jihad
Major Terrorist Attack On U.S. ‘Within Weeks’?
I stumbled on the following article on the website of WND (formerly WorldNetDaily), an independent news company. Reza Kahlili wrote Monday:
Iran has given the go-ahead to operatives of three terrorist groups that have infiltrated the United States to carry out missions, including what is expected to be a Mumbai-style attack on a hotel where innocent bystanders would be killed, WND has learned…
Three targets have been chosen within America for imminent attack, and the terror teams have now cut communications with the operational center in Iran, a sign that they are moving ahead with the attacks, according to a high-level intelligence officer within the Islamic regime.
According to an update to the piece Tuesday, Kahili’s “source” revealed the major attack would take place “within weeks.”
Interesting reading (can’t speak for how reliable the information provided is though), which can be viewed in its entirety on the WND site here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
CBS Chicago Asks: Is Chicago, Cook County Safe From Terrorists?
From a CBS Chicago news broadcast last night:
ROB JOHHNSON: Chicago’s Mayor and Police Superintendent have said they would use lessons learned from the Boston Marathon bombings to make Chicago safer.
KATE SULLIVAN: But tonight, we’ve learned that they’ve already made some changes. Chief Correspondent Jay Levine sat down with Superintendent McCarthy and began by asking the simple question, “Are we safe?” So what do you say, Jay?
JAY LEVINE: One word Kate- absolutely.
Tuesday night, CBS Chicago’s Levine focused on Cook County as the second most populous county in the U.S. refines its anti-terrorism plans and procedures in the wake of the Boston terror attack (video segment here).
Personally, as long as our borders are as porous as they are, I won’t feel safe from terrorists. It won’t stop me from doing what I want, when I want, but you won’t see me at some mass gathering or in some other situation that screams “juicy jihadist target” anytime soon.
Besides, I dislike crowds.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Infowars: DOD, Army Warn Of May 2 Terror Threat On 2nd Anniversary Of Bin Laden Death
“Thursday, May 2, is a day to be especially watchful. Jihadists are particularly fond of celebrating anniversaries and on that day in 2011 Seal Team Six found and killed Osama bin Laden. September 11. 2001 is now an indelible part of U.S. history and on September 11, 2012, jihadists attacked and killed an American ambassador and three others.”
-Alan Caruba, RenewAmerica.com, May 1, 2013
Did you know that tomorrow, May 2, 2013, is the second anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death?
To be honest, it totally slipped my mind. Until I happened to stumble across the following on Alex Jones’ Infowars website. Paul Joseph Watson wrote earlier today:
The Department of Defense and the US Army are warning of a possible terror threat to coincide with the second anniversary of the death of Osama Bin Laden, according to a memo sent to Infowars by a source based at Fort Hood.
The entire memo is posted on the Infowars site.
I haven’t heard/seen anything else about a potential terrorist attack tomorrow, although it wouldn’t be too shocking if Al-Qaeda, their affiliates, or someone/some people motivated by their cause attempt to carry out something on the second anniversary of bin Laden’s death.
Watch your six. As always.
You can head over to the Infowars site here to read what Jones and Watson have supposedly unearthed. Mind you, the memo is “unclassified/for official use only.”
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Boston Marathon Explosions Al-Qaeda’s Work?
“President Barack Obama has described al Qaeda as having been ‘decimated,’ ‘on the path to defeat’ or some other variation at least 32 times since the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, according to White House transcripts.”
-CNSNews.com, November 1, 2012
If the horrific explosions in Boston earlier today are confirmed to be the result of terrorism (MSNBC is still calling them “blasts”), I, for one, wouldn’t be surprised.
After all, I’ve constantly warned Survival And Prosperity readers that the threat of terrorism is alive and well these days, particularly from Muslim extremists.
Consider what I wrote on September 10, 2012:
Since I started blogging in 2007, I’ve noticed that complacency seems to be growing over a major terror attack by Al-Qaeda. I guess it’s only natural, considering the amount of time that has passed since September 11, 2001, and the successive blows suffered by the leadership of Al-Qaeda and their affiliates. Still, security was heightened in the U.S. with the 10-year anniversary of 9/11 and in Great Britain with the 2012 London Olympics. But as September 11 rolls around again tomorrow, and being informed that the terror group is big not only on anniversaries but on raising the bar on casualties, I sense a huge degree of complacency as it concerns another terror attack in the United States tomorrow and down the road…
Al-Qaeda is like the Rodney Dangerfield of terrorist organizations these days- can’t get no respect. Look at these recent headlines on some mainstream media websites:
“Terror takes back seat; Americans safer now”
-From the Associated Press on Yahoo! News, September 8, 2012“Never have so few been able to frighten so many”
-Philly.com (joint project of The Philadelphia Inquirer and The Philadelphia Daily News, September 9, 2012)“On anniversary of 9/11, fear is present but not all-consuming”
-The Boston Globe, September 10, 2012There’s even this out of Hong Kong:
“Americans stop fretting about the threat of terrorism”
-South China Morning Post, September 10, 2012I loathe Al-Qaeda as much as any other American. But let’s not call the outcome of the game (Al-Qaeda is now kaput) while it’s still in the early innings, as the next generation of terrorists- inspired by the American response and presence in the Middle East after 9/11- start to replace their predecessors who have been captured, incapacitated, and killed.
As such, keep watching your six, because I don’t think Al-Qaeda is all out of bullets just yet.
So, was today’s incident in Boston Al-Qaeda’s handiwork?
I don’t think so. From what I’ve learned about the terror group, their modus operandi would have demanded significantly more casualties than were suffered today. 9/11 is now supposedly the “bar.” An American Hiroshima- their “wet dream.” Remember their goal: 4 million Americans dead- 2 million of these children. Initial reports claimed the blast occurred well-after the first runners reached the finish line, when many reporters and news cameras had already departed. It’s widely-known Al-Qaeda recognizes the importance of the news media in broadcasting their message- and terrorist activity. Unless it’s subsequently discovered a glitch delayed the explosions, this doesn’t sound like an Al-Qaeda operation.
Plus, I understand that Al-Qaeda is fond of “celebrating” anniversaries. As far as I know, April 15 isn’t a significant date for them.
However, that’s not to say today’s carnage wasn’t the work of one of their affiliates. Or someone motivated by their cause.
Hopefully, time will tell exactly what transpired this afternoon in Boston. And if it was terrorism, who was behind it.
At which point, may justice be served.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Romney 3, Obama 0
Last night I watched the last in a series of U.S. Presidential debates between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the sitting President Barack Obama.
Once again, the incumbent came out swinging. However, despite it sounding once again like the audience was in his corner, President Obama lost.
More so than in the second debate, if you ask me.
An analyst on one of the TV stations covering the debate said it best when she pointed out that Obama was, in effect, debating himself. Since his Republican challenger lacked significant foreign policy experience (the supposed focus of last night’s exchange), it was the incumbent’s record in this area over the past four years that came under scrutiny.
And plenty of dedicated observers of U.S. foreign policy- myself included- will tell you that it’s in shambles.
Particularly in the Middle East.
As I see it, the Obama administration, in its attempt to tone-down what it perceives as an overly-aggressive U.S. foreign policy under the Republicans, has:
• Not deterred Iran from advancing towards a nuclear weapon. Regular readers of this blog know that I believe the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to take advantage of proposed “talks” and other delays to continue work on such a weapon. Notwithstanding military action, they will get a nuke. The prospect of having one is just too tempting. Pop one or two of these over the U.S., and we’ll have a real problem on our hands.
• Not left a stable regime in place in Iraq. I predict a real power vacuum here in the coming years, with a number of internal and external actors vying for ultimate control of the geopolitically-important failed state and its resources.
• Made a big blunder in announcing the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan in 2014. Nothing like giving an enemy a timetable to work with. I suspect Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and their allies will throw everything they’ve got at our men and women in uniform over there as the end of 2014 draws closer, knowing full-well they need only sustain such intensity until the announced exit date. Then what? Attack us on our home soil, possibly. Some terrorism experts have suggested one reason why Al-Qaeda hasn’t launched a massive operation against the United States mainland since 9/11 is because they’ve figured out it’s simply easier to kill scores of Americans on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan. Remember, their stated goal is 4 million Americans dead. Back to being another failed state down the road.
• Alienated our ally Israel. President Obama seems to see Israel- like past U.S. foreign policy- as being too aggressive. And it doesn’t appear the sitting President doesn’t care too much for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu either- despite Vice President Biden and all that “Bibi” talk from the Vice Presidential debate. Consider the following:
November 3, 2011- Several media outlets reported an open-mic incident where then French President Nicolas Sarkozy told his American counterpart, “Netanyahu, I can’t stand him. He’s a liar.” Obama reportedly responded with, “You are sick of him, but I have to work with him every day.”
September 11, 2012- The White House said President Obama would not meet Prime Minister Netanyahu during a U.S. visit later that month. A number of media outlets suggested the Israeli leader was being spurned.
September 12, 2012- President Obama was taped for the CBS show 60 Minutes. From an exchange with Steve Kroft:
KROFT: You’re—you’re saying you don’t feel any pressure from Prime Minister Netanyahu in the middle of a campaign to try and get you to change your policy and draw a line in the sand? You don’t feel any pressure?
OBAMA: When it comes to our national security decisions, any pressure that I feel is simply to do what’s right for the American people. And I am going to block out any noise that’s out there.
Israeli concern over an Iranian nuke is “noise?”
Don’t even get me started on Libya and the deaths of 4 Americans, including an ambassador.
How the Obama administration has handled the Middle East is indicative of U.S. foreign policy as a whole.
Weak.
Worse yet, our adversaries recognize it and actively exploit it.
It shouldn’t be too much of surprise U.S. foreign policy has come to this. After all, Democrats aren’t really known to be big on foreign affairs. If anything, they seem to look at it as an annoyance.
Whenever I think of foreign policy in the Clinton years, two words come to mind.
Cruise missiles.
These days, perhaps it can reduced to just one word.
Drones.
Mitt Romney did a good job at pointing out the poor foreign policy record of the Obama administration.
But, truth be told, most Americans don’t care too much about international affairs.
The Republican challenger won this last debate not by talking about foreign policy- as was the intended focus- but by leading the discussion back to President Obama’s equally-dismal record on the economy.
This is what I meant when I said “more so than in the second debate, if you ask me” earlier in this post.
Romney kept hammering away at Obama’s domestic record as it pertains to take-home pay, unemployment, food stamps, government overreach, over-regulation, small-business woes, trillion dollar deficits, the $16 trillion national debt, the list goes on, and all the way to the end.
It was circling back to the Chicago Democrat’s domestic record these past four years that won the Republican challenger the debate.
In fact, all three debates.
Whether this will translate into a White House win come November 6 remains to be seen.
Regrettably, when it comes to that financial crash I predict is in store for us, I doubt a Romney win will make much of a difference at this point in the game. Economic pain is a certainty. Still, if he’s elected President of the Unites States and implements a sustained, meaningful program of fiscal responsibility, our financial “reckoning day” may not be as devastating as I suspect it would be should the nation continue on its current path.
State Department Releases Annual Terrorism Report
The U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Counterterrorism just released its annual report on terrorism. In the 279-page Country Reports on Terrorism 2011, there are a number of findings that may be of surprise to many Americans (but probably not to regular readers of Survival And Prosperity). From “Chapter 1, Strategic Assessment,” by the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism:
The loss of bin Ladin and these other key operatives puts the network on a path of decline that will be difficult to reverse. These successes are attributable, in large part, to global counterterrorism cooperation, which has put considerable pressure on the al-Qa’ida core leadership in Pakistan. But despite blows in western Pakistan, al-Qa’ida, its affiliates, and its adherents remain adaptable. They have shown resilience; retain the capability to conduct regional and transnational attacks; and, thus, constitute an enduring and serious threat to our national security.
As al-Qa’ida’s core has gotten weaker, we have seen the rise of affiliated groups around the world.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
While the core of Al-Qaeda has taken a beating, Al-Qaeda affiliates, such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), appear to be growing stronger.
Another finding of the report may help explain why this is happening. Also from chapter 1:
Despite the counterterrorism successes in disrupting and degrading the capabilities of al-Qa’ida and its affiliates, al-Qa’ida and violent extremist ideology and rhetoric continued to spread in some parts of the word.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
The State Department still considers Al-Qaeda and its affiliates significant threats to the United States. The Bureau of Counterterrorism pointed out:
Although there were no terrorist attacks in the United States in 2011, we remain concerned about threats to the homeland. In the last several years, individuals who appear to have been trained by al-Qa’ida and its affiliates have operated within U.S. borders. Najibullah Zazi, a U.S. lawful permanent resident, obtained training in Pakistan and, in 2010, pled guilty to charges that he was planning to set off several bombs in the United States. And on October 14, 2011, Nigerian national Umar Abdulmutallab pled guilty to all charges against him in U.S. federal court in Michigan regarding his unsuccessful attempt on December 25, 2009, to detonate an explosive aboard a flight bound for Detroit, Michigan at the behest of AQAP. While these individuals had direct ties to international terrorist groups, separate incidents involving so-called “lone wolf” terrorists also pose a threat to the U.S. homeland – one that can be difficult to detect in advance.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Even though there were no terrorist attacks on American soil last year, a number of U.S. citizens fell victim to acts of terrorism around the world. According to the report, 17 citizens worldwide were killed, 14 citizens worldwide were injured, and 3 citizens worldwide were kidnapped as a result of incidents of terrorism.
You can read the entire report on the State Department website here, or download a .pdf copy of it from the site here.
(Editor’s note: Info added to “Resources” page)
British Intelligence: Al-Qaeda Plotting To Blow Up U.S. Passenger Jet
Has an Al-Qaeda-trained terrorist of Norwegian descent finally received his marching orders? From the Daily Mail (UK) website yesterday:
A terrorist plot to blow up a U.S. passenger jet timed to coincide with the Olympics has been uncovered by security agencies, according to intelligence sources.
Al Qaeda intended to use a radicalised Norwegian Islamic convert to attack U.S. planes in the build-up to the London Games – which start in 26 days on July 27 – it is understood.
The plan centred on using the so-called ‘clean skin’ – a terrorist with no previous criminal record and are unlikely to raise suspicions among the security services – in order to evade airport security…
It is believed the suspect tasked with the attack uses the Islamic name Muslim Abu Abdurrahman, had converted to Islam in 2008, and was recruited in a terrorist training camp in Yemen, sources told the Sunday Times.
According to the Daily Mail piece, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular (AQAP), based in Yemen, is thought to be behind this plot. As far as I know, there’s no comment yet from U.S. officials regarding the plan. However, CBS News picked up the story this morning, and from their website:
CBS News senior correspondent John Miller, a former Deputy Director of National Intelligence, said that despite foiled bomb plots targeting airliners, al Qaeda has not lost its fascination with commercial aviation – and that AQAP (al Qaeda’s branch based in Yemen) has been specifically assigned to find a way to blow up a U.S. plane.
“They were the architects of the first underwear bomb, they were the architects of the ingenious printer bomb which was interdicted before it could go off,” Miller said. “And I think what we’re seeing once again is they’ve tried to put a bomb on a person and get them on a plane. Whether it has anything to do with the Olympics or the Fourth of July – one of the chosen target holidays by bin Laden – is something we don’t yet know.
“Norwegian At Center Of New Al Qaeda Plot Fears”
CBS News Video
Sources:
“Al Qaeda ‘plot to blow up passenger jet’ in run up to Olympics uncovered by security forces.” Daily Mail. 1 July 2012. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2167166/Al-Qaeda-plot-blow-passenger-jet-run-Olympics-discovered-security-forces.html). 2 July 2012.
“Norwegian at center of new al Qaeda plot fears.” CBS News. 2 July 2012. (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_162-57464755/norwegian-at-center-of-new-al-qaeda-plot-fears/). 2 July 2012.
Al-Qaeda Behind Colorado Wildfires?
When I saw the following on the FOX News website tonight, I initially rolled my eyes:
Raging Wildfires in Colorado prompts FBI investigation
The Federal Bureau Investigation announced Wednesday that it would investigate the cause of a raging wildfire that displaced thousands of residents and an untold number of homes in Colorado…
Then I remembered something I came across recently that mentioned Al-Qaeda wanting to use such fires as a terror weapon. From Los Angeles ABC affiliate KABC-TV Channel 7 back on May 3:
Al Qaeda terrorists are calling on followers to ignite wildfires in the U.S., which could make California a target…
An al Qaeda-linked website is now calling on extremists to set fires in remote areas. The websites even provide instructions on how to make fire bombs and firefighters are taking it seriously. “It does not seem all that farfetched. A wildfire moves quite quickly and can inflict damage, and if people have that intent, it’s very frightening,” said Battalion chief Julie Hutchinson with the California Fire Department. The instructions to extremists come from Inspire, al Qaeda’s online publication which was started by American-born al Qaeda leader Anwar al-Awlaki. Al-Awlaki was killed by a U.S. missile strike in September, but the publication is still being produced.
ABC Video
In addition, Gwen Florio wrote on The Billings Gazette website on May 4:
Terrorists who want to strike fear in the hearts of Americans would do well to set wildfires in Montana, al-Qaida advises in the most recent issue of its English-language magazine, Inspire.
“It is difficult to choose a better place other than in the valleys of Montana where the population increases rapidly,” Inspire’s “AQ Chef” columnist writes.
It sure will be interesting to see if the FBI investigation turns up anything.
Sources:
Granda, Carlos, Gregory, John and Michaelson, Elex. “Al Qaeda threatening to start wildfires in US.” KABC-TV Channel 7. 3 May 2012. (http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/national_world&id=8646527). 28 June 2012.
Florio, Gwen. “Al-Qaida magazine urges terrorists to set wildfires in Montana.” The Billings Gazette. 4 May 2012. (http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/al-qaida-magazine-urges-terrorists-to-set-wildfires-in-montana/article_33122cb4-30b1-5f70-a917-c6a58a629cd5.html). 28 June 2012.
British Spymaster: London Olympics Attractive Target For Al-Qaeda
Anti-terror police arrest two men in east London
British counter-terrorism police on Thursday arrested two men aged 18 and 32 in east London in an operation that was aimed partly at protecting the London Olympics, sources told NBC News.
-MSNBC.com, June 28, 2012
With Al-Qaeda still lurking and the 2012 Summer Olympic Games to begin late next month, the head of Great Britain’s MI5 (Military Intelligence, Section 5- tasked with protecting the U.K. from terrorism/espionage) believes London will be a juicy target for terrorists. Ashis Ray wrote on the Times of India website yesterday:
A month before the London Olympics, head of Britain’s domestic spy agency said the games were an attractive target for terrorists and that some terror networks have thought about whether they could pull off an attack.
In a rare public speech on Monday, MI5 director-general Jonathan Evans though dispelled fears saying, “The Games are not an easy target and the fact that we have disrupted multiple terrorist plots here and abroad in recent years demonstrates that the UK as a whole is not an easy target for terrorism.”
The British spymaster talked about the threat posed by Al-Qaeda to our allies across the pond. From the article:
Scores of would-be British jihadis are travelling to Arab countries to be trained by al-Qaida. They are currently being trained in Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Somalia, Evans said. Figures last year suggested more than 100 Britons were absorbed by terror groups in Somalia.
It is suspected that many are now being prepared for terrorist attacks across Yemen, Egypt and Libya. Evans also suggested there could be a steady stream of new recruits from the UK. From a British domestic perspective, Evans said, “Some will return to the UK and pose a threat here. This is a new and worrying development.” Speaking about the threat perception in Britain, he said, “In back rooms, in cars and on the streets of this country there is no shortage of individuals talking about wanting to mount terrorist attacks here.”
If Al-Qaeda launches a terror attack at the Summer Olympics, how would they carry it out? Asian News International reported on June 20:
The former Head of Department of Asymmetric Threats at the Joint Military Intelligence Division, in Athens, Greece, Ioannis Galatas has suggested that the 2012 Olympic Games may be a launching pad for potential terrorist threats, including Al Qaeda’s ‘dirty bomb’ plans, even as the successor to the late Osama bin Laden and a medical doctor himself, Al-Zawahiri, struggled to regain “face” amongst extremists opposing the West.
There have been numerous terrorist attacks since New York’s “9/11″ but none quite matching its scale and impact, and perhaps this has been a matter of disruption, deterrence and, most disturbingly, patience.
However, Galatas suggested that such attacks have been thwarted by national security measures and intelligence, even as the threat of a CBRN attack, referring to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear, is ever present and it might also be the wild card that the terrorist networks, and “Al Qaeda” in particular are holding back.
“It is possible that Al-Qaeda’s success with the September 11 attacks has set the bar too high for its current CBRN capabilities. Al-Qaeda may be concerned that a CBRN attack that ‘only’ kills dozens of people would be perceived as a relative failure and demonstrate its weakened position relative to its pre-9/11 stature,” Galatas said.
Galatas added that there is no indication that Al Qaeda has abandoned its pursuit of CBRN weapons, including so-called “dirty bombs”.
“The possibility of a patient Al Qaeda is a disturbing possibility worth remembering,” he said.
“How Tough Is it to Build a Dirty Bomb?”
YouTube Video
Sources:
Ray, Ashis. “Britain fears al-Qaida may target Olympics.” Times of India. 27 June 2012. (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-06-27/uk/32440844_1_al-qaida-qaida-jonathan-evans). 28 June 2012.
“London Olympics may be launching pad for ‘patient’ Qaeda’s ‘dirty bomb’ terror dreams.” Asian News International. 20 June 2012. (http://in.news.yahoo.com/london-olympics-may-launching-pad-patient-qaedas-dirty-113646870–spt.html). 28 June 2012.
‘Shadow CIA’ Discloses Threat From Missing Libyan Missiles
Speaking of terrorism this lovely second morning of summer (first time in days the forecast isn’t calling for 90 degree plus weather here in Chicago), remember when I blogged about the following threat to worldwide aviation coming out of a Qaddafi-less Libya in North Africa? From September 27 last year:
Flying the friendly skies just got more dangerous.
According to officials at a recent secret White House meeting, around 20,000 portable surface-to-air missiles have gone missing in Libya.
By the way, these missiles have the capability of bringing down commercial airliners.
On January 30, 2012, I updated Survival And Prosperity readers with the following:
20,000 portable SAMs originally reported missing. 5,000 recovered to-date.
That still leaves 15,000 missiles unaccounted for.
And just a couple of weeks ago on May 3, I received the following Security Weekly report from the global intelligence company Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (commonly referred to as the “Shadow CIA” in the MSM), that talked in-depth about the Libyan missiles. STRATFOR analyzed the danger of these man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) being used against civilian aircraft in a terrorist attack.
Reprinted with permission of STRATFOR:
The Continuing Threat of Libyan Missiles
By Scott Stewart
In March 2011, while many of the arms depots belonging to the government of Libya were being looted, we wrote about how the weapons taken from Libyan government stockpiles could end up being used to fuel violence in the region and beyond. Since then we have seen Tuareg militants, who were previously employed by the regime of former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, leave Libya with sizable stockpiles of weapons and return to their homes in northern Mali, where they have successfully wrested control of the region away from the Malian government.
These Tuareg militants were aided greatly in their battle against the government by the hundreds of light pickup trucks mounted with crew-served heavy weapons that they looted from Libyan depots. These vehicles, known as “technicals,” permitted the Tuareg rebels to outmaneuver and at times outgun the Malian military. Moreover, we have recently received reports that Tuareg rebels also brought back a sizable quantity of SA-7b shoulder fired surface-to-air missiles, also known as man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
While we have not yet seen reports of the Tuaregs using these missiles, reports of close interaction between the Tuaregs in northern Mali and regional jihadist franchise al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) raise concern that AQIM could buy or somehow acquire them from the Tuaregs. We have seen unconfirmed reports of AQIM fighters possessing MANPADS, and Algerian authorities have seized MANPADS among the weapons being smuggled into the country from Libya. For example, in mid-February, Algerian authorities seized 15 SA-24 and 28 SA-7 Russian-made MANPADS at a location in the southern desert called In Amenas.
For the Tuareg militants, the MANPADS are seen as a way to protect themselves against attack by government aircraft. They also serve the same function for AQIM, which has been attacked by Mauritanian aircraft in northern Mali. However, the possession of such weapons by a group like AQIM also raises the possibility of their being used against civilian aircraft in a terrorist attack — a threat we will now examine in more detail.
Uses and Weaknesses of MANPADS
MANPADS were first fielded in the late 1960s, and since that time more than 1 million have been fielded by at least 25 different countries that manufacture them. These include large countries such as the United States, Russia and China as well as smaller countries such as North Korea, Iran and Pakistan.
By definition, MANPADS are designed to be man-portable. The missiles are balanced on and fired from the shooter’s shoulder, and the launch tube averages roughly 1.5 meters (5 feet) in length and 7 centimeters (3 inches) in diameter. Since MANPADS are intended to be operated by infantry soldiers on the front lines, durability is an important part of their design. Also, while the guidance mechanism within the missile itself can be quite complex, a simple targeting interface makes most MANPADS relatively easy to operate.
The SA-7 has a kill zone with an upper limit of 1,300 meters, while some newer models can reach altitudes of more than 3,658 meters. The average range of MANPADS is 4.8 kilometers (about 3 miles). This means that most large commercial aircraft, which generally cruise at around 9,140 meters, are out of the range of MANPADS, but the weapon can be employed against them effectively during the extremely vulnerable takeoff and landing portions of a flight or when they are operating at lower altitudes.
Despite their rugged design, MANPADS are not without limitations. Some research suggests that battery life makes the weapon obsolete after about 22 years. Missiles treated roughly, stored poorly and not maintained well may not last anywhere near that long. Since replacement batteries can be found on the black market, battery life is not necessarily a key limiting factor. For example, two SA-7s used by al Qaeda to target an Israeli civilian flight over Mombasa, Kenya, in 2002 were 28 years old and appeared to be fully functional. It is believed they did not hit their target due to countermeasures employed by the aircraft. Some of the classified U.S. military reports released by WikiLeaks indicted that, many times in Iraq and Afghanistan, the older SA-7s were ejected from their tubes and had engine ignition but failed to acquire and lock onto the intended target. This may also have been the case in the Mombasa attack.
Perhaps the most limiting factor to MANPADS’ utility has to do with the kind of aircraft being targeted. As MANPADS were developed and refined for military use, so were countermeasures for military aircraft. This means that most modern military aircraft are equipped with countermeasures that are effective against older models of MANPADS. Due to budget constraints, however, most commercial airliners and general aviation aircraft are not equipped with military-style countermeasures systems, which can alert a pilot that a missile has been launched so proper action can be taken, including evasive maneuvers, the deployment of infrared flares to decoy the missile or lasers to blind the missile’s seeker. Industry estimates indicate that outfitting and maintaining the entire U.S. airline fleet with countermeasures that could foil missiles would cost $40 billion. Because of the high cost of such defensive systems, the bulk of the civilian aviation fleet worldwide remains undefended and vulnerable to MANPADS.
MANPADS in Terrorist Attacks
The SA-7 was first deployed by the Soviet army in 1968 and was sent to North Vietnam, where it was used in combat against American military aircraft in the early 1970s. But it did not take long for militant groups to understand how the weapons could be utilized in a terrorist attack. In January and September 1973, Black September militants attempted to use SA-7s against Israeli civilian aircraft in Rome (the January flight was carrying then-Prime Minister Golda Meir). Both attempts were thwarted in their final minutes.
Two years later, the first successful MANPADS attack against a civilian aircraft occurred when North Vietnamese forces launched an SA-7 missile against an Air Vietnam flight, resulting in the deaths of all 26 passengers and crewmembers. One of the most famous civilian MANPADS attacks was in 1994, when two SA-16s were used to shoot down a Rwandan government flight, killing the presidents of Rwanda and Burundi and sparking the Rwandan genocide, which resulted in approximately 800,000 deaths in 100 days (the identity of the attackers remains a matter of debate). Over the years, MANPADS attacks have been plotted and actively attempted in at least 20 countries, resulting in more than 900 civilian fatalities. The most recent MANPADS attack that resulted in loss of life was the strike by al Shabaab over Somalia in 2007 against a Belarusian cargo plane. Eleven people were killed. The attack reportedly involved a Russian SA-18 that was manufactured in Russia in 1995. It was one of a batch of SA-18s sent from Russia to Eritrea, some of which were provided to the Somali jihadist group.
A MANPADS attack does not necessarily mean certain death for an aircrew and passengers. In fact, some civilian airliners hit by MANPADS have made emergency landings without loss of human life. In November 2004, a DHL Airbus 300 was struck in the left wing by a MANPADS after leaving Baghdad International Airport on a mail delivery flight. While the aircraft was badly damaged and one engine caught fire, the pilot still was able to land safely.
The man-portable facet of MANPADS severely limits the size of the warhead that the weapon can carry compared to larger surface-to-air missile systems. They are also designed to engage and destroy low-flying military aircraft densely packed with fuel and ordnance. Because of this, MANPADS are not ideally suited for bringing down large civilian aircraft. Though airliners are hardly designed to absorb a missile strike, the damage a single MANPADS can inflict may not be catastrophic. MANPADS systems employ infrared seekers that are drawn to the heat signature of an aircraft’s engine, and therefore tend to hit the engine. Large commercial jets are designed to be able to fly and land if they lose an engine, and because of these factors, nearly 30 percent of the commercial aircraft struck by MANPADS have managed to make some sort of emergency or crash landing without loss of life, despite, in some cases, sustaining significant structural damage to the aircraft.
Still, the threat is not insignificant. The other 70 percent of civilian planes that have been hit by MANPADS have crashed with considerable loss of life. Indeed, on departure from or approach to an airport, airliners do have to traverse predictable airspace at low altitudes — well within the engagement envelope of MANPADS — and their airframes are under considerable stress. An attack at low altitude also provides the pilot less time to react and recover from an attack before the aircraft strikes the ground. These lower-level phases of flight also frequently occur over large swaths of built-up urban terrain that would be impossible to search and secure, even temporarily. Due to the noise involved with living under a flight path, this is usually low-rent real estate. With flight paths so well established, even casual observers generally have a sense of when and where large, low-flying aircraft can be found at any given time over their city.
Outlook
As noted in Stratfor’s previous coverage of the MANPADS threat, since 1973 at least 30 civilian aircraft have been brought down and approximately 920 civilians have been killed by MANPADS attacks. These attacks brought about the concerted international effort to remove these weapons from the black and gray arms markets. Because of these efforts, attempts to use MANPADS against civilian airliners were down about 66 percent from 2000 to 2010 compared to the previous decade. Nevertheless, sting operations and seizures of illicit arms shipments clearly demonstrate that militant groups continue to work to acquire the weapons. There are at least 11 active non-state militant groups that are believed to possess MANPADS, and we have seen MANPADS employed sporadically in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. There are more than 10 other groups, such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, that have been making efforts to obtain them. While there is no evidence that these groups now have them in their arsenals, their efforts may have become easier as missiles from Libya have trickled onto the black arms market.
Estimates vary widely, but it appears that the Libyans had an inventory of 20,000 MANPADS. It appears that the SA-7b seems to have been the most common MANPADS in the Libyan inventory, though there were also several far more advanced SA-24 missiles (the latest Russian design) that were intended to be used in vehicle-mounted launchers sold to the Libyans but that could be used as MANPADS if they were paired with the proper gripstocks and battery coolant units. Of those 20,000 missiles, teams from the United States and NATO have secured roughly 5,000; another 5,000 are thought to be in the hands of the various Libyan militias and to still be in the country. That leaves a remainder of 10,000 missiles. While a number of them were destroyed by NATO airstrikes or launched at aircraft, it is believed that somewhere around half have been smuggled out of the country. For obvious reasons, obtaining an accurate number of missiles is very difficult. Indeed, with a variety of parties involved in the smuggling, it is doubtful that anyone knows for sure how many missiles have been smuggled out of Libya.
The U.S. government has designated $40 million for a program intended to buy back Libyan MANPADS, but clearly many of them have already made it out of the country. In addition to the February seizure in Algeria, Egyptian authorities seized eight SA-24 missiles in the Sinai Peninsula in September 2011. A month earlier, two Israeli Cobra helicopters came under fire from a MANPADS fired from Sinai during a multi-stage attack launched from Sinai that resulted in the deaths of eight Israelis. The missile missed the Cobras. Indeed, the Jerusalem Post reported that, due to the perceived increase in the MANPADS threat from Sinai, commercial aircraft landing in Eilat have changed their approach pattern.
To date, we are not aware of any attacks or attempted attacks against commercial airliners using MANPADS taken from Libyan stocks. But with the missiles in the hands of Palestinian militants in Sinai and Gaza as well as in the inventory of groups such as AQIM, there is a legitimate concern that they will be used in an attack in the immediate future. Jihadists have long had a fixation on aviation as a target. With increases in airline passenger and luggage screening, MANPADS provide jihadists with the means to bypass those security measures and conduct attacks against civilian aircraft. They may have problems getting missiles into Europe or North America, but with active jihadist franchises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and North Africa, there is a very real threat of a MANPADS attack directed against U.S.- or European-flagged carriers in those regions. But with a year now gone since the Libyan weapons stockpiles were looted, Libyan MANPADS could be almost anywhere in the world, and it is somewhat surprising that they have not been more widely used.
The Continuing Threat of Libyan Missiles is republished with permission of STRATFOR.
So, of the 20,000 missiles, 5,000 are secured by the U.S. and NATO, and 5,000 are thought to belong to Libyan militias and in-country.
Which leaves possibly around 10,000 MANPADS still out there.
Does knowing this stop me from flying? Heck no. However, I’m all for equipping commercial airliners and general aviation aircraft with military-style countermeasures systems because of this information. Too bad the bill will be steep.
Recent Posts
- Nitro-Pak Pre-Memorial Day Sale With Savings Up To 75% Off
- Resource Of The Week: King World News- Broadcast
- Chicago Democrat Denounces ‘Extremists’ As Restrictive Concealed-Carry Legislation Stalls In Illinois Senate
- Weekend Blogging
- CNBC Tries Calling Out Peter Schiff Over Gold Price
- CBO: ObamaCare’s Gross Costs Over 10 Years May Be Nearly Twice White House’s Original Projections
- Solar Flares Could Be Directed At Earth Over The Next Week
- Illinois Senate Could Vote On Right To Carry Legislation Friday
- Anti-Gun Illinois State Senators Could Force Votes This Week On Flawed Right To Carry, Magazine Ban Legislation
- Chicago ‘Magnificent Mile’ Robbery Latest In Series Of Criminal Incidents By Young People Downtown
Recent Comments
- Editor on A Lesson For Preppers From ‘The Twilight Zone’
- zooeyhall on A Lesson For Preppers From ‘The Twilight Zone’
- Editor on Quote For The Week
- Editor on Chicago Reporter Goes Off Anti-Gun Reservation
- Nina Impuesta on Quote For The Week
- Nina Impuesta on Chicago Reporter Goes Off Anti-Gun Reservation
- Editor on Quote For The Week
- tj & the bear on Quote For The Week
- Editor on Project Prepper: Water Container Photos
- Editor on Project Prepper: Water Container Photos
Blogroll
Websites
Tags
Categories
Archives
grekland resor
Finance blogs
Resa K�penhamn
SEO services provided by Search Engine Optimization
Add blog to our directory.