Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff Predicts Future Fed Moves

Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital released a new entry Monday on The Schiff Report YouTube vlog. The “crash prophet” talked about a number of financial topics, including future activity by the U.S. central bank. Schiff predicted:

I think that with the weakening in the stock market, the softness we’re seeing now in the real estate market- with the fact that we’re going to be getting weaker jobs numbers in the spring that cannot be rationalized away based on the weather- the Fed is going to have come forward at some point and acknowledge which should have already been obvious. That they were mistaken. They were overly-optimistic on their assessment of the economy. That for whatever reason they’ll come up with an excuse to save face- they can blame it on some external factor- but the Fed is going to have to come out and they’re going to have to halt the tapering process, and ultimately reverse it.

How much time there will be between the pause and the reversal?

I don’t know. I don’t think it will be more than a couple of meetings, at best. But that’s what’s coming….

Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bubble and subsequent burst along with the 2008 global economic crisis, went on to speculate what all this might mean for gold and stocks.


“Warmer Weather’s Failure to Stoke Jobs Chills Stocks”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Peter Schiff: No Recovery, Just An Illusion Of Prosperity

I first started paying attention to Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff just prior to picking up his book Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (now Crash Proof 2.0, second edition) shortly after its early 2007 release. While some of the calls he made in that controversial text are still playing out, others have already come to fruition.

Subsequently, Schiff has been given credit for correctly-calling the U.S. housing bubble and its burst, and the 2008 global economic crisis.

Being one of Survival And Prosperity’s “crash prophets,” his latest investment recommendations are chronicled on this blog. As are his economic analyses and forecasts as well.

Here’s a recent breakdown of what Schiff sees going on with the U.S. economy and larger financial system, courtesy of a March 21 commentary entitled “Debt and Taxes” that’s posted on his Euro Pacific Capital website:

The last few years have proven that there is no line Washington will not cross in order to keep bubbles from popping. Just 10 years ago many of the analysts now crowing about the perfect conditions would have been appalled by policies that have been implemented to create them. The Fed has held interest rates at zero for five consecutive years, it has purchased trillions of dollars of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, and the Federal government has stimulated the economy through four consecutive trillion-dollar annual deficits. While these moves may once have been looked on as something shocking…now anything goes.

But the new monetary morality has nothing to do with virtue, and everything to do with necessity. It is no accident that the concept of “inflation” has experienced a dramatic makeover during the past few years. Traditionally, mainstream discussion treated inflation as a pestilence best vanquished by a strong economy and prudent bankers. Now it is widely seen as a pre-condition to economic health. Economists are making this bizarre argument not because it makes any sense, but because they have no other choice.

America is trying to borrow its way out of recession. We are creating debt now in order to push up prices and create the illusion of prosperity. To do this you must convince people that inflation is a good thing…even while they instinctively prefer low prices to high. But rising asset prices do little to help the underlying economy. That is why we have been stuck in what some economists are calling a “jobless recovery.” The real reason it’s jobless is because it’s not a real recovery! So while the current booms in stocks and condominiums have been gifts to financial speculators and the corporate elite, average Americans can only watch from the sidewalks as the parade passes them by. That’s why sales of Mercedes and Maseratis are setting record highs while Fords and Chevrolets sit on showroom floors. Rising prices to do not create jobs, increase savings or expand production. Instead all we get is debt, which at some point in the future must be repaid

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Which at some point in the future must be repaid”

Good luck trying to get your average American in 2014 to wrap their head around that crucial concept.

Once again, I agree with Schiff’s observation of what is going on all around us.

“Illusion of prosperity” is a fine choice of words here, and makes sense that I find a fine economic blog by the same name good reading.

As certain as the “Big One” will eventually hit California, so must our nation’s “financial reckoning day” arrive for all this debt we’ve accrued for some short-term “prosperity.”

You can read Schiff’s entire commentary on the Euro Pacific Capital website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Peter Schiff: Gold Fundamentals ‘Great Right Now’ As U.S. Recovery A ‘Myth’

Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff appeared on the CNBC show Futures Now on March 20. The financial commentator and author talked about a number of issues, including the Federal Reserve, gold, and inflation. On gold, Schiff told viewers:

The fundamentals have favored higher gold prices all along. The fundamentals for gold were great at the beginning of 2013. They were great at the end. They’re great right now. It’s just that most people don’t understand how great they are. They believe the myth of the U.S. recovery. They believe that the Fed can actually unwind its balance sheet, that it can end QE, that it can raise interest rates, and that the economy is going to keep on expanding. None of that is going to happen. It’s all fantasy.

We’re going to have QE Infinity. There is massive inflation. And it’s going to manifest itself in substantially higher gold prices.

The ensuing short debate between Schiff and economist/investor/hedge-fund manager Mark Dow about inflation was also interesting to watch. Perhaps those two can set up something “official” down the road.


“Mark Dow vs. Peter Schiff on Gold, Inflation, Fed”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Record Net Worth Result Of Fed Blowing Bubbles In Housing, Stocks?

I was surfing the Internet last night when I read something about Americans’ net worth making a comeback. Neil Shah reported on The Wall Street Journal website Thursday:

Americans’ wealth hit the highest level ever last year, according to data released Thursday, reflecting a surge in the value of stocks and homes that has boosted the most affluent U.S. households.

The net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations rose 14% last year, or almost $10 trillion, to $80.7 trillion, the highest on record, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday. Even adjusted for inflation using the Fed’s preferred gauge of prices, U.S. household net worth—the value of homes, stocks and other assets minus debts and other liabilities—hit a fresh record…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

I can’t say I’m surprised to hear of this rebound in net worth. After all, Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff has been warning for a couple of years now that the Federal Reserve is inflating new asset bubbles via tremendous amounts of stimulus (quantitative easing) to spark some sort of economic recovery in the wake of the bursting of the housing bubble and global financial crisis that reared its head in the fall of 2008. I blogged back on September 18, 2012:

In his September 14 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, explained to viewers what QE3 was really about:

This is the plan that Ben Bernanke has. Ben Bernanke’s plan to revive the U.S. economy, and create jobs, is to inflate another housing bubble. That’s it. That’s what the Fed’s got. That’s what it came up with. As if the last housing bubble worked out so well for the economy, that the Fed wants an encore…

How is another housing bubble going to solve anything. Now one thing that Ben Bernanke hasn’t figured out yet- it ain’t gonna work. No matter how much he tries, no matter how much air he blows in to that housing market, he’s not going to reflate that bubble. There are simply too many holes in it, and there is no precedent for relating a busted bubble. More likely, all that cheap money is going to go someplace else…

Schiff asserted the Federal Reserve was trying to inflate another housing bubble.

Instead, there’s suggestions both housing and the stock market look “frothy” these days.

Suppose the Fed did in fact want to inflate new asset bubbles. If the central bank aimed to spread the wealth around in an attempt to jump-start the economy, it doesn’t seem to be happening. Shah noted in that WSJ article:

But the rebound, while powerful, has been tilted in a way that limits the upside for the broader U.S. economy and is increasingly leaving behind many middle- and lower-income Americans…

That means that even as wealth increases, it’s increasingly going to the affluent.

In addition to the affluent, much of the wealth surge is going to older Americans. Both groups are less likely to spend their gains and more likely to save, Mr. Emmons said. Meanwhile, sheer demographics—the retirement of the baby boomers and America’s aging population—are increasing the ranks of the nation’s savers.

The upshot: While American households overall are getting wealthier, the benefits for the economy may prove limited until such improvements reach more people.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

“The benefits for the economy may prove limited until such improvements reach more people.”

I fear another financial crisis will have paid us a visit before such prosperity is achieved.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Shah, Neil “U.S. Household Net Worth Hits Record High.” The Wall Street Journal. 6 Mar. 2014. (link). 7 Mar. 2014.

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Peter Schiff: U.S. GDP Fell From 2.8 Percent In 2012 To 1.9 Percent In 2013

“Investor Warren Buffett says the economy continues the steady improvement that began in fall of 2009 and he remains optimistic despite Russia’s advance into Ukraine.

Buffett appeared on the business cable channel CNBC Monday morning after releasing an upbeat annual letter to his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shareholders over the weekend. Buffett is chairman and CEO of the Omaha, Neb., conglomerate.

Buffett said the reports he gets from Berkshire’s 80-odd subsidiaries in a variety of industries show that the economy is growing at a moderate rate, despite swings in investors’ mood.

“The American economy for five years has been moving at a fairly steady rate upwards —not as fast as people would like — but I think that absolutely continues now,” he said…”

-Associated Press, March 3, 2014

Well-known stock investor Warren Buffett has been bullish on the U.S. economy for some time now. Not so for a number of the “crash prophets,” including Peter Schiff. The Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist added a new entry Friday on his YouTube video blog The Schiff Report where he pointed out that U.S. GDP numbers for the past two years tell a different tale than the one Buffett shared with CNBC viewers this morning. Schiff observed:

The GDP numbers that were released today for the fourth quarter the government came back and revised down. It was a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. They originally told us the economy grew by 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter. And today, they revised that down to just 2.4 percent. 2.4 percent.

Now, if you look at the entire year of 2013, the GDP grew by 1.9 percent. For the year.

In 2012- the prior year- the GDP grew by 2.8 percent.

Now, wait a minute. President Obama said in his many speeches in late 2013 that this is the year the recovery became real. That we finally have the real recovery that he’s been promising.

Well wait a minute. If GDP in 2013 was up by 1.9 percent, but it was up by 2.8 percent in the year before when the recovery wasn’t real- how is the recovery more real when the economy is growing more slowly now than it was before?


“Recovery Fantasy Persists Despite Contrary Data”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Monday, March 3rd, 2014 Crash Prophets, GDP, Recovery No Comments

MarketWatch On Jim Rogers: ‘Signs Are Suggesting He’s Right In His Gloomy Prognostication On Food Supplies’

I started blogging about investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers back in the summer 2007, right after launching Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street.” Rogers- who correctly called the commodities rally in 1999- was already talking up agriculture as a great investment opportunity seven years ago.

Time and time again on this blog, I’ve noted how bullish the former investing partner of George Soros is about the sector.

And yesterday, the financial website MarketWatch concluded the Singapore-based investor might be on to something.

From Karen Friar on The Tell blog:

What makes today’s comments more pointed is that signs are suggesting he’s right in his gloomy prognostication on food supplies.

Severe weather of different kinds, production constraints and other factors are pushing up prices of beef, bread and other staples (read: 10 foods eating into your budget). Plus, California — the U.S.’s agricultural heartland — won’t get any irrigation water this summer, despite being gripped by a drought. That should end up hitting consumer wallets, too. And even the crisis in Ukraine could end up putting pressure on grain markets…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Naysayers love to bash Mr. Rogers and his investment predictions, trying to “call the game while it’s still in the early innings” (the same happens to fellow “crash prophets” Marc Faber and Peter Schiff- just look at the CNBC.com comments section underneath an article written about any one of the three). But I remember a British publication analyzing the outcome of his investing calls after he made that gloomy British pound forecast a few years back, and determining that more often than not Rogers is correct.

Chalk another one up for the CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc.? I think it’s a little too early still to give Rogers full credit, but based on his track record I have a feeling he’ll get this agriculture call right too.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Friar, Karen. “Jim Rogers: Want to make money? Drive a tractor.” The Tell. 25 Feb. 2014. (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/02/25/jim-rogers-want-to-make-money-drive-a-tractor/). 27 Feb. 2014.

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Peter Schiff’s Investment Advice Before The Fed Reverses, Increases QE

While I’m jonesing for a new entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, I did watch Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on CNBC’s Closing Bell on January 28. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis, told viewers the U.S. economy is actually doing “lousy” and that he thinks the Federal Reserve will reverse course on quantitative easing this year, increasing the levels of “stimulus.” When asked what one should do with their money, Schiff advised:

You should be buying gold. You should be buying mining stocks. You should be investing abroad. You should be getting out of the U.S. dollar. Because ultimately, that’s going to be the big casualty here. When the Fed surprises everybody and does more QE, and people realize the box that we’re in- that it’s QE Infinity, that there is no exit strategy, that exit is impossible, that it’s ever larger doses of this monetary heroin- the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar. You know, an economy that lives by QE dies by QE. We better be prepared for that.


“Yellen Will Reverse Taper and Increase QE”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘Bernanke Bubble’ Will Pop Early In Janet Yellen’s Term, Ringing In Dollar Collapse

Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff added a new entry Friday on his YouTube video blog The Schiff Report. Schiff, who correctly-predicted the U.S. housing bubble’s pop and 2008 economic crisis, warned viewers of a collapse in the U.S. dollar instigated by another bubble deflating. From Friday:

What happened two years into the Bernanke term is Alan Greenspan’s bubble blew up. Now, of course, Ben Bernanke, he was part of it, because he was at the Fed for part of Alan Greenspan’s tenure, and so he went along with the bad policies. But the “Greenspan bubble” blew up on Ben Bernanke. The same thing is going to happen again because the “Bernanke bubble” is bigger than the “Greenspan bubble.” The monetary policies pursued by Bernanke were far more reckless than the ones pursued by Greenspan. And therefore the bubble is much bigger. And therefore the damage to the economy when it pops will be much bigger. So just like it hit the fan when Bernanke was at the Fed, it’s going to do the same thing on Janet Yellen’s watch. We’re going to have another crisis early in the Yellen term that will be bigger than the crisis that we had early in the Bernanke term, and Wall Street and the government are equally unprepared. They will be equally blindsided. In fact, I think they will be blind-sided even more. Because if you go back to the Greenspan period, there were more doubters, there were more people like me back in 2004, 5, 6, 7, who were critical of Alan Greenspan and who were expressing that criticism or that skepticism by buying gold and doing various things to hedge themselves against inflation. There’s not that many of us left. There were some critics of Ben Bernanke early on, and as gold up to 1,900. Yes, critics were buying gold and anticipating problems in inflation. No more. Most of those voices have been silenced. In the last year or so, the doubters have become believers. Everyone is cheerleading Bernanke and welcoming Janet Yellen into the Fed anticipating nothing but sunny skies ahead. Nobody really understands that all of the problems that they believed Ben Bernanke solved, he simply exacerbated. The U.S. economy is in worse shape than it was when the financial crisis started. We have bigger problems, and therefore the next financial crisis will be worse. The thing that is going to be different about the next crisis, is I believe it will be a currency crisis…

Instead of being the end of the dollar’s decline, the next crisis will be the beginning of the dollar’s collapse. And I will anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken until that crisis starts. Because as 2014 unfolds, we’re going to get more data like the December jobs data that is going to disappoint and call into question the validity of this recovery, which I believe is an illusion, and not a reality.


“An Imaginary Recovery Does Not Create Real Jobs”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘The Fundamentals For Gold Have Never Been Better Than They Are Now’

Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff appeared on FOX Business Network’s Markets Now show on January 3. Schiff, who correctly-called the recent U.S. housing bust and global economic crisis, shared the following about gold with viewers:

Well, I’ve been buying gold now for 14 or 15 years. And out of the last 13 years, it’s been down once, which was in 2013. Did I anticipate a 28 percent decline in 2013? No. But the fact that it happened doesn’t change anything. What’s amazing is that you have this big down year, and yet hardly anybody views it as a buying opportunity. They think 2014 is going to be just as bad. Because the fundamentals for gold have never been better than they are now. The fact that so many people can’t see that, just makes me even more bullish.

Rogers reportedly “ultra bullish” on gold long-term. Schiff “even more bullish” on the precious metal than he was before.

When asked if gold’s price could rise in 2014 and by how much, Schiff, who’s also the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, said:

We had a pretty big down year in 2013. So I would expect a pretty good year upwards in 2014. Is it possible that we could have two down years in a row for gold? It’s possible. You know, but I don’t think it’s probable.


“A Fed Induced Phony Recovery is Bullish For Gold”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers ‘Ultra Bullish’ On Gold Long-Term

While a good amount of “dislike” has been directed at gold lately, it really ramped up to a new level starting December 30. Later that afternoon I noticed the headlines on the financial mainstream media websites emphasizing (extra big and bold in a number of cases) the price of gold getting pummeled in 2013. For example, there was this on the Financial Times (UK) website Friday:

8:58am On Wall Street from MARKETS
Gold bulls lose faith in bullion’s allure
Last year’s losses battered the metal’s reputation as a store of value
• Gold funds lose lustre
• Gold miners braced for reserve cuts
• Little glitter for gold in 2014
• Gold set for biggest drop in 30 years

All that in one section of the site. The above is pretty typical of what I’ve been seeing the last couple of days across the Internet.

And reading all the negative press, I have to wonder if now might not be a good time to acquire gold. Especially as “crash prophets” Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff are bullish on the yellow metal in the long run.

According to a recent report in a prominent international, web-based publication focusing on all aspects of the mining sector, Rogers, a well-known investor, author, and financial commentator, is actually “ultra bullish” on gold in the long term. Alex Williams wrote on Mineweb.com on New Year’s Eve:

Rogers prefers gold over gold mining shares and divisible coins over bullion, but says “there’s nothing in precious metals that I’m tempted to buy at the moment.” Indian import tariffs he views as the single biggest drag on the gold market currently…

For early 2014, Rogers is therefore long inflatable equities and neutral on gold, but longer term, he expects to short junk and government bonds and is ultra bullish on gold. “Gold will become one of the only refuges around,” he says. “That’s not this quarter.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

It’s no secret that the Singapore-based investor sees gold doing well over the long haul. Back on August 5, I noted that Rogers had recently appeared on GoldSeek.com Radio’s The Gold and Silver Review show. Speaking to Chris Waltzek on the August 2 show, Rogers predicted the following for gold:

Eventually, we will make a new low, whether it’s this year, next year, or the year after. And then, of course, the bull market will resume. And we’re off to the races and wonderful new highs will be made. But it may be a few years from now.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Williams, Alex. “Bernanke has set the stage for the Fed’s collapse- Jim Rogers.” Mineweb.com. 31 Dec. 2013. (www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-political-economy?oid=222934&sn=Detail). 3 Jan. 2014.

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Peter Schiff Bullish On Emerging Market Stocks, Gold

Peter Schiff appeared on the Fox Business Network show Markets Now on December 26. The CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital discussed the Federal Reserve and its announced “tapering” of its $85 billion bond-buying program. Schiff, like fellow “crash prophets” Marc Faber and Jim Rogers, believes the U.S. central bank will eventually reverse course on cutting back stimulus. He told viewers:

The Fed, I don’t believe, is going to carry out the taper talk. Maybe it will begin it, but it’s certainly not going to follow through. And I think it will reverse course, and ultimately be buying a lot more mortgages and Treasuries each month than it’s doing right now. And that’s because without the support of the Fed, long-term interest rates are heading a lot higher, and our economy is too broke to afford it. The highest rate we can really afford is zero at this point. And the markets haven’t figured this out yet- that we have a phony recovery. It’s a bubble masquerading as a recovery.

When asked where people should be putting their money then, the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals recommended:

I’m not bearish on stocks. I’m bearing on the U.S. dollar. I’m bearish on paper. People just assume I’m all gloom and doom. So, I think the stock market’s going down. If the Fed did the right thing for the economy, and let interest rates go up, the stock market would come crashing down. But, I don’t believe the Fed is going to do the right thing. They’re going to keep doing the wrong thing. This bubble is too big to pop. The Fed knows it. So they’re going to keep on supplying air. So yes, stocks are going to go up, but the dollar is going to go down a lot more in real terms. And yes, gold is going to go up. If you really want to invest in the stock market, look around the world. There are much better opportunities in foreign stocks, in the emerging markets, that hasn’t been the place to be in 2013, but it probably will be the place to be in 2014 and going forward.


“The Fed knows this bubble is too Big to Pop”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Bashes QE, Taper Lite, Gold Bears

“Gold Set for Worst Annual Tumble Since ‘81”

-FOX Business website headline, December 23, 2013

“Gold’s safe-haven role is over: strategist”

-MarketWatch.com headline, December 23, 2013

“I wouldn’t buy gold with my worst enemy’s cash: Strategist”

-CNBC.com headline, December 22, 2013

Not only have I been waiting to hear Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff’s take on last week’s “taper” of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program, but also his opinion on the latest bout of gold selling.

Schiff, who correctly called the recent housing crash and 2008 global economic crisis, just uploaded a new entry to The Schiff Report, his YouTube video blog. Schiff told viewers on December 20:

We have never had more stimulus- both monetary and fiscal- than we have right now. This is record-breaking, Keynesian stimulus. And it’s barely working. Yes, it’s inflating a stock market bubble. It’s inflating a real estate bubble. But it’s not creating genuine economic growth. And it never will. It is not raising living standards for the vast majority of Americans. And it isn’t creating productive, high-paying jobs. And it never will. And Ben Bernanke doesn’t understand that.

Like fellow “crash prophet” Marc Faber, Schiff believes the Federal Reserve will eventually pursue more, not less, bond-buying in the future. He explained:

Why did gold sell off? “Because everything is great.” “Because the Fed has done the impossible.” “It’s tapered and it hasn’t hurt anything.” This is what everybody believes. That the Fed has accomplished its goal. It hasn’t done anything. It’s talked about doing a tiny bit. But again, as far as I’m concerned, monetary policy is even easier now than it was before they announced this trivial taper lite. And the rest of the taper is probably never going to happen because the Fed is going to have to buy more bonds, not fewer bonds, to keep this whole house of cards from imploding.

Now, is gold going to continue to fall? I don’t know. My gut is that it’s probably still finding a bottom around 1,200. There is plenty of legitimate support for gold all around the world. Yes, all the speculators who are convinced that everything is great. The same people that thought it was great in 2007. Or it was great in 1999. That crowd, completely clueless about actual economics, is convinced that there is no reason to own gold. And so, they’re going to sell it, they’re going to short it. But there is a larger community around the world, particularly I think a lot of the emerging markets, central banks, China in particular, that see it differently. And they’re using this opportunity to buy as much gold as they can so that when the speculators and the investors figure out how wrong they’ve got it, and they realize that they need to be buying gold not selling it, there won’t be any gold left to buy because they would have already sold it. And the people who bought it from them aren’t going to sell it back. The gold that China bought- they’re never going to sell it. I don’t care how high the price of gold goes. They want that gold as reserves for their currency because they know the dollars that they have in reserve are eventually going to be Monopoly money. It’s going to be confetti. So they need something real to back up their own currency, and they want gold.

And so, I think that we need to be taking advantage of this opportunity. And don’t be worried about all the negativity that’s out there and all the professionals who are writing gold’s obituary. They’ve written it before, they’ll write it again. But I still think that the bull market has a long way to go. Ultimately, we are still heading for a currency crisis.


“Taper Lite: Bernanke Tightens Monetary Policy by Easing it!”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Economic Fiction

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity may have noticed I didn’t blog much last week. Truth be told, I was reading and watching a lot of blog-related material that I want to address in the coming weeks. I didn’t pay as close attention to the news as I would a “normal” week. But it was hard not to notice all the “rosy” talk about the U.S. economy. Sure, some decent economic reports have come out. Problem is, I don’t have much faith in them as I saw some years back how they can- and subsequently have been- manipulated to be more positive than if the numbers hadn’t been fudged.

As far as I’m concerned, the United States economy and larger financial system are still in big trouble at the end of 2013. The so-called “recovery”?- primarily the result of massive amounts of “stimulus” and new debt that the Federal Reserve and Washington chose to employ to paper-over an economic disaster that reared its ugly head in 2008.

Come to think of it, the “recovery” reminds me a lot of that scene from the 1994 film Pulp Fiction, where Uma Thurman’s character receives a healthy dose of adrenaline after she OD’s:


(Warning: Squeamish readers may not want to watch)
YouTube Video

Just substitute the economy for Ms. Thurman and massive amounts of “stimulus” for the adrenaline, and you might get an idea of what I’m talking about.

Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff remarked some time ago about all the stimulus going into the economy. He basically pointed out that since there’s been so much of it, it’s only reasonable to expect the recipient would appear to be recovering. Perhaps even full of vitality. However, remove the stimulus and regression eventually sets in.

And that’s where I think we’re heading.

Now, I’m not just talking about a recession. It’s a little bit more complicated.

As I mentioned before, not only has there been a tremendous amount of stimulus being deployed, but trillions and trillions of dollars worth of new debt accrued as well. The United States was a financial “house of cards” before. All this new debt heaped on top of it has made it even more unstable. Worse- Washington has demonstrated time and time again they have no serious intention of putting a halt to the nonsense.

Therefore, not only am I expecting a U.S. recession, but a financial crash as well.

Regrettably, I just can’t see any way around it at this point in time.

I don’t know how much time we have left before the nation hits the proverbial brick wall, but our “financial reckoning day” is coming.

Washington and the Fed got lucky when they were able to kick the can down the road back in 2008. Eventually, that luck will run out.

Here’s hoping as many Americans as possible are prepared for that inevitable occasion.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Peter Schiff Predicts Effect On Consumers When Bond, Stock, And Real Estate Bubbles Pop

Anyone catch Euro Pacific Capital’s CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on FOX Business Network’s The Willis Report back on November 27?

I just saw it for the first time the other day. Host Gerri Willis began the segment by talking about recent upbeat economic reports, to which Schiff replied:

You know, Alan Greenspan actually came out today and proclaimed that there was no bubble in the stock market. And he ought to know, right? Because he’s 0 for 2 when it comes to spotting bubbles. I think it’s 3 strikes and he’s out.

Ouch. A close second for my earlier “Quote For The Week” post.

The “crash prophet” added:

Because not only is there a bubble in the stock market. But the Fed has managed to make bubbles in the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market simultaneously. That’s a lot of bubbles for the Fed to juggle.

Later on in the segment, Schiff, who correctly predicted the recent housing market crash and 2008 economic crisis, told Willis the U.S. dollar “is eventually going to get hit hard.” The host asked:

What will I feel as a consumer?

Schiff answered:

When the Fed is ultimately forced to raise interest rates- yes, we’ll have a big drop in the stock market, a big drop in the real estate market, we’ll be back in a severe recession, and it’s going to be tough. Prices are also going to go up for consumer goods, because a weak dollar means consumer goods are more expensive, But ultimately if the Fed has to protect the weak dollar with rate hikes, then your assets go down in value. But the price of everything you need to buy goes up.

Not a pretty scenario at all for American consumers if Schiff is correct once again.


“Holding the Dollar Could be Riskier Than Stocks”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Predicts More QE In 2014 Will Prevent Stock Bear Market

Never let it be said that Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff is nothing but a “permabear.”

Schiff appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell yesterday and shared his 2014 outlook on the show. Schiff, who correctly predicted the U.S. housing crash and ongoing economic crisis, told viewers:

I think if the Fed does taper, the only way we’re going to get a rally is if they undo the taper and start doing more QE. I don’t expect Janet Yellen to taper at all- I expect her to continue to talk about it, but not do it. I think investors are really underestimating the severity of the problems that underlie the structure of the U.S. economy and the degree to which the Fed is masking, and actually exasperating, those problems with QE.

And so I think we’re going to get more QE, but it’s not necessarily that bullish for the stock market. It will prevent the bear market that would otherwise take place. But I think it will cause investors to look more overseas. Maybe some of the markets that they’ve been ignoring as they’ve been tripping over each other to buy U.S. stocks I think are pretty expensive.


“Will market bulls continue run into 2014?”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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