bond prices

James Rickards: ‘Fed Will Have To Go Dovish’ And Bonds, Gold Will Rally

Back on December 27, James (Jim) Rickards, an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, and best-selling author appeared on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box (Asia) and made this prediction about Trump’s first term in the Oval Office:

I definitely see a stock market correction, perhaps a disorderly one… I’m not sure the Fed is ready to cut rates yet. But I expect it will raise rates in March. I think that’s on track. But beyond that, we’re going to go into a recession or the stock market is going to have a very severe correction. Either one of those will cause the Fed to back-pedal.

On January 12, James Rickards elaborated on this forecast on The Daily Reckoning website. He informed readers of “Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal”:

My short-term expectation is the Fed will raise rates in March. My intermediate-term expectation is that the market is going to be disappointed with the stimulus, the Fed tightening is going to be at the wrong time, the stock market’s going to “fall out of bed,” the economy’s going to slow down, and the Fed will have to go dovish.

At that point you’re going to see rallies in bonds, rallies in gold, and a decline in the stock market…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Rickards, James. “Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal.” The Daily Reckoning. 12 Jan. 2017. (https://dailyreckoning.com/be-prepared-violent-fed-reversal/). 23 Jan. 2017.

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Tuesday, January 24th, 2017 Bonds, Crash Prophets, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Precious Metals, Recession, Stimulus, Stocks Comments Off on James Rickards: ‘Fed Will Have To Go Dovish’ And Bonds, Gold Will Rally

Robert Shiller: ‘Stocks In Europe Are MUCH Cheaper Than In The United States’

The last time I blogged about Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, he was saying that the bond market “doesn’t clearly fit my definition of a bubble.” Dr. Shiller knows a thing or two about bubbles, considering he spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier.

Last Thursday, Shiller was interviewed by Bertha Coombs on CNBC’s Futures Now TV show where he shared his thoughts about bonds again (“it’s definitely high”) and some advice for investors. From their exchange:

SHILLER: One of them is, don’t use your usual assumptions about returns going forward. So that means you might want to save more. A lot of people are not saving enough. And incidentally, people are living longer now and health care is improving- you might end up retired for 30 years. People are not really preparing for that. The other thing is, diversify. And that helps reduce risk. And you can diversify outside the United States. Stocks in Europe are much cheaper than in the United States. So some people never invest in Europe- I think that’s a mistake.
COOMBS: So you’d rather go to Europe rather than emerging markets…
SHILLER: Or emerging markets, yeah…


“Robert Shiller’s unconventional investment advice”
CNBC Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Tuesday, February 17th, 2015 Bonds, Bubbles, Crash Prophets, Emerging Markets, Europe, Investing, Retirement, Stocks Comments Off on Robert Shiller: ‘Stocks In Europe Are MUCH Cheaper Than In The United States’

Marc Faber: Gold Going Up 30% In 2015

“BullionVault, an online service for investors to buy and sell physical gold and silver, said its Gold Investor Index fell in December to an almost five-year low.

The gauge, which measures the balance of buyers against sellers, slipped to 50.5 from 52.1 in November, the London-based company said in an e-mailed report today. That’s the lowest level since February 2010 and marked the biggest drop since 2013. A reading above 50 indicates more buyers than sellers…”

-Bloomberg.com, January 6, 2015

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber has been a gold bull for some time. And the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report is so confident about a rising price of gold in 2015 (in spite of all the negative sentiment among investors) that he made an eye-opening prediction yesterday. Sara Sjolin reported on the MarketWatch website Tuesday afternoon:

“I’m positive [that] gold will go up substantially [in 2015] — say 30%,” Faber, whose investment letter is called the Gloom Boom Doom Report, said at Société Générale’s global strategy presentation in London on Tuesday.

“My belief is that the big surprise this year is that investor confidence in central banks collapses. And when that happens — I can’t short central banks, although I’d really like to, and the only way to short them is to go long gold, silver and platinum,” he said. “That’s the only way. That’s something I will do.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

BullionVault

Dr. Faber repeated his recent “bubble in everything, everywhere” statement while in London. Sjolin added:

“We simply have highly inflated asset markets. Real estate is high, stocks are high, bonds are high, art prices are high, and interest rates and short-term deposits are basically zero,” Faber said. “The only sector that I think is very inexpensive is precious metals, and in particularly precious-metals stocks.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Faber, who became well-known for advising clients to get out of the U.S. stock market one week before the October 1987 crash and for predicting the 2008 global financial crisis, appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box back on September 19, 2014, and warned viewers:

Today, the good news is we have a bubble in everything, everywhere– with very few exceptions. And, eventually, there will be a problem when these asset markets begin to perform poorly. The question is- what will be the catalyst? It could be a rise in interest rates not engineered by the Fed, because I think they’ll keep interests rates at zero on the Fed funds rate for a very long time… We could have essentially a break in bond markets at some point. We also could have a strong dollar. A strong dollar has already happened in the last two months signifies that international liquidity is tightening. And when that happens, usually it’s not very good for asset markets.

Dr. Faber also sees a potential investing opportunity in emerging markets, which you can read about in Sjolin’s piece on the MarketWatch website here.

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, January 14th, 2015 Banking, Bonds, Bubbles, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Emerging Markets, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Precious Metals Comments Off on Marc Faber: Gold Going Up 30% In 2015

Robert Shiller On Bonds: ‘Doesn’t Clearly Fit My Definition Of Bubble’

I just blogged about Yale economics professor Robert Shiller on December 30- when he appeared on CNBC that morning and talked about housing. He would know, considering he spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier.

These days, Dr. Shiller is turning his attention to bonds. Pat Regnier reported on the Money magazine website on January 6, 2015:

Since at least 2009, some market observers have called the bond market a bubble.

Shiller, however, resists applying the B-word to bonds. “It doesn’t clearly fit my definition of ‘bubble,’” he says. “It doesn’t seem to be enthusiastic. It doesn’t seem to be built on expectations of rapid increases in bond prices.” (Shiller spoke with Money in December.)

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Dr. Shiller talks more about bonds in that Money piece, which you can read in its entirety on the magazine’s website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Sunday, January 11th, 2015 Bonds, Bubbles, Crash Prophets, Investing Comments Off on Robert Shiller On Bonds: ‘Doesn’t Clearly Fit My Definition Of Bubble’

Marc Faber, Peter Schiff Issue Another Bubble Warning

“I think we are in a gigantic financial asset bubble.”

-Marc Faber on Bloomberg Television’s Street Smart, January 14, 2014

“We have an entire economy that is supported on a foundation of bubbles.”

-Peter Schiff in a MoneyShow Las Vegas presentation, May 12, 2014

These days, the U.S. economic landscape feels a lot like 2007- if you ask me. There’s a tremendous amount of bullish sentiment out there from rising asset prices. Likewise, a number of threats are simmering in the economy and larger financial system- as was the situation seven years ago.

And just like in 2007, “crash prophets” Marc Faber and Peter Schiff are again sounding the alarm on asset bubbles.

Remember- while most other financial types were predicting clear sailing ahead back then for the U.S. economy and housing market, Faber and Schiff correctly-forecast the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and the financial crisis that reared its ugly head by the autumn of 2008.

Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, wrote the following on his company’s website Wednesday:

The truth is the Fed knows the economy needs zero percent rates to stay afloat, which is why they have yet to pull the trigger. The last serious Fed campaign to raise interest rates led to the bursting of the housing bubble in 2006 and the financial crisis that followed in 2008. This occurred despite the slow and predictable manner in which the rates were raised, by 25 basis points every six weeks for two years (a kind of reverse tapering). At the time, Greenspan knew that the housing market and the economy had become dependent on low interest rates, and he did not want to deliver a shock to fragile markets with an abrupt normalization. But his measured and gradual approach only added more air to the real estate bubble, producing an even greater crisis than what might have occurred had he tightened more quickly.

The Fed is making an even graver mistake now if it thinks the economy can handle a measured reduction in QE. Similar to Greenspan, Bernanke understood that asset prices and the economy had become dependent on QE, and he hoped that by slowly tapering QE the economy and the markets could withstand the transition. But I believe these bets will lose just as big as Greenspan’s. The end of QE will prick the current bubbles in stocks, real estate, and bonds, just as higher rates pricked the housing bubble in 2006. And as was the case with the measured rate hikes, the tapering process will only add to the severity of the inevitable bust

According to “Doctor Doom” Marc Faber, the extent of the bubbles goes even further than what Schiff identified. Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box earlier today, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report warned viewers:

Today, the good news is we have a bubble in everything, everywhere– with very few exceptions. And, eventually, there will be a problem when these asset markets begin to perform poorly. The question is- what will be the catalyst? It could be a rise in interest rates not engineered by the Fed, because I think they’ll keep interests rates at zero on the Fed funds rate for a very long time… We could have essentially a break in bond markets at some point. We also could have a strong dollar. A strong dollar has already happened in the last two months signifies that international liquidity is tightening. And when that happens, usually it’s not very good for asset markets.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Schiff, Peter. “A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal.” Euro Pacific Capital. 17 Sep. 2014. (http://www.europac.net/commentaries/new_fed_playbook_new_normal). 19 Sep. 2014.

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Friday, September 19th, 2014 Bonds, Bubbles, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Federal Reserve, Housing, Interest Rates, Investing, Stimulus, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber, Peter Schiff Issue Another Bubble Warning
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