central banks

Peter Schiff: ‘I Would Rather Go Into The Election Long Gold, Short The Dollar As My Main Trades’

Yesterday I spotted economist, financial broker/dealer, and author Peter Schiff on the RT America show Boom Bust. Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis in the last decade, talked about how the financial markets might react to either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning next week’s U.S. presidential election. He told viewers:

Well, I think the markets will react negatively to a Trump victory because there’s more uncertainty surrounding what a Trump presidency would look like. I mean, you say, “Well, with Clinton it’s the devil you know.” But I think in this case “the devil you know” is pretty bad. I’d rather take a shot at the one that we don’t. But I think the markets will be worried about what it might mean and I think the markets will sell off. I think gold will rally. I think the dollar will sell off. But longer term- and of course traders don’t think about the long term, they’re just trading for what’s happening right now- long term, I think a Clinton presidency is much worse for the U.S. economy and therefore ultimately much worse for the U.S. stock market. But in the short run, we have a bubble. And all people are concerned with now, at least traders, are what is going to happen to keep the air from coming out of that bubble. And nobody really wants to challenge the status quo. They want to continue this cozy relationship between the government, the Fed, and Wall Street. And Hillary Clinton means that they will continue it as long as they can. And a Trump presidency really throws a monkey wrench into that because nobody really knows what it means…

Answering a question about how investors should position themselves, Schiff said:

I would rather go into the election long gold, short the dollar as my main trades. And the stock market doesn’t seem as interesting a trade to me as currencies and metal.,,

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Friday, November 4th, 2016 Banking, Bubbles, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Federal Reserve, Government, Investing, Precious Metals, Stocks, Wall Street Comments Off on Peter Schiff: ‘I Would Rather Go Into The Election Long Gold, Short The Dollar As My Main Trades’

Marc Faber Suggests Gold Should Make Up 25 Percent Of Portfolio

Earlier this month, I blogged about how Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber informed CNBC TV viewers he holds physical gold stored in safe deposit boxes.

Last Thursday, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked more about the shiny yellow metal at a CFA Institute seminar in Chicago. Gail MarksJarvis reported on the Chicago Tribune website on July 22:

Faber told the investment professionals gathered in Chicago that they shouldn’t be prejudiced against gold. Although the typical investment pro keeps less than 1 percent of his or her portfolio in gold, Faber suggests 25 percent. He sees it as protection from a dangerous combination of tremendous government debt and massive bond-buying by central banks globally trying to fight off recession with near-zero interest rates…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

MarksJarvis also noted that “Doctor Doom,” as he’s often referred to by the financial news media, thinks there may be value in precious metals mining stocks.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to regular Survival And Prosperity readers. I blogged back on May 24 about Faber’s statement the prior week to a CNBC TV audience that gold shares are one of “the most attractive assets in my view”- the others being oil and gas stocks.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. Christopher E. Hill, the creator/Editor of this blog, is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented on the site.)

Source:

MarksJarvis, Gail. “‘Gloom, Boom & Doom’ economist pushes for gold.” Chicago Tribune. 22 July 2016. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/ct-marksjarvis-column-marc-faber-money-doom-0724-biz-20160722-column.html). 26 July 2016.

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Tuesday, July 26th, 2016 Banking, Bonds, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Energy, Fiscal Policy, Government, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Precious Metals, Recession, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber Suggests Gold Should Make Up 25 Percent Of Portfolio

Peter Schiff Sees ‘Enormous Round Of Quantitative Easing’ Ahead For U.S.

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, who correctly-called the housing bust and economic crisis last decade, just published a new entry to his Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast vlog on YouTube.com. Schiff talked about what’s behind the recent take-off in precious metal prices. From last Friday:

What’s really behind the metals rise is not what’s happening in Europe, but I believe what’s going to be happening here in the United States, because I believe the Federal Reserve is going to use the turmoil in the markets that followed that [“Brexit”] vote as the excuse that it’s been waiting for, not only not to raise rates, but to cut rates and to launch QE 4. In fact, that is the main reason, I believe, that the markets have recovered somewhat from their Brexit-related losses. Because if you look at the financial markets, they are now pricing in for the first time a higher probability that the next move by the Federal Reserve will be to cut rates, not to raise them. Now remember, I’ve been saying this the whole time. Ever since the Federal Reserve raised rates in December I was saying the likelihood was that the next move would be a cut and not another increase…

As we continue to get more weak economic data that continues to surprise all the bulls who are expecting strong data, it’s not going to be long before the talk of rate hikes is really replaced first by the talk of rate cuts, and then by actual cuts. And of course since there’s not a lot of room for the Fed to cut rates because it never really raised them, the real monetary stimulus is going to come from an enormous round of quantitative easing

The reason there was such a violent reaction in the financial markets to Brexit wasn’t because Brexit is so terrible, it just shows you how precarious the global financial system is. It’s all perched upon these props of cheap money and central banking. It’s all based on hype and hope and confidence. And when something shakes the confidence, you see the immediate result. The central bankers are going to do everything they can to keep this bubble from deflating. And that means more money printing not only here but around the world. And all the naysayers, all the guys that were saying “Oh, Peter Schiff was wrong,” “The Fed was right,” “Bernanke was right- he was the hero,” “Paul Krugman was right- there is no inflation.” All the people who had these premature victory laps are going to have a lot of egg on their face. But in the meantime, there isn’t a lot of time left for people to buy gold and silver while there are still people foolish enough to sell it

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Silver Confirms Gold’s Breakout”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, July 5th, 2016 Banking, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Stimulus Comments Off on Peter Schiff Sees ‘Enormous Round Of Quantitative Easing’ Ahead For U.S.

Marc Faber: ‘Most Attractive Assets In My View Are Gold Shares And Oil And Gas Shares’

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the phone with the CNBC TV show Trading Nation last Wednesday. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked investment strategy, and shared the following with viewers:

My view is that in June, [the Federal Reserve] will not move, that they will not increase rates. And that the market will begin to perceive that the Fed wants to support asset markets, which they have stated on numerous occasions before. And that in that environment, gold, which from now on may correct maybe 5 percent or so, will start to move up again. I think an investor should understand, we don’t know how far central banks will move around the world. We need to be diversified. To own some real estate makes sense. To own some equities makes sense. To own some cash and bonds probably makes sense. And to own some precious metals makes sense. The most attractive assets in my view are gold shares and oil and gas shares. I think they still have significant upside potential this year.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Marc Faber on investment strategy”
CNBC Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, May 24th, 2016 Banking, Bonds, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Natural Resources, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber: ‘Most Attractive Assets In My View Are Gold Shares And Oil And Gas Shares’

James Rickards: Gold Other Money That Renders Central Bank Power ‘Meaningless’

The “Quote For The Week” runner-up. From American investment banker, risk manager, attorney, and financial commentator James Rickards, in a recent interview with Schiff Gold’s Albert K. Lu:

I actually think of gold as money. Money is different from an investment or a commodity, so, is gold a commodity? Is it an investment? Is it money? Well, it depends a little bit. Like a chameleon, it changes color. I think of it as money. But I think that’s why there is such bitter opposition, and so many really canards and made-up stories, anti-gold. These come from the PhDs. Whoever controls money controls the world. You control wealth, you control politics; you control who wins and who loses. It’s a very powerful thing to control.

Who controls money today? The answer is the central banks, and those are all PhDs, they come from MIT, Harvard, Chicago, Stanford, just a really small number of universities. They all know each other. It’s a club. Well, if you were in this PhD club that controls the central banks, you wouldn’t want people to even think about gold. You wouldn’t want them to talk about gold, because gold is the competition. Gold is the other money that can render their power meaningless. And so they perpetuate these myths about gold. Unfortunately, a lot of students, a lot of journalists, a lot of everyday citizens follow the leader, follow these PhDs without ever examining the assumptions…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on information found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. Christopher E. Hill, the creator/Editor of this blog, is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented on the site.)

Rickard’s new book…

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Monday, April 11th, 2016 Banking, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Education, Federal Reserve, Government, Investing, Main Street, Mainstream Media, Precious Metals, Quote For The Week, Wealth Comments Off on James Rickards: Gold Other Money That Renders Central Bank Power ‘Meaningless’

Rich Dad Author Robert Kiyosaki: 2016 Market Meltdown ‘Right On Schedule’

The last time I blogged about Robert Kiyosaki, the American entrepreneur, educator, investor, and author of The New York Times best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad talked about precious metals in a January 27, 2016, GoldSeek.com Radio interview. From his exchange with host Chris Waltzek:

WALTZEK: People taking a longer-term perspective, picking up some precious metals. You get that diversification. You can sleep a little more soundly at night. And you also know that you’re getting silver at 66 percent off, gold 40-45 percent off the highs. So where’s the risk there?
KIYOSAKI: The risk is not having it. And that’s why I’m laughing about Saturday Night Live and I can’t tell Fox from Saturday Night Live because those guys are a bunch of cartoons up there now. And those are the guys you’re going to count on for your economy? Give me a break. I mean, right now I trust in gold and I trust in silver. I don’t trust the stock market. I don’t trust the Fed. I don’t trust our leaders. I don’t trust the EU to not come apart. You have Puerto Rico in serious trouble. I mean how many other things have you got out there? And you look at the national debt- it’s now $20 trillion. If you want to believe Saturday Night Live characters then you just keep believing. But I’d rather have gold and silver.

The author of the recently-released Second Chance: for Your Money, Your Life and Our World also informed listeners he got out of stocks “fully” last March.

Last week, I spotted a piece about Kiyosaki on MarketWatch.com. Barbara Kollmeyer reported on March 23:

Fourteen years ago, the author of a series of popular personal-finance books predicted that 2016 would bring about the worst market crash in history, damaging the financial dreams of millions of baby boomers just as they started to depend on that money to fund retirement.

Broader U.S. stock markets are recovering from the worst 10-day start to a year on record. But Robert Kiyosaki- who made that 2016 forecast in the 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy” – says the meltdown is under way, and there’s little investors can do but buy gold or silver and hope the Federal Reserve slows the slide.

Kiyosaki is convinced: The pullback he predicted is happening.

“We’re right on schedule,” he said in a recent interview with MarketWatch…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Kollmeyer added later:

Kiyosaki told MarketWatch that the combination of demographics and global economic weakness makes the next crash inevitable — but the Fed could stave it off with another round of quantitative easing, which might stimulate the economy…

“The big question [whether] we do ‘QE4,’” said Kiyosaki. “If we do, the stock market will come roaring back, but it’s not rocket science. If we stop printing money, it crashes; if we print money, it goes up. But, eventually, it’s all going to come down.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

To combat the crash, Kiyoski still places his trust in gold and silver, among other things. From the piece:

He thinks investors should own some gold or silver, based on the view that central banks will just have to print money to get out of the next crisis and precious metals are often deployed as a perceived hedge against inflation. Some investors, meanwhile, might look for investments geared toward income, such as rent payments or dividends, rather than appreciation.

“If you know what you’re doing and are investing for cash flow, baby boomers — or any investors — may see some gains,” he said. “But for those whose wealth is tied up in the [equity] markets, it’s more like gambling than investing.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

An excellent interview of Kiyosaki by MarketWatch, which you can read in its entirety over on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, March 29th, 2016 Banking, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Demographics, Europe, Federal Reserve, Government, Income, Inflation, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Retirement, Stimulus, Stocks Comments Off on Rich Dad Author Robert Kiyosaki: 2016 Market Meltdown ‘Right On Schedule’

Jim Rogers: ‘I Expect The American Economy To Be In Recession Sometime In The Next Year Or Two

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers was recently interviewed by the Nikkei Asian Review (Japan) about the global economy. Assessing its health, the former investing partner of George Soros warned on the Review’s website on March 20:

I am not optimistic about the global economy for the next couple of years. Japan is already in recession, some parts of Europe are suffering, some parts of America are suffering and that’s going to get worse, in my view, because there is nothing to make the world get better.

In America, we’ve had seven years since our last recession. That is unusual because in America, normally every four to seven years, throughout history, we have had an economic slowdown. So it’s overdue. It doesn’t have to end in seven years, but we have many excesses which have taken place in the world economy, caused by very low interest rates. And the American central bank is making many, many mistakes by having interest rates so low and by printing so much money. And then the Japanese central bank and the European Central Bank, and the British central bank, all did the same thing. So we’ve had an artificial situation based on printed money and huge amounts of debt. [The Federal Reserve’s] balance sheet was $800 billion in 2008. Now it is nearly $5 trillion. I expect the American economy to be in recession sometime in the next year or two.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Survival And Prosperity readers may remember earlier this month I quoted a March 4, 2016, Bloomberg.com piece where it was reported:

The famous investor said that there was a 100 percent probability that the U.S. economy would be in a downturn within one year

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In the short-but-insightful Nikkei Asian Review interview conducted by Hisashi Tsutsui, the Singapore-based Rogers revealed where he would invest given current circumstances, which you can read all about on the publication’s website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, March 28th, 2016 Asia, Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Europe, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Recession Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘I Expect The American Economy To Be In Recession Sometime In The Next Year Or Two

Marc Faber Shares Investment Strategy To Combat The ‘Mad Professors’

Despite being out of the loop for a week due to the flu, I see the “crash prophets” are still running at full-throttle. I just got finished listening to an interview of Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber that was released on the King World News- Broadcast February 20. When asked by Eric King about his thoughts on gold, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report told listeners:

In this environment, you just don’t know how far the mad professors will go. Looking forward, we all don’t know how the world will look like in five years’ time, ten years’ time. I would hold some real estate. I would hold some stocks. I would hold some bonds and cash. And some precious metals. I happen to believe that the precious metals have probably bottomed out, but I cannot send you a guarantee for that. I don’t know, for sure.

“Dr. Doom,” as the financial news media likes to call him, added this prediction for 2016:

I believe the stock markets around the world will end the year lower. But it will depend on how much money the central bankers will print.

On February 18, Lucy Meakin, Ranheetha Pakiam, and Eddie Van Der Walt reported on the Bloomberg website:

“Leave a million dollars with a bank, and in a year, you get only something like $990,000 back,” Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said by phone. “I would rather want to own some solid currency, in other words gold.”

Dr. Faber talked more about the yellow metal- and his outlook for the U.S. economy and equities. From the piece:

It’s more tempting to own a non-yielding asset such as gold when returns on other investments are hard to find, according to Faber. He said in December that the U.S. is at the start of a recession and its stocks would fall this year.

Getting back to that King World News show, Faber also directed listeners of explore a particular type of stock (13:15) and area of real estate (18:58) to counter the “mad professors.” A good interview, which you can listen to in its entirety here on the King World News website.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Meakin, Lucy, Pakiam, Ranjeetha, Van Der Walt, Eddie. “Gold Bulls Feast as More Central Banks Drive Rates Below Zero.” Bloomberg. 18 Feb. 2016. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/gold-bulls-feast-as-more-central-banks-drive-rates-below-zero). 22 Feb. 2016.

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Gold ‘One Of The Best Assets To Own In 2016’?

Gold is making headlines again as interest in the yellow metal picks up due to the recent carnage on Wall Street and other financial concerns. It’s been some time since I’ve checked-up on precious metals, and here are excerpts from two insightful articles I read Wednesday afternoon. Mark Decambre reported on the MarketWatch website today:

Who would have guessed that gold would be one of the best assets to own in 2016? So far, that has been the case- while the U.S. stock market has rung up its worst start to a year and a miasma of economic gloom continues to roll across much of the world.

Gold is on a hot streak, after shrugging off the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increase back in December that should have spelled doom for prices. Instead, it’s on track to gain 5.4% so far in 2016, FactSet data show. True, it’s still early in the year, but if gold were to just tread water for the next 11 months, it would mark the best annual gain in four years.

By comparison, the S&P 500 is down 6.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slumped 7% and the Nasdaq Composite has skidded a hefty 9%…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Decambre added that silver is up 5 percent, platinum is down 1 percent, and palladium is also down 11 percent so far in 2016.

Down the stretch, Thomson Reuters GFMS analysts predict gold could end up having a good year. Jan Harvey reported Tuesday on the Reuters website:

Gold demand fell 2 percent last year, GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters said on Tuesday, but is set to recover in 2016 as U.S. rate hikes arrive more slowly than expected, while concerns over economic growth and yuan weakness stimulate Chinese buying.

In 2016 GFMS sees gold prices, currently near $1,100 an ounce, recovering to above $1,200 an ounce by year-end, and averaging $1,164 an ounce in the full year. Gold demand is expected to grow by 5 percent this year, it said…

Mine supply is set to keep falling after posting its largest quarterly decline since 2008 in the last quarter, while lower prices are expected to stimulate retail demand, and central bank buying will remain supportive…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Speaking of “mine supply,” I’m hearing more talk of “peak gold” these days, which is something I’ll have to look into.

Good news for gold these days. Which means mainstream (financial) media outlets will start beating up the yellow metal again shortly.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Sources:

Decambre, Mark. “Gold has been one of Wall Street’s best bets early in 2016.” MarketWatch. 27 Jan. 2016. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-bugs-have-been-crushing-it-in-2016-relative-to-stock-markets-2016-01-27). 27 Jan. 2016.

Harvey, Jan. “Gold eyes 2016 rebound on slower rate hikes, Chinese demand – GFMS.” Reuters. 26 Jan. 2017. (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gfms-gold-idUSKCN0V411O). 27 Jan. 2017.

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Wednesday, January 27th, 2016 Asia, Banking, Commodities, Currencies, Interest Rates, Investing, Mainstream Media, Precious Metals, Stocks, Wall Street Comments Off on Gold ‘One Of The Best Assets To Own In 2016’?

Latest U.S. Recession Forecasts

To wrap up Tuesday’s focus on financial matters, I thought I’d take a look at the latest recession forecasts being made on various mainstream media outlets. From a Reuters.com article last Friday:

A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. The U.S. economy ground to a virtual standstill in the fourth quarter of last year, according to many estimates, and the manufacturing sector is already in recession.

Earlier this week, economists at Citi said the risk of a global recession was rising, Morgan Stanley put the probability at 20 percent in a worst case scenario, and French bank Societe Generale said it was 10 percent and rising

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’ll get back to Citi’s eye-opening forecast in just a minute. From a different Reuters piece that was also published on January 22:

World stock market losses are approaching $8 trillion so far this year and investors last week poured the most money into government bond funds in a year, suggesting they fear the global economy could tip into recession, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said on Friday.

The bank’s U.S. economists also said on Friday that the likelihood of the world’s largest economy entering a recession in the coming year has risen to 20 percent from 15 on percent…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

From Bloomberg.com Sunday:

The median probability for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months stood at 19 percent in this month’s Bloomberg survey of economists. While that’s the highest since February 2013, the median response of 36 economists put the likeliest year for a contraction as 2018, unchanged from the previous two months…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Finally, there’s this from the CNNMoney website this afternoon:

America’s economy is not in a recession, but fears of one are growing fast.

The chance of the U.S. sinking into a full-blown recession now stand at 18%, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists this week.

That’s nearly double what the nation’s top economic policymaker predicted only a month ago.

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen put the probability of a recession in 2016 at about 10% during her December press conference after the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in years.

She has said repeatedly that she thinks a recession is not on the horizon…

Citigroup predicted a 65% chance of a U.S. recession, a call that was so eyebrow raising that Yellen herself felt the need to swat it away, calling it “absolutely” wrong…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

To recap all those predictions regarding the chance for recession in 2016:

• Janet Yellen- 10%
• Societe Generale- 10% and rising
• CNNMoney survey of economists- 18%
• Bloomberg survey economists- 19%
• Morgan Stanley- 20% in a worst-case scenario
• Bank of America/Merrill Lynch- 20%
• Citi- 65%

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

“Nearly $8T wiped off world stocks in Jan, US recession chances rising: BAML.” Reuters. 22 Jan. 2016. (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/22/probability-of-us-recession-rises-to-20-pct-baml.html). 26 Jan. 2016.

Leong, Richard. “Morgan Stanley still sees 20 percent chance of U.S. recession.” Reuters. 22 Jan. 2016. (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-morganstanley-idUSKCN0V01ZZ). 26 Jan. 2016.

Jackson, Anna-Louise and Wang, Lu. “Worried About a U.S. Recession? You Shouldn’t Be.” Bloomberg. 24 Jan. 2016. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/deeper-dive-into-market-monsoon-shows-recession-alert-on-mute). 26 Jan. 2016.

Long, Heather. “U.S. recession cries get louder.” CNNMoney. 26 Jan. 2016. (http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/26/news/economy/us-economy-recession-chance/). 26 Jan. 2016.

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Tuesday, January 26th, 2016 Banking, Federal Reserve, Recession Comments Off on Latest U.S. Recession Forecasts
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This project dedicated to St. Jude
Patron Saint of Desperate Situations



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RSS Chris Hill’s Other Blog: Offshore Safe Deposit Boxes

  • Thoughts On Safe Deposit Box Article By The Straits Times
    Yesterday I came across an article on The Straits Times (Singapore) website entitled “Time to part ways with safe deposit boxes.” Business editor Lee Su Shyan wrote Sunday: Growing up, having a safe deposit box symbolised financial adulthood, even more than scoring that exclusive credit card. But that’s not a view shared by many nowadays. […]
  • Next Degussa Numis Day To Take Place February 23, 24
    Speaking of numismatics this morning, Degussa, a leading international player in the precious metals world which also offers safe deposit boxes (for customers) at branches in Germany, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland, has posted information about the next Numis Day (first blogged about here) at their Geneva and Zurich showrooms. From their website: The Next Numis […]
  • Related Reading: Precious Metals, Collectible Coins Have Shined In The New Millenium
    Just recently, I brought up a MarketWatch piece that focused on rare coins as investments. Collectible coins are often placed in safe deposit boxes for safekeeping. Today, I want to point out a February 2 article on the website of Numismatic News that analyzed the performance of precious metals against U.S. stocks from the end […]
  • Latest Offshore Safe Deposit Box Promotions
    Here are the latest limited-time specials from offshore safe deposit box facilities listed on this blog’s sister site (link included to web page where each promotion is displayed): Asia Titanium Safe Deposit Box (Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan, and Tawau in Sabah, Malaysia)- “Senior citizens 60 years old and above enjoy 25% off safe deposit box rental.” […]
  • List Of Offshore Private Vaults Updated
    Updates have recently been performed on the list of private, non-bank vaults outside the United States (offering safe deposit boxes/lockers at a minimum) located on this blog’s sister site- Offshore Private Vaults. Safe deposit facilities now open for business have been added under the following countries: -Germany (pro aurum, Bad Homburg) -Hong Kong (UltraVault by […]