Taiwan

Jim Rogers Predicts ‘A Canned Goods Kind Of Time’ In The Next Few Years

In our present discussion of money/investing matters on Survival And Prosperity I’ve already brought up one “crash prophet” this week in Jeremy Grantham. Today, I want to talk about another “prophet”- investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers.

The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund is not as optimistic about the U.S. stock market as his British colleague. Rogers sat down with Pete Sweeney, Asia Editor of Reuters BREAKINGVIEWS, and issued the following warning in a November 22 podcast. From their exchange:

REUTERS: You’ve been predicting of late a big market crash to come. Now, as we have markets hitting new highs every minute it seems and people are shorting volatility indexes apparently. I just want to move us forward a little bit. Let’s assume it does happen next year. Let’s assume all this crazy happiness evaporates in a big disaster. What do you think the strategy is for positioning in terms of assets, regions?
ROGERS: Look, let me make sure that we have it clear. What I have said was, that we will have a bear market again some day. Now, Janet Yellen, the head of the Federal Reserve in America, says we won’t. She says everything is okay now and there won’t be anymore economic problems. I happen to disagree with her, and I know we will have bear markets again. And what I said was, the next one we have when it comes is going to be the worst in your life- the worst in my lifetime. And I think I’m older than you. The reason for that being, 2008 we had a problem- too much debt. We had a problem. The next time around debt, is so, so, so much higher Pete. In the last nine years debt has skyrocketed. So the next time we have a bear market, it’s going to be the worst in my lifetime. I wish I were smart enough to know when.
REUTERS: I’m just saying, for a hypothetical, because you’ve been watching these asset markets, because I hear people talking about this a lot. The question is, how do you make money off of it? You’re an investor. So you short everything? Do you buy canned goods, ammo, stuff? What looks attractive to you, assuming that you’re bearish on this?
ROGERS: Well, I’m not short. I bought stocks this week in China, in Japan, Zimbabwe, Taiwan. So I see opportunities on the long side in markets. Doesn’t mean I’m right. The bear market maybe start today. No, but I see opportunities. But if you’re worried about that you do need to learn how to sell short. Great fortunes can be made in a bear market selling short. I’m not sure canned goods is the place yet. No, no, don’t laugh, because we’re going to have some time in the next few years a canned goods kind of time. We’re going to have serious, serious problems in the world. I’m not sure canned goods is for the next bear market. But it’s… don’t forget your canned goods.

The commodities “guru” is still bullish on agriculture, suggesting:

If you’re worried about the world, and we are going to have a serious bear market, you should think about agriculture. Because agriculture will probably do well. That is a place that will probably disconnect, to use your term, in the next bear market.

The Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. elaborated on his new acquisitions, telling listeners:

I bought Japanese ETFs, Chinese ETFs, Taiwan ETFs, and Zimbabwe, the comparable of ETFs in Zimbabwe.

Finally, Rogers shared the following as the interview came to a close:

I own Japanese shares. Am I going to make money? I don’t know. But my view is, the Japanese stock market may go back to its all-time highs. And that would be a double if it does…

At the moment, I still see reasons to be optimistic in some markets that are still very depressed compared to the ones going through the roof.

Good interview questions and even better replies from the Singapore-based Rogers. You can listen to the entire 13-minute interview on the Reuters BREAKINGVIEWS website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. Christopher E. Hill, the creator/Editor of this blog, is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented on the site.)

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Could California’s Recent Heavy Rainfall Trigger A Big Earthquake?

“20 inches of rain, 12 feet of snow finally end 5-year drought in N. California”

USA TODAY website, January 12, 2017

“Drenched: How L.A. went from bone-dry to 216% of normal rainfall in four months”

Los Angeles Times website, January 23, 2017

“Parts Of California See 300 Percent Of Normal January Rainfall”

-CBS Los Angeles website, January 24, 2017

“Flooding rain, mountain snow to pound western US into the weekend”

-AccuWeather.com, February 2, 2017

It’s been some time since I last blogged about California and its earthquake threat. And just recently, I learned there could be a connection between heavy rainfall and big earthquakes (hat-tip Armstrong Economics Blog).

Considering the deluge California received last month (with more coming, by the sounds of it), I wonder if the odds of a major tremblor happening soon have increased in “The Golden State”?

Richard A Lovett reported on the National Geographic website back on December 15, 2011:

Heavy rainfall can trigger earthquakes in what one scientist calls “disaster triggering disaster.”

Shimon Wdowinski, of the University of Miami in Florida, first noticed a connection between storms and earthquakes last year.

The devastating magnitude 7.0 earthquake that hit Haiti in early 2010 came only 18 months after Haiti had been deluged by several hurricanes and tropical storms.

And another large earthquake, a magnitude 6.4 temblor that rocked Taiwan in 2009, occurred only seven months after the area had been hit by Typhoon Morakot, which dropped 9.5 feet (2.9 meters) of rain in five days. Hurricanes are called typhoons in parts of Asia.

To test the rainfall-earthquake link, Wdowinski dug through the past 50 years of earthquake and weather records for Taiwan, an island that experiences a lot of severe rainstorms and earthquakes.

He found that a magnitude 7.6 earthquake had struck in 1999, only three years after Typhoon Herb soaked Taiwan with 6.6 feet (2 meters) of rain.

Overall, his analysis revealed that Taiwan’s large earthquakes- deemed as magnitude 6 and higher- were five times more likely to occur within four years after such storms than if the storms had had no effect

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

According to Dr. Wdowinski, erosion from landslides is the main culprit, which lessens stress on underlying rocks, therefore making it easier for a fault to move.

Back on January 23, Matt Hamilton and Hailey Branson-Potts reported on the Los Angeles Times website:

After another round of heavy rains soaked parts of California, Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency late Monday for several counties dealing with an estimated tens of million dollars in damage from flooding, erosion, and mud flows…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I wonder what Professor Wdowinski’s take on California’s situation would be?

Hopefully, nothing to worry about.

You can read that National Geographic article here on the magazine’s website. Very interesting stuff.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Branson-Potts, Hailey and Hamilton, Matt Hamilton. “Gov. Brown declares state of emergency after storms cause flooding, erosion, highway damage.” Los Angeles Times. 23 Jan. 2017. (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-la-rain-monday-20170123-story.html). 2 Feb. 2017.

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Thursday, February 2nd, 2017 Asia, Emergencies, Natural Disasters, Science, Weather No Comments

Resource Of The Week: HealthMap

“The world needs to be prepared for ‘unpredictable pandemics’ from viruses making the leap from animals to people, scientists in Taiwan say.

Their warning follows the first reported case of a common bird flu, H6N1, being detected in a woman, earlier this year.

The patient recovered and no other cases have been detected.

But the Lancet Respiratory Medicine report said “intensive” monitoring of bird flu was needed…”

-BBC News website, November 14, 2013

It’s been some time since I published a “Resource Of The Week.”

I apologize for that.

You may recall that the last couple of ROTW posts had to do with the monitoring of potential threats. First, there was the TESIS Geomagnetic Activity Forecast (I now find myself stopping by here every couple of days). Next, there was the National Hurricane Center website. Most recently, there was NOAA’s National Weather Service Tsunami Warning Center websites.

Tonight, I want to talk about another monitoring resource.

Enter HealthMap. From their website:

HealthMap, a team of researchers, epidemiologists and software developers at Boston Children’s Hospital founded in 2006, is an established global leader in utilizing online informal sources for disease outbreak monitoring and real-time surveillance of emerging public health threats. The freely available Web site ‘healthmap.org’ and mobile app ‘Outbreaks Near Me’ deliver real-time intelligence on a broad range of emerging infectious diseases for a diverse audience including libraries, local health departments, governments, and international travelers. HealthMap brings together disparate data sources, including online news aggregators, eyewitness reports, expert-curated discussions and validated official reports, to achieve a unified and comprehensive view of the current global state of infectious diseases and their effect on human and animal health. Through an automated process, updating 24/7/365, the system monitors, organizes, integrates, filters, visualizes and disseminates online information about emerging diseases in nine languages, facilitating early detection of global public health threats.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Playing around a bit with it tonight, HealthMap looks to be a promising tool for monitoring emerging public health dangers. Especially as it has an alert capability. From the “Mobile” area of the website:

Outbreaks Near Me

With HealthMap’s Outbreaks Near Me application, you have all of HealthMap’s latest real-time disease outbreak information at your fingertips. Open the app and see all current outbreaks in your neighborhood, including news about H1N1 influenza (“swine flu”). Search and browse outbreak reports on the interactive map, and set up the app to alert you with a notice automatically whenever an outbreak is occurring in your area. If you know of an outbreak not yet on the map, be the first to report it using the app’s unique outbreak reporting feature. You will be credited and your report will be featured on the website.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

When it comes to a pandemic, it’s always nice to have the skinny on the developing event in case you need to get some last-minute preps for you and your loved ones. HealthMap might be an effective early-warning system in this respect.

Check it out here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: Link added to “Resources” page)

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Jim Rogers Sees Another Crisis ‘Over The Next 18 Months’

The Gulf News (UAE) recently ran an insightful piece on legendary investor Jim Rogers. Senior Associate Editor Mick O’Reilly spoke with the commodities guru about a number of topics, and the discussion appeared on the publication’s website on March 13, 2012.

Rogers believes that the next crisis is dead-ahead. He told O’Reilly:

It’s only a matter of time before the next crisis comes. Maybe by the end of this year, probably by the end of next year.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Referring to the massive amount of money printing going on under the Federal Reserve’s watch, Rogers added:

Sure, when the next blow comes, and it will over the next 18 months, we have nothing left.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

18 months? That’s September 2013.

Looking further down the road, Rogers still believes Asia remains the future. The CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. told the Gulf News:

Europe is finished. The US is broken. Asia is where it’s at.

And as to where the former partner of George Soros is placing his money these days? O’Reilly wrote:

I have only started to get back into stocks now, nothing serious,” he answers. His money is tied up in anything to do with agriculture, currencies, silver

Rogers has put his money where his mouth is and is heavily into Japan, Taiwan, China, Korea and Singapore.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

The Singapore-based investor added:

My advice to young people would be to get into agriculture. If you want to make money over the next 20 years, agriculture is the way to go. If you don’t want to be a farmer, buy the Lamborghini dealership or a restaurant in Iowa. Why? Because the farmers in Iowa are going to be very wealthy. And they will be able to afford Lamborghinis. Fewer and fewer people are producing more and more food for more and more of us. That’s only going to get worse over the next 20 or 30 years. So if you’re smart, put your money into anything related to agriculture.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

O’Reilly and the Gulf News really did a terrific job on the interview, which is definitely worth reading if you have the time.

(Editor’s notes: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein. It’s recommended that you consult with a licensed, qualified professional before making any investment decisions; info added to “Crash Prophets” page)

Source:

O’Reilly, Mick. “The world, according to investor Jim Rogers.” Gulf News. 13 Mar. 2012. (http://gulfnews.com/business/features/the-world-according-to-investor-jim-rogers-1.993414). 19 Mar. 2012.

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