fiat currencies

Peter Schiff: ‘The Day Of Reckoning Is Getting Closer And Closer’

Economist, financial broker/dealer, and author Peter Schiff appeared on the Alex Jones Show last Friday. Schiff, who correctly-called last decade’s housing crash and recent global economic crisis, warned viewers of rising inflation, a U.S. dollar collapse, and civil unrest. The CEO of Euro Pacific Capital said:

Most people know there’s inflation. They don’t believe the government numbers or they don’t even know about the government numbers. All they know is that the cost of living is going up. Food is more expensive. Their utility bills are higher. Rent is going up. Health insurance premiums are going up. But Alex, we ain’t seen nothing yet. When it comes to inflation- this is just the beginning. The price increases that Americans have been enduring are only going to get much, much worse… But nobody is going to welcome a higher cost of living, and your best defense against that, as I said, is to protect yourself. To get out of your dollars. To diversify internationally

More and more people- mainstreaming people- I’m hearing people talk who now realize that this is the 9th inning of this thing, this whole experiment with Keynesianism and fiat money. It is very, very late in the game. Time is running out, right? The clock has been ticking and ticking. It is going to stop, and you can see that. The day of reckoning is getting closer and closer

The real drop is not just going to be in the pound, but in all the world’s fiat currencies. In particular, the U.S. dollar, which is at the center of this whole Frankenstein’s monster when it comes to a monetary system. And it is going to implode. And this dollar crisis is going to make the financial crisis of 2008 look like a Sunday school picnic, especially in the way it impacts people’s standards of living…

There is going to be, I think, rioting and looting. Especially when we have a currency collapse. Because I think then you’re going to have shortages. I think the government is going to impose price controls. And I think there is going to be a problem for people to get goods and services that are in short supply…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Bubble Ready to Implode. Massive QE Coming!”
YouTube Video

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, July 13th, 2016 Civil Strife, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Government, Inflation, Investing, Main Street, Monetary Policy Comments Off on Peter Schiff: ‘The Day Of Reckoning Is Getting Closer And Closer’

Lord Rothschild Warns ‘Geopolitical Situation Perhaps As Dangerous As Any We Have Faced Since World War II’

Jacob Rothschild, or 4th Baron Rothschild Bt, OM, GBE, FBA, as he’s known across “the pond,” has issued a warning to investors in RIT Capital Partners, an investment trust chaired by the 78-year-old banker. Lord Rothschild wrote in the £2.3 billion trust’s 2014 annual report (Report & Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2014) under “Chairman’s Statement”:

Our policy has been clearly expressed over the years. Simply put, it is to deliver long-term capital growth while preserving shareholders’ capital; the realization of this policy comes at a time of heightened risk, complexity and uncertainty. The economic and geopolitical environment therefore becomes increasingly difficult to predict.

The world economy grew at a disappointing and uneven rate in 2014 after six years of monetary stimulus and extraordinarily low interest rates. Stock market valuations however, are near an all-time high with equities benefiting from quantitative easing. Not surprisingly, the value of paper money has been debased as countries have sought to compete and generate growth by lowering the value of their currencies – the Euro and the Yen depreciated by over 12% against the US Dollar during the course of the year and Sterling by 5.9%. The unintended consequences of monetary experiments on such a scale are impossible to predict.

In addition to this difficult economic background, we are confronted by a geopolitical situation perhaps as dangerous as any we have faced since World War II: chaos and extremism in the Middle East, Russian aggression and expansion, and a weakened Europe threatened by horrendous unemployment, in no small measure caused by a failure to tackle structural reforms in many of the countries which form part of the European Union.

However, in a world of zero or even negative bond yields, equities may well remain the destination of choice for investors. Furthermore, the majority of companies are reporting profits exceeding forecasts together with steady earnings growth. In Europe, the combination of a more competitive Euro, an aggressive programme of quantitative easing and the yields available on equities, may well lead to even higher valuations…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In 2012, it was reported the elder member of the Rothschild banking family took a $200 million position against the euro.

You can read the entire report on RIT Capital Partners website here (.pdf format).

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Wednesday, March 4th, 2015 Bonds, Business, Currencies, Employment, Europe, Interest Rates, Investing, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Religion, Stimulus, Stocks, War Comments Off on Lord Rothschild Warns ‘Geopolitical Situation Perhaps As Dangerous As Any We Have Faced Since World War II’

Alan Greenspan: Gold Is A Currency, And Currently A Good Investment

Back in late October I recall The Wall Street Journal talking about some comments made by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to the Council on Foreign Relations concerning gold. I’ve been meaning to look into what Greenspan, who served as Fed Chair from 1987 to 2006, actually said about the precious metal. During lunchtime, I dug up the final version of the transcript from his visit with the CFR in New York City on October 29, 2014. From the exchange between the president of Greenspan Associates LLC and presider Gillian Tett:

TETT: I’m going to turn to the audience for questions in one minute, but before I do though, I just want to ask though, one of the really interesting chapters in your book is about gold. And there’s been a lot of media debate in the past about your views on gold.

You yourself oppose a question as to why would anyone want to buy this barbarous relic — I don’t know whether John Paulson is in the audience — but it’s an interesting question. But do you think that gold is currently a good investment given what you’re saying about the potential for turmoil?

GREENSPAN: Yes.

(LAUGHTER)

TETT: Do you put…

GREENSPAN: Economists are usually perfect in equivocating. In this case I didn’t equivocate. Look, remember what we’re looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still by all evidences the premier currency where no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it. And so that the issue is, if you’re looking at a question of turmoil, you will find, as we always have in the past, it moves into the gold price.

But the gold price is actually sort of half a commodity price, so when the economy is weakening, it goes down like copper. But it’s also got a monetary characteristic which is instrinsic. It’s not inbred into human beings — I cannot conceive — of any mechanism by which you could say that, but it behaves as though it is.

Intrinsic currencies like gold and silver, for example, are acceptable about a third party guarantee. And, I mean, for example at the end of World War II, or just at the end of it, Germany could not import goods without payment in gold. The person who shipped the goods in would accept the gold, and didn’t care whether there was any credit standing — associated with it. That is a very rare phenomenon. It’s — it’s the reason why, for example, in a renewal of an agreement that the central banks have made — European central banks, I believe — about allocating their gold sales which occurred when gold prices were falling down, that has been renewed this year with a statement that gold serves a very important place in monetary reserves.

And the question is, why do central banks put money into an asset which has no rate of return, but cost of storage and insurance and everything else like that, why are they doing that? If you look at the data with a very few exceptions, all of the developed countries have gold reserves. Why?

TETT: I imagine right now, it’s because of a question mark hanging over the value of fiat currency, the credibility going forward.

GREENSPAN: Well, that’s what I’m getting at. Every time you get some really serious questions, the 50 percent of the gold price determination begins to move.

TETT: Right.

GREENSPAN: And I think it is fascinating and — I don’t know, is Benn Steil in the audience?

TETT: Yes.

GREENSPAN: There he is, OK. Before you read my book, go read Benn’s book. The reason is, you’ll find it fascinating on exactly this issue, because here you have the ultimate test at the Mount Washington Hotel in 1944 of the real intellectual debate between the — those who wanted to an international fiat currency which was embodied in John Maynard Keynes’ construct of a banker, and he was there in 1944, holding forth with all of his prestige, but couldn’t counter the fact that the United States dollar was convertible into gold and that was the major draw. Everyone wanted America’s gold. And I think that Benn really described that in extraordinarily useful terms, as far as I can see. Anyway, thank you.

TETT: Right. Well, I’m sure with comments like that, that will be turning you into a rock star amongst the gold bug community…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’m not sure if the above will mean Greenspan is now a rock star among the “gold bugs”- he’s still considered by many as being a habitual asset bubble blower. But such a high-profile individual within the global financial community lending support to the ideas that gold is a currency and currently a good investment will no doubt anger a number of gold bears and haters.

You can read the entire transcript of Greenspan’s visit to the CFR on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Monday, December 22nd, 2014 Banking, Bubbles, Commodities, Credit, Currencies, Europe, Federal Reserve, Investing, Precious Metals Comments Off on Alan Greenspan: Gold Is A Currency, And Currently A Good Investment

Quote For The Week

“We are really past the point where we even need to talk about whether a crisis is coming; we know it is and we know the general outline of the solution, which is massive devaluation. What we do about that as individuals? That is the real question now. So becoming more self-sufficient and lessening your dependence on the local fiat currency- all that stuff is what people should be focusing on now rather than even bothering to watch the news, I think. I think some kind of a crisis is baked in the cake and it is going to be resolved through massive devaluation.”

-John Rubino, co-author with James Turk of the recently-released book The Money Bubble, in a July 12, 2014, podcast on Chris Martenson’s Peak Prosperity website.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Sunday, August 3rd, 2014 Crash Prophets, Currencies, Mainstream Media, Quote For The Week Comments Off on Quote For The Week

Jim Rogers Predicts U.S. Dollar Calamity By ‘End Of Decade’

Well-known investor Jim Rogers was interviewed by Lansing, Michigan radio station 1320 WILS AM on August 1. The former investing partner of George Soros talked about a number of money-related topics, including his currency holdings and what he thinks the prospects are for the U.S. dollar. From the interview:

While I have very little confidence in the future of the U.S. dollar, I actually own it at the moment, just because I expect more currency turmoil coming in the next couple of years. We’re going to have a lot more problems in financial markets. And, rightly or wrongly, when people see turmoil and chaos, they rush to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. Well, it’s not a safe haven, but I have more money in the U.S. dollar than I’ve had in a long time because I’m worried about other currencies. I own a few Russian rubles because I own some investments in Russia, but I don’t own them by themselves. I do own the Chinese currency. I’m optimistic about the Chinese currency longer-term.

The CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests noted that for the first time in recorded history, all major governments and central banks are printing huge amounts of money, purposely debasing fiat currency and creating what he sees is a “big problem for all of us.”

Rogers added this warning about the greenback later in the exchange:

I would suspect that by the end of this decade- if not before or maybe shortly after- people are just going to stop- international creditors- are just going to stop accepting U.S. dollars and stop lending us money. I would.

America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. And it’s getting worse every month, every year. And eventually, people just say, “Enough is enough.” At least, that’s what happened throughout history. Eventually people have always just said, “We’re not going to lend you any more money.”

An insightful interview, which can be accessed via NumisMaster.com here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Monday, August 12th, 2013 Asia, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Europe, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply Comments Off on Jim Rogers Predicts U.S. Dollar Calamity By ‘End Of Decade’

Jim Rogers: ‘This Is Artificial Floating Of Assets And It’s Going To End Badly’

Lots of Americans these days probably think higher stock and home prices reflect the economic reality of the times.

A strong economic recovery in America?

Try fiat currency printing presses around the world working overtime.

The famous investor Jim Rogers sat down with CNN International’s Nina Dos Santos, host of World Business Today, last Friday. From their exchange:

ROGERS: It’s the first time in world history, recorded history, when all major central banks at the same time are printing a lot of money. The Japanese in December said “we will print unlimited amounts of money.” So the Americans said “we can do that!”
DOS SANTOS: You don’t agree with that strategy?
ROGERS: No, of course not. Debasing your currency sometimes works in the short-term. It has never worked in the long-term. And it doesn’t ever usually work in the medium-term. Debasing your currency- lots of politicians like to do it because it’s an easy way. But then the Americans said “we’ll print money.” And then the English said “well, we’ll print money.” And the Europeans of course. This is artificial floating of assets and it’s going to end badly.


“Rogers: Printing money is unsustainable”
CNN International Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Tuesday, March 19th, 2013 Asia, Banking, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Europe, Federal Reserve, Housing, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Stocks Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘This Is Artificial Floating Of Assets And It’s Going To End Badly’

Signs Of The Time, Part 57

It’s been a hectic morning for me here in Chicago. So I figure I’ll start off today’s blogging with a chuckle. From Jim Mann on the website of The Daily Inter Lake (Montana) this past Monday:

State Rep. Jerry O’Neil, R-Columbia Falls, is spooked enough about the country’s fiscal picture to request that his legislative pay come in the form of gold and silver coins.

In a letter sent to Montana Legislative Services this week, O’Neil cites Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution, which states in part that no state shall “make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

There’s another reason Representative O’Neil would like to be paid in precious metals-based coinage instead of paper dollars. From the article:

The country’s $16 trillion debt “is a warning sign we can only ignore at our peril,” he wrote. “It is very likely the bottom will fall out from under the U.S. dollar. Only so many dollars can be printed before they have no value.”

A dollar collapse. One potential scenario for America if the “printing press” continues to run at full throttle.

Source:

Mann, Jim. “Legislator wants to be paid in silver and gold.” The Daily Inter Lake. 12 Nov. 2012. (http://www.dailyinterlake.com/news/local_montana/article_aaa1e40a-2d2c-11e2-a0a7-001a4bcf887a.html). 14. Nov. 2012.

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Wednesday, November 14th, 2012 Commodities, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Government, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Signs Of The Time Comments Off on Signs Of The Time, Part 57

Which Central Banks Are Buying Gold?

If there’s one question gold “bears” have a hard time answering, it’s this:

If gold is such a “barbarous relic,” how come central banks are acquiring it these days?

There’s doesn’t seem to be much doubt this accumulation is taking place. In fact, Izabella Kaminska wrote on the FT Alphaville blog on the Financial Times (UK) website just today:

What’s more, the case for “gold” is increasingly being linked to future expectations that central banks and public authorities will continue to be large net buyers and borrowers of gold, rather than sellers.

The point is made nicely in this note from Moody’s Analytics on Tuesday:

One strong positive for gold demand is purchases for the reserves of governments and supranational organizations. After many years of shedding reserves, net buying by the official sector reached 456 t last year. The desire to diversify from major currencies may continue to drive such demand…

So, which central banks in particular are acquiring the precious metal?

I recently received this month’s edition of Peter Schiff’s Gold Report (ROTW back on July 6, 2011) and the President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital provided some insight. From the July issue of this free newsletter:

The return to gold is unmistakably the product of a strategic, not merely a tactical, shift in global central banking policy. Central banks in the developed world have now altogether stopped selling bullion. This was foreshadowed by their behavior over the past decade, when they sold even less gold than they were permitted to under the anti-dumping Central Bank Gold Agreements. Clearly the concern about dumping gold was out of step with the trend. But more importantly, central banks in the emerging markets have been buying gold by the truckload.

Since the financial crisis of ’08, nations as diverse as Mexico, the Philippines, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India have led the way back to gold as a primary reserve asset. Russia alone has added an impressive 400 tonnes of bullion to its reserves, most of it coming from domestic purchases. Mexico has added over 120 tonnes, including 78 tonnes from one mega-purchase in March 2011. The Philippines have bought over 60 tonnes, with 32 tonnes coming in as recently as March 2012. Thailand has added approximately 60 tonnes, and Kazakhstan just shy of 30 tonnes. Turkey amended its regulatory policy late last year to allow commercial banks to count gold towards their reserve requirements, adding over 120 tonnes to its official reserves. And bullion imports into mainland China through Hong Kong have been reaching all-time highs.

Finally, loyal US allies Saudi Arabia and India, in what is sure to leave particularly bitter taste in Washington’s mouth, have been adding gold to their reserves by the hundreds of tonnes.

In short, the governments of emerging markets recognize that the global monetary order is on the verge of a reset. These emerging markets are the economic engines of the 21st century, and they’re determined not to be undermined by Western fiat paper.

South Korea might also be adding to their gold reserves soon. I blogged on June 21:

The Irish precious metals firm also highlighted the possibility of South Korea buying more gold in 2012:

The Bank of Korea has said that its current gold holdings are too small and that the BOK may buy more gold this year in order to diversify its foreign exchange portfolio which is exposed to the dollar.

Eugene Kim, chief investment officer at the central bank’s foreign-exchange reserve management group, said its gold holdings are “too small” given the size of its forex reserves, which stood at a record-high of $310.87 billion at the end of May, and that the BOK might buy more bullion this year.

Gold. A “barbarous relic” for sure.

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Kaminska, Izabella. “Propping up the gold price.” FT Alphaville. 10 July 2012. (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/10/1077461/propping-up-the-gold-price/). 10 July 2012.

Schiff, Peter. “The Return Of The Gold Standard.” Peter Schiff’s Gold Report. July 2012.

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Polleit-ly Put, A Depression Is ‘An Inevitable Outcome’

Thorsten Polleit is Chief Economist of precious metals firm Degussa Goldhandel GmbH. And what the former Chief German Economist for Barclays Capital (2000-2012) and Chief German Economist for ABN AMRO told CNBC viewers Wednesday may unsettle many. Framed by the discussion of potential European Central Bank action, Polleit warned:

I think it’s very important to start with an analysis of the underlying cause of the trouble. We live in a fiat money system, or paper money system, and paper money has been expanded for decades. And a whole pyramid of debt has been heaped-up, and this is now coming crashing-down. And I would say a depression is inevitable.

The only question is, whether the ECB and other central banks take recourse to kind of hyperinflation first, followed by depression, or whether they would allow the economy to adjust through a deep recession.

Polleit added later:

Once you start a fiat money boom, it will be followed by bust, by depression. And this is an inevitable outcome, because it’s a kind of “cleaning the slate.” If you intervene in that process by printing up ever greater amounts of money, you may succeed in postponing the trouble- a bit- but this comes at the price of an even bigger crisis in the future.


“A Depression Is an Inevitable Outcome: Chief Economist”
CNBC Video

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Friday, June 8th, 2012 Banking, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Depression, Europe, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Recession Comments Off on Polleit-ly Put, A Depression Is ‘An Inevitable Outcome’

Will University Of Texas Endowment Fund’s Gold Delivery Cause COMEX To Default?

A University of Texas endowment fund has opted to take delivery of close to $1 billion in gold bars, raising concerns this might push the Commodity Exchange, Inc (COMEX), a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), one step closer to a possible default. From Bloomberg’s David Mildenberg and Pham-Duy Nguyen yesterday:

Dallas hedge-fund manager J. Kyle Bass helped advise the University of Texas Investment Management Co. on taking delivery of 6,643 gold bars, worth $991.7 million yesterday, that are stored in a bank warehouse in New York.

Bass, who made $500 million with 2006 bets on a U.S. subprime-mortgage market collapse, said managers of the endowment, known as UTIMCO, sought board approval to convert its gold investments into bullion this year. A boardmember, Bass, 41, said he was asked to help with that process…

Open interest in gold futures and options traded on the Comex typically exceeds supplies held in its warehouses. If the holders of just 5 percent of those contracts opted to take delivery of the metal, there wouldn’t be enough to cover the demand, Bass said.

“If you own a paper contract where they can only deliver you 10 cents on the dollar or less, you should probably convert it to physical,” said Bass.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

While this act in and of itself might not cause a COMEX default, some suspect it could be the start of something larger. From the British financial website The Market Oracle yesterday:

Gold is increasingly being seen as the superior currency in a world of trillion dollar and euro deficits and bailouts. Indeed, the printing and electronic creation of billions and trillions of the major paper currencies is increasingly making gold and silver the currencies of last resort.

Governments and central banks are debasing currencies through bailouts, deficit spending and quantitative easing that is leading to a massive increase in the supply of fiat currencies. Precious metals are rare and finite and this is why major currencies are falling in value versus gold and silver.

One of the largest pension funds in the world, the University of Texas Investment Management Co (which manages the endowment for the Texas teachers pension fund), has realised this and has put 5% of the pension fund into gold bullion.

Unusually, but likely to be seen more frequently in the coming weeks and months, the pension fund has opted to own physical bars worth nearly $1 billion dollars in allocated accounts.

The fund has previously expressed concerns about the counterparty risk in ETFs. However, the reason given for opting for taking delivery of 100 oz gold bars in a warehouse was that if the holders of just 5 percent of COMEX futures contracts opted to take delivery of the metal, there wouldn’t be enough to cover the demand leading to a COMEX default.

The risk of a COMEX default increases by the day and appears to be moving from the realms of a “conspiracy theory” to that of “of course we knew it would happen, it stands to reason and was inevitable”.

A COMEX default would have serious ramifications for the dollar and all fiat currencies as it would further erode trust in central banks, fiat currencies and today’s monetary system.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Stay tuned, folks.

Sources:

Nguyen, Pham-Duy and Mildenberg, David. “Gold-Shortage Threat Drives Texas Schools Hoarding 664,000 Ounces at HSBC.” Bloomberg. 18 Apr. 2011. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/texas-university-endowment-holds-almost-1-billion-in-gold-bars.html). 19 Apr. 2011.

GoldCore. “COMEX Gold Default Risk Triggers Pension Fund to Take Delivery of $1 Billion of Bullion.” The Market Oracle (UK). 18 Apr. 2011. (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27616.html). 19 Apr. 2011.

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Tuesday, April 19th, 2011 Banking, Commodities, Currencies, Government, Precious Metals Comments Off on Will University Of Texas Endowment Fund’s Gold Delivery Cause COMEX To Default?
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