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Martin Armstrong: ‘The United States Will Most Likely Break Apart By 2036’

Back on January 27, 2016, I asked:

Do any readers follow Martin Armstrong, economist at Armstrong Economics (and former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd.) and the creator of the Economic Confidence Model? While the jury’s still out on him (for me), I do read his blog almost daily…

I still “read his blog almost daily.” And something Armstrong wrote last week really caught my attention. From “The Termination of Cash Approaching Rapidly”:

I am becoming deeply concerned that the United States is headed into its version of a communist revolution under the label “progressive” and the bankers, who Larry Summers has always supported, will be used as the scapegoat for Wall Street and the “rich” who have to be stripped of their liberty and their money for the “good of the people” as they always say. The United States does not look like it will be a country we can recognize by 2032 if we can even make it past 2024. The United States will most likely break apart by 2036. There are separatist movements rising in many areas from Vermont and Texas to California, who reasons they voted for Hillary not Trump justifying their departure.

The entire purpose of eliminating cash is to strip us of our assets, liberty, and to prevent bank runs. The youth, who have been brainwashed by Bernie Sanders and people like Elizabeth Warren, will turn against the older generation and enslave them if at all possible. This threatens our future with outright civil war. They will not be satisfied until they destroy the freedom of their opposition. It is starting to appear that 2036 is our date with destiny

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

America kaput by 2036- if not earlier?

That’s a pretty disturbing thought. And reading that blog post reminded me of an article I pulled up almost eight years ago on The Wall Street Journal website (my how time flies) by Andrew Osborn, who discussed a similar prediction made by Russian academic Igor Panarin, a former KGB analyst and Dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s school for future diplomats (then and now). On December 29, 2008, Osborn wrote:

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control…

California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Obviously 2010 came and went… and the good ol’ U.S. of A. remains intact.

But I can’t help but wonder if Panarin’s prediction might not be in the same category as an infamous forecast made by the American financial analyst Meredith Whitney about a wave of municipal defaults. I wrote back on December 22, 2010:

Last night Whitney, now CEO and founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, appeared on CNBC and warned that a wave of defaults by state and local governments in the coming months will cause a sell-off in the municipal bond market, hurting U.S. economic growth and stocks- and causing social unrest

I blogged a year-and-a-half later:

Whitney will eventually be vindicated about the wave of defaults (her timing was just off)…

“Her timing was just off”

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Sources:

Armstrong, Martin. “The Termination of Cash Approaching Rapidly.” Armstrong Economics Blog. 24 Nov. 2016. (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/the-termination-of-cash-approaching-rapidly-the/). 1 Dec. 2016.

Osborn, Andrew. “As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.” The Wall Street Journal. 29 Dec. 2008. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123051100709638419). 1 Dec. 2016.

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DHS Issues Holiday Terrorism Warning

The holidays are fast approaching. So it was only a matter of time before a terrorism warning was issued for the American public. Lee Ferran, Aaron Katersky, Josh Margolin, and Brian Ross reported on the ABC News website Tuesday:

U.S. officials issued a somber warning today that the coming holiday season could mean “opportunities for violent extremists” to strike, especially as terrorist groups are squeezed abroad.

“Though we know of no intelligence that is both specific and credible at this time of a plot by terrorist organizations to attack the homeland, the reality is terrorist-inspired individuals have conducted, or attempted to conduct, attacks in the United States,” reads a bulletin posted online today by the Department of Homeland Security.

The warning says terrorists could attempt to target “public events and places where people congregate.”

The bulletin came days after an ISIS magazine called on the terrorist group’s followers to use vehicles to attack popular outdoor attractions, like a New York parade…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Personally, I believe a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (or that belonging to our allies) during the upcoming holiday season is a real possibility. Considering how deadly that truck proved to be in Nice, France, this past summer, another assault in this manner would no doubt be considered by the bad guys.

Headed out to “public events and places where people congregate”? Maintaining a high degree of situational awareness (head on a swivel) is probably a good idea.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Ferran, Lee, Katersky, Aaron, Margolin, Josh and Ross, Brian. “Holiday Season Could Be Target for Terrorists, DHS Says.” ABC News. 15 Nov. 2016. (http://abcnews.go.com/US/holiday-season-target-terrorists-dhs/story?id=43559766). 17 Nov. 2016.

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Marc Faber: ‘I Think Before The Year End We’ll Have Some Form Of QE 4 In The U.S.’

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the phone with the FOX Business Network this morning. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report discussed additional intervention by the world’s central banks in the wake of the “Brexit” vote and more quantitative easing in the United States. “Doctor Doom,” as the financial news media likes to call him, told viewers:

Regarding the confidence, I’m not so sure, because if you look at the performance of Treasury bonds, they would indicate that there is a sense that the economy’s weakening and that there are problems in the financial system. Also if you look at the performance of European bank stocks, they are horrible performers. So the confidence coming back- I’m not sure. But clearly Brexit means more money printing by central banks. They will continue to intervene. And I think before the year end we’ll have some form of QE4 in the U.S…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Marc Faber: Brexit means more money printing by central banks”
FOX Business Network Video

On the spectre of recession, Dr. Faber added:

I think the problem will be if there are no additional QEs around the world- not just in the U.S. but around the world- is that asset prices will no longer go up and we’ve seen this already in London properties, in New York properties- and this will have a negative impact on the economy. The recession in my view is not going to come from really the economy per se, but from asset price deflation

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Signs Of The Time, Part 88

The Financial Times (UK) website reported yesterday that Z/Yen, billed as “the City of London’s leading commercial think-tank,” just published its eighteenth Global Financial Centres Index. GFCI 18, as it’s otherwise known, rated 84 of the world’s financial centers. From a Z/Yen press release Wednesday:

London has moved ahead of New York to reclaim the number one position. London climbed 12 points in the ratings to lead New York by eight points…

London, New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore remain remain the four leading global financial centres. New York, in second place is now 33 points ahead of Hong Kong in third. Tokyo, in fifth place, is 25 points behind the leaders…

Toronto (8th), San Francisco (9th), and Washington, D.C. (10th) were other North American cities in the “top ten” of this year’s Index.

You can read the entire Z/Yen press release on their website here (.pdf format).


YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Thursday, September 24th, 2015 Asia, Europe, North America, Signs Of The Time No Comments

Chicago Falling To Fourth-Largest U.S. City?

Really not surprised to read of the following. Jon Herskovitz reported on Reuters.com Sunday:

Within eight to 10 years, Houston is forecast by demographers in the two states to pass Chicago, which has seen its population decline for years, as the third-largest city.

Houston is projected to have population of 2.54 million to 2.7 million by 2025 while Chicago will be at 2.5 million, according to official data from both states provided for their health departments. New York and Los Angeles are safe at one and two respectively…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Herskovitz added Chicago officials weren’t immediately available for comment about the forecast.

Perhaps too busy working out the details for that huge property tax hike that looks to be on its way? According to Greg Hinz over on the Crain’s Chicago Business website earlier today:

City Hall insiders say the goal is to completely exempt the lower half of Chicago homeowners from paying any of the roughly $500 million in higher property taxes the mayor is expected to propose on Sept. 22 in his annual budget speech. The upper half of homeowners would get a partial break, but still pay somewhat more.

If it moves forward in its current form, the plan would whack commercial and industrial property owners with a double shot. They would have to pay their normal share of the $500 million but also pick up what homeowners aren’t paying…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Like the popular Chicago police blog Second City Cop said yesterday:

Here a tax, there a tax, everywhere a tax tax.

That “tax tax” could soon be arriving at the doorsteps of commercial/ industrial property owners in the “Second City.”

Or soon-to-be “Fourth City” if that prediction pans out.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Herskovitz, Jon. “America’s city rankings set for Texas-sized shake up; Houston to edge past Chicago.” Reuters. 13 Sep. 2015. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/13/us-usa-houston-idUSKCN0RD0E420150913). 14 Sep. 2015.

Hinz, Greg. “Who gets socked—and who doesn’t—in Emanuel’s latest tax hike plan?” Crain’s Chicago Business. 14 Sep. 2015. (http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150914/BLOGS02/150919926/emanuel-plan-would-exempt-chicago-homeowners-from-big-property-tax). 14 Sep. 2015.

SCC. “And Another 9%.” Second City Cop. 13 Sep. 2015. (http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/2015/09/and-another-9.html). 14 Sep. 2015.

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Complacency Over Next Terror Attack By Muslim Extremists

FBI, CIA, NSA all say no 9/11 terror threat

The directors of the FBI, CIA and the National Security Agency said Thursday they have seen no specific or credible threat to the American homeland in connection with the 14th anniversary of 9/11 — despite a surge of digital and audio propaganda circulated in recent days from both al Qaeda and its growing rival on the global jihadi stage, the Islamic State…”

The Washington Times, September 10, 2015

On the eve of the 14th anniversary of the September 11, 2001, Al-Qaeda terror attacks, I detect an abundance of complacency in the U.S. concerning the next attack by Muslim extremists. For example:

Since September 11, Threat of Terrorism Has Morphed

Bin Laden’s distant dream of a caliphate in lands cleared of Western influence is being reshaped by the Islamic State, which exercises terror very differently, with less interest in attacking the ‘far enemy’ of the West than in creating a Salafist revolutionary regime…”

-Steven Erlanger, The New York Times, September 10, 2015

Does 9/11 really still have to be a ‘national emergency’?

As memorable and as meaningful as the 9/11 attacks were, they were also 14 years ago… virtually all the al-Qaeda leadership who planned the 9/11 attacks are dead or in custody, and while the long convoluted plotline of post 9/11 war and conflict has created an ongoing mess in the Middle East, any lingering threat to what was billed ‘the homeland’ — and the vigilance needed to stop it — is in a much, much better place than it was in 2001…

So what good comes of declaring a ‘national emergency,’ year after year?”

-Will Bunch, The Philadelphia Inquirer website, September 10, 2015

This is the wrong time to cut the city’s anti-terror funding

Alarmingly, funding is slowly decreasing for New York City under the ‘Securing the Cities’ program, which helps first responders detect nuclear materials and prevent attacks. The initiative deploys radiation-detection capabilities to the region’s law-enforcement agencies to identify illicit radiological materials that could be used for an attack.

This type of work requires sophisticated equipment and constant training — both of which are expensive but plainly worth the cost. Yet the Obama administration has proposed repeated cuts to the program, this year requesting only $10 million compared to historic levels of nearly double that amount…”

-U.S. Representative Dan Donovan (NY-11th), New York Post, September 10, 2015

Consider what Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City at the time of the 9/11 terror attacks, wrote on The Wall Street Journal website Thursday:

It would be a mistake, however, to conclude that 9/11 is now simply a part of the nation’s history, like Pearl Harbor. Because there is one big difference. The causes and hatreds that created 9/11 are still with us, and the terrorists have enlisted members who are even more diverse, cunning and determined. The Islamist terrorist war against us continues. This is not a matter of history but of current and future threats…

Now, once again, the terrorist attacks under the banner of jihad are increasing and diversifying. With so many such attacks and thwarted attacks over the past five or six years, we must recognize that “they”—those who want to destroy civilization—are continuing the war against us.

Yet those running our government seem to be in an even greater state of denial than the nation was in during the period before Sept. 11. Now, instead of bin Laden, Iran’s supreme ayatollah has declared that he wants to destroy Israel, to continue to kill Americans and to establish an Islamic empire including Iraq, Syria and Yemen—and the terrorist groups Iran supports. At the same time, the group known as Islamic State, or ISIS, has declared a caliphate seeking the destruction of Christianity and other infidels, and now occupies key areas of Iraq and Syria.

As we reflect on the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, we must remind ourselves that all the wickedness underlying those attacks still exists and has expanded. We may very well be in more jeopardy now than before 9/11. Attacks such as those at Fort Hood, the Boston Marathon and similar incidents in Europe and around the world reveal that many enemies, not just one, are united in purpose: the destruction of our way of life. Each of these attacks may be more limited than the coordinated terrorist assault on Sept. 11, but they are frequent and hard to anticipate, causing widespread fear, the ultimate goal of terrorism.

We must acknowledge this war being waged against us, increase the military’s capacity to deal with it and, most important, train police to recognize the precursors of terrorist acts. U.S. military and intelligence capacity must not be drastically cut as proposed by this administration. It should be quantitatively increased and strategically improved…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Just as I’m convinced a financial crash is coming to our shores, I’m sure another terror attack will be perpetrated by Muslim extremists.

Concerning both, it’s just a matter of “when.”

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Taylor, Guy. “FBI, CIA, NSA all say no 9/11 terror threat.” The Washington Times. 10 Sep. 2015. (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/10/fbi-cia-nsa-all-say-no-911-terror-threat/). 10 Sep. 2015.

Erlanger, Steven. “Since September 11, Threat of Terrorism Has Morphed.” The New York Times. 10 Sep. 2015. (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/11/world/europe/9-11-anniversary-terrorism-europe.html?_r=1). 10 Sep. 2015.

Bunch, Will. “Does 9/11 really still have to be a ‘national emergency’?” The Philadelphia Inquirer. 10 Sep. 2015. (http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/attytood/Does-911-really-still-have-to-be-a-national-emergency.html). 10 Sep. 2015.

Donovan, Dan. “This is the wrong time to cut the city’s anti-terror funding.” New York Post. 10 Sep. 2015. (http://nypost.com/2015/09/10/this-is-the-wrong-time-to-cut-the-citys-anti-terror-funding/). 10 Sep. 2015.

Giuliani, Rudolph W. “The Islamist Menace Shadowing This Sept. 11.” The Wall Street Journal. 10 Sep. 2015. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-islamist-menace-shadowing-this-sept-11-1441929416). 10 Sep. 2015.

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September Is National Preparedness Month

I am wholeheartedly behind Survival And Prosperity readers “celebrating” the following. From the Federal Emergency Management Agency earlier today:

National Preparedness Month Kicks Off on September 1

Washington – Disasters like floods, hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, and earthquakes are a harsh and frequent reality for much of the country. According to a recent survey conducted by FEMA, progress has been made; however, fewer than half of Americans have discussed and developed an emergency plan with their household.

Today, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Ad Council launched a new series of public service announcements (PSAs) to encourage families to develop an emergency communication plan before a disaster occurs. An extension of the national Ready campaign, the new PSAs launch in conjunction with the 12th annual National Preparedness Month, serving as a reminder to take action to prepare for the types of hazards that could impact where you live, work, and vacation.

“The last thing you want to be worried about during a disaster is how to communicate with your family members,” said Administrator Craig Fugate. “Have that conversation today. It doesn’t cost a thing.”

The new campaign includes English and Spanish-language TV, radio, outdoor, print and digital PSAs. Created pro bono by Chicago-based advertising agency Schafer Condon Carter, the PSAs illustrate the importance of having a family plan in the event of an emergency by showing real emergency moments and asking the question, “when is the right time to prepare?” The viewer is encouraged to develop a family emergency communication plan through the clear message, “Don’t wait. Communicate.” The PSAs direct audiences to Ready.gov/communicate for tools and resources to help develop and practice a family emergency communication plan.

“Through the Ready campaign, we’ve made a lot of progress educating and empowering Americans to prepare for all types of emergencies but there are still so many families that don’t have a plan, said Lisa Sherman, President and CEO of the Ad Council. “Having these conversations is really important and can have a big impact on our families’ safety in the event of a disaster.”

“SCC is honored to work with the Ad Council and FEMA on the Ready campaign,” said David Selby, President and Managing Partner of SCC. “This new campaign provides powerful imagery and a critically important call-to-action that we hope will cause individuals and families to pay attention, lean in and, ultimately, take action.”

Localized television and radio PSAs were created and will be available for 27 states, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Washington D.C., and New York City as part of an ongoing collaboration with state and local emergency management partners. These PSAs drive audiences to their local organization’s website for resources and information pertinent to their area.

As an extension of the national Ready campaign, versions of the PSAs were created for Ready New York, a local initiative that was launched in partnership with the New York City Office of Emergency Management in 2009. Tailoring the message to the unique challenges faced by people living in New York City, audiences are directed to call 311 or visit NYC.gov/readyny, where they can find preparedness resources, including 11 Ready New York guides in 13 languages and audio format.

Managed and sponsored by the Ready campaign, National Preparedness Month is designed to raise awareness and encourage Americans to take steps to prepare for emergencies in their homes, schools, organizations, businesses, and places of worship. National Preparedness Month is an opportunity to share emergency preparedness information and host activities across the country to help Americans understand what it truly means to be ready.

National Preparedness Month Weekly Themes

Week 1 (September 1–5) Flood
Week 2 (September 6–12) Wildfire
Week 3 (September 13–19) Hurricane
Week 4 (September 20–26) Power Outage
Week 5 (September 27–30) Lead up to National PrepareAthon! Day, September 30

National Preparedness Month culminates with National PrepareAthon! Day on September 30 when cities and counties across the country are planning community-wide events bringing together schools, their business community, government, faith leaders, hospitals, individuals and families, and others to participate in community-wide preparedness drills and activities for hazards that are relevant to their area.

Since the launch in 2003, the Ready Campaign has received nearly $1.2 billion in donated media. The Campaign helps to generate more than 92 million unique visitors to Ready.gov. The Ad Council is distributing the new PSAs to media outlets nationwide this week, and the PSAs will run in donated time and space.

For more information visit Ready.gov/September or follow the campaign on Facebook and Twitter. For more information about National PrepareAthon! Day, visit www.ready.gov/prepare.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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My Thoughts On Chicago’s Financial Crisis

I know I’ve been blogging a lot about Chicago/Cook County/Illinois lately. Which should come as no surprise to regular Survival And Prosperity readers considering I’ve talked about how I was born on the West Side, was raised around that area, and lived on the Northwest Side until I moved to the northwest suburbs two years ago.

Both the Chicagoland area and Illinois have been on my mind a lot recently. I fear we’re on the verge of some major upheaval stemming from decades of fiscal mismanagement by policymakers from both sides of the political aisle (some might think this blog only targets Democrats- over the years I’ve demonstrated everyone’s “fair game”). And by verge, I mean in the coming weeks. Focusing on Chicago today, what might kick it off (regular observers have witnessed the crisis growing for some time now)? I suspect the following. From the Chicago Tribune website back on July 31:

At a news conference this week, the mayor would not rule out a politically unpopular property tax hike, saying he’ll wait to show his hand until September, when he rolls out “a full budget with all parts in there.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

A good portion of the coming pain is going to be felt by the Chicago taxpayer. What kind of “pain” am I talking about? That which I’ve been blogging about for a couple of years now- new/higher fees, fines, and taxes, coupled with reduced government services. Last night’s post about potential revenue generators Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and the City Council are mulling over (hat tip Fran Spielman of the Chicago Sun-Times) should give Chicagoans a better picture of what’s headed their way (a property tax hike and garbage collection fee look likely). Concerning cutbacks in government services, I think that’s already begun. For example, the manpower shortage in the Chicago Police Department (hat tip Second City Cop) that’s existed for some years now. Down the road, I predict the average Chicago taxpayer will find it increasingly difficult to afford living in the city, let alone doing it safely as local government struggles to provide effective, efficient services to constituents.

Now, it’s bad enough Chicago/Cook County/Illinois are in real financial trouble. But then there’s the legitimate concern of a slowing economy/recession being right around the corner, never mind that coming financial crash I started blogging about back on Memorial Day Weekend 2007.

So what’s a Chicago taxpayer to do? This former Chicago resident picked up and left the city limits in 2013. Concerned about future tax and public safety liabilities, my girlfriend and I reluctantly departed our “suburb in the city” and moved into a house in a not-too-far away authentic suburb. Granted, we’ll still be on the hook for county and state problems, but it’s what makes sense for us in the short-term.

As much as I blast Chicago on Survival And Prosperity (“tough love”), I’m not convinced the city’s going to go “belly-up.” I think there’s a good chance it could be run by something similar to the Emergency Financial Control Board in New York City from 1975 until 1986 (talked about here back in April), but even a setback like that won’t be the end of the “City By The Lake,” just like it wasn’t for the “Big Apple.” I do predict city life is going to get real hairy once the “balloon goes up,” but I think that will be the case in a lot of urban areas nationwide.

That’s my two cents on Chicago’s financial crisis- for now. Chicago readers of this blog- what are you planning to do about the crisis? Or, what are you already doing? Maybe you don’t think a crisis exists? Please share your thoughts or experiences in the “Comments” section of this post, as I’d really like to talk more about this going forward.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

Dardick, Hal. “Emanuel needs $754M more to make ends meet.” Chicago Tribune. 31 July 2015. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-rahm-emanuel-chicago-budget-shortfall-met-0801-20150731-story.html). 21 Aug. 2015.

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Chicago Police ‘Stop-And-Frisks’ To Plummet After ACLU Agreement?

“Pro active policing is now dead in Chicago. Put on the blinders boys and girls and just handle your calls. No more stops on the street or hand wavers. Give Chicago the police department they deserve.”

-Comment on the popular Chicago police blog Second City Cop, August 8, 2015

ABC7 News (Chicago) reported on its website Friday night that the Chicago Police Department has reached “an agreement with the ACLU over so-called ‘stop-and-frisks.’” From the piece:

In March, a report from the ACLU of Illinois found Chicago police officers disproportionately targeted blacks and other racial minorities in hundreds of thousands of stop, question and frisk encounters. The ACLU accused the Chicago Police Department’s policy of feeding racial profiling and threatened a lawsuit.

The agreement avoids litigation and will lead to a change in CPD procedures, including more record-keeping, police officer training, and public disclosure on traffic stops…

The city and department have agreed to collect additional data about investigatory stops. That includes officers’ names and badge numbers, the race, ethnicity and gender of the person stopped, the reason for the stop, the location, date and time of the stop and other details.

That information will be given to the ACLU and Former U.S. Magistrate Judge Arlander Keys, who will oversee the agreement’s implementation and release a public report twice a year. Judge Keys will be able to look at where the stops are occurring and who is making them, down to the individual officer

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Will Chicago be heading down the same path as New York City as a result of this new “stop-and-frisk” agreement with the ACLU? Consider the following from the CBS2 News (New York City) website back on March 4:

New guidelines for the stop, question and frisk policing method were released to NYPD officers this week, and the patrol union said the guidelines will make the officers’ jobs more difficult.

The Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association is not happy.

“It’s confusing police officers where it’s coming to a point where we’re going to have to travel with legal counsel to articulate what we’re supposed to do,” said PBA President Patrick Lynch.

The new policy said in order to conduct a stop, an officer “must have individualized, reasonable suspicion that the person stopped has committed, is committing, or is about to commit a felony or penal law misdemeanor.”

A “mere suspicion or a hunch” is not enough for a stop, the memo said.

A conclusion that someone is acting suspiciously based on “furtive movements,” or a person’s mere presence in a “high-crime area,” is not enough to warrant a stop by an officer under the new guidelines. Stops and frisks were permitted for such reasons alone in the past, according to published reports.

The guidelines also forbid stops by an officer based on a generalized description of a suspect – such as one that includes only a race and an age range.

“A person may not be stopped merely because he or she matches a generalized description of a crime suspect, such as an 18- to 25-year-old black male; if physical description is the only factor relied on by the officer, it must be more specific than that to form a sufficient basis for a stop,” the guidelines said.

The guidelines further said that a frisk is not always automatically acceptable whenever an officer stops someone.

“The officer must have an independent basis to reasonably suspect that a person who has been stopped is armed and dangerous in order to frisk that person,” the guidelines said.

Officers will also have to write a narrative explaining what justified the stop, question and frisk…

On June 5, Kerry Burke, Larry McShane, and Rocco Parascandola reported on the Daily News (New York) website:

A dramatic drop in stop-and-frisk encounters has emboldened criminals and made cops more reluctant to take proactive police action, even as murders and shootings are on the rise in the city.

The frightening message — echoed by police supervisors and union leaders — comes as stop-and-frisk encounters are on pace to plunge by 42% this year, with 20,000 fewer street stops.

There were 11,652 stops across the city through June 3 — projecting to roughly 28,000 for the year, records obtained by the Daily News show. As the number of stops fell, the number of murders spiked 19.5% during the first five months of the year, the number of people shot is up 9.2% and the number of shooting incidents jumped 9%.

“What you’re seeing now are the perps carrying their guns because they’re not afraid to carry them,” said Ed Mullins, head of the Sergeants Benevolent Association. “We’ve created an atmosphere where we’ve handcuffed the police. We are sitting back, taking a less proactive approach.”

Mullins said the city’s criminal element has been operating without fear while cops have been somewhat neutered in the last two years — and he wasn’t the only one to raise the issue…

City cops, citing increased scrutiny from the NYPD’s inspector general, the state attorney general and City Hall, say the cutback on stops is about self-preservation.

“Everyone is afraid to make stops,” said one Brooklyn police supervisor. “No one wants to get jammed up. They’re telling us the stops have to be quality stops. But if you make a stop, and you think it’s a good one, and the guy has nothing on him, is that a good stop?”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Time will tell if the “Windy City” goes the way of the “Big Apple” concerning “stop-and-frisks.”

If it does, Chicago blog readers shouldn’t be surprised if there’s also a corresponding jump in crime.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

“CPD agrees to ‘stop-and-frisk’ reforms, avoids ACLU lawsuit.” ABC7 News. 7 Aug. 2015. (http://abc7chicago.com/news/cpd-agrees-to-stop-and-frisk-reforms-avoids-aclu-lawsuit/909740/). 8 Aug. 2015.

“PBA: New Stop-And-Frisk Guidelines Will Confuse Officers, Make Jobs Harder.” CBS2 News. 4 Mar. 2015. (http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/03/04/pba-new-stop-and-frisk-guidelines-will-confuse-officers-make-jobs-harder/). 8 Aug. 2015.

Burke, Kerry, McShane, Larry, and Rocco Parascandola. “EXCLUSIVE: Huge drop in stop-and-frisk as NYC crime increases raises fear that cops are reluctant to confront criminals.” Daily News. 5 June 2015. (http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/exclusive-big-fall-stop-and-frisk-criminals-bolder-article-1.2247406). 8 Aug. 2015.

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Sunday, August 9th, 2015 Crime, Government, Public Safety, Self-Defense No Comments

Chicago To Be Run By Emergency Financial Control Board Within 2 Years?

Last Wednesday, I reminded Survival And Prosperity readers (local ones in particular) that Chicago- upon reelecting Rahm Emanuel as Mayor- remains in serious financial trouble. From that post:

As Rahm Emanuel enters his second term as Mayor of Chicago, I feel that proverbial brick wall is still fast-approaching.

Perhaps the best Chicagoans can hope for at this point is a controlled crash landing.

I know one thing. If I were still living in the city, I’d be preparing for the coming carnage…

Some readers might feel I was being a little too “sensational” with that statement. Therefore, I’d like to offer up the following for your consideration. Reuters’ Megan Davies and Karen Pierog reported on April 8:

Chicago has not seen the population losses Detroit did and its business and commercial real estate markets remain healthy, but its current circumstances are more dire than any other major American city today, with aggregate debt of $21.4 billion, up 60 percent since 2004.

Although Chicago’s situation isn’t bad enough yet to warrant a bankruptcy filing, that threat is out there if it fails to tackle its problems.

“People say Chicago’s not Detroit,” said Tom Metzold, a senior portfolio advisor at investment manager Eaton Vance. “Not right now. Chicago is Detroit ten years from now. I don’t care how economically strong your economy is. They don’t have a printing press. You can only tax so much.”

Metzold estimated the odds of a Chapter 9 bankruptcy in the next five years are “virtually zero” but said in the next 10 years that could rise to 25 percent if it fails to act

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

In case readers are wondering, Metzold’s s “Street cred” includes serving as VP and Co-Director of Municipal Investments at Eaton Vance (one of the oldest investment management firms in the U.S.- established 1924), and as its Portfolio Manager since 1991.

Not as “optimistic” about Chicago’s financial future is Joe Mysak, Editor of Bloomberg Brief. He warned in an April 8 commentary:

I’m not a betting man. If I were, I’d bet that Chicago is going to be run by an Emergency Financial Control Board, or something like it, within two years, the same as New York City back in 1975 (and until 1986)…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Mysak, who’s been covering the municipal bond market since 1981, pointed out the city’s abysmal Moody’s credit rating (“one step from the basement of investment grade”) and wrote:

So a cut to junk may well be in the cards, and with it diminished and eventually lack of access to capital. Chicago has already creatively used, and some would say abused, the municipal market to subsidize city operations…

When the banks no longer want to lend to Chicago is presumably when the state of Illinois would come in, offering cash, loan guarantees, intercession with the federal government and whatever else the city needs in exchange for external management via an Emergency Financial Control Board…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The author of the Encyclopedia of Municipal Bonds signed-off with:

Two years. That’s how long I give the city of Chicago. Good luck, Rahm.

Good luck Chicago…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Davies, Megan and Pierog, Karen. “Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel confronts fiscal nightmare as he begins second term.” Reuters. 8 Apr. 2015. (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/04/chicago-mayor-rahm-emanuel-confronts-fiscal-nightmare-as-he-begins-second-term/). 12 Apr. 2015.

Mysak, Joe. “Next Stop for Chicago: Emergency Financial Control Board.” Bloomberg Brief. 8 Apr. 2015. (http://newsletters.briefs.bloomberg.com/document/3fz176niqylzjr6oax/commentary). 12 Apr. 2015.

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Survival And Prosperity
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Christopher E. Hill, Editor

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