China

Jim Rogers: Signs Of Next Economic Crisis ‘Already Happening’

The next two days I’ll be focusing on two “crash prophets” who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis and who see more carnage on the way. First up is the widely-followed investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers, who appeared on the RT TV show SophieCo earlier today. From his exchange with host Sophie Shevardnadze (RT transcript):

SHEVARDNADZE: You’ve been talking about this impending recession for a while now, ready to strike the U.S., for instance, but, you know, we see American economy picking up, the unemployment rate is going down, so- why does it keep postponing itself?
ROGERS: Wait, wait. First of all, you are listening to government figures. You remember the Soviet Union, the government had a lot of numbers, they were very good. The U.S. now puts out a lot of figures that are not legitimate, accurate figures. Look at unemployment, what do they do? For instance, they just stopped counting many people, said they’re not looking for a job anymore – so the numbers are artificial in the U.S. Yes, some parts of the U.S. economy are doing very well. If you’re on Wall St. or if you’re in finance, you’re doing fine, because the government has been printing a lot of money and a lot of debt has been put out. But you go to Texas, go to the MidWest- they’re not doing well at all. Most of the country is not doing well.
SHEVARDNADZE: Alright, but give me something concrete- when do we have to expect this crisis to hit and what’s going to cause that meltdown?
ROGERS: Sophie, for the last 18 months in the U.S., most stocks have been going down. The average is a fraud, because of the few big companies that make the average go up and that’s because the government, the Fed Reserve, Central Bank is printing a lot of money. Stocks are going down in the U.S., most stock are down. So, the signs are already there. Now, unfortunately, they’re not visible, they don’t make headlines, so it’s already happening. Parts of the country are in recession, stock market, most stocks are going down – it’s already happening

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Back on March 28, I noted Rogers had warned on the Nikkei Asian Review (Japan) website eight days earlier:

I expect the American economy to be in recession sometime in the next year or two…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

And earlier that month I quoted a March 4, 2016, Bloomberg.com piece where it was reported:

The famous investor said that there was a 100 percent probability that the U.S. economy would be in a downturn within one year

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Shevarnadze did a good job extracting some investment nuggets from the former investing partner of George Soros. Rogers still thinks there will be a better chance to buy gold “sometime in the next year or two,” and added later in the discussion:

If the dollar goes up, gold may go down. But, if it goes down, I hope to buy a lot more gold, because eventually gold is going to go through the roof. As this turmoil increases and people lose more and more confidence in governments, more and more confidence in paper money, they’re going to look for something, and gold and silver will be a couple of those places. If you’re looking for something right now- agriculture

I have sold short the U.S. stocks and I have sold junk bonds, low-grade bonds, in the U.S., I own shares in China, I have shares in Russia, I bought Russian government bonds, several days ago. These are places that I am looking at, I am looking at Kazakhstan as a place to invest, Iran I’m looking at, Nigeria I am looking at

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Kazakhstan and Nigeria are two markets not often mentioned by Rogers. A terrific interview, which you can read in its entirety over on the RT website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rogers: ‘I Am Looking For More Investments In Asia And In Russia’

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers is bullish on Asia (China in particular) and Russia. As recent as April 6, I blogged about a GoldSeek.com Radio interview (released April 1) in which the former investing partner of George Soros said:

I own Chinese renminbi. I own Chinese shares… I bought recently some Russian government short-term bonds in rubles.

He added later:

There are other places I’m looking at but I’m really not very active at all. I’m mainly just watching the world unfold. Be knowledgeable, be worried, and be prepared.

That last sentence is indicative of a lot of what Rogers has been sharing with the investing public lately.

Still, it’s being reported that the CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. is actively looking for places to put his substantial “war chest” ($300 million estimated net worth) to work. Katya Golubkova wrote on the Reuters website last Tuesday:

Veteran U.S. investor Jim Rogers is looking at possible investments into Russian oil firm Bashneft (BANE.MM) and diamond miner Alrosa (ALRS.MM) as he aims to add more Russian assets to his portfolio, he told Reuters…

“If they (Bashneft and Alrosa) are not under sanctions, I will take a look – as I said, I am looking for more investments in Asia and in Russia but I am an American and I have to be a little bit careful.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Golubkova added:

He already has interests in Russian state airline Aeroflot (AFLT.MM), the Moscow Exchange (MOEX.MM) and fertilizer producer PhosAgro (PHOR.MM). He owns some exchange traded funds (ETFs) and is investing in Russian treasury bonds.

“I am looking for more investments in Russia. I am trying to buy into a Russian tourist company, I am optimistic about Russian tourism,” Rogers said, adding that he was also looking to buy more stocks of Russian agriculture companies

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

A little over a year ago, I discussed an April 6, 2015, Reuters piece in which Yelena Orekhova and Olga Popova wrote:

Russia could now be “the right place at the right time” for investors, he said. His own portfolio consists largely of Russian shares, he said, among them fertiliser company Phosagro , airline Aeroflot and the Moscow Exchange…

About those “Russian government short-term bonds in rubles” mentioned a week-and-a-half ago, Rogers expounded in the April 12, 2016, Reuters article:

“If I got a chance I would probably buy more,” Rogers said, adding that he was only investing in Russian rouble bonds, not Eurobonds.

“I want to buy rouble bonds, I am more optimistic about rouble bonds than I am in Eurobonds. Rouble bonds have much higher yields.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Nice work by Reuters for staying on top of Rogers’ (potential) Russian investments.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Goubkova, Katya. “Veteran U.S. investor Rogers looks to add more Russia to portfolio.” Reuters. 12 Apr. 2016. (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rogers-idUSKCN0X90SC). 17 Apr. 2016.

Jim Rogers’ latest book…

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Jim Rogers: ‘We’re Certainly Going To Have Worse Times Than We’ve Had In Our Lifetime’

Let’s talk finance and investing for the remainder of the day. Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers recently made an appearance on GoldSeek.com Radio, and in the April 1, 2016, broadcast, the former investing partner of George Soros talked about several topics including a coming U.S. financial crash, where he’s putting his money these days, and the prospect of another buying opportunity with gold. On a coming crash, from the exchange with host Chris Waltzek:

WALTZEK: You know you’ve mentioned that this could be the “last rally.” I put that in quotes and we’re seeing again signs of that. But these price-to-earnings ratios, the CAPE ratios, some of our individual stocks 300, 500-priced-to- earnings. I mean, they’re priced to perfection for eternity. Could this lead to maybe a 1929-style scenario, or are we in worse or more dangerous water?
ROGERS: Chris, we’re certainly going to have worse times than we’ve had in our lifetimes. How bad it is? I expect it to be, well to repeat, worse than anything we’ve had in our lifetime, because the debt is like nothing it’s ever been in recorded history. America is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Higher and higher. But so does everybody else’s debt. So the next time around- yes, it’s going to be very, very disastrous. The only hope Chris is that somehow the world survives the next time around. Well we won’t survive the one after that, I assure you, because the debt will be so much higher, money printing will be so much worse. We’re going to live in very interesting times, which as you know, a Chinese curse to live in interesting times.

Regarding where the Singapore-based investor is putting his money:

WALTZEK: So give us an idea then where those funds of yours are headed and where you feel safe right now.
ROGERS: I own a lot of U.S. dollars, not because it’s going to be a horrible currency in the end, but with the bad times coming many people will put their money in what they consider safe assets or safe havens, and many people think the U.S. dollar is a safe haven. Compared to the rest of the world- yeah, it is a safe haven compared to the yen or the euro or other currencies. So I own U.S. dollars. I own Chinese renminbi. I own Chinese shares. I’m short in the U.S. I’m long agriculture. I bought recently some Russian government short-term bonds in rubles. I own some gold and silver which I have for years- I haven’t bought any recently. Some stocks that I’ve owned for twenty or thirty years- I don’t see any reason to sell them since I bought them so long ago. That’s basically, off the top of my head, where my investments are.

On the prospect of another buying opportunity in gold, Rogers said:

I’m not rushing in to buy. I still expect a better opportunity to buy gold sometime in the next two or three years. If that happens, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more. If it doesn’t happen, I own some gold, so I’ll make money. But I’m still waiting for my… another opportunity.

The CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. shared with listeners:

There are other places I’m looking at but I’m really not very active at all. I’m mainly just watching the world unfold. Be knowledgeable, be worried, and be prepared.

“Be knowledgeable, be worried, and be prepared.” Wise words to digest.


“GSR interviews JIM ROGERS – March 31, 2016 Nugget”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rogers Gone Fetal?

Back on February 24, I blogged about a three-part interview of investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers by The Sovereign Society. In the February 10 segment, Rogers informed listeners:

I stopped buying stocks anywhere in the world last August… I see horrible problems in the world’s financial markets for a couple of years, so I’m not buying anywhere, including China…

Earlier today, I spotted another interview of the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund. In his exchange with the ET Now business/financial channel (India), Rogers reiterated this pull-back in investing in anticipation of economic upheaval. Discussing India:

ET Now: Spending is something governments world over are doing. So why are you singling India out?

ROGERS: No. Listen, I’ve sold a lot of countries. I sold Japan. At the same time nobody called me up and said, “Why did you sell Japan?” No, no- I’ve sold several countries last summer. I am not singling out India. I have investments in very few countries because of the debt. And there is going to be a big crisis coming up in the next year or two. But it’s not just India…


“ET NOW Exclusive : Jim Rogers”
YouTube Video

“And there is going to be a big crisis coming up in the next year or two.”

Rogers is one of the shrewdest investors in the world. I’m guessing he’s keeping his powder dry for when the “blood is running in the streets.”

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rogers Interviewed By The Sovereign Society

Earlier this week I finally got the chance to listen to a three-part interview of investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers by The Sovereign Society’s editorial director JL Yastine. Released on The Sovereign Investor Daily website over three days beginning February 9, 2016, their exchange provided significant information about Rogers’ investing views, activity, and strategy going forward. From the Singapore-based investor each day:

February 9

• Revealed he shorted “top” tech stocks
• Discussed outlook for U.S economy
• Implicated Federal Reserve and Washington, D.C., as “culprit” for financial woes, saying:

If you have to have a single culprit- and it’s rare that you can have a single culprit in something like this- it would be the Federal Reserve and Washington, D.C. The Federal Reserve has printed staggering amounts of money. This had interest rates at historic lows. They have never been this low. At the same time, Congress, of course, has spent billions of dollars we don’t have. So with the Fed and Congress running up staggering debts and printing lots of money, we’ve had an artificial situation for eight years now, and we’re going to pay the price. And we’re starting to pay the price now.

• Going forward, the former trading partner of George Soros predicted:

Somewhere along the line, the market will be down 13 percent, 23 percent, you pick the number, the Fed will get a huge number of phone calls saying you’ve got to save the world. These are academics and bureaucrats as you know working for the Federal Reserve- they don’t know what they’re doing. And so they will panic, and they will do something to save us all, whether it’s lower interest rates again, or print more money, or buy more- who knows what they’ll do? They’re going to do something to try to save the markets when the problems come. The markets will rally, the markets will have a nice rally, but that rally will not last, because we’re getting past to the point of no return. There’s not much we can do now given the massive amounts of money that’s been printed.

February 10

• Talked about the U.S. dollar, noting:

I own the dollar. I expect it to go higher. It could well turn into a bubble before it’s over, depending how bad the financial turmoil is.

• Talked about crude oil, revealing:

I don’t see enough panic yet in oil for me to step in. It does seem to be making a complicated bottom.

• Discussed China, saying:

I stopped buying stocks anywhere in the world last August… I see horrible problems in the world’s financial markets for a couple of years, so I’ not buying anywhere, including China…

I do own renminbi… and if it goes down a lot, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more.

• Shared thoughts on gold, insisting:

I’m not a mystic about gold. In my view gold is nothing more than another asset that can be bought and sold. I do own it. I hedged some of my gold about the time I spoke to you. But if it goes down more, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more.

February 11

• Shared an “endgame” forecast:

It’s not going to end very nicely at all… It’s going to end very badly, for all of us. We had our financial problem in 2008 because of debt. Well, the debt now is much, much, much higher than then. The Federal Reserve alone balance sheet is up 600 percent in eight years. So the debt is skyrocketing everywhere. It’s going to end badly. The next financial crisis we have, or semi-crisis, is going to be worse than 2008 in most parts of the world.

• Shared expectations of how the markets will play out, saying:

What I expect to happen is, the U.S. dollar is going to go higher. Gold will go lower. Markets will go lower. At some point, like I said, the dollar will get overpriced, maybe even a bubble. At which point I hope I’m smart enough to sell my U.S. dollars. Gold often goes down when the dollar goes up. So the dollar will be up, gold will be down, and I will say “A-ha! I’m going to sell my dollars now and buy gold.” But it might be something else. It might be renminbi. If the renmibi’s down, and the renminbi’s convertible by then, then maybe I will buy renminbi when I get out of my dollars. Gold, in my view, will probably wind up in a bubble before this is over. But in the meantime I’m waiting to buy it lower, because the bubble is maybe a few years away.

• Gave advice for protecting wealth in “the coming hard times”

On that last bullet point, since I don’t want to steal The Sovereign Society’s thunder, head on over to the corresponding links to watch the entire interview. Great stuff.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rogers: ‘We Are Going To Have A Big Problem Next Time We Have A Setback And It Is Coming In 2016-2017’

Famous investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers just spoke to Bloomberg TV India’s Sunanda Jayaseelan, Piyush Jain, and Pronoy Nath Banerji about the worldwide financial turmoil going on at the beginning of 2016. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about a number of topics, but his warnings about the global economy in the next few years and his discussion of what he is/isn’t investing in these days was particularly interesting. Rogers said (per a transcript published on the Bloomberg TV India website earlier today):

This year and next year we are going to see serious economic problems worldwide and when there is a problem demand goes down…

I am not buying gold yet. I am not buying anything—stocks, commodities or bonds for that matter. I am sitting and watching. I am short on US and long on China. I would expect more problems, more turmoil and that would present opportunities eventually…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

On U.S. stocks, the Singapore-based investor predicted:

The world is going to have problems. In America that used to be the main market, it has not got a serious stock market set back in the past 6-7 years. That is very unusual. Normally market corrects 15-20 per cent every year or so. We haven’t had corrections like that because of the artificial money printing by the central bank. We are going to have a big problem next time we have a setback and it is coming in 2016-2017

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Two weeks ago, I blogged about a recent exchange between the chairman of Rogers Holdings and James West, publisher/editor of the Midas Letter. Rogers revealed in that interview he was short the U.S. stock market, “the nine or ten stocks that never go down – Amazon, Netflix… those things.” He was also short junk bonds, but owns “a lot of U.S. dollars.”

Like I said, Rogers talked about a number of subjects with that Bloomberg TV India crew, including China, India, commodities, and currencies. You can read the entire transcript of their exchange on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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GoldSilver.com’s Mike Maloney Predicts U.S. Currency Crisis ‘Before The End Of This Decade’

One “crash prophet” who I check in on from time to time is Mike Maloney, a precious metals expert, advisor, and author who runs California-based GoldSilver.com (specializing in the instruction of precious metals investing and providing world-class gold/silver dealer services). This afternoon I watched two videos in which he was featured, and thought I should share his observations with Survival And Prosperity readers.

First off, in a video just uploaded onto his YouTube channel Tuesday, Mike Maloney informed viewers:

I’m making this video because I’ve noticed a major shift in the markets lately. Every trader, every investor, everybody in the world is looking at this. This is the Wilshire 5000 but the S&P or the Dow- they all look the same. There’s these major topping patterns, and we’ve put in a third, what looks like to everybody, a major topping pattern. And what we’re seeing is more, very, very large customers- people that are cashing out of the stock markets and going into gold and silver…

Here at GoldSilver, what we’re seeing is a shift from a whole lot of smaller purchases to some very, very big purchases coming in. It’s highly unusual. And what I get out of it is that people are scared. So I just wanted to update everybody on the markets, to me, look like they are topping out…


“Markets Topping Out, Large Investors Run To Gold – Mike Maloney”
YouTube Video

In the second video, Mike Maloney focuses on the “big picture.” Speaking to investment newsletter publisher Jay Taylor on his web-based radio show Turning Hard Times into Good Times, Maloney said in a video uploaded on YouTube on January 20:

I believe we’re going to have a currency crisis before the end of this decade. But everyone is going to feel it. And only precious metals investors are going to benefit from it…

Taylor asked Maloney:

I recall a discussion you and I and my friend Ian Gordon had up there in Vancouver two or three years ago in which you were almost in complete agreement with Ian’s views that we were heading into a deflationary implosion the likes of which probably would make the 1930s look like child’s play. Are you still of that view? And if so, isn’t the dollar then a store of value if we’re in a deflationary environment?

Maloney responded:

Yes it will be temporarily. It’s going to be the beneficiary. This will probably start out of China or Europe and there will be this temporary flight to what people have been taught is this safe haven- which is U.S. Treasury bonds. And that will make the dollar the beneficiary of this temporary event. But we are in for a global deflationary episode. And so the dollar will rise temporarily… And so you’re going to see one last pop in the dollar probably, but then you’re going to see gold take off like a rocket

Maloney envisions this deflationary event turning into a hyperinflationary episode. He finished the interview with the following:

I think the markets have topped right now. And we are in the space where over the next few years we’re going to see a really big crash…

What you’re going to probably see is a short-term dip in precious metals and you have to use- to me, I’m using this to buy. I think gold under $2,000 is just a bargain-and-a-half. So if you can buy down near $1,000, or if it does dip under $1,000- I don’t think you’re going to be able to get a whole lot of physical for under $1,000 but the stocks will be a bargain. This is the time right now. Before gold starts to spike is when you want to buy, not after. Then, it’s going to take off like a rocket one of these days and never look back…


“Michael Maloney-The Greatest Crisis in the History of Mankind is here!”
YouTube Video

“Pop in the dollar.” “Short-term dip in precious metals.” Sound familiar?

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Maloney’s recently-revised (September 2015) gold and silver investing book…

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Confidence In U.S. Government Plummeting?

Last night in a discussion about gold, I brought up Martin Armstrong, economist at Armstrong Economics (and former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd.) and the creator of the Economic Confidence Model, and something he said about the yellow metal two weeks ago. From his January 14 blog post:

I have stated this many times, so here it goes again: Gold rises when people lose confidence in government.

Survival And Prosperity readers are probably familiar with the myriad of poll/survey results showing Main Street has been fed up with the nation’s policymakers for some time now. But this morning, I’m going to examine if that confidence may be eroding more significantly than in recent times. I do this because:

1. I just came across some disturbing survey results in my research this week which suggests confidence in the U.S. government may be plummeting

2. If this confidence is almost to the point of being “shot,” then perhaps gold is getting closer to another sustained run-up in price

Aimee Picchi reported on the CBS News website Tuesday under the headline “Americans hate the U.S. government more than ever”:

A handful of industries are those “love to hate” types of businesses, such as cable-television companies and Internet service providers.

The federal government has joined the ranks of the bottom-of-the-barrel industries, according to a new survey from the American Customer Satisfaction Index. Americans’ satisfaction level in dealing with federal agencies –everything from Treasury to Homeland Security — has fallen for a third consecutive year, reaching an eight-year low.

The declines represent some backsliding for the U.S. government, given that satisfaction saw some improvement in 2011 and 2012, which may have been the result of spending in the wake of the recession. While the comparison with private enterprise isn’t apples to apples given the nature of government services, the findings have some implications for bureaucrats.

“Satisfaction is linked to broader goals in the political system that it wants to maximize, like confidence and trust,” said Forrest Morgeson, director of research at the ACSI. “It’s much more difficult to govern if the entire population dislikes you.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Picchi noted more than 2,000 people took part in that survey.

It’s not just confidence in government that may be in real trouble these days. Yale economist Robert Shiller, who correctly-called the dot-com and housing busts of the last decade, was interviewed last week in Davos, Switzerland, by Tom Keene of the Bloomberg TV show Bloomberg Surveillance. From their exchange:

KEENE: What is the state of our confidence now in our economics and business system?
SHILLER: It’s kind of obvious that it’s weakening.
KEENE: It’s fragile.
SHILLER: It’s fragile, and things that ought to be good news like lower oil prices are disruptive in the short run. But people are over-focused on them in valuing long-term assets like corporate stocks. So I think that the markets are driven by these perceived important facts. I think China is not as important to the U.S. economy as it appears to be. And one thing that news media people have to do- I assume you do this- is resist some of this over-hyping…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Yale’s Shiller: Markets Over-focused on China, Oil”
Bloomberg Video

Interesting comment about China. I pointed out earlier this week that Shiller’s fellow “crash prophets” Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff think the Chinese are being made scapegoats by the U.S. for Wall Street’s dismal performance this year.

And how about Dr. Shiller getting in a shot at the news media for their “over-hyping”? Serves them right considering the grief they gave the now Nobel Prize winner for having the “audacity” to point out the U.S. housing bubble last decade.

But getting back to the task at hand. Confidence in both government and the economy appears to have taken a hit lately. And a resurgent gold bull market looks promising if Martin Armstrong is correct in his assertions.

Stay tuned…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Picchi, Aimee. “Americans hate the U.S. government more than ever.” CBS News. 26 Jan. 2016. (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-hate-the-u-s-government-more-than-ever/). 28 Jan. 2016.

Robert Shiller’s recently-revised (January 2015) third edition of Irrational Exuberance

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Jim Rogers, Martin Armstrong Predict Strengthening U.S. Dollar To Push Gold Price Down Before Take-Off

Still on the topic of gold tonight, I want to talk about two well-known individuals in the investing community- Jim Rogers and Martin Armstrong- and their thoughts about the yellow metal.

In what might be somewhat of a disappointment to the “goldbugs,” neither is predicting the price of gold will take off from here.

Let’s go back to that Midas Letter interview of Rogers that I blogged about the other day. Rogers, who predicted the commodities rally that began in 1999, was asked if he thought the bottom for gold had been reached, or was he still looking for the price to come down further to around $900. The former partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund replied:

Look guys… I want to remind you that I’m the single worst market timer in the world. I’m the single worst short term trader in the world. So asking me is a waste of all of our time. I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom. I’m still looking for a bottom under 1,000. Who knows if it will get there, but if it does, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot of gold. In the end, gold’s going to turn into a bubble, and it’s going to go much, much higher. I just don’t know when. But I’m not buying gold yet

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Okay- so long-time Survival And Prosperity readers have heard Rogers say that before. On a number of occasions. But it’s what he said next in the interview I found very interesting. Rogers predicted:

What I do expect to happen, is that as the turmoil spreads, I expect more people will flee toward the U.S. dollar – I own a lot of U.S. dollars – but because of that, people think it’s a safe haven. It is not a safe haven, as you well know, but people think it is. So the dollar will go higher, it will get overpriced, it may turn into a bubble. Gold will go down in a time like that, because often – not always, but often – gold goes down when the dollar goes up. So I will sell my dollars at that point, and put it into something else – perhaps gold. If that scenario works – the dollar gets overpriced, gold gets beaten down because of the panic, then I hope I’m smart enough to buy gold or renminbi or whatever it happens to be at that point

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’ve heard this scenario before, one where the price of gold falls more due to a strengthening U.S. dollar stemming from a global flight to “perceived” safety. Do any readers follow Martin Armstrong, economist at Armstrong Economics (and former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd.) and the creator of the Economic Confidence Model? While the jury’s still out on him (for me), I do read his blog almost daily. And if my memory serves me correctly, what Jim Rogers just said sounds a lot like what Armstrong has also been saying in recent times. Back on November 20 he blogged:

Gold is being overpowered by the rise in the dollar…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

He added just two weeks ago:

I have stated this many times, so here it goes again: Gold rises when people lose confidence in government. It has nothing to do with inflation. So, you start to worry about government survival or who’s going to win a war when gold rises — not before.

Short term, we still have the risk of gold going under $1,000 per ounce. It’s going to flip when everything is right — not before. It will probably max out at $5,000 per ounce or perhaps $6,000 at best. That we will not know until we have the low and the projection angle from that low…

Gold will respond ONLY when the majority sees the crisis unfolding. Just because you may understand it and see the logical outcome does not mean that the bulk of the population will…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Very interesting. Which brings up the question:

Have Americans lost confidence in government?

More tomorrow…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Sources:

Armstrong, Martin. “Gold, Geopolitics, & the Dollar.” Armstrong Economics Blog. 20 Nov. 2015. (http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39465). 27 Jan. 2016.

Armstrong, Martin. “Gold- No Time Left For Conspiracy Theory.” Armstrong Economics Blog. 14 Jan. 2016. (http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40680). 27 Jan. 2016.

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Gold ‘One Of The Best Assets To Own In 2016’?

Gold is making headlines again as interest in the yellow metal picks up due to the recent carnage on Wall Street and other financial concerns. It’s been some time since I’ve checked-up on precious metals, and here are excerpts from two insightful articles I read Wednesday afternoon. Mark Decambre reported on the MarketWatch website today:

Who would have guessed that gold would be one of the best assets to own in 2016? So far, that has been the case- while the U.S. stock market has rung up its worst start to a year and a miasma of economic gloom continues to roll across much of the world.

Gold is on a hot streak, after shrugging off the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increase back in December that should have spelled doom for prices. Instead, it’s on track to gain 5.4% so far in 2016, FactSet data show. True, it’s still early in the year, but if gold were to just tread water for the next 11 months, it would mark the best annual gain in four years.

By comparison, the S&P 500 is down 6.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slumped 7% and the Nasdaq Composite has skidded a hefty 9%…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Decambre added that silver is up 5 percent, platinum is down 1 percent, and palladium is also down 11 percent so far in 2016.

Down the stretch, Thomson Reuters GFMS analysts predict gold could end up having a good year. Jan Harvey reported Tuesday on the Reuters website:

Gold demand fell 2 percent last year, GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters said on Tuesday, but is set to recover in 2016 as U.S. rate hikes arrive more slowly than expected, while concerns over economic growth and yuan weakness stimulate Chinese buying.

In 2016 GFMS sees gold prices, currently near $1,100 an ounce, recovering to above $1,200 an ounce by year-end, and averaging $1,164 an ounce in the full year. Gold demand is expected to grow by 5 percent this year, it said…

Mine supply is set to keep falling after posting its largest quarterly decline since 2008 in the last quarter, while lower prices are expected to stimulate retail demand, and central bank buying will remain supportive…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Speaking of “mine supply,” I’m hearing more talk of “peak gold” these days, which is something I’ll have to look into.

Good news for gold these days. Which means mainstream (financial) media outlets will start beating up the yellow metal again shortly.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Sources:

Decambre, Mark. “Gold has been one of Wall Street’s best bets early in 2016.” MarketWatch. 27 Jan. 2016. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-bugs-have-been-crushing-it-in-2016-relative-to-stock-markets-2016-01-27). 27 Jan. 2016.

Harvey, Jan. “Gold eyes 2016 rebound on slower rate hikes, Chinese demand – GFMS.” Reuters. 26 Jan. 2017. (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gfms-gold-idUSKCN0V411O). 27 Jan. 2017.

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Survival And Prosperity
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Christopher E. Hill, Editor

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