S&P

Illinois Bond Issue Halted Due To Credit Concerns

Today, residents of the state of Illinois saw the repercussions of having $8 billion of unpaid bills, a $96.8 billion pension funding gap, and falling credit ratings. Karen Pierog reported on the Reuters website:

Illinois yanked a $500 million general obligation bond issue slated for Wednesday because of credit concerns that could boost its borrowing costs, in the latest financial blow to the state, which has failed to fix its bloated public pensions.

Investment banks that planned to bid on the debt indicated investors would demand higher yields on the 25-year bonds, said John Sinsheimer, Illinois’ capital markets director.

“We were getting indications of higher spreads than we were anticipating,” said Sinsheimer, who declined to discuss specific spread levels. “We felt it was prudent to pull the deal for the time being.”

(Editor’s notes: Italics added for emphasis)

Pierog pointed out:

Illinois is already faced with the highest spreads – 137 basis points in the latest week – over Municipal Market Data’s benchmark triple-A scale among states and cities tracked by MMD, a unit of Thomson Reuters.

Over the weekend, I noted Standard & Poor’s downgraded the State of Illinois on Friday to an “A-” rating with a negative outlook- last among all 50 states. I added that among other major credit rating agencies, Moody’s also ranks Illinois last of all the U.S. states and Fitch ranks it 49th but on watch for a possible downgrade.

As for Illinois taxpayers? They may have to pay tens of millions of dollars more in interest when the state looks to borrow more money- like what almost happened today.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Pierog, Karen. “UPDATE 2-Illinois pulls $500 mln bond sale amid credit concerns.” Reuters. 30 Jan 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/illinois-bonds-idUSL1N0AZ6TQ20130130). 30 Jan. 2013.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

S&P Downgrades Illinois Credit Rating To Worst In Nation

When I heard a major credit rating agency had downgraded Illinois Friday, the term “death spiral state” quickly came to mind.

And then my thoughts turned to the tens of millions of dollars Illinois taxpayers might be on the hook for down the road.

Ray Long and Monique Garcia reported on the Chicago Tribune website Friday:

Illinois fell to the bottom of all 50 states in the rankings of a major credit ratings agency Friday following the failure of Gov. Pat Quinn and lawmakers to fix the state’s hemorrhaging pension system during this month’s lame-duck session.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service downgraded Illinois in what is the latest fallout over the $96.8 billion debt to five state pension systems. The New York rating firm’s ranking signaled taxpayers may pay tens of millions of dollars more in interest when the state borrows money for roads and other projects.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Illinois now has an “A-” rating with a negative outlook from S&P. Among other major credit rating agencies, Moody’s ranks Illinois last among the 50 states and Fitch ranks it 49th but on watch for a possible downgrade.

Regarding the state’s huge pension funding gap, Mark Peters wrote on the Wall Street Journal website Friday:

S&P estimates the pension system in the coming year will see assets fall to 39% of future obligations.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Hardly any talk about the crisis in the local mainstream media outlets this weekend. Amazing. I can’t understand why more Illinois residents aren’t up in arms over this humongous financial mess the state is in.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Garcia, Monique and Long, Ray. “Illinois credit rating sinks to worst in nation.” Chicago Tribune. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-25/news/chi-illinois-credit-rating-sinks-to-worst-in-nation-20130125_1_action-on-pension-reform-robin-prunty-illinois-credit). 27 Jan. 2013.

Peters, Mark. “S&P Cuts Illinois Credit Rating.” Wall Street Journal. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324539304578264293106044944.html). 27 Jan. 2013.

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

S&P: U.S. Has 20 To 25 Percent Chance Of ‘Double-Dip’ Recession, Eurozone Enters New One

The economists over at well-known American financial services company Standard & Poor’s (S&P) are warning about a possible “double-dip” recession for the United States, and are saying the Eurozone has entered a new one. Agustino Fontevecchia wrote last Friday on the Forbes website:

There’s a 20% to 25% chance that the U.S. economy will suffer a double-dip recession, according to a report by Standard & Poor’s. The credit rating agency which downgraded the U.S.’ sovereign credit rating last year noted unemployment could peak above 9%, real GDP would contract 0.9%, and housing markets would once again collapse under their adverse scenario. The catalyst: Congress failing to reach an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff.

No matter what happens, a strong economic recovery is “a long ways away,” explained S&P’s deputy chief economist, Beth Ann Bovino. A poor labor market, with businesses adding a paltry 97,000 jobs per month over the last six months, has kept the economic recovery in “slow gear.” (During the winter, the economy added an average 240,000 jobs per month, she noted).

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

This warning of an economic slowdown echoes what S&P economists were saying a month prior. From the AFP website on August 21:

The odds the United States will slip back into recession next year have risen, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said, citing risks from the European debt crisis and budget tightening at year-end.

The US ratings firm raised the chance of the US falling into recession to 25 percent, up from a 20 percent chance estimated in February, as the world’s largest economy struggles to recover from a severe 2008-2009 slump.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Just this morning, S&P said the Eurozone was entering a new recession. Steve Gelsi wrote on the MarketWatch website:

The data are confirming our view that the [Eurozone] region is entering a new period of recession, after three quarters of negative or flat growth since the final quarter of 2010,” according to Jean-Michel Six, the rating agency’s chief economist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Sources:

Fontevecchia, Agustino. “Double-Dip Recession 20% To 25% Likely If Fiscal Cliff Hits, S&P Warns.” Forbes. 21 Sep. 2012. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/09/21/double-dip-recession-20-to-25-likely-if-fiscal-cliff-hits-sp-warns/). 25 Sep. 2012.

“Risk of US double-dip recession rises: S&P.” Agence France-Presse. 21 Aug. 2012. (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hUW6S9xn4PTe3Oy6FaZ5SqADbALw?docId=CNG.9261c794f17a86efcc8
014d16fa164f9.121). 25 Sep. 2012.

Gelsi, Steve. “S&P says new recession hitting euro zone.” MarketWatch. 25 Sep. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-says-new-recession-hitting-euro-zone-2012-09-25?reflink=MW_news_stmp). 25 Sep. 2012.

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Peter Schiff: ‘We Are Either In, Or On The Cusp Of, A Brand New Recession’

Tonight I’ve been reviewing some of the latest material from Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. Schiff, as most of you may know, correctly-called the latest financial crisis the United States still finds itself in. From the Schiff Report YouTube Video Blog this past Saturday:

We are either in, or on the cusp of, a brand new recession. And remember, contrary to previous recessions, this one is starting, starting, with unemployment above nine percent, starting with interest rates already at zero. So, imagine what’s going to happen when we get the next round of fiscal stimulus- they’re going to blow the deficit off the charts. And of course, the Fed can’t do anything on the rate front. All they can do is print more money, which destroys the value of U.S. bonds. So I think S&P again is being much too generous with their rating forecast…

So, that is my warning to everybody, and I’ve been saying it. You can’t just get out of Treasuries. You need to get out of all debt denominated in U.S. dollars, because that really is what S&P is saying here. S&P is saying, “We have so much debt, that if you buy Treasuries, you’re going to lose, because you’re going to be paid back in inflated dollars.” Well, if you lose on Treasuries, you lose on any bond that’s denominated in dollars. In fact, you lose on your dollars. If you have them in your bank. If you have them stuffed underneath your mattress. S&P is telling you, “Get out of dollars.” That’s what I’ve been saying, and now they’re saying it too. Even if they won’t tell it to you that straight, they want to sugar coat it. I never do that.


“S & P AA+ on U.S. Sovereign Debt not Low Enough”
YouTube Video

And the following is from an e-mail I received from his investment services company, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., earlier this evening:

As may have been expected, the majority of investment professionals are reacting perversely to the crisis. On the day after the first ever downgrade was issued on American government debt, investors reacted by igniting one of the biggest rallies in the history of the treasury market. Such an illogical reaction suggests that investments of better value and fundamentals continue to be overlooked.

I see many places to find shelter from the growing economic storm. While media attention is focused on weakness in the Euro, other currencies are doing quite well against the dollar. Over the last 12 months, the Australian dollar is up 12.6%, and the Swiss franc is up 37%. I believe investments that produce reliable income denominated in these, and other, currencies offer meaningful protection from declines in the U.S. dollar. Assets such as non-dollar sovereign bonds, utilities, and real estate trusts all offer these traits. Gold, which I consider to be the only real money, is up 41% so far this year and today had its biggest one day gain in history. I believe that in the current environment exposure to precious metals offers the best way to preserve wealth.

I know a number of mainstream financial/investing types don’t care for Schiff. However, I find it hard to dismiss the views of someone who’s made some terrific calls regarding the direction of the markets/economy over the past couple years- along with others still playing out.

(Note: The author disclaims any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Standard & Poor’s Changes U.S. Rating Outlook To Negative

I was prepping the post “The Crash Prophets Revisited, Part 2” when I heard Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the United States. From the Standard & Poor’s press release announcing the action:

‘AAA/A-1+’ Rating On United States of America Affirmed; Outlook Revised To Negative

• We have affirmed our ‘AAA/A-1+’ sovereign credit ratings on the United States of America.
• The economy of the U.S. is flexible and highly diversified, the country’s effective monetary policies have supported output growth while containing inflationary pressures, and a consistent global preference for the U.S. dollar over all other currencies gives the country unique external liquidity.
• Because the U.S. has, relative to its ‘AAA’ peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable.
• We believe there is a material risk that U.S. policymakers might not reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013; if an agreement is not reached and meaningful implementation is not begun by then, this would in our view render the U.S. fiscal profile meaningfully weaker than that of peer ‘AAA’ sovereigns.

MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein and Deborah Levine wrote about the move this afternoon:

Standard & Poor’s cut its ratings outlook on the U.S. to negative from stable on Monday, lighting a fire under Washington’s deficit-reduction debate and sending stock markets sharply lower.

The rating agency effectively gave Washington a two-year deadline to enact meaningful change, just days after House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and President Barack Obama each outlined their plans for slashing debt. S&P nonetheless kept its highest rating, AAA, on the U.S…

“The fiscal profile of the U.S. is increasingly diverging from that of its AAA peers,” said David Beers, an S&P analyst, on a conference call. “This was the time to update our opinion.”

It’s the first time S&P lowered its outlook for the U.S. from stable… The outlook change indicates a one in three chance of an actual rating downgrade over the next few years, Beers said.

The U.S. is one of 19 sovereign governments rated AAA by S&P, out of 127 rated countries. But all of the closest AAA peers — Germany, France, Canada and the U.K. — have done more to address their fiscal problems coming out of the recession, which in some cases were worse than what the U.S. experienced, analysts said.

You can read the entire press release on Standard & Poor’s website here.

“The Crash Prophets Revisited, Part 2” will be pubished tomorrow.

Sources:

“‘AAA/A-1+’ Rating On United States of America Affirmed; Outlook Revised To Negative.” Standard & Poor’s (Press Release). 18 Apr. 2011. (http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245302886884). 18 Apr. 2011.

Goldstein, Steve and Levine, Deborah. “S&P cuts U.S. rating outlook to negative.” MarketWatch. 18 Apr. 2011. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-cuts-us-rating-outlook-to-negative-2011-04-18?pagenumber=1). 18 Apr. 2011.

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,



Christopher E. Hill, Editor
504582 Visits 11/22/10-10/31/14
Please Rate this Blog HERE

Translate (Allow 1 Minute Per Page To Complete)


by Transposh - translation plugin for wordpress
NEW! Advertising Disclosure HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Buy Gold and Silver JM Bullion Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
MyPatriotSupply.com Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Nitro-Pak--The Emergency Preparedness Leader Nitro-Pak Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Food Insurance Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Survival Titles Save 20% Paladin Press Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
BullionVault BullionVault.com Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
CHIEF Supply Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
bullet proof vests BulletSafe Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
BUDK Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Pyramyd Air is your one-stop shop for everything airgun related. PyramidAir.com Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
Airsoft Megastore Reviewed HERE
ANY CHARACTER HERE
 

Categories

Archives