Kazakhstan

Jim Rogers: Signs Of Next Economic Crisis ‘Already Happening’

The next two days I’ll be focusing on two “crash prophets” who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis and who see more carnage on the way. First up is the widely-followed investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers, who appeared on the RT TV show SophieCo earlier today. From his exchange with host Sophie Shevardnadze (RT transcript):

SHEVARDNADZE: You’ve been talking about this impending recession for a while now, ready to strike the U.S., for instance, but, you know, we see American economy picking up, the unemployment rate is going down, so- why does it keep postponing itself?
ROGERS: Wait, wait. First of all, you are listening to government figures. You remember the Soviet Union, the government had a lot of numbers, they were very good. The U.S. now puts out a lot of figures that are not legitimate, accurate figures. Look at unemployment, what do they do? For instance, they just stopped counting many people, said they’re not looking for a job anymore – so the numbers are artificial in the U.S. Yes, some parts of the U.S. economy are doing very well. If you’re on Wall St. or if you’re in finance, you’re doing fine, because the government has been printing a lot of money and a lot of debt has been put out. But you go to Texas, go to the MidWest- they’re not doing well at all. Most of the country is not doing well.
SHEVARDNADZE: Alright, but give me something concrete- when do we have to expect this crisis to hit and what’s going to cause that meltdown?
ROGERS: Sophie, for the last 18 months in the U.S., most stocks have been going down. The average is a fraud, because of the few big companies that make the average go up and that’s because the government, the Fed Reserve, Central Bank is printing a lot of money. Stocks are going down in the U.S., most stock are down. So, the signs are already there. Now, unfortunately, they’re not visible, they don’t make headlines, so it’s already happening. Parts of the country are in recession, stock market, most stocks are going down – it’s already happening

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Back on March 28, I noted Rogers had warned on the Nikkei Asian Review (Japan) website eight days earlier:

I expect the American economy to be in recession sometime in the next year or two…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

And earlier that month I quoted a March 4, 2016, Bloomberg.com piece where it was reported:

The famous investor said that there was a 100 percent probability that the U.S. economy would be in a downturn within one year

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Shevarnadze did a good job extracting some investment nuggets from the former investing partner of George Soros. Rogers still thinks there will be a better chance to buy gold “sometime in the next year or two,” and added later in the discussion:

If the dollar goes up, gold may go down. But, if it goes down, I hope to buy a lot more gold, because eventually gold is going to go through the roof. As this turmoil increases and people lose more and more confidence in governments, more and more confidence in paper money, they’re going to look for something, and gold and silver will be a couple of those places. If you’re looking for something right now- agriculture

I have sold short the U.S. stocks and I have sold junk bonds, low-grade bonds, in the U.S., I own shares in China, I have shares in Russia, I bought Russian government bonds, several days ago. These are places that I am looking at, I am looking at Kazakhstan as a place to invest, Iran I’m looking at, Nigeria I am looking at

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Kazakhstan and Nigeria are two markets not often mentioned by Rogers. A terrific interview, which you can read in its entirety over on the RT website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Marc Faber Shares ‘My Investment Strategy During This Time’

“Doctor Doom” Marc Faber recently spoke to Nophakhun Limsamarnphun over at The Nation (Thailand) about investing. The Swiss-born investment advisor and fund manager shed a good deal of light on his strategy, telling readers on September 14:

My investment strategy during this time is that you have to diversify and minimise your risks from economic, political, geopolitical and other factors. Your portfolio should include properties, stocks and equities, corporate bonds, gold and silver, plus cash. It should be 25 per cent of each, or 125 per cent – just to mimic the US accounting standard where things now do not add up.

What a character.

While a good deal of their discussion focused on Thai investments, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report shared some valuable nuggets as it concerned other areas. From the piece:

On gold and silver, I think people should have 20 per cent of their money in physical gold, not gold papers. I would put the gold bars into deposit boxes at banks. Don’t speculate but buy regularly and keep them safe. We live in a volatile period. Gold is not like other commodities, it’s the only honest currency when paper currencies are not.

On corporate bonds, I like issues from Russia, Kazakhstan and India with yields of 5-6 per cent, but they are not 100 per cent safe unless they are triple-A. Corporate bonds have an equity character. They don’t move much when stock markets crash. When things go bad, government bonds on the other hand tend to go up in value because of flight to safe havens.

In terms of cash and paper currencies, I like Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollars, while the Thai baht is just OK.

As for equities? Dr. Faber talked about Thai stocks. However, I blogged back on September 9 about his appearance on CNBC Asia’s Cash Flow that morning and how he told viewers:

I don’t think that stocks are the greatest bargain anymore.

Great job by Limsamarnphun for getting Doctor Doom to divulge this information.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Limsamarnphun, Nophakhun “Investment guru favours diversity, physical gold amid US-fuelled volatility.” The Nation. 14 Sep. 2013. (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Investment-guru-favours-diversity-physical-gold-am-30214804.html). 17 Sep. 2013.

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Central Banks Continue To Stockpile Gold

Despite the price of gold getting pummeled recently, a number of the world’s central banks continue to acquire the precious metal. Sungwoo Park reported on the Bloomberg website yesterday:

The Bank of Korea added 20 metric tons in February, raising its gold reserves by 24 percent to 104.4 tons, it said in a statement today. Holdings rose about $1.03 billion by value to $4.79 billion at the end of last month, equivalent to 1.5 percent of total foreign exchange holdings, according to the statement. Prices advanced.

Russia and Kazakhstan expanded bullion reserves for a fourth straight month in January.

On February 11, I blogged that Russia is now the world’s biggest gold buyer, adding 570 metric tons of the precious metal to their holdings over the past decade.

Glenys Sim wrote on Bloomberg.com back on February 25:

Russian holdings climbed 12.2 metric tons to 970 tons last month after gaining 8.5 percent over 2012, according to International Monetary Fund data. Kazakhstan’s hoard grew 1.5 tons to 116.8 tons, following last year’s 41 percent expansion, data on the IMF website showed…

Central banks will again be strong buyers this year after they boosted purchases 17 percent to 534.6 tons last year, the most since 1964, according to the London-based World Gold Council.

The gold haters are out in full force these days. Yet, central banks keep stockpiling the yellow metal. Hmm.

Diversification? Or “something wicked this way comes?”

And there’s no shortage of stories in the American media of how poorly gold is doing. Even though it’s setting record highs in other countries. Brett Arends wrote on the MarketWatch website yesterday:

You won’t hear about it in the usual places. Everywhere you turn these days, all you hear is that gold is down, it’s finished, it’s heading for something called a “death cross,” which sounds terrifying. But away from the headlines, gold just rocketed to a new, all-time high.

In places like Argentina, Brazil, Iceland, India, and Japan.

Not bad for a “barbarous relic,” huh?

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Park, Sungwoo. “Korea Joins Russia, Kazakhstan in Boosting Gold Holdings.” Bloomberg. 6 Mar. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/bank-of-korea-boosts-gold-reserves-as-central-banks-buy.html). 6 Mar. 2013.

Sim, Glenys. “Russia, Kazakhstan Increase Bullion Reserves for Fourth Month.” Bloomberg. 25 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-25/russia-kazakhstan-expand-gold-reserves-for-fourth-month-1-.html). 6 Mar. 2013.

Arends, Brett. “The secret bull market in gold.” MarketWatch. 6 Mar. 2013. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-secret-bull-market-in-gold-2013-03-06). 6 Mar. 2013.

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

IMF Sees Central Banks Boosting Gold Reserves As It Predicts Weaker Global Growth

Central banks around the world are still adding to their gold reserves. Francesca Freeman wrote on the MarketWatch website this afternoon:

The central banks of Turkey, Russia, Korea and Kazakhstan boosted their gold reserves in July, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.

According to IMF data, Turkey increased its holdings by 44.7 metric tons to 288.9 tons, Russia increased its holdings by 18.6 metric tons to 936.6 tons, Korea increased its holdings by 15.5 metric tons to 70 tons, and Kazakhstan increased its holdings by 1.4 metric tons to 103 tons.

And yesterday, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, discussed the international organization’s outlook for the global economy. Leslie Wroughton wrote on the Reuters website this morning:

The International Monetary Fund is set to cut its forecast for global growth next month with uncertainty over whether European policymakers will keep promises to address the euro zone crisis weighing on confidence, the head of the IMF said on Monday.

“We continue to project a gradual recovery, but global growth will likely be a bit weaker than we had anticipated even in July, and our forecast has trended downward over the last 12 months,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.

In July, the IMF cut its global growth projection for 2013 to 3.9 percent but left its 2012 forecast at 3.5 percent.

Lagarde said the euro zone debt crisis posed the greatest risk to the world economy but that the U.S. fiscal cliff also presented a “serious threat.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Lagard also talked about countries other than the United States and from within the Eurozone. Wroughton added:

Lagarde said emerging market economies were now clearly slowing and there was “great concern” in poor countries about rising food prices and volatile commodity prices. There were also signs of growing frustrations with political transitions in the Middle East, she added.

Would that be the so-called “Arab Fall” she was talking about?

Sources:

Freeman, Francesca. “IMF: Turkey, Russia, Korea boosted gold reserves.” MarketWatch. 25 Sep. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-turkey-russia-korea-boosted-gold-reserves-2012-09-25?link=MW_latest_news). 25 Sep. 2012.

Wroughton, Leslie. “UPDATE 1-IMF chief sees shaky confidence denting global growth.” Reuters. 25 Sep. 2012. (http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/imf-lagarde-idINL1E8KOBWQ20120924). 25 Sep. 2012.

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Which Central Banks Are Buying Gold?

If there’s one question gold “bears” have a hard time answering, it’s this:

If gold is such a “barbarous relic,” how come central banks are acquiring it these days?

There’s doesn’t seem to be much doubt this accumulation is taking place. In fact, Izabella Kaminska wrote on the FT Alphaville blog on the Financial Times (UK) website just today:

What’s more, the case for “gold” is increasingly being linked to future expectations that central banks and public authorities will continue to be large net buyers and borrowers of gold, rather than sellers.

The point is made nicely in this note from Moody’s Analytics on Tuesday:

One strong positive for gold demand is purchases for the reserves of governments and supranational organizations. After many years of shedding reserves, net buying by the official sector reached 456 t last year. The desire to diversify from major currencies may continue to drive such demand…

So, which central banks in particular are acquiring the precious metal?

I recently received this month’s edition of Peter Schiff’s Gold Report (ROTW back on July 6, 2011) and the President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital provided some insight. From the July issue of this free newsletter:

The return to gold is unmistakably the product of a strategic, not merely a tactical, shift in global central banking policy. Central banks in the developed world have now altogether stopped selling bullion. This was foreshadowed by their behavior over the past decade, when they sold even less gold than they were permitted to under the anti-dumping Central Bank Gold Agreements. Clearly the concern about dumping gold was out of step with the trend. But more importantly, central banks in the emerging markets have been buying gold by the truckload.

Since the financial crisis of ’08, nations as diverse as Mexico, the Philippines, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India have led the way back to gold as a primary reserve asset. Russia alone has added an impressive 400 tonnes of bullion to its reserves, most of it coming from domestic purchases. Mexico has added over 120 tonnes, including 78 tonnes from one mega-purchase in March 2011. The Philippines have bought over 60 tonnes, with 32 tonnes coming in as recently as March 2012. Thailand has added approximately 60 tonnes, and Kazakhstan just shy of 30 tonnes. Turkey amended its regulatory policy late last year to allow commercial banks to count gold towards their reserve requirements, adding over 120 tonnes to its official reserves. And bullion imports into mainland China through Hong Kong have been reaching all-time highs.

Finally, loyal US allies Saudi Arabia and India, in what is sure to leave particularly bitter taste in Washington’s mouth, have been adding gold to their reserves by the hundreds of tonnes.

In short, the governments of emerging markets recognize that the global monetary order is on the verge of a reset. These emerging markets are the economic engines of the 21st century, and they’re determined not to be undermined by Western fiat paper.

South Korea might also be adding to their gold reserves soon. I blogged on June 21:

The Irish precious metals firm also highlighted the possibility of South Korea buying more gold in 2012:

The Bank of Korea has said that its current gold holdings are too small and that the BOK may buy more gold this year in order to diversify its foreign exchange portfolio which is exposed to the dollar.

Eugene Kim, chief investment officer at the central bank’s foreign-exchange reserve management group, said its gold holdings are “too small” given the size of its forex reserves, which stood at a record-high of $310.87 billion at the end of May, and that the BOK might buy more bullion this year.

Gold. A “barbarous relic” for sure.

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Kaminska, Izabella. “Propping up the gold price.” FT Alphaville. 10 July 2012. (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/10/1077461/propping-up-the-gold-price/). 10 July 2012.

Schiff, Peter. “The Return Of The Gold Standard.” Peter Schiff’s Gold Report. July 2012.

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Survival And Prosperity
Est. 2010, Chicagoland, USA
Christopher E. Hill, Editor

Successor to Boom2Bust.com
"The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street"
(Memorial Day Weekend 2007-2010)

PLEASE RATE this blog HERE,
and PLEASE VOTE for the blog below:



Thank you very, very much!
Advertising Disclosure here.
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Emergency Foods Review coming soon.
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Legacy Food Storage Review coming soon
ANY CHARACTER HERE
MyPatriotSupply.com reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Buy Gold And Silver Coins BGASC reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
BulletSafe reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
BullionVault BullionVault.com reviewed HERE
This project dedicated to St. Jude
Patron Saint of Desperate Situations

Categories

 

Archives