housing prices

Record Net Worth Result Of Fed Blowing Bubbles In Housing, Stocks?

I was surfing the Internet last night when I read something about Americans’ net worth making a comeback. Neil Shah reported on The Wall Street Journal website Thursday:

Americans’ wealth hit the highest level ever last year, according to data released Thursday, reflecting a surge in the value of stocks and homes that has boosted the most affluent U.S. households.

The net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations rose 14% last year, or almost $10 trillion, to $80.7 trillion, the highest on record, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday. Even adjusted for inflation using the Fed’s preferred gauge of prices, U.S. household net worth—the value of homes, stocks and other assets minus debts and other liabilities—hit a fresh record…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

I can’t say I’m surprised to hear of this rebound in net worth. After all, Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff has been warning for a couple of years now that the Federal Reserve is inflating new asset bubbles via tremendous amounts of stimulus (quantitative easing) to spark some sort of economic recovery in the wake of the bursting of the housing bubble and global financial crisis that reared its head in the fall of 2008. I blogged back on September 18, 2012:

In his September 14 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, explained to viewers what QE3 was really about:

This is the plan that Ben Bernanke has. Ben Bernanke’s plan to revive the U.S. economy, and create jobs, is to inflate another housing bubble. That’s it. That’s what the Fed’s got. That’s what it came up with. As if the last housing bubble worked out so well for the economy, that the Fed wants an encore…

How is another housing bubble going to solve anything. Now one thing that Ben Bernanke hasn’t figured out yet- it ain’t gonna work. No matter how much he tries, no matter how much air he blows in to that housing market, he’s not going to reflate that bubble. There are simply too many holes in it, and there is no precedent for relating a busted bubble. More likely, all that cheap money is going to go someplace else…

Schiff asserted the Federal Reserve was trying to inflate another housing bubble.

Instead, there’s suggestions both housing and the stock market look “frothy” these days.

Suppose the Fed did in fact want to inflate new asset bubbles. If the central bank aimed to spread the wealth around in an attempt to jump-start the economy, it doesn’t seem to be happening. Shah noted in that WSJ article:

But the rebound, while powerful, has been tilted in a way that limits the upside for the broader U.S. economy and is increasingly leaving behind many middle- and lower-income Americans…

That means that even as wealth increases, it’s increasingly going to the affluent.

In addition to the affluent, much of the wealth surge is going to older Americans. Both groups are less likely to spend their gains and more likely to save, Mr. Emmons said. Meanwhile, sheer demographics—the retirement of the baby boomers and America’s aging population—are increasing the ranks of the nation’s savers.

The upshot: While American households overall are getting wealthier, the benefits for the economy may prove limited until such improvements reach more people.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

“The benefits for the economy may prove limited until such improvements reach more people.”

I fear another financial crisis will have paid us a visit before such prosperity is achieved.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Shah, Neil “U.S. Household Net Worth Hits Record High.” The Wall Street Journal. 6 Mar. 2014. (link). 7 Mar. 2014.

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CNBC Tries Calling Out Peter Schiff Over Gold Price

Anyone remember those “Peter Schiff Was Right” YouTube.com videos that went viral right after the U.S. housing bubble popped and the global economic crisis really reared its ugly head in the fall of 2008?

Here’s probably the most popular one out there.

Well, I’m convinced a clip or more of Thursday’s installment of the CNBC show Futures Now, hosted by CNBC Reporter Jackie DeAngelis, will be included in a future “Peter Schiff Was Right About Gold” YouTube video. From an exchange between DeAngelis and the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital:

SCHIFF: You’re talking about investors’ demand for gold going down. I would disagree. Because I own a gold company too, Euro Pacific Precious Metals. And we’ve never had more demand from our clients in the history of my company than we have now. I would say speculators, speculative demand, is what went down. I think a lot of people who came late to the gold rally were speculating in gold. They were simply buying it because the price was rising. They wanted to hop on that train. They use ETFs. They use futures markets. So I think the speculators have been flushed from the market in this pullback. But the investors- they’re still there. Because all of the reasons they’ve been buying gold for the past 10 or 12 years- those reasons have never been stronger. And so investor demand continues. We’ve flushed away the speculative demand. But I think the speculators will come back in the next rally.
DEANGELIS: Alright. Well, Peter, let’s step back for a second because you kind of jumped in there on the conversation we were having and I definitely appreciate your opinion on that. But I want to talk about the gold price that we’re looking at right now. $1,383.60. That is the price that we’re looking at at this point. We’ve had you on the show multiple times before, you said that gold was going to skyrocket, you say it’s going to be a bumpy ride and you can’t tell us exactly how we’re going to get there. But tell me today, Peter, why have you gotten it wrong?

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

SCHIFF: I don’t think I have gotten it wrong. You just said I said it would be a bumpy ride. Look, it’s been bumpy, but I’ve been on this ride since gold was under $300 an ounce. It’s not like gold is down from that point. It’s off its highs. But I think what’s going on right now is you’ve got a false narrative out there that the U.S. economy is improving. It’s not. All the data points have been negative. A deluge of negative data came out today. The only evidence of a rebounding economy, is the stock market going up, or the real estate market going up. But that’s not because the economy is sound. That’s because of all the cheap money created by the Fed. That’s the same reason why stock and real estate prices were going up in 2006 or 2007. It is a bubble. The economy, meanwhile, is actually getting worse. And all this talk about the Fed getting ready to take away the punch bowl is all talk. They’re going to spike it even more. They’re going to up the size of QE. But people who are speculating of an early end are getting it wrong. Gold is going through a correction. All bull markets have a correction. It is a buying opportunity.


“Schiff: Gold a Generational Buy”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Robert Shiller: 10 Years From Now, ‘Home Prices Will Be About Where They Are Now, In Real Terms’

I can’t believe it’s been 8 months since I last blogged about Yale economist and housing expert Robert Shiller. Back on September 18, I wrote that Dr. Shiller, who was out there in the mid-2000s warning anyone who would listen about the housing bubble and subsequent crash, wasn’t sure residential real estate in the United States had bottomed-out just yet, noting there already had been 4 attempts at a housing recovery since the subprime crisis struck.

On April 30, Robert Shiller appeared on Yahoo! Finance’s business show The Daily Ticker. Speaking to host Henry Blodget, Dr. Shiller had this to say about where he thought home prices were heading:

BLODGET: And so you have studied home prices going back hundreds of years. You’ve watched the bubble form here. You called the top of that. You called the crash. What do you think will happen to house prices over the next 5 to 10 years?
SHILLER: Yeah, well I wrote several New York Times columns about this. I think it’s hard to say. It could go up. It could go down. You know, in the 20th century, typically, in a decade, real inflation-corrected home prices went up 15 percent or down 15 percent. Usually not because of any bubble or anything like that. It’s just supply and demand, right? The existing home stock might be in the wrong location and the economy is moving somewhere else. So it loses value. Or, then it might be some new interest in owning a home. These things are hard to predict.

But my guess that is, 10 years from now, home prices will be about where they are now, in real terms.

Dr. Shiller also had this nugget for real estate investors:

So it looks like there’s a tilt toward rentals. What that suggests to me that if you want to invest in housing, you want to look toward housing that is suitable for conversion to rental.

You can watch the entire interview on the Yahoo! Finance site here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, May 15th, 2013 Bubbles, Housing, Inflation, Investing No Comments

Redfin CEO Identifies Most- And Least-Vulnerable Metro Housing Markets To Experience Another Bubble

Last week in my Sunday paper, I spotted yet another great article by Chicago Tribune real estate reporter Mary Umberger. It was an interview with Glenn Kelman, chief executive officer of Redfin, a real estate brokerage doing business in 20 U.S. housing markets.

Apparently, Redfin recently ranked 15 major metropolitan areas it perceived as most- and least-vulnerable to experiencing another housing bubble. Kelman told Umberger:

We’ve looked at several factors: income to home-price ratios, ratios of sale price to listing price, the frequency of flips (resales within 18 months of purchase), incidences of bidding wars, and rates of going under contract within two weeks of listing.

From looking at those things, we think there are four markets that are in mini-bubble territory, at risk of price correction: Washington, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco.

At the other end of the list, the least likely to see a correction is Atlanta, followed closely by Chicago, Las Vegas and Dallas.

A new housing bubble. Something I’m starting to hear more of these days.

Anyone remember “crash prophet” Peter Schiff’s warning from last September? I blogged on September 18, 2012:

In his September 14 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, explained to viewers what QE3 was really about:

This is the plan that Ben Bernanke has. Ben Bernanke’s plan to revive the U.S. economy, and create jobs, is to inflate another housing bubble. That’s it. That’s what the Fed’s got. That’s what it came up with. As if the last housing bubble worked out so well for the economy, that the Fed wants an encore.

You can read Umberger’s entire exchange with Redfin’s Kelman on the Tribune website here. Interesting stuff.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Peter Schiff: Fed Creating Another Housing Bubble, ‘Day Of Reckoning’ Early In Obama’s Second Term

First it was “crash prophet” Jeremy Grantham warning:

Courtesy of the above Fed policy, all global assets are once again becoming overpriced.

Now, Peter Schiff is saying the same about housing.

And that America’s “day of reckoning” is right around the bend.

From a March 1 entry posted on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog:

The Fed influenced the housing market during the bubble predominantly by influencing the short end, making it easier for people to take out ARMs. Today, the Fed is influencing the housing market not predominantly by influencing adjustable rate mortgages, but by outright buying 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drive mortgage interest rates down to record lows. But in both cases, it was the Fed’s interference that inflated the prices, inflated the bubbles, and there’s going to be a disastrous consequence when this bubble bursts. Although this bubble, is not going to be, I think, as large as the previous bubble. I think the consequences will be much bigger, as the Fed is not going to succeed in elevating home prices. But what they are succeeding at doing is transferring significant percentages of bad mortgages from the private sector to the Federal Reserve. In fact, the federal government has never been more involved in the housing market than it is today. Not only does the government insure over 90 percent of the mortgages, through the FHA, through Fannie, and Freddie. But now the government owns the mortgages. The Federal Reserve is financing them. The Federal Reserve is buying $45 billion worth of mortgages every month. So the government is the housing market…

Now President Obama, we’s got a bigger bubble going during his presidency, and he ain’t getting out of Dodge either. Only this time, I think, the bubble is going to burst not late in his second term, but early. And the difference is going to be- there are no more bailouts. This is the last bubble. This is the biggest bubble. In my book, The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy: How to Save Yourself and Your Countryicon, I call it the “government bubble.” That’s what we have. This is the final bubble, and there is no bailout. We’re finally going to have to deal with the consequences of our profligacy. And the problem is, because we’ve kicked the can down the road for so long, right? We’ve papered it over with so much inflation, that the problems have gotten that much worse, which means when we finally are forced to confront them. And again, we’re going to be forced to do it. We’re not going to do it on our own. We’re not going to voluntarily check into rehab. We’re going to have to be forced to do it, because we’ve hit rock bottom, and the world has done an intervention. This “day of reckoning” is coming. And it’s not because of the sequester. Everybody is making a big deal about how painful this sequester is supposed to be. Well this is nothing compared to what’s really going to happen when we really have to swallow the bitter tasting medicine to restore health to an economy that is virtually going to be on its deathbed as a result of all the bad medicine that has been forced-fed it over the years by the Federal Reserve, by Congress, to mask the symptoms while the underlying disease gets that much worse.


“Bernanke Almost Comes Clean On ‘Exit’ Strategy”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘Gold Bears Are Making Much Ado About Nothing’

There’s been quite a bit of talk these past couple of years about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy due to an economic recovery finally arriving that I’m going to have to agree with “crash prophet” and Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on this.

The Fed is bluffing.

Unless Fed officials are now starting to worry that growing their balance sheet is not in their best interest anymore.

Schiff, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis, wrote in the March issue of his Gold Letter that was published Friday:

Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: “We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off.” What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed’s unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.

Growing rumors last month of a potential “tightening” of monetary policy – seemingly confirmed by the Fed minutes released on Feb. 20th – have spooked the precious metals markets, leading to a 5.8% correction in gold and 10.2% in silver.

However, these fears are preposterous on two counts…

You can read the entire article (“The Fed’s Tightening Pipe Dream”) on the Euro Pacific Precious Metals website here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Show Annual Gains For Composites, Chicago Metro Area

Data through December 2012, released Tuesday by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, reveals not only did all three headline composites end the year with gains, but the Chicago metro area did as well. From a related press release:

Home Prices Closed Out a Strong 2012 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

New York, February 26, 2013- Data through December 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that all three headline composites ended the year with strong gains. The national composite posted an increase of 7.3% for 2012. The 10- and 20-City Composites reported annual returns of 5.9% and 6.8% in 2012. Month-over-month, both the 10- and 20-City Composites moved into positive territory with gains of 0.2%; more than reversing last month’s losses.

In addition to the three composites, nineteen of the 20 MSAs posted positive year-over-year growth- only New York fell.

The press release went into more detail about the recent performance of Metropolitan Statistical Areas:

In December 2012, nine MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly gains, led by Las Vegas with an increase of 1.8%.

Eleven cities declined with Chicago posting the largest negative monthly return of 0.7%.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

This decline follows another one from October to November, in which the Chicago MSA lost 1.3 percent.

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller data, home prices in the Chicago metropolitan area did gain 2.2 percent from 12 months earlier.

You can read the entire press release/obtain data from the S&P Dow Jones Indices site here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Friday, March 1st, 2013 Housing, Main Street No Comments

Chicago 4th On Latest Forbes ‘America’s Most Miserable Cities’ List

I really hate this time of year in Chicago. Yeah, the cold, wintry days here in the concrete jungle have a lot to do with it. But it’s also that part of the year when Forbes releases their “America’s Most Miserable Cities” list. And the recent trend has seen Chicago moving higher- i.e., more miserable- up that list. Forbes just released their latest installment.

And the trend remains intact.

Chicago climbs to number 4 on the 2013 list of “America’s Most Miserable Cities,” up from 6th last year and 7th in 2011.

From the Forbes website:

Chicago has passionate supporters, but residents must endure the misery of long commutes, plummeting home prices, brutal winters and high foreclosure rates. The migration rate out of Chicago is the sixth worst among the 200 largest metros.

Kurt Badenhausen added in the accompanying article:

Two cities on our list, Chicago (No. 4) and New York (No. 10) may surprise readers, though they’ve been here before. Both offer a myriad of opportunities and positives as the homes of financial centers, world-class culture, leading universities, sports teams galore and high-end restaurants. But it isn’t easy living in either city, particularly if you don’t earn a lot of money (even if you do it can be tough).

Chicago residents must endure long commutes (31 minutes on average), plummeting home prices (37% the past five years), brutal winters and high foreclosure rates (3.3% of homes in 2012 says RealtyTrac). Many residents are giving up on the Windy City with a net migration out of the city of 107,000 people the past five years, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Regrettably, another Illinois city- Rockford- accompanies Chicago in the “top 5,” which includes:

5. Modesto, CA
4. Chicago, IL
3. Rockford, IL

2. Flint, MI
1. Detroit, MI

To make matters worse, the county north of Cook- Lake County- was named to the number 9 spot this year.

Illinois residents couldn’t be more proud, I’m sure.

You can see the entire 2013 list of America’s “Most Miserable Cities” here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Thursday, February 21st, 2013 Housing, Population, Transportation, Weather No Comments

More Chicago-Area Homes Underwater Last Quarter

Back when I was running “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street” I used to talk with increasing regularity about the “underwater people”- Americans who owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. According to online home and real estate marketplace Zillow, their ranks are now thinning out. At least in certain parts of the country. Cory Hopkins reported on the Zillow Blog yesterday:

Almost 2 million American homeowners were freed from negative equity in 2012, and the overall percentage of all homeowners with a mortgage in negative equity fell to 27.5 percent at the end of the fourth quarter, according to Zillow’s fourth quarter Negative Equity Report.

The falling negative equity rate is good news for struggling homeowners and is largely attributable to a 5.9 percent bump in home values nationwide last year to a median Zillow Home Value Index of $157,400 (when home values rise, negative equity falls). At the end of 2011, 31.1 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were underwater, or more than 15.7 million people…

Still, despite more than 1.9 million homeowners nationwide finding their way back above water last year, 13.8 million American homeowners are still struggling with negative equity.

Here in the Chicagoland region, there’s still plenty of “underwater people” around. Francine Knowles reported on the Chicago Sun-Times website early this morning:

Nearly 37 percent of homeowners with mortgages in the Chicago area had negative equity in the fourth quarter of 2012, edging up from the third quarter, according to a new report that forecasts conditions will be worse by the end of the year… That was up from 36.6 percent in the third quarter, but down from 39.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The Seattle, Washington-based company predicts falling home prices for the “Windy City.” Knowles added:

Zillow expects the percent of homes with negative equity will rise to 37.3 by the end of this year.

“Our forecast shows that Chicago’s negative equity rate is expected to rise because home values are expected to decrease by 0.6 percent” in the metropolitan area in December 2013, Zillow senior economist Svenja Gudell said in an email.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

I’ve been reading/hearing about a Chicago-area housing market recovery in the local media outlets with more frequency these days. Sure, sales are up. But prices have been going down. Plus there’s a whole bunch of foreclosures in the pipeline.

A recovery? I’ll believe it when I see it. And let you know when that happens.

UPDATE: This afternoon the Chicago media is running stories about a February 21 Illinois Association of REALTORS press release which might be interpreted as showing the Chicago-area housing market is experiencing a solid recovery. The problem is, January 2013 home sales and median prices are being compared to just one month (“year-over-year”)- January 2012. Instead, consider what the REALTORS wrote on January 22 about the nine-county Chicago Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA) over 12 months (January through December 2012):

Year-end 2012 home sales totaled 90,365, up 26.7 percent from 71,315 homes sold in the region in 2011… The year-end 2012 median price reached $160,000, down -1.5 percent from $162,500 in 2011.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Like I said before: Sales up. Prices down.

Analyze year-end totals for home sales and median prices, and a clearer picture emerges of how healthy the Chicago-area housing market really is.

Or isn’t.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Hopkins, Cory. “2 Million Homeowners Freed From Negative Equity in 2012; 1 Million More to Come in 2013.” Zillow Blog. 20 Feb. 2013. (http://www.zillowblog.com/2013-02-20/2-million-homeowners-freed-from-negative-equity-in-2012-1-million-more-to-come-in-2013/). 21 Feb 2013.

Knowles, Francine. “More Chicago homes underwater in last 3 months of 2012.” Chicago Sun-Times. 21 Feb. 2013. (http://www.suntimes.com/business/18361768-420/more-chicago-homes-underwater-in-last-3-months-of-2012.html). 21 Feb. 2013.

“Home sales, median prices increase in January; housing gains extend into new year.” Illinois Association of REALTORS. 21 Feb. 2013. (http://www.illinoisrealtor.org/node/3203). 21 Feb. 2013.

“Illinois sees home sales increase in December; 2012 notches 22.9 percent sales gain over 2011.” Illinois Association of REALTORS. 22 Jan. 2013. (http://www.illinoisrealtor.org/node/3182). 21 Feb. 2013.

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Thursday, February 21st, 2013 Housing, Main Street, Mainstream Media, Recovery No Comments

Crain’s On Chicago-Area Housing Market

Last night I read a good opinion piece about the Chicago-area housing market on the Crain’s Chicago Business website. Three “experts” shared their outlooks on residential real estate for the year ahead:

• Geoff Smith, Executive Director, Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University in Chicago.
• Jennifer Alter Warden, President, Baird & Warner Residential Sales in Chicago
• Joseph L. Pagliari, Clinical Professor of Real Estate at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business

I wonder if any of these “experts” spotted the recent U.S. housing crash? As an early observer of that event, it’s been my experience that most people didn’t.

So, what made this Crain’s piece so “good?”

Unlike other Chicagoland real estate articles I’ve read recently, this one actually discussed the “large foreclosure pipeline” (Smith) and the “declining financial health of the city, county, and state” (Pagliari) as it relates to the local housing market and home prices.

No mention of the impact of incompetent political leadership, but one could make the case that it’s related to that bit about “declining financial health.”

A worthy read, which is located on the Crain’s website here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, February 20th, 2013 Debt Crisis, Government, Housing No Comments

CoreLogic: Illinois Home Prices Fall 2.7 Percent Year-Over-Year In December

There’s an old saying in the real estate industry:

All real estate is local.

And the latest Home Price Index (HPI) report that was released this morning from Irvine, California-based CoreLogic suggests there might be some truth to that.

From the website of the provider of residential property valuations for the mortgage industry:

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 8.3 percent in December 2012 compared to December 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since May 2006 and the 10th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.4 percent in December 2012 compared to November 2012. The HPI analysis shows that all but four states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.

If you speculated that Illinois might be one of those four states that aren’t experiencing gains- you were correct. From the Reuters website this morning:

Four states posted home price depreciation. They were: Delaware, down -3.4 percent; Illinois down -2.7 percent; New Jersey, down -0.9 percent; and Pennsylvania, down -0.5 percent. Those numbers also include distressed sales.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

No housing recovery yet it seems for the “Land of Lincoln.”

For more information about that December 2012 Home Price Index report, you can go to the CoreLogic website here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

“U.S. home prices post biggest jump in over six years- CoreLogic.” Reuters. 5 Feb. 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/05/usa-housing-corelogic-idUSL1N0B4B2E20130205). 5 Feb. 2013.

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Tuesday, February 5th, 2013 Housing, Main Street No Comments

S&P/Case-Shiller: Chicago-Area Home Prices Fall For Third Straight Month

There’s good and bad news with the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price data for the Chicago-area housing market.

The good news? In November 2012, Chicago-area home prices were up 0.8 percent year-over-year.

And the bad? Prices fell for the third straight month. From ChicagoRealEstateDaily.com (a Crain’s Chicago Business enterprise) this morning:

A closely watched index of Chicago-area home prices fell again in November, its third straight drop and the biggest decline among a 20-city index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of Chicago-area single-family home prices fell 1.3 percent from October to November after dropping 1.6 percent from September to October and 0.6 percent from August to September, according to a report released this morning.

For the second straight month, Chicago posted the biggest decline in a 20-city index where prices fell.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

A week ago, the Illinois Association of Realtors released housing data for all of 2012. Mary Ellen Podmolik reported in Sunday’s Chicago Tribune:

On Tuesday, the Illinois Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the nine-county Chicago area rose almost 27 percent in 2012 from 2011. The inventory of available area homes in December plunged 37 percent from its year-ago comparison, which has led to multiple-offer scenarios and quicker marketing times. Still, the annualized median price slipped 1.5 percent from 2011.

Those pesky home prices…

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

“Chicago-area home prices fall for third straight month.” ChicagoRealEstateDaily.com. 29 Jan. 2013. (http://www.chicagorealestatedaily.com/article/20130129/CRED0701/130129771/chicago-area-home-prices-fall-for-third-straight-month). 29 Jan. 2013.

Podmolik, Mary Ellen. “Realtors’ dose of optimism tinged with reality.” Chicago Tribune. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-25/classified/ct-mre-0127-podmolik-homefront-20130125_1_mabel-guzman-median-price-realtors). 29 Jan. 2013.

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Tuesday, January 29th, 2013 Housing, Main Street No Comments

S&P/Case-Shiller: Chicago-Area Home Prices Decline Again

Data through October 2012 from the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price indices paints a not-too-pretty picture for Chicago-area residential real estate. Sandra Guy wrote on the Chicago Sun-Times website yesterday:

The Chicago-area housing market continued to lag national numbers, posting the largest non-seasonally adjusted single-home price decline — 1.5 percent from September to October and 1.3 percent year-over-year — of 20 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller national home price index released Wednesday.

Of the 20 cities, 12 saw housing prices drop.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Recent rising prices have led to claims the U.S. housing market is in recovery-mode.

However, doubts remain. AnnaMaria Andriotis reported on the MarketWatch website on December 20:

But experts say that spike is largely due to the limited number of homes on the market. There were about two million existing homes available for sale at the end of November, which equates to the lowest housing supply since September 2005, according to the NAR. With fewer homes to choose from, buyers intent on purchasing a property are more inclined to offer a higher price or engage in bidding wars, housing analysts say, which ultimately drives prices up.

The problem is this limited inventory underscores a weakness in the housing market: Many sellers have resisted putting their home up for sale, out of concern that it will sell for far less than they paid for it, says Jack McCabe, an independent housing analyst in Deerfield Beach, Fla. That’s set off a domino effect. Because they’ve held off, supply has remained limited, in turn pushing prices up. “Prices have gone up in the last year because of this temporary, artificial market,” he says…

Separately, in some neighborhoods, median or average sales prices are rising because the mix of homes selling has been shifting toward higher-end, more expensive properties — not necessarily because the value of the typical home is rising, says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia.com, a real-estate listing site. Sales of existing single-family homes priced at $1 million or more increased 52% in November from a year ago, a trend that’s been in play for most of the year, according to the NAR.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

More later on these doubts…

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (http://www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Guy, Sandra. “Chicago-area home prices see steepest drop nationwide: report.” Chicago Sun-Times. 26 Dec. 2012. (http://www.suntimes.com/business/17230482-420/chicago-area-home-prices-see-steepest-drop-nationwide-report.html). 27 Dec. 2012.

Andriotis, AnnaMaria. “The real meaning of rising home prices.” MarketWatch. 20 Dec. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-rising-home-prices-2012-12-20). 27 Dec. 2012.

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Thursday, December 27th, 2012 Housing, Recovery No Comments

Illinois Foreclosures Up 9 Percent Year-Over-Year

“Real estate is going UP!” That’s what one of my family members recently roared at me when I suggested that the Chicago-area housing market was still a mess.

Did I happen to mention this individual also serves as one of my “reverse indicators?”

Anyway, not only are Chicagoland home prices down year-over-year (which I talked about here), but foreclosures too- more so around the state than around the Windy City. From the November 2012 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report from real estate information company and Survival And Prosperity advertising partner RealtyTrac Tuesday:

Florida posted the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate for the third month in a row, with one in every 304 housing units with a foreclosure filing in November, followed by Nevada, Illinois, California and South Carolina…

One in every 392 Illinois housing units had a foreclosure filing in November, the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate. A total of 13,520 Illinois properties had a foreclosure filing during the month, down 9 percent from the previous month to a seven-month low, but still up 9 percent from November 2011 — the 11th straight month where Illinois foreclosure activity has increased on a year-over-year basis.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)


RealtyTrac

As for the Chicago metropolitan area, the Irvine, California-based company said on its website:

Florida and California metro areas accounted for 16 of the top 20 highest metro foreclosure rates. Other cities with foreclosure rates in the top 20 were Rockford, Ill., at No. 11 (one in 290 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Chicago at No. 13 (one in 306 housing units); Las Vegas at No. 16 (one in 336 housing units); and Dayton, Ohio, at No. 18 (one in 338 housing units).

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Chicago Tribune real estate reporter Mart Ellen Podmolik chimed in this morning on the Chicago newspaper’s website:

In the Chicago-area counties of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake and Will, almost 11,000 homes received a foreclosure notice in November, a decrease of 10.5 percent from October’s level of activity but up 1.6 percent from November 2011.

Most of that activity was in Cook County, where about 2,299 homes received initial notices of default, another 2,651 homes were scheduled for court-ordered sales and 2,086 homes were repossessed by lenders.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

I’ll have to see if I can’t find data on the local housing supply. Lots of for sale signs up on front lawns around the area…

You can read the Realty Trac report on their website here.

Source:

Podmolik, Mary Ellen. “Illinois foreclosures rise for 11th month.” Chicago Tribune. 13 Dec. 2012. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-illinois-foreclosures-rise-for-11th-month-20121213,0,6683119.story). 13 Dec. 2012.

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Thursday, December 13th, 2012 Housing No Comments

Federal Reserve Re-Inflating Housing Bubble To Revive Economy?

I just got done reading the following by Reuters’ Jason Lange about household wealth in America:

The net wealth of U.S. households rose in the third quarter to its highest since late 2007, providing a hopeful sign for future consumer spending.

Net financial wealth grew $1.72 trillion to $64.77 trillion, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday.

That left household wealth $1.2 trillion short of where it stood in the fourth quarter of 2007, just as the economy was sinking into a severe recession. Wealth peaked at $67.3 trillion in the third quarter of that year.

Rising home prices helped drive the increase in the latest quarter. The value of real estate owned by households rose about $300 billion, the Fed said. Stock holdings climbed by about $520 billion.

Increases in wealth could make consumers feel more comfortable spending their money. Many economists think consumers spend a few cents of every dollar they gain in wealth.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Seeing this reminded me of something “crash prophet” Peter Schiff said back in September about the Fed trying to re-inflate the housing bubble through QE3 in an attempt to revive the floundering U.S. economy. I wrote on September 18:

In his September 14 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, explained to viewers what QE3 was really about:

This is the plan that Ben Bernanke has. Ben Bernanke’s plan to revive the U.S. economy, and create jobs, is to inflate another housing bubble. That’s it. That’s what the Fed’s got. That’s what it came up with. As if the last housing bubble worked out so well for the economy, that the Fed wants an encore…

How is another housing bubble going to solve anything. Now one thing that Ben Bernanke hasn’t figured out yet- it ain’t gonna work. No matter how much he tries, no matter how much air he blows in to that housing market, he’s not going to reflate that bubble. There are simply too many holes in it, and there is no precedent for relating a busted bubble. More likely, all that cheap money is going to go someplace else…

The housing Pollyannas are definitely back, as you’ll read about in a Friday post.

But is housing back?

Stay tuned…

Source:

Lange, Jason. “U.S. household wealth rises to near 2007 high.” Reuters. 6 Dec. 2012. (http://news.yahoo.com/household-wealth-increases-64-77-trillion-172821521–sector.html). 6 Dec. 2012.

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Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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