U.S. dollar
Former High-Ranking Treasury Official: Fed Ordered Attack On Gold
Speaking of manipulating the price of gold, there’s been a good deal of suspicion that the yellow metal has come under deliberate attack.
It doesn’t come as a surprise to me that some might think this, considering the following:
• A number of Federal Reserve officials keep blabbing on about how the central bank might dial back quantitative easing soon, helping to shore up the U.S. dollar when they do this while subsequently detracting from gold’s allure
• The seemingly-reformed financial news media (accused of being stock market cheerleaders in the 90s and early 2000s) has bared their true colors and have savaged gold with a barrage of negative press. Of course they fail to mention that “gold is still up by more than 400 percent from the lows in 1999, whereas the S&P is barely up 2 percent from their highs in 2000,” as Marc Faber reminded Yahoo! Finance viewers this morning.
• Then there’s that huge disconnect between the “paper” gold market- where traders are supposedly running for the hills- and the “physical” gold market, where buyers are paying significant premiums over spot to acquire tangible gold and dealers are describing current demand as being a buying frenzy, not seeing anything like this in years- even decades.
Enter Paul Craig Roberts, chairman of the Florida-based Institute for Political Economy. Roberts is a former associate editor and columnist for the Wall Street Journal who President Reagan appointed as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy.
Roberts thinks the Federal Reserve has been orchestrating an attack on gold.
He wrote on the Institute’s website this past Saturday:
On Friday, April 12, 2013, short sales of gold hit the New York market in an amount estimated to have been somewhere between 124 and 400 tons of gold. This enormous and unprecedented sale implies an illegal conspiracy of sellers intent on rigging the market or action by the Federal Reserve through its agents, the BTBF that are the bullion banks.
The enormous sales of naked shorts drove down the gold price, triggering stop-loss orders and margin calls. The attack continued on Monday, April 15, and has continued since.
Before going further, note that there are position limits imposed on the number of contracts that traders can sell at one time. The 124 tons figure would have required 14 traders with no open interest on the exchange to sell all together in the same few minutes 40,000 futures contracts. The likelihood of so many traders deciding to short at the same moment at the maximum permitted is not believable. This was an attack ordered by the Federal Reserve, which is why there is no investigation of the illegality.
Note also that no seller that wanted out of a position would give himself a low price by dumping an enormous amount all at once unless the goal was not profit but to smash the bullion price.
Since the April 12-15 attack on the gold price, subsequent attacks have occurred at 2pm Hong Kong time and 2 am New York time. At this time activity is light, waiting on London to begin operating. As William S.Kaye has observed, no entity concerned about profits would choose this time to sell 20,000 to 30,000 futures contracts, but this is what has been happening.
Who can be unconcerned with losing money in this way? Only a central bank that can print it.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Roberts isn’t the only one accusing the Fed of ordering an attack on gold. Back on April 29 I started off a post with the following April 17 statement from Ambrose Evans-Prtichard, international business editor over at The Telegraph (UK):
My view is that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan ‘caused’ the gold crash. The rest is noise…
The world is still in a contained depression. Sliding commodities tell us global money is if anything too tight. ‘There is a threat of deflation almost everywhere. A lot of central banks will have to follow the Bank of Japan, whatever they say now,’ said Lars Christensen form Danske Bank.
The era of money printing is young yet. Gold will have its day again.
You can read the entire Roberts’ piece on the Institute for Political Economy’s website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas Cut Gold Price Forecasts
Some major global financial institutions aren’t very bullish on gold these days. First, there’s the German banking and financial services company Deutsche Bank. According to a Reuters piece picked up on The Economic Times (India) website earlier today:
Deutsche Bank cut its forecast for gold prices in 2013, 2014 and 2015 on Friday, citing the sharp price correction in gold last month and upgrades to its US dollar outlook.
The bank lowered its 2013 gold outlook 6 percent to $1,533 from $1,637. It downgraded its 2014 gold outlook by 17 percent to $1,500 and its 2015 gold outlook by 25 percent to $1,450.
On November 14, 2012, I blogged:
Back in December of last year, Deutsche Bank predicted that gold prices would hit $2,000 an ounce in the second half of 2012.
The highest London P.M. gold spot price recorded last year turned out to be only $1,791.75.
The third largest bank in the world, BNP Paribas, isn’t too hot about precious metals’ prospects in the near-term either. Here’s what the Dow Jones Newswires had to say about the Paris-headquartered banking group and gold on the FOX Business website Thursday:
BNP Paribas Friday cut its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, but said it expects the metal to trade back above $1,600/oz in six months.
The bank now sees gold averaging $1,580 a troy ounce this year, down 5% on its previous forecast. In 2014, it expects gold to average $1,520/oz, also down 5% on its earlier outlook.
In my opinion, the fundamentals supporting higher gold prices appear intact.
Which they have for quite some time now.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Sources:
“Deutsche Bank cuts 2013 outlook for gold prices.” Reuters. 10 May 2013. (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/deutsche-bank-cuts-2013-outlook-for-gold-prices/articleshow/19989072.cms). 10 May 2013.
“BNP Paribas Cuts Gold Outlook, But Sees $1,600/oz Retaken in 6 Months.” Dow Jones Newswires. 10 May 2013. (http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/05/10/bnp-paribas-cuts-gold-outlook-but-sees-1600oz-retaken-in-6-months/). 10 May 2013.
Peter Schiff: ‘Gold Bears Are Making Much Ado About Nothing’
There’s been quite a bit of talk these past couple of years about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy due to an economic recovery finally arriving that I’m going to have to agree with “crash prophet” and Euro Pacific Capital CEO/Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on this.
The Fed is bluffing.
Unless Fed officials are now starting to worry that growing their balance sheet is not in their best interest anymore.
Schiff, who correctly-called the 2008 global economic crisis, wrote in the March issue of his Gold Letter that was published Friday:
Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: “We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off.” What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed’s unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.
Growing rumors last month of a potential “tightening” of monetary policy – seemingly confirmed by the Fed minutes released on Feb. 20th – have spooked the precious metals markets, leading to a 5.8% correction in gold and 10.2% in silver.
However, these fears are preposterous on two counts…
You can read the entire article (“The Fed’s Tightening Pipe Dream”) on the Euro Pacific Precious Metals website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Repeat Of The 1992 Los Angeles Riots Coming This Summer?
Following up on last night’s post abut urban warfare training exercises in U.S. cities, I noted how one Midwest-based writer recently claimed that an unnamed “high-ranking, military source” in the Department of Homeland Security says the military exercises, conducted jointly with local law enforcement, are being conducted to desensitize urban dwellers in preparation for mass civil unrest in American cities. This is supposedly being done out of fear a currency devaluation, astronomical gas prices, and resistance to more gun “control” which will combine to produce civil strife in America’s urban areas this summer.
Like I wrote yesterday, “take it or leave it” concerning the credibility of this claim. But let’s just suppose for an instant the above is true and these really are the reasons for the exercises.
If that’s the case, then the powers-that-be may have overlooked one more potential flashpoint:
The trial of George Zimmerman in the shooting death of Trayvon Martin that’s set to begin on June 10.
Yamiche Alcindor reported on the USA TODAY website on February 5:
Trayvon Martin would have turned 18 Tuesday.
Instead, lawyers for George Zimmerman, the man accused of murdering the teen, and prosecutors were back in court, where a judge denied a motion to delay the June 10 trial date and heard arguments about evidence…
In court Tuesday, Judge Debra Nelson denied a motion by Zimmerman lawyer Mark O’Mara to delay the trial date. O’Mara argued that the prosecution has been slow to turn over evidence and that he does not have enough time to prepare his case…
“We’re four months away from trial,” Nelson said. “The court has no reason to continue the case.”
If George Zimmerman is found innocent of the teen’s death, will one or more American urban centers experience rioting not unlike what took place in Los Angeles in 1992 in the wake of the Rodney King trial verdicts?
By itself, I think it’s possible. In conjunction with other miseries, even more so.
And just to remind everyone of just how bad the 1992 Los Angeles riots really were:
• 53 deaths
• 2,000 injured
• 3,600 fires
• 1,100 buildings destroyed
• Up to $1 billion in material losses
And don’t forget the looting…
“1992 LA Riots – Defenseless Store Owner Confront Rioters with Hammer”
YouTube Video
Let justice take its course, but it might be a good idea to keep an eye on that trial and when it’s going to be wrapping up. Especially for the city-dwellers out there.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Source:
Alcindor, Yamiche. “Judge denies request for delay in Zimmerman trial.” USA TODAY. 5 Feb. 2013. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/02/05/trayvon-martin-hearing-birthday/1892419/). 23 Feb. 2013.
Urban Warfare Training Exercises To Desensitize, Prepare For Mass Civil Unrest In Cities?
The City of Chicago is providing support for a routine military training exercise in and around the Chicagoland area on April 16 -19. This routine training is conducted by military personnel in cities across the country, designed to ensure the military’s ability to operate in urban environments as service members meet mandatory training certification requirements and prepare for upcoming overseas deployments.
The training sites have been carefully selected to minimize the impact on the daily routine of residents.
The training is not open to the public.
-City of Chicago Office of Emergency Management and Communications (OEMC), April 16, 2012
Back when I blogged about Chicago hosting an urban warfare training exercise for U.S. military personnel in April 2012, I mentioned other major American cities had experienced something similar: Boston (July 2011) and Los Angeles (January 2012).
Since that time, countless other municipalities have hosted this training.
However, in that April 16 post I pointed out the U.S. military was already busy developing its urban warfare training resources, including the construction of mock cities. I wrote:
Now, I’ve heard the U.S. military has been busy developing its urban warfare training program for some time already. Spencer Ackerman wrote in the Wired.com blog Danger Room back on January 18, 2011:
American soldiers spent seven years patrolling the urban neighborhoods of Iraq; its troops battled insurgents there block-by-block and house-by-house. Now that the Army is getting out of Iraq, it wants to make sure its urban combat skills don’t wither away. So it today it gave Lockheed Martin a contract worth up to $287 million to build Urban Operations Training Systems — essentially, giant simulation facilities and modules to help soldiers get ready for life in the big, bad city.
Versions of those training systems can be as simple as shipping containers tricked out to resemble multi-story houses and arranged in village formations, so soldiers can practice how to seize a building without causing needless damage. The Army’s got an entire 1000-acre facility in Indiana it uses to train soldiers in urban combat.
As for the Marines? From the CBS Channel 2 (Los Angeles) website on January 25, 2011:
A 1,560-building mock city has risen in the Southern California desert.
The $170 million Marine Corps urban training center at the Twentynine Palms military base, some 130 miles northeast of Los Angeles, is roughly the size of San Diego.
The Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center facility uses mock cities and role players to prepare Marines and sailors for urban terrain missions.
If our armed forces already have such resources, what’s with the urban warfare training in American cities then?
I added this about the Chicago training at the time:
I wonder if the exercise isn’t related to counter-terrorism.
Responding to an “American Mumbai” or dirty-bomb attack, perhaps?
However, these days, a Midwest-based writer and decorated Navy veteran is claiming that an unnamed “high-ranking, military source” in the Department of Homeland Security says the military exercises, conducted jointly with local law enforcement, are being conducted to desensitize urban dwellers in preparation for mass civil unrest in American cities. David Bard wrote on “progressive liberal” sociopolitical commentary blog The Allegiant on February 6:
I spoke with a high-ranking, military source in DHS. Preferring to remain unnamed for obvious reasons, he told me, “DHS and DOD are conducting desensitizing exercises all across the U.S.,” he paused, then added, “we’re being prepared for mass civil unrest in major U.S. cities. DOD will be expected to help – when we’re requested.”
I asked if there was a timeline for expecting civil unrest in our cities and why should we expect it to begin with. I was told that there were many reasons, but that the continued devaluation of our currency, the predicted history-setting prices for gasoline this summer and the continued gun control debate are forming a perfect storm of civil discontent. When this storm hits, it will most assuredly produce mass casualties. When does DHS expect this to happen? This summer.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
I can’t speak for Mr. Bard’s credibility, so “take it or leave it” as it concerns this explanation for the urban warfare training.
Still, I’ve heard similar talk about the purpose being to prepare for civil strife since I first blogged about those exercises in spring of last year.
You can read Bard’s entire piece here on The Allegiant. Disturbing stuff.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Ackerman, Spencer. “Lockheed Gets Big Bucks to Prep Soldiers for Urban War.” Danger Room. 18 Jan. 2011. (http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/01/lockheed-gets-big-bucks-to-prep-soldiers-in-urban-war/). 22 Feb. 2013.
“$170M Mock City Built For Marine Training In Twentynine Palms” CBS Channel 2 (Los Angeles). 25 Jan. 2011. (http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/01/25/170m-mock-city-built-for-marine-training-in-twentynine-palms/). 22 Feb. 2013.
Behold The Golden Bear: Russia Now World’s Biggest Gold Buyer
For years I’ve heard the term “Russian Bear” being used to describe Russia and its might.
For example, “NATO better not put too many missiles in Eastern Europe, or they’re going to anger the Russian Bear.”
After reading this morning about Russia acquiring literally tons of gold over the last ten years, perhaps they should be referred to as the “Golden Bear” going forward.
Scott Rose and Olga Tanas reported on the Bloomberg website this morning:
When Vladimir Putin says the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly, he’s not just talking. He’s betting on it.
Not only has Putin made Russia the world’s largest oil producer, he’s also made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570 metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than runner-up China, according to IMF data compiled by Bloomberg. The added gold is also almost triple the weight of the Statue of Liberty.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
I’m starting to see what legendary investor Jim Rogers was getting at regarding Russia.
While a number of “developed” countries are selling the precious metal these days- including economically-troubled France, Portugal, and Spain- “developing” nations are acquiring it with a fervor. Rose and Tanas added:
Quantitative easing by major economies to support financial asset prices is driving demand for gold in the emerging world, said Marcus Grubb, head of investment research at the World Gold Council. Before the crisis, central banks were net sellers of 400 to 500 tons a year. Now, led by Russia and China, they’re net buyers by about 450 tons, Grubb said by phone from London, where his industry group is based…
“That’s a very significant switch, and obviously a very positive one for the gold market,” Grubb said.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
Meanwhile, the price of paper gold is taking a hit this morning. Barbara Kollmeyer and Myra Saefong reported this morning on the MarketWatch website:
G-7 nations could release a statement this week reaffirming a commitment to “market-determined” exchange rates, responding to heated talk about a currency war…
The Group of 20 nations will meet later in the week, with currencies expected to be at the top of the agenda.
As gold has benefitted from currency devaluations, traders are wary of these developments.
In addition, light volumes due to Asia’s observance of the Lunar New Year and a lack of economic data being released today are fueling downward pressure on the gold price.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Rose, Scott and Tanas, Olga. “Putin Turns Black Gold to Bullion as Russia Outbuys World.” Bloomberg.com. 11 Feb. 2013. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-10/putin-turns-black-gold-into-bullion-as-russia-out-buys-world.html). 11 Feb. 2013.
Kollmeyer, Barbara and Saefong, Myra. “Gold hit on worry of possible G-7 currency salvo.” MarketWatch. 11 Feb. 2013. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-edges-higher-as-dollar-weakens-2013-02-10). 11 Feb. 2013.
Peter Schiff: Stock Market Rally ‘An Illusion’
Marc Faber. Jim Rogers. Peter Schiff.
Three “crash prophets” who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis in the United States.
I’ve already blogged today about what Faber and Rogers think of rising U.S. stock prices- and what they suspect is behind it.
How about Schiff, the CEO/Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC?
From his February 1 entry on the The Schiff Report YouTube video blog:
Well the Dow Jones closed above 14,000 today. That’s something it hasn’t done since November 2007. Of course, the media is going to make a big deal about Dow 14,000, the economy is coming back, the markets are coming back.
But, of course, all of this is an illusion created by inflation.
When you debase your currency- when you have inflated dollars that you use to measure stock prices- of course stock prices are going to go up. The price of everything is going up. The government denies there’s inflation. But prices prove it. As if we even need that. The money supply going up is the sheer definition of inflation. And we’re creating a lot of money. And prices are responding by rising, and stock prices are no exception.
But remember, the last time the Dow Jones was at 14,000 back in ’07, gold was about $700 an ounce. Today, gold’s about $1,600 an ounce. So the Dow would have to double from here, and it still wouldn’t be where it was in terms of real money five-and-a-half years ago.
So this rally is an illusion.
But the people on Wall Street don’t even want to acknowledge that.
And going forward? Schiff pointed out:
We’re already at 0 percent interest rates, we’re already at 8 percent unemployment- 14 percent if you use the U-6 number. And that’s as good as it gets during a recovery. And now we’re already trending down.
And I think if the Federal Reserve wants to slow down the rise in interest rates- which we know it does- it’s going to have to accelerate the QE. I don’t think $85 billion of money printing is enough to keep interest rates from rising. And so they’re going to have to print even more. That means the dollar is going lower. Commodity prices going higher. Looks what’s happened to oil prices- they’re almost at $98 a barrel. Look at Brent- Brent Crude is really up. It’s almost at a $20 premium now over North Sea. Gold prices have been stable, but I think gold’s about to take off. I think on Wall Street they’re rationalizing. They’re selling gold and selling gold stocks because they claim that the crisis is over, there’s nothing to worry about anymore, Europe isn’t falling apart, the U.S. economy is getting better, so there’s no reason to own gold. And so you sell gold and you sell your gold stocks. But they don’t understand. People weren’t buying gold because of the European crisis or because of even the U.S. financial crisis. They were buying gold long before those crises began. Look at how gold was doing from 2000 to 2007, 2008. It did better before the crisis than it did during the crisis because the real crisis that worries the gold buyer is a currency crisis. People aren’t buying gold because they’re worried about political uncertainty. They’re buying gold because the politicians are printing too much money. Well, the cheap money policies that were in place prior to the 2008 financial crisis are still here, only, it’s worse. It’s more excessive. The monetary policy is easier. Rates are lower. Central banks are printing money even faster. So, instead of there being no more reasons to buy gold, the reasons have never been better. There have never been more reasons to buy gold, it’s just that Wall Street doesn’t understand this yet. But they will.
“Dow 14,000, GDP, Jobs, Fed, inflation, treasuries, & gold.”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Bill O’Reilly Warns ‘U.S. Dollar Will Collapse’
“If the Feds do not stop the wild spending, and do not reform Medicare and Social Security, the U.S. dollar will collapse. That means that all of our savings, all of our investments, our homes, and everything else, will blow up before our eyes.”
-Political commentator Bill O’Reilly, on the January 18, 2013, installment of The O’Reilly Factor on FOX News
“Bill O’Reilly: The U.S. Dollar will Collapse”
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
John Rubino Warns The Big Collapse Is Still Ahead Of Us
There’s a lot of poseurs out there in the financial community these days who claim to have correctly-predicted the global economic crisis that really reared its ugly head by the autumn of 2008. Whatever. One of the authentic “crash prophets,” who I used to talk about from time to time in my old blog, is John Rubino. Shortly after its publication in 2004, I picked up a copy of Rubino’s The coming collapse of the dollar–and how to profit from it from my local library. The book, which was co-authored with James Turk of GoldMoney-fame, was truly an eye-opener for me. And I’ve been fortunate enough to come across a recent interview with Rubino on the Gold Silver Worlds website.
Like me, John Rubino thinks the real financial crash is still dead-ahead.
From the Gold Silver Worlds piece:
John Rubino published his book in 2004 together with James Turk from GoldMoney. The main theme of the book was that governments in the US lost control over their spending and borrowing, which would ultimately result in some sort of catastrophic crisis. Debt accumulation would continue until some kind of crisis, internally or globally, would force to stop this trend. Most of the predictions have come true, but John Rubino stresses that the 2008 crisis was not the final collapse. He is convinced that the big collapse is still ahead of us.
Rubino went on to talk about where we stand today, why the path to the final collapse has been slowed down, how the next collapse will play out, trends for 2013, and gold and silver for safely storing one’s wealth.
It’s a great read, and it’s nice to hear what John Rubino has to say after his initial warnings in 2004.
The entire article can be found on the Gold Silver Worlds website here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Jim Rogers: ‘I Hope We All Survive 2013’
“We’ve had very difficult times. We’re going to continue to have difficult times. You better makes sure you know what you’re doing.”
-Jim Rogers, in a December 23 Kitco News interview
Well-known investor Jim Rogers spoke to Daniela Cambone of Kitco News back on December 23 about his investment outlook for 2013. The former partner of George Soros in the Quantum Fund discussed gold and currencies, among other things.
When Cambone asked Rogers if he was buying gold now, Rogers replied:
No, I am not buying gold. I am not selling gold. I am sitting and watching it.
The Singapore-based investor added that while he does own some U.S. dollars, he owns more Swiss Francs than any other currency these days.
“Jim Rogers’ Gold Outlook for 2013”
YouTube Video
While wrapping up the interview, Jim Rogers told viewers:
I hope we all survive 2013.
That comment reminds me of something I blogged back on October 18:
Famous investor Jim Rogers appeared on the Yahoo! Finance show Breakout yesterday, and warned viewers of the following:
It’s going to get worse next year. 2013, 2014, you should be very worried and you should prepare yourself.
Yikes! I don’t think I’ve ever heard the Singapore-based investor ever mutter anything like “prepare yourself” before.
And I’ve been following him religiously for some years now.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (http://www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
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