Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers: ‘I Expect The American Economy To Be In Recession Sometime In The Next Year Or Two

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers was recently interviewed by the Nikkei Asian Review (Japan) about the global economy. Assessing its health, the former investing partner of George Soros warned on the Review’s website on March 20:

I am not optimistic about the global economy for the next couple of years. Japan is already in recession, some parts of Europe are suffering, some parts of America are suffering and that’s going to get worse, in my view, because there is nothing to make the world get better.

In America, we’ve had seven years since our last recession. That is unusual because in America, normally every four to seven years, throughout history, we have had an economic slowdown. So it’s overdue. It doesn’t have to end in seven years, but we have many excesses which have taken place in the world economy, caused by very low interest rates. And the American central bank is making many, many mistakes by having interest rates so low and by printing so much money. And then the Japanese central bank and the European Central Bank, and the British central bank, all did the same thing. So we’ve had an artificial situation based on printed money and huge amounts of debt. [The Federal Reserve’s] balance sheet was $800 billion in 2008. Now it is nearly $5 trillion. I expect the American economy to be in recession sometime in the next year or two.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Survival And Prosperity readers may remember earlier this month I quoted a March 4, 2016, Bloomberg.com piece where it was reported:

The famous investor said that there was a 100 percent probability that the U.S. economy would be in a downturn within one year

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In the short-but-insightful Nikkei Asian Review interview conducted by Hisashi Tsutsui, the Singapore-based Rogers revealed where he would invest given current circumstances, which you can read all about on the publication’s website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, March 28th, 2016 Asia, Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Europe, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Recession Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘I Expect The American Economy To Be In Recession Sometime In The Next Year Or Two

Jim Rogers Warns ‘We Are Going To Have Serious Problems In 2016 And 2017’

Last time I blogged about the well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers, I said:

It’s been interesting watching him lately attach timeframes to some of his forecasts.

I quoted a March 4, 2016, piece on the Bloomberg website where it was reported:

The famous investor said that there was a 100 percent probability that the U.S. economy would be in a downturn within one year

(Editor’s note: Blog added for emphasis)

The former investing partner of George Soros just shared another forecast- with a timeframe- in a recent interview with The Korea Times. Kim Jae-kyoung wrote on March 13:

“We are going to have serious problems in 2016 and 2017. It will be worse than 2008”

I expect markets to collapse like they did in 2008. It started in the middle of 2014 and that has been going worse and worse. I don’t know when the market will hit rock bottom but probably next year will be the worst.”

(Editor’s note: Blog added for emphasis)

Jae-kyoung added later:

Rogers said that situation is much worse now than in 2008, when the epicenter of the crisis was the U.S. But this time the crisis will be uibiquitous, he said, expecting that major economies, including the U.S., Japan and Europe, will all suffer further setbacks.

“It’s going to be the U.S. again because America is the largest debtor nation,” he said, “but this time, Portugal is going to go bankrupt, Italy is going to go bankrupt and the U.K. is going to collapse. It’s going to happen in a lot of places.”

(Editor’s note: Blog added for emphasis)

In the insightful Korea Times interview, the Singapore-based Rogers went on to share investment advice with readers, which you can read all about on the newspaper’s website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Thursday, March 17th, 2016 Asia, Bankruptcy, Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Europe, Investing, Recession, Stocks Comments Off on Jim Rogers Warns ‘We Are Going To Have Serious Problems In 2016 And 2017’

Bloomberg TV: Jim Rogers Predicts U.S. Economy In Recession Within 1 Year

As someone who’s observed the investment activities and advice of investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers for over a decade, it’s been interesting watching him lately attach timeframes to some of his forecasts.

For example, regular readers of Survival And Prosperity were recently left with:

I see horrible problems in the world’s financial markets for a couple of years…

And:

There is going to be a big crisis coming up in the next year or two…

Now, the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund has been quoted by Bloomberg Television as saying the U.S. economy will be in a recession within the next year. Luke Kawa reported on the Bloomberg website last Friday:

Rogers Holdings Chairman Jim Rogers is certain that the U.S. economy will be in recession in the next 12 months.

During an interview on Bloomberg TV with Guy Johnson, the famous investor said that there was a 100 percent probability that the U.S. economy would be in a downturn within one year.

“It’s been seven years, eight years since we had the last recession in the U.S., and normally, historically we have them every four to seven years for whatever reason- at least we always have,” he said. “It doesn’t have to happen in four to seven years, but look at the debt, the debt is staggering.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“100 percent probability”

Interesting prediction. And considering the source, it kind of hard to discount.

Making a note of Rogers’ recession call on my work calendar… done.

You can read the entire article on the Bloomberg website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, March 7th, 2016 Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Recession Comments Off on Bloomberg TV: Jim Rogers Predicts U.S. Economy In Recession Within 1 Year

Jim Rogers Gone Fetal?

Back on February 24, I blogged about a three-part interview of investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers by The Sovereign Society. In the February 10 segment, Rogers informed listeners:

I stopped buying stocks anywhere in the world last August… I see horrible problems in the world’s financial markets for a couple of years, so I’m not buying anywhere, including China…

Earlier today, I spotted another interview of the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund. In his exchange with the ET Now business/financial channel (India), Rogers reiterated this pull-back in investing in anticipation of economic upheaval. Discussing India:

ET Now: Spending is something governments world over are doing. So why are you singling India out?

ROGERS: No. Listen, I’ve sold a lot of countries. I sold Japan. At the same time nobody called me up and said, “Why did you sell Japan?” No, no- I’ve sold several countries last summer. I am not singling out India. I have investments in very few countries because of the debt. And there is going to be a big crisis coming up in the next year or two. But it’s not just India…


“ET NOW Exclusive : Jim Rogers”
YouTube Video

“And there is going to be a big crisis coming up in the next year or two.”

Rogers is one of the shrewdest investors in the world. I’m guessing he’s keeping his powder dry for when the “blood is running in the streets.”

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, March 1st, 2016 Asia, Crash Prophets, Debt Crisis, Investing, Stocks Comments Off on Jim Rogers Gone Fetal?

From My Other Blog: Jim Rogers, Martin Armstrong, And Jeff Thomas

The last couple of days I’ve published a few posts on a different blog of mine- Offshore Safe Deposit Boxes– which might interest Survival And Prosperity readers. They include:

“Jim Rogers: ‘All Investors, Wherever They Are, Should Have Some Assets Outside Of Their Own Country’”

In that same Sovereign Society interview of investor Jim Rogers I blogged about Wednesday, the former investing partner of George Soros emphasized the importance of geographical diversification with one’s assets

“Martin Armstrong Predicts U.S. Government Will Confiscate Gold If Traveling With It Domestically, Overseas”

Economist Martin Armstrong predicts that while an “official” gold confiscation program might not be announced/implemented, the federal government will slap restrictions on traveling at home/abroad with gold and may go so far as to make precious metals transactions in the U.S. illegal, opening the door to confiscation

“Related Reading: ‘Are Governments Running Out Of Candy?’ By Jeff Thomas”

Jeff Thomas, feature writer for Casey Research’s International Man and the Cayman Islands private vault Strategic Wealth Preservation, discussed how government “freebies” are drying up, the historical pattern of economic collapse when politicians are unable to raise more taxes/ borrow more money, and the three groups of victims in the general public from the crash – including the “Preparers”

Enjoy…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Friday, February 26th, 2016 Borrowing, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Fiscal Policy, Government, Investing, Legal, Precious Metals, Preparedness, Taxes Comments Off on From My Other Blog: Jim Rogers, Martin Armstrong, And Jeff Thomas

Jim Rogers Interviewed By The Sovereign Society

Earlier this week I finally got the chance to listen to a three-part interview of investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers by The Sovereign Society’s editorial director JL Yastine. Released on The Sovereign Investor Daily website over three days beginning February 9, 2016, their exchange provided significant information about Rogers’ investing views, activity, and strategy going forward. From the Singapore-based investor each day:

February 9

• Revealed he shorted “top” tech stocks
• Discussed outlook for U.S economy
• Implicated Federal Reserve and Washington, D.C., as “culprit” for financial woes, saying:

If you have to have a single culprit- and it’s rare that you can have a single culprit in something like this- it would be the Federal Reserve and Washington, D.C. The Federal Reserve has printed staggering amounts of money. This had interest rates at historic lows. They have never been this low. At the same time, Congress, of course, has spent billions of dollars we don’t have. So with the Fed and Congress running up staggering debts and printing lots of money, we’ve had an artificial situation for eight years now, and we’re going to pay the price. And we’re starting to pay the price now.

• Going forward, the former trading partner of George Soros predicted:

Somewhere along the line, the market will be down 13 percent, 23 percent, you pick the number, the Fed will get a huge number of phone calls saying you’ve got to save the world. These are academics and bureaucrats as you know working for the Federal Reserve- they don’t know what they’re doing. And so they will panic, and they will do something to save us all, whether it’s lower interest rates again, or print more money, or buy more- who knows what they’ll do? They’re going to do something to try to save the markets when the problems come. The markets will rally, the markets will have a nice rally, but that rally will not last, because we’re getting past to the point of no return. There’s not much we can do now given the massive amounts of money that’s been printed.

February 10

• Talked about the U.S. dollar, noting:

I own the dollar. I expect it to go higher. It could well turn into a bubble before it’s over, depending how bad the financial turmoil is.

• Talked about crude oil, revealing:

I don’t see enough panic yet in oil for me to step in. It does seem to be making a complicated bottom.

• Discussed China, saying:

I stopped buying stocks anywhere in the world last August… I see horrible problems in the world’s financial markets for a couple of years, so I’ not buying anywhere, including China…

I do own renminbi… and if it goes down a lot, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more.

• Shared thoughts on gold, insisting:

I’m not a mystic about gold. In my view gold is nothing more than another asset that can be bought and sold. I do own it. I hedged some of my gold about the time I spoke to you. But if it goes down more, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more.

February 11

• Shared an “endgame” forecast:

It’s not going to end very nicely at all… It’s going to end very badly, for all of us. We had our financial problem in 2008 because of debt. Well, the debt now is much, much, much higher than then. The Federal Reserve alone balance sheet is up 600 percent in eight years. So the debt is skyrocketing everywhere. It’s going to end badly. The next financial crisis we have, or semi-crisis, is going to be worse than 2008 in most parts of the world.

• Shared expectations of how the markets will play out, saying:

What I expect to happen is, the U.S. dollar is going to go higher. Gold will go lower. Markets will go lower. At some point, like I said, the dollar will get overpriced, maybe even a bubble. At which point I hope I’m smart enough to sell my U.S. dollars. Gold often goes down when the dollar goes up. So the dollar will be up, gold will be down, and I will say “A-ha! I’m going to sell my dollars now and buy gold.” But it might be something else. It might be renminbi. If the renmibi’s down, and the renminbi’s convertible by then, then maybe I will buy renminbi when I get out of my dollars. Gold, in my view, will probably wind up in a bubble before this is over. But in the meantime I’m waiting to buy it lower, because the bubble is maybe a few years away.

• Gave advice for protecting wealth in “the coming hard times”

On that last bullet point, since I don’t want to steal The Sovereign Society’s thunder, head on over to the corresponding links to watch the entire interview. Great stuff.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rogers: ‘We Are Going To Have A Big Problem Next Time We Have A Setback And It Is Coming In 2016-2017’

Famous investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers just spoke to Bloomberg TV India’s Sunanda Jayaseelan, Piyush Jain, and Pronoy Nath Banerji about the worldwide financial turmoil going on at the beginning of 2016. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about a number of topics, but his warnings about the global economy in the next few years and his discussion of what he is/isn’t investing in these days was particularly interesting. Rogers said (per a transcript published on the Bloomberg TV India website earlier today):

This year and next year we are going to see serious economic problems worldwide and when there is a problem demand goes down…

I am not buying gold yet. I am not buying anything—stocks, commodities or bonds for that matter. I am sitting and watching. I am short on US and long on China. I would expect more problems, more turmoil and that would present opportunities eventually…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

On U.S. stocks, the Singapore-based investor predicted:

The world is going to have problems. In America that used to be the main market, it has not got a serious stock market set back in the past 6-7 years. That is very unusual. Normally market corrects 15-20 per cent every year or so. We haven’t had corrections like that because of the artificial money printing by the central bank. We are going to have a big problem next time we have a setback and it is coming in 2016-2017

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Two weeks ago, I blogged about a recent exchange between the chairman of Rogers Holdings and James West, publisher/editor of the Midas Letter. Rogers revealed in that interview he was short the U.S. stock market, “the nine or ten stocks that never go down – Amazon, Netflix… those things.” He was also short junk bonds, but owns “a lot of U.S. dollars.”

Like I said, Rogers talked about a number of subjects with that Bloomberg TV India crew, including China, India, commodities, and currencies. You can read the entire transcript of their exchange on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, February 8th, 2016 Asia, Bonds, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Investing, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘We Are Going To Have A Big Problem Next Time We Have A Setback And It Is Coming In 2016-2017’

Jim Rogers Predicts Gold ‘Ending In A Bubble Maybe Three Or Four Years From Now’

I read an insightful article the other day about well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers on Agrimoney.com. In it, Mike Verdin shared what Rogers, the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund, thinks about certain investments opportunities. The Singapore-based investor is “pessimistic about stocks for the next couple of years,” and is still bullish on agriculture. But it’s what Rogers, who predicted the commodities rally that began in 1999, said about gold and crude oil that I found most interesting. From the January 28, 2016, piece:

He foresees a rally in gold “ending in a bubble maybe three or four years from now”.

And oil prices around $30 a barrel are unsustainable.

“People cannot explore, drill at $30 a barrel” and expect a satisfactory return on their investment.

And with old wells being pulled offline, “there is not going to be any oil” unless higher values make new sources viable.

He compares current weakness in commodity prices to that in shares during their late-20th century bull run.

“In the 1980s and 1990s, stocks went down 40-80%, and people said ‘that’s the end of that’.

“But it was not the end. We have seen before in other asset classes” the reversal in commodities he believes will prove short-term…

Good stuff, which you can read all about on Agrimoney.com here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, February 1st, 2016 Agriculture, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Energy, Investing, Natural Resources, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on Jim Rogers Predicts Gold ‘Ending In A Bubble Maybe Three Or Four Years From Now’

Confidence In U.S. Government Plummeting?

Last night in a discussion about gold, I brought up Martin Armstrong, economist at Armstrong Economics (and former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd.) and the creator of the Economic Confidence Model, and something he said about the yellow metal two weeks ago. From his January 14 blog post:

I have stated this many times, so here it goes again: Gold rises when people lose confidence in government.

Survival And Prosperity readers are probably familiar with the myriad of poll/survey results showing Main Street has been fed up with the nation’s policymakers for some time now. But this morning, I’m going to examine if that confidence may be eroding more significantly than in recent times. I do this because:

1. I just came across some disturbing survey results in my research this week which suggests confidence in the U.S. government may be plummeting

2. If this confidence is almost to the point of being “shot,” then perhaps gold is getting closer to another sustained run-up in price

Aimee Picchi reported on the CBS News website Tuesday under the headline “Americans hate the U.S. government more than ever”:

A handful of industries are those “love to hate” types of businesses, such as cable-television companies and Internet service providers.

The federal government has joined the ranks of the bottom-of-the-barrel industries, according to a new survey from the American Customer Satisfaction Index. Americans’ satisfaction level in dealing with federal agencies –everything from Treasury to Homeland Security — has fallen for a third consecutive year, reaching an eight-year low.

The declines represent some backsliding for the U.S. government, given that satisfaction saw some improvement in 2011 and 2012, which may have been the result of spending in the wake of the recession. While the comparison with private enterprise isn’t apples to apples given the nature of government services, the findings have some implications for bureaucrats.

“Satisfaction is linked to broader goals in the political system that it wants to maximize, like confidence and trust,” said Forrest Morgeson, director of research at the ACSI. “It’s much more difficult to govern if the entire population dislikes you.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Picchi noted more than 2,000 people took part in that survey.

It’s not just confidence in government that may be in real trouble these days. Yale economist Robert Shiller, who correctly-called the dot-com and housing busts of the last decade, was interviewed last week in Davos, Switzerland, by Tom Keene of the Bloomberg TV show Bloomberg Surveillance. From their exchange:

KEENE: What is the state of our confidence now in our economics and business system?
SHILLER: It’s kind of obvious that it’s weakening.
KEENE: It’s fragile.
SHILLER: It’s fragile, and things that ought to be good news like lower oil prices are disruptive in the short run. But people are over-focused on them in valuing long-term assets like corporate stocks. So I think that the markets are driven by these perceived important facts. I think China is not as important to the U.S. economy as it appears to be. And one thing that news media people have to do- I assume you do this- is resist some of this over-hyping…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Yale’s Shiller: Markets Over-focused on China, Oil”
Bloomberg Video

Interesting comment about China. I pointed out earlier this week that Shiller’s fellow “crash prophets” Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff think the Chinese are being made scapegoats by the U.S. for Wall Street’s dismal performance this year.

And how about Dr. Shiller getting in a shot at the news media for their “over-hyping”? Serves them right considering the grief they gave the now Nobel Prize winner for having the “audacity” to point out the U.S. housing bubble last decade.

But getting back to the task at hand. Confidence in both government and the economy appears to have taken a hit lately. And a resurgent gold bull market looks promising if Martin Armstrong is correct in his assertions.

Stay tuned…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Picchi, Aimee. “Americans hate the U.S. government more than ever.” CBS News. 26 Jan. 2016. (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-hate-the-u-s-government-more-than-ever/). 28 Jan. 2016.

Robert Shiller’s recently-revised (January 2015) third edition of Irrational Exuberance

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Thursday, January 28th, 2016 Asia, Bubbles, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Government, Housing, Investing, Main Street, Mainstream Media, Precious Metals, Wall Street Comments Off on Confidence In U.S. Government Plummeting?

Jim Rogers, Martin Armstrong Predict Strengthening U.S. Dollar To Push Gold Price Down Before Take-Off

Still on the topic of gold tonight, I want to talk about two well-known individuals in the investing community- Jim Rogers and Martin Armstrong- and their thoughts about the yellow metal.

In what might be somewhat of a disappointment to the “goldbugs,” neither is predicting the price of gold will take off from here.

Let’s go back to that Midas Letter interview of Rogers that I blogged about the other day. Rogers, who predicted the commodities rally that began in 1999, was asked if he thought the bottom for gold had been reached, or was he still looking for the price to come down further to around $900. The former partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund replied:

Look guys… I want to remind you that I’m the single worst market timer in the world. I’m the single worst short term trader in the world. So asking me is a waste of all of our time. I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom. I’m still looking for a bottom under 1,000. Who knows if it will get there, but if it does, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot of gold. In the end, gold’s going to turn into a bubble, and it’s going to go much, much higher. I just don’t know when. But I’m not buying gold yet

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Okay- so long-time Survival And Prosperity readers have heard Rogers say that before. On a number of occasions. But it’s what he said next in the interview I found very interesting. Rogers predicted:

What I do expect to happen, is that as the turmoil spreads, I expect more people will flee toward the U.S. dollar – I own a lot of U.S. dollars – but because of that, people think it’s a safe haven. It is not a safe haven, as you well know, but people think it is. So the dollar will go higher, it will get overpriced, it may turn into a bubble. Gold will go down in a time like that, because often – not always, but often – gold goes down when the dollar goes up. So I will sell my dollars at that point, and put it into something else – perhaps gold. If that scenario works – the dollar gets overpriced, gold gets beaten down because of the panic, then I hope I’m smart enough to buy gold or renminbi or whatever it happens to be at that point

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’ve heard this scenario before, one where the price of gold falls more due to a strengthening U.S. dollar stemming from a global flight to “perceived” safety. Do any readers follow Martin Armstrong, economist at Armstrong Economics (and former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd.) and the creator of the Economic Confidence Model? While the jury’s still out on him (for me), I do read his blog almost daily. And if my memory serves me correctly, what Jim Rogers just said sounds a lot like what Armstrong has also been saying in recent times. Back on November 20 he blogged:

Gold is being overpowered by the rise in the dollar…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

He added just two weeks ago:

I have stated this many times, so here it goes again: Gold rises when people lose confidence in government. It has nothing to do with inflation. So, you start to worry about government survival or who’s going to win a war when gold rises — not before.

Short term, we still have the risk of gold going under $1,000 per ounce. It’s going to flip when everything is right — not before. It will probably max out at $5,000 per ounce or perhaps $6,000 at best. That we will not know until we have the low and the projection angle from that low…

Gold will respond ONLY when the majority sees the crisis unfolding. Just because you may understand it and see the logical outcome does not mean that the bulk of the population will…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Very interesting. Which brings up the question:

Have Americans lost confidence in government?

More tomorrow…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Sources:

Armstrong, Martin. “Gold, Geopolitics, & the Dollar.” Armstrong Economics Blog. 20 Nov. 2015. (http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39465). 27 Jan. 2016.

Armstrong, Martin. “Gold- No Time Left For Conspiracy Theory.” Armstrong Economics Blog. 14 Jan. 2016. (http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40680). 27 Jan. 2016.

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RSS Chris Hill’s Other Blog: Offshore Safe Deposit Boxes

  • Degussa Singapore Launches YouTube Channel
    It’s been some time since I last blogged about the first Asian branch of Degussa, a leading international player in the precious metals world. Degussa Singapore opened its doors at 22 Orchard Road in October 2015 and operates a safe deposit box service in addition to selling bullion bars, coins, and precious gifts. Yesterday I […]
  • Nomad Capitalist’s 5 Best Countries For Offshore Gold Storage
    Research related to Monday’s post about precious metals storage in Singapore led me to a piece published last fall by Andrew Henderson over on the Nomad Capitalist website. I’ve mentioned Andrew and his company before on the blog, but for those readers not familiar with them, Henderson is the founder and managing partner of Hong […]
  • Singapore’s ‘Strong’ Precious Metals Storage Infrastructure Anchors Trading Hub Push
    It’s no secret that Singapore has become a global leader in the storage and safekeeping of private wealth. In fact, the last mention of the Southeast Asian city-state on this blog concerned a December 12, 2016, article on the The Business Times (Singapore) website which noted privately-owned precious metals from around the world are finding […]
  • List Of Offshore Private Vaults Updated
    The list of private, non-bank vaults outside the United States (offering safe deposit boxes/lockers at a minimum) located on this blog’s sister site- Offshore Private Vaults- was recently updated. Safe deposit facilities now open for business have been added under the following countries: -Hong Kong (Royal England Safe Deposit Box Ltd.) -Thailand (Magna Carta Law […]
  • Next Degussa Numis Day To Take Place May 4, 5
    Degussa, a leading international player in the precious metals world which also offers safe deposit boxes (for customers) at branches in Germany, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland, has just posted information about their next Numis Day (first blogged about here) at their Geneva and Zurich showrooms. From their website: The Next Numis Day We appreciate and […]