Russia
Pentagon: Iran Could Flight-Test ICBM Capable Of Striking U.S. By 2015
Here’s a bit of disturbing news concerning Iran’s advancing nuclear capability I caught yesterday from Defense Update, an online defense magazine published in Israel. From their website:
A new Pentagon assessment of Iran’s military power maintains that in two years time, Iran could flight-test an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the United States, given “sufficient foreign assistance”, is provided to Tehran. The new assessment reiterated a longstanding estimate of the U.S. intelligence community. Iran could test such a missile by 2015 with assistance from nations like North Korea, China or Russia.
Apparently, this comes from an unclassified portion of the Annual Report on Military Power of Iran, dated January 2013 and made available by the Pentagon on April 25, 2013.
You can read the rest of the article on the Defense Update site here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Signs Of The Time, Part 61
Late last night I took some “me” time to watch the remake of that 1984 cult classic Red Dawn. I blogged back on August 13, 2012:
“Cold Warriors” might remember the flick, which incidentally was the first film to be released with a PG-13 rating. From the IMDb website:
It is the dawn of World War III. In mid-western America, a group of teenagers bands together to defend their town, and their country, from invading Soviet forces.
I also added:
On November 21, 2012- the day before Thanksgiving- Red Dawn 2012 will be released in American movie theaters. According to the IMDb storyline:
A group of teenagers look to save their town from an invasion of North Korean soldiers.
North Korea?
Already, some are saying that the People’s Republic of China with its fast-growing military should have been cast as America’s fictitious adversary in the remake.
Or even the bad-a** Russians (Soviets) again.
But according to Wikipedia:
In June 2010, release of the film was delayed due to MGM’s financial difficulties. The delay came amid growing controversy in China after excerpts of the script were leaked on the website The Awl. The film drew sharp criticism from the Global Times, one of the leading Chinese state-run newspapers, with headlines such as “U.S. reshoots Cold War movie to demonize China” and “American movie plants hostile seeds against China.” One of the articles stated: “China can still feel U.S. distrust and fear, especially among its people. Americans’ suspicions about China are the best ground for the hawks to disseminate fear and doubt, which is the biggest concern with the movie, Red Dawn…
In March 2011, the Los Angeles Times reported that MGM is changing the villains in its Red Dawn remake from Chinese to North Korean in order to maintain access to China’s lucrative box office.
So, North Korea became the “new” bad guys.
But get a load what was printed up on the Netflix DVD sleeve label:
“When Chinese military forces invade…”
Too funny.
As for the 2013 remake- not bad. I was pleasantly surprised that the storyline wasn’t exactly the same as the original movie. However, the movie ended somewhat abruptly, I thought. Still, the film was better than I expected. I especially liked the North Korean invasion scene- my butt popped off the couch for that part. And Kalashnikov aficionados will be impressed by the prolific use of AK-variants in the movie.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Central Banks Continue To Stockpile Gold
Despite the price of gold getting pummeled recently, a number of the world’s central banks continue to acquire the precious metal. Sungwoo Park reported on the Bloomberg website yesterday:
The Bank of Korea added 20 metric tons in February, raising its gold reserves by 24 percent to 104.4 tons, it said in a statement today. Holdings rose about $1.03 billion by value to $4.79 billion at the end of last month, equivalent to 1.5 percent of total foreign exchange holdings, according to the statement. Prices advanced.
Russia and Kazakhstan expanded bullion reserves for a fourth straight month in January.
On February 11, I blogged that Russia is now the world’s biggest gold buyer, adding 570 metric tons of the precious metal to their holdings over the past decade.
Glenys Sim wrote on Bloomberg.com back on February 25:
Russian holdings climbed 12.2 metric tons to 970 tons last month after gaining 8.5 percent over 2012, according to International Monetary Fund data. Kazakhstan’s hoard grew 1.5 tons to 116.8 tons, following last year’s 41 percent expansion, data on the IMF website showed…
Central banks will again be strong buyers this year after they boosted purchases 17 percent to 534.6 tons last year, the most since 1964, according to the London-based World Gold Council.
The gold haters are out in full force these days. Yet, central banks keep stockpiling the yellow metal. Hmm.
Diversification? Or “something wicked this way comes?”
And there’s no shortage of stories in the American media of how poorly gold is doing. Even though it’s setting record highs in other countries. Brett Arends wrote on the MarketWatch website yesterday:
You won’t hear about it in the usual places. Everywhere you turn these days, all you hear is that gold is down, it’s finished, it’s heading for something called a “death cross,” which sounds terrifying. But away from the headlines, gold just rocketed to a new, all-time high.
In places like Argentina, Brazil, Iceland, India, and Japan.
Not bad for a “barbarous relic,” huh?
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sources:
Park, Sungwoo. “Korea Joins Russia, Kazakhstan in Boosting Gold Holdings.” Bloomberg. 6 Mar. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/bank-of-korea-boosts-gold-reserves-as-central-banks-buy.html). 6 Mar. 2013.
Sim, Glenys. “Russia, Kazakhstan Increase Bullion Reserves for Fourth Month.” Bloomberg. 25 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-25/russia-kazakhstan-expand-gold-reserves-for-fourth-month-1-.html). 6 Mar. 2013.
Arends, Brett. “The secret bull market in gold.” MarketWatch. 6 Mar. 2013. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-secret-bull-market-in-gold-2013-03-06). 6 Mar. 2013.
Behold The Golden Bear: Russia Now World’s Biggest Gold Buyer
For years I’ve heard the term “Russian Bear” being used to describe Russia and its might.
For example, “NATO better not put too many missiles in Eastern Europe, or they’re going to anger the Russian Bear.”
After reading this morning about Russia acquiring literally tons of gold over the last ten years, perhaps they should be referred to as the “Golden Bear” going forward.
Scott Rose and Olga Tanas reported on the Bloomberg website this morning:
When Vladimir Putin says the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly, he’s not just talking. He’s betting on it.
Not only has Putin made Russia the world’s largest oil producer, he’s also made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570 metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than runner-up China, according to IMF data compiled by Bloomberg. The added gold is also almost triple the weight of the Statue of Liberty.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
I’m starting to see what legendary investor Jim Rogers was getting at regarding Russia.
While a number of “developed” countries are selling the precious metal these days- including economically-troubled France, Portugal, and Spain- “developing” nations are acquiring it with a fervor. Rose and Tanas added:
Quantitative easing by major economies to support financial asset prices is driving demand for gold in the emerging world, said Marcus Grubb, head of investment research at the World Gold Council. Before the crisis, central banks were net sellers of 400 to 500 tons a year. Now, led by Russia and China, they’re net buyers by about 450 tons, Grubb said by phone from London, where his industry group is based…
“That’s a very significant switch, and obviously a very positive one for the gold market,” Grubb said.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Meanwhile, the price of paper gold is taking a hit this morning. Barbara Kollmeyer and Myra Saefong reported this morning on the MarketWatch website:
G-7 nations could release a statement this week reaffirming a commitment to “market-determined” exchange rates, responding to heated talk about a currency war…
The Group of 20 nations will meet later in the week, with currencies expected to be at the top of the agenda.
As gold has benefitted from currency devaluations, traders are wary of these developments.
In addition, light volumes due to Asia’s observance of the Lunar New Year and a lack of economic data being released today are fueling downward pressure on the gold price.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Rose, Scott and Tanas, Olga. “Putin Turns Black Gold to Bullion as Russia Outbuys World.” Bloomberg.com. 11 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-10/putin-turns-black-gold-into-bullion-as-russia-out-buys-world.html). 11 Feb. 2013.
Kollmeyer, Barbara and Saefong, Myra. “Gold hit on worry of possible G-7 currency salvo.” MarketWatch. 11 Feb. 2013. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-edges-higher-as-dollar-weakens-2013-02-10). 11 Feb. 2013.
Jim Rogers: ‘Short Long-Term United States Government Bonds Right Now’
Thursday afternoon, investor, commentator, and author Jim Rogers sat down with CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo at the New York Stock Exchange. Predictably, the discussion focused on his thoughts about the U.S. economy and larger financial system- and where he thinks there are opportunities to make money. Rogers warned viewers:
It’s all artificial what’s going on right now. The Federal Reserve is printing money as fast as they can. But the Bank of Japan said “We’re going to print unlimited money.” And so you know what the Federal Reserve said? “We’ll match you, we’ll print money too!” I mean, this is insane… You think this is a sound economy?
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
The Singapore-based investor, who “retired” at age 37 and proceeded to ride a motorcycle around the world- and then write about it- went on to share the following investment-related nuggets on Closing Bell:
• Rogers is shorting government bonds. Not only did he say “Short long-tern United States government bonds right now,” but he also revealed this was his main U.S. investment.
• Owns Japanese stocks
• Investing in Russia- “I’m buying the bonds, the currency, and stocks.”
• Short Apple
• Short JPMorgan calls- “I’ve been short JPMorgan calls. They all expire worthless. I’m still short a few, and they’re not expiring worthless. I may lose money on that.”
• Sees Russia as the single best investment opportunity right now.
• Or North Korea- “The only way to invest is to buy the stamps or the coins. And your viewers are not going to go out and buy North Korean gold and silver coins. But that’s a fabulous, fabulous opportunity.”
• Wouldn’t buy gold at these levels- unless they were North Korean gold coins.
“Jim Rogers: I’m Short US Government Bonds And Investing In Russia – CNBC 2/8/2013″
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers Warns ‘Horrible Headache’ Coming For U.S. Between End Of 2013 And 2015
Investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers recently appeared on the Yahoo! Finance show The Daily Ticker. Lauren Lyster interviewed the former investing partner of George Soros, who talked about a number of money-related topics in video released this morning. This included:
• Noting that gold and silver coins are “hot,” but he wouldn’t rush into them right now- “Don’t sell your gold and don’t sell your silver.”
• Predicting turmoil in currencies- “There is not a sound currency anymore.”
• Reiterating his belief in agriculture as a good investment- “I would rather own agriculture than anything.”
• Revealing he was interested in Russian rubles, Chinese renminbi
• Thinking about buying Japanese yen again
• Investing his family’s “human capital” in Asia
• Comparing America’s future to the decline of the U.K.
• Comparing China to America in the early 20th century
• Predicting China will have its share of setbacks like the U.S. did in the 19th century
• Declaring U.S. higher education a bubble
• Revealing he was “optimistic” on Russia and had invested there. Talked about how to do it.
• Revealing he had invested in North Korea. Talked about how he did that as well.
• Claiming U.S. stocks are going up because of money printing by central banks- “I mean, this is staggering what’s going on. It’s going to end so badly for all of us. We’re all going to wake up one day with a horrible headache. Probably 2014, 2015. Or the end of 2013.
Awesome exchange between Lyster and Rogers, which you can watch on the Yahoo! Finance site here and here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers: China, Myanmar, And Russia Best Prospects For Investors
I happened to stumble on an article tonight on the website of the Sofia News Agency (Bulgaria’s largest English language news provider) about well-known American investor Jim Rogers. In an interview for Gold Radio Café, the former investing partner of George Soros talked about his new book that will be out soon, Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets, and potential investment in Bulgaria. In addition, Rogers discussed what markets he thought had promise for investors. From the piece:
Myanmar, China and Russia are the markets holding the best prospects for investors, according to Rogers.
Myanmar has gone through dramatic and exciting changes, China opened up to the world 30-35 years ago and has been a great success story, while Russia has changed its attitude towards capitalism, which is why the billionaire is considering investments there too.
Rogers has been bullish on China for a while now, while only recently taking a shine to Myanmar and Russia.
Furthermore, the Singapore-based investor who correctly predicted the beginning of the current commodity bull market back in 1999 talked up gold. From the article:
Asked what he would choose if he was to create a legacy portfolio for his grandchildren, Jim Rogers pointed out precious metals put in real assets.
At the end of December, Rogers indicated that he was “sitting and watching” gold for the present time.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Source:
“Wall Street Legend Jim Rogers Mulls Investing in Bulgaria.” Sofia News Agency. 21 Jan. 2013. (http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=147060). 21 Jan 2013.
Nuclear Material On The Loose
“The Obama administration is warning that the danger of a terrorist attack with nuclear weapons is increasing, but U.S. officials say the claim is not based on new intelligence and questioned whether the threat is being overstated.”
-Washington Times, April 14, 2010
I don’t agree with President Obama on a number of things, but here’s one we do see eye-to-eye on:
The threat posed by nuclear terrorism.
Consider recent events in the former Soviet Union. Desmond Butler of the Associated Press reported back on December 9:
Despite years of effort and hundreds of millions of dollars spent in the fight against the illicit sale of nuclear contraband, the black market remains active in the countries around the former Soviet Union. The radioactive materials, mostly left over from the Cold War, include nuclear bomb-grade uranium and plutonium, and dirty-bomb isotopes like cesium and iridium.
The extent of the black market is unknown, but a steady stream of attempted sales of radioactive materials in recent years suggests smugglers have sometimes crossed borders undetected. Since the formation of a special nuclear police unit in 2005 with U.S. help and funding, 15 investigations have been launched in Georgia and dozens of people arrested.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
And what of the years between 1991 (Georgian independence) and 2005? I shudder to think how much radioactive material might have found their way across the Georgian border and into the hands of the bad guys during those 14 years.
According to the piece, highly-enriched uranium has also recently been seized from smugglers in Moldova, another former Soviet republic.
From the Council on Foreign Relations website:
There have been no confirmed reports of missing or stolen former-Soviet nuclear weapons, but there is ample evidence of a significant black market in nuclear materials. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported more than a hundred nuclear smuggling incidents since 1993, eighteen of which involved highly enriched uranium, the key ingredient in an atomic bomb and the most dangerous product on the nuclear black market.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
That portion of the CFR website was last updated in January 2006.
While the Council said there have been no confirmed reports of missing or stolen nuclear weapons, the same can’t be said of nuclear material. Butler added:
Russia maintains that it has secured its radioactive material — including bomb-grade uranium and plutonium — and that Georgia has exaggerated the risk because of political tension with Moscow. But while the vast majority of the former Soviet Union’s nuclear arsenal and radioactive material has been secured, U.S. officials say that some material in the region remains loose.
“Without a doubt, we are aware and have been over the last several years that not all nuclear material is accounted for,” says Simon Limage, deputy assistant secretary for non-proliferation programs at the U.S. State Department. “It is true that a portion that we are concerned about continues to be outside of regulatory control.”
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
“U.S. officials say that some material in the region remains loose.”
If smuggling is taking place and the whereabouts of the nuclear material is unknown, I wonder if the above shouldn’t be changed to “some material from the region remains loose?”
Since illegal aliens and drugs routinely manage to find their way into the United States, it requires no stretch of the mind to envision nuclear material for a terrorist weapon also being smuggled in.
Butler’s incredibly-informative piece be read on the Yahoo! News website here.
Central Banks Keep Buying Gold
There’s been a lot of talk recently about the dip in the gold price.
Yet, so little chatter about the world’s central banks adding to their gold reserves.
Glenys Sim reported on Bloomberg.com tonight:
Brazil boosted gold reserves for a third month in November to double the country’s holdings since August as central banks from Russia to Belarus and South Korea add the metal to diversify their assets.
Brazilian holdings expanded 14.7 metric tons in November to 67.2 tons, the most since November 2000, according to data on the International Monetary Fund’s website. The country bought 17.2 tons in October after adding 1.7 tons in September, the first increase since 2008. Russia’s holdings increased 2.9 tons last month and Belarus’s reserves expanded 1.4 tons, the data show…
In Asia, the Bank of Korea increased gold reserves 20 percent last month to diversify investments, boosting holdings for the fourth time since June 2011, according to a statement Dec. 5. Gold is a physical, safe asset, the Bank of Korea said.
According to ArabianMoney.net editor/publisher Peter Cooper on the ResourceInvestor.com news site back on December 6:
Gold buying by the global central banks will hit a new high this year of more than 500 tons up from 465 tons in 2011, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council.
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sources:
Sim, Glenys. “Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves as Central Banks Buy Bullion.” Bloomberg. 20 Dec. 2012. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-21/brazil-doubles-gold-reserves-with-third-purchase-as-banks-buy.html). 20 Dec. 2012.
Coopers, Peter. “Central Bank Gold Purchases to Top 500 Tons This Year.” ResourceInvestor.com. 6 Dec. 2012. (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2012/12/06/central-bank-gold-purchases-to-top-500-tons-this-y?ref=hp). 20 Dec. 2012.
Project Prepper: Mayan Apocalypse Detour?
The past couple of days, I’ve been watching quite a bit of “doomsday”-related TV on the National Geographic Channel and on H2.
Even though I don’t buy into the whole December 21, 2012, end-of-the-world thing, it was still depressing to watch. And this is coming from someone who (I think) is rather good-spirited in nature.
I have to be in order to blog about a lot of the material I do.
At one point in this “doomsday” TV show viewing marathon, I started questioning myself and wondered if perhaps I should go on a buying spree for supplies before the Mayan 13th b’ak’tun runs out.
It wasn’t an apocalyptic event I was worried about as much as the action(s) of some nut-job(s) making life for the rest of us more “difficult.”
But that’s a danger we face on a daily basis, so after weighing the evidence at hand regarding a Mayan Apocalypse occurring on December 21, I decided against taking a detour from Project Prepper by doing some “panic buying.”
Still, a lot of people are worried about this date. Remember that Reuters/Ipsos “end times” poll I blogged about back in May? One of the findings was that 12 percent of Americans surveyed agreed with the statement “the Mayan calendar, which some says ‘ends’ in 2012, marks the end of the world.”
“12 percent.” As percentage of the U.S. population in 2011, that’s approximately 37.4 million Americans who might agree with that statement about the world ending in a couple of weeks.
Well, that probably helps explain some of the shortages I’ve been seeing with prepper/survivalist-related gear and supplies.
“Preparing For Mayan Doomsday”
ABC San Diego Video
The fear of this date extends beyond our borders. Remember my post about Pic de Bugarach, a mountain in southern France, back in March, and how some believe aliens waiting in a spacecraft inside the mountain will save all nearby humans from the Apocalypse on December 21? Well, The Sun (UK) reported the following on November 16:
A FRENCH village has banned a Doomsday cult from heading to a “mystical mountain” that followers believe will save them from extinction…
Bugarach mayor Jean-Pierre Delord said his village of just 200 people had now become “overrun with esoteric weirdos” hoping to survive in six weeks time.
He said: “The mountainside is swarming with hippies, many of them naked, who drop litter and make a mess…
Regional prefect Eric Freysselinard has now issued an order barring anyone from climbing the mountain, in the foothills of the Pyrenees, on “Doomsday”.
He said: “It will be closed off for three days before and two days after the world is supposed to end.”
“Sorry about my litter. Save the Earth.”
Even the Russians are concerned. Ellen Barry wrote on The New York Times website this past weekend:
There are scattered reports of unusual behavior from across Russia’s nine time zones.
Inmates in a women’s prison near the Chinese border are said to have experienced a “collective mass psychosis” so intense that their wardens summoned a priest to calm them. In a factory town east of Moscow, panicked citizens stripped shelves of matches, kerosene, sugar and candles. A huge Mayan-style archway is being built — out of ice — on Karl Marx Street in Chelyabinsk in the south.
Despite such incidents, I still haven’t seen any definitive evidence pointing to the end of the world on December 21. In fact, as a result of all that TV, I’m now aware of other Mayan calendars suggesting life will go on after this date.
As such, there’ll be no mad rush for Apocalypse supplies on my end.
See you at the December 22 post-doomsday fire sales?
Sources:
“Officials ban doomsday followers from French village.” The Sun. 16 Nov. 2012. (http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4648192/bugarach-bans-doomsday-followers-from-village.html). 4 Dec. 2012.
Barry, Ellen. “In Panicky Russia, It’s Official: End of World Is Not Near.” The New York Times. 1 Dec. 2012. (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/world/europe/mayan-end-of-world-stirs-panic-in-russia-and-elsewhere.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0). 4 Dec. 2012.
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