gold

Gallup Poll: U.S. Adults Think Real Estate, Followed By Gold And Stocks, Is Best Long-Term Investment

Gallup just conducted an Economy and Personal Finances telephone poll from April 3-6 where they asked 1,026 U.S. adults the following question:

Which of the following do you think is the best long-term investment — [ROTATED: bonds, real estate, savings accounts or CDs, stocks or mutual funds, (or) gold]?

Their findings?:

-30 percent said real estate
-24 percent said gold
-24 percent said stocks/mutual funds
-14 percent said savings accounts/CDs
-6 percent said bonds

Now here’s something interesting. Rebecca Rifkin reported on the Gallup website yesterday:

Lower-income Americans, those living in households with less than $30,000 in annual income, are the most likely of all income groups to say gold is the best long-term investment choice, at 31%. Upper-income Americans are the least likely to name gold, at 18%…

Upper-income Americans are much more likely to say real estate and stocks are the best investment, possibly because of their experience with these types of investments…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last April, real estate (25 percent) edged out gold (24 percent) in the poll, with stocks/mutual funds coming in at 22 percent.

In April 2012 and 2011, gold (28 and 34 percent, respectively) beat out runner-up real estate (20 and 19 percent, respectively) by significant margins.

Anyone else starting to think that the overall selection of “best long-term investment” for any particular year may be correlated with recent performance?

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Riffkin, Rebecca. “Americans Sold on Real Estate as Best Long-Term Investment.” Gallup.com. 17 Apr. 2014. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx). 18 Apr. 2014.

Jacobe, Dennis. “Gold Loses Luster in U.S. as Investment; Real Estate Gains.” Gallup.com. 16 Apr. 2013. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/161909/gold-loses-luster-investment-real-estate-gains.aspx). 18 Apr. 2014.

Saad, Lydia. “Gold Still Americans’ Top Pick Among Long-Term Investments.” Gallup. 27 Apr. 2012. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/154232/gold-americans-top-pick-among-long-term-investments.aspx). 18 Apr. 2014.

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Peter Schiff Predicts Gold Going Higher Than $5,000 An Ounce

Peter Schiff, the CEO and Chief Strategist over at Euro Pacific Capital, appeared on the CNBC TV show Futures Now on April 15. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and Great Recession, told viewers:

I’ve been buying gold for the same reason for the last decade, and it’s because central banks are creating too much money, there’s too much inflation, interest rates are too low, and so I want to store my purchasing power in something that central banks can’t print. Meanwhile, during that time period, gold has gone from under $300 an ounce to a high of $1,900. We’ve pulled back. I think we are headed much, much higher, because they are not going to stop these presses. They are going to run them in overdrive…

I don’t know the time period. They’re just going to trend higher. They’re going to go a lot higher. I’ve said $5,000. They’ll go higher than that.


“I’m Off Base, You’re Not Even in the Ballpark!”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Predicts Future Fed Moves

Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital released a new entry Monday on The Schiff Report YouTube vlog. The “crash prophet” talked about a number of financial topics, including future activity by the U.S. central bank. Schiff predicted:

I think that with the weakening in the stock market, the softness we’re seeing now in the real estate market- with the fact that we’re going to be getting weaker jobs numbers in the spring that cannot be rationalized away based on the weather- the Fed is going to have come forward at some point and acknowledge which should have already been obvious. That they were mistaken. They were overly-optimistic on their assessment of the economy. That for whatever reason they’ll come up with an excuse to save face- they can blame it on some external factor- but the Fed is going to have to come out and they’re going to have to halt the tapering process, and ultimately reverse it.

How much time there will be between the pause and the reversal?

I don’t know. I don’t think it will be more than a couple of meetings, at best. But that’s what’s coming….

Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bubble and subsequent burst along with the 2008 global economic crisis, went on to speculate what all this might mean for gold and stocks.


“Warmer Weather’s Failure to Stoke Jobs Chills Stocks”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Venezuela Food Shortages Give Rise To Registration

In the 2008 film The Hurt Locker, there’s a part where the main character, a U.S. Army Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) specialist, returns home. While shopping for groceries, he becomes overwhelmed by the enormity of choices and amount available for purchase…


“The Hurt Locker- grocery store scene”
YouTube Video

It was a humorous yet sobering reminder of the abundance of food in our society.

At least for now.

Compare that to present-day Venezuela, where food shortages are becoming a serious problem. From the Associated Press on Tuesday:

Battling food shortages, the Venezuelan government is rolling out a new ID system that is either a grocery loyalty card with extra muscle or the most dramatic step yet towards rationing in Venezuela, depending on who is describing it.

President Nicolás Maduro’s administration says the cards to track families’ purchases will foil people who stock up on groceries at subsidised prices and then illegally resell them for several times the amount. Critics say it’s another sign the oil-rich Venezuelan economy is headed toward Cuba-style dysfunction.

Registration begins at more than 100 government-run supermarkets across the country on Tuesday and working-class shoppers – who sometimes endure hours-long queues at the stores to buy cut-price groceries – are welcoming the plan…

Rigid currency controls and a shortage of US dollars make it increasingly difficult for Venezuelans to find imported basic products such as milk, flour, toilet paper and cooking oil.

In January, more than a quarter of basic staples were out of stock in Venezuelan stores, according to the central bank’s scarcity index. The shortages are among the problems cited by Maduro’s opponents who have been staging protests since mid-February…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I feel bad for the Venezuelans that these shortages are taking place.

At the same time, it’s a good reminder for Americans that prepping for hard times isn’t all about socking away just guns and gold.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

“Venezuela tackles food shortage with ID card system.” Associated Press. 1 Apr. 2014. (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/01/venezuela-food-shortage-id-cards). 3 Apr. 2014.

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China Gold Demand To Increase In 2014?

“Gold futures on Friday held below $1,300 an ounce as recent data showing a pickup in the U.S. economy helped draw some investors away from the metal and to the stock market, feeding a loss of roughly 3% in gold prices for the week…”

-MarketWatch.com, March 28

No doubt China exerts significant influence on the gold market.

In fact, on March 4, I blogged about HSBC Global Research’s claim of China’s buying of gold jewelry and bullion now being the biggest driver of prices, rather than investment demand from the West.

I also noted the World Gold Council expects China not only to remain the world’s largest consumer of physical gold (roughly 25% of global gold demand), but to increase its acquisition of the precious metal as well.

The WGC isn’t alone in thinking that.

Nat Rudarakanchana reported on the International Business Times website this morning:

Demand for gold in China, which broke consumer records in 2013, could reach new heights in 2014, according to some analysts…

New York’s CPM Group projects that net Chinese gold demand, which sums investment and consumer demand, will rise to over 44 million ounces in 2014, up from 41 million ounces last year…

“But the rate of growth is sharply lower,” in 2014 compared to last year, cautioned CPM Group commodities analyst Jeffrey Christian…

Since 2006, Chinese gold demand has risen at an annualized rate of 20 percent, according to Dundee Capital Markets economist Chantelle Schieven.

Lower average gold prices in Chinese yuan in 2014 could drive more purchases this year, as Chinese incomes rise, she said at a recent New York gold seminar. Schieven also expects Chinese demand to increase in 2014…

(Editor’s note: Bold added or emphasis)

Gold finished today higher after touching six-week lows under $1,300 an ounce.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Rudarakanchana, Nat. “Chinese Gold Demand Could Rise In 2014, In Surprise Call, Though India’s Demand May Have Peaked Years Ago.” International Business Times. 28 Mar. 2014. (http://www.ibtimes.com/chinese-gold-demand-could-rise-2014-surprise-call-though-indias-demand-may-have-peaked-years-ago). 28 Mar. 2014.

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Peter Schiff: Gold Fundamentals ‘Great Right Now’ As U.S. Recovery A ‘Myth’

Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff appeared on the CNBC show Futures Now on March 20. The financial commentator and author talked about a number of issues, including the Federal Reserve, gold, and inflation. On gold, Schiff told viewers:

The fundamentals have favored higher gold prices all along. The fundamentals for gold were great at the beginning of 2013. They were great at the end. They’re great right now. It’s just that most people don’t understand how great they are. They believe the myth of the U.S. recovery. They believe that the Fed can actually unwind its balance sheet, that it can end QE, that it can raise interest rates, and that the economy is going to keep on expanding. None of that is going to happen. It’s all fantasy.

We’re going to have QE Infinity. There is massive inflation. And it’s going to manifest itself in substantially higher gold prices.

The ensuing short debate between Schiff and economist/investor/hedge-fund manager Mark Dow about inflation was also interesting to watch. Perhaps those two can set up something “official” down the road.


“Mark Dow vs. Peter Schiff on Gold, Inflation, Fed”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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HSBC: China, Not Investment Demand From West, Now Steering Gold Prices

Sounds like China may be firmly in the driver’s seat these days when it comes to steering gold prices. Yue Li reported in The Wall Street Journal’s MoneyBeat blog this morning:

China’s buying of gold jewelry, coins and bars is now the biggest driver of prices, not investment demand from the West, according to HSBC Global Research.

“We would argue that physical demand trends in the emerging world will largely define gold’s price movements this year,” HSBC analysts James Steel and Howard Wen said in a research note.

China alone can take up the equivalent of half of the global gold mine output, while a possible recovery in Indian demand could also act as a boost for the yellow metal as long as the Indian authorities reduce import tariffs on gold.

Investment demand, typically coming from gold exchange-traded funds, had long been considered the sole reason behind the gold’s decade-long bull run…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Long-time observers of gold have recognized China’s growing influence in this market.

A question that’s probably on their minds is, will Chinese demand continue to steer prices?

Consider what Jennifer Schonberger wrote on the FOX Business website back on February 21:

China overtook India last year as the world’s largest buyer of physical gold, according to the World Gold Council. In 2013, Chinese demand for gold bars, coins and jewelry soared 32% to a record high, as China imported 1,066 metric tonnes of the precious metal, or more than one third of the 2,968 metric tonnes of gold produced globally.

And last year’s record wasn’t a one-hit wonder. This year, the World Gold Council expects China to remain the world’s largest consumer of physical gold. While down slightly from last year’s record level, the research body projects China will still gobble up a robust 1,000 tonnes to 1,100 tonnes of gold in 2014. China accounts for roughly 25% of global demand for gold and is likely to boost its share in coming years. The stock of gold in China is less than half of India and consumption per head in China is still catching up to other markets.

The Chinese gold rush comes after China’s government lifted restrictions on gold ownership. Until 2002, Beijing barred citizens from owning gold bars and coins. Culturally there’s been an appreciation for gold for a long time in China, but citizens weren’t able to access it to the extent they have over the past 12 years. Now that China has lifted restrictions, the government has unleashed pent-up demand…

I blogged last April what the demand for the precious metal has looked like in China at times.

In the meantime, the financial mainstream media here in the West keeps running pieces about gold’s imminent demise. And no doubt plenty of Americans will keep believing it.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Li, Yue. “China Now Biggest Driver of Gold Prices, HSBC Says.” MoneyBeat. 4 Mar. 2014. (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/04/china-now-biggest-driver-of-gold-prices-hsbc-says/). 4 Mar. 2014.

Schonberger, Jennifer. “Going for the Gold: Chinese Demand Could Be Gold’s Long-Term Bid.” FOX Business. 21 Feb. 2014. (http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing/2014/02/21/going-for-gold-chinese-demand-could-be-golds-long-term-bid/). 4 Mar. 2014.

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Peter Schiff’s Investment Advice Before The Fed Reverses, Increases QE

While I’m jonesing for a new entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, I did watch Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on CNBC’s Closing Bell on January 28. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis, told viewers the U.S. economy is actually doing “lousy” and that he thinks the Federal Reserve will reverse course on quantitative easing this year, increasing the levels of “stimulus.” When asked what one should do with their money, Schiff advised:

You should be buying gold. You should be buying mining stocks. You should be investing abroad. You should be getting out of the U.S. dollar. Because ultimately, that’s going to be the big casualty here. When the Fed surprises everybody and does more QE, and people realize the box that we’re in- that it’s QE Infinity, that there is no exit strategy, that exit is impossible, that it’s ever larger doses of this monetary heroin- the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar. You know, an economy that lives by QE dies by QE. We better be prepared for that.


“Yellen Will Reverse Taper and Increase QE”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Marc Faber Shares Outlook And Advice At Barron’s 2014 Roundtable

Each year around this time, the weekly financial magazine Barron’s hosts their investor “Roundtable.” Swiss-born money manager and investment advisor Marc Faber was one of the participants in 2014, and starting on January 18 the publication started disseminating the investment advice of Dr. Faber and other Roundtable members. The financial website Zero Hedge zeroed-in on what the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report had to say at this year’s Roundtable. According to “Tyler Durden,” Dr. Faber:

• Is bearish on U.S. stocks, and the Russell 2000 in particular. Faber recommended shorting the Russell 2000.
• Is bearish on the U.S. economic recovery, recommending the purchase of 10-year Treasury notes
• Has a lot of cash, has bought Treasury bonds, and has about 20 percent of his net worth in gold. Regarding the precious metal, Faber went so far as to “recommend the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF [GDXJ], although I don’t own it. I own physical gold because the old system will implode. Those who own paper assets are doomed.”
• Offered up his investment forecast for Asian real estate, India, Vietnam, and Turkey and it’s currency- the Lira

The piece provided good insight into Dr. Faber’s investment outlook and activities, which you can read in its entirety on the Zero Hedge website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Goldman Sachs Misses Big On 4 Of Last 5 Year-End Gold Price Predictions

Speaking of Goldman Sachs this evening, yesterday I caught their year-end price forecast for an ounce of gold. Jeff Morganteen wrote on the CNBC website Monday afternoon:

Bad news for “gold-bugs”- bullion’s current beginning-of-the-year rally will not only lose steam, but prices could drop sharply by the end of 2014, according to Goldman Sachs’ Jeffrey Currie.

Currie, Goldman’s head of commodities research, told CNBC on Monday he had an end-of-year price target of $1,050 per ounce for gold, a 16 percent drop based from current prices of $1,251. The main culprit? Economic recovery…

I used to blog about these “end-of-year price targets” for gold from the major financial institutions starting back in early 2007, when I ran Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street.”

Not so much anymore.

Why’s that? I’m not sure. Perhaps it was because I felt the many forecasts I blogged about over time weren’t turning out to be too accurate.

After reading that Goldman Sachs year-end gold price prediction, I decided to dig up this particular financial institution’s forecasts- made almost a year in advance- for the last five years. What I found pretty much confirmed my suspicions:

2009 Goldman Sachs year-end gold price forecast? $795
New York spot gold price on December 31, 2009? $1,096.20
Goldman Sachs off (under) by $301.20

2010 Goldman Sachs year-end gold price forecast? $1,350
New York spot gold price on December 31, 2010? $1,421.60
Goldman Sachs off (under) by $71.60

2011 Goldman Sachs year-end gold price forecast? $1,690
New York spot gold price on December 30, 2011? $1,566.40
Goldman Sachs off (over) by $123.60

2012 Goldman Sachs year-end gold price forecast? $1,940
New York spot gold price on December 31, 2012? $1,675.20
Goldman Sachs off (over) by $264.80

2013 Goldman Sachs year-end gold price forecast? $1,800
New York spot gold price on December 31, 2013? $1,205.50
Goldman Sachs off (over) by $594.50

Except for its 2010 end-of-the-year gold price prediction, Goldman Sachs was off by more than $100 in its forecasts for the other four years.

Most striking was the 2013 prediction, where the New York City-based multinational investment banking firm was off by almost $600.

I’m not trying to give Goldman Sachs a hard time over these forecasts. If anything, I want to use this example to share with you a lesson I learned a long time ago observing gold, which is how incredibly difficult it is to successfully predict the price of an ounce of gold a long way out.

And to do it on a regular basis? Does such talent even exist?

I would think if it did, Goldman Sachs would employ it.

Down the road, I’ll look at other year-end gold price forecasts from other major financial institutions and do the 5-year comparison with them. Who knows? One of them might turn out to be relatively accurate with their predictions, and able to do it consistently.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Morganteen, Jeff. “Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs.” CNBC.com. 13 Jan. 2014. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101331595). 14 Jan. 2014.

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Tuesday, January 14th, 2014 Commodities, Precious Metals, Recovery No Comments

Peter Schiff: ‘Bernanke Bubble’ Will Pop Early In Janet Yellen’s Term, Ringing In Dollar Collapse

Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff added a new entry Friday on his YouTube video blog The Schiff Report. Schiff, who correctly-predicted the U.S. housing bubble’s pop and 2008 economic crisis, warned viewers of a collapse in the U.S. dollar instigated by another bubble deflating. From Friday:

What happened two years into the Bernanke term is Alan Greenspan’s bubble blew up. Now, of course, Ben Bernanke, he was part of it, because he was at the Fed for part of Alan Greenspan’s tenure, and so he went along with the bad policies. But the “Greenspan bubble” blew up on Ben Bernanke. The same thing is going to happen again because the “Bernanke bubble” is bigger than the “Greenspan bubble.” The monetary policies pursued by Bernanke were far more reckless than the ones pursued by Greenspan. And therefore the bubble is much bigger. And therefore the damage to the economy when it pops will be much bigger. So just like it hit the fan when Bernanke was at the Fed, it’s going to do the same thing on Janet Yellen’s watch. We’re going to have another crisis early in the Yellen term that will be bigger than the crisis that we had early in the Bernanke term, and Wall Street and the government are equally unprepared. They will be equally blindsided. In fact, I think they will be blind-sided even more. Because if you go back to the Greenspan period, there were more doubters, there were more people like me back in 2004, 5, 6, 7, who were critical of Alan Greenspan and who were expressing that criticism or that skepticism by buying gold and doing various things to hedge themselves against inflation. There’s not that many of us left. There were some critics of Ben Bernanke early on, and as gold up to 1,900. Yes, critics were buying gold and anticipating problems in inflation. No more. Most of those voices have been silenced. In the last year or so, the doubters have become believers. Everyone is cheerleading Bernanke and welcoming Janet Yellen into the Fed anticipating nothing but sunny skies ahead. Nobody really understands that all of the problems that they believed Ben Bernanke solved, he simply exacerbated. The U.S. economy is in worse shape than it was when the financial crisis started. We have bigger problems, and therefore the next financial crisis will be worse. The thing that is going to be different about the next crisis, is I believe it will be a currency crisis…

Instead of being the end of the dollar’s decline, the next crisis will be the beginning of the dollar’s collapse. And I will anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken until that crisis starts. Because as 2014 unfolds, we’re going to get more data like the December jobs data that is going to disappoint and call into question the validity of this recovery, which I believe is an illusion, and not a reality.


“An Imaginary Recovery Does Not Create Real Jobs”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘The Fundamentals For Gold Have Never Been Better Than They Are Now’

Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff appeared on FOX Business Network’s Markets Now show on January 3. Schiff, who correctly-called the recent U.S. housing bust and global economic crisis, shared the following about gold with viewers:

Well, I’ve been buying gold now for 14 or 15 years. And out of the last 13 years, it’s been down once, which was in 2013. Did I anticipate a 28 percent decline in 2013? No. But the fact that it happened doesn’t change anything. What’s amazing is that you have this big down year, and yet hardly anybody views it as a buying opportunity. They think 2014 is going to be just as bad. Because the fundamentals for gold have never been better than they are now. The fact that so many people can’t see that, just makes me even more bullish.

Rogers reportedly “ultra bullish” on gold long-term. Schiff “even more bullish” on the precious metal than he was before.

When asked if gold’s price could rise in 2014 and by how much, Schiff, who’s also the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, said:

We had a pretty big down year in 2013. So I would expect a pretty good year upwards in 2014. Is it possible that we could have two down years in a row for gold? It’s possible. You know, but I don’t think it’s probable.


“A Fed Induced Phony Recovery is Bullish For Gold”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers ‘Ultra Bullish’ On Gold Long-Term

While a good amount of “dislike” has been directed at gold lately, it really ramped up to a new level starting December 30. Later that afternoon I noticed the headlines on the financial mainstream media websites emphasizing (extra big and bold in a number of cases) the price of gold getting pummeled in 2013. For example, there was this on the Financial Times (UK) website Friday:

8:58am On Wall Street from MARKETS
Gold bulls lose faith in bullion’s allure
Last year’s losses battered the metal’s reputation as a store of value
• Gold funds lose lustre
• Gold miners braced for reserve cuts
• Little glitter for gold in 2014
• Gold set for biggest drop in 30 years

All that in one section of the site. The above is pretty typical of what I’ve been seeing the last couple of days across the Internet.

And reading all the negative press, I have to wonder if now might not be a good time to acquire gold. Especially as “crash prophets” Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff are bullish on the yellow metal in the long run.

According to a recent report in a prominent international, web-based publication focusing on all aspects of the mining sector, Rogers, a well-known investor, author, and financial commentator, is actually “ultra bullish” on gold in the long term. Alex Williams wrote on Mineweb.com on New Year’s Eve:

Rogers prefers gold over gold mining shares and divisible coins over bullion, but says “there’s nothing in precious metals that I’m tempted to buy at the moment.” Indian import tariffs he views as the single biggest drag on the gold market currently…

For early 2014, Rogers is therefore long inflatable equities and neutral on gold, but longer term, he expects to short junk and government bonds and is ultra bullish on gold. “Gold will become one of the only refuges around,” he says. “That’s not this quarter.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

It’s no secret that the Singapore-based investor sees gold doing well over the long haul. Back on August 5, I noted that Rogers had recently appeared on GoldSeek.com Radio’s The Gold and Silver Review show. Speaking to Chris Waltzek on the August 2 show, Rogers predicted the following for gold:

Eventually, we will make a new low, whether it’s this year, next year, or the year after. And then, of course, the bull market will resume. And we’re off to the races and wonderful new highs will be made. But it may be a few years from now.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Williams, Alex. “Bernanke has set the stage for the Fed’s collapse- Jim Rogers.” Mineweb.com. 31 Dec. 2013. (www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-political-economy?oid=222934&sn=Detail). 3 Jan. 2014.

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Peter Schiff Bullish On Emerging Market Stocks, Gold

Peter Schiff appeared on the Fox Business Network show Markets Now on December 26. The CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital discussed the Federal Reserve and its announced “tapering” of its $85 billion bond-buying program. Schiff, like fellow “crash prophets” Marc Faber and Jim Rogers, believes the U.S. central bank will eventually reverse course on cutting back stimulus. He told viewers:

The Fed, I don’t believe, is going to carry out the taper talk. Maybe it will begin it, but it’s certainly not going to follow through. And I think it will reverse course, and ultimately be buying a lot more mortgages and Treasuries each month than it’s doing right now. And that’s because without the support of the Fed, long-term interest rates are heading a lot higher, and our economy is too broke to afford it. The highest rate we can really afford is zero at this point. And the markets haven’t figured this out yet- that we have a phony recovery. It’s a bubble masquerading as a recovery.

When asked where people should be putting their money then, the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals recommended:

I’m not bearish on stocks. I’m bearing on the U.S. dollar. I’m bearish on paper. People just assume I’m all gloom and doom. So, I think the stock market’s going down. If the Fed did the right thing for the economy, and let interest rates go up, the stock market would come crashing down. But, I don’t believe the Fed is going to do the right thing. They’re going to keep doing the wrong thing. This bubble is too big to pop. The Fed knows it. So they’re going to keep on supplying air. So yes, stocks are going to go up, but the dollar is going to go down a lot more in real terms. And yes, gold is going to go up. If you really want to invest in the stock market, look around the world. There are much better opportunities in foreign stocks, in the emerging markets, that hasn’t been the place to be in 2013, but it probably will be the place to be in 2014 and going forward.


“The Fed knows this bubble is too Big to Pop”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Marc Faber Shares 2014 Predictions

“Doctor Doom” Marc Faber shared his 2014 predictions on the CNBC/Yahoo! Finance investing show Talking Numbers on December 19. The Swiss-born investment advisor and fund manager predicted the following for next year:

1. The S&P 500 won’t surpass its November 19, 2013, high of 1,813
2. Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, Netflix, and Veeva Systems are “grossly overvalued,” and shorting a basket of these stocks will return at least 30 percent next year
3. Physical precious metals, gold shares, and Vietnamese stocks are “buys”

On precious metals, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report told viewers:

Given all the money printing that is going on globally- not just in the U.S.- and given that the total credit as a percent of the advanced economies is now 30 percent higher than in 2007 before the last crisis hit, I think that gold is a good insurance. So I would buy some physical gold here…

I’d rather buy something that is reasonably priced. And I think gold shares are very inexpensive. So a basket of gold shares, I think, next year could easily appreciate 30 percent.

Dr. Faber was bullish on other equities as well. He said:

I think the Vietnamese stock market, which this year was up 22 percent- which is not bad for an emerging market- will continue to go up.

You can watch the entire Talking Numbers segment with Marc Faber on the Yahoo! Finance website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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