16th Chicago Police District

Thoughts On Concealed-Carry Permits And Their Relation To ‘Falling’ Chicago Crime

“I don’t expect to see these numbers being touted by Chicago’s mayor or the national media, but they should. The Windy City is one of the areas of the nation most plagued by violence and their efforts to make the entire metropolis a ‘gun free zone’ have only fueled further violence by those who weren’t going to pay attention to the laws in the first place.”

-Jazz Shaw, conservative blog Hot Air, August 25, 2014

A number of alternative media outlets are discussing a supposed correlation between concealed-carry permits being issued in the state of Illinois and “declining” crime in Chicago. Kelly Riddell reported on the website of The Washington Times this past weekend:

Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low.

“It isn’t any coincidence crime rates started to go down when concealed carry was permitted. Just the idea that the criminals don’t know who’s armed and who isn’t has a deterrence effect,” said Richard Pearson, executive director of the Illinois State Rifle Association. “The police department hasn’t changed a single tactic — they haven’t announced a shift in policy or of course — and yet you have these incredible numbers.”

As of July 29 the state had 83,183 applications for concealed carry and had issued 68,549 licenses… A July study by the Crime Prevention Research Center found that 11.1 million Americans have permits to carry concealed weapons, a 147 percent increase from 4.5 million seven years ago. Meanwhile, homicide and other violent crime rates have dropped by 22 percent.

The apparent correlation between more concealed-carry permits and falling violent crime both locally and nationally is interesting. However, in the case of Chicago, I suspect there’s more at work here than just Chicagoans now walking around town armed with Illinois Concealed Carry Licenses and handguns.

“Better” policing, as Chicago Police Department Superintendent Garry McCarthy is supposedly countering with?

What changed?

I suspect the “falling” crime rates can also be attributed to crimes like robberies and burglaries just not being reported like they once were. I blogged back on Halloween of last year:

Enter the folks over at the insightful Chicago police blog Second City Cop, and something they wrote earlier this month. SCC blogged on October 16:

Perception is part of the key to people “feeling safe.” The other part is actually being safe, having a visible patrol presence, being seen making arrests, performing traffic stops, and interacting with the public. That isn’t happening in most “safe” neighborhoods because the manpower has been stripped (or retired without replacement) from those areas.

Add in a massive reclassification of crime, increased response times to discourage reporting of crime, making the 3-1-1 (Alternate Response) a nightmare to navigate through and you have all the makings of betraying trust with the community when they can see the uptick in crimes with their own eyes and they no longer believe your numbers.

Before I exited the city in May, I myself witnessed CPD manpower being stripped from my police district (16th), heard stories about this “massive reclassification of crime”- “downgrade and reclassify”- from Chicago police officers, and read about/personally experienced the “nightmare” in interacting with the Chicago Police Department (procedural, not personnel).

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Make reporting crime a big pain in the butt for residents, and reported crimes like robbery and burglary plummet. Simple as that.

That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if a real correlation did exist between more Illinois CCLs out there in the city and less robberies and burglaries. I just don’t think it’s responsible for most of the drop in crime.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Riddell, Kelly. “Chicago crime rate drops as concealed carry applications surge.” The Washington Times. 24 Aug. 2014. (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/24/chicago-crime-rate-drops-as-concealed-carry-gun-pe/). 26 Aug. 2014.

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

In Chicago, ‘Crime Is Down’ Is Still Being Touted

I see the City of Chicago is still pushing that “crime is down” line pretty hard these days.

Frank Main reported on the Chicago Sun-Times website last night:

Chicago Police Supt. Garry McCarthy said he will focus on the city’s continuing drop in overall crime when he addresses a City Council budget hearing Thursday…

McCarthy said he plans to tell aldermen that every major category of crime — including murder — is down this year. He’ll also point out that overall crime has fallen consistently over decades. Through Oct. 29, this year’s robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft totals, for example, were the lowest in the city since 1966.

Not only is crime supposedly down in the “Windy City,” but the Chicago Police Department doesn’t need additional manpower according to Superintendent McCarthy. Main added:

He said the latest crime statistics show that the police department is able to reduce crime without hiring more cops.

“We will work with what we are given,” said McCarthy, who became superintendent in early 2011 after Emanuel took office. “We’ve got enough police. We have more police officers per capita than any large city in the country.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Enter the folks over at the insightful Chicago police blog Second City Cop, and something they wrote earlier this month. SCC blogged on October 16:

Perception is part of the key to people “feeling safe.” The other part is actually being safe, having a visible patrol presence, being seen making arrests, performing traffic stops, and interacting with the public. That isn’t happening in most “safe” neighborhoods because the manpower has been stripped (or retired without replacement) from those areas.

Add in a massive reclassification of crime, increased response times to discourage reporting of crime, making the 3-1-1 (Alternate Response) a nightmare to navigate through and you have all the makings of betraying trust with the community when they can see the uptick in crimes with their own eyes and they no longer believe your numbers.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Before I exited the city in May, I myself witnessed CPD manpower being stripped from my police district (16th), heard stories about this “massive reclassification of crime”- “downgrade and reclassify”- from Chicago police officers, and read about/personally experienced the “nightmare” in interacting with the Chicago Police Department (procedural, not personnel).

The American author and humorist Mark Twain once said:

Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.

That could very well be the case here.

As for that “we’ve got enough police” statement, it’s no secret that the Chicago Police Department has been burning through massive amounts of funds budgeted for police overtime. John Byrne, Hal Dardick, and Bob Secter reported last week on the Chicago Tribune website:

Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s 2014 budget more than doubles the amount initially set aside for police overtime this year, reflecting the increasingly high financial cost of trying to tamp down gun violence on city streets.

The new spending blueprint anticipates $71 million in overtime for police next year, compared with the $32 million the mayor budgeted for 2013 — an estimate the city rapidly blew past in response to a wave of murders and shootings that drew unflattering national attention.

At what point does it make more sense to just hire additional police officers to address the ongoing manpower shortage? You see, having adequate overtime funds to pay cops to continue the “surge” in troubled areas of the city still doesn’t address the problem of manpower being stripped from the “safe” neighborhoods and criminals taking advantage of this situation- unless the City staffs these districts with the new hires. However, the Chicago Tribune reported just this Monday that:

The city plans to hire only enough new officers to keep the size of the force steady at about 12,500 officers.

But as I blogged back on October 26, 2012, the number of police officers in Chicago fell by about 1,000 in the prior six years.

Prior to Rahm becoming mayor, the previously budgeted strength of the Chicago Police Department was 13,500.

“We’ve got enough police.” That’s certainly debatable. Meanwhile, the “safe” neighborhoods remain juicy targets for criminal activity, and a number of Chicagoans will continue to not feel “safe,” despite what the “official” statistics may show.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Main, Frank. “Top cop touts good news: Every major category of crime down this year.” Chicago Sun-Times. 30 Oct. 2013. (http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/23441171-418/top-cop-touts-good-news-every-major-category-of-crime-down-this-year.html). 31 Oct. 2013.

SCC. “Crime Stats Are Not to be Believed.” Second City Cop. 16 Oct. 2013. (http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/2013/10/crime-stats-are-not-to-be-believed.html). 31 Oct. 2013.

Byrne, John, Dardick, Hal, and Secter, Bob. “Emanuel to spend big on police OT in 2014.” Chicago Tribune. 23 Oct. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-10-23/news/ct-met-rahm-emanuel-budget-1024-20131024_1_police-ot-police-overtime-police-budget). 31 Oct. 2013.

Dardick, Hal and Ruthhart, Bill. “Proposed cigarette tax, police overtime draw council queries.” Chicago Tribune. 28 Oct. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-10-28/news/ct-met-emanuel-budget-1029-20131029_1_proposed-cigarette-tax-gun-violence-budget-director-alexandra-holt). 31 Oct. 2013.

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, October 31st, 2013 Crime, Government, Public Safety, Security, Self-Defense No Comments

16th Chicago Police District ‘Borrowing’ Officers To Deal With Manpower Shortage?

This morning I came across an insightful post about the Chicago Police Department “borrowing” officers from other districts to help man the one I live in on the popular Chicago police blog Second City Cop.

This past summer, a different local blog sounded the alarm over police officer staffing levels in the 16th District.

I don’t think this is going unnoticed by the bad guys either.

You can read SCC’s post here.

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Monday, November 19th, 2012 Crime, Public Safety No Comments
Survival And Prosperity
Est. 2010, Chicagoland, USA
Christopher E. Hill, Editor

Successor to Boom2Bust.com
"The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street"
(Memorial Day Weekend 2007-2010)

PLEASE RATE this blog HERE,
and PLEASE VOTE for the blog below:



Thank you very, very much!
Advertising Disclosure here.
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Emergency Foods Local vendor (Forest Park, IL). Review coming soon.
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Legacy Food Storage Review coming soon
ANY CHARACTER HERE
MyPatriotSupply.com reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Buy Gold And Silver Coins BGASC reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
BulletSafe reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
BullionVault BullionVault.com reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
This project dedicated to St. Jude
Patron Saint of Desperate Situations

Categories

 

Archives