Standard & Poor’s

Illinois Senate President John Cullerton Says No State Public Pension Crisis

“Five million dollars a day. That’s the cost of Illinois’ unresolved pension crisis.”

-Jay Levine, Channel 2 News (Chicago CBS affiliate) reporter, October 18, 2013

Five million dollars a day being flushed down the toilet because Illinois politicians haven’t tackled the state’s public pension crisis.

By the way, that pension liability now amounts to a worst-in-the-nation $100 billion last I heard.

And here’s what Illinois Senate President John Cullerton said yesterday about the ongoing fiasco. From the Chicago Tribune website this morning:

“People really misunderstand the nature of this whole problem. Quite frankly, I don’t think you can use the word ‘crisis’ to describe it at the state level,” Cullerton said in an interview on WGN-AM radio.

“It’s something we have to deal with, but it’s not something that we’re on the verge of bankruptcy on,” Cullerton said.

The term “Ivory Tower” comes to mind here.

Meanwhile, it’s probably just a matter of time now before a major credit rating agency downgrades the State’s debt yet again due to the inability of the political leadership to deal with the crisis.

According to the Illinois Watchdog website, Illinois has seen its credit downgraded 16 times since 2003, with both Fitch and Standard and Poor’s currently assigning an “A-” rating to its debt.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Levine, Jay. “Lawmakers May Take Up Pension Reform, Gun Control In Veto Session.” CBS Chicago. 18 Oct. 2013. (http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/10/18/lawmakers-may-take-up-pension-reform-gun-control-in-veto-session/). 21 Oct. 2013.

“Cullerton: Illinois pension debt not a ‘crisis’” Chicago Tribune. 21 Oct. 2013. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-cullerton-pension-debt-not-a-crisis-but-about-lowering-taxes-20131020,0,4245590.story). 21 Oct. 2013.

Yount, Ben. “Illinois can stand as a lesson in government-gone-wild.” Illinois Watchdog. 10 Oct. 2013. (http://watchdog.org/110131/illinois-can-stand-as-a-lesson-in-government-gone-wild/). 21 Oct. 2013.

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Illinois Bond Issue Halted Due To Credit Concerns

Today, residents of the state of Illinois saw the repercussions of having $8 billion of unpaid bills, a $96.8 billion pension funding gap, and falling credit ratings. Karen Pierog reported on the Reuters website:

Illinois yanked a $500 million general obligation bond issue slated for Wednesday because of credit concerns that could boost its borrowing costs, in the latest financial blow to the state, which has failed to fix its bloated public pensions.

Investment banks that planned to bid on the debt indicated investors would demand higher yields on the 25-year bonds, said John Sinsheimer, Illinois’ capital markets director.

“We were getting indications of higher spreads than we were anticipating,” said Sinsheimer, who declined to discuss specific spread levels. “We felt it was prudent to pull the deal for the time being.”

(Editor’s notes: Italics added for emphasis)

Pierog pointed out:

Illinois is already faced with the highest spreads – 137 basis points in the latest week – over Municipal Market Data’s benchmark triple-A scale among states and cities tracked by MMD, a unit of Thomson Reuters.

Over the weekend, I noted Standard & Poor’s downgraded the State of Illinois on Friday to an “A-” rating with a negative outlook- last among all 50 states. I added that among other major credit rating agencies, Moody’s also ranks Illinois last of all the U.S. states and Fitch ranks it 49th but on watch for a possible downgrade.

As for Illinois taxpayers? They may have to pay tens of millions of dollars more in interest when the state looks to borrow more money- like what almost happened today.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Pierog, Karen. “UPDATE 2-Illinois pulls $500 mln bond sale amid credit concerns.” Reuters. 30 Jan 2013. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/illinois-bonds-idUSL1N0AZ6TQ20130130). 30 Jan. 2013.

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S&P Downgrades Illinois Credit Rating To Worst In Nation

When I heard a major credit rating agency had downgraded Illinois Friday, the term “death spiral state” quickly came to mind.

And then my thoughts turned to the tens of millions of dollars Illinois taxpayers might be on the hook for down the road.

Ray Long and Monique Garcia reported on the Chicago Tribune website Friday:

Illinois fell to the bottom of all 50 states in the rankings of a major credit ratings agency Friday following the failure of Gov. Pat Quinn and lawmakers to fix the state’s hemorrhaging pension system during this month’s lame-duck session.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service downgraded Illinois in what is the latest fallout over the $96.8 billion debt to five state pension systems. The New York rating firm’s ranking signaled taxpayers may pay tens of millions of dollars more in interest when the state borrows money for roads and other projects.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Illinois now has an “A-” rating with a negative outlook from S&P. Among other major credit rating agencies, Moody’s ranks Illinois last among the 50 states and Fitch ranks it 49th but on watch for a possible downgrade.

Regarding the state’s huge pension funding gap, Mark Peters wrote on the Wall Street Journal website Friday:

S&P estimates the pension system in the coming year will see assets fall to 39% of future obligations.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Hardly any talk about the crisis in the local mainstream media outlets this weekend. Amazing. I can’t understand why more Illinois residents aren’t up in arms over this humongous financial mess the state is in.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Garcia, Monique and Long, Ray. “Illinois credit rating sinks to worst in nation.” Chicago Tribune. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-25/news/chi-illinois-credit-rating-sinks-to-worst-in-nation-20130125_1_action-on-pension-reform-robin-prunty-illinois-credit). 27 Jan. 2013.

Peters, Mark. “S&P Cuts Illinois Credit Rating.” Wall Street Journal. 25 Jan. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324539304578264293106044944.html). 27 Jan. 2013.

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S&P: U.S. Has 20 To 25 Percent Chance Of ‘Double-Dip’ Recession, Eurozone Enters New One

The economists over at well-known American financial services company Standard & Poor’s (S&P) are warning about a possible “double-dip” recession for the United States, and are saying the Eurozone has entered a new one. Agustino Fontevecchia wrote last Friday on the Forbes website:

There’s a 20% to 25% chance that the U.S. economy will suffer a double-dip recession, according to a report by Standard & Poor’s. The credit rating agency which downgraded the U.S.’ sovereign credit rating last year noted unemployment could peak above 9%, real GDP would contract 0.9%, and housing markets would once again collapse under their adverse scenario. The catalyst: Congress failing to reach an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff.

No matter what happens, a strong economic recovery is “a long ways away,” explained S&P’s deputy chief economist, Beth Ann Bovino. A poor labor market, with businesses adding a paltry 97,000 jobs per month over the last six months, has kept the economic recovery in “slow gear.” (During the winter, the economy added an average 240,000 jobs per month, she noted).

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

This warning of an economic slowdown echoes what S&P economists were saying a month prior. From the AFP website on August 21:

The odds the United States will slip back into recession next year have risen, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said, citing risks from the European debt crisis and budget tightening at year-end.

The US ratings firm raised the chance of the US falling into recession to 25 percent, up from a 20 percent chance estimated in February, as the world’s largest economy struggles to recover from a severe 2008-2009 slump.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Just this morning, S&P said the Eurozone was entering a new recession. Steve Gelsi wrote on the MarketWatch website:

The data are confirming our view that the [Eurozone] region is entering a new period of recession, after three quarters of negative or flat growth since the final quarter of 2010,” according to Jean-Michel Six, the rating agency’s chief economist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Sources:

Fontevecchia, Agustino. “Double-Dip Recession 20% To 25% Likely If Fiscal Cliff Hits, S&P Warns.” Forbes. 21 Sep. 2012. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/09/21/double-dip-recession-20-to-25-likely-if-fiscal-cliff-hits-sp-warns/). 25 Sep. 2012.

“Risk of US double-dip recession rises: S&P.” Agence France-Presse. 21 Aug. 2012. (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hUW6S9xn4PTe3Oy6FaZ5SqADbALw?docId=CNG.9261c794f17a86efcc8
014d16fa164f9.121). 25 Sep. 2012.

Gelsi, Steve. “S&P says new recession hitting euro zone.” MarketWatch. 25 Sep. 2012. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-says-new-recession-hitting-euro-zone-2012-09-25?reflink=MW_news_stmp). 25 Sep. 2012.

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Is Illinois Greece?

If California is Greece, then Illinois is Spain.

-Panelist at June’s “State of the Nonprofit” conference in Chicago (hat tip The Greater Good blog)

The proverbial brick wall keeps getting closer in Illinois. And even though the state’s financial woes- and what needs to be done to fix them- are painfully obvious, the politicians carry on as if it were business as usual.

The problem is, it’s not. And years of fiscal mismanagement are really starting to bite the “Land of Lincoln” in its rear-end.

Take the state’s credit ratings, for example. From Karen Pierog on the Chicago Tribune website yesterday:

Illinois lawmakers’ inability to reform a woefully underfunded public retirement system at a special session last Friday is likely to weigh on the state’s already relatively low credit ratings.

“We are in the process of reviewing the total credit picture, including the budget, pensions, etc,” Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services analyst Robin Prunty said on Tuesday.

“But certainly, the lack of action on pensions is not a credit positive.”

Pierog, who is affiliated with Reuters, added:

S&P, which rates Illinois A-plus with a negative outlook, put the state on notice in March that it could face a multiple-notch general obligation rating downgrade if there is no “credible progress” in taming its huge $83 billion unfunded pension liability and on tackling a structural budget imbalance.

Another credit rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service, downgraded the State of Illinois to A2 from A1 earlier this year.

According to the California State Treasurer’s website this morning, California’s S&P and Moody’s credit ratings are A- (lower than Illinois) and A1 (higher than Illinois), respectively.

But it’s not just credit ratings where years of poor policymaking are coming back to haunt the state. Pierog noted:

Investors are demanding higher yields to invest in Illinois’ bonds as its so-called credit spread over Municipal Market Data’s benchmark triple-A scale for 10-year debt is the widest at 157 basis points among major U.S. city and state debt issuers tracked by MMD, a unit of Thomson Reuters. California’s spread by comparison is less than half of Illinois’ at 66 basis points.

Perhaps that panelist got it wrong. California could be Spain, and Illinois, Greece.

Source:

Pierog, Karen. “Illinois’ inaction on pensions in rating agency crosshairs.” Chicago Tribune. 21 Aug. 2012. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-illinois-pension-ratingbre87k0uj-20120821,0,6367324.story). 22 Aug. 2012.

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Peter Schiff: ‘We Are Either In, Or On The Cusp Of, A Brand New Recession’

Tonight I’ve been reviewing some of the latest material from Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. Schiff, as most of you may know, correctly-called the latest financial crisis the United States still finds itself in. From the Schiff Report YouTube Video Blog this past Saturday:

We are either in, or on the cusp of, a brand new recession. And remember, contrary to previous recessions, this one is starting, starting, with unemployment above nine percent, starting with interest rates already at zero. So, imagine what’s going to happen when we get the next round of fiscal stimulus- they’re going to blow the deficit off the charts. And of course, the Fed can’t do anything on the rate front. All they can do is print more money, which destroys the value of U.S. bonds. So I think S&P again is being much too generous with their rating forecast…

So, that is my warning to everybody, and I’ve been saying it. You can’t just get out of Treasuries. You need to get out of all debt denominated in U.S. dollars, because that really is what S&P is saying here. S&P is saying, “We have so much debt, that if you buy Treasuries, you’re going to lose, because you’re going to be paid back in inflated dollars.” Well, if you lose on Treasuries, you lose on any bond that’s denominated in dollars. In fact, you lose on your dollars. If you have them in your bank. If you have them stuffed underneath your mattress. S&P is telling you, “Get out of dollars.” That’s what I’ve been saying, and now they’re saying it too. Even if they won’t tell it to you that straight, they want to sugar coat it. I never do that.


“S & P AA+ on U.S. Sovereign Debt not Low Enough”
YouTube Video

And the following is from an e-mail I received from his investment services company, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., earlier this evening:

As may have been expected, the majority of investment professionals are reacting perversely to the crisis. On the day after the first ever downgrade was issued on American government debt, investors reacted by igniting one of the biggest rallies in the history of the treasury market. Such an illogical reaction suggests that investments of better value and fundamentals continue to be overlooked.

I see many places to find shelter from the growing economic storm. While media attention is focused on weakness in the Euro, other currencies are doing quite well against the dollar. Over the last 12 months, the Australian dollar is up 12.6%, and the Swiss franc is up 37%. I believe investments that produce reliable income denominated in these, and other, currencies offer meaningful protection from declines in the U.S. dollar. Assets such as non-dollar sovereign bonds, utilities, and real estate trusts all offer these traits. Gold, which I consider to be the only real money, is up 41% so far this year and today had its biggest one day gain in history. I believe that in the current environment exposure to precious metals offers the best way to preserve wealth.

I know a number of mainstream financial/investing types don’t care for Schiff. However, I find it hard to dismiss the views of someone who’s made some terrific calls regarding the direction of the markets/economy over the past couple years- along with others still playing out.

(Note: The author disclaims any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Warren Buffett Still Bullish On America, But Not The Dollar

On Wednesday, April 20, I revisited one of my original “crash prophets,” Warren Buffett, to see what the “Oracle of Omaha” thought might be in store for the U.S. economy down the road. In the latest Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Shareholder Letter that was released on February 26, Buffett, its chairman and CEO, stated that, “America’s best days lie ahead.” However, the third richest person in the world (2011 Forbes list) didn’t share that bullish outlook for the U.S. dollar. From that April post:

The Motley Fool’s Rich Smith wrote on the MSNBC website on March 28:

Let the word go forth: On Friday, March 25, 2011, Warren Buffett predicted the decline of the U.S. dollar.

In a speech given in New Delhi (where he’s hunting up some cheap Indian stocks), the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway warned investors to avoid “long-term fixed-dollar investments” such as 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Buffett worries that the $2.3 trillion in new money our government has pumped into the economy, when combined with interest rates so low they’re practically giving money away, are combining to dilute the value of the dollar.

As a result, Buffett warns: “If you ask me if the U.S. Dollar is going to hold its purchasing power fully at the level of 2011, 5 years, 10 years or 20 years from now, I would tell you it will not.”

What’s more, he’s matching actions to words. Over the last couple of years, Buffett has been selling off longer-dated bond holdings, shifting assets into cash and shorter-dated paper. Berkshire’s holdings of debt dated longer than 10 years dropped 31% over the past 18 months, while Berkshire’s cash holdings leapt 56%.

This weekend, the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting took place in Omaha, and Warren Buffett shared his forecasts for the United States and its currency with attendees. Reuters’ Ben Berkowitz wrote yesterday:

Tens of thousands of Berkshire Hathaway shareholders who descended on Omaha this weekend for the conglomerate’s annual meeting got one unmistakable message from Buffett — no matter how bad the economy, or the deficit, or the political divide, the United States is as good a place to live and work as ever.

“I don’t see how anybody can be other than enthused about this country,” Buffett told Berkshire (BRKa.N) shareholders on Saturday…

The comments echo those Buffett made in February in his annual shareholder letter, but the words still may encourage investors looking sideways at the country, particularly after Standard & Poor’s put the U.S. government’s critical “AAA” credit rating on a negative credit watch.

Buffett told Reuters Insider that S&P’s move was premature, given the U.S. government issues debt only in dollars and can simply print more money to pay debt if absolutely needed.

“The United States is not going to default on any obligation,” Buffett told Insider in an interview after the annual meeting. “We are not a credit risk, believe me.”

Furthermore, “The World’s Greatest Investor” isn’t worried about another banking crisis anytime soon. Berkowitz added:

Buffett also affirmed his support for the banking sector, where he has big bets on Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and U.S. Bancorp (USB.N), calling the odds of another banking crisis “very very low.”

However, Buffett is still wary of the greenback. From the piece:

Where Buffett’s enthusiasm wanes to any degree, it is mostly in conversation on the dollar, which he said is sure to weaken over time, like most other currencies.

Buffett, as usual, said he was shying away from fixed-income investments for Berkshire’s part, even as he keeps some of his personal wealth in Treasuries for safety’s sake.

Source:

Berkowitz, Ben. “UPDATE 1-Buffett remains solid on the American economy.” Reuters. 1 May. 2011. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/01/buffett-economy-idUSN0113337320110501). 2 May. 2011.

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Standard & Poor’s Changes U.S. Rating Outlook To Negative

I was prepping the post “The Crash Prophets Revisited, Part 2” when I heard Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the United States. From the Standard & Poor’s press release announcing the action:

‘AAA/A-1+’ Rating On United States of America Affirmed; Outlook Revised To Negative

• We have affirmed our ‘AAA/A-1+’ sovereign credit ratings on the United States of America.
• The economy of the U.S. is flexible and highly diversified, the country’s effective monetary policies have supported output growth while containing inflationary pressures, and a consistent global preference for the U.S. dollar over all other currencies gives the country unique external liquidity.
• Because the U.S. has, relative to its ‘AAA’ peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable.
• We believe there is a material risk that U.S. policymakers might not reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013; if an agreement is not reached and meaningful implementation is not begun by then, this would in our view render the U.S. fiscal profile meaningfully weaker than that of peer ‘AAA’ sovereigns.

MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein and Deborah Levine wrote about the move this afternoon:

Standard & Poor’s cut its ratings outlook on the U.S. to negative from stable on Monday, lighting a fire under Washington’s deficit-reduction debate and sending stock markets sharply lower.

The rating agency effectively gave Washington a two-year deadline to enact meaningful change, just days after House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and President Barack Obama each outlined their plans for slashing debt. S&P nonetheless kept its highest rating, AAA, on the U.S…

“The fiscal profile of the U.S. is increasingly diverging from that of its AAA peers,” said David Beers, an S&P analyst, on a conference call. “This was the time to update our opinion.”

It’s the first time S&P lowered its outlook for the U.S. from stable… The outlook change indicates a one in three chance of an actual rating downgrade over the next few years, Beers said.

The U.S. is one of 19 sovereign governments rated AAA by S&P, out of 127 rated countries. But all of the closest AAA peers — Germany, France, Canada and the U.K. — have done more to address their fiscal problems coming out of the recession, which in some cases were worse than what the U.S. experienced, analysts said.

You can read the entire press release on Standard & Poor’s website here.

“The Crash Prophets Revisited, Part 2” will be pubished tomorrow.

Sources:

“‘AAA/A-1+’ Rating On United States of America Affirmed; Outlook Revised To Negative.” Standard & Poor’s (Press Release). 18 Apr. 2011. (http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245302886884). 18 Apr. 2011.

Goldstein, Steve and Levine, Deborah. “S&P cuts U.S. rating outlook to negative.” MarketWatch. 18 Apr. 2011. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-cuts-us-rating-outlook-to-negative-2011-04-18?pagenumber=1). 18 Apr. 2011.

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Portugal, Greece See Credit Ratings Downgraded, Survey Suggests European Defaults

While the mainstream media keeps talking about a reviving U.S. economy this week- bad news piles up across the pond. From the New York Times’ Matthew Saltmarsh yesterday:

Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that it had cut its sovereign credit ratings for Portugal and Greece, piling further pressure on the two countries with heavy debt loads, weak economies and moribund banks.

S. & P. cut Portugal’s rating to BBB– from BBB, with a negative outlook, the agency’s second downgrade of the country since Friday. BBB- is the agency’s lowest investment grade rating and is just one notch above junk. The Greek rating, which had already been cut to junk, was lowered to BB– from BB+.

Richard McGuire, a fixed income strategist at Rabobank in London, said the steps confirmed investor perceptions that Greece would have to default on some of it debt and that a similar outcome was “increasingly likely” for Portugal. He added that the European bailout mechanisms were inadequate, likening them to attaching a first-aid bandage “to a festering wound.”

“It’s a liquidity solution to a solvency problem,” he added.

The downgrades come after the results of a BBC World Service survey of European economists were published which showed many of them think Greece might default on its debt. BBC News’ Andrew Walker wrote Monday:

Greece is likely to default on its sovereign debt, according to the majority of respondents to a BBC World Service survey of European economists.

Two-thirds of the 52 respondents forecast a default, but most said the euro would survive in its current form…

Nearly two-thirds of respondents – 25 out of 38 – said there would be a default. All of them said Greece would probably fail to pay all its debts…

More than a third – 14 – said the Irish Republic would do so as well. Seven of them… predicted a default by Portugal.

Sources:

Saltmarsh, Matthew. “S.&P. Downgrades Portugal and Greece Again.” New York Times. 29 Mar. 2011. (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/business/global/30euro.html). 30 Mar. 2011.

Walker, Andrew. “Euro economists expect Greek default, BBC survey finds.” BBC News. 28 Mar. 2011. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12864413). 30 Mar. 2011.

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Wednesday, March 30th, 2011 Debt Crisis, Defaults, Europe No Comments

Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s Warn About U.S. Credit Rating

Currently, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s give the United States the highest possible credit rating. But that could change if America’s financial health continues to deteriorate. From the Wall Street Journal’s Nathalie Boschat, Mark Brown, and Mark Gongloff on January 14:

With attention focused on sovereign-debt worries in Europe, two major credit-rating firms reminded investors again that the U.S. has debt problems of its own…

Moody’s Investors Service said in a report on Thursday that the U.S. will need to reverse the expansion of its debt if it hopes to keep its “Aaa” rating.

“We have become increasingly clear about the fact that if there are not offsetting measures to reverse the deterioration in negative fundamentals in the U.S., the likelihood of a negative outlook over the next two years will increase,” Sarah Carlson, senior analyst at Moody’s, said.

Separately, Carol Sirou, head of Standard & Poor’s France, told a Paris conference on Thursday that the firm couldn’t rule out lowering the outlook for the U.S. rating in the future.

“The view of markets is that the U.S. will continue to benefit from the exorbitant privilege linked to the U.S. dollar” to fund its deficits, Ms. Sirou said. “But that may change.”

U.S. government debt has surged to an all-time high, topping $14 trillion, or $45,300 owed by each American.

Source:

Boschat, Nathalie, Brown, Mark, and Gongloff, Mark. “S&P, Moody’s Warn On U.S. Credit Rating.” Wall Street Journal. 14 Jan. 2011. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703583404576079311379009904.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_News_BlogsModule). 17 Jan. 2011.

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Tuesday, January 18th, 2011 Debt Crisis, Government 1 Comment


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