housing recovery
More Chicago-Area Homes Underwater Last Quarter
Back when I was running “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street” I used to talk with increasing regularity about the “underwater people”- Americans who owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. According to online home and real estate marketplace Zillow, their ranks are now thinning out. At least in certain parts of the country. Cory Hopkins reported on the Zillow Blog yesterday:
Almost 2 million American homeowners were freed from negative equity in 2012, and the overall percentage of all homeowners with a mortgage in negative equity fell to 27.5 percent at the end of the fourth quarter, according to Zillow’s fourth quarter Negative Equity Report.
The falling negative equity rate is good news for struggling homeowners and is largely attributable to a 5.9 percent bump in home values nationwide last year to a median Zillow Home Value Index of $157,400 (when home values rise, negative equity falls). At the end of 2011, 31.1 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were underwater, or more than 15.7 million people…
Still, despite more than 1.9 million homeowners nationwide finding their way back above water last year, 13.8 million American homeowners are still struggling with negative equity.
Here in the Chicagoland region, there’s still plenty of “underwater people” around. Francine Knowles reported on the Chicago Sun-Times website early this morning:
Nearly 37 percent of homeowners with mortgages in the Chicago area had negative equity in the fourth quarter of 2012, edging up from the third quarter, according to a new report that forecasts conditions will be worse by the end of the year… That was up from 36.6 percent in the third quarter, but down from 39.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.
The Seattle, Washington-based company predicts falling home prices for the “Windy City.” Knowles added:
Zillow expects the percent of homes with negative equity will rise to 37.3 by the end of this year.
“Our forecast shows that Chicago’s negative equity rate is expected to rise because home values are expected to decrease by 0.6 percent” in the metropolitan area in December 2013, Zillow senior economist Svenja Gudell said in an email.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
I’ve been reading/hearing about a Chicago-area housing market recovery in the local media outlets with more frequency these days. Sure, sales are up. But prices have been going down. Plus there’s a whole bunch of foreclosures in the pipeline.
A recovery? I’ll believe it when I see it. And let you know when that happens.
UPDATE: This afternoon the Chicago media is running stories about a February 21 Illinois Association of REALTORS press release which might be interpreted as showing the Chicago-area housing market is experiencing a solid recovery. The problem is, January 2013 home sales and median prices are being compared to just one month (“year-over-year”)- January 2012. Instead, consider what the REALTORS wrote on January 22 about the nine-county Chicago Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA) over 12 months (January through December 2012):
Year-end 2012 home sales totaled 90,365, up 26.7 percent from 71,315 homes sold in the region in 2011… The year-end 2012 median price reached $160,000, down -1.5 percent from $162,500 in 2011.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Like I said before: Sales up. Prices down.
Analyze year-end totals for home sales and median prices, and a clearer picture emerges of how healthy the Chicago-area housing market really is.
Or isn’t.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Hopkins, Cory. “2 Million Homeowners Freed From Negative Equity in 2012; 1 Million More to Come in 2013.” Zillow Blog. 20 Feb. 2013. (http://www.zillowblog.com/2013-02-20/2-million-homeowners-freed-from-negative-equity-in-2012-1-million-more-to-come-in-2013/). 21 Feb 2013.
Knowles, Francine. “More Chicago homes underwater in last 3 months of 2012.” Chicago Sun-Times. 21 Feb. 2013. (http://www.suntimes.com/business/18361768-420/more-chicago-homes-underwater-in-last-3-months-of-2012.html). 21 Feb. 2013.
“Home sales, median prices increase in January; housing gains extend into new year.” Illinois Association of REALTORS. 21 Feb. 2013. (http://www.illinoisrealtor.org/node/3203). 21 Feb. 2013.
“Illinois sees home sales increase in December; 2012 notches 22.9 percent sales gain over 2011.” Illinois Association of REALTORS. 22 Jan. 2013. (http://www.illinoisrealtor.org/node/3182). 21 Feb. 2013.
S&P/Case-Shiller: Chicago-Area Home Prices Decline Again
Data through October 2012 from the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price indices paints a not-too-pretty picture for Chicago-area residential real estate. Sandra Guy wrote on the Chicago Sun-Times website yesterday:
The Chicago-area housing market continued to lag national numbers, posting the largest non-seasonally adjusted single-home price decline — 1.5 percent from September to October and 1.3 percent year-over-year — of 20 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller national home price index released Wednesday.
Of the 20 cities, 12 saw housing prices drop.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Recent rising prices have led to claims the U.S. housing market is in recovery-mode.
However, doubts remain. AnnaMaria Andriotis reported on the MarketWatch website on December 20:
But experts say that spike is largely due to the limited number of homes on the market. There were about two million existing homes available for sale at the end of November, which equates to the lowest housing supply since September 2005, according to the NAR. With fewer homes to choose from, buyers intent on purchasing a property are more inclined to offer a higher price or engage in bidding wars, housing analysts say, which ultimately drives prices up.
The problem is this limited inventory underscores a weakness in the housing market: Many sellers have resisted putting their home up for sale, out of concern that it will sell for far less than they paid for it, says Jack McCabe, an independent housing analyst in Deerfield Beach, Fla. That’s set off a domino effect. Because they’ve held off, supply has remained limited, in turn pushing prices up. “Prices have gone up in the last year because of this temporary, artificial market,” he says…
Separately, in some neighborhoods, median or average sales prices are rising because the mix of homes selling has been shifting toward higher-end, more expensive properties — not necessarily because the value of the typical home is rising, says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia.com, a real-estate listing site. Sales of existing single-family homes priced at $1 million or more increased 52% in November from a year ago, a trend that’s been in play for most of the year, according to the NAR.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
More later on these doubts…
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (http://www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Guy, Sandra. “Chicago-area home prices see steepest drop nationwide: report.” Chicago Sun-Times. 26 Dec. 2012. (http://www.suntimes.com/business/17230482-420/chicago-area-home-prices-see-steepest-drop-nationwide-report.html). 27 Dec. 2012.
Andriotis, AnnaMaria. “The real meaning of rising home prices.” MarketWatch. 20 Dec. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-rising-home-prices-2012-12-20). 27 Dec. 2012.
‘Irrational Exuberance’ Back In Housing
There are two real estate reporters I like to follow on a regular basis. CNBC’s Diana Olick and the Chicago Tribune’s Mary Umberger. Why do I like them so much? Because they don’t hold back on reporting the real conditions of the U.S. and Chicago housing markets. I remember them pretty much telling it as it was as the United States went through that housing bubble and subsequent crash- while many of their colleagues assumed the role of self-appointed real estate cheerleaders even as home sales and prices plummeted.
And these days, I’m detecting ‘irrational exuberance’ again in residential real estate. It’s not just me either. Umberger wrote in last weekend’s Sunday edition of the Chicago Tribune:
If the Chicago real estate market were a patient recovering from a lingering, debilitating illness, the doctor might be obliged to set the patient’s over-expectant family straight: Yes, your loved one’s symptoms have eased up, says the MD, but, gee, it’s a little too soon to be training for a marathon.
Those are the kinds of expectations that many Chicago-area homeowners seem to harbor these days, according to Naperville appraiser Alvin “Chip” Wagner, whose recent newsletter to members of the local real estate community sought to address a form of irrational exuberance he’s seeing lately: Yes, the market is better, but that doesn’t necessarily mean your home is gaining in value — in fact, some prices might fall further.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Umberger interviewed Wagner, who had this to say about Chicagoland homeowners being overly-optimistic. From the piece:
Well, absolutely, the market is improving, but not in the area of pricing, which is what homeowners want to know about. In the third quarter, the average sales price throughout the area was $244,203. One year ago, the average was $258,364. That’s about a 5.5 percent decline.
Yet, I go to people’s houses to do appraisals, and (the homeowners’ expectations are) driven by what they see in the media, and they say to me, the market has picked up, and they expect their house is growing in value. They expect to see a 3 to 5 percent growth. I end up having to tell them, your values aren’t appreciating, they may be flat or even declining.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
I don’t like hearing about the housing market being crummy as much as the next person. But what I do like are people being straight with me. Especially journalists.
“And (the homeowners’ expectations are) driven by what they see in the media.”
See what I mean about those cheerleaders? This is why I like straight-shooting reporters like Olick and Umberger. Wish more of their contemporaries could be like them, instead of barfing up a whole lot of nonsense all over my computer screen.
Source:
Umberger, Mary. “A reality check on housing market.” Chicago Tribune. 30 Nov. 2012. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-11-30/classified/ct-mre-1202-umberger-housing-20121130_1_number-of-active-listings-naperville-appraiser-sales-price). 7 Dec. 2012.
CoreLogic: Home Prices Up Year-Over-Year, But Not Around Chicago
There’s been a lot of talk lately about a supposed recovery in the U.S. housing market.
Fueling such chatter is a report released earlier this morning from Irvine, California-based real estate analytics and services provider CoreLogic concerning home prices. From their website:
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its October CoreLogic HPI report. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since June 2006 and the eighth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices decreased by 0.2 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012…
I noticed the following in the “Highlights” section of this latest report:
Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest home price depreciation were: Illinois (-2.7 percent), Delaware (-2.7 percent), Rhode Island (-0.6 percent), New Jersey (-0.6 percent) and Alabama (-0.3 percent).
Once again, Illinois is number one on a list you don’t want to be at the top of.
Reuters (with Chicago Tribune real estate reporter Mary Ellen Podmolik contributing) published the following on the Tribune website this morning as it concerns CoreLogic findings for the Chicagoland area:
In the Chicago area, October home prices fell 2.3 percent compared with a year ago and were down 1.1 percent since September.
Down 2.3 percent year-over-year? No recovery here.
Interestingly, I noticed the following uttered twice in the piece:
Excluding distressed sales…
Followed by prices rose or were up.
You don’t say?
Is it just me, or does excluding distressed sales skew home price calculations to the upside, making the housing market look better than it really is?
You can read the entire CoreLogic report on their website here.
Source:
“CoreLogic: U.S. home prices show biggest annual gain since June 2006.” Reuters. 4 Dec. 2012. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-corelogic-us-home-prices-show-biggest-annual-gain-since-june-2006-20121204,0,5529349.story). 4 Dec. 2012.
Robert Shiller: ‘I’m Not Ready Yet’ To Call U.S. Housing Bottom
The housing bulls are out in full-force these days after repeated smack-downs since the air was let out of the U.S. housing bubble (“housing’s coming back in 2007, no 2008, maybe 2009, make that 2010, 2011 anyone?”)
But one housing expert, who was out there in the mid-2000s warning anyone who would listen about the housing bubble and subsequent crash, isn’t sure residential real estate in the United States has bottomed-out just yet.
Yale University economist Robert Shiller talked to CNBC’s Scott Wapner on the TV show Fast Money earlier today. From their exchange on the “Halftime Report”:
WAPNER: You don’t think that housing is on the road to recovery?
SHILLER: I think it might be. There are a lot of positive indicators. But I think people tend to overreact to these. And if you look at the trend- which has been down since 2006- it’s a pretty strong trend that we have to see reversed. You know, maybe, you know, I might call it later this year that we’ve reached the bottom. But I’m not ready yet.
Dr. Shiller noted that there have been four attempts at a housing recovery since the subprime crisis.
“Shiller: ‘Not Ready Yet’ to Call Housing Bottom”
CNBC Video
U.S. Home Prices, Housing Market Finally Recovering?
When conducting research, I like to keep an open mind about the news sources I use. For example, I read both the FOX News and MSNBC websites daily during the business week- among others. Not taking this diverse approach might prevent me from getting the whole story. Take the following from MSNBC.com this morning:
“Home prices up for first time in 10 months”
Single-family home prices rose for the first time in 10 months, in an encouraging sign the battered sector is starting to stabilize, a closely watched survey said on Tuesday.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching economists’ forecasts.
It was the first time prices have gained since April 2011…
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Now, look at what appeared on the finance/investing website MarketWatch.com this morning:
“U.S. home prices fall to nearly decade low”
February prices down 0.8% on the month
U.S. home prices dropped sharply in February to hit the worst level in nearly a decade, according to a closely followed index released Tuesday.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite fell 0.8% compared to January levels to take the year-on-year drop to 3.5%. The index is at its lowest level since October 2002. Of the 20 cities measured, 16 had negative readings and only three showed gains.
The decline may be due to the typical pattern of diminished interest during the winter and heightened interest in housing during the spring and summer, as prices rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the first rise since April 2011. S&P says the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator…
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
“S&P says the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator”
So while the index creators point out that “the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator,” MSNBC utilized the latest data from the adjusted (less reliable) series for a positive piece about the U.S. housing market, writing stuff like:
“Home prices up for first time in 10 months”
And:
“an encouraging sign the battered sector is starting to stabilize”
To be fair, MSNBC included the following later on in the article:
But on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the 20-city index was down 0.8 percent at 134.20, the lowest since October 2002.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Still, the gist of the piece seems to be that U.S. home prices and the housing market are recovering- something that a number of long-time, reputable housing observers can’t say is true.
So, is MSNBC now a housing shill? Are they trying to put a positive spin on housing as part of a larger effort to get President Obama re-elected, as some would have you believe? I don’t know. But I am certain of this. Theirs isn’t the whole story as it concerns the direction of U.S. home prices and the overall housing market.
Sources:
“Home prices up for first time in 10 months.” MSNBC. 24 Apr. 2012. (http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/24/11369617-home-prices-up-for-first-time-in-10-months?lite). 24 Apr. 2012.
Goldstein, Steve. “U.S. home prices fall to nearly decade low.” MarketWatch. 24 Apr. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-prices-fall-to-nearly-decade-low-2012-04-24). 24 Apr. 2012.
2013 Housing Recovery Could Be Dashed By Next Foreclosure Wave
Unbridled optimism about the nation’s economic health seems to be in the air these days- at least for the mainstream media and financial types. There’s no shortage of talk about a strengthening economic recovery, higher stock/401k values, peaking gas prices, and a housing market bottom and recovery.
Hey, all of that sounds good to me.
Problem is, as it concerns housing, many of those claiming home prices are close to bottoming out and recovering are the same ones who didn’t see the recent housing bubble and subsequent crash in the first place.
And, is it just me, or is that spiel about a comeback in residential real estate being played over and over like a broken record? Housing will recover in 2008. Wait, 2009. No, make that 2010. 2011. 2012. And now, Lucia Mukitani writes on the MSNBC website this morning:
The relentless decline in home prices is nearing an end and prices should rise for the first time in seven years in 2013, but a possible new wave of foreclosures could threaten the recovery, according a Reuters poll of economists.
The median forecast of 24 economists polled by Reuters was for the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to end the year unchanged. That was the same finding back in January for this house price gauge, which covers 20 cities.
“We are expecting a gradual improvement, but if we get a big wave of new foreclosures coming to the market, price declines could be even greater,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
The survey forecast the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rising 2.0 percent next year, up from 1.5 percent in the January survey.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Did you notice the concern about foreclosures? It’s later muted in the piece. Mukitani added:
The survey predicted about 1.5 million foreclosed properties will come on to the market this year. While there is no comparison for this figure, most analysts believe the foreclosure wave has either peaked or is close to topping out.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
That may be so, but it sounds like there’s enough foreclosures in the pipeline- with still more coming- to possibly lower home prices even more. From the CNBC website this morning:
More U.S. homes are entering the foreclosure process, setting the stage for a surge in properties repossessed by lenders this year.
The number of homes that received first-time foreclosure notices rose 7 percent in March from the previous month, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac said Thursday.
That marks the third consecutive monthly increase this year and reflects stepped-up efforts by banks to take action against homeowners who fail to keep up with mortgage payments.
“We’re not out of the woods yet with foreclosures,” said Daren Blomquist, a vice president at RealtyTrac. “There are more batches of foreclosures coming through the pipeline.”
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Now, foreclosure activity slowed in the first quarter. But not for reasons one might suspect. From MSNBC.com senior producer John Schoen earlier today:
Foreclosure activity fell in the first quarter to the lowest level in more than four years, but mainly because the process of removing people from their homes has slowed. The number of homes just beginning the foreclosure process rose in March for a third straight month, a sign that the nation’s housing problems are far from over, according to RealtyTrac, which tracks the figures.
“The low foreclosure numbers in the first quarter are not an indication that the massive reservoir of distressed properties built up over the past few years has somehow miraculously evaporated,” said Brandon Moore, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.
He said a large backlog of bank-owned properties that has accumulated over the past few years will put added pressure on the housing market when banks eventually list them for sale.
“The dam may not burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst, and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to happen,” he said in a news release.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
“Added pressure,” “Dam… will eventually burst.” Sounds like home prices could keep falling. Nick Carey wrote on the Reuters website back on April 4:
Real estate company Zillow Inc says more than one in four American homeowners were “under water” or owed more than their homes were worth in the fourth quarter of 2011. The crisis has wiped out some $7 trillion in U.S. household wealth…
Zillow expects the resurgence in foreclosures this year, combined with excess inventory of unsold, bank-owned homes will contribute to a 3.7 percent national decline in prices before the market hits bottom in 2013 and stays there until 2016.
“The hangover from this crisis will far outlast the party of the boom years,” said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
So 2013 might not be the year of housing’s recovery?
2014, anyone?
Sources:
Mukitani, Lucia. “Close to bottoming, home prices may rise in 2013.” MSNBC. 12 Apr. 2012. (http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/12/11161950-close-to-bottoming-home-prices-may-rise-in-2013?lite). 12 Apr. 2012.
“First-Time Foreclosure Notices Hit 6-Month High.” CNBC. 12 Apr. 2012. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47028071). 12 Apr. 2012.
Schoen, John W. “Foreclosures slow as pipeline keeps backing up.” CNBC. 12 Apr. 2012. (http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/12/11145443-foreclosures-slow-as-pipeline-keeps-backing-up?lite). 12 Apr. 2012.
Carey, Nick. “Americans brace for next foreclosure wave.” Reuters. 4 Apr. 2012. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/04/us-foreclosure-idUSBRE83319E20120404). 12 Apr. 2012.
Seen On The Streets, Part 1
Real Estate “For Sale” Signs Going Up. Lots Of Them.
There’s more talk recently of a housing recovery being “right around the corner” due to shrinking inventory. A number of media outlets have discussed the decreasing number of existing homes on the market lately. For example, Nick Timiraos wrote in the Wall Street Journal’s Developments blog back on January 19:
“Housing Inventory Ends Year Down 22%”
There were fewer homes listed for sale at the end of 2011 than in any of the previous four years, a positive sign for the housing sector…
The 1.89 million homes on the market at the end of December represented a 6% decline from November and a 22.3% decline from one year ago, according to data compiled by Realtor.com.
I can’t speak for the rest of the country, but based on what I’ve seen around the Chicagoland area the past several days, inventory levels might be rising shortly. Driving back and forth between Chicago and the western suburbs I’ve noticed an awful lot of “for sale” signs going up in front lawns- more so than what you’d typically expect for the spring selling season. Stately homes, shacks, condos, you name it, and quite a few signs are out. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I’ve seen only two “for rent” signs, both in my neighborhood, which has a lot of multi-family buildings. While Craigslist usually returns a good number of properties for rent around where I live, a quick search revealed only seven available going back to the oldest entry on February 24. Plenty of condominium units up and down my street for sale though. Hmm. I wonder if unwilling landlords aren’t thinking this is the year for finally unloading that ill-timed attempt at a “flip?”
Those who point to improving inventory data as evidence a housing recovery is near might be underestimating what I may be witnessing, which is, quite a few sellers who pulled their properties off the market some time ago to wait for better conditions could be charging back in, emboldened by each bit of good housing news they’ve heard lately. However, more properties placed on the market leads to increased supply, which could keep depressing home prices.
Source:
Timiraos, Nick. “Housing Inventory Ends Year Down 22%.” Wall Street Journal. 19 Jan. 2012. (http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/01/19/housing-inventory-ends-year-down-22/). 2 Mar. 2012.
Chicago-Area Home Prices Fall To May 2001 Levels, Condos To August 2000 Levels
Summer 2005. At a party in a Chicago suburb, I found myself unable to escape a conversation about how fabulous the housing market was doing. Although I had already recognized by then it was only a matter of time before the bubble burst, I held back and politely listened to what the partygoers were saying. In a nutshell, they convinced each other they were real estate investing geniuses, on par with Donald Trump or dare I say Tom Barrack.
Fast forward to January 31, 2012. From Mary Ellen Podmolik this morning on the Chicago Tribune website:
Home prices in the Chicago area fell in November for the third consecutive month, putting them back at May 2001 levels, according to a widely watched index released Tuesday.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index found that in November, housing prices in the Chicago area fell 3.4 percent from October and were down 5.9 percent from a year ago. Other than Atlanta, Seattle and Las Vegas, Chicago had the greatest year-over year price decline.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
May 2001 levels. Ouch.
It gets worse. Podmolik added:
Chicago-area condominium prices were down 3.8 percent in November from a month earlier and declined 9.7 percent from November 2010. That put Chicago-area condo prices at their levels in August 2000.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
August 2000 levels. Holy Cow.
And MSNBC.com news services reported this morning:
U.S. single-family home prices fell more than expected in November, highlighting a sector that continues to struggle to make a meaningful recovery, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.
The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger drop than the 0.5 percent economists had expected.
The decrease added on to the 0.7 percent decline seen in October.
Despite all this, I’m guessing mainstream media website headlines asking “Has Housing Bottomed?” or “Is The Housing Recovery Finally Here?” won’t be going away anytime soon.
Last week, the co-creator of the composite index, Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, spoke to Henry Blodget at BusinessInsider.com about talk of a U.S. housing market bottom/recovery. From their exchange:
BLODGET: A lot of people have just called the bottom in the housing market in the United States, and there’s been some okay data recently. Is that your take? That finally housing prices are bottoming?
SHILLER: When people phrase is that way, they say ‘we’ve reached the bottom.’ That suggests that we have the expectation of a major turning point right now. But I don’t see that. I don’t see any reason to think that prices are going to start heading up dramatically now. We do have some good news. Permits are up. Notably, the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index is up and that’s a forward-looking index. But it’s not up very much. If you look at the rate of change it looks dramatic but it’s still at a low level.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
You may recall that Dr. Shiller was one of the few people around to warn anyone who’d listen of the U.S. housing bubble, and was subsequently savaged for it by the housing shills and a number of “investing geniuses.”
Sources:
Podmolik, Mary Ellen. “Chicago home prices slide again in November, to 2001 levels.” ChicagoTribune.com. 31 Jan. 2012. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-caseshiller-20120131,0,5689134.story). 31 Jan. 2012.
“Home prices fall more than expected.” MSNBC.com. 31 Jan. 2012. (http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/31/10278907-home-prices-fall-more-than-expected). 31 Jan. 2012.
Blodget, Henry. “Housing Bottom? What Are They Thinking?” BusinessInsider.com. 29 Jan. 2012. (http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-29/news/30675216_1_housing-bubble-house-prices-robert-shiller#yui-main). 31 Jan. 2012.
Housing Is Back!
Every few days, I see it snuck in somewhere on various mainstream media websites:
Housing is back
Doubtful. A number of housing experts point out that for residential real estate to achieve a sustained recovery in this country, substantial progress has to be made in reducing the glut of properties languishing on the market. The National Association of Realtors reported on August 18:
Total housing inventory at the end of July fell 1.7 percent to 3.65 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 9.2-month supply in June.
And don’t forget about the “shadow inventory,” or looming foreclosures that are expected to hit the market. Reuters’ Leah Schnurr wrote yesterday:
“There are probably about 3.5 million loans that should be in foreclosure but aren’t yet, and we’re going to have to work through that inventory before the housing market can come back,” said [RealtyTrac senior vice president Rick] Sharga. “This is a painful but necessary first step to get the housing market back on a more even keel.”
After foreclosure activity slowed down for a period of time, the banks appear to be back in the saddle again. The Chicago Tribune’s Mary Ellen Podmolik wrote yesterday:
Notices of mortgage default, the first step in the home foreclosure process, jumped 25 percent in Illinois last month, putting the threat of additional strain on local housing markets.
In August, 7,264 Illinois households received default notices in August, compared to 5,786 households that had foreclosure proceedings started against them by lenders in July, RealtyTrac reported Thursday. It was the most default notices filed against Illinois homeowners since March.
Illinois’ heightened activity mirrors a national trend. Across the country, 78,880 U.S. properties received a default notice in August, a nine-month high and a 33 percent increase from July…
States where default notices rose more than 40 percent from July included New Jersey, Indiana and California.
Based on inventory alone, it sounds like a sustained housing recovery in the United States is still a ways off.
Sources:
“Existing-Home Sales Down in July but Up Strongly From a Year Ago.” National Association of Realtors. 18 Aug. 2011. (http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/08/july_ehs). 16 Sep. 2011.
Schnurr, Leah. “Mortgage default notices jump in August: RealtyTrac.” Reuters. 15 Sep. 2011. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/15/us-usa-economy-realtytrac-idUSTRE78E0OM20110915). 16 Sep. 2011.
Podmolik, Mary Ellen. “Mortgage default notices in Illinois surge 25% in August.” Chicago Tribune. 15 Sep. 2011. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/foreclosure/chi-mortgage-default-warnings-surged-in-august-20110915,0,421789.story). 16 Sep. 2011.
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- Financial Sense Newshour’s Jim Puplava: When Gold Price Manipulation Occurs, Buy Gold
- Number Of Poor In Chicago Suburbs Increased 99% Over Last Decade
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- Peter Schiff On Recovery Talk: ‘Would Have Thought People Might Have Learned Something By Now’
- Jim Rogers On What’s Happening With Commodities, Gold
- Civic Federation: Funding Continues To Decline For Chicago-Area Public Employee Pension Funds
- Standard-Capacity Ammunition Magazine Ban Passes Out Of Illinois Senate Executive Committee
- Oklahoma Tragedy
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