U.S. dollar

Peter Schiff’s Investment Advice Before The Fed Reverses, Increases QE

While I’m jonesing for a new entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, I did watch Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on CNBC’s Closing Bell on January 28. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis, told viewers the U.S. economy is actually doing “lousy” and that he thinks the Federal Reserve will reverse course on quantitative easing this year, increasing the levels of “stimulus.” When asked what one should do with their money, Schiff advised:

You should be buying gold. You should be buying mining stocks. You should be investing abroad. You should be getting out of the U.S. dollar. Because ultimately, that’s going to be the big casualty here. When the Fed surprises everybody and does more QE, and people realize the box that we’re in- that it’s QE Infinity, that there is no exit strategy, that exit is impossible, that it’s ever larger doses of this monetary heroin- the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar. You know, an economy that lives by QE dies by QE. We better be prepared for that.

“Yellen Will Reverse Taper and Increase QE”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘Bernanke Bubble’ Will Pop Early In Janet Yellen’s Term, Ringing In Dollar Collapse

Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff added a new entry Friday on his YouTube video blog The Schiff Report. Schiff, who correctly-predicted the U.S. housing bubble’s pop and 2008 economic crisis, warned viewers of a collapse in the U.S. dollar instigated by another bubble deflating. From Friday:

What happened two years into the Bernanke term is Alan Greenspan’s bubble blew up. Now, of course, Ben Bernanke, he was part of it, because he was at the Fed for part of Alan Greenspan’s tenure, and so he went along with the bad policies. But the “Greenspan bubble” blew up on Ben Bernanke. The same thing is going to happen again because the “Bernanke bubble” is bigger than the “Greenspan bubble.” The monetary policies pursued by Bernanke were far more reckless than the ones pursued by Greenspan. And therefore the bubble is much bigger. And therefore the damage to the economy when it pops will be much bigger. So just like it hit the fan when Bernanke was at the Fed, it’s going to do the same thing on Janet Yellen’s watch. We’re going to have another crisis early in the Yellen term that will be bigger than the crisis that we had early in the Bernanke term, and Wall Street and the government are equally unprepared. They will be equally blindsided. In fact, I think they will be blind-sided even more. Because if you go back to the Greenspan period, there were more doubters, there were more people like me back in 2004, 5, 6, 7, who were critical of Alan Greenspan and who were expressing that criticism or that skepticism by buying gold and doing various things to hedge themselves against inflation. There’s not that many of us left. There were some critics of Ben Bernanke early on, and as gold up to 1,900. Yes, critics were buying gold and anticipating problems in inflation. No more. Most of those voices have been silenced. In the last year or so, the doubters have become believers. Everyone is cheerleading Bernanke and welcoming Janet Yellen into the Fed anticipating nothing but sunny skies ahead. Nobody really understands that all of the problems that they believed Ben Bernanke solved, he simply exacerbated. The U.S. economy is in worse shape than it was when the financial crisis started. We have bigger problems, and therefore the next financial crisis will be worse. The thing that is going to be different about the next crisis, is I believe it will be a currency crisis…

Instead of being the end of the dollar’s decline, the next crisis will be the beginning of the dollar’s collapse. And I will anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken until that crisis starts. Because as 2014 unfolds, we’re going to get more data like the December jobs data that is going to disappoint and call into question the validity of this recovery, which I believe is an illusion, and not a reality.

“An Imaginary Recovery Does Not Create Real Jobs”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Bullish On Emerging Market Stocks, Gold

Peter Schiff appeared on the Fox Business Network show Markets Now on December 26. The CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital discussed the Federal Reserve and its announced “tapering” of its $85 billion bond-buying program. Schiff, like fellow “crash prophets” Marc Faber and Jim Rogers, believes the U.S. central bank will eventually reverse course on cutting back stimulus. He told viewers:

The Fed, I don’t believe, is going to carry out the taper talk. Maybe it will begin it, but it’s certainly not going to follow through. And I think it will reverse course, and ultimately be buying a lot more mortgages and Treasuries each month than it’s doing right now. And that’s because without the support of the Fed, long-term interest rates are heading a lot higher, and our economy is too broke to afford it. The highest rate we can really afford is zero at this point. And the markets haven’t figured this out yet- that we have a phony recovery. It’s a bubble masquerading as a recovery.

When asked where people should be putting their money then, the CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals recommended:

I’m not bearish on stocks. I’m bearing on the U.S. dollar. I’m bearish on paper. People just assume I’m all gloom and doom. So, I think the stock market’s going down. If the Fed did the right thing for the economy, and let interest rates go up, the stock market would come crashing down. But, I don’t believe the Fed is going to do the right thing. They’re going to keep doing the wrong thing. This bubble is too big to pop. The Fed knows it. So they’re going to keep on supplying air. So yes, stocks are going to go up, but the dollar is going to go down a lot more in real terms. And yes, gold is going to go up. If you really want to invest in the stock market, look around the world. There are much better opportunities in foreign stocks, in the emerging markets, that hasn’t been the place to be in 2013, but it probably will be the place to be in 2014 and going forward.

“The Fed knows this bubble is too Big to Pop”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff Predicts Effect On Consumers When Bond, Stock, And Real Estate Bubbles Pop

Anyone catch Euro Pacific Capital’s CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on FOX Business Network’s The Willis Report back on November 27?

I just saw it for the first time the other day. Host Gerri Willis began the segment by talking about recent upbeat economic reports, to which Schiff replied:

You know, Alan Greenspan actually came out today and proclaimed that there was no bubble in the stock market. And he ought to know, right? Because he’s 0 for 2 when it comes to spotting bubbles. I think it’s 3 strikes and he’s out.

Ouch. A close second for my earlier “Quote For The Week” post.

The “crash prophet” added:

Because not only is there a bubble in the stock market. But the Fed has managed to make bubbles in the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market simultaneously. That’s a lot of bubbles for the Fed to juggle.

Later on in the segment, Schiff, who correctly predicted the recent housing market crash and 2008 economic crisis, told Willis the U.S. dollar “is eventually going to get hit hard.” The host asked:

What will I feel as a consumer?

Schiff answered:

When the Fed is ultimately forced to raise interest rates- yes, we’ll have a big drop in the stock market, a big drop in the real estate market, we’ll be back in a severe recession, and it’s going to be tough. Prices are also going to go up for consumer goods, because a weak dollar means consumer goods are more expensive, But ultimately if the Fed has to protect the weak dollar with rate hikes, then your assets go down in value. But the price of everything you need to buy goes up.

Not a pretty scenario at all for American consumers if Schiff is correct once again.

“Holding the Dollar Could be Riskier Than Stocks”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: If Fed Starts Tapering, U.S. Will Be Back In Recession

Time to talk money this morning. Only one “crash prophet” had anything notable to say in the past couple of days. The CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell last Friday. Schiff, who is credited with predicting the U.S. housing bust and economic crisis that reared its ugly head late in 2008, told viewers:

If the Fed begins to taper- which I don’t think it’s going to do- we’ll be back in recession. It’s not going to be good for stocks. The whole rally is based on QE. That’s why the Fed’s going to keep the monetary spigots open. Because they want to keep the phony recovery, and they want to keep inflating these asset bubbles in the stock market and in the real estate market. But the problem for the market is, the more the Fed succeeds in pushing up the market now with QE, the further it’s going to fall once the QE stops. Because it has to end eventually, otherwise the dollar is going to collapse, and it’s not going to matter what your stock portfolio is worth, because you’re not going to be able to buy anything.

When asked about the Fed not planning to start tapering until the economy is fundamentally better, Schiff replied:

It will never get better fundamentally until they stop QE. QE is preventing the economy from fundamentally recovering from the damage. So the Fed is going to keep doing it. Again, it’s like a drug. The QE keeps us high, but if we lose the drug then we go through withdrawal. We’re never going to have a genuine recovery until the Fed lets us have a real recession. So when they take away the QE, then we’re going to go right back into recession. It’s even going to be bigger than the one in ’08 and ’09, because a lot of damage has been done structurally to our economy, because the Fed has interfered with the recovery with all the QE.

“Fed Taper Will Trigger Recession”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: ‘An Economy That Lives By QE Dies By QE’

“The Federal Reserve decided Wednesday to hold monetary policy steady, saying that conditions remained too weak to pull back from its bond-buying program.

By a vote of 9 to 1, the Fed decided to maintain the pace of its $85 billion-per-month asset purchase plan.”

-MarketWatch.com, October 30, 2013

Another Federal Open Market Committee meeting has come and gone, and with it, the decision by the U.S. central bank to reduce, or “taper,” its $85 billion-per-month stimulus program.

Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, appeared on Canada’s only all-business and financial news television channel BNN last Friday, and correctly-predicted once again that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t start tapering its quantitative easing just yet. Schiff told Business News Network viewers:

My view has been consistent since the beginning. I said when the Fed first launched QE1 that it was a mistake. That they had checked into the equivalent of the monetary roach motel. That they had no exit strategy. That QE would continue indefinitely. That we would have increasing doses of this monetary heroin. And, eventually it’s going to come to an end. Not because the Fed tapers. The Fed’s actually going to do the opposite of tapering- they’re going to up the dosage. It’s going to end when there’s a currency crisis. When the dollar collapses, and then that morphs into a sovereign debt crisis. That’s going to force the Fed’s hand. But until then, it’s just going to pretend that there’s an exit. It’s going to pretend that there’s tapering. But it can’t do it, because it can’t remove the QE without removing the recovery and putting the economy back into a worse recession than before the Fed began this experiment.

When asked about the possibility of a “beginning to the reduction of bond purchases,” Schiff replied:

No. Because when they even talked about it last time- when the Fed talked about the possibility of maybe reducing QE- interest rates went way up, and that threatened to unravel the housing recovery, the bull market in stocks, and so the Fed had to back off. The Fed is saying that it’s only going to take away the punch bowl if the party keeps going. But the party’s going to stop if it takes away the punch bowl. That is the predicament that it’s in. You know, an economy that lives by QE dies by QE.

Schiff talked of bubbles in housing and stocks, and warned viewers:

But ultimately, those bubbles are going to burst. If the Fed eventually does the right thing, and lets interest rates rise, we’ll have a worse financial crisis than 2008. If it does the wrong thing, and doesn’t let interest rates rise, but keeps printing money instead, then we’re going to have runaway inflation and a much bigger financial disaster than what would happen if the Fed just let rates rise.

“Fed Will Do The Opposite Of Tapering- And Print More Money!”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page. I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Peter Schiff: U.S. Will Become Either Greece Or Weimar Germany

“It’s hard to imagine what the country will look like when the dollar crashes. But one thing is certain; it will bear little resemblance to the America we know today.”

-Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, in an interview posted on The Daily Caller website, October 17, 2013

Yesterday we heard from two “crash prophets”- Dr. Marc Faber and Jim Rogers on finance and investing. Today, I want to bring up a third “prophet”- Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff- and talk about an interview he just did with Faith Braverman over at The Daily Caller website. Posted last Thursday, Braverman asked Schiff- who correctly predicted the U.S. housing crash and “Panic of ’08″- about what Americans should be on the lookout for as the real U.S. financial crash draws closer. Schiff advised:

You gotta follow the foreign exchange market, the value of the dollar vs. foreign currencies. The Federal Reserve keeps buying bonds to keep interest rates from rising. We have no choice but to default if creditors want their money back. If interest rates go up, we can’t afford that. That is why the Fed feels that it has to keep interest rates down at all costs. So the Federal Reserve prints more money to buy up bonds. That puts pressure on the dollar. Foreign central banks than buy those dollars to prevent their currencies form rising, which imposes costs on their own population, as they are forced to absorb our inflation.

There will be big spikes in commodity prices, like energy and food. Ultimately, we will be forced to make even bigger cuts than the ones we would have made now had the debt ceiling not been raised. Then we’ll be Greece, essentially. If we refuse, and keep spending, and the Fed prints even more money to buy the bonds no one else will buy, we’ll destroy the dollar and then we’ll be Weimar Germany. When the dollar collapses, what does that mean? Hyperinflation means you will have nothing. Your life savings will be worth nothing. We’re celebrating solving the debt ceiling, but we’ve only kicked the can down the road and removed the barrier between us and fiscal responsibility.

Later on in the exchange, the former U.S. Senate candidate suggested Americans should “get gold, silver, foreign assets, and buy up things that will have value after the dollar crashes.”

Braverman did a nice job on this interview, which can be read in its entirety on The Daily Caller website here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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On TV: Doomsday Preppers ‘The Gates of Hell’ Review

It took a while, but I finally got around to watching season 3, episode 2, of Doomsday Preppers- “The Gates of Hell.” From the National Geographic Channel website:

An economic collapse could mean total chaos for the U.S. — looting, riots and civil unrest are top concerns. In Washington state, Steve works with a stern hand to prep his family for the potential threat. South Carolinian David Appleton is a comedian, but the idea of a devastating earthquake is no joke to him. His job doesn’t always pay the bills, so David must Dumpster dive to find supplies to make a DIY camouflage net to hide his preps.

Once again, there was more to the episode that aired last week than just the segments on Steve H. and David Appleton. The show also introduced Suzanne Strisower living out in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains.

My thoughts about “The Gates of Hell”:

Part 1: The heavily-defended bug-out location

Season 3, episode 2, of Doomsday Preppers opened with a segment about “Steve H.,” who told viewers:

I’m preparing my family for the imminent collapse of the United States economy.

According to the show:

Steve H. a contractor in Washington state, fears that economic collapse will encourage widespread riots and looting, and that his home, in an easily-accessible neighborhood, could become a target.

While Steve, his wife Kim, and sons Nick and Steven James work on their preps every week, most of their efforts are directed towards their bug-out location, a cabin 50 miles away in the mountains and where the family heads to on weekends.

The BOL and the preparations that have gone into constructing it are impressive, not the least of which is a concrete bunker that houses supplies.

Steve, along with friends Nolan and Dylan, have also put a lot of thought and effort into making the cabin highly-defensible. The prepper group is heavily-armed, utilizing even binary explosives to protect against intruders making their way up the only road to the cabin.

For those readers not familiar with binary explosives, according to the BATFE website:

Binary explosives are pre-packaged products consisting of two separate components, usually an oxidizer like ammonium nitrate and a fuel such as aluminum or another metal.

The remainder of the segment showed what an attack on the mountain hideaway (not really, as it looks to be right off a paved road) might look like. Those into big guns (.50 caliber) and even bigger explosions (those binary explosives were put into action) probably enjoyed this part a lot. I know I did.

Two things stood out in this segment for me. First, I’ve heard/read concerns about youngsters participating in preparedness activities (usually, it relates to firearms). So has Steve, who has little man Steven James involved in the family’s prepping. Dad had this to say:

My mother says that our prepping is a negative influence on our 8-year-old son. But I say it’s a positive influence on my son. Reality is what reality is. And the sooner that we face reality, the sooner that we’re going to be able to do something about it. I don’t want to lose anybody in our family. I don’t people in my family to be hungry. I don’t want people in my family to be discomforted or in pain. And so I’m taking these steps beforehand, to see to it that that doesn’t happen to us.

Second, Practical Preppers awarded Steve and the group 79 points out of 100 points for their efforts. Instead of disputing the assessment- which happens quite a bit- Steve was incredibly open-minded about the whole thing. Steve confided with viewers:

I think the assessment is spot on. Especially about the security. There’s a lot of things that we can do that would be better. And I think that I’m going to seek some training.

Good for him.

Part 2: The dumpster-diving prepper

In the second segment, viewers met David Appleton, a professional comedian out of Charleston, South Carolina. Appleton explained:

I’m actually preparing for a catastrophic earthquake to hit Charleston, South Carolina.

“Apples,” as David is known on the comedy circuit, added:

I’m prepping for an earthquake because it’s happened in the past.

The show went on to confirm that it has- and in a big way.

It’s revealed David and his wife, Lauren, have 72 hours of preps set aside at their home, then they plan on bugging out in the event of a longer-term emergency.

Appleton is a also a self-admitted dumpster-diver. And using his scavenging skills, he’s been able to acquire materials that allow him to construct items like a multi-purpose rickshaw made out of PVC pipes. During the show, he demonstrated how to make camouflage netting out of what looked to be a discarded painter’s drop cloth, wire mesh, and various cans of spray paint.

The finished product looked like it might be pretty functional for its intended use.

Those who desire camouflage for their bug-out vehicles (especially trucks) but who don’t want to spend much money for it- take note.

Not all of the couple’s preps are scavenged. He’s acquired an old Army truck for a BOV and an old pontoon boat from his parents (shown with outboard engine). In the event David and Lauren ever have to get off the island where they live (only three earthquake-vulnerable bridges connect them to and from the mainland), they plan on trailering the boat and driving it down to the waterfront to escape. David was even shown fabricating and installing a rain catchment system onto the boat should they need to collect fresh water while on the “high seas.”

Part 3: Lifestyle prepping

In the final segment of “The Gates of Hell,” viewers were introduced to yet another pacifist from California’s Sierra Nevada Mountains- Suzanne Strisower- and her partner Dave. The couple reside on 30 acres there.

Strisower told viewers:

When the economy collapses, I’ll barter everything I have to survive and thrive.

She added:

The United States is not going to be the global standard for the currency anymore. I think we’re going for sure have some kind of currency collapse, where money is not going to be worth what it used to be worth. And I think it’s going to get worse. I tell everybody- listen, you need to have a plan. You need to know what you’re going to do if something comes down. So, it’s about mindfulness. It’s about preparation. It’s not about fear. That’s why I really advocate for people to be lifestyle preppers- not doomsday preppers.

The couple plans to survive TEOTWAWKI through bartering. From the show:

Suzanne’s lifestyle plan for an economic collapse is to turn her mountain retreat into a giant doomsday swap meet. All her resources will be alternate currency she’ll use to barter and trade for whatever she needs.

Strisower is a gifted barterer. She is shown putting this skill to work in order to acquire a dehydrator.

Recognizing the need for being able to protect themselves, the pacifist was shown visiting Surplus City, a local military surplus store, and talking to Robert Pratt there about what might best-suit them. Since lethal weapons are out of the question, Pratt suggested a stun gun. Strisower didn’t like the fact that it would require her to get close to an attacker to be able to use it.

Pratt came up with a different option for her- a paintball gun.

Used correctly, paintball guns can inflict a lot of pain on an aggressor some distance out. Strisower asked Pratt to come up to the couple’s place to demonstrate the gun, she tried it out, and was subsequently impressed.

Needless to say, viewers shouldn’t have been surprised when Practical Preppers only awarded her 3 out of a possible 20 points in the “Security” category of the assessment. Oh well. As Pratt said earlier in the segment:

I get it. You don’t want to have to hurt somebody. You don’t want to have to do it. But to me, you have to be willing to accept it. Willing to go with the fact that- I might have to.

Overall, a good episode.

For more information about Doomsday Preppers, visit the show’s web page on the National Geographic Channel site here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Peter Schiff Predicts Fed’s Future Moves

“FOMC Minutes Show Broad Support for Tapering Timeline”
-Bloomberg.com, August 21, 2013

“Fed minutes: Policymakers favor tapering this year”
-USA TODAY website, August 21, 2013

“Fed message to markets: Don’t fear the taper”
-CNBC.com, August 21, 2013

The ongoing discussion about when the Federal Reserve is going to “taper” its monthly purchases of $85 billion worth of long-term bonds was once again the focus of the financial news media yesterday when minutes of the July 30-31 Fed meeting were released.

Personally, I think it’s all talk. If there is going to be any “tapering” of this stimulus by Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve, it surely won’t be meaningful, or else it will expose and bring down the financial “house of cards” that is the U.S. economy and larger financial system in 2013.

Like my old grad school classmate and friend Allison used to say…

Yada, yada, yada.

That pretty much sums up what’s coming out of Fed officials’ mouths these days.

While there are plenty of people out there who think the economy is oh-so-peachy-keen right now (“The US population is excited about the economy and that Obama has saved us from the Capitalist failures of Bush. We are truly in a golden age that will last for a long time…”- recent CNBC.com comment), there’s no shortage of others who think like I do and are concerned about the nation’s financial well-being going forward in light of all the trillions upon trillions of dollars of debt we’ve amassed.

Peter Schiff is one of those individuals, and here’s what the CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital had to say in his latest installment of The Schiff Report video blog on YouTube:

I know what the Fed’s going to do. They’re going to do the only thing they know how to do- they’re going to print money. They’re going to monetize debt, because this economy is going to implode. The phony recovery that they created, is completely dependent on the stimulus that they’re now threatening to withdraw. And again, all they’re talking about doing is easing off the gas. They’re not even talking about stepping on the break, which is something they’re going to have to do. But they’re not even talking that. They’re just talking about slightly easing up on the gas pedal. But you know what? That’s more than we can take. We are so addicted- this economy is so dependent- not just on QE, but on ever larger doses of QE. Just like any other drug addict, you build up a tolerance, you can’t keep getting the same high on the same amount of the drug. You need more and more drugs to stay high. And in our case, we need more and more drugs, and we can’t even get as high as we used to be. That’s how big the tolerance is- how much the effects are wearing off. And then eventually, it’s not going to work at all. It’s not going to matter. Because the Fed’s going to print, and interest rates are going to rise anyway, because the bonds are going to tank. The dollar is going to tank. And then gold’s going to really take off.

“Markets Confirms the ‘Recovery’ is Tapering Before the Fed”
YouTube Video

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Jim Rogers Predicts U.S. Dollar Calamity By ‘End Of Decade’

Well-known investor Jim Rogers was interviewed by Lansing, Michigan radio station 1320 WILS AM on August 1. The former investing partner of George Soros talked about a number of money-related topics, including his currency holdings and what he thinks the prospects are for the U.S. dollar. From the interview:

While I have very little confidence in the future of the U.S. dollar, I actually own it at the moment, just because I expect more currency turmoil coming in the next couple of years. We’re going to have a lot more problems in financial markets. And, rightly or wrongly, when people see turmoil and chaos, they rush to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. Well, it’s not a safe haven, but I have more money in the U.S. dollar than I’ve had in a long time because I’m worried about other currencies. I own a few Russian rubles because I own some investments in Russia, but I don’t own them by themselves. I do own the Chinese currency. I’m optimistic about the Chinese currency longer-term.

The CEO of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests noted that for the first time in recorded history, all major governments and central banks are printing huge amounts of money, purposely debasing fiat currency and creating what he sees is a “big problem for all of us.”

Rogers added this warning about the greenback later in the exchange:

I would suspect that by the end of this decade- if not before or maybe shortly after- people are just going to stop- international creditors- are just going to stop accepting U.S. dollars and stop lending us money. I would.

America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. And it’s getting worse every month, every year. And eventually, people just say, “Enough is enough.” At least, that’s what happened throughout history. Eventually people have always just said, “We’re not going to lend you any more money.”

An insightful interview, which can be accessed via NumisMaster.com here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Ron Paul: ‘There’s Pretty Good Evidence Right Now There’s A Shortage Of Physical Gold’

Because I’ve been so busy with the new pad in the Chicago suburbs, I haven’t paid as much attention to the financial markets recently as I would have liked to.

Before my late May move, a number of financial/investing “experts” were pretty adamant about gold rapidly crashing and burning. I remember reading a few predictions of the precious metal plummeting below the $1,000 per ounce level.

And now that I’m picking up steam again with my research and blogging? Gold must surely have tanked by now.

On the day my girlfriend and I closed on our house, the London P.M. gold spot price was $1,382.50. Today, almost two months later, gold stands at $1,326.00.

So much for the yellow metal’s rapid demise.

Catching up on gold’s recent activity, I noticed that retired U.S. Representative Ron Paul appeared on the CNBC show Futures Now this past Tuesday. The production is hosted by CNBC reporter Jackie DeAngelis.

Readers may remember Ms. DeAngelis from her recent attempt to call out Peter Schiff over his gold price forecasts.

The three-time U.S. presidential had a few choice words to say about gold:

Gold is a real good, long-term identifier on the value of a currency and the value of our dollar. I mean, if you look at 100 years it’s very easy. $20 up to $1,800 dollars. Now it’s $1,300 and we’re printing money faster than ever. And there’s pretty good evidence right now there’s a shortage of physical gold. The physical gold margin has always been strong. And that’s going to continue. This is going to be sorted out. And after these corrections sometimes you see an explosion. Even though I’m not a technician on gold, I suspect that could happen. I think long-term you can expect governments not to change. We’re going to see more Detroits. Eventually, the government of the United States will be somewhat similar to Detroit because people will give up their confidence in us, give up confidence in the dollar, and eventually they’ll give up confidence on our military. And then you are going to see some real, real changes in this system which has been built on a fiat dollar for the last 40 years.

“Ron Paul: Why Detroit bankruptcy is good for gold”
CNBC Video

On a side note, CNBC entitled this video “Ron Paul: Why Detroit bankruptcy is good for gold”

Is it me, or did I miss where Ron Paul suggested how the Detroit bankruptcy is good for gold?

Just thought I’d ask.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Jim Rogers: Chinese Yuan Could Appreciate 500 Percent In Next 20 To 30 Years

Speaking of the well-known investor and seemingly everything else Jim Rogers, he’s in the financial news these days for reiterating his bullishness of the Chinese renminbi, or yuan, as it’s more commonly called around these parts. Sophie Song reported on the International Business Times website late last week:

Famed investor and co-founder of the Quantum Fund, Jim Rogers said in Shanghai that he expects renminbi, China’s currency, to appreciate 300, 400 or even 500 percent in the next 20 to 30 years, stunning and prompting a debate in the forex industry.

Rogers also indicated that the yuan may replace the dollar one day, Daily Economic News, a Chinese financial and economic news portal, reported.

“If anyone wants to sell renminbi, I’d be willing to buy,” Rogers said. Compared to the yuan’s value in 2005, Rogers expects it to appreciate by as much as 500 percent in the future.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

The Singapore-based investor has been bullish on the Chinese currency for a number of years now. Steven C. Johnson wrote on the Reuters website back on April 10, 2007:

China’s yuan has further to climb against the dollar and could rise by up to 500 percent over the next 20 years, U.S. fund manager Jim Rogers said Tuesday at the Reuters Hedge Funds and Private Equity Summit.

Rogers, who co-founded Quantum hedge fund with billionaire investor George Soros in the 1970s, urged investors to hold the yuan and said he is “extremely bearish” on the U.S. dollar.

“It’s going to go a lot higher,” he said, adding he holds yuan in two Chinese bank accounts.

I think it would be interesting to find out how Americans can own the Chinese renminbi. Keep an eye out for a follow-up post.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)


Song, Sophie. “China’s Currency Could Appreciate 500% In Next Three Decades, Investor Jim Rogers Says.” International Business Times. 6 June 2013. (http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-currency-could-appreciate-500-next-three-decades-investor-jim-rogers-says-1294517#). 14 June 2013.

Johnson, Steven C. “Jim Rogers says China’s yuan headed higher.” Reuters. 10 Apr. 2007. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/04/11/us-funds-summit-yuan-idUSN1043707420070411). 13 June 2013.

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Thursday, June 13th, 2013 Asia, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Investing No Comments

Former High-Ranking Treasury Official: Fed Ordered Attack On Gold

Speaking of manipulating the price of gold, there’s been a good deal of suspicion that the yellow metal has come under deliberate attack.

It doesn’t come as a surprise to me that some might think this, considering the following:

• A number of Federal Reserve officials keep blabbing on about how the central bank might dial back quantitative easing soon, helping to shore up the U.S. dollar when they do this while subsequently detracting from gold’s allure
• The seemingly-reformed financial news media (accused of being stock market cheerleaders in the 90s and early 2000s) has bared their true colors and have savaged gold with a barrage of negative press. Of course they fail to mention that “gold is still up by more than 400 percent from the lows in 1999, whereas the S&P is barely up 2 percent from their highs in 2000,” as Marc Faber reminded Yahoo! Finance viewers this morning.
• Then there’s that huge disconnect between the “paper” gold market- where traders are supposedly running for the hills- and the “physical” gold market, where buyers are paying significant premiums over spot to acquire tangible gold and dealers are describing current demand as being a buying frenzy, not seeing anything like this in years- even decades.

Enter Paul Craig Roberts, chairman of the Florida-based Institute for Political Economy. Roberts is a former associate editor and columnist for the Wall Street Journal who President Reagan appointed as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy.

Roberts thinks the Federal Reserve has been orchestrating an attack on gold.

He wrote on the Institute’s website this past Saturday:

On Friday, April 12, 2013, short sales of gold hit the New York market in an amount estimated to have been somewhere between 124 and 400 tons of gold. This enormous and unprecedented sale implies an illegal conspiracy of sellers intent on rigging the market or action by the Federal Reserve through its agents, the BTBF that are the bullion banks.

The enormous sales of naked shorts drove down the gold price, triggering stop-loss orders and margin calls. The attack continued on Monday, April 15, and has continued since.

Before going further, note that there are position limits imposed on the number of contracts that traders can sell at one time. The 124 tons figure would have required 14 traders with no open interest on the exchange to sell all together in the same few minutes 40,000 futures contracts. The likelihood of so many traders deciding to short at the same moment at the maximum permitted is not believable. This was an attack ordered by the Federal Reserve, which is why there is no investigation of the illegality.

Note also that no seller that wanted out of a position would give himself a low price by dumping an enormous amount all at once unless the goal was not profit but to smash the bullion price.

Since the April 12-15 attack on the gold price, subsequent attacks have occurred at 2pm Hong Kong time and 2 am New York time. At this time activity is light, waiting on London to begin operating. As William S.Kaye has observed, no entity concerned about profits would choose this time to sell 20,000 to 30,000 futures contracts, but this is what has been happening.

Who can be unconcerned with losing money in this way? Only a central bank that can print it.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Roberts isn’t the only one accusing the Fed of ordering an attack on gold. Back on April 29 I started off a post with the following April 17 statement from Ambrose Evans-Prtichard, international business editor over at The Telegraph (UK):

My view is that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan ‘caused’ the gold crash. The rest is noise…

The world is still in a contained depression. Sliding commodities tell us global money is if anything too tight. ‘There is a threat of deflation almost everywhere. A lot of central banks will have to follow the Bank of Japan, whatever they say now,’ said Lars Christensen form Danske Bank.

The era of money printing is young yet. Gold will have its day again.

You can read the entire Roberts’ piece on the Institute for Political Economy’s website here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas Cut Gold Price Forecasts

Some major global financial institutions aren’t very bullish on gold these days. First, there’s the German banking and financial services company Deutsche Bank. According to a Reuters piece picked up on The Economic Times (India) website earlier today:

Deutsche Bank cut its forecast for gold prices in 2013, 2014 and 2015 on Friday, citing the sharp price correction in gold last month and upgrades to its US dollar outlook.

The bank lowered its 2013 gold outlook 6 percent to $1,533 from $1,637. It downgraded its 2014 gold outlook by 17 percent to $1,500 and its 2015 gold outlook by 25 percent to $1,450.

On November 14, 2012, I blogged:

Back in December of last year, Deutsche Bank predicted that gold prices would hit $2,000 an ounce in the second half of 2012.

The highest London P.M. gold spot price recorded last year turned out to be only $1,791.75.

The third largest bank in the world, BNP Paribas, isn’t too hot about precious metals’ prospects in the near-term either. Here’s what the Dow Jones Newswires had to say about the Paris-headquartered banking group and gold on the FOX Business website Thursday:

BNP Paribas Friday cut its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, but said it expects the metal to trade back above $1,600/oz in six months.

The bank now sees gold averaging $1,580 a troy ounce this year, down 5% on its previous forecast. In 2014, it expects gold to average $1,520/oz, also down 5% on its earlier outlook.

In my opinion, the fundamentals supporting higher gold prices appear intact.

Which they have for quite some time now.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)


“Deutsche Bank cuts 2013 outlook for gold prices.” Reuters. 10 May 2013. (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/deutsche-bank-cuts-2013-outlook-for-gold-prices/articleshow/19989072.cms). 10 May 2013.

“BNP Paribas Cuts Gold Outlook, But Sees $1,600/oz Retaken in 6 Months.” Dow Jones Newswires. 10 May 2013. (http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/05/10/bnp-paribas-cuts-gold-outlook-but-sees-1600oz-retaken-in-6-months/). 10 May 2013.

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Peter Schiff: ‘Gold Bears Are Making Much Ado About Nothing’

There’s been quite a bit of talk these past couple of years about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy due to an economic recovery finally arriving that I’m going to have to agree with “crash prophet” and Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on this.

The Fed is bluffing.

Unless Fed officials are now starting to worry that growing their balance sheet is not in their best interest anymore.

Schiff, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis, wrote in the March issue of his Gold Letter that was published Friday:

Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: “We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off.” What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed’s unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.

Growing rumors last month of a potential “tightening” of monetary policy – seemingly confirmed by the Fed minutes released on Feb. 20th – have spooked the precious metals markets, leading to a 5.8% correction in gold and 10.2% in silver.

However, these fears are preposterous on two counts…

You can read the entire article (“The Fed’s Tightening Pipe Dream”) on the Euro Pacific Precious Metals website here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)

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Christopher E. Hill, Editor
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