Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: Get Out Of Dollars And Own Gold, Silver, And Stocks In Countries With Much Sounder Economies

Early last month I blogged about an interview series with well-known investor Jim Rogers on the Wall Street Daily website that was conducted by Robert Williams, founder of the Baltimore, Maryland-based investment research/market commentary service. Williams followed that up with a three-part interview of Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff that began on New Year’s Eve and finished just yesterday. Just like that Rogers series, it was pretty insightful stuff.

On December 31, 2014, the Wall Street Daily published “The Real Earthquake Is About to Hit.” That was followed on January 7, 2015, by “When Will the Dollar Bubble Burst?” From an exchange between Williams and Schiff:

WILLIAMS: So what’s our readers to do with their money, Peter? Their 401(k) s, their retirement accounts, their savings accounts? I mean, the markets aren’t safe, the banks aren’t safe, and the dollar isn’t safe. How can someone possibly protect themselves?

SCHIFF: Well, I mean, there’s no way to protect yourself really from the volatility, because, you know, you gotta be – the volatility’s here, but you know, long term, if you understand what’s gonna happen, then what – it’s pretty easy – what to do, and that’s get out of, you know, dollars, and own gold and silver, and own equity stocks in countries that have much sounder economies, you know, structurally sound economies underlying, you know, their markets and, you know, buy a lot of value. You can’t just buy a lot of hyped-up assets that have been propped up by cheap money and the bubble.

So you have to be in the right asset classes, be in the right currencies, be in the right countries, and I think, in the long run, you know, you’ll come out on top but it’s kinda difficult for a lot of people to do because, in the short run, you know, it’s the – you know, the people that are getting it wrong, that have been having their investment strategy validated by price auction because, you know, they have a lot of company. The cloud has got it wrong. There’s not many people in the scheme of things that actually understand what’s going to happen or, you know, if they do, they’re certainly not, you know, investing for that end game. They’re trying to – you know, they’re trying to finesse this and they’re trying to, you know, dance while the music’s playing, but they’re hoping that by the time it stops, they’ll have a safe seat somewhere…

(Editor’s note : Bold added for emphasis)

Yesterday, in “There Are No Safe Havens Left,” Schiff shared with readers where he thought commodities, crude oil, and gold are going in 2015 and beyond.

Head on over to the Wall Street Daily website to read Part 1, 2, and 3 of this nicely-done interview.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: China, Other U.S. Creditors Could Emulate Switzerland, Implode America When Fed Attempts QE4

“One of the world’s safest investments- the Swiss franc- has swung wildly this week after the central bank in Switzerland announced it would scrap its policy of limiting the rise of the currency.

It may seem like an arcane move, but it’s not. The Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision on Thursday caused the franc to surge against the euro and dollar, sending shockwaves through the global financial system.

Holders of Swiss francs profited handsomely, but many investors and brokerage firms, were pounded with losses…”

-Associated Press, January 16, 2015

Anyone been paying attention to what happened with the Swiss franc this past week? I have a feeling most American aren’t- which is a mistake, because the actions of the Swiss central bank may be repeated by China and other countries in the near future with respect to our country. Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff talked about the possible implications in his January 16, 2014, entry in The Schiff Report vlog on YouTube.com. Schiff warned viewers:

When the Fed comes up with QE4, China is going to be faced with a similar decision as Switzerland. Are they going to back up their trucks and load them up with dollars? Because if we do QE4, we’re going to expect the Chinese to bear the burden if they want to keep their currency from going up. And I think Switzerland is going to show them the way. They’ll see the light. This is not going to be detrimental to the Swiss economy. On the contrary, this is going to be a positive for Switzerland, and it could be a positive for China if they abandon their peg as well. But, that’s going to be even worse for America than what Switzerland did to Europe… for America, we’ve been relying on this Chinese crutch for so long, you take it away, and there’s a real implosion here. We’re going to suffer much more if the Chinese pull our plug. I mean, we’re really going to go down the drain. This might not necessarily be the nail in the coffin for the Europeans. ..

People should look at this lesson of Switzerland and heed these warnings. And don’t just look in the rearview mirror at what happened in Switzerland. But look forward, look through the windshield at what’s coming. Look at the relationship between the Swiss franc and the euro and what are the implications between the dollar and other pegged currencies like the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar. All of these relationships are eventually going to crack. All of the countries that are subsidizing the United States, that are absorbing our trade deficits, that are piling up our Treasuries- they’re all going to have the same problem that Switzerland had. They made a mistake and corrected it in three short years. These others countries have been making a bigger mistake for a longer period of time, but eventually, they are going to be forced to bit the bullet and cut and run. And I think it’s going to be the same decision that motivated the Swiss is going to be the prospect of QE4, because everybody is expecting a tighter Fed, everybody believes that we have a legitimate recovery, and nobody is expecting this recovery to implode, and the Fed to come back with QE4- but that is exactly what’s going to happen. Just the way they were caught by surprise by what happened with the Swiss franc, they’re going to be even more surprised by what’s going to happen with the U.S. economy, what’s going to happen with the dollar…

Don’t wait for that to happen. Don’t be surprised. Don’t be bankrupted like the forex traders, or the forex companies that were extending the credit to the leveraged speculators. Get your economic house in order. Understand that economic fundamentals always come through in the end. Sometimes it takes longer to happen, and sometimes people become emboldened, because if something hasn’t happened, they think it’s never going to happen. And exactly when you get complacent, when you think it’s always going to be that way- and believe me, the people that were levered up short the Swiss franc, in their wildest imaginations, they could not see this day coming. Even though it should have been obvious that this day would come. Nobody knows when. And that’s why I always tell my clients, we’ve got to be prepared in advance. It’s too late, if you’re a day late. You’ve got to be early. If you woke up yesterday morning, and you were short the Swiss franc, it was too late to cover. The market just gapped, it was a huge move, there was nothing you could do. You had to be prepared in advance. You couldn’t time it- there was no way to know exactly when it was going to happen- because nobody could figure that out. You have to be early. You can’t be late. And so when it comes to structuring your portfolio and preparing for a dollar crisis, you’re not going to see it coming. You’re not going to do it at the last minute. You’ve got to be prepared in advance. And, you know, there’s plenty of warning signs that that day of reckoning is coming.


“Will China Pull a ‘Switzerland’ on the U.S. Dollar?”
YouTube Video

Schiff, who also heads up SchiffGold, shared his view on how gold might perform in the coming year. He told viewers:

I think gold’s going to have a big first half- even bigger than the first half of 2014- but in the second half, that’s when it could really take off.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Marc Faber: ‘The President, For Whatever Reason, Might Not Finish His Term’

This year’s Barron’s Roundtable convened on January 12, 2015, at the Harvard Club of New York. And one member of the Roundtable, Swiss-born investment advisor and fund manager Marc Faber, brought up some interesting scenarios for the coming year. Dr. Faber told Roundtable participants:

Many surprises could occur in the next 12 months. The president, for whatever reason, might not finish his term. China’s president, Xi Jinping, doesn’t speak as much as Obama, but when he speaks, he makes sense. He is a powerful person. In the past 45 years, China has pursued a policy of nonintervention in other countries’ domestic affairs. But that might change because of its oil interests in the Sudan. China is the largest supplier of troops to the U.N. peacekeeping forces. Its troops are conveniently placed next to Sudan’s oil facilities. China also has a large interest in the Iraqi oilfields. If ISIS moves toward southern Iraq, which it currently can’t do, China will protect its interests. The Chinese are becoming more assertive in their geopolitical ambitions. They must ensure a supply of natural resources, such as oil, copper, and iron ore. In their view, the Americans have no interests in Southeast Asia and eventually will have to move out. It is unclear how this will be achieved, or when, but it probably won’t happen peacefully

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Thailand-based Faber, like fellow “crash prophets” Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff, recognizes that the West’s economic power is steadily being transferred to the East. He added in New York City:

Even if Asia doesn’t grow much this year, economic power is shifting to Asia. The Indian economy could grow by 5%-6% in 2015, although the Indians would say I am too pessimistic. Nonetheless, a 5% growth rate is enormous, compared to zero in Europe.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


Heineken Commercial “The Date” feat. Mohammed Rafi, Jaan Pehechaan Ho (1965)
YouTube Video

You can read the entire Roundtable discussion on the Barron’s website here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: Buy Gold, Silver To Prepare For Bursting Of This ‘Much Bigger Bubble’ Than Housing, Dot-Com

The first installment of Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast for the new year is out on YouTube. And Euro Pacific Capital’s Schiff recapped gold’s performance in 2014 and shared his outlook for the precious metal- along with silver- in 2015. He told viewers:

I think the sentiment situation, the markets, the technicals, are really poised for a very, very big year up in the precious metals in gold and silver for 2015. And nobody is expecting this. We had the sentiment completely in the opposite direction. All the bears were piled onto the same side of the boat. And now it turns out that they got it wrong. And I think they’re going to have to scramble to get to the other side as this illusion rapidly fades. Again, I’ve said this many times, that I’ve never seen a bigger disconnect in the markets- the stock market, the currency market, the precious metal market- between reality and perception. What everybody believes is wrong. And soon, these widely-held beliefs are going to be questioned in a major way and then abandoned. Just like they were with the housing market and subprime when that bubble burst. And just like they were with in dot-com market when that bubble burst. Except that this is a much bigger bubble, and the damage and the fallout on the financial markets will be much greater when this bursts. And therefore, it’s that much more important that investors be properly prepared. And part of that preparation is owning gold and silver.


“State of the Gold Market 2015: Exclusive Forecast & Charts”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Marc Faber, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, And Peter Schiff All Sound The Alarm

I find it both funny and disturbing that the financial types who missed the U.S. housing bubble/bust and global economic crisis that was readily-visible by the second half of 2008 are now claiming the U.S. economic “recovery” is on solid footing and there are no asset bubbles in sight.

Meanwhile, the few individuals who correctly-predicted that carnage- including Marc Faber, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff- are sounding the alarm again.

Here’s what each of these “crash prophets” have been saying lately (the following statements have all been blogged about previously on Survival And Prosperity).

Swiss-born investor and money manager Marc Faber warned CNBC Squawk Box viewers on September 19, 2014:

Today, the good news is we have a bubble in everything, everywhere- with very few exceptions. And, eventually, there will be a problem when these asset markets begin to perform poorly. The question is- what will be the catalyst? It could be a rise in interest rates not engineered by the Fed, because I think they’ll keep interests rates at zero on the Fed funds rate for a very long time… We could have essentially a break in bond markets at some point. We also could have a strong dollar. A strong dollar has already happened in the last two months signifies that international liquidity is tightening. And when that happens, usually it’s not very good for asset markets.

“A bubble in everything, everywhere.” Reminds me of what British-born investment strategist Jeremy Grantham said right before the asset bubbles popped during the “Panic of ’08.” Speaking of Grantham, he penned in his November 2014 quarterly investment letter entitled “Bubble Watch Update”:

I am still a believer that the Fed will engineer a fully-fledged bubble (S&P 500 over 2250) before a very serious decline…

My personal fond hope and expectation is still for a market that runs deep into bubble territory (which starts, as mentioned earlier, at 2250 on the S&P 500 on our data) before crashing as it always does. Hopefully by then, but depending on what the rest of the world’s equities do, our holdings of global equities will be down to 20% or less. Usually the bubble excitement – which seems inevitably to be led by U.S. markets – starts about now, entering the sweet spot of the Presidential Cycle’s year three, but occasionally, as you have probably discovered the hard way already, history can be a snare and not a help.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Fully-fledged bubble (S&P 500 over 2250) before a very serious decline…”

The S&P 500 stands at 2,058 this Sunday- only 192 points away from Grantham’s bubble “target.”

There’s also investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers, who was talking U.S. equities on RT’s Boom Bust on December 26, 2014, when he remarked:

I know the bear market will come… The next bear market, Erin, is going to be much worse than the last one because the debt has gone through the roof. Debt worldwide, including the U.S., has skyrocketed, and we’re all going to have to pay a terrible price for all this money printing and all this debt.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Finally, there’s Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff, who argued on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog on Halloween 2014:

When this illusion collapses, this fantasy of a U.S. economic recovery- because everybody believes there’s no recession anywhere in sight, that we’re years away from a U.S. recession- when in fact, another recession is right around the corner. And in fact, it will be worse than the recession that we had in 2008, 2009, if the Fed does not come in with QE 4…

I expect Janet Yellen to react to this coming recession the way Ben Bernanke reacted to the last one. The way Alan Greenspan reacted to the last one. Because that’s the only playbook we’ve got. And remember, when this recession starts, they can’t start with rate cuts. Rates are at zero. You can’t cut from zero. All they can do is revamp QE. And believe me, it’s going to have to be a lot bigger than QE 3. QE 4 is going to have to be bigger than QE 3 for the same reason QE 3 had to be bigger than QE 2- the economy builds up a tolerance. The more addicted to QE, the more QE you need to get any kind of result. And this last result was minimal in the real economy. I mean, yes- the Fed was able to get the stock market to go up, but the real economy never experienced any real economic growth. The average American is worse off today than when QE began. By far. Incomes are down. Real employment is down. Net worth is down. Poverty is up. Government dependency is up. The cost of living is up. Nothing has improved, except maybe the level of optimism on Wall Street…

This crisis is not really going to be about a credit crisis. Not private credit. It’s going to be about debt. Sovereign credit. It’s going to be about the dollar. A currency crisis. A sovereign crisis. Which is going to be very different than the crisis we had in 2008. It’s a crisis of an excess of QE. Of an overdose of QE. That’s the one that’s coming. That’s the one that we have to prepare for. That’s the one that I have been warning about since the beginning…

Schiff, who’s also a financial commentator and author, has been the most vocal of the four in warning of economic pain dead-ahead of us.

Jim Rogers talking the day after Christmas about the coming bear market alerted me to the fact that all these “crash prophets” whom I regularly-follow on this blog are now sounding the alarm at the same time. To summarize their recent warnings:

Marc Faber- “A bubble in everything, everywhere.” Actually, I believe he still likes Asia and Asian emerging economies.
Jeremy Grantham- “I am still a believer that the Fed will engineer a fully-fledged bubble (S&P 500 over 2250) before a very serious decline.”
Jim Rogers- “The next bear market… is going to be much worse than the last one because the debt has gone through the roof.”
Peter Schiff- “An overdose of QE. That’s the one that’s coming. That’s the one that we have to prepare for. That’s the one that I have been warning about since the beginning.”

At the start of 2015, it will be interesting to see how the next couple of years play out, for I believe Americans will get the chance to experience quite a bit of the above in that time period- whether they want to or not.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Nouriel Roubini: ‘Mother Of All Asset Bubbles’ To Pop In 2016

One of the original “crash prophets” of the 2008 global economic crisis is now sounding the alarm over what he sees in 2016.

I first mentioned Nouriel Roubini, a former Treasury official under the Clinton administration, a professor of economics at NYU, and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, in my old blog Boom2Bust.com several years ago. Roubini correctly-predicted the financial crisis, but “Dr. Doom”- as the financial media likes to call him- had become more optimistic this year. On May 14, 2014, he “debated” fellow “prophet” Peter Schiff on CNBC’s Fast Money, saying:

We’re printing a lot of money but it’s not creating credit. It’s not creating inflation. And if we had not done this policy, this Great Recession would have become a Great Depression. So, inflation is going to stay low. Gold prices are going to fall. And I don’t believe that the dollar’s going to collapse. Actually, I believe the dollar’s going to become stronger in the next few years- just the opposite of what Peter thinks.

But these days, Dr. Roubini is starting to sound gloomy again. Last week, I happened to come across a Yahoo! Finance interview with Roubini from earlier this month. From an exchange with editor-in-chief Aaron Task:

TASK: Nouriel Roubini is often referred to as “Dr. Doom”- affectionately of course- but the NYU professor and chairman of Roubini Global Economics is not always downbeat. He prefers “Dr. Realist,” and in February 2013 Roubini told Yahoo! Finance and this reporter that, “The mother of all asset bubbles had begun, and would eventually be bigger than the 2003-2006 bubble.” Since that time the S&P 500 is up about 40 percent, so Nouriel, that was a great call if you were long, and bubbles are great if you’re long and you get out in time. Where do you see- what inning, if we use the baseball analogy, are we in in this bubble from your point of view?
ROUBINI: We’re in middle-later innings. Next year we’ll have economic growth. We’re still easy money. I think that this frothiness that we’ve seen in these financial markets is likely to continue- from equities to credit to housing. And in a couple of years, most likely, this asset inflation is going to become asset frothiness. And eventually, an asset and a credit bubble. And eventually, any booming bubble ends up a bust and a crash. I don’t expect that happening next year, but I would say that valuations in many markets- whether its government bonds or credit or real estate or some equity markets- are already stretched. They’re going to become more stretched as the real economy justifies a slow exit, and all this liquidity is going into more asset inflation. And so, two years down the line for them to shake out, but not before then.
TASK: A couple of years down the line, okay.
ROUBINI: Yeah. 2016 I would say.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Roubini: U.S. equities will be strong until 2016”
Yahoo! Finance Video

Dr. Roubini gave this advice to investors:

At this point, I would be neutral or underweight U.S. equities compared to other markets.

As for “best bets” in 2015, he told viewers:

Several I would say. I would say, dollar strength relative to the euro, relative to the yen, relative to the commodity currencies, relative to fragile emerging markets. And a bet on commodities further another leg down, certainly industrial metals like copper and others linked to China. Those will be two of the stories for 2015.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: Layoffs, Falling GDP, And More QE Coming

I just got done reading a December 9 commentary piece by Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and financial crisis last decade, pointed out that while the latest rosy jobs and GDP reports were gladly disseminated by the mainstream media, not-so-good news wasn’t shared. He observed:

In the weeks leading up to, and the days after, the recent GDP and jobs reports, a torrent of data releases came in that were almost universally awful. However, in our current era of journalistic lethargy, these reports have received almost no attention at all…

“Lethargy?” Some might argue “censorship” is a better fit, to support a particular agenda.

Anyway, Schiff went on to give a brief overview of the dismal economic data that wasn’t talked about by the MSM.

Upon completing this task, the “crash prophet” issued the following warning:

There is much in both the GDP and the Jobs Report that is dependent on forward-looking expectations. I believe that both reports are showing improvement because businesses are building inventory and hiring staff in anticipation of an economy that they believe will continue to improve. It’s like the Field of Dreams recovery, prepare for it and it will come. But I think businesses are following the false narrative, and ignoring, or rationalizing, the bad data as thoroughly as does the media. When they realize they were fooled by the hype, jobs will be lost, and GDP will fall.

Furthermore, the GDP and jobs data would certainly be far weaker if the Federal Reserve were not providing so much monetary support. Sure, they have discontinued the vast majority of the QE, but interest rates are still at zero percent. What would GDP or job growth look like if consumers, businesses, and the federal government were forced to pay anything that approaches the historically normal interest rates on our much greater than normal level of debt? My guess is that it will be awhile before we find out, as I believe that as the bloom comes off the recovery rose, the Fed will launch another round of QE before it gets around to raising interest rates.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Layoffs, falling GDP, and more QE. Quite a different tune than what the “talking heads” on the financial news networks are singing these days.

You can read Schiff’s entire commentary on the Euro Pacific Capital website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Blasts U.S. Jobs Report, Irrational Exuberance 2.0, So-Called Experts

“Bullish U.S. jobs report keeps Fed on track for mid-2015 rate hike”
-Reuters website, December 5, 2014

“U.S. Stocks Rise After Strong Jobs Report”
-The Wall Street Journal website, December 5, 2014

“Hiring surged in November as employers added 321,000 jobs, crowning 2014 as the strongest year for job growth since 1999.”
-CNN Money website, December 5, 2014

Any readers thinking Friday’s U.S. jobs report sounded too good to be true?

Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff did, and in his Friday entry on The Schiff Report Video Blog on YouTube, the “crash prophet” let the Pollyannas have it. Schiff pointed out:

If you actually look beneath the surface of this “strong” report, there are a lot of problems. First of all, again, more than half of the jobs that were created were low-paying jobs. You’re talking about secretarial, administrative assistant-type jobs, waiters, bartenders, retail. Also jobs in leisure and hospitality, temporary services- that’s more than half the jobs. Also, there’s another report that comes out which is the household survey. This is the establishment survey- the non-farm number. But there’s a household survey, and that one was flat. Basically, no gain in jobs in November. And in fact, they reported about 150,000 decrease in full-time jobs. So it was made up by an increase in part-time jobs. And in fact, in that household survey, you find that the big job losers went to younger people. People 16 to 24- there was a big drop in their numbers in the workforce. But you had a record number of people 55 and older entering the workforce. Labor force participation, which is still 62.8, which matches the lowest level since 1978. The labor force participation for older people, who should be retiring- that’s going up. But the labor force participation for younger people, who should be entering the work force- that’s going down

Why can’t we produce full-time jobs for these millions of Americans who are working part time but who want full-time jobs? And the answer is- because we’re not creating full-time jobs. We’re really creating part-time jobs. And I believe a lot of these jobs have to do with an anticipation of a robust holiday shopping season and a robust 2015. Because everybody is convinced that we have this recovery that businesses are gearing up to prepare for. And I think they’re gearing up for a huge disappointment. I’ve described the recovery as a mirage, and the closer we get to when it’s supposed to start, I think the more people will see it for what it is. It is a fantasy, it is not a reality…

This is supposedly the best year for job creation since 1999- this is what the media is saying. Well if this is really the case, if this is the best year for job creation, why is the shopping season so poor? And why did the Republicans just win in a landslide in these mid-term elections that just happened, when the voters said the reason they were voting Republican, is because they were frustrated by a weak economy. They felt the economy was going in the wrong direction. Well everybody is so excited about this “miracle”- this economic miracle of a recovery- except for the people who are supposedly living in the miracle. Because to them, it’s not a dream, it is a nightmare.

Noting that Friday was 18 years to the day that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan gave his “irrational exuberance” speech, Schiff warned about the new “irrational exuberance” in America that easily surpasses 1996’s version. From the vlog:

If we’re going to talk about irrational exuberance in the markets, eighteen years ago is nothing compared to the irrational exuberance that we have today. Today, we are off the charts irrational and exuberant considering the enormity of the problem…

None of the so-called experts who are talking about the “economic miracle” and “these amazing numbers” and how “our economy is the envy of the world”- none of these guys saw the problems at the peak in 2000. They didn’t see the problems in the housing market or the coming financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. So they have a lousy track record when it comes to identifying in advance the problems that underlie the economy. And I think the problems that are underlying the economy now are bigger than ever, and the “experts” are blinder than ever.


“Does Today’s Overhyped Jobs Report Mean 1 Out of 4 Ain’t Bad?’
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: Swiss ‘No’ Vote May Signal Gold’s Bottom, Return Of Bull Trend

“Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected an initiative on Sunday that would have forced the country’s central bank to hold one-fifth of its assets in gold, a move that would have eroded its ability to conduct monetary policy.

Citing projections from results in 19 of the country’s 26 cantons, Swiss television said roughly 78% of voters opposed the initiative, dubbed ‘Save Our Swiss Gold.’ The gold initiative would have also barred the Swiss National Bank from selling gold in the future…”

-The Wall Street Journal website, November 30, 2014

I hadn’t been paying too much attention to that Swiss vote on gold. But after the mainstream financial news outlets cheered the Swiss citizens rejecting the initiative, I thought this could rank right up there with the United Kingdom selling off half its gold reserves in 1999 when the precious metal was valued at only $300 an ounce- a 20-year low at the time.

In other words, a move the Swiss may very well come to regret in the coming years.

To each their own, I always say.

And Wednesday, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, shared his thoughts about Switzerland’s rejection of the yellow metal. From his December 3 SchiffGold “Gold Videocast” entry on YouTube.com:

I actually believe that the “no” vote- from the long-term perspective- is even more bullish for the price of gold than had Switzerland voted to back their currency with 20 percent gold…

Thinking about it from a historical perspective, if there’s a chance that we saw the lows for the entire gold move on Sunday night, it would be ironic, and then I think makes a lot of sense, that the Swiss “no” vote on adopting even a modified gold standard would mark the low point for gold. Just like you have the Bank of England dumping a bunch of gold at the lows, I mean, central banks or actions around central banks sometimes mark key points. And the fact that the Swiss said “no” to gold, “we don’t want it,” that may be the day that gold actually bottomed out and now we’re resuming the bull trend. Only time will tell whether that is the case. But again, if it’s not the absolute bottom, I think it’s close enough not to worry about it, and I think that people need to be buying the gold that the Swiss citizens just told their bank not to buy. And not only the gold, silver. Because if gold goes up, silver’s going up. So buy both metals.


“Gold Videocast: Swiss Franc No Longer a Safe Haven
and a Possible Bottom in Gold”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Boston Globe: We Need Financial ‘Doomsayers’ Like Jeremy Grantham

“Legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham, chairman of the global investment management firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), said in a recent letter to shareholders we are now witnessing the first global bubble in history, covering all asset classes. ‘From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it’s bubble time!’ Grantham adds, ‘Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that ‘they don’t make any more land,’ and that ‘with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,’ and ‘private equity will continue to drive the markets.'”

-Christopher E. Hill, Boom2Bust.com, June 14, 2007

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know I blog regularly about “crash prophets” Marc Faber, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff- individuals well-known in financial/investing circles who correctly-predicted the global economic crisis that reared its ugly head back in 2008.

Why do I like reading and writing about their investment activities/recommendations?

From this blog’s “About” page:

“Vice President Dick Cheney says that his boss, President George W. Bush, has no need to apologize to the American people for not doing more to head off the financial calamity, saying no one saw the crisis coming.

During an interview Thursday with The Associated Press in his West Wing office, Cheney defended the administration’s performance on an economy that is growing weaker daily and which recently collapsed in spectacular fashion. Cheney said that ‘nobody anywhere was smart enough to figure it out.'”

-Associated Press, January 8, 2009

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Who are the “Crash Prophets?”

Contrary to the former Vice President’s assertions, a small number of individuals did see the current economic crisis coming. Among them were prominent investors, advisors, and money managers who, despite being ridiculed by their so-called “peers,” bravely warned others that a financial storm was coming. Perhaps their now-discredited colleagues should have known better, for these same persons also have impressive track records when it comes to calling the markets. Today, the “Crash Prophets” are positioning their or their clients’ money and continue to share their insights for what they see is more financial turbulence ahead.

Others are also now recognizing the worth of what the “crash prophets” have to say. Writing about British-born investment strategist Jeremy Grantham and his latest quarterly investment letter (I blogged about it here on November 20), columnist Carlo Rotella for The Boston Globe penned the following on the paper’s website on November 22:

Grantham’s ice-bath clarity, coming from a self-described fat cat, gives me some faint hope that the currently infantile conversation about economics and the planet being conducted by our money-handlers and elected leaders, many of them awash in the oil money that lubricates our political system, might someday advance beyond the notion that we can’t do anything about the long term for fear of inhibiting short-term growth.

Clear, forceful, disciplined thinking like Grantham’s seems obvious when you read it, but it makes much of what everybody else is saying on the same subject seem twisted and bizarre. Grantham’s quarterly letters, wry and measured in tone and solidly based on well-presented data, feel like an antidote to the magical thinking purveyed by Congress and hysterically optimistic stock-pickers.

Grantham’s long-view investment philosophy centers on the principle that prices eventually revert to the mean, and his bemused view of human nature centers on a similar reversion to the behavioral mean. We want to hear good news and assume that present conditions will persist, we tend to be bad with numbers and uncertainty, and we take comfort in short-term-oriented herd behavior of the sort that characterizes the financial industry. We need doomsayers like Grantham to counteract these tendencies.

Yes, we do need “doomsayers” like Jeremy Grantham to counteract the Pollyannish tendencies of many Americans.

Do they actually believe the same people who brought us the 2008 financial crisis and so-called “Great Recession” were actually able to “fix” that mess?

I, for one, hope to be fairly “insulated” from the Pollyannas when the balloon finally goes up, because I’ve seen how this crowd reacts WTSHTF. And it ain’t pretty.

By the way, did I mention Dick Cheney was a former client of Grantham’s?

“Nobody anywhere was smart enough to figure it out.”

Rotella’s November 22 piece- “Why we need financial doomsayers”- is a good read (don’t expect much investment intel although Grantham’s U.S. stock bubble-crash warning is touched on), which you can view in its entirety on the Globe website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Peter Schiff: Gold Will ‘Take A Rocket Ship Back Up’ And Eclipse $5,000

Kitco News anchor Daniela Cambone got the chance to speak to Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff on November 18. The “crash prophet” who correctly-predicted the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis was at the Grand Cayman Liberty Forum, and here’s what the long-time gold bull had to say about the precious metal. From their exchange:

CAMBONE: So let’s tie this back into gold now. What’s your outlook for the metal? I know you’ve been bullish on the metal. Do you continue to be?
SCHIFF: Yes. I’m bullish. You know, it’s hard to call the short term obviously and people now are trying to say, “Oh Peter, you know, you were saying gold was going to go to $5,000.” It’s going to go to $5,000. And in fact, I looked at some of my CNBC interviews and I was predicting $5,000 when gold was $500. So, it’s not like I just started doing it when it was at $900. Right? I’ve had that target on my mind for some time. And I think we’re going to eclipse it. And I think when this decline is over-and it’s been 2 or 3 years since gold hit its high around $1,900- I think it’s going to rise faster than before. Normally markets go down- they take the stairs up and the elevator down. Well I think that gold is going to take a rocket ship back up, because I think when all the people who have been shorting gold and selling gold realize that they’ve got it wrong, and they want to buy it back- it’s just not there. Because I think the real gold- all the gold that was dumped out of ETFs- I think it’s sitting in vaults in Russia and China, and it’s never going to see the light of day again. So when the buyers want it back, it’s not going to be there…

Schiff proclaimed later:

This is the best fundamental environment I’ve ever seen for gold. And also, I do believe that the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are numbered, and when the dollar is no longer accepted as the reserve currency, what’s going to take its place? It’s not going to be the euro. It’s not going to be the yen. I think it’s going to be gold. I think the world is going to go back to gold…


“Gold Will Take Rocket Ship Back Up – Peter Schiff | Kitco News”
Gold discussion starts at 3:44
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff And Axel Merk Talk Gold

I’ve been so busy lately I didn’t realize Peter Schiff’s Euro Pacific Precious Metals had been rebranded as SchiffGold. And earlier today, I spotted a new Gold Videocast published on SchiffGold.com in which Axel Merk is interviewed. The topic? Gold. From the website:

In this SchiffGold exclusive video, Peter Schiff sits with Axel Merk at the recent New Orleans Investment Conference to discuss gold investing in the midst of the currency wars. Like Peter, Axel was one of the few analysts to warn of the 2008 financial crisis and he remains one of the few analysts independent from the mainstream “recovery” consensus. Their conversation covers the history of gold’s price performance, the upcoming Swiss Gold referendum, the role of physical bullion in a portfolio, and much more.

I found their discussion about gold’s victorious outcome in a currency war and ownership of physical gold particularly interesting. Especially when Peter noted:

It’s not that people want to do something illegal but people fear that the government may do something illegal in the future, may do something oppressive in the future. They might want to confiscate gold but they can’t confiscate it if they don’t know where you have it. If you have it in a brokerage account, they know where it is and they can take it. But if you have it buried somewhere or in a safe, they can’t get at it.

Good stuff, which you can read (full transcript provided) and watch in its entirety on the SchiffGold website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Warns Of Coming Recession, QE 4

It’s been pretty busy around here as I play catch-up on my different Internet projects. But I did get the chance last night to view the latest entry on “crash prophet” Peter Schiff’s The Schiff Report YouTube.com video blog. What is the CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital predicting these days? Another U.S. recession and QE 4. Schiff warned:

When this illusion collapses, this fantasy of a U.S. economic recovery- because everybody believes there’s no recession anywhere in sight, that we’re years away from a U.S. recession- when in fact, another recession is right around the corner. And in fact, it will be worse than the recession that we had in 2008, 2009, if the Fed does not come in with QE 4…

I expect Janet Yellen to react to this coming recession the way Ben Bernanke reacted to the last one. The way Alan Greenspan reacted to the last one. Because that’s the only playbook we’ve got. And remember, when this recession starts, they can’t start with rate cuts. Rates are at zero. You can’t cut from zero. All they can do is revamp QE. And believe me, it’s going to have to be a lot bigger than QE 3. QE 4 is going to have to be bigger than QE 3 for the same reason QE 3 had to be bigger than QE 2- the economy builds up a tolerance. The more addicted to QE, the more QE you need to get any kind of result. And this last result was minimal in the real economy. I mean, yes- the Fed was able to get the stock market to go up, but the real economy never experienced any real economic growth. The average American is worse off today than when QE began. By far. Incomes are down. Real employment is down. Net worth is down. Poverty is up. Government dependency is up. The cost of living is up. Nothing has improved, except maybe the level of optimism on Wall Street…

This crisis is not really going to be about a credit crisis. Not private credit. It’s going to be about debt. Sovereign credit. It’s going to be about the dollar. A currency crisis. A sovereign crisis. Which is going to be very different than the crisis we had in 2008. It’s a crisis of an excess of QE. Of an overdose of QE. That’s the one that’s coming. That’s the one that we have to prepare for. That’s the one that I have been warning about since the beginning…


“The Scary Truth Behind the Halloween Rally”
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By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Marc Faber, Peter Schiff Issue Another Bubble Warning

“I think we are in a gigantic financial asset bubble.”

-Marc Faber on Bloomberg Television’s Street Smart, January 14, 2014

“We have an entire economy that is supported on a foundation of bubbles.”

-Peter Schiff in a MoneyShow Las Vegas presentation, May 12, 2014

These days, the U.S. economic landscape feels a lot like 2007- if you ask me. There’s a tremendous amount of bullish sentiment out there from rising asset prices. Likewise, a number of threats are simmering in the economy and larger financial system- as was the situation seven years ago.

And just like in 2007, “crash prophets” Marc Faber and Peter Schiff are again sounding the alarm on asset bubbles.

Remember- while most other financial types were predicting clear sailing ahead back then for the U.S. economy and housing market, Faber and Schiff correctly-forecast the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and the financial crisis that reared its ugly head by the autumn of 2008.

Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, wrote the following on his company’s website Wednesday:

The truth is the Fed knows the economy needs zero percent rates to stay afloat, which is why they have yet to pull the trigger. The last serious Fed campaign to raise interest rates led to the bursting of the housing bubble in 2006 and the financial crisis that followed in 2008. This occurred despite the slow and predictable manner in which the rates were raised, by 25 basis points every six weeks for two years (a kind of reverse tapering). At the time, Greenspan knew that the housing market and the economy had become dependent on low interest rates, and he did not want to deliver a shock to fragile markets with an abrupt normalization. But his measured and gradual approach only added more air to the real estate bubble, producing an even greater crisis than what might have occurred had he tightened more quickly.

The Fed is making an even graver mistake now if it thinks the economy can handle a measured reduction in QE. Similar to Greenspan, Bernanke understood that asset prices and the economy had become dependent on QE, and he hoped that by slowly tapering QE the economy and the markets could withstand the transition. But I believe these bets will lose just as big as Greenspan’s. The end of QE will prick the current bubbles in stocks, real estate, and bonds, just as higher rates pricked the housing bubble in 2006. And as was the case with the measured rate hikes, the tapering process will only add to the severity of the inevitable bust

According to “Doctor Doom” Marc Faber, the extent of the bubbles goes even further than what Schiff identified. Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box earlier today, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report warned viewers:

Today, the good news is we have a bubble in everything, everywhere- with very few exceptions. And, eventually, there will be a problem when these asset markets begin to perform poorly. The question is- what will be the catalyst? It could be a rise in interest rates not engineered by the Fed, because I think they’ll keep interests rates at zero on the Fed funds rate for a very long time… We could have essentially a break in bond markets at some point. We also could have a strong dollar. A strong dollar has already happened in the last two months signifies that international liquidity is tightening. And when that happens, usually it’s not very good for asset markets.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Schiff, Peter. “A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal.” Euro Pacific Capital. 17 Sep. 2014. (http://www.europac.net/commentaries/new_fed_playbook_new_normal). 19 Sep. 2014.

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Peter Schiff: ‘Economy Is Careening Towards Recession Right Now’

Yesterday, “crash prophet” Peter Schiff added a new entry to his YouTube video blog- The Schiff Report. The CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital warned viewers that the U.S. economy is heading towards recession. Schiff- who correctly-called the bursting of the housing bubble in addition to the 2008 economic crisis- began his video blog entry by talking about Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen saying Wednesday interest rates would be kept low for a “considerable time”:

Now, in my mind, what the Fed really means by “considerable” period is indefinitely, or forever. Because I don’t think the Fed can raise interest rates. In fact, I don’t even think they can end QE without precipitating a recession. And I think they’ve already set those balls in motion. And I think the economy is careening towards recession right now. The Fed just hasn’t figured that out yet. But the Fed certainly doesn’t want to help push it over the edge by raising rates. So it has to stall, so it comes up with this “considerable” period…

So how much time is going to transpire between the end of QE, which is scheduled to end now in, I think, six weeks? How much time will transpire between the end of QE and the next crisis, the next recession? See, I don’t think there will be enough time for the Fed to even begin the next set of rate hikes…

So if the economy can barely grow, with all the QE, what’s going to happen when you take it away? And again, all this growth is phony- it’s not real growth. But in order to have the phony growth, you need the QE. You take the QE away, you take the phony economic growth away, and you are right back in recession…

And so, whatever Janet Yellen and the Fed, whatever they’re saying now about how confident they are that they might be able to raise interest rates after some considerable period of time- but we don’t know what that means- it’s all based on their rosy assessment of the economy that isn’t going to materialize. The economy is going to rollover back to recession before the first rate hike ever comes. And so it’s not going to come because now they’re going to have to ramp the QE back up. And maybe at that point the people will figure out the box that we’re in. If they figure out that it’s interest rates at zero forever, and the only question is how much QE can the Fed do but it can never raise rates, then the bottom drops out of the dollar.

Schiff concluded yesterday’s vlog entry by calling the Fed’s bluff:

So again, all this is talk. They’re not going to shrink the balance sheet. They can’t. They’re not going to raise interest rates. Because they can’t. And before it comes, before this considerable time period comes to an end, we’re going to be back in recession or we’re going to be close enough to recession that the Fed feels compelled to take action to stimulate the economy. And how is it going to stimulate the economy? Well, rates are going to still be at zero. The only way to stimulate it is to ramp up the QE that she just tapered back. And how much is she going to have to ramp it up to? I think it’s going to be more than the original $85 billion. Maybe $100 billion, $150 billion per month.


“Yellen Barks on Rates, But Will Not Rise”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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