trade wars

Jim Rogers: ‘I Want To Own More Silver But I Want To Own It At A Lower Price Which I Expect’

Tonight I just got finished reading the transcript of a February 9, 2017, interview of well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers by Macro Voices’ Erik Townsend. As usual, the former investing partner of George Soros discussed a number of topics, including:

U.S. Stocks- “Happy days are here” if President Trump carries out those “wonderful things” he said he would (cut taxes, rebuild infrastructure, bring $3 trillion home which U.S. companies have overseas) and avoids trade wars

U.S. Dollar- Despite the correction, “it’s going to go too high, may turn into a bubble, at which point I hope I’m smart enough to sell it because at some point the market forces are going to cause the dollar to come back down because people are going to realize, oh my gosh, this is causing a lot of turmoil, economic problems in the world and it’s damaging the American economy.”

Junk Bonds- “I am shorting junk bonds still”

Precious Metals- “I’m still sitting and watching. I want to own more gold. I want to own more silver but I want to own it at a lower price which I expect.”

“War on Cash”- “Probably we are not going to have as many freedoms as we have now even though we are already losing our freedoms at a significant pace.”

The Singapore-based investor mentioned in a separate interview earlier this month regarding India’s demonetization efforts:

If governments do away with cash, it gives them more power and control.

Townsend’s interview was of Rogers was thorough and interesting, particularly that bit about silver. Head on over to the Macro Voices website here to listen to/read their exchange.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

Source:

Wadhwa, Puneet. “Modi is doing everything he can to get votes: Jim Rogers.” Business Standard. 2 Feb. 2017. (http://www.business-standard.com/budget/article/modi-is-doing-everything-he-can-to-get-votes-jim-rogers-117020200389_1.html). 13 Feb. 2017.

Rogers’ latest book…

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Monday, February 13th, 2017 Asia, Bonds, Bubbles, Business, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Fiscal Policy, Freedom, Government, Infrastructure, Investing, Precious Metals, Spending, Stocks, Trade, War Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘I Want To Own More Silver But I Want To Own It At A Lower Price Which I Expect’

Jim Rogers: ‘Next Period Of Economic Turmoil Is Going To Be Worse Than What We’ve Seen In Our Lifetime’

A couple of days ago I came across an interview with well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers that was published on The Globe and Mail (Canada) website back on January 26. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund answered a number of questions, including one about expressing “some pessimism about the world, particularly the U.S.” Rogers pointed out:

Every four to seven years since the beginning of the Republic, we’ve had economic turmoil. It has now been eight years since we had our last problem. We’re overdue. Mr. Trump has sworn trade wars with Mexico, China and a few others. If that happens, it’s all over. Trade wars have always led to bankruptcies—and often have led to wars, as well…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Rogers added this warning later on in the exchange:

The next period of economic turmoil is going to be worse than what we’ve seen in our lifetime…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

When asked how he prepared financially for such upheaval, the Singapore-based investor replied:

I’m very long the U.S. dollar. It is not a safe haven- the U.S. is the biggest debtor nation in history- but people think it is, so there will be flight into it. It might even turn into a bubble, depending on how bad the turmoil is. Let’s hope I’m smart enough to sell. My plan then is to buy gold

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Greenback, then gold for Mr. Rogers.

Back on December 7, 2016, I blogged about a different interview in which this gameplan was mentioned.

On January 23, I brought up a MarketWatch article featuring Jim Rogers in which markets reporter Sue Chang wrote:

“This is a good time to add dollars,” said Rogers, who believes that the greenback will continue to rise through this year into 2018

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The Chairman of Rogers Holding also talked about where he sees the best investment opportunities now and other interesting subjects in the insightful Globe and Mail piece, which you can read on their website here.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, February 6th, 2017 Asia, Bankruptcy, Bubbles, Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Government, Investing, North America, Precious Metals, Trade, War Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘Next Period Of Economic Turmoil Is Going To Be Worse Than What We’ve Seen In Our Lifetime’

Jim Rogers On U.S. Stocks, Dollar, Markets, And Economy Under Trump

Well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers speculated about the economy under President Trump in a MarketWatch piece published this afternoon. The former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund talked about:

-U.S. stocks- “He very much wants a trade war. And if that happens, sell everything”

-U.S. dollar- “This is a good time to add dollars.” According to reporter Sue Chang, Rogers believes “the greenback will continue to rise through this year into 2018.”

-U.S. financial markets/economy- Chang added:

The one certainty that the markets can bet on, according to Rogers, will be more chaos under Trump, which may coincide with an economic turmoil on a global scale.

“We are overdue for a crisis,” he said, reiterating his steadfast view that debt levels across the world, including in the U.S. and China, continue to swell while interest rates are at historic lows…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that last summer Jim Rogers revealed he was basically short U.S. equities and long the dollar.

There was also this warning from the Singapore-based investor in May:

The world is facing some very complicated and difficult times. Once you become knowledgeable, you’re going to get very worried, which you should, and then you might get prepared, because not all of us are going to survive what’s coming in the next few years. I hope I survive, I hope everybody listening to this survives. But it’s going to be a very, very damaging and difficult time. So be worried. Be prepared

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Head on over to the MarketWatch site here to read the entire article.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; a qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Monday, January 23rd, 2017 Asia, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Interest Rates, Investing, Preparedness, Stocks, Trade, Wall Street, War Comments Off on Jim Rogers On U.S. Stocks, Dollar, Markets, And Economy Under Trump

Marc Faber Warns Of Trump Inheriting ‘Hugely Inflated Asset Markets’

In an interview with CNBC-TV18 (India) earlier today, Swiss-born investment advisor/money manager Marc Faber talked about a potential financial “poisoned chalice” U.S. President-elect Donald Trump might be inheriting. The publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report was asked about what he thought “the biggest risk for global markets in 2017” could be. “Doctor Doom,” as the financial press like to call him, responded with a trade war with China and the following:

When Mr Ronald Reagan became president in 1981, he was elected in November, 1980, asset markets were very depressed and interest rates at very elevated level. The treasury yields in America on the 20-year and 30-year bonds was over 15 percent. So, he inherited a huge tailwind of diminishing inflation, falling interest rates and depressed assets that had a huge upside potential in the 1980’s. Trump, he inherits, and that is the biggest risk, hugely inflated asset markets. The bond markets in the developed countries, as you know, have the lowest yield they ever had in the history of mankind. The bond yields will not go much lower. Now, can the 10-years yield that has gone from 1.3-1.4 percent to 2.5 percent, can it go back to 1.7 percent or 1.5 percent? Yes, possible, but it will not go much below 0 percent.

And number two, when you look at stock markets as a percent of the economy, the stock markets around the world as a percent of the economy are at a very high level, especially in the US. In other countries less so, but in the US they are. Furthermore, the US stock market has significantly, and I repeat, significantly outperformed other markets in the world since 2011 and it leaves it vulnerable to an adjustment. The adjustment may happen with the US not going up a lot. But other markets like India, emerging markets in general, Europe outperforming the US, or it could happen with everything coming down and then the US underperforming, going down more than other markets, which actually would be my view, what will happen. This is the risk…

(Editor’s notes: source CNBC-TV18 transcript and bold added for emphasis)

You can read the entire interview here on the CNBC-TV18 website.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. A qualified professional should be consulted prior to making a financial decision based on material found in this weblog. If this recommended course of action is not pursued, then it must be understood that the decision is the reader’s and the reader’s alone. The creator/Editor of this blog is not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information contained herein.)

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Tuesday, January 3rd, 2017 Asia, Bonds, Crash Prophets, Emerging Markets, Europe, Government, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Stocks, War Comments Off on Marc Faber Warns Of Trump Inheriting ‘Hugely Inflated Asset Markets’

Jim Rogers: ‘Not All Of Us Are Going To Survive What’s Coming In The Next Few Years’

Well-known investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers was recently interviewed by Jay Taylor (editor of J Taylor’s Gold & Technology Stocks newsletter) for the radio show Turning Hard Times into Good Times. It was a phenomenal discussion about a number of finance/investing related topics.

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that the former investing partner of George Soros is forecasting that the U.S. economy will be in recession “sometime in the next year or two.” He’s also seeing signs of the next economic crisis “already happening.” But does Rogers think the winner of this November’s U.S. presidential election will turn the country around? He lamented:

No matter who of the major candidates, no matter who wins Jay, it’s not going to be good for America or good for the world. If Donald Trump does the things he says he going to do, I mean, we’re going to have trade wars with half the world. Well trade wars have always, always, throughout history led to bankruptcy and led to war. I don’t know if he means what he says, I don’t know if he knows he means what he says. But Sanders of course, Sanders will bankrupt us very, very quickly. Hillary Clinton, for god’s sake, she’s a disaster too! The bankruptcy will just be slower, that’s all, if she’s elected. So, I don’t see any prospects for salvation for the U.S. from the present people who are likely to become President of the United States.

Host Jay Taylor asked the world traveler if he knew of any “safe” place where Americans could weather the approaching economic storm. From their exchange:

TAYLOR: Is there any place- you’re in Singapore, I suspect you feel relatively safe there- but is there any place where people might go, people who cherish freedom and the opportunities to use their God-given talents? Is there any place on Earth besides Singapore, or where can we go? Is there any place to go? It used to be the United States. I felt that we were safe here. Is there any place we can go to be safe? I guess the answer is probably there’s no place you can be sure of, right?
ROGERS: Well, there’s no place at the moment that I know of. Even Singapore, as I said before, the port here is the most important port in Asia and if things blow up, everybody needs that port. And Singapore has a lot of Muslim neighbors too that could turn into a problem some day. Where would one go? I think one needs to find an isolated place. I guess maybe some places in South America. Maybe a way to make it through. Some places in Asia. North Korea, I’m very optimistic. North Korea has dramatic changes taking place. It’s where China was in 1981. But if there’s a war, North Korea is probably going to be involved. All of Korea is probably going to be involved too. But you need to find a place Jay that’s not in the mainstream where people don’t really care too much. But even then you have to be careful because you wind end up in a place where the army’s using you as a highway or a transit point. So you have to be careful.

Rogers concluded the interview with this advice to listeners:

I urge people to get knowledgeable from listening to you and other people like you, because the world is facing some very complicated and difficult times. Once you become knowledgeable, you’re going to get very worried, which you should, and then you might get prepared, because not all of us are going to survive what’s coming in the next few years. I hope I survive, I hope everybody listening to this survives. But it’s going to be a very, very damaging and difficult time. So be worried. Be prepared.


“Where is Jim Rogers Investing His Money Now?”
YouTube Video

Jim Rogers’ latest book…

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Friday, May 13th, 2016 Asia, Bankruptcy, Crash Prophets, Freedom, Preparedness, South America, War Comments Off on Jim Rogers: ‘Not All Of Us Are Going To Survive What’s Coming In The Next Few Years’

Has A Currency War Begun?

A currency war.

Like what happened in the 1930s.

There’s growing talk about it these days. From Matt Clinch on the CNBC website this morning:

As countries try to weaken their currencies to boost exports, the risk of a currency war similar to events seen in the 1930s has heightened and policymakers are making sure they are on the winning side, according to Morgan Stanley.

The balance of power now rests with Japan, according to the bank, as Japan’s policy-makers’ more dovish approach looks set to bring the world a step closer to a currency war…

“If a weaker yen is an important pillar of the strategy to make this export-oriented economy more competitive again, it brings into the picture something that was missing from earlier interactions among central banks of the advanced economies- competitive depreciation,” it said in a research note.

“This, in turn, takes us one step closer to a currency war.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Yesterday I mentioned trends forecaster Gerald Celente. The founder and director of The Trends Research Institute appeared on the FOX Business Network’s The Tom Sullivan Show on January 26 and talked a good deal about currency wars, and thinks one is already underway. Celente told viewers:

Pick up the Financial Times, pick up the Wall Street Journal, pick up anything. Read the headlines. Currency Wars, Currency Wars, Currency Wars, Currency Wars. That’s what I’m concerned about. We’re seeing a replay in time. The Crash of 1929, a Great Depression, Currency Wars, Trade Wars, World War. The Panic of ’08. The Great Depression is a depression going on in a lot of places around the world. There’s Currency Wars.

Listen to Weber, the head of the UBS, former president of Deutsche Bank. His words at Davos- there’s a currency war. Listen to Mervyn King, the outgoing head of the Bank of England- there’s a currency war. Listen to Mantega, Brazil- there’s a currency war.

Celente went on to predict trade wars are on the horizon.


“Gerald Celente – Tom Sullivan on Fox Business News – January 26, 2013”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

Clinch, Matt. “Currency Wars Return, 1930s Style: Who Will Lose Out?” CNBC. 7 Feb. 2013. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100441340). 7 Feb. 2013.

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Thursday, February 7th, 2013 Asia, Banking, Currencies, Depression, Monetary Policy, Money Supply, War Comments Off on Has A Currency War Begun?

China Says U.S. Risks Trade War, Continued

Yesterday I talked about how China is warning the United States that it’s risking a trade war by putting pressure on the PRC to allow its currency, the renminbi or yuan, to appreciate. I discussed the claims of scholars who believe that a revaluation of the Chinese currency won’t do much to help the U.S. bring back jobs or address the massive trade imbalance. But this morning, I came across an opposing point of view in Fred Bergsten, director of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics. From a Reuters piece that appeared on CNBC.com:

“The Chinese will scream, but the only times they’ve let their currency rise is when they’re under pressure from the outside, so we should go ahead and do it,” said Fred Bergsten, director of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics and a long-time critic of China’s currency policy.

Bergsten is among the most vocal proponents of increasing the pressure on China, arguing that an undervalued yuan gives it an unfair trade advantage which harms the U.S. economy.

He estimates that a 20 percent rise in the yuan would reduce the U.S. current account deficit by $50 billion to $100 billion. A more extreme move, say 40 percent, would translate into as much as a $200 billion reduction.

About half of that would come from increased exports, mostly to China but also to other countries where China is now the dominant trade player. The other half would come from reduced imports from China.

The United States gains about 6,000 jobs for every $1 billion improvement in the trade balance, so $100 billion would work out to 600,000 jobs, he said. That is more than the anemic U.S. economy has generated in the past six months combined, and would be enough to shave about four-tenths of a point off the 9.1 percent jobless rate.

China acknowledges that a gradual yuan appreciation may be in its best interest, but it has only allowed the currency to rise by about 6.5 percent since June 2010. I’m not sure Beijing will agree to something as significant as a one-off, 20 percent rise in the renminbi. Especially if their perception is that the United States is telling the PRC what to do. If the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011 legislation picks up steam, I won’t be surprised to hear talk along the lines of diversifying out of the dollar or Treasuries coming out of China.

Source:

“What a Stronger Chinese Yuan Means for the US?” Reuters. 5 Oct. 2011. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/44782569). 5 Oct. 2011.

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Wednesday, October 5th, 2011 Asia, Bonds, Currencies, Deficits, Employment, Trade, War Comments Off on China Says U.S. Risks Trade War, Continued

China Says U.S. Risks Trade War

China is warning the United States that it’s risking a trade war. The U.S. Senate voted 79-17 last night to open a week of debate on the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011, to put pressure on China to allow its currency, the renminbi or yuan, to appreciate. U.S. lawmakers claim an undervalued Chinese currency has cost America jobs and has created a massive trade imbalance between the two nations. Reuters’ David Stanway and Aileen Wang wrote this morning:

An angry China warned Washington on Tuesday that passage of a bill aimed at forcing Beijing to let its currency rise could lead to a trade war between the world’s top two economies.

China’s central bank and the ministries of commerce and foreign affairs accused Washington of “politicising” currency issues and putting the global economy at risk after U.S. senators voted on Monday to start a week of debate on the bill.

The response suggested China sees a greater risk from the proposed bill than it has in the past when U.S. lawmakers attempted to put forward similar legislation to speed up the pace of appreciation in the yuan, or renminbi.

Beijing made similar remarks last year after the House of Representatives passed a currency bill that later failed to make any further progress in Congress.

While a strong case can be made that the Chinese currency is indeed undervalued, a number of analysts believe the Democratic-led legislation was being introduced to divert blame for the floundering economy away from Washington D.C., and to increase the odds lawmakers from the Rust Belt and other areas where manufacturing is depressed will get re-elected in 2012. And certain scholars point out that a revaluation of the Chinese currency won’t do much to help the U.S. bring back jobs or address its trade deficit and the trade imbalance. From the University of Pennsylvania’s China Knowledge@Wharton website back on March 31, 2010:

China has pegged its currency to the U.S. dollar since 1994. After 2002, its trade surplus burgeoned, causing a huge global current account surplus. Meanwhile, as China’s major trading partner, the United States suffered from a growing current account deficit. Many U.S. legislators attributed their nation’s deficit to the Chinese government’s currency manipulation to keep the renminbi artificially low. Ever since, a reminbi revaluation has been the center of the trade dispute between China and the United States.

Today, “legislators are trying to make constituents believe that the joblessness [in the U.S.] is caused by the trade deficit, and the trade deficit is the result of China manipulating its currency,” says Charles Freeman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based public policy research institute, and a former assistant U.S. trade representative for China affairs. “However, I see no correlation between joblessness and the trade deficit, as well as the trade deficit and the undervalued renminbi.”

He also says it is unlikely that increasing the value of the renminbi vis-à-vis the dollar will reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. “If you look at the average cost of consumer goods in China and the equivalent wholesale costs of manufacturing goods here in the United States, you would see that the margin between the two is too high,” he notes. “The labor costs are so high in the United States that it would be difficult for the U.S. to regain competitiveness solely through forcing the renminbi to appreciate by another 20%.” In fact, he doubts whether any increase in the value of renminbi will move the production back to the U.S. If Chinese exports to the U.S. were to become more expensive, “the United States would shift its demand to other third party developing countries, such as Mexico,” he says.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Not only would forcing China to revalue its currency might not help on those fronts, but it could actually mean higher prices for U.S. consumers. From the article:

Echoing Freeman’s view is a new article titled, “The RMB: Myths and Tougher-to-Deal-With Realities,” by Pieter Bottelier, a senior adjunct professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, and Uri Dadush, director of the international economics program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington, D.C., think tank. According to Bottelier and Dadush, the immediate effect of a renminbi appreciation would be an increase in prices for U.S. consumers. “A 25% revaluation of the renminbi, which some economists have said is needed, would — if not offset by a reduction in China’s prices — add $75 billion to the U.S. import bill, since the United States imports three times as much from China as it exports there,” they wrote. That rise in costs will most likely be passed on to the consumer. As they see it, a revaluation of the renminbi on its own would do little to redress global imbalances, and could initially lead to a wider U.S.-China trade deficit.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Something else that needs to be considered is China’s massive holdings of U.S. debt. From Reuters’ Emily Flitter back on September 22:

China’s vast Treasury holdings, which totaled $1.174 trillion in July according to Treasury data, have been a major source of anxiety among policymakers and some Wall Street analysts who thought they gave China too much power over the United States, politically and economically.

China has been known to evoke the specter of massive Treasury selling in political disputes. It could do so again as the currency manipulation issue heats up…

If China were to dump Treasuries, that would not bode well for the greenback. And once again, you’re talking about higher costs for U.S. consumers as many consumer goods are imported. A weaker dollar equals higher prices for imported goods.

From what I’ve read this morning, analysts at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere don’t think this legislation will be passed into law. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from observing and actually working in Congress, it’s that Washington D.C. can be quite unpredictable. Especially these days when their backs are up against the wall.

Sources:

Stanway, David and Wang, Aileen. “WRAPUP 2-China warns of trade war if U.S. bill passes.” Reuters. 4 Oct. 2011. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/04/usa-china-idUSL3E7L40IA20111004). 4 Oct. 2011.

“An RMB Revaluation: Could It Reduce Global Trade Imbalances?” China Knowledge@Wharton. 31 Mar. 2010. (http://www.knowledgeatwharton.com.cn/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&articleID=2200&languageid=1). 4 Oct. 2011.

Flitter, Emily. “Time for China to sell U.S. debt?” Reuters. 22 Sep. 2011. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/22/us-markets-bonds-outlook-idUSTRE78K6KS20110922). 4 Oct. 2011.

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Tuesday, October 4th, 2011 Asia, Bonds, Currencies, Debt Crisis, Deficits, Employment, Government, Trade, War Comments Off on China Says U.S. Risks Trade War
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