Peter Schiff
CNBC Tries Calling Out Peter Schiff Over Gold Price
Anyone remember those “Peter Schiff Was Right” YouTube.com videos that went viral right after the U.S. housing bubble popped and the global economic crisis really reared its ugly head in the fall of 2008?
Here’s probably the most popular one out there.
Well, I’m convinced a clip or more of Thursday’s installment of the CNBC show Futures Now, hosted by CNBC Reporter Jackie DeAngelis, will be included in a future “Peter Schiff Was Right About Gold” YouTube video. From an exchange between DeAngelis and the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital:
SCHIFF: You’re talking about investors’ demand for gold going down. I would disagree. Because I own a gold company too, Euro Pacific Precious Metals. And we’ve never had more demand from our clients in the history of my company than we have now. I would say speculators, speculative demand, is what went down. I think a lot of people who came late to the gold rally were speculating in gold. They were simply buying it because the price was rising. They wanted to hop on that train. They use ETFs. They use futures markets. So I think the speculators have been flushed from the market in this pullback. But the investors- they’re still there. Because all of the reasons they’ve been buying gold for the past 10 or 12 years- those reasons have never been stronger. And so investor demand continues. We’ve flushed away the speculative demand. But I think the speculators will come back in the next rally.
DEANGELIS: Alright. Well, Peter, let’s step back for a second because you kind of jumped in there on the conversation we were having and I definitely appreciate your opinion on that. But I want to talk about the gold price that we’re looking at right now. $1,383.60. That is the price that we’re looking at at this point. We’ve had you on the show multiple times before, you said that gold was going to skyrocket, you say it’s going to be a bumpy ride and you can’t tell us exactly how we’re going to get there. But tell me today, Peter, why have you gotten it wrong?
(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)
SCHIFF: I don’t think I have gotten it wrong. You just said I said it would be a bumpy ride. Look, it’s been bumpy, but I’ve been on this ride since gold was under $300 an ounce. It’s not like gold is down from that point. It’s off its highs. But I think what’s going on right now is you’ve got a false narrative out there that the U.S. economy is improving. It’s not. All the data points have been negative. A deluge of negative data came out today. The only evidence of a rebounding economy, is the stock market going up, or the real estate market going up. But that’s not because the economy is sound. That’s because of all the cheap money created by the Fed. That’s the same reason why stock and real estate prices were going up in 2006 or 2007. It is a bubble. The economy, meanwhile, is actually getting worse. And all this talk about the Fed getting ready to take away the punch bowl is all talk. They’re going to spike it even more. They’re going to up the size of QE. But people who are speculating of an early end are getting it wrong. Gold is going through a correction. All bull markets have a correction. It is a buying opportunity.
“Schiff: Gold a Generational Buy”
CNBC Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff Warns Of ‘Phony Jobs In A Phony Economy’
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.”
-U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 3, 2013
Peter Schiff, the CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital who correctly called the U.S. housing bust and “Panic of ’08,” was critical of the latest U.S. jobs report in his latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. Schiff pointed out:
The fact of the matter is, all of the jobs that were created, the reason they were created was because of QE. QE is the only reason we’re creating these jobs. And if the Fed ever were to taper it back, the jobs would disappear. As a matter of fact, the Fed is going to have to up the size of the QE to sustain these jobs. Just like with any drug, you develop a tolerance. And so the more you use, the more you have to use. So we’re going to need ever-increasing doses of QE to maintain these phony jobs.
Meanwhile, the data itself, was not even good.
(Editor’s note: Schiff’s look of disgust after saying this= priceless)
I mean, sure, it beat expectations. Because the bar had been lowered so much. It only created 165,000 jobs. All of those jobs were in the service sector. We didn’t create one manufacturing job. Zero. So we’re not creating the jobs that make us richer. We’re creating the jobs that are actually going to drain our wealth because we’re borrowing money to create them…
The bottom line is the media is going to cover this- the unemployment rate has gone down to 7.5 percent. It’s like a four-year low. We’re creating jobs. They’re going to say that things are getting better. They’re not. They’re not getting better, they’re getting worse. Government statistics don’t tell the whole story. In many cases, they tell the wrong story. And eventually, of course, when the music does stop, these jobs are going to disappear. Along with the phony economic growth that went along with it. One way or another, it’s going to happen.
“Jobs And Stocks — Behind The Numbers Lurks A Bubble Disguised As A Recovery”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Redfin CEO Identifies Most- And Least-Vulnerable Metro Housing Markets To Experience Another Bubble
Last week in my Sunday paper, I spotted yet another great article by Chicago Tribune real estate reporter Mary Umberger. It was an interview with Glenn Kelman, chief executive officer of Redfin, a real estate brokerage doing business in 20 U.S. housing markets.
Apparently, Redfin recently ranked 15 major metropolitan areas it perceived as most- and least-vulnerable to experiencing another housing bubble. Kelman told Umberger:
We’ve looked at several factors: income to home-price ratios, ratios of sale price to listing price, the frequency of flips (resales within 18 months of purchase), incidences of bidding wars, and rates of going under contract within two weeks of listing.
From looking at those things, we think there are four markets that are in mini-bubble territory, at risk of price correction: Washington, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco.
At the other end of the list, the least likely to see a correction is Atlanta, followed closely by Chicago, Las Vegas and Dallas.
A new housing bubble. Something I’m starting to hear more of these days.
Anyone remember “crash prophet” Peter Schiff’s warning from last September? I blogged on September 18, 2012:
In his September 14 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, explained to viewers what QE3 was really about:
This is the plan that Ben Bernanke has. Ben Bernanke’s plan to revive the U.S. economy, and create jobs, is to inflate another housing bubble. That’s it. That’s what the Fed’s got. That’s what it came up with. As if the last housing bubble worked out so well for the economy, that the Fed wants an encore.
You can read Umberger’s entire exchange with Redfin’s Kelman on the Tribune website here. Interesting stuff.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Peter Schiff On GDP Calculation ‘Makeover,’ Delaying Our ‘Day Of Reckoning,’ And Gold Speculators
Lots of catching up going on around here today. I just got finished watching Peter Schiff’s latest entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital zeroed-in on the “makeover” in calculating U.S. gross domestic product, delaying our “financial reckoning day,” and the situation small speculators may find themselves in after helping fuel gold’s price drop the other week. Regarding GDP, Schiff pointed out the following in yesterday’s video blog post:
When the government gets around to delivering the news for the second quarter, the U.S. economy is going to be quite a bit larger than it was during the fourth quarter. Now, it’s not going to be because we’re actually more productive, it’s because the government is going to launch a brand new methodology for computing the GDP. They’re going to change the way they’ve been doing it all these years. And they’re going to start to include a bunch of things that in the past, they never included. They’re going to include things that no other country includes when they calculate their GDP. And as a result of this makeover, these brand new additions, I think instantaneously the U.S. economy is going to be 3 percent larger. That’s a big number. It’s like 4 or 500 billion dollars of GDP is going to be conjured out of thin air just based on the change in the methodology for computating GDP.
You know, this is what the government does. They change the way they compute statistics. Unemployment’s too high? Okay, we’ll calculate it another way. Now it’s not as high. Inflation’s too high? Wait a minute, let’s find another way to calculate the inflation rate. Oh look, we’ve solved the inflation problem- there’s not that much inflation.
Now, the government wants the economy to appear bigger. Why? Well, because it makes the debt-to-GDP look smaller. A lot of people are talking about debt-to-GDP now. Well, if they can make the GDP larger by figuring out another way to calculate it, well now they can make that ratio appear better.
Also, people are talking about government spending as a share of GDP. Okay, let’s make the GDP larger, and that means that government spending has now come down as a share of this larger number.
Schiff, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing bust and “Panic of ’08,” had this to say about the coming U.S. financial crash:
The fact of the matter is, governments are borrowing too much, they’re printing too much, they’re spending too much, and it’s all in a vain attempt to try to artificially stimulate an economy that’s been overstimulated, and to delay the “day of reckoning.” And the problem is, the longer they delay it, the more we have to reckon with. And, ultimately, we’ve going to have to pay a huge price for the fact that we didn’t deal with these problems sooner, rather than later.
“Slow ‘growth’,GDP makeover, Keynesians demand more debt and inflation”
YouTube Video
Finally, Schiff, who’s also the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, talked about gold’s recent price drop, who he thought was behind it, and what may be in store for them. From the video post:
I think the major selling in the metals market has come from the small speculator that trades on the futures market, that trades on the ETF. That’s where all the selling has been. The small speculators. I don’t think the larger investors have cashed in. They’re probably holding on. And the real buyers, the buyers in the physical market- who are not just trying to jump on a moving train to try and catch a small move because they want to get in on something that’s going up- the physical demand has been ongoing and consistent for years. But you have had some of the “Johnny Come Lately” hot money among smaller speculators. They’ve jumped on, they’re the ones that have sold, they cashed out. In fact, I think you have a lot of small speculators that are now short gold, that sold into the lows, and that are holding onto these positions with losses. And we’ll see how long they can hold those losses as the price moves higher and we turn up the heat. I think a lot of those people that were quick to short the market are going to end up covering at much higher prices.
Good insights as usual from this “crash prophet.”
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Peter Schiff: U.S. Will Experience Cyprus ‘Bail-In’
Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist, talked about the proposed Cyprus “bail-in” despite Cyrpiot bank accounts having deposit insurance in his March 18 entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog. Schiff, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis and U.S. housing bust, warned viewers:
You know, ultimately, the same thing is going to happen in the United States. We’ve got deposit insurance here in America. But eventually, we’re going to be faced with a similar problem. When interest rates rise, and big banks fail, the FDIC doesn’t have the money for a bailout. And, if the Fed is tightening, the Treasury doesn’t have the money to bail anybody out. So, we’re going to be in the same situation.
Schiff sees the Cyprus fiasco as being bullish for gold. He added yesterday:
I think, first of all, that this is a very positive development for gold. Now, the reason for that is that bank deposits are at risk. And if you think your money is at risk in a bank and you pull it out, what are you going to do with it? Well, putting it in gold is a great alternative. In fact, if you had euros deposited in a Cyprus bank, now you’ve lost about 10 percent, close to 10 percent of the value of those deposits, or 10 percent of your euros. But if you had gold in a safety deposit box in a Cyprus bank, you haven’t lost an ounce. So the people who have gold are whole, and those who have euros, or other currencies you had on deposit, but they’ve had a loss. So this highlights the safe haven aspect of gold.
“Insured Bank Deposits At Risk, America Burns While Obama Golfs”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
David Rosenberg: Gold Heading To $3,000 An Ounce
I haven’t talked about David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist and Strategist too much on this blog. But back when I was running Boom2Bust.com, I would mention him on a regular basis. On February 9, 2011, I wrote:
For those of you not familiar with Mr. Rosenberg, back in 2007 he was one of the first economists to warn investors of the “Great Recession.” I started following Rosenberg when he was still Chief North American Economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in New York. CNN Money said this of the economist last year:
Rosenberg, who left an eight-year career at Merrill Lynch to become chief economist at Gluskin Sheff last May, is one of Wall Street’s best-regarded financial experts. His on-the-ball predictions have landed him on Institutional Investors’ list of All-Star researchers for years.
Yep. Rosenberg was one of the original “crash prophets.”
And these days, he’s really bullish on gold.
Jonathan Burton posted the following on MarketWatch’s blog The Tell last night:
Forget the Dow. If you really want to make some money, buy gold, says David Rosenberg. Gold is heading to $3,000 an ounce, the chief economist & strategist at investment firm Gluskin Sheff + Associates said Tuesday in a speech at a CFA Institute of Chicago conference.
$3,000 an ounce. Significantly higher from where his old employers see the yellow metal going in the next couple years. Jan Harvey reported on the Reuters website yesterday:
Even Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which remains broadly positive on gold, cut its forecasts this week. While still expecting prices to rise strongly next year to an average of $1,838 an ounce, it sees prices turning lower in 2015.
“The importance of investors, coupled with the lack of investor buying, has led to concerns that non-commercial market participants in general have reassessed the rationale of holding gold in a portfolio,” the bank said, reducing its 2013 and 2014 forecasts and cutting its 2015 price view to $1,675 from $1,900.
Still, there’s a reason why Rosenberg was the only economist recognized for his accurate economic projections in Fortune Magazine’s “Best and Worst of Wall Street 2011” and was ranked most accurate forecaster for 2011 by MSNBC. Back in that February 2011 post of mine I called attention to what I called a “must-read” article by him in the Globe and Mail (Canada) in which he wrote:
The United States is in a radical money-easing environment, in which the Fed is keeping interest rates artificially low while pumping money into the economy. This type of policy breeds speculative rallies. It inevitably results in boom-bust cycles such as the ones we saw in 1999-2002, 2006-09 and today. This is no time for short memories.
At best, the Fed has managed to create an illusion of prosperity, but it won’t last. And that should surprise no one who has followed the Fed’s activities over the past couple of years.
“Keeping interest rates artificially low.” “Pumping money into the economy.” “Speculative rallies.”
Any of this sound familiar to readers? It should, as other more-visible “prophets” (Faber, Rogers, Schiff, to name a few) are warning about such events now in 2013.
I leave you with this from Rosenberg’s Globe and Mail piece:
This is no time for short memories.
You can read Burton’s entire Rosenberg gold price call post on The Tell here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sources:
Harvey, Jan. “More banks peel away from bullish consensus on gold.” Reuters. 5 Mar. 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/05/gold-forecasts-idUSL6N0BXJ1620130305). 6 Mar. 2013.
Rosenberg, David. “Fed’s illusion of prosperity bound to vanish.” Globe and Mail. 8 Feb. 2011. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/feds-illusion-of-prosperity-bound-to-vanish/article1899546/). 6 Mar. 2013.
Peter Schiff: Fed Creating Another Housing Bubble, ‘Day Of Reckoning’ Early In Obama’s Second Term
First it was “crash prophet” Jeremy Grantham warning:
Courtesy of the above Fed policy, all global assets are once again becoming overpriced.
Now, Peter Schiff is saying the same about housing.
And that America’s “day of reckoning” is right around the bend.
From a March 1 entry posted on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog:
The Fed influenced the housing market during the bubble predominantly by influencing the short end, making it easier for people to take out ARMs. Today, the Fed is influencing the housing market not predominantly by influencing adjustable rate mortgages, but by outright buying 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to drive mortgage interest rates down to record lows. But in both cases, it was the Fed’s interference that inflated the prices, inflated the bubbles, and there’s going to be a disastrous consequence when this bubble bursts. Although this bubble, is not going to be, I think, as large as the previous bubble. I think the consequences will be much bigger, as the Fed is not going to succeed in elevating home prices. But what they are succeeding at doing is transferring significant percentages of bad mortgages from the private sector to the Federal Reserve. In fact, the federal government has never been more involved in the housing market than it is today. Not only does the government insure over 90 percent of the mortgages, through the FHA, through Fannie, and Freddie. But now the government owns the mortgages. The Federal Reserve is financing them. The Federal Reserve is buying $45 billion worth of mortgages every month. So the government is the housing market…
Now President Obama, we’s got a bigger bubble going during his presidency, and he ain’t getting out of Dodge either. Only this time, I think, the bubble is going to burst not late in his second term, but early. And the difference is going to be- there are no more bailouts. This is the last bubble. This is the biggest bubble. In my book, The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy: How to Save Yourself and Your Country
, I call it the “government bubble.” That’s what we have. This is the final bubble, and there is no bailout. We’re finally going to have to deal with the consequences of our profligacy. And the problem is, because we’ve kicked the can down the road for so long, right? We’ve papered it over with so much inflation, that the problems have gotten that much worse, which means when we finally are forced to confront them. And again, we’re going to be forced to do it. We’re not going to do it on our own. We’re not going to voluntarily check into rehab. We’re going to have to be forced to do it, because we’ve hit rock bottom, and the world has done an intervention. This “day of reckoning” is coming. And it’s not because of the sequester. Everybody is making a big deal about how painful this sequester is supposed to be. Well this is nothing compared to what’s really going to happen when we really have to swallow the bitter tasting medicine to restore health to an economy that is virtually going to be on its deathbed as a result of all the bad medicine that has been forced-fed it over the years by the Federal Reserve, by Congress, to mask the symptoms while the underlying disease gets that much worse.
“Bernanke Almost Comes Clean On ‘Exit’ Strategy”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Resource Of The Week: Peter Schiff’s Official Gold Blog
Back on February 19, 2013, I received the following e-mail from “crash prophet” and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals Peter Schiff:
Dear Christopher,
I am pleased to announce the launch of my new Official Gold Blog. This blog is an easy way to stay tuned to all my latest television appearances, videos, radio interviews, and written commentaries. In addition, the blog is full of videos, commentary, and news from the other sources that I rely upon to stay informed. This can be your one-stop shop for gold and silver investing info. Check it out and bookmark it…
If you invest in gold or silver, my Official Gold Blog is the place where you can always get my most current thinking. As well as that of other experts I trust. Whether it’s positive or negative, you‘ll want to know.
Peter Schiff’s Official Gold Blog will keep you up-to-date on all of my public opinions, plus:
• Be the first to hear my gold insights in specially recorded videos.
• Read the expert commentaries I recommend.
• Keep abreast of the latest news from the precious metals markets.
Peter’s latest project is nicely done. Hosted on the Euro Pacific Precious Metals website, his blog is real easy to navigate. If it’s Peter Schiff’s insights and commentary on gold and other topics you crave, you’ve come to the right spot. Plus, the series of posts entitled “Today’s Key Gold Headlines” are a nice place for gold observers to start their day.
Peter Schiff’s Official Gold Blog is a terrific resource, which you can read here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Link added to “Resources” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Peter Schiff: ‘Gold Bears Are Making Much Ado About Nothing’
There’s been quite a bit of talk these past couple of years about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy due to an economic recovery finally arriving that I’m going to have to agree with “crash prophet” and Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on this.
The Fed is bluffing.
Unless Fed officials are now starting to worry that growing their balance sheet is not in their best interest anymore.
Schiff, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis, wrote in the March issue of his Gold Letter that was published Friday:
Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: “We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off.” What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed’s unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.
Growing rumors last month of a potential “tightening” of monetary policy – seemingly confirmed by the Fed minutes released on Feb. 20th – have spooked the precious metals markets, leading to a 5.8% correction in gold and 10.2% in silver.
However, these fears are preposterous on two counts…
You can read the entire article (“The Fed’s Tightening Pipe Dream”) on the Euro Pacific Precious Metals website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Peter Schiff Warns The State Of The Union Is ‘A Complete Disaster’
On Tuesday evening, February 12, U.S. President Barack Obama gave his State of the Union address. Two days later on Valentine’s Day, Peter Schiff, the CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital who correctly-predicted the Panic of ’08 and housing crash, critiqued President Obama’s speech. From The Schiff Report YouTube video blog:
Today is Valentine’s Day, although it felt like Valentine’s Day two days ago when President Obama was delivering his State of the Union address. Because really what it amounted to was a Valentine’s gift to the nation where the President tries to buy our affections, or are votes, by promising more free stuff. Something for nothing. By promising that more government can solve our economic problems. Now the President describes the state of the Union as strong. Of course all presidents, when they make that annual pilgrimage up to the Capitol, they always tell us the Union is “sound.” That the Union is “strong.” That’s what George Bush said in 2007, just before the financial crisis, the economic meltdown. They always tell us how great it is, even though we’re on the edge of a precipice.
The fact of the matter is, the Union is anything but strong. It’s a complete disaster. We are staring at an economic crisis much graver than the financial crisis of 2008. Yet, what does President Obama have to say? Basically, nothing. Everything is fine, all we need is a little more government…
It will be interesting to listen to President Obama’s State of the Union address in 2014. Whether or not the economic collapse that I’m forecasting has happened before then still remains to be seen. But I know one thing for sure- we’ll be a year closer to it if it hasn’t happened. And if it hasn’t happened by 2014, it will probably be just around the corner.
“The Real State of the Union- 2013”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
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