South Korea

Jim Rogers: ‘Not All Of Us Are Going To Survive What’s Coming In The Next Few Years’

Well-known investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers was recently interviewed by Jay Taylor (editor of J Taylor’s Gold & Technology Stocks newsletter) for the radio show Turning Hard Times into Good Times. It was a phenomenal discussion about a number of finance/investing related topics.

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that the former investing partner of George Soros is forecasting that the U.S. economy will be in recession “sometime in the next year or two.” He’s also seeing signs of the next economic crisis “already happening.” But does Rogers think the winner of this November’s U.S. presidential election will turn the country around? He lamented:

No matter who of the major candidates, no matter who wins Jay, it’s not going to be good for America or good for the world. If Donald Trump does the things he says he going to do, I mean, we’re going to have trade wars with half the world. Well trade wars have always, always, throughout history led to bankruptcy and led to war. I don’t know if he means what he says, I don’t know if he knows he means what he says. But Sanders of course, Sanders will bankrupt us very, very quickly. Hillary Clinton, for god’s sake, she’s a disaster too! The bankruptcy will just be slower, that’s all, if she’s elected. So, I don’t see any prospects for salvation for the U.S. from the present people who are likely to become President of the United States.

Host Jay Taylor asked the world traveler if he knew of any “safe” place where Americans could weather the approaching economic storm. From their exchange:

TAYLOR: Is there any place- you’re in Singapore, I suspect you feel relatively safe there- but is there any place where people might go, people who cherish freedom and the opportunities to use their God-given talents? Is there any place on Earth besides Singapore, or where can we go? Is there any place to go? It used to be the United States. I felt that we were safe here. Is there any place we can go to be safe? I guess the answer is probably there’s no place you can be sure of, right?
ROGERS: Well, there’s no place at the moment that I know of. Even Singapore, as I said before, the port here is the most important port in Asia and if things blow up, everybody needs that port. And Singapore has a lot of Muslim neighbors too that could turn into a problem some day. Where would one go? I think one needs to find an isolated place. I guess maybe some places in South America. Maybe a way to make it through. Some places in Asia. North Korea, I’m very optimistic. North Korea has dramatic changes taking place. It’s where China was in 1981. But if there’s a war, North Korea is probably going to be involved. All of Korea is probably going to be involved too. But you need to find a place Jay that’s not in the mainstream where people don’t really care too much. But even then you have to be careful because you wind end up in a place where the army’s using you as a highway or a transit point. So you have to be careful.

Rogers concluded the interview with this advice to listeners:

I urge people to get knowledgeable from listening to you and other people like you, because the world is facing some very complicated and difficult times. Once you become knowledgeable, you’re going to get very worried, which you should, and then you might get prepared, because not all of us are going to survive what’s coming in the next few years. I hope I survive, I hope everybody listening to this survives. But it’s going to be a very, very damaging and difficult time. So be worried. Be prepared.


“Where is Jim Rogers Investing His Money Now?”
YouTube Video

Jim Rogers’ latest book…

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Jim Rogers: Forget Finance, MBA Degrees, Become Farmers

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers still thinks agriculture is where the real money will be made in the future. From the Dong-A Ilbo (South Korea) website Saturday:

Legendary investor Jim Rogers on Thursday advised Master of Business Administration (MBA) students at Seoul National University to quit the MBA program and study agriculture. He argued that by the time the students would retire, agriculture would become the most promising industry. Rogers advised the students to have a switch of ideas and become farmers at a time when everyone else is neglecting agriculture and rush to cities. When the investment guru said he hoped to live as a farmer in China rather than a financier in America in his next life, it sounded like a prediction that there are promising chances to make money from agriculture from an investor`s viewpoint, rather than an expression of his personal dream of life on the farm…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“Switch… and become farmers.” A number of SNU students and their parents probably weren’t too thrilled to hear that.

Regular followers of Rogers, who predicted the commodities rally that began in 1999 and was worth $300 million by 2007, know that he’s been bullish on agriculture and farming for years now. The former investor partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund told CNBC’s Larry Kudlow back on February 13 of last year:

Throughout history we’ve had long periods when the financial types were in charge. Then we had periods when the people who produce real goods- farmers, miners, lumberjacks, etcetera were in charge. Followed by finance again. Well, finance has had its day. Larry, there are hundreds of thousands of MBAs, massive competition, huge leverage in the financial system, and governments don’t like us anymore. They’re coming down with regulations, controls, special taxes- because they’re trying to blame everything on the bankers and the financial types. All those kids that got MBAs? They made a terrible mistake. They should have got agricultural degrees…

Farming is going to be a fantastic business. Farming has been a disaster for 30 years, Larry. It is now going to be a fantastic place to be- the people who produce real things. Forget finance.


“Jim Rogers: ‘Forget Finance!'”
CNBC Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Source:

“Investment guru advises MBA students to study agriculture” Dong-A Ilbo. 6 Dec. 2014. (http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2014120636498). 8 Dec. 2014.

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Central Banks Continue To Stockpile Gold

Despite the price of gold getting pummeled recently, a number of the world’s central banks continue to acquire the precious metal. Sungwoo Park reported on the Bloomberg website yesterday:

The Bank of Korea added 20 metric tons in February, raising its gold reserves by 24 percent to 104.4 tons, it said in a statement today. Holdings rose about $1.03 billion by value to $4.79 billion at the end of last month, equivalent to 1.5 percent of total foreign exchange holdings, according to the statement. Prices advanced.

Russia and Kazakhstan expanded bullion reserves for a fourth straight month in January.

On February 11, I blogged that Russia is now the world’s biggest gold buyer, adding 570 metric tons of the precious metal to their holdings over the past decade.

Glenys Sim wrote on Bloomberg.com back on February 25:

Russian holdings climbed 12.2 metric tons to 970 tons last month after gaining 8.5 percent over 2012, according to International Monetary Fund data. Kazakhstan’s hoard grew 1.5 tons to 116.8 tons, following last year’s 41 percent expansion, data on the IMF website showed…

Central banks will again be strong buyers this year after they boosted purchases 17 percent to 534.6 tons last year, the most since 1964, according to the London-based World Gold Council.

The gold haters are out in full force these days. Yet, central banks keep stockpiling the yellow metal. Hmm.

Diversification? Or “something wicked this way comes?”

And there’s no shortage of stories in the American media of how poorly gold is doing. Even though it’s setting record highs in other countries. Brett Arends wrote on the MarketWatch website yesterday:

You won’t hear about it in the usual places. Everywhere you turn these days, all you hear is that gold is down, it’s finished, it’s heading for something called a “death cross,” which sounds terrifying. But away from the headlines, gold just rocketed to a new, all-time high.

In places like Argentina, Brazil, Iceland, India, and Japan.

Not bad for a “barbarous relic,” huh?

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Park, Sungwoo. “Korea Joins Russia, Kazakhstan in Boosting Gold Holdings.” Bloomberg. 6 Mar. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/bank-of-korea-boosts-gold-reserves-as-central-banks-buy.html). 6 Mar. 2013.

Sim, Glenys. “Russia, Kazakhstan Increase Bullion Reserves for Fourth Month.” Bloomberg. 25 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-25/russia-kazakhstan-expand-gold-reserves-for-fourth-month-1-.html). 6 Mar. 2013.

Arends, Brett. “The secret bull market in gold.” MarketWatch. 6 Mar. 2013. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-secret-bull-market-in-gold-2013-03-06). 6 Mar. 2013.

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Radio Appearance: Kate Krueger Talking Guns, KFNX 1100 AM Phoenix

This past Sunday, February 24, I was given the opportunity to be a guest on Kate Krueger Talking Guns, “Your Source for Gun News, Views and More,” a radio talk-show airing on KFNX 1100 AM (“Independent Talk”) on Sundays, noon to 2 PM, in the Phoenix, Arizona, area and over the Internet as well. The topic of our discussion was those U.S.-made South Korean M1 Garand rifles that are supposed to be coming back home and which I last blogged about here.

While I haven’t been able to confirm anything yet, the rumor I’ve encountered with increasing frequency in cyberspace is that a well-known U.S. firearms importer has the 84,417 Garands and parts in their possession. One seemingly well-informed Civilian Marksmanship Program forum poster even went so far as to say that all the rifles are back on American soil, the importer is sorting and inspecting the guns, and that they’ll be made available for sale sometime this year.

Like I said- this is all rumor at this point in time. But I’m hoping to get confirmation of all this in the coming days.

In the meantime, if you didn’t get a chance to listen to the show this past Sunday (where I name the rumored importer and share more details about this continuing saga), the link can be found on the Talking Guns website in their “Archives” section here (second hour), or just click on/download the following MP3 file:

http://katekruegertalkingguns.com/talkinggunsshow/TG02242013_H2.mp3

About the experience? I was nervous (I’m realizing my thoughts flow better via the keyboard), but Kate Krueger was fantastic to talk to and made me feel right at home on the show. And boy does she know her subject material! I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. From the Talking Guns website:

Kate has a strong firearms and martial arts background. Although she was not brought up around firearms her fighting spirit eventually brought her to that next logical step. She is an NRA Instructor and a certified Arizona Concealed Carry instructor as well. Her thirst for knowledge has led her to training facilities around the country, Smith & Wesson, Lethal Force Institute (now Massad Ayoob Group), Chapman Academy, Gunsite to name a few. Isshin Ryu was her style of choice in martial arts but she has continued to add to that background with ground fighting, hand to hand, weapon retention and other varients of weapon and empty hand techniques. Through martial arts and shooting competitions over the years she honed her skills.

This knowledge applied to the Garand as well. I was really impressed she knew so much about the U.S.-made rifle, whether it was being able to easily-answer the call-in question from “Tony” in Phoenix about detachable magazines to her discussion about “Garand Thumb” or “M1 Thumb.”

Talking Guns Producer Dana Desing Brewster was also excellent to work with. It was somewhat of a chore (of my making) trying to nail down a date/time for me to appear on the show, but Dana handled this like a real pro.

By the way, near the end of the M1 Garand segment I accidentally interrupted Kate. Kate had the floor, and I was all too happy to oblige. What I was going to say was that those who have been following the story of the South Korean Garands should thank Lee Tae-hoon, formerly of The Korea Times and now back in school from what I understand, and Fredy Riehl over at the shooting sports news website AmmoLand.com for the contributions they’ve made to the repatriation of these iconic rifles. Lee did a tremendous job tracking and writing about these iconic rifles over in the Republic of Korea, and sharing pertinent information with me via e-mail. Fredy made sure the story got out to a much wider audience than my blog currently reaches. The way I see it, I’m just along for the ride- a twisting, turning one with a little bit of mystery thrown in.

Check out the show if you get the chance!

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Upcoming Radio Appearance: Kate Krueger Talking Guns, KFNX 1100 AM Phoenix

This Sunday, February 24, I’m scheduled to be a guest on Kate Krueger Talking Guns, “Your Source for Gun News, Views and More,” a radio talk-show airing on KFNX 1100 AM (“Independent Talk”) on Sundays, noon to 2 PM, in the Phoenix, Arizona area and over the Internet as well.

We will be discussing the U.S.-made South Korean M1 Garand rifles that are supposed to be coming back home and which I last blogged about here. I should be going on around 3:10 PM EST (1:10 PM MST).

If you want to listen to the show live but aren’t within earshot of KFNX, stop by the Talking Guns website and click on the “Listen Live” microphone icon along the left sidebar. Alternatively, you can visit the KFNX site here and click on the “Listen Live” graphic at the top-right of the page.

If you want to listen to the broadcast later, you can go to the “Archives” tab on the Talking Guns site and find the show there.

I’m really excited about being able to talk about these iconic firearms with Ms. Krueger. Tune in if you get the chance!

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Saturday, February 23rd, 2013 Asia, Firearms No Comments

Central Banks Keep Buying Gold

There’s been a lot of talk recently about the dip in the gold price.

Yet, so little chatter about the world’s central banks adding to their gold reserves.

Glenys Sim reported on Bloomberg.com tonight:

Brazil boosted gold reserves for a third month in November to double the country’s holdings since August as central banks from Russia to Belarus and South Korea add the metal to diversify their assets.

Brazilian holdings expanded 14.7 metric tons in November to 67.2 tons, the most since November 2000, according to data on the International Monetary Fund’s website. The country bought 17.2 tons in October after adding 1.7 tons in September, the first increase since 2008. Russia’s holdings increased 2.9 tons last month and Belarus’s reserves expanded 1.4 tons, the data show…

In Asia, the Bank of Korea increased gold reserves 20 percent last month to diversify investments, boosting holdings for the fourth time since June 2011, according to a statement Dec. 5. Gold is a physical, safe asset, the Bank of Korea said.

According to ArabianMoney.net editor/publisher Peter Cooper on the ResourceInvestor.com news site back on December 6:

Gold buying by the global central banks will hit a new high this year of more than 500 tons up from 465 tons in 2011, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council.

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Sim, Glenys. “Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves as Central Banks Buy Bullion.” Bloomberg. 20 Dec. 2012. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-21/brazil-doubles-gold-reserves-with-third-purchase-as-banks-buy.html). 20 Dec. 2012.

Coopers, Peter. “Central Bank Gold Purchases to Top 500 Tons This Year.” ResourceInvestor.com. 6 Dec. 2012. (http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2012/12/06/central-bank-gold-purchases-to-top-500-tons-this-y?ref=hp). 20 Dec. 2012.

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Which Central Banks Are Buying Gold?

If there’s one question gold “bears” have a hard time answering, it’s this:

If gold is such a “barbarous relic,” how come central banks are acquiring it these days?

There’s doesn’t seem to be much doubt this accumulation is taking place. In fact, Izabella Kaminska wrote on the FT Alphaville blog on the Financial Times (UK) website just today:

What’s more, the case for “gold” is increasingly being linked to future expectations that central banks and public authorities will continue to be large net buyers and borrowers of gold, rather than sellers.

The point is made nicely in this note from Moody’s Analytics on Tuesday:

One strong positive for gold demand is purchases for the reserves of governments and supranational organizations. After many years of shedding reserves, net buying by the official sector reached 456 t last year. The desire to diversify from major currencies may continue to drive such demand…

So, which central banks in particular are acquiring the precious metal?

I recently received this month’s edition of Peter Schiff’s Gold Report (ROTW back on July 6, 2011) and the President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital provided some insight. From the July issue of this free newsletter:

The return to gold is unmistakably the product of a strategic, not merely a tactical, shift in global central banking policy. Central banks in the developed world have now altogether stopped selling bullion. This was foreshadowed by their behavior over the past decade, when they sold even less gold than they were permitted to under the anti-dumping Central Bank Gold Agreements. Clearly the concern about dumping gold was out of step with the trend. But more importantly, central banks in the emerging markets have been buying gold by the truckload.

Since the financial crisis of ’08, nations as diverse as Mexico, the Philippines, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India have led the way back to gold as a primary reserve asset. Russia alone has added an impressive 400 tonnes of bullion to its reserves, most of it coming from domestic purchases. Mexico has added over 120 tonnes, including 78 tonnes from one mega-purchase in March 2011. The Philippines have bought over 60 tonnes, with 32 tonnes coming in as recently as March 2012. Thailand has added approximately 60 tonnes, and Kazakhstan just shy of 30 tonnes. Turkey amended its regulatory policy late last year to allow commercial banks to count gold towards their reserve requirements, adding over 120 tonnes to its official reserves. And bullion imports into mainland China through Hong Kong have been reaching all-time highs.

Finally, loyal US allies Saudi Arabia and India, in what is sure to leave particularly bitter taste in Washington’s mouth, have been adding gold to their reserves by the hundreds of tonnes.

In short, the governments of emerging markets recognize that the global monetary order is on the verge of a reset. These emerging markets are the economic engines of the 21st century, and they’re determined not to be undermined by Western fiat paper.

South Korea might also be adding to their gold reserves soon. I blogged on June 21:

The Irish precious metals firm also highlighted the possibility of South Korea buying more gold in 2012:

The Bank of Korea has said that its current gold holdings are too small and that the BOK may buy more gold this year in order to diversify its foreign exchange portfolio which is exposed to the dollar.

Eugene Kim, chief investment officer at the central bank’s foreign-exchange reserve management group, said its gold holdings are “too small” given the size of its forex reserves, which stood at a record-high of $310.87 billion at the end of May, and that the BOK might buy more bullion this year.

Gold. A “barbarous relic” for sure.

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

Sources:

Kaminska, Izabella. “Propping up the gold price.” FT Alphaville. 10 July 2012. (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/10/1077461/propping-up-the-gold-price/). 10 July 2012.

Schiff, Peter. “The Return Of The Gold Standard.” Peter Schiff’s Gold Report. July 2012.

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Survival And Prosperity
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Christopher E. Hill, Editor

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