York Avenue, NE, Washington, DC 20226: ATTN: AP Ammo Comments.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Denise Brown, Enforcement Programs and Services, Office of Regulatory Affairs, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives, U.S. Department of Justice, 99 New York Avenue, NE, Washington, DC 20226; telephone: (202) 648-7070.

Permission has been granted by the NRA-ILA to reproduce the above.


“BATF to ban M855/SS109 ammo”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Thoughts On Chicago Home Invader Yelling ‘Fire! Fire!’

“According to the FBI, nearly 50,000 robberies within residences (the bureau’s classification for home invasions, not all of which involve violent entry) occurred in 2011, or about 135 per day…”

-NBC News website, September 9, 2014

Beware of the following. From Chicago’s ABC 7 website back on January 27:

Police are warning residents of a pair of home invasions on Chicago’s Far Northwest Side.

Authorities said a man broke into two homes, one in the 3800-block of North Pacific Avenue around 1:20 p.m. on Jan. 19 and one in the 6700-block of North Oxford Avenue around 2:50 p.m. on Jan. 21.

In each incident, police said the suspect forced his way through the front door, yelled, “Fire! Fire!” and ran out.

The suspect then got into a dark-colored vehicle driven by someone else and took off…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

You can read the rest of that article here, which doesn’t give an explanation for why the home invader spent the time and effort breaking into these residences- only to shout “Fire!” on both occasions, then leave. Note the following comment on the piece though:

This is just bizarre; I think there’s more to this story than the article lets on. If they do find this guy, they definitely need to get him psychiatric help since he’s clearly mentally ill…

“Mentally ill.” Perhaps. But consider this alternative. The home invader broke into these homes, discovered he wasn’t alone, and in an effort to create confusion for a rapid escape, the “Caucasian or Hispanic man in his late 20s” subsequently yelled “Fire! Fire!”. Under these circumstances, it would have been easy for the (almost) victims to mistake the intruder as some Good Samaritan at first and set about checking the premises for fire before realizing what really happened.

Mentally ill? How about “fast-thinker” or “smart criminal”?

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Marc Faber: Central Banks, Governments Will Try To Confiscate Privately-Held Gold

Last week I was listening to a King World News interview of Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report warned listeners that he believes privately-held gold is in danger of being confiscated by central banks and governments. From an exchange between Eric King and Dr. Faber in that interview which appeared on the website on February 10, 2015:

KING: Marc, we were talking about the money printing earlier. Obviously, we had the revaluation of the Swiss franc overnight that led to so much chaos. But what I wanted to ask you today is, you’ve already said I think gold is going to have a strong 2015, but are we going to wake up at some point in the future and have a massive revaluation of gold overnight? Is that something you see happening not this year but in the future? Is that coming at some point?
FABER: Yes. But I think before it will happen the central banks and the governments will try to take the gold away from ordinary people, you understand? I think they know that this would be one solution for the global financial system to peg it again to some extent on gold. But before they do that, I think they’ll go after you and me and say, “Okay, parasites of society that do not spend but keep their money in gold that is unproductive- let us take it away.” That is the threat. I’m not worried about the price of gold. What do I care if the gold price is at $1,000 or $500 or $1,500 or $5,000? What I care is that I can keep ownership of gold.
KING: Just so I understand this, there may be a global coordinated effort by as many central banks that can get together on this to seize the gold, to take the gold.
FABER: Yes, because the professors at the central banks and the academics, most of them have never owned a single ounce of gold. And they know that gold is the honest currency that cannot be printed. Yes, the supply increases and sometimes the price goes up and sometimes the price goes down. But this is a market they really cannot control in the long-run. They can manipulate it in the short-run, but the more they manipulate it, the more it will eventually go to its real level. And so central bankers basically who are the money printers- the counterfeiters of this world- they hate gold. Period.

Later on in that King World News interview, “Dr. Doom” talked about the investments he owns these days. Faber revealed:

I own some real estate in Asia. I own some gold. I own some stocks. I own some bonds, because I agree with you at some point the bond market will diverge. In other words, they’ll print money and buy bonds, but the bond market will go down.

You can listen to the entire interview on the King News World website here (gold confiscation discussion begins at 14:09).

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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The Civic Federation Proposes Less Government Spending, More Taxes To Tackle Illinois’ $6.4 Billion In Unpaid Bills

Regular Survival And Prosperity readers shouldn’t be surprised to hear the following from The Civic Federation, an independent, non-partisan government research organization that provides analysis and recommendations on government finance issues for the Chicago region and State of Illinois. From a press release last Thursday:

In a report released today, the Civic Federation’s Institute for Illinois’ Fiscal Sustainability proposes a comprehensive five-year plan that responds to the dire reality of Illinois’ financial condition with painful, but necessary recommendations. The plan immediately stabilizes the State’s operating budget and establishes a sustainable long-term financial plan that would pay off Illinois’ unpaid bill backlog of approximately $6.4 billion. The full 56-page report is available here.

Nearly five years after the official end of the national economic downturn, Illinois is still burdened with billions of dollars in unpaid bills. The State’s five pension systems, underfunded for decades and further weakened by recession-driven investment losses, are consuming a growing share of annual operating revenues. Temporary income tax rate increases enacted in 2011 helped the State cope with these massive problems, but the higher rates began to phase out on January 1, 2015 and the State’s income tax revenues are expected to plummet by $5.2 billion between FY2014 and FY2016.

“The incomplete FY2015 budget resulted in a greater deterioration of Illinois’ finances and made the necessary actions to fix this crisis even more painful,” said Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation. “Illinois cannot afford such a steep rollback of its tax rates without eliminating entire areas of State services or completely restructuring the government.”

After examining the effectiveness of multiple budget scenarios based on the fundamental long-term financial goals detailed below, the Federation proposes the following recommendations as part of a comprehensive five-year plan…

In a nutshell, The Civic Federation proposes less government spending and more taxes for the State of Illinois. From that press release:

1. Fix Fiscal Cliff in FY2015: Rather than sharply dropping income tax rates by 25% in one year, the State should retroactively increase the income tax rate to 4.25% for individuals and 6.0% for corporations as of January 1, 2015. The State could then provide additional tax relief by rolling back the rates on January 1, 2018 to 4.0% for individuals and 5.6% for corporations.
2. Control State Spending: The State should restrict discretionary spending growth from the 2.7% level shown in its three-year projections to 2.0%, closer to the rate of inflation. This could reduce total State spending by $1.3 billion over five years.
3. Broaden the Income Tax Base to Include Some Retirement Income: Out of the 41 states that impose an income tax, Illinois is one of only three that exempt all pension income. To create greater equity among taxpayers, the State’s income tax base should include non-Social Security retirement income from individuals with a total income of more than $50,000.
4. Expand Sales Tax Base to Include Services: Illinois should expand its sales tax base to include a list of 32 service taxes proposed by Governor Rauner. Due to the complexity of sourcing rules and collections for new businesses that are not currently required to collect sales taxes, it is estimated this expansion could take up to two fiscal years to fully implement.
5. Temporarily Eliminate Sales Tax Exemption for Food and Non-Prescription Drugs: To provide much-needed immediate revenue, the State should temporarily eliminate the tax exemption for food and non-prescription drugs. The State should apply the full 6.25% sales tax rate to food and over-the-counter drug purchases through FY2019 and then reinstate the exemption in FY2020 after the service tax expansion is fully implemented and the State’s backlog of unpaid bills is eliminated.
6. Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit to Provide Assistance to Low Income Residents: To help soften the impact of the State’s fiscal crisis on low income residents, the Civic Federation proposes an increase in the State’s Earned Income Tax Credit from 10% of the federal credit to 15% of the federal credit by FY2018…

At this point, I wholeheartedly believe it’s just a matter of time now before a number of the above are implemented either willingly (legislatively) or forcefully (“financial reckoning day”) in the “Land of Lincoln” down the road.

As such, it might be wise for Illinoisans to start preparing (if they haven’t done so already) for an impending hit to household finances and elsewhere.

You can read the entire press release and obtain that report on The Civic Federation’s website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Chicago School Of Wilderness Skills Offering Survival Basics, Fire Building Classes On February 28

Chicago-area blog readers may have noticed local content has been somewhat heavy on nearby survival-related training opportunities lately.

I hope you’ve enjoyed finding out about them as much as I have.

Back on January 9, I blogged about Chris Mayor and the Chicago School Of Wilderness Skills, and some instruction they were scheduled to provide earlier this month. Looking at the school’s “Calendar Of Events” page last week, I noticed two classes being offered on the last day February. From the calendar:

survival basics

Saturday, February 28, 2015
11:30am-1:30pm

introduction on the essentials: fire, water, shelter, and food. How to plan a successful trip. We’ll also discuss gear and getting properly outfitted for deep woods camping. class cost 25$

we’re meeting at 10:00 am at the heartland cafe and traveling to our destination. contact us to reserve a spot

In addition to basic survival training, the school will be offering instruction on a potentially life-saving skill particularly for this time of year in this part of the country. Also from the calendar:

fire building

Saturday, February 28, 2015
2:00pm-4:00pm

In this class students will learn a variety of ways to start a fire in a survival or wilderness setting,

the class will cover making charcloth and punkwood and how to use them in combination with a flint and steel. we’ll discuss gathering fatwood , identifying various stones that spark when stuck with steel, proper safety, and what to do in worst case situations. location to be disclosed students should bring an altoids tin as well as a piece of cotton fabric or denim. class cost 25$ contact us to reserve a spot

Looking at Dabble.co (not .com), where information about the school’s classes can also be found, it shows only 8 spots left for Survival Basics and 6 places available for Fire Building as I type this.

In early March, I see a Flint Knapping workshop and Field First Aid class on the calendar. Lots of interesting and useful instruction coming out of the Chicago School Of Wilderness Skills these days, which you can learn more about on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Quote For The Week

“In winter, I plot and plan. In spring, I move.”

-Henry Rollins (American musician, writer, journalist, publisher, actor, television and radio host, Spoken Word artist, and activist. 1961- )

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)


Rollins Band, Divine Object of Hatred (Live 1996)
YouTube Video

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Sunday, February 15th, 2015 Preparedness, Quote For The Week No Comments

Illinois Bill Would Legalize Firearm Suppressor Use

“By definition, the primary role of a suppressor is to reduce the overall sound signature of the host firearm to hearing safe levels. They do so by trapping the expanding gasses at the muzzle and allowing them to slowly cool, in a similar fashion to car mufflers. Their muffling capabilities intrinsically make them a hearing protection device for both the shooter and those around them.”

-American Suppressor Association website

Illinois firearm owners might be interested in the following. Brian Brueggemann reported on the Belleville News-Democrat website last Friday:

Hunters and other shooting enthusiasts would be allowed to have silencers on their guns under a bill filed in the Illinois legislature.

The bill’s sponsor, Rep. Brandon Phelps, D-Harrisburg, said gun owners want silencers for a simple reason: to avoid hearing loss.

“There are a lot of veterans, a lot of hunters and shooters, who have suffered hearing loss,” Phelps said.

Phelps acknowledged that gun opponents are likely to challenge the bill.

“I’m used to that. They said that about concealed-carry — they said everybody was going to be running around shooting each other, like the wild west,” Phelps said. “That’s the movies.”

Firearm suppressors (or sound suppressors and silencers as they’re also known) are highly-regulated in the United States. J. Guthrie reported on the Guns & Ammo website back on May 13, 2012:

If you lived in Scotland, they would be required for hunting. If you lived in Finland you could saunter down to the local gun shop and buy one over the counter—one more reason to like Finland. In the U.S., suppressors are regulated by the National Firearms Act and you have to first make sure they are legal in your state, fill out a federal form and send it, a couple of photos and some fingerprints into the BATFE for approval. Once approved—the process can take six or seven months—the BATFE sends you a little stamp and some paperwork and you can take possession of the suppressor from you dealer. There are legal considerations for interstate transportation and transferring the suppressor too…

The suppressor legislation sponsored by Phelps is Illinois House Bill 433 (you can check on its status here). State Senator Bill Haine (D-Alton) has filed the same bill in the Senate.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Brueggemann, Brian. “Bill would allow Illinois gun owners to use silencers.” Belleville News-Democrat. 6 Feb. 2015. (http://www.bnd.com/2015/02/06/3649514_bill-would-allow-illinois-gun.html?rh=1). 11 Feb. 2015.

Guthrie, J. “G&A Basics: How Suppressors Work.” Guns & Ammo. 13 May 2012. (http://www.gunsandammo.com/gear-accessories/suppressors/ga-basics-how-suppressors-work/). 11 Feb. 2015.

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Wednesday, February 11th, 2015 Firearms, Gun Rights, Health, Hunting, Legal, Shooting Sports No Comments

Upcoming REI Survival-Related Classes In The Chicago Area

Chicago-area readers- below are survival-related training classes from REI for the next month or so:

Valentine’s Day Couples Survival in the Wilderness, Palos Forest Preserve- Bull Frog Lake (south suburbs- Willow Springs), February 14, 9 AM-2 PM, $65 member/$85 non-member, 2 spots left
Map and Compass Navigation Basics, Northbrook REI (north suburbs- Northbrook), February 19, 6:30-8:30 PM, $30 member/$50 non-member, 9 spots left
Backcountry Navigation with a Map & Compass, Palos Forest Preserve- Bull Frog Lake (south suburbs- Willow Springs), February 22, 9 AM-2 PM, $60 member/$80 non-member, 6 spots left
Wilderness First Aid with WMI and REI, Fullersburg Woods Nature Education Center (west suburbs- Oak Brook) February 21, 9 AM-6 PM, $225 member/$255 non-member, 3 spots left
Wilderness Survival: 3-Season Skills, Palos Forest Preserve- Bull Frog Lake (south suburbs- Willow Springs), February 28, 9 AM-2 PM, $65 member/$85 non-member, 4 spots left
Backcountry Navigation with a Map & Compass, Deer Grove Forest Preserve- Grove 5 (northwest suburbs- Palatine), March 8, 9 AM-2 PM, $60 member/$80 non-member, 7 spots left

REI membership is still available for only a one-time fee of $20. For more information about REI, visit their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, February 11th, 2015 Emergencies, Health, Medicine, Preparedness, Training No Comments

C.U.M.A. Survival School Offering Civil Unrest/Bug Out/Cold Weather Survival Training In Glenview, Illinois, This February

Here’s the latest survival training being offered by Waysun Johnny Tsai and the Chicago, Illinois-based C.U.M.A. Survival School (first blogged about here in April 2014). From the school’s Facebook page in a January 31 post:

NEXT C.U.M.A. SURVIVAL SCHOOL Civil Unrest/ Bug Out/ Cold weather Survival

This class will cover:

Home Prep
Home Defense
The Bug In
The Bug Out Vehicle
The Bug Out
Basic Wilderness Survival Skills
C.U.M.A. COMBATIVES Street Defense

WHEN: Sunday Feb 22nd, 2015

TIME: 10:00AM CST-4:00PM CST

WHERE: OFF THE X-TRAINING CONCEPTS CENTER
4350 Di Paolo Center, Suite H, Glenview, Illinois 60025
AND FOREST PRESERVE in Des Plaines, Illinois… Entrance to be disclosed after you register.

COST: $150.00 (New Students /$75.00 C.U.M.A. SURVIVAL Alumni)

This is a CLOSED DOOR CLASS.

Students MUST Pre-Register / Pre-Pay to attend this class:

Via PAYPAL: Send payment to sifujohnnytsai@gmail.com

By attending this class you agree to having your picture taken/ be video taped in class and allow us to use such materials for marketing purposes.

To reach me call: 773-227-1888 or email sifujohnnytsai@gmail.com

For more information about C.U.M.A. Survival School, you can visit their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Jeremy Grantham Explains Oil Price Decline And How He’s Playing It

Jeremy Grantham, the British-born investment strategist and founder/former chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (oversees $120 billion in client assets as of September 30, 2014), has just released his latest quarterly letter on the GMO website. Grantham, whose individual clients have included current Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney, focused on plummeting crude oil prices this time around. He wrote:

The simplest argument for the oil price decline is for once correct. A wave of new U.S. fracking oil could be seen to be overtaking the modestly growing global oil demand. It became clear that OPEC, mainly Saudi Arabia, must cut back production if the price were to stay around $100 a barrel, which many, including me, believe is necessary to justify continued heavy spending to find traditional oil. The Saudis declined to pull back their production and the oil market entered into glut mode, in which storage is full and production continues above demand…

Why did the Saudis choose this route? To drive prices down and force the U.S. fracking industry to put a cork in their operations, Grantham argued. He added:

In my opinion, no economic implosion is likely just yet and, even if the pessimists are right eventually, that crunch era will be ushered in by very volatile and rising oil prices, not three years of abnormal stability followed by a sudden bust! Right now the mad rush to produce fracking oil in the U.S. (one might reasonably say “overproduce”) has given us a global timeout from the inevitable oil squeeze, which in my opinion is now likely to arrive in about five years but which, without U.S. fracking, was already upon us

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

So the “inevitable oil squeeze” comes in approximately five years. But a decade out from now, Grantham penned:

Most likely though, beyond 10 years electric cars and alternative energy will begin to eat into potential oil demand, threatening longer-term oil prices….

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Which shouldn’t really surprise readers of “Why We Were So Surprised” when the “crash prophet” revealed:

But right now we have a substantial excess of production, and oil demand is notoriously inelastic to price in the short term – people will not be leaping into their cars to celebrate lower gas prices. But with time they may drive an extra 1-2% percent here and elsewhere and the excess will slowly clear: possibly by mid-year and almost certainly by the end of next year. After supply and demand come into balance, the price initially is likely to rise slowly, held in check by the increasing amounts of U.S. fracking oil that can be profitably produced at each new higher price level. It is this rapid response rate that will make the frackers the key marginal suppliers. This is a sensitive and, I believe, unknowable equation as to precise timing, but this phase will likely end only when fracking production, even at much higher prices, tops out, as it most likely will in the next five years. After that, I believe the equation will revert to the relatively more stable and more knowable one of the 2011 to 2013 era, in which the price of oil will be the full cost of finding and developing incremental traditional oil, which by then is likely to be over $100 a barrel. (In the interest of full disclosure I personally have been and will continue to be a moderate buyer of oil futures six to eight years out, for reasons that should be clear from the above. It should also be clear that such a bet can lose easily enough.)

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Once again, good stuff from Grantham, which you can read in its entirety on the GMO website here (.pdf format, starts page 7).

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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The Green Suite Of Chicago Offering DIY Solar Electricity, Window Farming, Zombie Survival Training Classes In February

Here’s the latest instruction being offered by Nick Conrad over at The Green Suite in Chicago (first blogged about here in January 2014). From the Dabble website:

Window Farming for Beginners with The Green Suite
Gardening Classes in Chicago

Class Info

Have you always wanted to start a garden but don’t have the space or knowledge? Window farming is inexpensive and easy way to grow your own food right in your window! Constructed from recycled materials, window farms are perfect for small apartments with limited space.

The class consists of a 1hr introduction to the basics of hydroponics, window farming and seed cultivation followed by a thirty-minute workshop. In the workshop you will make a small hydroponic planter to take home with you. Each student should bring one empty plastic bottle. (12-32oz is best)

Anyone can learn how to grow fresh, organic food, hydroponically. Enroll today and you’ll learn how to grow your own food, save money and turn trash into treasure!

What to bring

Each student should bring one empty plastic bottle. (12-32oz is best)

What will be provided

Hydroponic Supplies

The class is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, February 11, 2015, from 7 to 9 PM at The Green Suite (3958 N. Fremont, Apt. 3, Chicago). As I type this Sunday afternoon, there’s 10 spots still left. Cost is only $30 to attend.

In addition to window farming, The Green Suite is also offering instruction on solar electricity. From the Dabble website:

DIY Solar Electricity with The Green Suite
Sustainability Classes in Chicago

Class Info

Wouldn’t it be awesome to harness your own electricity from the sun? Solar energy is green, silent and a lot easier to build than you think.

This DIY class will cover the basics of electricity as well as how to design, build, and install your own solar panel system. In addition to solar electricity, we will discuss other sources of renewable energy such as wind and geothermal power. The class concludes with hands-on experience assembling part of an actual solar panel.

You will walk away from this course with the basic knowledge needed to start generating your own solar energy at home…and for a lot less money than you thought!

The class is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, February 18, 2015, from 7 to 9 PM at The Green Suite. There are 9 spots left as I type this. Cost again is only $30 to attend.

Finally, Nick has brought back Zombie Survival Training in February. From the Dabble site:

Zombie Survival Training with The Green Suite
Disaster Survival Classes in Chicago

Class Info

If the zombie apocalypse happened right now, would you be ready? Do you even have a plan?

This course is designed to teach you how to survive the worst disaster imaginable, even a wide-spread pandemic of flesh-eating zombies. Using the zombie apocalypse as the worst case scenario, we will discuss survival strategies, food and water preparation and improvised weapons. Class consists of a one hour lecture followed by a thirty minute hands-on workshop. This unique experience is perfect for zombie lovers and survivalists alike.

After this class you will know where to go, what to eat and how to defend yourself when the unthinkable happens. Join us for good food, cold beer and life-saving survival tips.

What to bring

Two empty, uncrushed beverage cans. (Needed to make survival stove.)

What will be provided

building materials.

The class is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, February 25, 2015, from 7 to 9 PM at the Holiday Club, 4000 N. Sheridan Rd., Chicago. There are 11 spots left as I type this, and the cost is- you guessed it- a measly $30.

If you’re interested in any of this instruction, head on over to the Dabble website here for more information and to register for a class.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Quote For The Week

“Now is the winter of our discontent.”

-William Shakespeare (English poet, playwright, and actor. 1564-1616), in his play Richard III (written approximately 1592)

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Sunday, February 8th, 2015 Quote For The Week No Comments

Peter Schiff Says Stock, Housing Markets Down If QE 4 Not Launched In 2015

“The U.S. economy entered 2015 on the most robust streak of consumer spending in years, yet when the first growth figures for 2014 came out Friday they underscored the lack of vigor in the current expansion.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the U.S., notched an annual growth rate of 2.4% for 2014, the government said Friday, just a touch better than the sluggish average of the nearly six-year-old recovery—and far from the 4% growth of the late 1990s. Fourth-quarter GDP was 2.6%, roughly half the summer’s blowout 5% pace, which was aided in part by a spree of military purchases that wasn’t repeated.

The report offered both hope and red flags for the world’s largest economy…”

-The Wall Street Journal website, January 30, 2015

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff discussed the latest U.S. GDP numbers in his January 30, 2015, entry on The Schiff Report vlog on YouTube.com. Schiff told viewers:

Ultimately, what I think has to happen- and it hasn’t happened yet- is that people are going to have to connect these dots, and get their arms around the fact that the U.S. economy is not nearly as prosperous. That this recovery is not legitimate, and that it cannot sustain itself. I mean, how can anybody believe- if you believed that the stimulus worked, if you believe that quantitative easing and zero-percent interest rates stimulated the economy, then how can you take away the stimulus and have the economy perform better without the stimulus than it did with the stimulus? You would have to acknowledge that if you took away the stimulus, you’re going to get less growth. And that’s what’s going to happen. Yet everybody expects more growth…

The only question in my mind is- how long is the Federal Reserve going to maintain the pretense of economic growth and pretend that it stands ready to raise interest rates at some point, when it really is planning on launching QE 4 that will be larger than what they’re doing in Europe. If they don’t launch QE 4 this year, I think the stock market will be down. And not only will the stock market be down, the real estate market will be down. And remember, both the stock market and the housing market are the twin pillars upon which this phony recovery was built. And for those people who think that we’re going to have more economic growth in 2015- 3 percent economic growth which I think is still the consensus in 2015- how is that going to happen? Without any quantitative easing. With rate hikes later in the year. With a falling stock market. With a falling real estate market. You’re going to have the wealth effect working in reverse. In fact, they announced today that the homeownership rate just hit a brand-new 20-year low. And the Fed hasn’t even started to raise rates yet. How is this phony bubble economy going to grow faster under those conditions, than it did last year under the ideal monetary conditions? It can’t. And that is the dichotomy, the inconsistency, that nobody seems to be able to grasp.


“GDP Growth Slows Sharply in 4th Quarter: 2015 to be Worse”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Quote For The Week

“To state the obvious, the past six years have been really, really hard for this country.”

-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, at a House Democratic Retreat in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on January 29, 2015

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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