real estate

Robert Shiller: ‘Neither Farmland Nor Housing Has Been A Great Place To Invest Money Over The Long Term’

Yale University Economics Professor Robert Shiller just torpedoed long-held notions about farmland and residential real estate in this country. The Nobel Prize winner, who correctly-called the dot-com and housing busts of the last decade, penned the following on The New York Times website on July 15:

Despite solid price increases over the last few years, land and homes have actually been disappointing investments. It’s worth considering why.

Let’s start by looking at the numbers. The best long-term data on land in the United States is for farmland, which is valuable in its own right and can also be considered a great reservoir that can be converted to housing and other purposes at opportune times.

Over the century from 1915 to 2015, though, the real value of American farmland (deflated by the Consumer Price Index) increased only 3.1 times, according to the Department of Agriculture. That comes to an average increase of only 1.1 percent a year– and with a growing population, that’s barely enough to keep per capita real land value unchanged.

According to my own data (relying on the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which I helped create), real home prices rose even more slowly over the same period — a total increase of 1.8 times, which comes to an average of only 0.6 percent a year.

What all that amounts to is that neither farmland nor housing has been a great place to invest money over the long term…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Neither farmland nor housing has been a great place to invest money over the long term”

Obviously, this goes contrary to what many Americans have believed all along.

However, the fact that farmland can produce income from crops should not be ignored.

Residential real estate may also offer benefits beyond property value. In my case, the single-family dwelling in the Chicago suburbs which my girlfriend and I own is a significant improvement in such areas as security and food production, for example, compared to our previous rental unit in a multi-family building on the city’s Northwest Side.

An interesting piece from Dr. Shiller, which you can read on the Times’ website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, July 20th, 2016 Agriculture, Crash Prophets, Farming, Food, Housing, Income, Investing, Security Comments Off on Robert Shiller: ‘Neither Farmland Nor Housing Has Been A Great Place To Invest Money Over The Long Term’

Peter Schiff: Obama, Federal Reserve, Government Have Failed As ‘This Economy Is A Disaster’

Economist, financial broker/dealer, and author Peter Schiff appeared on the Alex Jones Show last Friday. Schiff, who correctly-called last decade’s housing crash and recent global economic crisis, discussed a number of subjects with Jones, including Puerto’s Rico’s recent default/economic crisis and “modest” U.S. inflation numbers. The “crash prophet” said of the U.S. territory:

It’s never a problem until it is. So Puerto Rico is broke, but now it’s a problem because the creditors figured out that they’re broke. Well America is more broke than Puerto Rico. That’s a fact. It’s just that our creditors haven’t figured it out yet. But when they do, then Donald Trump is going to end up being right, because all we can do is default. And if we don’t default, if we print money- which now Trump is saying, “Oh, we don’t have to default because we can print.” Well printing is worse than default, because printing doesn’t just wipe out the bondholders, it wipes out anybody who hold U.S. dollars.

When asked by Alex Jones where all the inflation is being hidden, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital pointed out:

It’s actually hiding in plain sight because, because first of all, the inflation is all the money printing. That’s the definition. The consequence of inflation is that prices go up. But look, stock prices went way up. Real estate prices went back up. Rare art went back up. Collectible cars went back up. I mean, asset prices have gone up like crazy- that is inflation. And, of course, anybody who lives in America knows that the prices are going up. Look, rents are up about 8 percent year-over-year. Look how much health care costs have gone up. Utilities are going up. Look at the price of food. Have you bought a steak recently at a supermarket? Prices are going up. It’s just that the government is not doing an accurate job of reporting, and that is by design…. The standard of living is going down. Americans are working two or three jobs a piece. And they can barely make ends meet. You know, this economy is a disaster. And everyone wants to pretend that it’s great, because no one wants to admit that Obama is a complete failure, that the Federal Reserve was a complete failure, that everything that government has done has failed.


“Venezuela Is America’s Socialist Future”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, May 24th, 2016 Crash Prophets, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Defaults, Employment, Federal Reserve, Fiscal Policy, Food, Government, Health, Inflation, Main Street, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Stocks, Utilities Comments Off on Peter Schiff: Obama, Federal Reserve, Government Have Failed As ‘This Economy Is A Disaster’

Marc Faber: ‘Most Attractive Assets In My View Are Gold Shares And Oil And Gas Shares’

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the phone with the CNBC TV show Trading Nation last Wednesday. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report talked investment strategy, and shared the following with viewers:

My view is that in June, [the Federal Reserve] will not move, that they will not increase rates. And that the market will begin to perceive that the Fed wants to support asset markets, which they have stated on numerous occasions before. And that in that environment, gold, which from now on may correct maybe 5 percent or so, will start to move up again. I think an investor should understand, we don’t know how far central banks will move around the world. We need to be diversified. To own some real estate makes sense. To own some equities makes sense. To own some cash and bonds probably makes sense. And to own some precious metals makes sense. The most attractive assets in my view are gold shares and oil and gas shares. I think they still have significant upside potential this year.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Marc Faber on investment strategy”
CNBC Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, May 24th, 2016 Banking, Bonds, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Natural Resources, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber: ‘Most Attractive Assets In My View Are Gold Shares And Oil And Gas Shares’

Signs Of The Time, Part 102

From the official website of the National Association of REALTORS- realtor.com- this past Tuesday:

“Prepping for Doomsday: Bunkers, Panic Rooms, and Going Off the Grid”

Excerpts from the article included:

“If the booming sales of panic rooms are any indication, more and more city dwellers these days are obsessively worrying about everything from home invasions to terror attacks…”

“Some real estate companies are seeing big increases by specializing in ‘survivalist properties’…”

“Survivalists are also particularly hungry for metal containers they can convert into shelters and bury underground…”

While there’s the expected mocking tone to the piece (“Welcome to the brave (and for some, highly profitable) new world of paranoia”), it’s still an interesting look at what’s going on with panic/safe rooms, survival real estate, and (underground) shelters- topics I’ve blogged about from time to time over the last several years.

You can read the entire article on realtor.com here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Thursday, May 12th, 2016 Crime, Emergencies, Main Street, Man-Made Disasters, Natural Disasters, Preparedness, Shelter, Signs Of The Time, Terrorism Comments Off on Signs Of The Time, Part 102

Marc Faber Shares Investment Strategy To Combat The ‘Mad Professors’

Despite being out of the loop for a week due to the flu, I see the “crash prophets” are still running at full-throttle. I just got finished listening to an interview of Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber that was released on the King World News- Broadcast February 20. When asked by Eric King about his thoughts on gold, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report told listeners:

In this environment, you just don’t know how far the mad professors will go. Looking forward, we all don’t know how the world will look like in five years’ time, ten years’ time. I would hold some real estate. I would hold some stocks. I would hold some bonds and cash. And some precious metals. I happen to believe that the precious metals have probably bottomed out, but I cannot send you a guarantee for that. I don’t know, for sure.

“Dr. Doom,” as the financial news media likes to call him, added this prediction for 2016:

I believe the stock markets around the world will end the year lower. But it will depend on how much money the central bankers will print.

On February 18, Lucy Meakin, Ranheetha Pakiam, and Eddie Van Der Walt reported on the Bloomberg website:

“Leave a million dollars with a bank, and in a year, you get only something like $990,000 back,” Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said by phone. “I would rather want to own some solid currency, in other words gold.”

Dr. Faber talked more about the yellow metal- and his outlook for the U.S. economy and equities. From the piece:

It’s more tempting to own a non-yielding asset such as gold when returns on other investments are hard to find, according to Faber. He said in December that the U.S. is at the start of a recession and its stocks would fall this year.

Getting back to that King World News show, Faber also directed listeners of explore a particular type of stock (13:15) and area of real estate (18:58) to counter the “mad professors.” A good interview, which you can listen to in its entirety here on the King World News website.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Meakin, Lucy, Pakiam, Ranjeetha, Van Der Walt, Eddie. “Gold Bulls Feast as More Central Banks Drive Rates Below Zero.” Bloomberg. 18 Feb. 2016. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/gold-bulls-feast-as-more-central-banks-drive-rates-below-zero). 22 Feb. 2016.

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Must-Read Marc Faber Interview

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know on Sundays I try and blog about the latest investment activities/recommendations of the “crash prophets”- Marc Faber, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff. This week, three of the “prophets” are sounding off. First up is Marc Faber. An interview of the Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager was published Friday on the website of MarcoPolis, a Paris-based international online publishing company. Johnnes Maierhofer and Peter Matay conducted one of the most comprehensive interviews of Dr. Faber I’ve ever come across, writing on MarcoPolis.net:

In this exclusive interview with Marcopolis.net Marc Faber covers it all: from commodities and China to the outlook on inflation, the Euro and gold. According to him the global economy is not healing. To the contrary, we might find ourselves back into recession within six months or a year. In that case he expects more money printing by central banks, which eventually could lead to high inflation rates and renewed strength in commodity prices.

On the bright side, he sees great economic potential in Vietnam. Also, the Iraqi stock market has good potential now that a deal with Iran has been reached. While mining stocks are extremely depressed we might see defaults before any meaningful recovery…

Followers of Faber know he’s been a gold bull for years now. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report said this about the precious metal (and other investments of his) during the exchange:

I own gold and it doesn’t worry me that it went down because as I mentioned to you I have this diversification, the bonds in US dollars and the cash in US dollars has been a good investment essentially over the last twelve months. Then I own equities and I own properties in Asia that have been reasonably good investments so the fact that gold is going down doesn’t worry me and I buy every month a little bit but I think on this weakness I will increase the position substantially because I had maybe say 25% in gold but because equities and properties went up, the dollar went up and gold went down, the allocation to gold is no longer 25% but maybe only 10 or 15%.

So then I have to stock it up again. But I would say an individual should definitely own some physical gold…

“Doctor Doom” believes gold confiscation is a possibility, and added later in the discussion:

I think they will take the gold away and go back to some gold standard by revaluing the gold say from now 1000 dollars an oz. to say 10,000 dollars an oz…

A “must-read” interview for Faber followers, which you can access in its entirety on MarcoPolis.net here.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Sunday, August 9th, 2015 Asia, Banking, Bonds, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Europe, Inflation, Investing, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Recession, Stocks Comments Off on Must-Read Marc Faber Interview

Marc Faber Identifies Investment Opportunities

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was in Chicago Thursday giving a presentation at the CFA Analyst Seminar. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report warned his audience that all asset markets are overvalued- just like he did late last month when he said “everything is in a bubble” on the Fox Business Network (blogged about here).

That being said, “Doctor Doom” does see opportunities in real estate and emerging markets stocks, and likes cash to be able to acquire assets when bubbles pop.

There’s also gold. Timothy Pollard, covering Dr. Faber’s Chicago visit, reported on the Pensions & Investments website Thursday afternoon:

And of course, given his bearish stance, Mr. Faber recommended holding gold in a portfolio — his recommended allocation is 25%.

“Gold is insurance if the banking system fails,” he said. “As an investor I’d like to own something outside the banking system, and that includes real estate, art and gold.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Just last Tuesday, I noted that fellow “crash prophet” Peter Schiff tells people to have ten to fifteen percent of their portfolio in gold.

Pollard went into more detail about Dr. Faber’s presentation- and the investment opportunities he’s identified- on the Pensions & Investments website here. It’s an insightful read.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Sunday, July 26th, 2015 Banking, Bubbles, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Emerging Markets, Investing, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber Identifies Investment Opportunities

Jim Rogers ‘Still Waiting’ For Gold Buying Opporunity, ‘My Positions Are In Asia’

Daniela Cambone of Kitco News recently spoke to well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund shared the following with Kitco News viewers on April 30:

I’m bullish on the Chinese market, that’s my largest country. My largest stock positions are in Asia- China, Japan, Russia is becoming bigger and bigger. So my positions are in Asia. China is going to have some problems eventually. Looks like a bubble may be developing in its stock market, and if that happens obviously it will pop someday. You’re going to see some more real estate bankruptcies in China. There’s a lot of debt build up-in China. But at the moment I’m still there. I even bought more last week

I’ve mentioned China. I mentioned Japan. Russia- I’ll probably buy more Russia today. If I weren’t talking to you I might be buying Russia right now. These are the sorts of things where I’m looking and am putting more money.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)


“Gold Buying Opportunity Has Still Not Come – Jim Rogers | Kitco News”
YouTube Video

As Kitco deals in precious metals, it was only natural that the topic of gold came up in the discussion. Singapore-based Rogers had this to say about now being a buying opportunity for the yellow metal:

Well, the opportunity has not come as far as I’m concerned. I’m still waiting.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The Chairman of Rogers Holding started to say “Sometime in the next year” before offering this up to viewers:

I have no idea. I’m very bad at market timing.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Sunday, May 3rd, 2015 Asia, Bankruptcy, Bubbles, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Emerging Markets, Europe, Investing, Precious Metals Comments Off on Jim Rogers ‘Still Waiting’ For Gold Buying Opporunity, ‘My Positions Are In Asia’

Marc Faber Recommends Equities, Real Estate, Precious Metals To Counter Stock Market Plummet

Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber was on the CNBC TV show Trading Nation yesterday. Speaking by phone, the publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report reminded viewers of the stock market correction he’s been predicting for some time now. Dr. Faber said:

I think that the market is in a position where’s it’s not just going to be a 10 percent correction- maybe first goes up a bit further. But when it comes it will be 30 percent or 40 percent minimum.

Famous for advising clients to get out of the U.S. stock market one week before the October 1987 crash and for predicting the 2008 global financial crisis, Faber added:

I’m not short the market yet.

Nevertheless, it sounds like the “crash prophet” is prepared. “Dr. Doom” shared with viewers:

I don’t want to be 100 percent in cash for the simple reason that I don’t trust governments, and I don’t trust banks. So I want to own some equities, I want to own some properties, and I want to own some precious metals. And when we talk about stocks, the only group that stands out as great value around the world are gold mining shares.

Faber went on to talk about gold stocks more in-depth.


“Marc Faber talks protection strategies”
CNBC Video

Later on in the show, Dr. Faber added:

If I look at the ignorance of central bankers, and their recklessness of printing money from the U.S. to the ECB to Japan to the Bank of England, I want to own some precious metals.

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Thursday, April 30th, 2015 Asia, Banking, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Europe, Federal Reserve, Government, Investing, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Precious Metals, Stocks Comments Off on Marc Faber Recommends Equities, Real Estate, Precious Metals To Counter Stock Market Plummet

Robert Kiyosaki: 2002 Prediction Of Huge Stock Market Crash Next Year ‘Holding Course’

“‘Rich Dad’s Prophecy’- [Robert Kiyosaki’s] most recent book- predicts that the market will crash around 2016 when the oldest Baby Boomers start cashing out their 401(k) plans. Individuals whose savings are locked into 401(k) plans will suffer because these retirement plans, aren’t flexible and don’t do well in a bear market…”

-CNN.com, October 30, 2002

How many readers out there know who Robert Kiyosaki is? The American entrepreneur, educator, and investor was quite popular back in the early 2000s. I first encountered him while watching public television around that time, sharing financial and investment strategies taught to him by his rich “Dad” and found in his 2000 New York Times best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad. Kiyosaki went on to write a number of books, including Rich Dad’s Prophecy in 2002.

Last Tuesday, Robert Kiyosaki appeared on the Alex Jones Show. Kiyosaki talked about his new book, Second Chance, and other subjects, including a certain prediction made about the U.S. stock market next year. From their exchange:

JONES: The world is just crazy at this point. Give us your prognosis for the planet. There’s obviously opportunities for those of us that are studying it. I mean, I going to do better probably than ever as things get worse. But I’m not happy about that, because I know it’s hurting the average person.
KIYOSAKI: Amen. Alex, I would say exactly the same thing. It doesn’t make me happy that I’m getting richer and richer, and I see my friends getting poorer and poorer. I’m very concerned right now about my generation- the Baby Boom generation, the biggest generation in history. And they bought that program of put all your money in a 401(k) and invest for the long term. Now, I wrote a book called Rich Dad’s Prophecy back in 2002. That was 13 years ago. And I said the biggest stock market crash in the history of the world was coming in 2016. I was kind of guessing. But unfortunately, I didn’t write it to be right. I wrote it out of concern. If I’m correct that in 2002 what I said the biggest market crash was coming in 2016, that means millions and millions of Baby Boomers, their kids, their grandkids, will feel the effect of that when their retirement savings are wiped out. I hope I’m wrong. But so far, my numbers look accurate and it’s holding course right now. So I don’t write because I want to be rich or poke fun or want to be righteous. I am rather concerned about my fellow citizens.

“But so far, my numbers look accurate and it’s holding course right now.”

Disturbing. Kiyosaki added later on in the interview:

I’m just concerned about this possible- I hope it doesn’t happen- but if my “rich Dad” was correct, again, published in 2002 Rich Dad’s Prophecy predicted the biggest crash in the history of the world was coming in 2016. And that’s why I wrote Rich Dad Poor Dad, that’s why I speak, that’s why I write, that’s why I take on the media. But I’m very concerned for my [fellow] citizens. Look, Alex, what happens? Let’s say I’m right- hopefully I’m not. And millions of Baby Boomers lose their pensions, their homes, their jobs- they lose everything. What is the ripple effect throughout the world going to mean to that? We’ve never been here before. Never before has the U.S. dollar, one currency, been the reserve currency of the world- and we’re printing it. The Europeans are printing, Japanese are printing. And you’ve got to look at this and go, “This is not good.” So that’s my concern right now.


“Great Economic Collapse & Currency Meltdown Is Coming
Says Financier Robert Kiyosaki”
YouTube Video

So how is Robert Kiyosaki going to fend off the crisis he still sees coming? While taking phone calls from listeners, Kiyosaki revealed:

I like silver personally. I love gold. I have a lot of gold and silver.

Further insight was provided right before the holidays, when Eve Fisher of The Sydney Morning Herald reported:

“The world is in very serious trouble and the next 20 years will not be like the past two decades,” says Kiyosaki, who predicted the downfall of Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008 and the ensuing GFC.

“I foresee a global currency crash, like the one that ruined Germany in the 1920s, which will wipe out the poor and the middle class – as the rich get richer.

“People will see that money and shares are not real wealth, just paper, and the way to survive is by acquiring assets – like property, resources, gold and other precious metals.”

Farmers will benefit as land and food become highly valued commodities, he says…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Source:

Fisher, Eve. “Robert Kiyosaki says to prepare for the worst.” The Sydney Morning Herald. 10 Nov. 2014. (http://www.smh.com.au/business/robert-kiyosaki-says-to-prepare-for-the-worst-20141111-11jyhr.html). 21 Feb. 2015.

Robert Kiyosaki’s latest book…

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Sunday, February 22nd, 2015 Agriculture, Asia, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Demographics, Employment, Entitlements, Europe, Farming, Food, Housing, Inflation, Investing, Main Street, Mainstream Media, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, Natural Resources, Precious Metals, Retirement, Stocks Comments Off on Robert Kiyosaki: 2002 Prediction Of Huge Stock Market Crash Next Year ‘Holding Course’
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