pandemic
Watch Out For H7N9 Bird Flu
Anyone been paying attention to the spread of the H7N9 bird flu virus in China? This is something to keep an eye out for. From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website:
On April 1, 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) first reported 3 human infections with a new influenza A (H7N9) virus in China. Since then, additional cases have been reported. Most reported cases have severe respiratory illness and, in some cases, have died. At this time, no cases of H7N9 outside of China have been reported. The new H7N9 virus has not been detected in people or birds in the United States.
This new H7N9 virus is an avian (bird) influenza (flu) virus. Human infections with avian influenza (AI, or “bird flu”) are rare but have occurred in the past, most commonly after exposure to infected poultry. However, this is the first time that this bird flu subtype (H7N9) has been found in people. This virus is very different from other H7N9 viruses previously found in birds.
An investigation by Chinese authorities is ongoing. H7N9 viruses have been detected in poultry in the same area where human infections have occurred. Many of the human cases of H7N9 are reported to have had contact with poultry. However some cases reportedly have not had such contact. Close contacts of confirmed H7N9 patients are being followed to see if any human-to-human spread of H7N9 might have occurred. Based on previous experience with other avian influenza viruses – most notably H5N1 – some limited human-to-human spread of this H7N9 virus would not be surprising. Most importantly, however, no sustained person-to-person spread of the H7N9 virus has been found at this time. Ongoing (sustained) person-to-person spread is necessary for a pandemic to occur.
This is a “novel” (non-human) virus and therefore has the potential to cause a pandemic if it were to change to become easily and sustainably spread from person-to-person. So far, this virus has not been determined to have that capability. However, influenza viruses constantly change and it’s possible that this virus could gain that ability. CDC takes routine preparedness actions whenever a new virus with pandemic potential is identified, including developing a candidate vaccine virus to make a vaccine if it were to be needed. There is no licensed H7 vaccine available at this time.
According to Bloomberg.com this morning, the CDC is trying to stay on top of this novel bird flu. Anna Edney reported:
U.S. hospitals are being urged to head off a spread of the new H7N9 avian influenza by looking out for people exhibiting flu-like symptoms who have traveled to China or had contact with someone who has the illness.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention held a conference call with health-care professionals yesterday to review procedures for treating bird-flu patients and controlling infections, Erin Burns, an agency spokeswoman, said in an e- mail. The Atlanta-based agency today issued interim guidance on the use of antiviral agents to treat H7N9 infections.
Issuing the guidance and holding the clinician calls “would be considered routine preparedness measures for an outbreak with pandemic potential,” Burns said.
China has recorded 92 human infections of the H7N9 strain of bird flu, with 17 of the cases fatal, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from national and provincial governments and the World Health Organization.
Speaking of the WHO, they’re now at ground zero in China investigating the outbreak. From the China Daily website today:
WHO experts are inspecting Chinese regions that have been hit by the H7N9 avian influenza, according to the National Health and Family Planning Commission.
A Friday statement from the commission said the expert team, which is visiting at the commission’s invitation, consists of Chinese and foreign experts in epidemiology and clinical management.
The team members will survey labs, hospitals, clinics, markets and sites where infections were reported in Beijing and Shanghai, as well as familiarize themselves with China’s prevention and control methods.
The commission said the experts will offer suggestions on controlling the virus, as well as issue an initial inspection report on April 24.
Stay tuned…
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Edney, Anna. “U.S. Hospitals Told to Be on Lookout for H7N9 Bird Flu.” Bloomberg.com. 19 Apr. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/u-s-hospitals-told-to-be-on-lookout-for-h7n9-bird-flu.html). 19 Apr. 2013.
“WHO experts start H7N9 probe in China.” ChinaDaily.com.cn. 19 Apr. 2013. (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-04/19/content_16424416.htm). 19 Apr. 2013.
WHO: SARS-Like Novel Coronavirus ‘Offers Further Indications Of Person-To-Person Transmission’
“Health officials in the UK believe they have the strongest evidence yet that a new respiratory illness similar to the deadly Sars virus can spread from person to person.
Cases of the infection may come from contact with animals. However, if the virus can spread between people it poses a much more serious threat…”
-BBC News website, February 13, 2013
Novel coronavirus (NCoV). A SARS-like virus I’ve been hearing more of recently. And of particular concern to the World Health Organization (WHO). From a February 16 posting on the “Disease Outbreak News” section of their website:
The United Kingdom (UK) has informed WHO of another confirmed case of infection with the novel coronavirus (NCoV). This is the third case confirmed in the country this month and is in the same family cluster as the two recently confirmed cases.
The latest confirmed case does not have recent travel history outside the UK. The case is recovering from mild respiratory illness and is currently well.
The confirmation with NCoV in this case with no recent travel history indicates that infection was acquired in the UK. Although this new case offers further indications of person-to-person transmission, no sustained person-to-person transmission has been identified…
As of 16 February 2013, WHO has been informed of a total of 12 confirmed cases of human infection with NCoV, including five deaths…
WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event nor does it recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied.
WHO continues to closely monitor the situation.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
12 confirmed cases of this new coronavirus. 5 deaths.
The vibe I’m getting from public health circles is that human-to-human transmission of NCoV is pretty difficult, so there’s not much worry of a pandemic at this point in time.
Still, like the WHO suggested in their bulletin, it’s something worth keeping an eye on. People infected with the novel coronavirus have developed acute respiratory illness with symptoms of shortness of breath, cough, and pneumonia. There are no specific treatments for the illnesses caused by the virus.
You can learn more about the novel coronavirus at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website here. And you can read that entire WHO infection update on their site here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Gallagher, James. “Coronavirus: Signs the new Sars-like virus can spread between people.” BBC News. 13 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21442519). 18 Feb. 2013.
Post Number 1,000
Well here we are.
Post number 1,000 on Survival And Prosperity, “Protecting and Growing Self and Wealth in These Uncertain Times.”
It feels like it was only yesterday when I launched this successor to Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street.” In fact, it’s been almost 22 months since its debut. My how time flies. Especially when bad economic news keeps piling on. The Pollyanna gang might argue that Keynesian strategies pursued by Washington and the Fed successfully ended the “Great Recession” and have put the United States on a sustainable path to recovery. I’m of the approach that when a lot of money is poured into the financial system you’re bound to see some sort of pick-up in activity. At least initially. And, as we’ve witnessed, only temporarily, as more “stimulus” is required to keep the whole thing afloat.
But where has that left the country? As of last week, over $16 trillion in debt. And on the verge of yet another “quantitative easing.” And anyone who really believes debt doesn’t matter is in for a rude awakening when the nation’s “financial reckoning day” finally does arrives.
Since the launch of Boom2Bust.com back in May 2007, I’ve been warning about a coming U.S. financial crash. As much as some might credit me for calling it, the maelstrom that blew through the U.S. and global economies back in the fall of 2008 was only a part of the collapse that I still see heading our way. Somewhat surprisingly, Washington and the Fed have managed to “kick the can down the road” for the time being. But the road only goes so far. Will the crash happen all it once, or will it be drawn out over several years? I don’t know. I just know that my interpretation of the available data leads me to believe its coming.
To complicate matters, these days Americans must take into account other threats besides an economic crash. Depending on what one believes, these could include:
• Global warming
• Nuclear terrorism
• Overpopulation
• Pandemic
• Peak oil production
• Resource shortages
• Solar flares
There are others. Nevertheless, a lot of threats exist these days which endanger our survival and prosperity.
So in 2012, are we looking at the end of the world? Probably not. But most likely the end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI), particularly as it relates to the U.S. economy and larger financial system. Accordingly, life in America is about to get a whole lot tougher for most (if it already hasn’t). A number of really smart individuals who predicted the 2008 global economic crisis and “Great Recession” suggest we could see:
• Civil strife, including rioting and looting
• Currency controls
• Hyperinflation
• Martial law
• Much higher taxes and fees
• Rampant crime
• “Second Great Depression”
There’s more, but I think you get the picture.
Despite all this, I must remind you that I’m not talking about the end of the world here. Remember, even at its worst unemployment during the Great Depression ran somewhere around 25 percent. While that really sucked for those without a job, not everyone found themselves in a soup kitchen line. The economy and society, though hobbled, still functioned.
I’m a big believer that, despite the coming crash, things will turn out okay for America in the long-run.
I also believe that focusing on one’s personal and financial safety and growth right now will go a long way in helping you and your loved ones come out on the other side of the approaching storm in reasonably good shape.
Wishing you all the best now, and down the rocky road I see in store for us,
Christopher E. Hill
Editor
Bird Flu Three Steps Away From Mutating Into Dangerous Pandemic Strain
It’s summertime, and the last thing on most Americans’ minds is the flu.
However, one particular type of influenza- H5N1 avian influenza, or “bird flu”- is on scientists’ minds, and what they’re learning about it is disturbing.
Rob Waugh wrote on the Daily Mail (UK) website yesterday:
As scientists delve deeper into H5N1 bird flu, they have discovered it is only three steps away from mutating into a potentially lethal human pandemic form.
The find has added new urgency to scientists’ quest for a way to prevent a deadly global outbreak that could kill millions…
In 2009, during the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, vaccines only became available months after the virus had spread around the world – and even then there was only enough for one in five of the world’s 7 billion people.
Next time, experts say, we need another approach.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
As a result, the scientific community is discussing pre-pandemic vaccination, or immunization before a flu pandemic strikes. Waugh added:
The last flu pandemic was widely viewed as a mild strain… A mutated human pandemic form of H5N1 bird flu could be a whole different ball game. H5N1 does not yet pass easily from birds to people but when it does it kills around 60 percent of those infected.
The virus continues to spread among birds in Asia, with China reporting the latest cull of more than 150,000 chickens in the far western region of Xinjiang just last week. As of July 6, the WHO counts 607 cases of people infected by bird flu globally. Of those, 358 died, a fatality rate of 59 percent.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
There’s been controversy over the recent release of two research papers about H5N1 avian influenza. Donald McNeil Jr. wrote on the website of The New York Times on June 21:
The more controversial of two papers describing how the lethal H5N1 bird flu could be made easier to spread was published Thursday, six months after a scientific advisory board suggested that the papers’ most potentially dangerous data be censored.
The paper, by scientists at Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands, identified five mutations apparently necessary to make the bird flu virus spread easily among ferrets, which catch the same flus that humans do.
The paper’s publication, in the journal Science, ended an acrimonious debate over whether such results should ever be released. Critics said they could help a rogue scientist create a superweapon. Proponents said the world needed to identify dangerous mutations so countermeasures could be designed.
“There is always a risk,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a telephone news conference held by Science. “But I believe the benefits are greater than the risks.”
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Let’s hope Dr. Fauci is right.
Sources:
Waugh, Rob. “Bird flu is ‘only three steps’ from mutating into deadly new form that could cause global pandemic – and scientists are scrambling for new vaccines.” Daily Mail. 11 July 2012. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2172043/Bird-flu-steps-mutating-deadly-new-form-cause-human-pandemic–scientists-scrambling-new-vaccines.html#ixzz20LIk4zJ5). 12 July 2012.
McNeil Jr., Donald G. “Bird Flu Paper Is Published After Debate.” The New York Times. 21 June 2012. (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/health/h5n1-bird-flu-research-that-stoked-fears-is-published.html?_r=1). 12 July 2012.
New ‘Doomsday’ Flu Virus Comes With Instructions
Before I work on those episode reviews of Doomsday Preppers, I’d like to share with you something I find a bit worrisome- the newly-created “Doomsday” flu virus, as some are calling it. I wouldn’t be that concerned if this so-called “superflu” didn’t also come with “instructions.” From Margaret Munro on the National Post (Canada) website this past Wednesday:
One of the most controversial genetically altered microbes ever created was unveiled Wednesday — complete with instructions on how to engineer the hybrid flu virus in the lab.
The details, published in the journal Nature, have been under wraps for months because of fears they might be misused by bioterrorists.
The virus was created by a team led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka at the University of Wisconsin-Madison… Working in a secure lab, the researchers took a gene from H5N1 and gave it to H1N1, the flu virus that caused the human pandemic in 2009. The researchers then played with the hybrid in the lab to create four mutations that are contagious in ferrets, which are considered good proxies for humans.
The researchers “demonstrate that H5N1 viruses do have the potential to cause a human pandemic,” says a report accompanying the study in Nature.
While the strain of H5N1 that’s now circulating isn’t highly-contagious among humans- it is wicked deadly. It’s claimed the mortality rate is 59 percent in officially-confirmed cases.
However, while contagious, the new hybrid flu virus wasn’t found to be lethal in the ferrets (“good proxies for humans”). This was emphasized by flu expert Earl Brown of the University of Ottawa, who is skeptical about a bioterror agent originating from this work. From the article:
Brown said an experienced virologist could take the information in the Nature paper, order up the necessary genes from a scientific supplier, and engineer hybrid flu viruses resembling the ones in the Wisconsin experiment.
“If you put your mind to it you could do it, but you would have to be good,” said Brown. But he added he doubts the virus would be much of a threat since the Wisconsin team found its hybrid virus, though scientifically intriguing, was not lethal when it was transmitted between ferrets…
Brown said he agrees with erring on the side of caution, but noted the research on pathogens is heavily regulated already and scientists have an incentive not to misuse pathogens with the potential to kill them.
Still, I’m concerned about potential “evil geniuses” out there who are in the position to provide their services to the highest bidder (Pakistan’s “Dr. X,” allegedly).
Even more so, influenza virology experts or others that may consumed by ideology- and without the fear of death- who might also be in a position to produce a lethal “Doomsday” flu virus.
One last thing. How come various Canadian mainstream media outlets are running this story while their American counterparts aren’t touching it for the most part? The new hyrbid flu virus was created in Wisconsin, after all. Trying not to “scare” the American public? Some will wonder.
Source:
Munro, Margaret. “‘Doomsday’ flu virus unveiled.” National Post. 2 May 2012. (http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/02/doomsday-flu-virus-unveiled/). 4 May 2012.
Zombie Survival Courses Useful For Preparedness Training?
The zombie craze. It’s been big for a while now. And while I personally don’t see myself becoming the victim of a roving band of animated corpses, I still recognize the value in this new-found interest in all-things-zombie. Discussing a recent zombie-themed pandemic drill held at Elmhurst College in the Chicago suburbs, I wrote back on March 8:
Glad to hear the zombie fad is serving a useful purpose, rather than just supplying the Chiller TV channel with an ample amount of low-budget programming.
Two things. First off, I wasn’t knocking Chiller TV. I find the channel to be a blast to watch late at night/early in the morning. Keep in mind, however, that comes from a USA Network “Up All Night” fan from the eighties/nineties.
Second, like with that pandemic drill, incorporating the zombie theme with preparedness training is proving to be popular with the general public. Case in point, this morning I came across a CNN/Money video segment on the Zombie Survival Course located in South Jersey (about 60 minutes outside of Philadelphia).
“Training for the zombie apocalypse”
CNN Money Video
While the Zombie Survival Course is obviously zombie apocalypse-themed, a quick look at what’s taught reveals its value in preparing for/dealing with other perhaps more-probable SHTF situations. From their website:
A few of the topics that are taught in our courses include:
• Find and create a safe environment and shelter
• Train in self-defense and melee weapons
• Handle and use a crossbow
• Use firearms-handgun, shotgun and rifle (live ammo)
• Stay healthy now and then
• Master the art of leadership
• Collect, prepare and store your supplies
• Acquire transportation (hotwire)
• And much more…
Looking on the Internet I noticed other zombie survival training classes out there these days.
The zombie apocalypse. Not exactly what many would envision TEOTWAWKI will be like. But don’t let that turn you off from training for it, as a number of topics taught could be very useful- especially for those just getting started in prepping/survivalism. And, quite frankly, it sounds like a whole lot of fun as well.
Thoughts So Far About Doomsday Preppers
Regular viewers of the National Geographic Channel’s Doomsday Preppers TV series might have been disappointed that only reruns were shown last night.
I was actually kind of happy to have a week off from writing-up episodes since they can be time-consuming. Not that I don’t like doing reviews of each installment, but it takes some time to put together something that I think might have value for Survival And Prosperity readers.
Seven episodes down. There more to go this season. Plus I see that they’re casting for a second season of the show. Good for Nat Geo Channel and all those associated with the production.
So far, I’m enjoying season 1 of Doomsday Preppers. The preppers featured on the weekly TV series seem not much different than the typical person I myself would run into on a Chicago street, they seem genuinely-concerned by the myriad of man-made and natural threats around them, and unlike many Americans, are actively doing something to mitigate these potential hazards.
Just what are those threats influencing the direction of their prepping?
Economic Crisis/Collapse- 8 “doomsday preppers” identified as primary concern
True Polar Wander (Polar Shift)- 3
EMP/Solar Superstorm- 2
Black Swan Event- 1
Climate Change- 1
Energy Crunch- 1
Food Shortage- 1
Major Earthquake- 1
Multi-Hazard- 1
Overpopulation- 1
Pandemic- 1
Radioactive Fallout- 1
Supervolcano- 1
Some time ago I came across a post on a survivalist board where some guy said something along the lines of he looked forward to TEOTWAWKI so that when he emerged from his bunker well-armed and well-supplied, the remaining women he encountered would not only adore him but “nay, beg me to father their children.” You’ve got to be kidding me (I think he was). Thankfully, none of the preppers featured on the Nat Geo Channel show to-date have come out and said they were looking forward to society’s collapse. Even though certain aspects of modern living might easily get under our skin, who in their right mind would really want such an event to happen? The amount of pain, death, and destruction that would likely accompany such a horrific scenario is beyond the comprehension of most Americans, and is something no sane human being would certainly wish for.
One more thing. A number of “doomsday preppers” indicated on the show that they put a lot of time into prepping. It’s one thing if you’re a beginning prepper and want to get things “up to speed.” However, if you’ve been doing it for a while and have a significant amount of gear and supplies socked away already, I’m wondering if it ain’t “Miller Time” already. At least for a bit. The last thing you probably want is your prepping turning into an obsession. Otherwise, you might just be short-changing yourself when it comes to other aspects of your life. And think about it. If TEOTWAWKI is really coming, wouldn’t you want to experience some things that would likely disappear when society grinds to a halt? I, personally, would like to do some more overseas travel before it gets much more difficult to do.
Anyway, that’s my two cents on Doomsday Preppers to-date.
What do you think about the show?
Signs Of The Time, Part 38
I’m leaving it to my hometown of Chicago to supply the material for today’s installment of “Signs Of The Time.”
Ameet Sachdev wrote on the Chicago Tribune website today:
The Chicago area led the nation in insurance claims related to thefts of copper and other metals, according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau.
In a new report, the Chicago area had 963 metal theft claims from Jan. 1, 2009, through 2011. That’s 42 more claims than were generated in the New York and northern New Jersey region, which ranked No. 2.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
It was only a short time ago Americans would have equated this sort of thing with the Third World.
And now, it’s at my doorstep.
In the west suburbs Tuesday, Elmhurst College held a pandemic drill. But this was no ordinary exercise. The Tribune’s Patrick Rollens reported Wednesday:
Students volunteered to be turned into zombies as part of the Deicke Center for Nursing Education’s Zombie Flu Simulation exercise. The pilot program, developed by two nursing grad students, was designed to immerse students in a real, live, unpredictable pandemic situation. The zombie volunteers were given roles to play, complete with relevant details such as age, chronic ailments, drug allergies — and especially zombie symptoms. Moaning, stiff arms and confusion were encouraged.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Glad to hear the zombie fad is serving a useful purpose, rather than just supplying the Chiller TV channel with an ample amount of low-budget programming.
“Zombie Girl- Creepy Crawler- Music Video)”
(Warning- Violence)
YouTube Video
Sources:
Sachdev, Ameet. “Chicago area leads nation in copper thefts.” Chicago Tribune. 8 Mar. 2012. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-chicago-area-leads-nation-in-copper-thefts-20120308,0,660711.story). 8 Mar. 2012.
Rollens, Patrick W. “Zombies prepare for their close-up at Elmhurst College.” Chicago Tribune. 7 Mar. 2012. (http://triblocal.com/elmhurst/galleries/2012/03/zombies-prepare-for-their-close-up-at-elmhurst-college/#9). 8 Mar. 2012.
TEOTWAWKI Theater: Contagion And Phase 7
(Editor’s note: Does not contain spoilers)
Recently, I had the opportunity to watch two movies that were about an influenza pandemic outbreak. The first one is 2011’s Contagion, starring Matt Damon, Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow (no, this isn’t The Talented Mr. Ripley), and other familiar faces including Laurence Fishburne, Elliott Gould, and Kate Winslet. From the IMDb website:
A thriller centered on the threat posed by a deadly disease and an international team of doctors contracted by the CDC to deal with the outbreak.
“Contagion (2011) Official Exclusive 1080p HD Trailer”
YouTube Video
Now, rather than break down the movie and critique it like I would in an “On TV” series post, I won’t go spoiling it for those who haven’t seen Contagion yet. That goes for the second film as well.
My thoughts about Contagion:
Because the movie did center on an international team of doctors tackling a pandemic threat, it comes as no surprise that this was going to be a big budget production (estimated $60 million) shot all around the world (a good deal of it in the Chicagoland area) and having a sizable cast.
Speaking of the cast, the acting was good. Really good in a number of cases- but what would you expect with names like the ones above? Personally, I thought Kate Winslet was phenomenal in her role as a disease detective.
There are a number of sub-plots going on simultaneously involving the doctors, administrators, individuals, families, and so on. It’s not as confusing as it sounds, though. But with all the side stories going on and familiar Hollywood faces, Contagion started to remind me of 1970s disaster genre films like The Poseidon Adventure and The Towering Inferno.
Like the title suggest, Contagion depicts what the impact of a deadly influenza virus spreading around the world might look like in this day and age, especially in the United States. Dismal to be sure, and no one can be certain just how a modern-day killer pandemic would actually play out, but I just couldn’t shake the feeling while watching the film that what was being portrayed was sanitized. Sure, there’s plenty of illness, death, and heartbreak going on- as one would suspect. But several weeks into the outbreak utilities were still on, vehicles had fuel and were being driven, survivors looked well-fed, hygiene didn’t seem to be a problem, and society looked like it was more or less still functioning- save the large amounts of trash strewn about. The violence that one might think would erupt during such an event was hardly evident (save one scene). Even more so the preparations for protecting against such acts. Perhaps this was done intentionally to obtain the PG-13 rating the film was eventually assigned.
Overall, a good film with good acting. But I suspect that everyday life would be a whole lot grittier should a pandemic like the one portrayed in Contagion take place.
Intermission.
The next pandemic flick I watched was the 2010 Argentinian film Phase 7
, or Fase 7, starring Yayo Guridi, Daniel Hendler, Federico Luppi, and Jazmin Stuart (hat tip Surviving In Argentina blog). From the IMDb website:
Inside a quarantined apartment building a man must protect his pregnant wife from his new neighbors.
“Phase 7- Official US Trailer”
YouTube Video
My thoughts about Phase 7:
Most of the film is in Spanish, so subtitles are used. As with Contagion, I watched the movie on a Netflix DVD, and the subtitles were big and clear, which worked out just fine.
Phase 7 cost 2.5 million Argentine pesos to make- or the equivalent of around $575,000 U.S. dollars. This can be attributed to the film being set mostly in a single apartment building as opposed to all over the world. Furthermore, internationally-acclaimed movie stars weren’t used, although the South American cast of Guridi, Hendler, Luppi, and Stuart proved to be just as talented and were real good in their roles.
The term “phase 7” is related to the World Health Organization’s six pandemic phases. From the WHO website:
Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
The meaning of “phase 7″ becomes more clear as the film progresses.
The movie focuses on a young Argentine couple, Coco and his pregnant wife Pipi, who live in an apartment building in Buenos Aires. An influenza pandemic strikes, and authorities quarantine everyone in the dwelling when one of the residents is suspected of having caught the virus. Isolated from the outside world, Coco, Pipi, their survivalist/conspiracy theorist neighbor Horacio, and other building residents must fend for themselves amidst internal/external threats.
Phase 7 was a real good movie. It painted a gritty picture of what bugging-in in an urban environment could look like should a killer pandemic strike- and then some. I would classify it as part-science fiction, part-horror, with a dash of humor thrown in, believe it or not. I really appreciated the John Carpenter-esque background music. There were plenty of obscenities tossed around, and seeing them spelled out in the subtitles was kind of funny. The film also got gory at times, but it wasn’t overwhelming. It ended up being given an R-rating.
Overall, I liked both Contagion and Phase 7. However, there’s no mistaking Contagion for anything other than a Hollywood production. So much so it seemed a little sanitized for what I would envision society looking like during a pandemic event of that magnitude. Phase 7 is more low-budget, but actually more believable in many ways, if that makes sense. I think Phase 7 would speak to preppers/survivalists more than Contagion.
FIN
On TV: Doomsday Preppers, Episode 4
Getting back on track with my reviews, on Tuesday, February 21, episode 4 of the new National Geographic Channel TV series Doomsday Preppers aired. In “It’s All Gonna Hit The Fan,” three prepper groups were assessed. In order of appearance:
Martin and Sarah Colvill, “mobile preppers”
“I’m preparing to survive the next great depression caused by a worldwide economic collapse”
Donna Nash and family, Alpine, Utah
“I am preparing for a worldwide pandemic”
Kevin O’Brien and family, formerly of Jacksonville, Florida; now somewhere in the Tennessee mountains
“Kevin believes that a 2012 polar shift will cause the earth to move on its axis, resulting in an onslaught of natural disasters… and since Florida is a low-lying coastal peninsula, Kevin believes that his home state will be completely devastated by a polar shift.”
Here are my thoughts about episode 4 of Doomsday Preppers, broken down by prepper group:
Martin and Sarah Colvill
Martin Colvill is a retired police officer who is now a big-rig trucker. After they lost their home to foreclosure, Martin and his wife Sarah, who is battling cancer, live in their truck. As stated above, Martin fears a U.S. economic collapse and the turmoil associated with it, such as hyperinflation. He anticipates delivery trucks having problems making deliveries in such a scenario. Colvill said:
My long term goal is to help America become the nation that it should be again. And the biggest way I can do that is to make a delivery in a safe and timely manner. If I can help other drivers survive, then our nation will be able to rebuild itself. With truckers, we have a chance.
The Colvills prep in the 53 square foot sleeper cabin of their truck. The couple has amassed a 4 to 6 month food supply, which includes dehydrated food. Along with dehydrated food, freeze-dried food is very popular in the prepper/survivalist communities. What’s the difference between the two? Well, from what I understand, dehydrated. or dried food, is made by slowly removing the water from the food through the use of heat. Freeze-dried food is a fresh or cooked food item that’s been frozen- then had the water removed. Each process has it pluses and minuses, so research is recommended before going out and buying food in these forms. One of the advertisers I partner with, Nitro-Pak Preparedness Center (see sidebar ad), offers both dehydrated and freeze-dried foods.
In addition to what they have stored on the truck, the Colvills also have a network of supply caches all over the country. For those readers that have or are planning to acquire a place of refuge, or “bug-out location,” in the event they need to flee from a catastrophe, having hidden stashes of supplies pre-positioned along primary and alternate routes to a BOL is something worth exploring.
When TSHTF, the couple plans on driving to a “safe zone.” However, one of their concerns is not having enough fuel for the truck. Martin said that they do have the ability to siphon fuel, should it come to that. Siphons are inexpensive, and might be a worthy addition to one’s preps.
During those times when they’re not on the road, Martin wants to camouflage the truck. In the episode, the prepper is shown purchasing camouflage netting from an outfitter to spread over his rig. However, once back at the truck he realizes he’s going to need a lot more of it to complete the job. Camouflage nets- and by extension, camo tarps- can be used for a variety of tasks, in both good times and bad. They’re also worth looking into.
In a societal collapse, Colvill fears the bad guys might try to seize his rig and its contents. The retired law enforcement officer pointed out:
Something that most people don’t think about- modern prisons use electronic locks. When the grid goes down, electricity is no longer around, prisons around the nation will suddenly open up. All of a sudden you’re going to have a flood of angry men and women, and they’re going to come flooding out.
The Colvills are subsequently shown training to deal with potential truck hijackers.
At a time when prisons across the county suffer from overcrowding and government budgets keep tightening, the temptation exists to release portions of the prison population back into the general populace before their term is served to completion. California and Illinois come to mind here. From the Los Angeles Times on December 10, 2011:
The early release of inmates in some parts of California is accelerating as officials at county jails struggle to accommodate state prisoners flowing into their facilities…
And from The Herald-News, a Chicago Sun-Times publication serving Will County, Illinois, communities, this appeared on their website yesterday:
The governor also plans to close a super-maximum security prison in downstate Tamms; a second youth-detention center; and six secure halfway houses, the latter of which could result in the early release of as many as 1,000 inmates into the general public, the state government’s largest employee union predicted Tuesday…
Martin Colvill left viewers with something worth thinking about. He said:
A lot of it is left up to us- what choices we make. When I see someone in need, or someone being bullied, I will step in and say, “NO.” And if it means taking a risk, there are those of us that are willing to do that. All that evil needs to propagate is for good men to do nothing.
In the “The Odds” portion of the segment, the show says:
While hyperinflation and severe depressions have occurred in major economies of the past, economists do not believe the United States is currently at risk of such disasters.
Other “doomsday preppers” concerned about hyperinflation include Dennis Evers in episode 2 and Pat and Lynette Brabble in episode 3. As I said in my last review:
Some of the same people who predicted the 2008 global economic crisis are warning that the nation is heading for hyperinflation. Recent examples of such rapid inflation include Argentina a decade ago and Zimbabwe.
As well-known investor Jim Rogers pointed out recently, the Federal Reserve has the printing press going at full-speed these days. And some real smart people who were way ahead of the pack when it came to identifying the housing bubble, the economic crisis, and the “Great Recession” think the United States will eventually opt to print its way out of its massive debt obligations. “Would you like some fries with that $1,000 Big Mac?” That’s what it might come to.
By the way, these same parties also don’t discount the likelihood of a severe depression taking place either. The fact is, most economists and other financial types didn’t see the recent financial carnage coming until it pretty much sat on their faces. Therefore, take what they have to say with a grain of salt.
Donna Nash and family
Donna Nash is prepping for a worldwide pandemic. From the show:
The World Health Organization believes that a devastating influenza pandemic is almost inevitable. Even conservative estimates suggest as many as 100 million people worldwide may be infected, and millions will die.
On Tuesday, the U.S. News & World Report website ran the following:
A paper published Tuesday by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control suggests a new swine flu virus has the potential to cause an outbreak.
The A(H3N2)v swine flu strain that has infected at least 18 Americans since Sept. 2010 has shown the potential for human-to-human transmission. According to the paper, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the H3N2 strains “resemble viruses with pandemic potential.” Terrence Tumpey, one of the authors of the study, says the current seasonal flu vaccine won’t protect against this swine flu strain…
In 2009, we were given a glimpse of how devastating pandemics could be with the spread of H1N1 influenza.
Getting back to the episode, Donna is shown stockpiling supplies and putting together pandemic survival kits. She said she plans on helping immediate neighbors, and footage is shot of her visiting some of them with her kits. I wonder if she gives these away, or charges/asks for donations for them. A little research revealed that the “Pandemic Lady,” as the show called her, is also the owner of Ark Ready, a company which sells preparedness products. Like Tim Ralston in episode 3, Donna is a “prepper entrepreneur.” I have to point out that the “About” section of Ark Ready’s website really grabbed my attention. It says:
As a girl, Ark Ready Founder and Chief Evangelist Donna Nash recalls her mother handing her a canister of mace and telling her to have a nice evening. Nine boyfriends and 16 canisters later, Donna was committed to the importance of preparedness…
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
By the sound of it, I’m guessing those canisters weren’t disposed of because they were past their expiration dates.
Like a number of other “doomsday preppers,” the Nash family realizes the importance of training. In the episode, Donna and her family members are shown conducting a family pandemic drill where they donned their pandemic protection supplies as fast as they could and mustered on the front lawn. The neighbor’s quizzical look was classic.
Another priceless moment was when Donna’s daughter-in-law showed up late to the drill and was quarantined- along with her child- in a room adjacent to the home’s dining area. As the rest of the family sat down to share a meal, the young mother and child could only look on behind transparent plastic sheeting.
Kevin O’Brien and family
Kevin O’Brien, his wife Amie, and their kids are relocating from Jacksonville, Florida, to the mountains of Tennessee because they’re concerned about a coming pole shift which results in Florida becoming submerged underwater. To be clear, what the O’Briens fear isn’t a magnetic pole shift, but rather true polar wander, which is a solid-body rotation of the Earth with respect to its spin axis, causing the geographic locations of the North and South Poles to change, or “wander.” Some theorize that rapid TPW could lead to scores of natural disasters taking place across the world over a small period of time.
After years of research and planning, the O’Brien family are shown moving to their new home in Tennessee: 130 acres located on geologically-stable rock at an elevation of 1,800 feet. Kevin said:
Our land is secure and defendable, there’s a forest and timber there for firewood, we can grow own vegetables there. There’s a source of water. We can raise our own livestock there.
On the design of their future residence, Kevin added:
We’d like to build a really solid home, probably out of reinforced concrete. Bullet-proof, water-proof, fire-proof, earthquake-proof, and ultimately, pole shift-proof.
The O’Briens intend to utilize alternative energy at their new homestead, including solar panels and large black plastic barrels filled with water for passive solar heating. Interesting.
Kevin O’Brien brought an assortment of firearms and 5,000 rounds of ammunition to Tennessee for protecting the retreat and its inhabitants. 5,000 rounds might sound like an awful lot of ammo to some. However, well-known survival blogger and author James Wesley, Rawles recommends 2,000 rounds per battle rifle, 500 per hunting rifle, 800 per primary handgun, 2,000 per .22 rimfire, and 500 per riot gun in his 2009 book How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It. And those are minimum recommendations.
In “The Odds” portion of this segment, the show said:
There is some scientific evidence that a true pole shift occurred 800 million years ago when the earth’s land masses formed a super-continent. But scientists believe that because our continents are now separated, such an event is almost geologically-impossible.
What they might be referring to is a study in which the magnetic composition of ancient sediments found in the remote Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard was analyzed by Dr. Adam Maloof of Princeton University. From an accompanying news release dated August 25, 2006:
“If a true polar wander event has occurred in our planet’s history, it’s likely been when the continents formed a single mass on one side of the Earth,” he said. “We don’t expect there to be another event in the foreseeable future, though. The Earth’s surface is pretty well balanced today.”
Another good episode. More ideas worth looking into. Again, I wish all these prepper groups success in their endeavors.
New episodes of Doomsday Preppers air on the National Geographic Channel Tuesday nights at 9 PM Eastern/Pacific Time. For more information, go to the Nat Geo Channel website here.
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