Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff On Gold: ‘We’re Going To Have A Big Rally Probably Beginning Here In The Second Half Of 2014’

It’s been a little over a month since I last blogged about “crash prophet” and head of Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff. But tonight, I’ll be talking about the first-ever installment of Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast (which replaces the monthly Peter Schiff’s Gold Newsletter). Schiff, who also heads up Euro Pacific Precious Metals, told videocast viewers on July 9:

I think that the sellers have been exhausted in the gold market, and the buying continues. And when we run out of sellers- again, there’s only one direction for the price of gold. And I think once all of these speculators that have been shorting gold discover that their premise is wrong- that we’re not going to get this vibrant recovery. And that we’re not going to get less QE, we’re going to get more. That we’re not going to get rate hikes, but the Fed is going to keep interest rates at zero in order to prop up this phony, bubble economy that they’ve inflated. You’re going to have to see this mad rush from all the short sellers who are going to be anxious to buy back their money losing positions. But that’s going to be a lot more difficult, because there’s not going to be a lot of gold around. Because a lot of the gold that was liquidated in the second half of 2013 is not going to be available for sale in the second half of 2014. That gold was probably purchased by entities that never intend to sell it.

So I think we’re going to have a real short squeeze and we’re going to have a big rally probably beginning here in the second half of 2014. But maybe gathering momentum as the year comes to a close.

Schiff, who is credited for calling the U.S. housing bust and 2008 economic crisis, added:

I expect the price of silver to rise. Other precious metals- platinum- and commodities in general are all responding to the inflation that the Fed is creating to prop up this phony economy. All the while denying that inflation is a problem.


“Gold Videocast: Gold’s 2014 Half-Time Report”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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2.9 Percent GDP Contraction Casts Doubt On Sustainability Of Economic ‘Recovery’

Remember that U.S. GDP “hiccup” from the first quarter?

It’s been revised. And let me just tell you, barf-o-rama baby. Barf-o-rama.

From a Reuters piece on the CNBC website earlier today:

The U.S. economy contracted at a much steeper pace than previously estimated in the first quarter, but there are indications that growth has since rebounded strongly.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy’s worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.

While the economy’s woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Wow, did I just read that last part right? Usually the MSM plays along with that oft-used weather excuse as bad government economic reports are concerned.

The general feeling I’m getting tonight from mainstream media outlets is one of “don’t worry, be happy.” Of course, damage control is in overdrive. Jeffry Bartash reported on the MarketWatch website:

The revised GDP report briefly stunned Wall Street and clearly unsettled the White House. President Obama’s chief economic adviser, Jason Furman, cast doubt on the report and argued the economy is much stronger than the first-quarter contraction implied.

Investors, for their part, shrugged off the backward-looking report. The economy appears to have rebounded in the second quarter and economists polled by MarketWatch predict growth will turn positive again, with a 3.8% increase…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

3.8 percent increase in GDP in the second quarter? After revisions? It will be interesting to see if they’re right.

Personally, I feel that abysmal first quarter GDP report is a worrisome sign the sustained economic “recovery” we keep being told about is getting long in the tooth.

“Taper” to go full reverse soon, like “crash prophet” Peter Schiff has been predicting?

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

“Bad to worse: US economy shrank more than expected in Q1.” Reuters. 25 June 2014. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101787838). 25 June 2014.

Bartash, Jeffry. “Economy’s stumble in first quarter historic.” MarketWatch. 25 June 2014. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-growth-contracted-29-in-first-quarter-2014-06-25). 25 June 2014.

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Peter Schiff: ‘We Have An Entire Economy That Is Supported On A Foundation Of Bubbles’

Tonight I watched Peter Schiff’s presentation at the MoneyShow Las Vegas back on May 12, 2014. The CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital shared his current assessment of the U.S. financial landscape in “Too Big to Bail: Why the Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last”- as well as where he thinks we’re heading. Schiff warned attendees:

There is no economic recovery in the United States at all. There is no evidence of an economic recovery. The U.S. economy is in far worse shape than it was on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. We have never been in as worse shape as we are right now. But they say, “Whoa! But the stock market went up.” Yeah, of course the stock market went up. You print enough money, you can make the stock market go up. Yes, the Federal Reserve succeeded in reflating the stock market bubble. But that’s all that it did. That isn’t evidence of a strong economy. Stock prices went up from 2002 to 2007. Does that mean we had a sound economy? No. We were on the verge of a complete implosion. The main difference though between the stock market bubble that we have today and the one that blew up, let’s say, in 2000, is that fewer individuals are participating. This is the bubble for the 1 percent. This is for the hedge funds, the private equity guys… The overwhelming concentration of buyers are very wealthy people. The average American is not participating in the stock market to the extent that he was in the 1990s. And so the Fed is not getting the boost to consumption that you would normally have from the wealth effect because a lot of people aren’t feeling the effects of the wealth because they don’t own stocks.

The same thing is happening in the real estate bubble, which the Fed has managed to reflate. The difference again between the real estate bubble we have now and the real estate bubble that popped in 2007 is again- the average American isn’t participating. Home ownership rates are at 19-year lows. You have hedge funds and private equity companies that are buying up real estate. Last month, I think 43 percent of all the properties purchased in America were purchased for cash. These are not typical Americans buying houses to live in. These are investors buying houses to flip, buying houses to rent out. This is not a healthy market. It is an extremely speculative real estate market thanks to the Federal Reserve.

So the Federal Reserve has managed to reflate two bubbles simultaneously.

And of course, the biggest bubble of them all is the bubble in the bond market.

So we have an entire economy that is supported on a foundation of bubbles…


“Peter Schiff at Las Vegas Moneyshow 2014”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Warns Of Coming Inflation, Accompanying Propaganda

“Crash prophet” Peter Schiff sees inflation getting worse in America. And with it, Washington, the Fed, and the mainstream media spinning rising prices as something that’s beneficial for the general public. The Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist added a new entry Tuesday on his YouTube video blog The Schiff Report, and warned viewers of the following:

It’s going to get worse. And, what is the Fed going to do about it? Because the problem is, no matter how high that inflation number gets, they can never admit it’s a problem. Because if they admit that it’s a problem, they’ve got to do something about it. But they can’t do anything about it. Because if they want to fight inflation, what tools do they have? Just one. They’ve got to raise interest rates, which means they’ve got to end quantitative easing. And in order to raise interest rates, they’ve got to start selling their bonds and their mortgages back into the market. That will collapse the real estate market, collapse the stock market, send the economy into a sharp recession, and bring about a financial crisis worse than 2008. So because they can’t do that, they can’t do anything. So they’re going to have to tolerate inflation, no matter how high it gets. They’re going to have to convince us that it’s good for us, no matter how high it gets. They’re going to say, “Oh, well, maybe it’s transitory,” “It’s because of the weather,” “Oh, you know, we had such low inflation for so long, we need a few years of higher inflation to even it all out.” Who knows what kind of excuses Janet Yellen is going to come up with to rationalize why whatever the inflation number is- no matter how high it is- it’s always going to be a good thing?

But I wonder if the media- if the guys at Bloomberg or the guys at The New York Times or the AP or the Financial Times- will ever see through this charade. Will they ever see through this smokescreen and come out and call the Fed out on this? Will they ever say, “You know what, we’ve got too much inflation- this is not good. Do something about it.” And when the Fed doesn’t do something about it, that’s going to be a big problem for the dollar. Because that’s when people realize that this is QE Infinity, that inflation is never going to stop, that the dollar’s value is going to erode away in perpetuity. That’s when the bottom drops out of the market. That’s when the real crisis comes in. Because now the dollar really starts to cave, and puts more pressure on the bond market. That means the Fed has to print a lot more money. A lot more dollars that nobody wants to buy the Treasuries that nobody wants to keep the market from collapsing. That accelerates the inflationary spiral, and puts the Fed in a real box. Because then, it just can’t print the dollar into oblivion. It can’t turn it into monopoly money. Then it has to slam on the breaks. Then it has to really jack up interest rates. Not just a few hundred basis points- ten percent, fifteen percent, twenty percent. Paul Volcker style. Of course, the medicine won’t go down nearly as smoothly as it did back then. Not that it was so great tasting- we had a pretty bad recession in 1980. But that’s nothing compared to what we’re going to go through, because we have a lot more debt now than we had then- it’s not even close. We don’t have the viable economy. We don’t have the trade surpluses or the current accounts surpluses. And we don’t have a federal government that has a long-term financing on the national debt. It’s all financed with T-bills. And we have all these adjustable rate mortgages. We have all these corporations, individuals that are so levered-up. We’ve got all these student loans and credit card debt. We have all this stuff that we didn’t have back in the 1980s that we’re going to have to deal with- thanks to the Fed.


“Media Reports Rising Food Prices as Positive News”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Bearish Peter Schiff Debates Bullish Nouriel Roubini

“How long was I warning about the housing bubble and the financial crisis before it happened? It was years. It takes a while for these problems to surface. We do have an inflation problem. We do have a bubble. And commodity prices are rising. Gold prices are rising.”

-Peter Schiff, debating with noted “bear”-turned-“bull” Nouriel Roubini on CNBC’s Fast Money yesterday


“Roubini vs. Schiff: Who’s “Doomier” on US Economy?
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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‘Crash Prophets’ Page Streamlined, Updated

Just wanted to let you know that this weekend I streamlined and updated Survival And Prosperity’s “Crash Prophets” page.

In case you’ve never visited it, “Crash Prophets” is:

Where the latest investment activities/recommendations of the “Crash Prophets”- Dr. Marc Faber, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff- that can be found through freely-available sources on the Internet are compiled.

Hope readers are finding this page informative.

Christopher E. Hill
Editor

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Monday, April 28th, 2014 Crash Prophets, Housekeeping, Investing No Comments

Peter Schiff On Gold: ‘Most Likely Prices Have Bottomed’

A little more than a week ago, Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff- who correctly called the housing bust and 2008 economic crisis- told CNBC viewers that gold prices would eventually head north of $5,000 an ounce (blogged about here).

Schiff did an e-mail interview with MarketWatch this week, and the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals talked more about the yellow metal. From that exchange:

Q: What would you say to investors who are discouraged by gold’s performance so far this year? (Futures are prices up around 7% year to date, but only partially making up for last year’s plunge.)

Be patient. Many investors in the 90’s believed that gold was a dead asset class. But in the 10 years from 2001 to 2011, gold increased almost 900%. The moves come in waves.

Q: With prices currently under $1,300 an ounce, have prices hit bottom for this year? Is gold a bargain at these levels — is it a good time to buy now? Please explain.

Most likely prices have bottomed, as too many speculators are looking for lower prices. The fundamental case for gold has also never been stronger. From a gold short seller’s perspective, this will prove to be the equivalent of a perfect storm. Their losses will be severe…

I’ve been following gold closely for a decade now. I can’t remember any time in those last ten years when the amount of hate directed at the precious metal was ever greater. Particularly in the mainstream financial media and accompanying reader comment sections. Just check out some of the comments in the MarketWatch article I’ve been discussing if you don’t believe me.

I can’t help but wonder sometimes if paid “trolls” aren’t out in force these days in the various comment areas and forums with the mission of talking down gold and its highest-profile supporters at any chance they get.

Then again, many of these comments could just be coming from individuals who fear a rising gold price for some reason or another.

“Where you stand is where you sit”?

I just know one thing. I don’t see stocks catching nearly the same kind of flak as this particular “shiny lump of metal,” as one “correspondent” recently called gold.

Like Mr. Schiff pointed out- before the recent pullback, the price of one ounce of that “shiny lump of metal” increased almost 900 percent in the decade prior.

Anyone want to give me their “shiny lumps of metal”? It’s going to plummet past $1,000 to almost nothing anyway- if one believes what’s claimed in many comments and forums these days.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

Saefong, Myra P. “Peter Schiff: Reckless Fed may push gold to $5,000.” MarketWatch.com. 25 Apr. 2014. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/peter-schiff-reckless-fed-may-push-gold-to-5000-2014-04-25?pagenumber=1). 25 Apr. 2014.

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Peter Schiff Predicts Gold Going Higher Than $5,000 An Ounce

Peter Schiff, the CEO and Chief Strategist over at Euro Pacific Capital, appeared on the CNBC TV show Futures Now on April 15. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and Great Recession, told viewers:

I’ve been buying gold for the same reason for the last decade, and it’s because central banks are creating too much money, there’s too much inflation, interest rates are too low, and so I want to store my purchasing power in something that central banks can’t print. Meanwhile, during that time period, gold has gone from under $300 an ounce to a high of $1,900. We’ve pulled back. I think we are headed much, much higher, because they are not going to stop these presses. They are going to run them in overdrive…

I don’t know the time period. They’re just going to trend higher. They’re going to go a lot higher. I’ve said $5,000. They’ll go higher than that.


“I’m Off Base, You’re Not Even in the Ballpark!”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Predicts Future Fed Moves

Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital released a new entry Monday on The Schiff Report YouTube vlog. The “crash prophet” talked about a number of financial topics, including future activity by the U.S. central bank. Schiff predicted:

I think that with the weakening in the stock market, the softness we’re seeing now in the real estate market- with the fact that we’re going to be getting weaker jobs numbers in the spring that cannot be rationalized away based on the weather- the Fed is going to have come forward at some point and acknowledge which should have already been obvious. That they were mistaken. They were overly-optimistic on their assessment of the economy. That for whatever reason they’ll come up with an excuse to save face- they can blame it on some external factor- but the Fed is going to have to come out and they’re going to have to halt the tapering process, and ultimately reverse it.

How much time there will be between the pause and the reversal?

I don’t know. I don’t think it will be more than a couple of meetings, at best. But that’s what’s coming….

Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bubble and subsequent burst along with the 2008 global economic crisis, went on to speculate what all this might mean for gold and stocks.


“Warmer Weather’s Failure to Stoke Jobs Chills Stocks”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Peter Schiff: No Recovery, Just An Illusion Of Prosperity

I first started paying attention to Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff just prior to picking up his book Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (now Crash Proof 2.0, second edition) shortly after its early 2007 release. While some of the calls he made in that controversial text are still playing out, others have already come to fruition.

Subsequently, Schiff has been given credit for correctly-calling the U.S. housing bubble and its burst, and the 2008 global economic crisis.

Being one of Survival And Prosperity’s “crash prophets,” his latest investment recommendations are chronicled on this blog. As are his economic analyses and forecasts as well.

Here’s a recent breakdown of what Schiff sees going on with the U.S. economy and larger financial system, courtesy of a March 21 commentary entitled “Debt and Taxes” that’s posted on his Euro Pacific Capital website:

The last few years have proven that there is no line Washington will not cross in order to keep bubbles from popping. Just 10 years ago many of the analysts now crowing about the perfect conditions would have been appalled by policies that have been implemented to create them. The Fed has held interest rates at zero for five consecutive years, it has purchased trillions of dollars of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, and the Federal government has stimulated the economy through four consecutive trillion-dollar annual deficits. While these moves may once have been looked on as something shocking…now anything goes.

But the new monetary morality has nothing to do with virtue, and everything to do with necessity. It is no accident that the concept of “inflation” has experienced a dramatic makeover during the past few years. Traditionally, mainstream discussion treated inflation as a pestilence best vanquished by a strong economy and prudent bankers. Now it is widely seen as a pre-condition to economic health. Economists are making this bizarre argument not because it makes any sense, but because they have no other choice.

America is trying to borrow its way out of recession. We are creating debt now in order to push up prices and create the illusion of prosperity. To do this you must convince people that inflation is a good thing…even while they instinctively prefer low prices to high. But rising asset prices do little to help the underlying economy. That is why we have been stuck in what some economists are calling a “jobless recovery.” The real reason it’s jobless is because it’s not a real recovery! So while the current booms in stocks and condominiums have been gifts to financial speculators and the corporate elite, average Americans can only watch from the sidewalks as the parade passes them by. That’s why sales of Mercedes and Maseratis are setting record highs while Fords and Chevrolets sit on showroom floors. Rising prices to do not create jobs, increase savings or expand production. Instead all we get is debt, which at some point in the future must be repaid

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Which at some point in the future must be repaid”

Good luck trying to get your average American in 2014 to wrap their head around that crucial concept.

Once again, I agree with Schiff’s observation of what is going on all around us.

“Illusion of prosperity” is a fine choice of words here, and makes sense that I find a fine economic blog by the same name good reading.

As certain as the “Big One” will eventually hit California, so must our nation’s “financial reckoning day” arrive for all this debt we’ve accrued for some short-term “prosperity.”

You can read Schiff’s entire commentary on the Euro Pacific Capital website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Peter Schiff: Gold Fundamentals ‘Great Right Now’ As U.S. Recovery A ‘Myth’

Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff appeared on the CNBC show Futures Now on March 20. The financial commentator and author talked about a number of issues, including the Federal Reserve, gold, and inflation. On gold, Schiff told viewers:

The fundamentals have favored higher gold prices all along. The fundamentals for gold were great at the beginning of 2013. They were great at the end. They’re great right now. It’s just that most people don’t understand how great they are. They believe the myth of the U.S. recovery. They believe that the Fed can actually unwind its balance sheet, that it can end QE, that it can raise interest rates, and that the economy is going to keep on expanding. None of that is going to happen. It’s all fantasy.

We’re going to have QE Infinity. There is massive inflation. And it’s going to manifest itself in substantially higher gold prices.

The ensuing short debate between Schiff and economist/investor/hedge-fund manager Mark Dow about inflation was also interesting to watch. Perhaps those two can set up something “official” down the road.


“Mark Dow vs. Peter Schiff on Gold, Inflation, Fed”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Record Net Worth Result Of Fed Blowing Bubbles In Housing, Stocks?

I was surfing the Internet last night when I read something about Americans’ net worth making a comeback. Neil Shah reported on The Wall Street Journal website Thursday:

Americans’ wealth hit the highest level ever last year, according to data released Thursday, reflecting a surge in the value of stocks and homes that has boosted the most affluent U.S. households.

The net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations rose 14% last year, or almost $10 trillion, to $80.7 trillion, the highest on record, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday. Even adjusted for inflation using the Fed’s preferred gauge of prices, U.S. household net worth—the value of homes, stocks and other assets minus debts and other liabilities—hit a fresh record…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

I can’t say I’m surprised to hear of this rebound in net worth. After all, Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff has been warning for a couple of years now that the Federal Reserve is inflating new asset bubbles via tremendous amounts of stimulus (quantitative easing) to spark some sort of economic recovery in the wake of the bursting of the housing bubble and global financial crisis that reared its head in the fall of 2008. I blogged back on September 18, 2012:

In his September 14 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, Schiff, who correctly-predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble and 2008 global economic crisis, explained to viewers what QE3 was really about:

This is the plan that Ben Bernanke has. Ben Bernanke’s plan to revive the U.S. economy, and create jobs, is to inflate another housing bubble. That’s it. That’s what the Fed’s got. That’s what it came up with. As if the last housing bubble worked out so well for the economy, that the Fed wants an encore…

How is another housing bubble going to solve anything. Now one thing that Ben Bernanke hasn’t figured out yet- it ain’t gonna work. No matter how much he tries, no matter how much air he blows in to that housing market, he’s not going to reflate that bubble. There are simply too many holes in it, and there is no precedent for relating a busted bubble. More likely, all that cheap money is going to go someplace else…

Schiff asserted the Federal Reserve was trying to inflate another housing bubble.

Instead, there’s suggestions both housing and the stock market look “frothy” these days.

Suppose the Fed did in fact want to inflate new asset bubbles. If the central bank aimed to spread the wealth around in an attempt to jump-start the economy, it doesn’t seem to be happening. Shah noted in that WSJ article:

But the rebound, while powerful, has been tilted in a way that limits the upside for the broader U.S. economy and is increasingly leaving behind many middle- and lower-income Americans…

That means that even as wealth increases, it’s increasingly going to the affluent.

In addition to the affluent, much of the wealth surge is going to older Americans. Both groups are less likely to spend their gains and more likely to save, Mr. Emmons said. Meanwhile, sheer demographics—the retirement of the baby boomers and America’s aging population—are increasing the ranks of the nation’s savers.

The upshot: While American households overall are getting wealthier, the benefits for the economy may prove limited until such improvements reach more people.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

“The benefits for the economy may prove limited until such improvements reach more people.”

I fear another financial crisis will have paid us a visit before such prosperity is achieved.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Shah, Neil “U.S. Household Net Worth Hits Record High.” The Wall Street Journal. 6 Mar. 2014. (link). 7 Mar. 2014.

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Peter Schiff: U.S. GDP Fell From 2.8 Percent In 2012 To 1.9 Percent In 2013

“Investor Warren Buffett says the economy continues the steady improvement that began in fall of 2009 and he remains optimistic despite Russia’s advance into Ukraine.

Buffett appeared on the business cable channel CNBC Monday morning after releasing an upbeat annual letter to his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shareholders over the weekend. Buffett is chairman and CEO of the Omaha, Neb., conglomerate.

Buffett said the reports he gets from Berkshire’s 80-odd subsidiaries in a variety of industries show that the economy is growing at a moderate rate, despite swings in investors’ mood.

“The American economy for five years has been moving at a fairly steady rate upwards —not as fast as people would like — but I think that absolutely continues now,” he said…”

-Associated Press, March 3, 2014

Well-known stock investor Warren Buffett has been bullish on the U.S. economy for some time now. Not so for a number of the “crash prophets,” including Peter Schiff. The Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist added a new entry Friday on his YouTube video blog The Schiff Report where he pointed out that U.S. GDP numbers for the past two years tell a different tale than the one Buffett shared with CNBC viewers this morning. Schiff observed:

The GDP numbers that were released today for the fourth quarter the government came back and revised down. It was a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. They originally told us the economy grew by 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter. And today, they revised that down to just 2.4 percent. 2.4 percent.

Now, if you look at the entire year of 2013, the GDP grew by 1.9 percent. For the year.

In 2012- the prior year- the GDP grew by 2.8 percent.

Now, wait a minute. President Obama said in his many speeches in late 2013 that this is the year the recovery became real. That we finally have the real recovery that he’s been promising.

Well wait a minute. If GDP in 2013 was up by 1.9 percent, but it was up by 2.8 percent in the year before when the recovery wasn’t real- how is the recovery more real when the economy is growing more slowly now than it was before?


“Recovery Fantasy Persists Despite Contrary Data”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Monday, March 3rd, 2014 Crash Prophets, GDP, Recovery No Comments

MarketWatch On Jim Rogers: ‘Signs Are Suggesting He’s Right In His Gloomy Prognostication On Food Supplies’

I started blogging about investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers back in the summer 2007, right after launching Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street.” Rogers- who correctly called the commodities rally in 1999- was already talking up agriculture as a great investment opportunity seven years ago.

Time and time again on this blog, I’ve noted how bullish the former investing partner of George Soros is about the sector.

And yesterday, the financial website MarketWatch concluded the Singapore-based investor might be on to something.

From Karen Friar on The Tell blog:

What makes today’s comments more pointed is that signs are suggesting he’s right in his gloomy prognostication on food supplies.

Severe weather of different kinds, production constraints and other factors are pushing up prices of beef, bread and other staples (read: 10 foods eating into your budget). Plus, California — the U.S.’s agricultural heartland — won’t get any irrigation water this summer, despite being gripped by a drought. That should end up hitting consumer wallets, too. And even the crisis in Ukraine could end up putting pressure on grain markets…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Naysayers love to bash Mr. Rogers and his investment predictions, trying to “call the game while it’s still in the early innings” (the same happens to fellow “crash prophets” Marc Faber and Peter Schiff- just look at the CNBC.com comments section underneath an article written about any one of the three). But I remember a British publication analyzing the outcome of his investing calls after he made that gloomy British pound forecast a few years back, and determining that more often than not Rogers is correct.

Chalk another one up for the CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc.? I think it’s a little too early still to give Rogers full credit, but based on his track record I have a feeling he’ll get this agriculture call right too.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Friar, Karen. “Jim Rogers: Want to make money? Drive a tractor.” The Tell. 25 Feb. 2014. (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/02/25/jim-rogers-want-to-make-money-drive-a-tractor/). 27 Feb. 2014.

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Peter Schiff’s Investment Advice Before The Fed Reverses, Increases QE

While I’m jonesing for a new entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, I did watch Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on CNBC’s Closing Bell on January 28. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis, told viewers the U.S. economy is actually doing “lousy” and that he thinks the Federal Reserve will reverse course on quantitative easing this year, increasing the levels of “stimulus.” When asked what one should do with their money, Schiff advised:

You should be buying gold. You should be buying mining stocks. You should be investing abroad. You should be getting out of the U.S. dollar. Because ultimately, that’s going to be the big casualty here. When the Fed surprises everybody and does more QE, and people realize the box that we’re in- that it’s QE Infinity, that there is no exit strategy, that exit is impossible, that it’s ever larger doses of this monetary heroin- the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar. You know, an economy that lives by QE dies by QE. We better be prepared for that.


“Yellen Will Reverse Taper and Increase QE”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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