unemployment rates

Chicago Ties Birmingham, Alabama, For Highest Jobless Rate Among Large Metro Areas In December

This morning the U.S. Department of Labor handed the Chicago metropolitan area some bad news on the employment front. From a Bureau of Labor Statistics news release this morning entitled “Metropolitan Area Employment And Unemployment- December 2016”:

Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, Mass.-N.H., had the lowest unemployment rate in December, 2.5 percent, followed by Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo., 2.6 percent, and Salt Lake City, Utah, 2.7 percent. Birmingham-Hoover, Ala., and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis., had the highest jobless rates among the large areas, 5.4 percent each.

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Worrisome.

You can read the entire BLS news release here (.pdf format).

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Wednesday, February 1st, 2017 Business, Employment, Government Comments Off on Chicago Ties Birmingham, Alabama, For Highest Jobless Rate Among Large Metro Areas In December

Donald Trump Inheriting A ‘Poisoned Chalice’?

I’ve had this suspicion for some time now that whoever won the 2016 U.S. presidential election is very likely inheriting a “poisoned chalice.”

When I launched Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street,” on Memorial Day weekend 2007, I started warning readers of a coming U.S. financial collapse.

After moving on to Survival And Prosperity in 2010, I came to believe the economy/larger financial system had already entered a long, drawn-out descent before the eventual crash.

That downward trajectory would be punctuated by crises like what reared its ugly head in the autumn of 2008.

Financial types were quick to label the recession at the end of last decade as the “Great Recession.”

This “nattering nabob of negativity” thinks it’s only a matter of time before a “Greater Recession” strikes, fueled by Washington and the Fed “kicking the can down the road” and having too few bullets left when that “road” inevitably runs out.

President-elect Trump is also aware of the possibility of such economic upheaval.

Bob Woodward and Robert Costa reported on The Washington Post website back on April 2, 2016:

Donald Trump said in an interview that economic conditions are so perilous that the country is headed for a “very massive recession” and that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in the stock market, embracing a distinctly gloomy view of the economy that counters mainstream economic forecasts…

Trump has for months contended that the U.S. economy is in trouble because of what he sees as an overvalued stock market, but his view has grown more pessimistic of late and he is now bearish on investing, to the point of warning Americans against doing so.

“I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble,” Trump said. He made clear that he was not specifying a sector of the economy but the economy at large and asserted that more bullish forecasts were based on skewed employment numbers and an inflated stock market.

“First of all, we’re not at 5 percent unemployment. We’re at a number that’s probably into the twenties if you look at the real number,” Trump said. “That was a number that was devised, statistically devised to make politicians- and, in particular, presidents — look good. And I wouldn’t be getting the kind of massive crowds that I’m getting if the number was a real number.”

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Yet Trump, as President-elect of the United States, chooses to accept the potential “poisoned chalice,” from which he might be forced to drink from during his tenure in the Oval Office as the current economic expansion grows long in the tooth.

Consider the following from Jeffrey Sparshott in The Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog this morning:

Donald Trump is poised to inherit one of the longest-lived economic expansions since the World War II era. Barring any sudden shock or sudden acceleration, the president-elect will also take office during the weakest

The economy has been growing for more than seven years, ranking the expansion the fourth-longest since 1949 (when quarterly data became available). If economic expansion continues through Mr. Trump’s first term, it will be the longest.

While gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic of output, is advancing, it’s been at the slowest rate on record for an expansion

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

I’d like to think Donald Trump and the Republicans could turn this ship around and avert economic disaster.

I, for one, would only be too happy to be proven wrong about my prediction of a “Greater Recession” and eventual collapse.

But I fear the damage may already be done.

So much so that the incoming White House might want to level with the American people about what might be in store for them from an economic standpoint.

Otherwise, the public will have less of a fighting chance of weathering the financial storm should it hit.

Not to mention opponents of a Trump administration will try hard to pin the blame on them for a painful event previous administrations played a big part in creating.

One need only look at Illinois where Republican Governor Bruce Rauner (only 22 months in office) is facing the same baseless charges for decades of mismanagement perpetrated by those across the political aisle.

President-elect Trump has his work cut out for him as the economy is concerned. The billionaire businessman seems to be up for the challenge, and America will know soon enough if he can pull off yet another amazing feat.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Costa, Robert and Woodward, Bob. “In a revealing interview, Trump predicts a ‘massive recession’ but intends to eliminate the national debt in 8 years.” The Washington Post. 2 Apr. 2016. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-turmoil-or-triumph-donald-trump-stands-alone/2016/04/02/8c0619b6-f8d6-11e5-a3ce-f06b5ba21f33_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumppresidency-7pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory). 11 Nov. 2016.

Sparshott, Jeffrey. “The U.S. Economy President Donald Trump Will Inherit, in 11 Charts.” Real Time Economics. 11 Nov. 2016. (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/11/11/the-u-s-economy-president-donald-trump-will-inherit-in-11-charts/). 11 Nov. 2016.

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Friday, November 11th, 2016 Bubbles, Employment, Federal Reserve, Fiscal Policy, GDP, Government, Investing, Monetary Policy, Political Parties, Preparedness, Recession, Recovery, Stocks Comments Off on Donald Trump Inheriting A ‘Poisoned Chalice’?

Peter Schiff: What’s Suppressing The Price Of Gold

The second installment of Peter Schiff’s Gold Videocast for 2015 is out on YouTube. And Euro Pacific Capital’s Schiff shared his thoughts about what’s been suppressing the price of gold these days. He told viewers:

ObamaCare forces employers to provide insurance for full-time employees. As a result, employers are hiring more part-time workers than they normally would. And that is substantially influencing these numbers. In fact, the real reason that we have such a low unemployment rate and we’re creating so many jobs, is because people are in effect sharing their job. We have a job sharing program…

Traders are ignoring all of the bad economic data that they should be focusing on, and instead just remaining fixated on the job numbers. And I think they are in position to be blindsided when the economy turns around…

So for now, it’s the false belief that the economy is strong, and that the Fed is going to raise rates- based on a misunderstanding of what the jobs’ numbers really mean- that is keeping a lid on the price of gold.

“False belief” plays an additional role in lower gold prices at this time, says Schiff. He added:

One other thing that is happening that should be lifting the prices of gold which is inflationary monetary policies all over the world. You know, more and more central banks are reducing their interest rates, launching their QE programs. Gold prices are rising in terms of those currencies. But the fact that everybody believes the dollar, the U.S. is going to be the lone holdout in the easy money parade- that is what’s keeping gold prices from really going ballistic…

I think we’re going to be leading that parade. Not only are we not going to raise interest rates or not raise them substantially- maybe we get a trivial rate hike although even there I think it’s more likely that we won’t. But we are going to be launching a new QE program- the Mother Of All QEs…

And when the markets realize this, then it’s going to be like taking the lid off the pressure cooker when it comes to the price of gold. And it’s going to be rising sharply. In the meantime, I continue to encourage people to accumulate as much physical gold and silver as they can before the rest of the financial community wakes up to this reality, and they’re rushing to buy these metals at much higher prices.


“Gold Videocast: America’s New ‘Job-Sharing’ Economy”
YouTube Video

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)

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Tuesday, February 17th, 2015 Commodities, Crash Prophets, Currencies, Employment, Health, Inflation, Interest Rates, Investing, Monetary Policy, Stimulus Comments Off on Peter Schiff: What’s Suppressing The Price Of Gold

Chicago-Area Unemployment Rate Rises To 9.7 Percent In July

There was good and bad news yesterday for the Chicago metro area concerning employment. First, the good. From a Thursday news release on the Illinois Department of Employment Security website concerning jobs and payrolls in July 2013:

Jobs increased in four metros and declined in eight. Largest increases: Champaign-Urbana (+2.4 percent, +2,400), Chicago-Joliet-Naperville (+1.9 percent, +69,800), and Kankakee-Bradley (+0.5 percent, +200). Industry sectors increasing in the most metros: Leisure and Hospitality (eight of 12) and Educational and Health Services (seven of 12).

69,000 more jobs in July for the Chicago area compared to a year ago. Good to hear.

And the bad? Also from that release:

July local unemployment rates fell in seven of 12 metro areas, according to preliminary data released today by the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES). Not seasonally adjusted data compares July 2013 to July 2012. Largest decreases: Metro East ( 1.0 point to 8.6 percent), Lake County (-0.4 to 8.4 percent) and Rockford ( 0.3 to 11.4 percent). Largest increases: Decatur (+1.9 points to 13.2 percent), Peoria (+1.4 to 9.4 percent), Danville (+1.2 to 11.8 percent) and Chicago-Joliet-Naperville (+0.3 to 9.7 percent).

The Chicagoland unemployment rate increased .3 percent last month to 9.7 percent when compared to July 2012. Not so good.

And even though local unemployment rates fell in a number of metro areas across the “Land of Lincoln” last month, when Illinois was matched up against the other 50 states, it had the second highest unemployment rate in the country- 9.2 percent– after Nevada (9.5 percent).

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics website, 8 states had an unemployment rate under 5 percent last month – Iowa (4.8 percent), Utah, Vermont, Wyoming (all 4.6 percent), Hawaii (4.5 percent), Nebraska (4.2 percent), South Dakota (3.9 percent), and North Dakota (3.0 percent)

Neighbors Wisconsin and Indiana came in at numbers 20 (6.8 percent) and 39 (8.4 percent), respectively.

You can read the entire IDES new release on their website here.

You can view the July 2012 unemployment rates for all 50 states on the BLS website here.

By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

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Friday, August 23rd, 2013 Employment Comments Off on Chicago-Area Unemployment Rate Rises To 9.7 Percent In July
Survival And Prosperity
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Christopher E. Hill, Editor

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