Midas Letter

Jim Rogers Discusses His Investments Post-Brexit

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers recently spoke to James West, publisher/editor of the Midas Letter (“Emerging Public Company Research and Global Economic Commentary”) in the wake of the historic “Brexit” vote. During their exchange, the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about his current investment holdings and warned about more financial volatility down the road. Rogers confided:

I’m short stocks in the United States, I’m long the United States dollar, I’m long agricultural commodities, I own some shares in China and a few other places. But basically I’m short the U.S. stock market and long the U.S. currency…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

When asked about the volatility of financial markets, the Singapore-based investor warned:

You think 2016 is bad. Wait ‘til 2017. It’s going to be worse

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The last time I blogged about Rogers, he told listeners of Jay Taylor (editor of J Taylor’s Gold & Technology Stocks newsletter) and his radio show Turning Hard Times into Good Times:

I urge people to get knowledgeable from listening to you and other people like you, because the world is facing some very complicated and difficult times. Once you become knowledgeable, you’re going to get very worried, which you should, and then you might get prepared, because not all of us are going to survive what’s coming in the next few years. I hope I survive, I hope everybody listening to this survives. But it’s going to be a very, very damaging and difficult time. So be worried. Be prepared

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

You can listen to/read the entire conversation between Jim Rogers and James West here over on the Financial Post (Canada) website.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rogers: ‘We Are Going To Have A Big Problem Next Time We Have A Setback And It Is Coming In 2016-2017’

Famous investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers just spoke to Bloomberg TV India’s Sunanda Jayaseelan, Piyush Jain, and Pronoy Nath Banerji about the worldwide financial turmoil going on at the beginning of 2016. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about a number of topics, but his warnings about the global economy in the next few years and his discussion of what he is/isn’t investing in these days was particularly interesting. Rogers said (per a transcript published on the Bloomberg TV India website earlier today):

This year and next year we are going to see serious economic problems worldwide and when there is a problem demand goes down…

I am not buying gold yet. I am not buying anything—stocks, commodities or bonds for that matter. I am sitting and watching. I am short on US and long on China. I would expect more problems, more turmoil and that would present opportunities eventually…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

On U.S. stocks, the Singapore-based investor predicted:

The world is going to have problems. In America that used to be the main market, it has not got a serious stock market set back in the past 6-7 years. That is very unusual. Normally market corrects 15-20 per cent every year or so. We haven’t had corrections like that because of the artificial money printing by the central bank. We are going to have a big problem next time we have a setback and it is coming in 2016-2017

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Two weeks ago, I blogged about a recent exchange between the chairman of Rogers Holdings and James West, publisher/editor of the Midas Letter. Rogers revealed in that interview he was short the U.S. stock market, “the nine or ten stocks that never go down – Amazon, Netflix… those things.” He was also short junk bonds, but owns “a lot of U.S. dollars.”

Like I said, Rogers talked about a number of subjects with that Bloomberg TV India crew, including China, India, commodities, and currencies. You can read the entire transcript of their exchange on their website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Jim Rogers, Martin Armstrong Predict Strengthening U.S. Dollar To Push Gold Price Down Before Take-Off

Still on the topic of gold tonight, I want to talk about two well-known individuals in the investing community- Jim Rogers and Martin Armstrong- and their thoughts about the yellow metal.

In what might be somewhat of a disappointment to the “goldbugs,” neither is predicting the price of gold will take off from here.

Let’s go back to that Midas Letter interview of Rogers that I blogged about the other day. Rogers, who predicted the commodities rally that began in 1999, was asked if he thought the bottom for gold had been reached, or was he still looking for the price to come down further to around $900. The former partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund replied:

Look guys… I want to remind you that I’m the single worst market timer in the world. I’m the single worst short term trader in the world. So asking me is a waste of all of our time. I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom. I’m still looking for a bottom under 1,000. Who knows if it will get there, but if it does, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot of gold. In the end, gold’s going to turn into a bubble, and it’s going to go much, much higher. I just don’t know when. But I’m not buying gold yet

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Okay- so long-time Survival And Prosperity readers have heard Rogers say that before. On a number of occasions. But it’s what he said next in the interview I found very interesting. Rogers predicted:

What I do expect to happen, is that as the turmoil spreads, I expect more people will flee toward the U.S. dollar – I own a lot of U.S. dollars – but because of that, people think it’s a safe haven. It is not a safe haven, as you well know, but people think it is. So the dollar will go higher, it will get overpriced, it may turn into a bubble. Gold will go down in a time like that, because often – not always, but often – gold goes down when the dollar goes up. So I will sell my dollars at that point, and put it into something else – perhaps gold. If that scenario works – the dollar gets overpriced, gold gets beaten down because of the panic, then I hope I’m smart enough to buy gold or renminbi or whatever it happens to be at that point

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’ve heard this scenario before, one where the price of gold falls more due to a strengthening U.S. dollar stemming from a global flight to “perceived” safety. Do any readers follow Martin Armstrong, economist at Armstrong Economics (and former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd.) and the creator of the Economic Confidence Model? While the jury’s still out on him (for me), I do read his blog almost daily. And if my memory serves me correctly, what Jim Rogers just said sounds a lot like what Armstrong has also been saying in recent times. Back on November 20 he blogged:

Gold is being overpowered by the rise in the dollar…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

He added just two weeks ago:

I have stated this many times, so here it goes again: Gold rises when people lose confidence in government. It has nothing to do with inflation. So, you start to worry about government survival or who’s going to win a war when gold rises — not before.

Short term, we still have the risk of gold going under $1,000 per ounce. It’s going to flip when everything is right — not before. It will probably max out at $5,000 per ounce or perhaps $6,000 at best. That we will not know until we have the low and the projection angle from that low…

Gold will respond ONLY when the majority sees the crisis unfolding. Just because you may understand it and see the logical outcome does not mean that the bulk of the population will…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Very interesting. Which brings up the question:

Have Americans lost confidence in government?

More tomorrow…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Sources:

Armstrong, Martin. “Gold, Geopolitics, & the Dollar.” Armstrong Economics Blog. 20 Nov. 2015. (http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39465). 27 Jan. 2016.

Armstrong, Martin. “Gold- No Time Left For Conspiracy Theory.” Armstrong Economics Blog. 14 Jan. 2016. (http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40680). 27 Jan. 2016.

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Jim Rogers Shares Investing Insights For 2016 And Beyond

Speaking of Singapore, once in a while I come across some terrific interviews of the “crash prophets.” This weekend I read one of well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers. James West, publisher/editor of the Midas Letter (“Emerging Public Company Research and Global Economic Commentary”), spoke to the Singapore-based investor and published the exchange on his newsletter’s website last Tuesday. They talked about everything (at least as it concerns topics I think Survival And Prosperity readers might be interested in). Rogers maintains what’s going on in the financial markets/system these days goes back to the 2008 global economic crisis:

WEST: Jim would you agree that the roughly 8 percent drop in global market indices since the beginning of 2016 is the harbinger of a continuation of the financial crisis that began in 2008?
ROGERS: Oh I know it is. There’s no doubt in my mind. China’s been able to support the world through a period of money printing and low interest rates, and that’s now come to an end cause China’s showing signs of slowing down. People say China’s to blame for all this mess, but China’s just a victim like the rest of us. We’re all victims James, we’re all victims, including American citizens. Our central bank has been a disaster…

Regarding investment advice for 2016, the chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc., shared the following:

WEST: So where should an investor be, going into a 2016 that is so volatile and so fraught with the risk of another major market correction?
ROGERS: Well, who knows. What I have done is I’m short in the U.S. stock market – the nine or ten stocks that never go down – Amazon, Netflix… those things. I am short junk bonds in the U.S., I am long in China – mainly because I have to be long somewhere. So I’m short junk bonds, I’m short the U.S. stock market, I own a lot of U.S. dollars for the reasons I mentioned. That’s mainly where my money is. But who knows if I’ve got it right. I own some other stocks too that I’ve owned for decades…

Rogers provides additional insights into bonds, the U.S. dollar, gold, monetary policy, agriculture, commodities, silver, crude oil, and other topics. Like I said, terrific interview. Not wanting to steal West’s thunder, head on over to the Midas Letter website here to read it all.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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