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Jim Rogers: ‘We’re Certainly Going To Have Worse Times Than We’ve Had In Our Lifetime’

Let’s talk finance and investing for the remainder of the day. Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers recently made an appearance on GoldSeek.com Radio, and in the April 1, 2016, broadcast, the former investing partner of George Soros talked about several topics including a coming U.S. financial crash, where he’s putting his money these days, and the prospect of another buying opportunity with gold. On a coming crash, from the exchange with host Chris Waltzek:

WALTZEK: You know you’ve mentioned that this could be the “last rally.” I put that in quotes and we’re seeing again signs of that. But these price-to-earnings ratios, the CAPE ratios, some of our individual stocks 300, 500-priced-to- earnings. I mean, they’re priced to perfection for eternity. Could this lead to maybe a 1929-style scenario, or are we in worse or more dangerous water?
ROGERS: Chris, we’re certainly going to have worse times than we’ve had in our lifetimes. How bad it is? I expect it to be, well to repeat, worse than anything we’ve had in our lifetime, because the debt is like nothing it’s ever been in recorded history. America is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Higher and higher. But so does everybody else’s debt. So the next time around- yes, it’s going to be very, very disastrous. The only hope Chris is that somehow the world survives the next time around. Well we won’t survive the one after that, I assure you, because the debt will be so much higher, money printing will be so much worse. We’re going to live in very interesting times, which as you know, a Chinese curse to live in interesting times.

Regarding where the Singapore-based investor is putting his money:

WALTZEK: So give us an idea then where those funds of yours are headed and where you feel safe right now.
ROGERS: I own a lot of U.S. dollars, not because it’s going to be a horrible currency in the end, but with the bad times coming many people will put their money in what they consider safe assets or safe havens, and many people think the U.S. dollar is a safe haven. Compared to the rest of the world- yeah, it is a safe haven compared to the yen or the euro or other currencies. So I own U.S. dollars. I own Chinese renminbi. I own Chinese shares. I’m short in the U.S. I’m long agriculture. I bought recently some Russian government short-term bonds in rubles. I own some gold and silver which I have for years- I haven’t bought any recently. Some stocks that I’ve owned for twenty or thirty years- I don’t see any reason to sell them since I bought them so long ago. That’s basically, off the top of my head, where my investments are.

On the prospect of another buying opportunity in gold, Rogers said:

I’m not rushing in to buy. I still expect a better opportunity to buy gold sometime in the next two or three years. If that happens, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more. If it doesn’t happen, I own some gold, so I’ll make money. But I’m still waiting for my… another opportunity.

The CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. shared with listeners:

There are other places I’m looking at but I’m really not very active at all. I’m mainly just watching the world unfold. Be knowledgeable, be worried, and be prepared.

“Be knowledgeable, be worried, and be prepared.” Wise words to digest.


“GSR interviews JIM ROGERS – March 31, 2016 Nugget”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Marc Faber Doubts Fed Rate Hike In 2015, Buys Crude Oil Stocks

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was recently interviewed by Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy at CNBC-TV18 (India). The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked about a number of financial/investing topics- including a potential rate hike soon by the Federal Reserve. From a transcript of the discussion published on the Moneycontrol.com website on April 13:

Sonia: So, you are not expecting a rate hike from the US Fed this year?

A: What I said is in my view the Fed will not increase rates this year unless there is really a very sharp pick up in the economy or there is a colossal pot-hole developing in stocks. But otherwise I doubt it because the dollar has been strong. Okay, it may weaken somewhat, but I do not think it will collapse against the euro and against the yen and the British pound and so forth. So, the dollar is relatively strong. The economy in the US, the latest say, ten indicators that came out were all on the weak side. And under these conditions I doubt the Fed will increase rates. But that is an academic debate. What is important is I think the Feds and other Western Central Bankers will keep interest rates at a very low level for a very long time and will try to keep interest rates in real terms negative. In other words below the rates of cost of living increases.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Dr. Faber shares the belief of fellow “crash prophet” Peter Schiff concerning an increase in the federal funds rate in the near future. However, Schiff has added that if the U.S. central bank does raise interest rates anytime soon, it will be miniscule.

Faber, who correctly forecast the rise of commodities, emerging markets, and China last decade, shares something else with a different “prophet.” From the transcript:

Latha: Yes, I note your exasperation. Therefore let me come to another asset class: commodities. Do you think they have bottomed or is it that there would be a long trough for this asset class?

A: We have to distinguish because the price of oil has very little to do with the price of orange juice or coffee. So each commodity has its own price dynamics driven by global production and global demand. Now industrial commodities have performed miserably along with emerging markets over the last couple of years because the demand was slowing down especially from China. So, you have prices of iron ore and steel and copper and oil that have collapsed. I happen to think that at this level a lot of commodities are reasonably priced, does not mean they will go up right away. But they come now into a buying rate and I have been buying some oil stocks recently.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Last Sunday, I noted Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, who spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier, had purchased a crude oil ETF.

You can read the transcript of the entire exchange between Dr. Faber and CNBC-TV18 on Moneycontrol.com here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Lord Rothschild Warns ‘Geopolitical Situation Perhaps As Dangerous As Any We Have Faced Since World War II’

Jacob Rothschild, or 4th Baron Rothschild Bt, OM, GBE, FBA, as he’s known across “the pond,” has issued a warning to investors in RIT Capital Partners, an investment trust chaired by the 78-year-old banker. Lord Rothschild wrote in the £2.3 billion trust’s 2014 annual report (Report & Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2014) under “Chairman’s Statement”:

Our policy has been clearly expressed over the years. Simply put, it is to deliver long-term capital growth while preserving shareholders’ capital; the realization of this policy comes at a time of heightened risk, complexity and uncertainty. The economic and geopolitical environment therefore becomes increasingly difficult to predict.

The world economy grew at a disappointing and uneven rate in 2014 after six years of monetary stimulus and extraordinarily low interest rates. Stock market valuations however, are near an all-time high with equities benefiting from quantitative easing. Not surprisingly, the value of paper money has been debased as countries have sought to compete and generate growth by lowering the value of their currencies – the Euro and the Yen depreciated by over 12% against the US Dollar during the course of the year and Sterling by 5.9%. The unintended consequences of monetary experiments on such a scale are impossible to predict.

In addition to this difficult economic background, we are confronted by a geopolitical situation perhaps as dangerous as any we have faced since World War II: chaos and extremism in the Middle East, Russian aggression and expansion, and a weakened Europe threatened by horrendous unemployment, in no small measure caused by a failure to tackle structural reforms in many of the countries which form part of the European Union.

However, in a world of zero or even negative bond yields, equities may well remain the destination of choice for investors. Furthermore, the majority of companies are reporting profits exceeding forecasts together with steady earnings growth. In Europe, the combination of a more competitive Euro, an aggressive programme of quantitative easing and the yields available on equities, may well lead to even higher valuations…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In 2012, it was reported the elder member of the Rothschild banking family took a $200 million position against the euro.

You can read the entire report on RIT Capital Partners website here (.pdf format).

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Nouriel Roubini: ‘Mother Of All Asset Bubbles’ To Pop In 2016

One of the original “crash prophets” of the 2008 global economic crisis is now sounding the alarm over what he sees in 2016.

I first mentioned Nouriel Roubini, a former Treasury official under the Clinton administration, a professor of economics at NYU, and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, in my old blog Boom2Bust.com several years ago. Roubini correctly-predicted the financial crisis, but “Dr. Doom”- as the financial media likes to call him- had become more optimistic this year. On May 14, 2014, he “debated” fellow “prophet” Peter Schiff on CNBC’s Fast Money, saying:

We’re printing a lot of money but it’s not creating credit. It’s not creating inflation. And if we had not done this policy, this Great Recession would have become a Great Depression. So, inflation is going to stay low. Gold prices are going to fall. And I don’t believe that the dollar’s going to collapse. Actually, I believe the dollar’s going to become stronger in the next few years- just the opposite of what Peter thinks.

But these days, Dr. Roubini is starting to sound gloomy again. Last week, I happened to come across a Yahoo! Finance interview with Roubini from earlier this month. From an exchange with editor-in-chief Aaron Task:

TASK: Nouriel Roubini is often referred to as “Dr. Doom”- affectionately of course- but the NYU professor and chairman of Roubini Global Economics is not always downbeat. He prefers “Dr. Realist,” and in February 2013 Roubini told Yahoo! Finance and this reporter that, “The mother of all asset bubbles had begun, and would eventually be bigger than the 2003-2006 bubble.” Since that time the S&P 500 is up about 40 percent, so Nouriel, that was a great call if you were long, and bubbles are great if you’re long and you get out in time. Where do you see- what inning, if we use the baseball analogy, are we in in this bubble from your point of view?
ROUBINI: We’re in middle-later innings. Next year we’ll have economic growth. We’re still easy money. I think that this frothiness that we’ve seen in these financial markets is likely to continue- from equities to credit to housing. And in a couple of years, most likely, this asset inflation is going to become asset frothiness. And eventually, an asset and a credit bubble. And eventually, any booming bubble ends up a bust and a crash. I don’t expect that happening next year, but I would say that valuations in many markets- whether its government bonds or credit or real estate or some equity markets- are already stretched. They’re going to become more stretched as the real economy justifies a slow exit, and all this liquidity is going into more asset inflation. And so, two years down the line for them to shake out, but not before then.
TASK: A couple of years down the line, okay.
ROUBINI: Yeah. 2016 I would say.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Roubini: U.S. equities will be strong until 2016”
Yahoo! Finance Video

Dr. Roubini gave this advice to investors:

At this point, I would be neutral or underweight U.S. equities compared to other markets.

As for “best bets” in 2015, he told viewers:

Several I would say. I would say, dollar strength relative to the euro, relative to the yen, relative to the commodity currencies, relative to fragile emerging markets. And a bet on commodities further another leg down, certainly industrial metals like copper and others linked to China. Those will be two of the stories for 2015.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: Gold Will ‘Take A Rocket Ship Back Up’ And Eclipse $5,000

Kitco News anchor Daniela Cambone got the chance to speak to Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff on November 18. The “crash prophet” who correctly-predicted the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis was at the Grand Cayman Liberty Forum, and here’s what the long-time gold bull had to say about the precious metal. From their exchange:

CAMBONE: So let’s tie this back into gold now. What’s your outlook for the metal? I know you’ve been bullish on the metal. Do you continue to be?
SCHIFF: Yes. I’m bullish. You know, it’s hard to call the short term obviously and people now are trying to say, “Oh Peter, you know, you were saying gold was going to go to $5,000.” It’s going to go to $5,000. And in fact, I looked at some of my CNBC interviews and I was predicting $5,000 when gold was $500. So, it’s not like I just started doing it when it was at $900. Right? I’ve had that target on my mind for some time. And I think we’re going to eclipse it. And I think when this decline is over-and it’s been 2 or 3 years since gold hit its high around $1,900- I think it’s going to rise faster than before. Normally markets go down- they take the stairs up and the elevator down. Well I think that gold is going to take a rocket ship back up, because I think when all the people who have been shorting gold and selling gold realize that they’ve got it wrong, and they want to buy it back- it’s just not there. Because I think the real gold- all the gold that was dumped out of ETFs- I think it’s sitting in vaults in Russia and China, and it’s never going to see the light of day again. So when the buyers want it back, it’s not going to be there…

Schiff proclaimed later:

This is the best fundamental environment I’ve ever seen for gold. And also, I do believe that the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are numbered, and when the dollar is no longer accepted as the reserve currency, what’s going to take its place? It’s not going to be the euro. It’s not going to be the yen. I think it’s going to be gold. I think the world is going to go back to gold…


“Gold Will Take Rocket Ship Back Up – Peter Schiff | Kitco News”
Gold discussion starts at 3:44
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers Owns, Plans On Buying More Japanese Stocks

It’s not much of a secret that investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers is bullish on Japanese stocks. Back on February 8 he told CNBC viewers:

I own Japanese stocks… Japan is down 75 percent. 75 percent… Japan is going to continue to print money. It’s not good for the world. It’s making markets go up. But in the meantime I’m anticipating. The yen is collapsing in Japan, but the stock market is going through the roof.


“Jim Rogers: I’m Short US Government Bonds And Investing In Russia – CNBC 2/8/2013”
(Japan discussion starts at 3:57)
YouTube Video

It’s now March, and the former investing partner of George Soros is still big on Japan. Toshiro Hasegawa and Anna Kitanaka reported on the Bloomberg website this past Monday:

“Japan is one of the few places in the world where I own shares,” Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said at a Daiwa Securities Group Inc. (8601) equity conference in Tokyo today. “I have no plans to sell and plan to accumulate more when I can. Abe has been a catalyst and this will continue for several years.”

The Singapore-based investor went into more detail about the Japanese equities he owns. Hasegawa and Kitanaka added:

Rogers said he owns shares of Japanese tractor makers on optimism they will be more competitive abroad because of a weaker yen, as well as brokerages.

Regular observers of Rogers, who correctly-called the commodity bull market that started in 1999, know he also likes agriculture as an investment. So his interest in Japanese tractor makers makes sense.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Hasegawa, Toshiro and Kitanaka, Anna. “Jim Rogers Bullish on Japan Equities on Abe’s Catalyst.” Bloomberg. 4 Mar. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/jim-rogers-bullish-on-japan-equities-on-abe-s-catalyst.html). 6 Mar. 2013.

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Has A Currency War Begun?

A currency war.

Like what happened in the 1930s.

There’s growing talk about it these days. From Matt Clinch on the CNBC website this morning:

As countries try to weaken their currencies to boost exports, the risk of a currency war similar to events seen in the 1930s has heightened and policymakers are making sure they are on the winning side, according to Morgan Stanley.

The balance of power now rests with Japan, according to the bank, as Japan’s policy-makers’ more dovish approach looks set to bring the world a step closer to a currency war…

“If a weaker yen is an important pillar of the strategy to make this export-oriented economy more competitive again, it brings into the picture something that was missing from earlier interactions among central banks of the advanced economies- competitive depreciation,” it said in a research note.

“This, in turn, takes us one step closer to a currency war.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Yesterday I mentioned trends forecaster Gerald Celente. The founder and director of The Trends Research Institute appeared on the FOX Business Network’s The Tom Sullivan Show on January 26 and talked a good deal about currency wars, and thinks one is already underway. Celente told viewers:

Pick up the Financial Times, pick up the Wall Street Journal, pick up anything. Read the headlines. Currency Wars, Currency Wars, Currency Wars, Currency Wars. That’s what I’m concerned about. We’re seeing a replay in time. The Crash of 1929, a Great Depression, Currency Wars, Trade Wars, World War. The Panic of ’08. The Great Depression is a depression going on in a lot of places around the world. There’s Currency Wars.

Listen to Weber, the head of the UBS, former president of Deutsche Bank. His words at Davos- there’s a currency war. Listen to Mervyn King, the outgoing head of the Bank of England- there’s a currency war. Listen to Mantega, Brazil- there’s a currency war.

Celente went on to predict trade wars are on the horizon.


“Gerald Celente – Tom Sullivan on Fox Business News – January 26, 2013”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Clinch, Matt. “Currency Wars Return, 1930s Style: Who Will Lose Out?” CNBC. 7 Feb. 2013. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100441340). 7 Feb. 2013.

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