Jim Rogers
Jim Rogers Predicts Gold ‘Will Go Much, Much Higher’
I just got done reading an insightful article on the London branch website of U.S.-based investment research firm Morningstar. Legendary investor Jim Rogers was being interviewed by Morningstar’s Chris Menon concerning his thoughts about investing in gold. Here is an excerpt from their exchange:
MENON: Over what time horizon should investors expect to make money by investing now?
ROGERS: Certainly, over the course of ten years gold will go much, much higher because I don’t see any possibility that governments are going to stop printing money in the next decade. And as long as that’s going to happen then gold is certainly going to go higher and probably much higher.
The former investing partner of George Soros also shared his views on purported gold manipulation, whether or not gold’s recent plummet in price is a buying opportunity, and the various vehicles for investing in the precious metal.
As for Rogers himself? He tells Menon he likes coins (something I’ve blogged about before)
You can read the entire interview on the Morningstar (UK) site here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers Owns, Plans On Buying More Japanese Stocks
It’s not much of a secret that investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers is bullish on Japanese stocks. Back on February 8 he told CNBC viewers:
I own Japanese stocks… Japan is down 75 percent. 75 percent… Japan is going to continue to print money. It’s not good for the world. It’s making markets go up. But in the meantime I’m anticipating. The yen is collapsing in Japan, but the stock market is going through the roof.
“Jim Rogers: I’m Short US Government Bonds And Investing In Russia – CNBC 2/8/2013”
(Japan discussion starts at 3:57)
YouTube Video
It’s now March, and the former investing partner of George Soros is still big on Japan. Toshiro Hasegawa and Anna Kitanaka reported on the Bloomberg website this past Monday:
“Japan is one of the few places in the world where I own shares,” Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said at a Daiwa Securities Group Inc. (8601) equity conference in Tokyo today. “I have no plans to sell and plan to accumulate more when I can. Abe has been a catalyst and this will continue for several years.”
The Singapore-based investor went into more detail about the Japanese equities he owns. Hasegawa and Kitanaka added:
Rogers said he owns shares of Japanese tractor makers on optimism they will be more competitive abroad because of a weaker yen, as well as brokerages.
Regular observers of Rogers, who correctly-called the commodity bull market that started in 1999, know he also likes agriculture as an investment. So his interest in Japanese tractor makers makes sense.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Source:
Hasegawa, Toshiro and Kitanaka, Anna. “Jim Rogers Bullish on Japan Equities on Abe’s Catalyst.” Bloomberg. 4 Mar. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/jim-rogers-bullish-on-japan-equities-on-abe-s-catalyst.html). 6 Mar. 2013.
David Rosenberg: Gold Heading To $3,000 An Ounce
I haven’t talked about David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist and Strategist too much on this blog. But back when I was running Boom2Bust.com, I would mention him on a regular basis. On February 9, 2011, I wrote:
For those of you not familiar with Mr. Rosenberg, back in 2007 he was one of the first economists to warn investors of the “Great Recession.” I started following Rosenberg when he was still Chief North American Economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in New York. CNN Money said this of the economist last year:
Rosenberg, who left an eight-year career at Merrill Lynch to become chief economist at Gluskin Sheff last May, is one of Wall Street’s best-regarded financial experts. His on-the-ball predictions have landed him on Institutional Investors’ list of All-Star researchers for years.
Yep. Rosenberg was one of the original “crash prophets.”
And these days, he’s really bullish on gold.
Jonathan Burton posted the following on MarketWatch’s blog The Tell last night:
Forget the Dow. If you really want to make some money, buy gold, says David Rosenberg. Gold is heading to $3,000 an ounce, the chief economist & strategist at investment firm Gluskin Sheff + Associates said Tuesday in a speech at a CFA Institute of Chicago conference.
$3,000 an ounce. Significantly higher from where his old employers see the yellow metal going in the next couple years. Jan Harvey reported on the Reuters website yesterday:
Even Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which remains broadly positive on gold, cut its forecasts this week. While still expecting prices to rise strongly next year to an average of $1,838 an ounce, it sees prices turning lower in 2015.
“The importance of investors, coupled with the lack of investor buying, has led to concerns that non-commercial market participants in general have reassessed the rationale of holding gold in a portfolio,” the bank said, reducing its 2013 and 2014 forecasts and cutting its 2015 price view to $1,675 from $1,900.
Still, there’s a reason why Rosenberg was the only economist recognized for his accurate economic projections in Fortune Magazine’s “Best and Worst of Wall Street 2011” and was ranked most accurate forecaster for 2011 by MSNBC. Back in that February 2011 post of mine I called attention to what I called a “must-read” article by him in the Globe and Mail (Canada) in which he wrote:
The United States is in a radical money-easing environment, in which the Fed is keeping interest rates artificially low while pumping money into the economy. This type of policy breeds speculative rallies. It inevitably results in boom-bust cycles such as the ones we saw in 1999-2002, 2006-09 and today. This is no time for short memories.
At best, the Fed has managed to create an illusion of prosperity, but it won’t last. And that should surprise no one who has followed the Fed’s activities over the past couple of years.
“Keeping interest rates artificially low.” “Pumping money into the economy.” “Speculative rallies.”
Any of this sound familiar to readers? It should, as other more-visible “prophets” (Faber, Rogers, Schiff, to name a few) are warning about such events now in 2013.
I leave you with this from Rosenberg’s Globe and Mail piece:
This is no time for short memories.
You can read Burton’s entire Rosenberg gold price call post on The Tell here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sources:
Harvey, Jan. “More banks peel away from bullish consensus on gold.” Reuters. 5 Mar. 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/05/gold-forecasts-idUSL6N0BXJ1620130305). 6 Mar. 2013.
Rosenberg, David. “Fed’s illusion of prosperity bound to vanish.” Globe and Mail. 8 Feb. 2011. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/feds-illusion-of-prosperity-bound-to-vanish/article1899546/). 6 Mar. 2013.
Billionaire Investors Divided On Gold As Demand Hits Record Value Level In 2012
We’re on a roll today. Consider it make-up material for yesterday. Anyway, let’s turn our attention over to money. “Real” money like gold, that is. The precious metal had another solid year in 2012. From a press release today issued by the London-based World Gold Council, the gold industry’s market development organization:
2012 sees gold demand hit record value level
Q4 2012 up 4% year-on-year as India, China and central banks drive demand
In value terms, gold demand in 2012 was US$236.4bn – an all-time high. Gold demand in value terms for the final quarter of the year was 6% higher year-on-year at US$66.2bn, marking the highest ever Q4 total.
Global gold demand in Q4 2012 was 1,195.9 tonnes(t), up 4% on the same quarter in 2011. In Q4 2012, the average gold price reached a record level of US$1,721.8/oz, up 1% on the previous record average price in Q3 2011. The average price during 2012 was US$1,669.0/oz, up 6% from US$1,571.5/oz in 2011.
The key findings from the report are as follows:
• Whilst Indian full year demand was down 12% on the previous year, the market performed strongly in the final quarter with total demand at 261.9t, an increase of 41% on the same period last year. Both jewellery and investment demand reached their highest levels for six quarters. Demand for jewellery was up 35% year-on-year to reach 153.0t, and strong retail demand led to 108.9t of investment buying. In India the prospect of duty increases, which came in to force in January 2013, may have added to strong buying in the final quarter to beat the anticipated price rises.
• Chinese demand was flat year-on–year, reflecting the impact of economic slowdown. However looking at Q4, total demand was up 1% on the previous quarter to 202.5t. Jewellery demand was137.0t up 1% on Q4 2011 and investment demand was 65.5t, up 2% on the previous year. These increases may reflect the fact that the economic slowdown in China appears to have been shorter than expected.
• Central bank buying for the full year rose by 17% compared to 2011, totalling 534.6t, the highest level since 1964. Central bank purchases stood at 145.0t in Q4, up 29% on the corresponding quarter in the previous year, making this the eighth consecutive quarter in which central banks have been net purchasers of gold.
• Global investment in ETFs in 2012 was up significantly by 51% on the preceding year, though Q4 was down 16% to 88.1t when compared with the high levels recorded in Q3 2012.
“Gold Demand Trends: Full year and Q4 2012″
WGC Video
However, the price of gold hasn’t glimmered too much lately. Debarati Roy and Phoebe Sedgman reported on the Bloomberg website this evening:
Billionaire investors George Soros and Louis Moore Bacon cut their stakes in exchange-traded products backed by gold last quarter as futures dropped the most in more than eight years. John Paulson maintained his holding.
Soros Fund Management LLC reduced its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest fund backed by the metal, 55 percent to 600,000 shares as of Dec. 31 from three months earlier, a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed yesterday. Bacon’s Moore Capital Management LP sold its entire stake in the SPDR fund and lowered holdings in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust. Paulson & Co., the largest investor in SPDR, kept its stake at 21.8 million shares.
Roy and Sedgman noted gold prices fell 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, the most since the second quarter of 2004. Renewed optimism in the U.S. economy was the reason given by a number of observers cited in the piece.
Now, why is it that the “crash prophets” who saw the 2008 global economic crisis and “Great Recession” coming, such as Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff, are sounding the alarm about more hard times ahead of us, while those finance- and investing-types who never saw the financial storm approaching until it bit them and their clients in the rear-end are the same ones now predicting “all’s well” for the U.S. economy? Are they not aware of the financial manipulation that’s been required to get us this short-term, artificial prosperity?
My guess is that it registers, but they’re incapable of seeing the big picture.
All I know is this. While I’ll keep an open mind, I’m inclined to cast my lot with those guys who correctly-called the “Panic of ‘08” and have a knack of being correct on a consistent basis.
You can read the entire WGC press release on their website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Source:
Roy, Debarati and Sedgman, Phoebe. “Billionaires Soros, Bacon Cut Gold Holdings on Decline.” Bloomberg. 14 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/billionaires-soros-bacon-reduce-gold-holdings-as-prices-slump.html). 14 Feb. 2013.
Behold The Golden Bear: Russia Now World’s Biggest Gold Buyer
For years I’ve heard the term “Russian Bear” being used to describe Russia and its might.
For example, “NATO better not put too many missiles in Eastern Europe, or they’re going to anger the Russian Bear.”
After reading this morning about Russia acquiring literally tons of gold over the last ten years, perhaps they should be referred to as the “Golden Bear” going forward.
Scott Rose and Olga Tanas reported on the Bloomberg website this morning:
When Vladimir Putin says the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly, he’s not just talking. He’s betting on it.
Not only has Putin made Russia the world’s largest oil producer, he’s also made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570 metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than runner-up China, according to IMF data compiled by Bloomberg. The added gold is also almost triple the weight of the Statue of Liberty.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
I’m starting to see what legendary investor Jim Rogers was getting at regarding Russia.
While a number of “developed” countries are selling the precious metal these days- including economically-troubled France, Portugal, and Spain- “developing” nations are acquiring it with a fervor. Rose and Tanas added:
Quantitative easing by major economies to support financial asset prices is driving demand for gold in the emerging world, said Marcus Grubb, head of investment research at the World Gold Council. Before the crisis, central banks were net sellers of 400 to 500 tons a year. Now, led by Russia and China, they’re net buyers by about 450 tons, Grubb said by phone from London, where his industry group is based…
“That’s a very significant switch, and obviously a very positive one for the gold market,” Grubb said.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Meanwhile, the price of paper gold is taking a hit this morning. Barbara Kollmeyer and Myra Saefong reported this morning on the MarketWatch website:
G-7 nations could release a statement this week reaffirming a commitment to “market-determined” exchange rates, responding to heated talk about a currency war…
The Group of 20 nations will meet later in the week, with currencies expected to be at the top of the agenda.
As gold has benefitted from currency devaluations, traders are wary of these developments.
In addition, light volumes due to Asia’s observance of the Lunar New Year and a lack of economic data being released today are fueling downward pressure on the gold price.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Rose, Scott and Tanas, Olga. “Putin Turns Black Gold to Bullion as Russia Outbuys World.” Bloomberg.com. 11 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-10/putin-turns-black-gold-into-bullion-as-russia-out-buys-world.html). 11 Feb. 2013.
Kollmeyer, Barbara and Saefong, Myra. “Gold hit on worry of possible G-7 currency salvo.” MarketWatch. 11 Feb. 2013. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-edges-higher-as-dollar-weakens-2013-02-10). 11 Feb. 2013.
Jim Rogers: ‘Short Long-Term United States Government Bonds Right Now’
Thursday afternoon, investor, commentator, and author Jim Rogers sat down with CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo at the New York Stock Exchange. Predictably, the discussion focused on his thoughts about the U.S. economy and larger financial system- and where he thinks there are opportunities to make money. Rogers warned viewers:
It’s all artificial what’s going on right now. The Federal Reserve is printing money as fast as they can. But the Bank of Japan said “We’re going to print unlimited money.” And so you know what the Federal Reserve said? “We’ll match you, we’ll print money too!” I mean, this is insane… You think this is a sound economy?
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
The Singapore-based investor, who “retired” at age 37 and proceeded to ride a motorcycle around the world- and then write about it- went on to share the following investment-related nuggets on Closing Bell:
• Rogers is shorting government bonds. Not only did he say “Short long-tern United States government bonds right now,” but he also revealed this was his main U.S. investment.
• Owns Japanese stocks
• Investing in Russia- “I’m buying the bonds, the currency, and stocks.”
• Short Apple
• Short JPMorgan calls- “I’ve been short JPMorgan calls. They all expire worthless. I’m still short a few, and they’re not expiring worthless. I may lose money on that.”
• Sees Russia as the single best investment opportunity right now.
• Or North Korea- “The only way to invest is to buy the stamps or the coins. And your viewers are not going to go out and buy North Korean gold and silver coins. But that’s a fabulous, fabulous opportunity.”
• Wouldn’t buy gold at these levels- unless they were North Korean gold coins.
“Jim Rogers: I’m Short US Government Bonds And Investing In Russia – CNBC 2/8/2013″
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff: Stock Market Rally ‘An Illusion’
Marc Faber. Jim Rogers. Peter Schiff.
Three “crash prophets” who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis in the United States.
I’ve already blogged today about what Faber and Rogers think of rising U.S. stock prices- and what they suspect is behind it.
How about Schiff, the CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC?
From his February 1 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog:
Well the Dow Jones closed above 14,000 today. That’s something it hasn’t done since November 2007. Of course, the media is going to make a big deal about Dow 14,000, the economy is coming back, the markets are coming back.
But, of course, all of this is an illusion created by inflation.
When you debase your currency- when you have inflated dollars that you use to measure stock prices- of course stock prices are going to go up. The price of everything is going up. The government denies there’s inflation. But prices prove it. As if we even need that. The money supply going up is the sheer definition of inflation. And we’re creating a lot of money. And prices are responding by rising, and stock prices are no exception.
But remember, the last time the Dow Jones was at 14,000 back in ’07, gold was about $700 an ounce. Today, gold’s about $1,600 an ounce. So the Dow would have to double from here, and it still wouldn’t be where it was in terms of real money five-and-a-half years ago.
So this rally is an illusion.
But the people on Wall Street don’t even want to acknowledge that.
And going forward? Schiff pointed out:
We’re already at 0 percent interest rates, we’re already at 8 percent unemployment- 14 percent if you use the U-6 number. And that’s as good as it gets during a recovery. And now we’re already trending down.
And I think if the Federal Reserve wants to slow down the rise in interest rates- which we know it does- it’s going to have to accelerate the QE. I don’t think $85 billion of money printing is enough to keep interest rates from rising. And so they’re going to have to print even more. That means the dollar is going lower. Commodity prices going higher. Looks what’s happened to oil prices- they’re almost at $98 a barrel. Look at Brent- Brent Crude is really up. It’s almost at a $20 premium now over North Sea. Gold prices have been stable, but I think gold’s about to take off. I think on Wall Street they’re rationalizing. They’re selling gold and selling gold stocks because they claim that the crisis is over, there’s nothing to worry about anymore, Europe isn’t falling apart, the U.S. economy is getting better, so there’s no reason to own gold. And so you sell gold and you sell your gold stocks. But they don’t understand. People weren’t buying gold because of the European crisis or because of even the U.S. financial crisis. They were buying gold long before those crises began. Look at how gold was doing from 2000 to 2007, 2008. It did better before the crisis than it did during the crisis because the real crisis that worries the gold buyer is a currency crisis. People aren’t buying gold because they’re worried about political uncertainty. They’re buying gold because the politicians are printing too much money. Well, the cheap money policies that were in place prior to the 2008 financial crisis are still here, only, it’s worse. It’s more excessive. The monetary policy is easier. Rates are lower. Central banks are printing money even faster. So, instead of there being no more reasons to buy gold, the reasons have never been better. There have never been more reasons to buy gold, it’s just that Wall Street doesn’t understand this yet. But they will.
“Dow 14,000, GDP, Jobs, Fed, inflation, treasuries, & gold.”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers Warns ‘Horrible Headache’ Coming For U.S. Between End Of 2013 And 2015
Investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers recently appeared on the Yahoo! Finance show The Daily Ticker. Lauren Lyster interviewed the former investing partner of George Soros, who talked about a number of money-related topics in video released this morning. This included:
• Noting that gold and silver coins are “hot,” but he wouldn’t rush into them right now- “Don’t sell your gold and don’t sell your silver.”
• Predicting turmoil in currencies- “There is not a sound currency anymore.”
• Reiterating his belief in agriculture as a good investment- “I would rather own agriculture than anything.”
• Revealing he was interested in Russian rubles, Chinese renminbi
• Thinking about buying Japanese yen again
• Investing his family’s “human capital” in Asia
• Comparing America’s future to the decline of the U.K.
• Comparing China to America in the early 20th century
• Predicting China will have its share of setbacks like the U.S. did in the 19th century
• Declaring U.S. higher education a bubble
• Revealing he was “optimistic” on Russia and had invested there. Talked about how to do it.
• Revealing he had invested in North Korea. Talked about how he did that as well.
• Claiming U.S. stocks are going up because of money printing by central banks- “I mean, this is staggering what’s going on. It’s going to end so badly for all of us. We’re all going to wake up one day with a horrible headache. Probably 2014, 2015. Or the end of 2013.
Awesome exchange between Lyster and Rogers, which you can watch on the Yahoo! Finance site here and here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers: China, Myanmar, And Russia Best Prospects For Investors
I happened to stumble on an article tonight on the website of the Sofia News Agency (Bulgaria’s largest English language news provider) about well-known American investor Jim Rogers. In an interview for Gold Radio Café, the former investing partner of George Soros talked about his new book that will be out soon, Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets, and potential investment in Bulgaria. In addition, Rogers discussed what markets he thought had promise for investors. From the piece:
Myanmar, China and Russia are the markets holding the best prospects for investors, according to Rogers.
Myanmar has gone through dramatic and exciting changes, China opened up to the world 30-35 years ago and has been a great success story, while Russia has changed its attitude towards capitalism, which is why the billionaire is considering investments there too.
Rogers has been bullish on China for a while now, while only recently taking a shine to Myanmar and Russia.
Furthermore, the Singapore-based investor who correctly predicted the beginning of the current commodity bull market back in 1999 talked up gold. From the article:
Asked what he would choose if he was to create a legacy portfolio for his grandchildren, Jim Rogers pointed out precious metals put in real assets.
At the end of December, Rogers indicated that he was “sitting and watching” gold for the present time.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Source:
“Wall Street Legend Jim Rogers Mulls Investing in Bulgaria.” Sofia News Agency. 21 Jan. 2013. (http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=147060). 21 Jan 2013.
Jim Rogers: ‘I Hope We All Survive 2013’
“We’ve had very difficult times. We’re going to continue to have difficult times. You better makes sure you know what you’re doing.”
-Jim Rogers, in a December 23 Kitco News interview
Well-known investor Jim Rogers spoke to Daniela Cambone of Kitco News back on December 23 about his investment outlook for 2013. The former partner of George Soros in the Quantum Fund discussed gold and currencies, among other things.
When Cambone asked Rogers if he was buying gold now, Rogers replied:
No, I am not buying gold. I am not selling gold. I am sitting and watching it.
The Singapore-based investor added that while he does own some U.S. dollars, he owns more Swiss Francs than any other currency these days.
“Jim Rogers’ Gold Outlook for 2013”
YouTube Video
While wrapping up the interview, Jim Rogers told viewers:
I hope we all survive 2013.
That comment reminds me of something I blogged back on October 18:
Famous investor Jim Rogers appeared on the Yahoo! Finance show Breakout yesterday, and warned viewers of the following:
It’s going to get worse next year. 2013, 2014, you should be very worried and you should prepare yourself.
Yikes! I don’t think I’ve ever heard the Singapore-based investor ever mutter anything like “prepare yourself” before.
And I’ve been following him religiously for some years now.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (http://www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
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