pensions
City Of Chicago On Review For ‘Possible Downgrade’ By Moody’s
“We still have a very strong bond rating. Our fiscal position is getting better every year and we are aggressively managing our liabilities and obligations.”
-City of Chicago Comptroller Amer Ahmad, July 20, 2012, as noted in a July 22, 2012, Chicago Sun-Times article
I’ve been warning Survival And Prosperity readers for some time that the City of Chicago’s finances are not as peachy keen as City Hall would like outsiders to believe.
So much so, the City’s credit rating is on review for a possible downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. From the Moody’s website earlier today:
Moody’s has announced its final approach to the way it will analyze and adjust pension liabilities as part of its credit analysis of state and local governments. These changes reflect the rating agency’s view that pension obligations are a significant source of credit pressure for governments and warrant a more conservative view of the potential size of the obligations. As a result of this new approach, Moody’s has also placed the general obligation ratings of the cities of Chicago, Cincinnati, Minneapolis, and Portland, OR, and of 25 other US local governments and school districts on review for possible downgrade. The entities whose ratings have been placed on review have large adjusted net pension liabilities relative to their rating category…
Moody’s rates over 8,000 local governments in the United States. Less than 1% of those with general obligation or equivalent ratings have been placed under review because of the new pension adjustments.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Great. Chicago is in another “select group” it really doesn’t want to belong to these days.
You can read the entire announcement on the Moody’s website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Illinois Public Pension Funding Gap Now Over $100 Billion?
It’s been depressing to watch the public pension funding gap keep growing here in Illinois.
The last time I blogged about the subject (March 4), the unfunded debt to the five state pension systems amounted to $96.8 billion.
When I first reported on the public pension crisis on April 28, 2011, state employee pensions were underfunded by more than $80 billion.
And this weekend, I saw on the Crain’s Chicago Business website that the pension shortfall has now passed the $100 billion mark. Paul Merrion wrote this weekend:
Sometime this month, Illinois probably exceeded $100 billion in pension debt, a sorry milestone in the state’s long slog to fiscal hell.
Illinois would be only the second state to reach the 12-digit mark. But California, the previous epic fail, has a much larger tax base and is on the mend.
Pension statistics tend to make eyes glaze over, and the $100 billion moment is an unofficial, back-of-the-envelope calculation. But it’s an undeniably big and potentially symbolic number as state legislators wrestle with the shortfall in money owed to current and future retired teachers, judges, state workers and even lawmakers themselves.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
“A sorry milestone in the state’s long slog to fiscal hell.”
Nicely-worded. And something the state’s residents really need to digest, seeing that “every man, woman and child living in Illinois” is on the hook for $7,767 for this debt according to Merrion.
I’ll tell you one thing. Hearing this latest fiscal faux pas makes me question the wisdom of buying a home in the state this spring considering what looks to be coming down the pipeline. Which sucks, because rents are astronomical for suitable property in the areas where my girlfriend and I prefer to live.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Merrion, Paul. “Illinois hits a sorry milestone.” Crain’s Chicago Business. 25 Mar. 2013. (http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130323/ISSUE01/303239976/illinois-hits-a-sorry-milestone). 25 March. 2013.
Illinois Governor’s Spokesperson: ‘We’re Facing The Worst Recession Since The Great Depression’
Reading the Chicago Tribune website last night I saw that Governor Pat Quinn will be proposing a $30 billion-plus budget this week for the State of Illinois.
The Tribune’s Ray Long provided some of the latest figures showing just how precarious the state’s financial situation really is these days:
• $96.8 billion in unfunded debt to five state pension systems
• $9.7 billion in unpaid bills
• 8.7 percent unemployment in December, almost a percentage point higher than the national unemployment rate
• $6.1 billion annual pension payment in the next budget year- $900 million more than in the current one
One word comes to mind. Fugly.
Then there’s this from Long’s piece:
“When you’re the chief executive, you face challenges from the outside that are not of your making,” said Quinn spokeswoman Brooke Anderson. “The governor’s job is to control the things he can and manage the elements that are outside his control. But I’d say that we’ve been in a perfect storm since the moment Gov. Quinn got here. We’re facing the worst recession since the Great Depression, decades of financial mismanagement that has been culminating in the pension crisis and unpaid bills. And you have to deal with that.”
“We’re facing the worst recession since the Great Depression”
What about that economic recovery Governor Quinn said was taking place here in the “Land of Lincoln?” From a February 6 article on the Tribune website:
“Do we want, in the years to come, a prosperous Illinois where working people continue to have good jobs, where businesses thrive, and where all our children have a world-class education?” Quinn told the House and Senate. “Or do we want to stop the progress and watch our economic recovery stall?”
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Let me guess. That bit about the recession is only the opinion of Quinn’s “mouthpiece.” And she’s trying to shield her boss from some blame.
Fair enough. But the thing is, Ms. Anderson- either knowingly or unknowingly- is on to something. We may not technically be in a recession these days, but for many Illinois residents it probably doesn’t feel like much of a recovery either.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Long, Ray. “Gov. Pat Quinn to unveil $30 billion-plus Illinois budget.” Chicago Tribune. 3 Mar. 2013. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-quinn-budget-20130304,0,7431041,full.story). 3 Mar. 2013.
Garcia, Monique, Long, Ray, and Guerrero, Rafael. “Quinn wants minimum wage hike, assault weapons ban.” Chicago Tribune. 6 Feb. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-02-06/news/chi-quinn-to-call-for-minimum-wage-increase-to-10-an-hour-20130206_1_assault-weapons-minimum-wage-pat-quinn-today). 3 Mar. 2013.
Illinois Could Have Nearly $22 Billion In Unpaid Bills By FY 2018
It’s been a while since I last blogged about the Civic Federation, an independent, non-partisan government research organization that provides analysis and recommendations on government finance issues for the Chicago region and State of Illinois. In late September 2011, the Chicago-based organization had just released its analysis of the enacted FY 2012 State of Illinois budget, and noted the financially-challenged state was expected to end the year with over $8 billion in unpaid bills from vendors, local governments, and others (related to business tax refunds, employee and retiree health care and Medicaid).
Over $8 billion in unpaid bills.
Fast forward to today. From a Civic Federation press release Monday:
Illinois’ Unpaid Bill Backlog Projected to Reach $22 Billion by FY2018
State urgently needs long-term plan to address rising pension and Medicaid costs, loss of income tax revenues
(CHICAGO) – An analysis released today by the Civic Federation’s Institute for Illinois’ Fiscal Sustainability shows the State of Illinois is on track to accumulate nearly $22 billion in unpaid bills by FY2018 unless action is taken to curb rising pension costs and plan for increases in the Medicaid program…
“Nearly $22 billion in unpaid bills.”
Illinois residents, get ready to bust out your wallets.
You can read the entire Civic Federation press release here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Chicago Sees ‘Most Violent January In More Than A Decade’
I have a pretty good idea what a number of you will be thinking as you read this post:
How’s that gun “control” working out for you, Chicago?
From John Byrne, David Heinzmann, and Bob Secter on the Chicago Tribune website late last night:
Following the most violent January in more than a decade and the high-profile slaying of a 15-year-old high school band majorette, Mayor Rahm Emanuel and his police chief moved closer than ever Thursday to reintroducing the very police strategy they dumped when they took over in 2011.
Emanuel said he would move 200 officers off desk duty to bolster the size of roving teams aimed at suppressing outbreaks of murderous violence that have been on the rise in the city for more than a year.
“The most violent January in more than a decade.”
According to the Crime in Chicago blog yesterday, 44 people were murdered and 160 were shot in the city last month.
Now, back on New Year’s Eve, I noted that at the end of a year in which Chicago surpassed 500 murders (534 according to CIC), the number of beat cops was less than before Rahm Emanuel became mayor.
So, why not just hire more police officers then?
Byrne, Heinzmann, and Secter (sounds like a law firm) added:
The head of the police union said retirements and a lack of new hiring amid tight budget years has reduced the size of the force well below what is needed to keep the streets safe.
“No matter how City Hall slices the numbers or spins this issue, the fact remains we have less officers on the street now than when the mayor was elected,” said Mike Shields, head of the Fraternal Order of Police.
At the news conference announcing his new plans, Emanuel said “you don’t ask the taxpayers to pay for additional cops until you make sure you’re using every cop on the payroll today effectively.”
Personally, I think City Hall is well-aware of the significant, fast-approaching fiscal challenges that are in store for Chicago, so basically “what you see is what you get” could be the case for Chicago Police Department manpower. As things stand, taxes will be going up- significantly- but one has to wonder how much of it will be earmarked for the following, which I blogged about back on August 1:
The “Windy City” has a $25 billion pension crisis that will require property taxes to be doubled by 2015 (from an anticipated $476 million this year to $1.2 billion in 2015) if no changes are made to both retirement benefits and City of Chicago employee contributions.
Remember that $2.98 billion the city received when the Chicago Skyway and parking meters were privatized under former Mayor Richard M. Daley? Only $623 million remains.
The analysis comes on the heels of year-end audit findings that show Chicago is in the midst of a debt crisis, adding $465 million of debt in 2011 to a total long-term debt that’s sitting at just over $27 billion.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Chicagoans- be prepared to bust out those wallets very shortly.
To wrap things up, one sentence in that Tribune piece really stood out for me. Byrne, Heinzmann, and Secter wrote:
But the events of this week show that tragedy can strike anywhere, and calibrating how and where to stretch those resources is difficult in a city with a deeply entrenched culture of violence.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
“Culture of violence?”
Sounds like Second City Cop wasn’t too far off the mark with that “Culture of Death” comment the other day.
Watch your six, Chicago.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Byrne, John, Heinzmann, David and Secter, Bob. “Street violence spurs shift in police strategy.” Chicago Tribune. 31 Jan. 2013. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-emanuel-mccarthy-officers-reassigned-20130201,0,7276684,full.story). 1 Feb. 2013.
Illinois’ Total Unfunded Liabilities: $275 Billion
The following bit about Illinois’ total unfunded liabilities from a January 28 Investor’s Business Daily editorial was so depressing to read that I originally planned to blog about it much earlier this morning- but needed to step away. From the IBD website:
A recent release by the Illinois Policy Institute shows this [$96.8 billion unfunded debt to five state pension systems] is only the tip of the iceberg and when you add in other liabilities such as $54 billion in unfunded liabilities for retiree health insurance and $15 billion in pension bonds that Gov. Pat Quinn and his immediate predecessor, former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, issued to avoid pension reform, Illinois’ total unfunded liabilities amount to $275 billion, or $58,000 in debt for each and every household in the state.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
So what’s it going to be, Illinois? Since a booming economy seems unlikely to return anytime soon, will the Democrat-dominated Illinois General Assembly finally enact significant spending cuts? Raise fees and taxes through the roof? Throw public sector retirees “under the bus?”
They’re going to have to do something real quick.
Or watch the whole thing unravel.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
“Obama’s Illinois Downgrade Makes It America’s Greece.” Investor’s Business Daily. 28 Jan. 2013. (http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/012813-642237-credit-downgrade-illinois-standard-poors-worst.htm). 31 Jan. 2013.
Labor Minister: France ‘Is A Totally Bankrupt State’
Speaking of France, how is the Socialist-led European state faring these days?
Not so great, it seems.
In fact, a pretty reliable source claims they’re bankrupt.
Graham Ruddick reported on The Telegraph (UK) website Monday:
Michel Sapin made the gaffe in a radio interview, which left French President Francois Hollande battling to undo the potential reputational damage.
“There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,” Mr Sapin said. “That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective.”
The comments came as President Hollande attempts to improve the image of the French economy after pledging to reduce the country’s deficit by cutting spending by €60bn (£51.5bn) over the next five years and increasing taxes by €20bn.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
As I mentioned earlier tonight, some claim President Obama desires French-style Socialism for the United States.
If France’s economy truly is in shambles, and the U.S. President really wants to emulate them, well- here’s a glimpse of what Americans could expect. From an Investor’s Business Daily editorial yesterday:
Fresh after May 2012′s election, President Francois Hollande wasted no time raising government spending, hiking tax rates to 75% on those above $1.3 million in income, hiring 60,000 bureaucrats, cutting the retirement age for public pensions to 60 and undoing fiscal reforms by his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy. During his campaign, Hollande declared himself “the enemy of finance.” France today proves it…
Public debt has soared from 68% of GDP in 2008 to 90% in 2012, joblessness has hit 11%, and GDP growth of its $2.8 trillion economy is projected in 2013 at zero.
Tax hikes have driven the richest taxpayers from the country, making the $43 billion budget hole unlikely to be plugged by Hollande’s $26 billion tax hike. Meanwhile, a squeeze on business creates rising numbers of unemployed, who in turn demand state services.
Time will tell how this will all work out for the Socialists in France. But if history rhymes once again, keep in mind something former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said in a 1976 interview:
Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money. It’s quite a characteristic of them. They then start to nationalise everything, and people just do not like more and more nationalisation, and they’re now trying to control everything by other means. They’re progressively reducing the choice available to ordinary people.
Any of this sound familiar?
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Ruddick, Graham. “France ‘totally bankrupt’, says labour minister Michel Sapin.” The Telegraph. 28 Jan. 2013. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9832845/France-totally-bankrupt-says-labour-minister-Michel-Sapin.html). 30 Jan. 2013.
“Like The Bourbons, France’s Socialists Have Learned Nothing, Forgotten Nothing.” Investor’s Business Daily. 29 Jan. 2013. (http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/012913-642388-france-socialist-model-is-same-old-recipe-for-bankruptcy.htm). 30 Jan. 2013.
Illinois Bond Issue Halted Due To Credit Concerns
Today, residents of the state of Illinois saw the repercussions of having $8 billion of unpaid bills, a $96.8 billion pension funding gap, and falling credit ratings. Karen Pierog reported on the Reuters website:
Illinois yanked a $500 million general obligation bond issue slated for Wednesday because of credit concerns that could boost its borrowing costs, in the latest financial blow to the state, which has failed to fix its bloated public pensions.
Investment banks that planned to bid on the debt indicated investors would demand higher yields on the 25-year bonds, said John Sinsheimer, Illinois’ capital markets director.
“We were getting indications of higher spreads than we were anticipating,” said Sinsheimer, who declined to discuss specific spread levels. “We felt it was prudent to pull the deal for the time being.”
(Editor’s notes: Italics added for emphasis)
Pierog pointed out:
Illinois is already faced with the highest spreads – 137 basis points in the latest week – over Municipal Market Data’s benchmark triple-A scale among states and cities tracked by MMD, a unit of Thomson Reuters.
Over the weekend, I noted Standard & Poor’s downgraded the State of Illinois on Friday to an “A-” rating with a negative outlook- last among all 50 states. I added that among other major credit rating agencies, Moody’s also ranks Illinois last of all the U.S. states and Fitch ranks it 49th but on watch for a possible downgrade.
As for Illinois taxpayers? They may have to pay tens of millions of dollars more in interest when the state looks to borrow more money- like what almost happened today.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Pierog, Karen. “UPDATE 2-Illinois pulls $500 mln bond sale amid credit concerns.” Reuters. 30 Jan 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/illinois-bonds-idUSL1N0AZ6TQ20130130). 30 Jan. 2013.
S&P Downgrades Illinois Credit Rating To Worst In Nation
When I heard a major credit rating agency had downgraded Illinois Friday, the term “death spiral state” quickly came to mind.
And then my thoughts turned to the tens of millions of dollars Illinois taxpayers might be on the hook for down the road.
Ray Long and Monique Garcia reported on the Chicago Tribune website Friday:
Illinois fell to the bottom of all 50 states in the rankings of a major credit ratings agency Friday following the failure of Gov. Pat Quinn and lawmakers to fix the state’s hemorrhaging pension system during this month’s lame-duck session.
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service downgraded Illinois in what is the latest fallout over the $96.8 billion debt to five state pension systems. The New York rating firm’s ranking signaled taxpayers may pay tens of millions of dollars more in interest when the state borrows money for roads and other projects.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Illinois now has an “A-” rating with a negative outlook from S&P. Among other major credit rating agencies, Moody’s ranks Illinois last among the 50 states and Fitch ranks it 49th but on watch for a possible downgrade.
Regarding the state’s huge pension funding gap, Mark Peters wrote on the Wall Street Journal website Friday:
S&P estimates the pension system in the coming year will see assets fall to 39% of future obligations.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Hardly any talk about the crisis in the local mainstream media outlets this weekend. Amazing. I can’t understand why more Illinois residents aren’t up in arms over this humongous financial mess the state is in.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Garcia, Monique and Long, Ray. “Illinois credit rating sinks to worst in nation.” Chicago Tribune. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-25/news/chi-illinois-credit-rating-sinks-to-worst-in-nation-20130125_1_action-on-pension-reform-robin-prunty-illinois-credit). 27 Jan. 2013.
Peters, Mark. “S&P Cuts Illinois Credit Rating.” Wall Street Journal. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324539304578264293106044944.html). 27 Jan. 2013.
Motorola CEO: Illinois ‘Asleep At The Switch, And The Day Of Reckoning Will Come’
You know the state of Illinois has real fiscal challenges when a member of the U.S. President’s Management Advisory Board (PMAB) says that’s the case. Greg Brown, President and CEO of Schaumburg-based Motorola Solutions, spoke to Crain’s Chicago Business last week and said the following about his company’s relationship to the Midwestern state:
Illinois remains front and center for us for a variety of reasons: incumbency, skills that are resident, our existing footprint. It’s Illinois’ to lose, but Illinois is on a path to lose it. The state of Illinois is asleep at the switch, and the day of reckoning will come. You can’t have the state’s fiscal house being what it is and be able to attract capital. If Illinois kicks the can and stays in a four-corner offense, then capital will move out of state, including ours. I’ve had governors of Florida and Michigan proactively call me and say: “Would you consider moving a division, opening a plant? Would you consider moving R&D here? Would you deploy a sales division here?” Illinois doesn’t think like that. It needs a complete overhaul. It needs to happen soon.
Judging by the continued inaction in Springfield (seat of Illinois government) on issues of significant fiscal importance to the state and its 12.9 million residents, something tells me that can will keep being kicked down the road until the “day of reckoning” Brown talked about finally arrives.
In the meantime, the State of Illinois continues to languish.
Consider what Ted Dabrowski, Vice President of Policy at the Illinois Policy Institute, wrote back on November 28 on the organization’s website:
Today, Illinois still has more than $9 billion in unpaid bills. The Legislature continues to run structural deficits, appropriating more funds than the revenues it receives. The state’s pension systems are more than $200 billion in the hole and facing insolvency. And the state has been downgraded 10 times by the three major rating agencies since Gov. Quinn took office.
I am truly concerned about what lies in store for the “Land of Lincoln” going forward.
Sources:
Pletz, John. “Motorola’s CEO on taxes, tablets and why Illinois is dying.” Crain’s Chicago Business. 24 Dec. 2012. (http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20121222/ISSUE01/312229987/motorolas-ceo-on-taxes-tablets-and-why-illinois-is-dying). 26 Dec. 2012.
Dabrowski, Ted. “Forget reform: Illinois legislators want to borrow $4 billion.” Illinois Policy Institute. 28 Nov. 2012. (http://illinoispolicy.org/blog/blog.asp?ArticleSource=5283). 26 Dec. 2012.
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