China

China Gold Demand To Increase In 2014?

“Gold futures on Friday held below $1,300 an ounce as recent data showing a pickup in the U.S. economy helped draw some investors away from the metal and to the stock market, feeding a loss of roughly 3% in gold prices for the week…”

-MarketWatch.com, March 28

No doubt China exerts significant influence on the gold market.

In fact, on March 4, I blogged about HSBC Global Research’s claim of China’s buying of gold jewelry and bullion now being the biggest driver of prices, rather than investment demand from the West.

I also noted the World Gold Council expects China not only to remain the world’s largest consumer of physical gold (roughly 25% of global gold demand), but to increase its acquisition of the precious metal as well.

The WGC isn’t alone in thinking that.

Nat Rudarakanchana reported on the International Business Times website this morning:

Demand for gold in China, which broke consumer records in 2013, could reach new heights in 2014, according to some analysts…

New York’s CPM Group projects that net Chinese gold demand, which sums investment and consumer demand, will rise to over 44 million ounces in 2014, up from 41 million ounces last year…

“But the rate of growth is sharply lower,” in 2014 compared to last year, cautioned CPM Group commodities analyst Jeffrey Christian…

Since 2006, Chinese gold demand has risen at an annualized rate of 20 percent, according to Dundee Capital Markets economist Chantelle Schieven.

Lower average gold prices in Chinese yuan in 2014 could drive more purchases this year, as Chinese incomes rise, she said at a recent New York gold seminar. Schieven also expects Chinese demand to increase in 2014…

(Editor’s note: Bold added or emphasis)

Gold finished today higher after touching six-week lows under $1,300 an ounce.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Rudarakanchana, Nat. “Chinese Gold Demand Could Rise In 2014, In Surprise Call, Though India’s Demand May Have Peaked Years Ago.” International Business Times. 28 Mar. 2014. (http://www.ibtimes.com/chinese-gold-demand-could-rise-2014-surprise-call-though-indias-demand-may-have-peaked-years-ago). 28 Mar. 2014.

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HSBC: China, Not Investment Demand From West, Now Steering Gold Prices

Sounds like China may be firmly in the driver’s seat these days when it comes to steering gold prices. Yue Li reported in The Wall Street Journal’s MoneyBeat blog this morning:

China’s buying of gold jewelry, coins and bars is now the biggest driver of prices, not investment demand from the West, according to HSBC Global Research.

“We would argue that physical demand trends in the emerging world will largely define gold’s price movements this year,” HSBC analysts James Steel and Howard Wen said in a research note.

China alone can take up the equivalent of half of the global gold mine output, while a possible recovery in Indian demand could also act as a boost for the yellow metal as long as the Indian authorities reduce import tariffs on gold.

Investment demand, typically coming from gold exchange-traded funds, had long been considered the sole reason behind the gold’s decade-long bull run…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Long-time observers of gold have recognized China’s growing influence in this market.

A question that’s probably on their minds is, will Chinese demand continue to steer prices?

Consider what Jennifer Schonberger wrote on the FOX Business website back on February 21:

China overtook India last year as the world’s largest buyer of physical gold, according to the World Gold Council. In 2013, Chinese demand for gold bars, coins and jewelry soared 32% to a record high, as China imported 1,066 metric tonnes of the precious metal, or more than one third of the 2,968 metric tonnes of gold produced globally.

And last year’s record wasn’t a one-hit wonder. This year, the World Gold Council expects China to remain the world’s largest consumer of physical gold. While down slightly from last year’s record level, the research body projects China will still gobble up a robust 1,000 tonnes to 1,100 tonnes of gold in 2014. China accounts for roughly 25% of global demand for gold and is likely to boost its share in coming years. The stock of gold in China is less than half of India and consumption per head in China is still catching up to other markets.

The Chinese gold rush comes after China’s government lifted restrictions on gold ownership. Until 2002, Beijing barred citizens from owning gold bars and coins. Culturally there’s been an appreciation for gold for a long time in China, but citizens weren’t able to access it to the extent they have over the past 12 years. Now that China has lifted restrictions, the government has unleashed pent-up demand…

I blogged last April what the demand for the precious metal has looked like in China at times.

In the meantime, the financial mainstream media here in the West keeps running pieces about gold’s imminent demise. And no doubt plenty of Americans will keep believing it.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Li, Yue. “China Now Biggest Driver of Gold Prices, HSBC Says.” MoneyBeat. 4 Mar. 2014. (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/04/china-now-biggest-driver-of-gold-prices-hsbc-says/). 4 Mar. 2014.

Schonberger, Jennifer. “Going for the Gold: Chinese Demand Could Be Gold’s Long-Term Bid.” FOX Business. 21 Feb. 2014. (http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing/2014/02/21/going-for-gold-chinese-demand-could-be-golds-long-term-bid/). 4 Mar. 2014.

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H10N8: New Strain Of Bird Flu May ‘Replicate Efficiently In Humans’

H10N8. I’d never heard of this new strain of bird flu until tonight, when I came across the following from Michelle Roberts on the BBC website. From earlier today:

Experts are concerned about the spread of a new strain of bird flu that has already killed one woman in China.

The 73-year-old from Nanchang City caught the H10N8 virus after visiting a live poultry market, although it is not known for sure if this was the source of infection.

A second person has since become infected in China’s Jiangxi province.

Scientists told The Lancet the potential for it to become a pandemic “should not be underestimated”.

This particular strain of influenza A virus has not been seen before…

I felt compelled to alert Survival And Prosperity readers about this particular avian influenza due to its novelty and its ability to reproduce. Roberts added:

Scientists who have studied the new H10N8 virus say it has evolved some genetic characteristics that may allow it to replicate efficiently in humans.

The concern is that it could ultimately be able to spread from person to person, although experts stress that there is no evidence of this yet…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

“Although experts stress that there is no evidence of this yet.”

Let’s hope it remains that way.

I haven’t heard/read too much about H10N8 in the American mainstream media.

Nor does the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website talk about this new strain of bird flu.

Stay tuned…

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Roberts, Michelle. “New strain of ‘deadly’ bird flu.” BBC News. 4 Feb. 2014. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26020015). 4 Feb. 2014.

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Tuesday, February 4th, 2014 Asia, Health, Natural Disasters No Comments

Peter Schiff Bashes QE, Taper Lite, Gold Bears

“Gold Set for Worst Annual Tumble Since ‘81”

-FOX Business website headline, December 23, 2013

“Gold’s safe-haven role is over: strategist”

-MarketWatch.com headline, December 23, 2013

“I wouldn’t buy gold with my worst enemy’s cash: Strategist”

-CNBC.com headline, December 22, 2013

Not only have I been waiting to hear Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff’s take on last week’s “taper” of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program, but also his opinion on the latest bout of gold selling.

Schiff, who correctly called the recent housing crash and 2008 global economic crisis, just uploaded a new entry to The Schiff Report, his YouTube video blog. Schiff told viewers on December 20:

We have never had more stimulus- both monetary and fiscal- than we have right now. This is record-breaking, Keynesian stimulus. And it’s barely working. Yes, it’s inflating a stock market bubble. It’s inflating a real estate bubble. But it’s not creating genuine economic growth. And it never will. It is not raising living standards for the vast majority of Americans. And it isn’t creating productive, high-paying jobs. And it never will. And Ben Bernanke doesn’t understand that.

Like fellow “crash prophet” Marc Faber, Schiff believes the Federal Reserve will eventually pursue more, not less, bond-buying in the future. He explained:

Why did gold sell off? “Because everything is great.” “Because the Fed has done the impossible.” “It’s tapered and it hasn’t hurt anything.” This is what everybody believes. That the Fed has accomplished its goal. It hasn’t done anything. It’s talked about doing a tiny bit. But again, as far as I’m concerned, monetary policy is even easier now than it was before they announced this trivial taper lite. And the rest of the taper is probably never going to happen because the Fed is going to have to buy more bonds, not fewer bonds, to keep this whole house of cards from imploding.

Now, is gold going to continue to fall? I don’t know. My gut is that it’s probably still finding a bottom around 1,200. There is plenty of legitimate support for gold all around the world. Yes, all the speculators who are convinced that everything is great. The same people that thought it was great in 2007. Or it was great in 1999. That crowd, completely clueless about actual economics, is convinced that there is no reason to own gold. And so, they’re going to sell it, they’re going to short it. But there is a larger community around the world, particularly I think a lot of the emerging markets, central banks, China in particular, that see it differently. And they’re using this opportunity to buy as much gold as they can so that when the speculators and the investors figure out how wrong they’ve got it, and they realize that they need to be buying gold not selling it, there won’t be any gold left to buy because they would have already sold it. And the people who bought it from them aren’t going to sell it back. The gold that China bought- they’re never going to sell it. I don’t care how high the price of gold goes. They want that gold as reserves for their currency because they know the dollars that they have in reserve are eventually going to be Monopoly money. It’s going to be confetti. So they need something real to back up their own currency, and they want gold.

And so, I think that we need to be taking advantage of this opportunity. And don’t be worried about all the negativity that’s out there and all the professionals who are writing gold’s obituary. They’ve written it before, they’ll write it again. But I still think that the bull market has a long way to go. Ultimately, we are still heading for a currency crisis.


“Taper Lite: Bernanke Tightens Monetary Policy by Easing it!”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers: Opportunities In Chinese Railroads, Healthcare, Agriculture, And Pollution

“China unwrapped its boldest set of economic and social reforms in nearly three decades on Friday, relaxing its one-child policy and further freeing up markets in order to put the world’s second-largest economy on a more stable footing…

Analysts suggested the plans are the most significant since Deng Xiaoping led a series of reforms in the late 1970s and the early 1980s. Those changes eventually opened up the country to the outside world and set it on course to become the champion economy of emerging markets.”

-Reuters, November 15, 2013

Well-know investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers has been bullish about the People’s Republic of China for some time now. However, in the wake of the above announcement, the author of Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Marketicon is even more upbeat about the Asian country’s prospects.

Earlier today, Rogers appeared on CNBC-TV18 and told viewers:

Well, I’m excited by what happened. As the Chinese had an exciting announcement in 1978 and in 1993, they say this announcement is to be as significant and as exciting as what happened previously in those two years. So far what I have seen that’s correct- some sectors of the Chinese economy are going to benefit enormously. And as you all know if you can find a government that is going to spend a lot of money or give a lot of incentives to a sector, you should put your money into that sector too. So the Chinese are clear that they are going to do something about railroads, about healthcare, agriculture, pollution. They have made it pretty clear they are going to do something, so I would suggest that people read what they said and then try to find some stocks in those areas.

You can watch the entire interview of Jim Rogers by CNBC-TV18 on their website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

“Pick China over India; oil likely to fall: Jim Rogers.” CNBC-TV18. 25 Nov. 2013. (http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-view/pick-china-over-india-oil-likely-to-fall-jim-rogers_996551-1.html) 25 Nov. 2013.

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Quote- No, Headlines- For The Week

Something different for readers this week. Instead of a quote, here’s two news headlines which made my eyes roll upon spotting them this weekend…

“Dow 20,000 here we come: It’s different this time”

-MarketWatch.com, November 22, 2013

“It’s different this time.”

I’ve lost count how many times I’ve heard this phrase uttered over the years as some asset bubble was being inflated.

It’s not just me either.

From Michael Kling on the Moneynews website back on May 23, 2013:

Time and again, as stock prices continue rising to unsustainable heights, stock enthusiasts have preached, “This time is different.”

And it’s not just stocks either.

From Charles Hugh Smith on LewRockwell.com this past Halloween:

Defenders of current real estate valuations can draw upon an array of justifications, but they boil down to the same one used to justify valuations in every asset bubble: this time it’s different.

As for my two cents? Like I commented on a Chicago Tribune article last week, it’s my belief that after the economic crisis reared it’s ugly head in the fall of 2008, home prices nose-dived, and the “Great Recession” took hold, Washington and the Fed only managed to paper over the situation and monetary policy was designed to inflate a new asset bubble (or two, what the hell) to “save” the U.S. economy and larger financial system. Subsequently, we find ourselves immersed in QE Infinity and what some of those who correctly-predicted the “Panic of ’08″ and housing crash see as new bubbles forming in residential real estate and equities.

I don’t envision this ending well.

Speaking of the Tribune, here’s another headline that made me cackle in disbelief.

“Breakthrough deal curbs Iran’s nuclear activity”

-Chicago Tribune website, November 24, 2013

All I can say about this hopium-infused headline is that I expect one of two scenarios down the road:

1. Downtown Tehran packed to the gills as the Islamic Republic of Iran parades its first nuclear weapon for the entire world to see. Those in the know understand state actors in this region of the world can only salivate over the prospect of having a nuke in their arsenal- Iran included. Realpolitik, people.

2. A mushroom cloud over an Israeli or U.S. city. If the technology/opportunity presents itself, an electromagnetic pulse originating from a nuclear device detonated in the atmosphere over one of these countries (more bang for the buck).

Of course, all bets are off over these two scenarios taking place if some one (the Israelis?) take out Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities with military force.

Question is, is that even possible anymore given the time Iran has had?

Again, there’s others who think the claim that the interim pact reached betwen Iran and China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Russia, and the United States “curbs Iran’s nuclear activity” is one big joke.

Enter Saudi Arabia’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, “the world’s foremost value investor” with a net worth of $20 billion as of March 2013 according to Forbes magazine. Here’s what the Saudi royal had to say about a potential deal with Iran. From Jeffrey Goldberg on Bloomberg.com Friday night:

“There’s no confidence in the Obama administration doing the right thing with Iran,” he told me, with a directness that would make Benjamin Netanyahu blush. “We’re really concerned — Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Middle East countries — about this.”

It is quite something for a Saudi royal to state baldly that his country is part of a tacit alliance with Israel, but Saudi leaders, like Israel’s leaders, are frantic with worry that an overeager Obama will accede to Iran’s desire to become a threshold state, one whose nuclear program is so advanced that it would only need several weeks to assemble a deliverable weapon. Alwaleed, like Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, believes that Iran, in its ongoing negotiations with the world’s major powers, will pocket whatever sanctions relief it gets without committing to ending its nuclear program. “Why are they offering relief?” he asked. “Keep the pressure on. Sanctions are what brought about the negotiations to begin with! Why not keep the pressure up?”

Obama, Alwaleed says, is a man who is in desperate political straits and needs a victory — any victory — to right his presidency. “Obama is in so much of a rush to have a deal with Iran,” he said. “He wants anything. He’s so wounded. It’s very scary. Look, the 2014 elections are going to begin. Within two stamonths they’re going to start campaigning. Thirty-nine members of his own party in the House have already moved away from him on Obamacare. That’s scary for him.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Note Goldberg’s headline for his Bloomberg piece:

“Iran Is Playing Obama, Says Saavy Saudi Prince”

Iran is “playing” Obama and many others, judging by the buzz being reported in the mainstream media this Sunday.

Not me. I just can’t see Dow 20,000 being sustained just yet or Iran’s nuclear aspirations being curbed through diplomacy any time soon.

Sources:

Kling, Michael. “New Yorker: No Stock Bubble- This Time Is Different.” Moneynews.com. 23 May 2013. (http://www.moneynews.com/InvestingAnalysis/stock-market-bubble-different/2013/05/23/id/506002). 24 May 2013.

Smith, Charles Hugh. “What Real Estate Bubble? Oh, You Mean the One That’s Bigger Than the 2007 Bubble?” LewRockwell.com. 31 Oct. 2013. (http://www.lewrockwell.com/2013/10/charles-hugh-smith/what-real-estate-bubble/). 24 Nov. 2013.

Goldberg, Jeffrey. “Iran Is Playing Obama, Says Savvy Saudi Prince.” Bloomberg.com. 22 Nov. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-22/iran-is-playing-obama-says-savvy-saudi-prince.html). 24 Nov. 2013.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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U.S. Pandemic Preparedness Still Lacking

It’s been seven years since I left my job in the public safety field. And back in 2006, there was already plenty of discussion in that arena about the threat posed by pandemic influenza to the United States.

I fear the nation is still not prepared to the extent that it can be for such an event, despite improvements in pandemic preparedness in the last several years.

A number of public health experts seem to agree.

I came across the following tonight by Alvin Powell on the official news website for Harvard University. Powell wrote on the Harvard Gazette on November 15:

Despite world-class hospitals and an army of highly trained medical personnel, the local health establishment doesn’t have the excess “surge” capacity to handle a flu pandemic outbreak.

And Boston isn’t alone. A panel of experts on pandemics and public health said Wednesday that not only is such capacity lacking in Boston, it is in short supply around the world and would affect everything from providing beds for the sick to the ability to make and distribute vaccines.

“There’s just little wiggle room in today’s health care system,” said Anita Barry, the director of Boston’s Infectious Disease Bureau.

Barry spoke at the Harvard School of Public Health as part of a discussion about whether heath specialists are ready to handle the next pandemic. Though many people are thinking hard about the problem and keeping an eye on worrisome developments, such as a bird flu outbreak in China that has killed 45 and an outbreak of the SARS-like Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) that has killed 64, the global capacity to handle a major outbreak is still a work in progress.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Keep in mind something Klaus Stohr, vice president and global head of influenza franchises for Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, pointed out in the discussion. Powell wrote:

Though technology has improved production, it still takes weeks to create a new flu vaccine, months to get it to the public, and as long as a year to make it widely available around the world, Stohr said.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Yet, it might require only 90 days for a pandemic flu to infect the entire United States. Robert Roy Britt wrote on the science news website LiveScience back on April 5, 2006:

A new computer model reveals how a pandemic like the avian flu might spread quickly across the United States and what methods would best thwart the scenario.

Researchers assumed a starting point of 10 highly infectious influenza cases in Los Angeles, then let the model take it from there. The virus spread quickly, peaking in just 90 days with 100 or more infections per 1,000 residents of just about every corner of the country [Animated Map]…

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt has said the country is not prepared for such a scenario.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

“The country is not prepared for such a scenario.”

I didn’t think so.

Sources:

Powell, Alvin. “Underprepared for the next pandemic.” Harvard Gazette. 15 Nov. 2013. (http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2013/11/underprepared-for-the-next-pandemic/). 20 Nov. 2013.

Britt, Robert Roy. “Virtual Pandemic: 90 Days to Infect Entire U.S.” LiveScience. 6 Apr. 2006. (http://www.livescience.com/4027-virtual-pandemic-90-days-infect-entire.html). 20 Nov. 2013.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, November 20th, 2013 Asia, Emergencies, Government, Health, Middle East, Preparedness No Comments

Jeremy Grantham’s Top 10 Third Quarter Stock Buys Revealed

It’s Sunday night, and time to check on the latest investment activities of the “crash prophets.” First up is someone who I haven’t blogged about in a while- Jeremy Grantham. The last time I talked about the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO) was back in late September. However, the British-born investment advisor whose individual clients have included Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney was the focus of a recent piece on the NASDAQ website by GuruFocus.com, which “tracks the stocks picks and portfolio holdings of the world’s best investors.” From the site Friday:

GMO’s Jeremy Grantham runs a vast portfolio of 663 stocks, fair valued at $37.9 billion. The total number of stocks that were new in the third quarter is 99, for quarter-over-quarter turnover of 6%. Global investment management firm GMO has $112 billion in assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2013, and is headquartered in Boston.

Top 5 Third Quarter Stock Buys…

Actually GuruFocus.com lists the top 10.

While I don’t want to steal anyone’s thunder (check out the article on NASDAQ.com here), I do find it interesting Grantham/GMO purchased over 560,000 shares of a Chinese index ETF last quarter.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

GuruFocus.com. “Jeremy Grantham’s GMO Top 10 Stock Buys.” NASDAQ.com. 15 Nov. 2013. (http://www.nasdaq.com/article/jeremy-granthams-gmo-top-10-stock-buys-cm301830). 17 Nov. 2013.

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Quote For The Week

“It’s been a bad week for MSNBC, and a bad week for serious journalism. First, the network learned to regret giving Alec Baldwin a job after he called a photographer a word that is more than a little homophobic. MSNBC have since suspended his show for two weeks. Now, Martin Bashir has scraped the bottom of the proverbial barrel after launching a tirade against Sarah Palin (“America’s resident dunce”) that has to be seen to be believed. And you’re warned: it is stomach churning.

The beloved liberal journalist used his afternoon TV show to deliver a somewhat justified critique of a comparison Palin made between national debt and slavery. His analysis starts crudely and rudely enough, but it ends with a truly shocking suggestion that someone defecate in the former governor’s mouth to teach her a lesson. I’m not making this up. Quote:

Given her well-established reputation as a world class idiot, it’s hardly surprising that [Palin] should choose to mention slavery in a way that is abominable to anyone who knows anything about its barbaric history.

So here’s an example. One of the most comprehensive first-person accounts of slavery comes from the personal diary of a man called Thomas Thistlewood, who kept copious notes for 39 years. Thistlewood was the son of a tenant farmer, who arrived on the island of Jamaica in April 1750, and assumed the position of overseer at a major plantation. What is most shocking about Thistlewood’s diary is not simply the fact that he assumes the right to own and possess other human beings, but is the sheer cruelty and brutality of his regime. In 1756, he records that a slave named Darby ‘catched eating kanes; had him well flogged and pickled, then made Hector, another slave, s-h-i-t in his mouth.’ This became known as ‘Darby’s Dose,’ a punishment invented by Thistlewood that spoke only of inhumanity. And he mentions a similar incident in 1756, his time in relation to a man he refers to as Punch. ‘Flogged Punch well, and then washed and rubbed salt pickle, lime juice and bird pepper. Made Negro Joe piss in his eyes and mouth’. I could go on, but you get the point. When Mrs. Palin invokes slavery, she doesn’t just prove her rank ignorance. She confirms if anyone truly qualified for a dose of discipline from Thomas Thistlewood, she would be the outstanding candidate.

‘If anyone truly qualified for a dose of discipline from Thomas Thistlewood, she would be the outstanding candidate.’ Wow.

There’s a popular myth that all the hate in US politics comes from the Right. Here’s proof that there’s plenty on the Left, too.”

-Dr. Tim Stanley, British historian and author, writing on The Telegraph (UK) website Saturday.

By the way, from Dr. Stanley’s personal website:

I love America deeply and I suspect she is the last hope for mankind (I really don’t want to have to learn Chinese).

Too funny.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Marc Faber Talks Gold Prices, Gold Stocks

I want to talk money the rest of the evening. First up is none other than good old “Doctor Doom” Marc Faber. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report was interviewed by Barron’s last week, and had this to say about gold:

Well, basically, it’s been a very good investment until September 2011 when it peaked out at $1,921 and since then, it’s been in a correction mode. We have a lot of bearish sentiment, a lot of bearish commentaries about gold. But the fact is that some countries are actually accumulating gold, notably China. They will buy this year at the rate of something like 2,600 tons, which is more than the annual production of gold. So I think that prices are probably in the process of kind of bottoming out here, and that we will see again higher prices in future. I think the gold shares are also not terribly expensive at this point.

When asked about gold mining stocks, the Swiss-born investment advisor and fund manager replied:

Yes, the gold shares. The miners. The exploration companies. I think numerous exploration companies will not make it. So if you buy exploration companies you should buy the ones that have already raised capital or that have sufficient reserves that they’ll survive another few years if there is no upturn in prices. Because at this price of gold, very few projects will get done.


“Marc Faber on Gold, Miners, and China”
Barron’s Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers Identifies Money-Making Opportunities In China

Last Sunday, well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers appeared in an interview posted on the U.S. business and technology website Business Insider. Mamta Badkar interviewed the former investing partner of George Soros, and the discussion focused on China. From their exchange:

BADKAR: So what opportunities are you seeing in China right now?
ROGERS: Well, there are lots. The Chinese government is spending staggering amounts of money on agriculture, for instance. Mao Zedong ruined Chinese agriculture. They know it. The place is horribly polluted. They know it. They’re spending staggering amounts of money trying to clean up the pollution in China. You look at these railroads. They’re trying to build a railroad system because it’s much more efficient and they know that. They’re doing some smart things. Tourism- Chinese tourism. They’ve not been able to travel for a few hundred years. Now they can get passports very easily. Now they can take money out of the country very easily. A billion three hundred million Chinese. They’re going to change the name of “Madison Avenue” to “China Avenue” or something when the Chinese start flocking around the world . There are great opportunities in Chinese tourism.


“Jim Rogers Emerging Markets”
Business Insider Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers Predicts Economic Slowdown ‘Sometime In The Next Year Or Two’

While I don’t read Chinese newspapers on a regular basis, I happened to spot an unpleasant economic prediction from well-known investor, commentator, and author Jim Rogers on one of them this morning. According to the Global Times (China) website, Singapore-based Rogers warned of the following this past Saturday:

Addressing a forum ahead of the 17th China International Fair for Investment and Trade, Rogers said, “Quantitative easing and money printing is going to end in one way or the other. It is going to cause problems in the world economy. Sometime in the next year or two, we are going to have another economic slowdown.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

The English-speaking publication added:

He hoped that central banks will stop monetary easing. “Even if they don’t, the market will say we won’t take your garbage paper money anymore.”

But he warned that the withdrawal will cause problems and everybody will be affected, including China.

“America, Europe and Japan, these economies are ten times bigger than China. Even if China is doing everything right, it will still be affected by what’s happening in the rest of the world,” he added.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

I wonder just how big of a global economic slowdown Rogers is forecasting?

Back in early February I blogged about what the former investing partner of George Soros said on the Yahoo! Finance show The Daily Ticker in a discussion about stock prices and central bank money printing:

I mean, this is staggering what’s going on. It’s going to end so badly for all of us. We’re all going to wake up one day with a horrible headache. Probably 2014, 2015. Or the end of 2013.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

“Global economic slowdown is near: investment guru.” Global Times. 7 Sep. 2013. (http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/809330.shtml#.Ui38BH9Lhwt). 9 Sep. 2013.

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Bullish Signs For Gold?

I’ve noticed the buzz surrounding gold the last week or so.

Last Tuesday, August 6, the London P.M. gold spot price was $1,280.50.

Late Monday night, August 12, the London P.M. fix shows $1,341- up by $60.50.

Experienced gold observers know not to put much stock in short-term fluctuations of the precious metal’s price.

Still, why all the recent chatter of the yellow metal in investing circles, amidst the silence of the gold bears?

Chuin-Wei Yap wrote tonight on the Wall Street Journal website:

Gold prices are up 4% in the past week, hitting a three-week high of $1,334.70 an ounce on Monday. A big factor behind the rise is a surge in demand for physical gold in China, some investors and analysts say.

Demand in China, where consumers account for roughly a quarter of global gold demand, hit a record 385.5 metric tons in the second quarter, according data released Monday by the state-backed China Gold Association. That is double the figure from a year earlier, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the data.

Closely watched estimates from the World Gold Council are slated for release on Thursday. Data released in May from the mining trade group showed Chinese consumers bought 294.3 metric tons of gold in the first quarter, a 20% rise on the year.

Yap noted other potentially bullish signs for gold. From later on in the piece:

Demand in India, which some observers expect to lose its spot as the world’s biggest gold consumer to China this year, also is rising. There are signs of renewed bullishness elsewhere, as well. The amount of gold held by SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund that buys and stores the metal on behalf of investors, rose by 1.8 metric tons on Friday, the first increase in two months.

India might have given the People’s Republic of China more of a run for their money concerning gold consumption if it weren’t for the Indian government cracking down on the importation of precious metals. From Reuters tonight:

Indians bought more gold in July than June despite a series of moves by the central bank to strangle supplies, and their insatiable appetite has forced neighboring countries to take steps to curb their own imports.

Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said the government will take steps to curb imports of gold and silver, and look to contain gold imports at 850 tons this year.

The Indian government increased taxes on bullion imports in January and June in an attempt to bolter their sliding currency, the rupee.

Gold. It scares the bejeezus out of some folks.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Yap, Chuin-Wei. “China’s Consumers Show Growing Influence in Gold Market.” Wall Street Journal. 12 Aug. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323446404579008372464837550.html). 12 Aug. 2013.

“Gold eases after sharp jump, still near 3-week high.” Reuters. 12 Aug. 2013. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100957493). 12 Aug. 2013.

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Jim Rogers Predicts U.S. Dollar Calamity By ‘End Of Decade’

Well-known investor Jim Rogers was interviewed by Lansing, Michigan radio station 1320 WILS AM on August 1. The former investing partner of George Soros talked about a number of money-related topics, including his currency holdings and what he thinks the prospects are for the U.S. dollar. From the interview:

While I have very little confidence in the future of the U.S. dollar, I actually own it at the moment, just because I expect more currency turmoil coming in the next couple of years. We’re going to have a lot more problems in financial markets. And, rightly or wrongly, when people see turmoil and chaos, they rush to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. Well, it’s not a safe haven, but I have more money in the U.S. dollar than I’ve had in a long time because I’m worried about other currencies. I own a few Russian rubles because I own some investments in Russia, but I don’t own them by themselves. I do own the Chinese currency. I’m optimistic about the Chinese currency longer-term.

The CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests noted that for the first time in recorded history, all major governments and central banks are printing huge amounts of money, purposely debasing fiat currency and creating what he sees is a “big problem for all of us.”

Rogers added this warning about the greenback later in the exchange:

I would suspect that by the end of this decade- if not before or maybe shortly after- people are just going to stop- international creditors- are just going to stop accepting U.S. dollars and stop lending us money. I would.

America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. And it’s getting worse every month, every year. And eventually, people just say, “Enough is enough.” At least, that’s what happened throughout history. Eventually people have always just said, “We’re not going to lend you any more money.”

An insightful interview, which can be accessed via NumisMaster.com here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers: Chinese Stocks Are ‘Getting Closer To A Buy’

This morning I read a pretty good interview of well-known investor Jim Rogers that took place on June 13 on Fusion MarketSite, the official blog for New York City-based financial services holding company Fusion Analytics Holdings LLC. The former investing partner of George Soros shared the following nuggets with readers:

• Still bullish on China, but noted they have a water problem. Rogers suggested:

If you want to make a lot of money find companies that are working to fix that problem.

• Chinese stocks are “getting closer to a buy.” Rogers revealed:

I bought a few shares on Friday. Their market is getting to the point it should be bought.

• Thinks bond markets worldwide are in a bubble. He’s short junk bonds.

• While still bullish on agriculture, suggested:

Before we talk agriculture, I would look at natural gas, as any commodity that has that big a collapse should be looked at.

• And as for his home these days, Jim Rogers thinks Singapore is becoming the Switzerland of the East. He explained:

Overall, Singapore is doing well. Singapore is becoming the new Switzerland as its sits right next to China and has been helped by problems with offshore havens like Switzerland and Cyprus. It will be the fastest growing money center in the next 10 years.

You can read the entire interview on Fusion MarketSite here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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