S&P/Case Shiller

S&P/Case-Shiller: Chicago-Area Home Prices Fall For Third Straight Month

There’s good and bad news with the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price data for the Chicago-area housing market.

The good news? In November 2012, Chicago-area home prices were up 0.8 percent year-over-year.

And the bad? Prices fell for the third straight month. From ChicagoRealEstateDaily.com (a Crain’s Chicago Business enterprise) this morning:

A closely watched index of Chicago-area home prices fell again in November, its third straight drop and the biggest decline among a 20-city index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of Chicago-area single-family home prices fell 1.3 percent from October to November after dropping 1.6 percent from September to October and 0.6 percent from August to September, according to a report released this morning.

For the second straight month, Chicago posted the biggest decline in a 20-city index where prices fell.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

A week ago, the Illinois Association of Realtors released housing data for all of 2012. Mary Ellen Podmolik reported in Sunday’s Chicago Tribune:

On Tuesday, the Illinois Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the nine-county Chicago area rose almost 27 percent in 2012 from 2011. The inventory of available area homes in December plunged 37 percent from its year-ago comparison, which has led to multiple-offer scenarios and quicker marketing times. Still, the annualized median price slipped 1.5 percent from 2011.

Those pesky home prices…

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

“Chicago-area home prices fall for third straight month.” ChicagoRealEstateDaily.com. 29 Jan. 2013. (http://www.chicagorealestatedaily.com/article/20130129/CRED0701/130129771/chicago-area-home-prices-fall-for-third-straight-month). 29 Jan. 2013.

Podmolik, Mary Ellen. “Realtors’ dose of optimism tinged with reality.” Chicago Tribune. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-25/classified/ct-mre-0127-podmolik-homefront-20130125_1_mabel-guzman-median-price-realtors). 29 Jan. 2013.

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Tuesday, January 29th, 2013 Housing, Main Street No Comments

S&P/Case-Shiller: Chicago-Area Home Prices Decline Again

Data through October 2012 from the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price indices paints a not-too-pretty picture for Chicago-area residential real estate. Sandra Guy wrote on the Chicago Sun-Times website yesterday:

The Chicago-area housing market continued to lag national numbers, posting the largest non-seasonally adjusted single-home price decline — 1.5 percent from September to October and 1.3 percent year-over-year — of 20 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller national home price index released Wednesday.

Of the 20 cities, 12 saw housing prices drop.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Recent rising prices have led to claims the U.S. housing market is in recovery-mode.

However, doubts remain. AnnaMaria Andriotis reported on the MarketWatch website on December 20:

But experts say that spike is largely due to the limited number of homes on the market. There were about two million existing homes available for sale at the end of November, which equates to the lowest housing supply since September 2005, according to the NAR. With fewer homes to choose from, buyers intent on purchasing a property are more inclined to offer a higher price or engage in bidding wars, housing analysts say, which ultimately drives prices up.

The problem is this limited inventory underscores a weakness in the housing market: Many sellers have resisted putting their home up for sale, out of concern that it will sell for far less than they paid for it, says Jack McCabe, an independent housing analyst in Deerfield Beach, Fla. That’s set off a domino effect. Because they’ve held off, supply has remained limited, in turn pushing prices up. “Prices have gone up in the last year because of this temporary, artificial market,” he says…

Separately, in some neighborhoods, median or average sales prices are rising because the mix of homes selling has been shifting toward higher-end, more expensive properties — not necessarily because the value of the typical home is rising, says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia.com, a real-estate listing site. Sales of existing single-family homes priced at $1 million or more increased 52% in November from a year ago, a trend that’s been in play for most of the year, according to the NAR.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

More later on these doubts…

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (http://www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Guy, Sandra. “Chicago-area home prices see steepest drop nationwide: report.” Chicago Sun-Times. 26 Dec. 2012. (http://www.suntimes.com/business/17230482-420/chicago-area-home-prices-see-steepest-drop-nationwide-report.html). 27 Dec. 2012.

Andriotis, AnnaMaria. “The real meaning of rising home prices.” MarketWatch. 20 Dec. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-rising-home-prices-2012-12-20). 27 Dec. 2012.

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Thursday, December 27th, 2012 Housing, Recovery No Comments

Robert Shiller: Possible No Major Turnaround For Home Prices ‘In Our Lifetimes’

Last housing piece for today- I promise. One of those “long-time, reputable housing observers” I talked about earlier today chimed in on the latest release of data from the S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas.

It so happens that it’s none other than Dr. Robert Shiller himself.

And what he said is sure to anger the housing bulls- just like back in the housing bubble days. From Steven C. Johnson of Reuters on the Chicago Tribune website today:

The Housing market is likely to remain weak and may take a generation or more to rebound, Yale economics professor Robert Shiller told Reuters Insider on Tuesday.

Shiller, the co-creator of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index, said a weak labor market, high gas prices and a general sense of unease among consumers was outweighing low mortgage rates and would likely keep a lid on prices for the foreseeable future.

“I worry that we might not see a really major turnaround in our lifetimes,” Shiller said…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Johnson added that Dr. Shiller thought suburban areas might see further price declines due to high prices at the pump and the appeal of “walkable cities.”

Now, in case you haven’t heard of Robert Shiller, he was out there warning anyone who would listen about a U.S. housing bubble and impending crash before most. Just lucky? I think not. The Yale professor also predicted the dot-com bubble bursting as well. The last time I discussed Dr. Shiller was back on September 30 of last year, when talking about U.S. home prices with Liz Claman of the FOX Business Channel he warned viewers:

Yes, I worry about that. You know, home prices have kind of come back to a reasonable level based on long history. But, after bubbles, speculative prices sometimes overshoot. And right now we’re in a period of low confidence, and debt crises, with reduced latitude for real stimulus. So it seems to me that they might well continue to fall.

You know, the latest Case-Shiller numbers were up though, at least on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis. So it’s no so clear where they’re going.

Probably not straight back up anytime soon, according to Shiller.

Source:

Johnson, Steven C. “Maybe no housing rebound for a generation: Shiller.” Chicago Tribune. 24 Apr. 2012. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-usa-housing-reboundbre83n0sk-20120424,0,3106694.story). 24 Apr. 2012.

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Chicagoland Home Prices Down Around 40 Percent Since September 2006 Peak

Housing prices in the Chicagoland area continue to deteriorate. Mary Ellen Podmolik wrote on the Chicago Tribune website this morning:

Home values in the Chicago area and eight other cities hit new post-housing crisis lows in February, according to a widely watched gauge of the real estate market released Tuesday.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index found that home values in the Chicago area fell 2.5 percent in February, on top of a 1.9 percent decline in January. On an annualized basis, sales prices of home in the Chicago area are down 6.9 percent.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Let’s see. 2.5 percent decline in February. 1.9 percent fall in January. And back on February 28, Podmolik wrote on the Tribune website:

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index said Chicago-area home prices were at their April 2001 level as 2011 ended, a drop of almost 35 percent since the local housing market peaked in September 2006.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

2.5 percent plus 1.9 percent plus 35 percent means Chicagoland home prices have fallen around 40 percent since the local housing market peaked back in September 2006.

Ouch.

Podmolik added in today’s piece:

February marked the sixth consecutive monthly decline for local home prices and puts them at a level comparable to where prices were in May and June of 2000.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Ah, yes. Part of that dreaded “double-dip” in housing prices that a number of “experts” said wouldn’t happen.

I wonder where those guys/gals are hiding these days?

Sources:

Podmolik, Mary Ellen. “Chicago-area home prices continue slide in February.” Chicago Tribune. 24 Apr. 2012. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-chicago-home-prices-continue-slide-in-february-20120424,0,4629459.story). 24 Apr. 2012.

Podmolik, Mary Ellen. “Chicago-area home prices fall in December.” Chicago Tribune. 28 Feb. 2012. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-02-28/business/chi-chicagoarea-home-prices-fall-in-december-20120228_1_home-prices-index-committee-chairman-single-family-homes-and-condominiums). 24 Apr. 2012.

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Tuesday, April 24th, 2012 Housing No Comments

U.S. Home Prices, Housing Market Finally Recovering?

When conducting research, I like to keep an open mind about the news sources I use. For example, I read both the FOX News and MSNBC websites daily during the business week- among others. Not taking this diverse approach might prevent me from getting the whole story. Take the following from MSNBC.com this morning:

“Home prices up for first time in 10 months”

Single-family home prices rose for the first time in 10 months, in an encouraging sign the battered sector is starting to stabilize, a closely watched survey said on Tuesday.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching economists’ forecasts.

It was the first time prices have gained since April 2011…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Now, look at what appeared on the finance/investing website MarketWatch.com this morning:

“U.S. home prices fall to nearly decade low”

February prices down 0.8% on the month

U.S. home prices dropped sharply in February to hit the worst level in nearly a decade, according to a closely followed index released Tuesday.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite fell 0.8% compared to January levels to take the year-on-year drop to 3.5%. The index is at its lowest level since October 2002. Of the 20 cities measured, 16 had negative readings and only three showed gains.

The decline may be due to the typical pattern of diminished interest during the winter and heightened interest in housing during the spring and summer, as prices rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the first rise since April 2011. S&P says the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

“S&P says the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator”

So while the index creators point out that “the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator,” MSNBC utilized the latest data from the adjusted (less reliable) series for a positive piece about the U.S. housing market, writing stuff like:

“Home prices up for first time in 10 months”

And:

“an encouraging sign the battered sector is starting to stabilize”

To be fair, MSNBC included the following later on in the article:

But on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the 20-city index was down 0.8 percent at 134.20, the lowest since October 2002.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Still, the gist of the piece seems to be that U.S. home prices and the housing market are recovering- something that a number of long-time, reputable housing observers can’t say is true.

So, is MSNBC now a housing shill? Are they trying to put a positive spin on housing as part of a larger effort to get President Obama re-elected, as some would have you believe? I don’t know. But I am certain of this. Theirs isn’t the whole story as it concerns the direction of U.S. home prices and the overall housing market.

Sources:

“Home prices up for first time in 10 months.” MSNBC. 24 Apr. 2012. (http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/24/11369617-home-prices-up-for-first-time-in-10-months?lite). 24 Apr. 2012.

Goldstein, Steve. “U.S. home prices fall to nearly decade low.” MarketWatch. 24 Apr. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-prices-fall-to-nearly-decade-low-2012-04-24). 24 Apr. 2012.

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Tuesday, April 24th, 2012 Housing, Mainstream Media, Propaganda No Comments

More Confirmation Of Double-Dip In U.S. Home Prices

Yet more evidence that U.S. home prices nationwide have entered that dreaded “double-dip” territory comes to us courtesy of an S&P/Case Shiller index this morning. From the MSNBC website today:

U.S. single-family home prices dropped into double-dip territory in March as the housing market remained bogged down by inventory and weak demand, a closely watched survey said on Tuesday.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.2 percent in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists’ expectations. The new data show home prices have reached their lowest points since the housing bubble burst in 2006.

“This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, said in a statement. “Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Back on May 5th, I noted that CNBC’s Diana Olick pointed to a recent report from analytics firm Clear Capital as evidence that home prices nationwide had double-dipped, lower than their March 2009 trough.

Source:

“Home prices drop into double-dip territory.” MSNBC.com. 31 May 2011. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43222187/). 31 May 2011.

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Tuesday, May 31st, 2011 Housing, Main Street No Comments


Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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